Can Guardians Score Enough Runs To Win In October?

The prevailing thought for playoff success for the Cleveland Guardians is to get the lead after five innings and use their greatest strength, their bullpen to hold off the opponents and get the win.

Our biggest concern heading into Saturday’s Game 1 of the American League Division Series? Can they get a lead?

Before the All-Star break, the Guardians have a pretty good offense, ranking 5th in the AL in runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. When play resumed after the Midsummer Classic, it was a different story.

Since then, the Guardians ranked 11th in the league in runs scored, averaging a full run less than before the break at 3.8 per game.

The only Cleveland player with an OPS of over 800 in the second half is of course Jose Ramirez at 916 and Kyle Manzardo who had just 63 at bats. The perennial all-star batted .291 with 16 HR and 41 RBI in that period.

Only three hitters were even over 700, and of those only Josh Naylor would be considered an everyday player, and he batted just .240 with nine homers (717 OPS). The other two were David Fry (723 OPS) and Jhonkensy Noel (734) and the latter has gone 4 for his last 43 over the last month.

Keep in mind the league average OPS is 703, so the only everyday players above league average are Ramirez and Naylor.

In terms of batting average, the league average is .240 and in on base percentage it is .309.

Once again, Ramirez is getting on base at a .350 clip since the middle of July and Manzardo is getting on a third of his plate appearances in his small sample size. The only other regulars over league average are Steven Kwan (.316), Josh Naylor (.311), and Will Brennan also at .311.

Outside of the red-hot Tigers, who surged in August and September, the Guardians are the worst offensive team in the AL section of the playoffs, scoring 4.4 runs per game. Detroit is at 4.21, but we’ve already said how the Cleveland attack has waned since the first three months of the season.

And although Ramirez has been his usual incredible self, in the playoffs, most teams are not going to pitch to him in any situation where he can do damage, putting pressure on the elder Naylor and Lane Thomas, who will probably hit 5th.

Thomas had a pretty good September with a 770 OPS, but still struck out at a 32% clip in the last month.

Couple this with a starting rotation without a real ace (Tanner Bibee isn’t in the class of a Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, or Corbin Burnes just yet), and you have to wonder can the formula laid out above work?

Let’s say the Guardians’ starter goes five innings and gives up two runs, can we be confident the bats will provide the three runs needed to hand the game over to the bullpen?

Look, it’s the post-season and anything can happen. Hopefully the offense gets back to the levels attained before the first of July, when the Guardians were 52-30 and were scoring almost five runs a night.

Most likely, it will be a struggle to put runs on the scoreboard, which means taking advantage of the opportunities the Guardians will get. We will see starting on Saturday.

Guards Need To Remember How They Got Here Offensively

The post-All-Star part of the schedule did not treat the Cleveland Guardians any better than it did before the break came. Steven Vogt is going through something for the first time as a big-league manager. A streak where nothing is going right.

That’s how you have a period where your team has lost 14 of the last 22.

A couple of weeks ago, the Guards were scoring runs, but the starting pitching simply wasn’t giving the team a chance to win. Not enough length, which has been the case most of the season, and then they were giving up runs early, putting the offense in a tough spot.

A visit to Tampa cured the pitching staff. They still weren’t giving Vogt much length, but they were keeping the opponent off the scoreboard. But now the offense has taken a siesta, a deep sleep.

In their last 11 games, the Guardians have been shutout four times, and scored one run twice. In Friday’s win over San Diego to open the second half slate, Cleveland scored one run in the first seven innings before putting up six in the eighth to seal the game.

Even with that seven run effort and scoring nine in one of the games vs. Detroit, the Guardians have scored just 28 runs in those 11 contests, an average of 2.5 runs per night for the mathematically challenged.

It’s tough to win doing that.

The team seems to have gotten away from what made them successful early on. A lot of solid contact and aggressive base running.

Daniel Schneemann is getting a lot of playing time and has a 30% strikeout rate. Jhonkensy Noel was getting at bats (though that has tapered as of late) and he fans 40% of the time.

Note both players have limited at bats.

We would also note that Angel Martinez is been getting regular at bats and he whiffs just 14.9% of the time.

The players who seems to have lost at bats are Tyler Freeman (14.9% K rate) and Brayan Rocchio, who has a 19% strikeout rate. And the latter is by far the best glove the team has at shortstop.

Schneemann has been used there recently and has made a number of defensive mistakes.

They also have seemed to abandon the stolen base, pilfering only 8 during the month of July and five of those came in two games. We know, we know, it is difficult to steal first and that’s been a big problem as of late, not getting runners on, but when they do get on, it seems like there isn’t a lot of aggressiveness.

It’s only three games into post break play, but the Guardians need something to get them going again. Obviously, the offense centers around Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and Josh Naylor, but literally, no one else is doing anything either.

Andres Gimenez has been in a hitting funk over the last month. Because of David Fry’s elbow issue, it has forced more at bats for Austin Hedges, and that’s not going to help the offense.

Maybe it’s time to go back to what got the Guardians in first place. Put the ball in play and put pressure on defenses to make plays.

It wasn’t broke, but the Guardians tried to fix it. Now is the time to get back to the roots of the ’24 season.

Guardians Hit Their First Rough Patch Of The Season

The Cleveland Guardians have hit their first rough patch of the season. Even though they won the series at Progressive Field against the lowly White Sox, starting with the last game of the Baltimore series, they have lost six of their last ten games.

They still have a six-game lead in the AL Central over Minnesota, but it would be nice to regain some momentum heading into the All-Star break, and the Guards look like a team that could really use the four days off.

Under Steven Vogt, the Guardians have been a team all year that has mixed and matched in terms of the starting lineup, looking for the best way to beat that day’s starting pitcher.

And it worked, as Cleveland was baseball’s surprise team.

However, the organization seems to be still in tryout camp mode, shuffling players from Columbus to Cleveland, appearing to search for players like a team floundering in the standings does.

The roster changes aren’t based on a rash of injuries either. The only Cleveland player currently on the injured list is Will Brennan. Since Steven Kwan went on the IL with his hamstring injury, we have seen Kyle Manzardo, Johnathan Rodriguez, Daniel Schneemann, Jhonkensy Noel, Jose Tena, and Angel Martinez getting at bats at the big-league level, all with varying success.

From here, it looks like what we feel is a weakness in the organization, the inability to make decisions on players.

Vogt uses these players at these positions on an everyday basis: 1B Josh Naylor, 2B Andres Gimenez, 3B Jose Ramirez, LF Steven Kwan. With David Fry’s injured elbow, he has become the DH most days, with Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges behind the plate.

Brayan Rocchio is the shortstop most of the time, but we have seen Schneemann there, as well as the organization’s hope, Gabriel Arias, despite Rocchio’s defensive prowess at the games most important defensive spot.

Tyler Freeman did a solid job defensively in centerfield most of the year and it was revealed yesterday he is battling a wrist problem, and while he hasn’t hit like we thought, he’s held his own. His 653 OPS is better than Rocchio’s and comparable to Gimenez.

We get the front office is probably trying to take a look at as many players as they can before the trading deadline at the end of the month, but when the team is in a bit of a downturn, that should be secondary.

As for Arias, at what point is the organization going to realize he just isn’t a good hitter right now? He went 6 for 11 vs. the Orioles, part of a stretch where he went 8 for 19. Since then? 0 for 12 with six strikeouts.

The bullpen is also starting to leak some oil, with the lack of innings from the starting rotation perhaps starting to take its toll, especially with some of the younger arms.

Veteran Scott Barlow has emerged as the most reliable arm out of the ‘pen of late, allowing just two earned runs since June 1st. Cleveland still has four of the top 11 pitchers in the American League in terms of appearances, and that’s concerning.

Don’t get us wrong, every team in the major leagues goes through slumps or downturns, and the Guards are no exception. Again, we are sure Vogt, and the front office are hoping the club rights itself before the Mid-Summer Classic in Texas next week.

And they need to address the starting pitching…

Players Guardians Wanted To Look At Haven’t Shown Much To Date

During the winter and even right before spring training, the message from the Cleveland Guardians’ management was the reason they didn’t sign any veteran hitters was they wanted to look at the organization’s young talent, particularly in the outfield.

Yes, we know it is spring training, and not only that, it’s early in spring training, but it would not nice if a few of these prospects were showing something in the exhibition games.

You have to look at numbers during spring training games with a jaundiced eye. Observers need to be mindful of what pitchers the hitters are facing. Are they big league arms or guys who pitched in AA last year, and have a slim chance of making the squad that comes up north?

And again, it is still early. One of these hitters could go on a tear starting today and play their way onto the 26-man roster and perhaps into the starting lineup opening day in Oakland.

Looking at those young outfielders, none have flashed to date. Estevan Florial, acquired from the Yankees and mentioned more than a few times by Steven Vogt, is off to a miserable start, going just 1 for 13 with 8 strikeouts. He has walked twice.

Johnathan Rodriguez, who played at both AA and AAA last season, belting 29 home runs in total, has started 3 for 15 with one walk and has fanned four times. He has no extra base hits to date.

Jhonkensy Noel, kind of an all or nothing slugger who hit 27 dingers at Columbus in ’23, is 3 for 15 with seven punchouts. He does have two doubles however.

And rule five addition Deyvison De Los Santos, who has to be offered back to Arizona if he does not make the big-league roster, has started 3 for 15, but has only struck out three times.

Our favorite to win the shortstop job, Brayan Rocchio, coming off an excellent winter league season, is 1 for 12 with a walk, but has not struck out. His main competition, Gabriel Arias, who finished the year as the regular, is 3 for 11 and a walk, but has fanned four times, which is a problem for him.

The most impressive young players to date are three top 10 prospects, of which two have little chance to make the team.

The latter duo would be INF Angel Martinez, who has banged out 8 hits in 14 at bats with a walk and two strikeouts. The switch-hitter who will likely play at AAA this year has also pounded two doubles and two homers.

The other is OF Chase DeLauter, who has gone 4 for 8 with a HR in the big league games. The lefty hitter is the Guardians’ 2022 first round pick and will probably start the season at AA Akron.

The last of this trio should have a good shot to make the team, 1B/DH Kyle Manzardo. The left-handed hitter is 4 for 9 with two walks (three whiffs) and a double thus far. Manzardo spent last year at AAA, hitting 17 homers.

Add to this the Guardians traded a big-league starting pitcher to get him, and as we have said before, unless he’s overmatched in camp, he should be on the Opening Day roster.

Again, it’s early. But as the saying goes, you only have one chance to make a first impression. Hopefully, these prospects can get it going sooner than later.

Guardians Need To Score More, Getting Proven Hitters Would Help.

We have started to read various things about what the Cleveland Guardians do for next season. We believe the front office has their ideas of how to get the Guards back in the playoffs next year, and make no mistake, that should be the goal.

This is not a rebuilding season. The Guardians won 92 games a year ago with the youngest roster in the sport. Next year will mark 76 seasons since the franchise has won a world title, and the team’s best player will enter the campaign at 31-years-old.

Offensively, Cleveland has to improve greatly. They rank 27th in all of baseball in runs scored, and that is simply not good enough. To us, barring trades, they have five players who should be fixtures in the lineup: Bo Naylor, Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, and Andres Gimenez.

So, four spots are open and at least two of them have to be filled by solid hitters. And it cannot be guys who they “hope” can be contributors at the plate, they need proven sticks.

And that’s the challenge for the front office.

It would seem Kyle Manzardo, who came over from Tampa at the trade deadline for Aaron Civale, will come to spring training with a job to lose. He hit .256 at Columbus (936 OPS) after coming to the organization, but overall hit .237/.337/464/802 at AAA in 2023.

Manzardo is highly regarded, but cannot be included as a “for sure” in 2024. If he struggles mightily in the spring, we would anticipate he will open the year in the minors.

Nor should anyone whose AAA numbers include OPS under 750 be counted on to be big league regulars. Johnathan Rodriguez had a very good season at the AA and AAA levels this year, hitting .286/.368/.529/897, but has a lot of swing and miss in his game, with 163 whiffs against 59 walks.

Jhonkensy Noel is another who we hear about because he hit 27 home runs and the Guardians need power. However, he hit .220/.303/.420/723 at Columbus. He might hit 20 homers at the big league level if given a chance. He will also make a lot of outs.

What about George Valera, who has been part of the organization’s top prospects for a while now? He hit .211/.343/.375/718 this season.

By contrast, here’s what Bo Naylor did in Columbus before being called up: .254/.393/.498/890.

It is difficult to imagine players doing better in the majors initially than they did in the high minors. We aren’t saying it’s impossible, but…

You also can’t (and the organization won’t) count on young players like Juan Brito and Chase DeLauter, both of whom we have high hopes for.

Brito, a 21-year-old switch-hitter, batted .271/.377/.434/811 across three levels in the minors this season, but he’s had only 20 plate appearances at AAA to date.

DeLauter, last season’s first round pick, is a left-handed hitter, and he only has 28 plate appearances at the AA level. He shows signs of having an elite hit tool, going .355/.417/.528/945 this year in the minors.

Both of these players might be able to contribute at the end of next year, but certainly not at the beginning of the season.

So, the front office is going to have to look for gems in other organizations or free agents who might be interested in one or two year deals. A few years ago, we saw D.J. LeMahieu available after Christmas and suggested Cleveland take a look at him. He posted a 893 OPS that season with the Yankees.

The point is there might be a bargain out there after the initial push, that is, of course assuming the Guardians won’t be spending big cash.

It won’t be easy for Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff. It shouldn’t be. But the “wishing and hoping” method shouldn’t be an option either.

No matter what, they have to figure out how to score more runs.

It’s Time To Start Thinking Baseball, But…

Baseball’s international signing period started this week and is getting all kinds of attention, more than normal.

The signings are very important, to be sure. It’s how the Guardians signed Jose Ramirez, and more recently several of their top prospects, OF George Valera, SS Brayan Rocchio, INF Jose Tena, and power hitter Jhonkensy Noel joined the organization in the same manner.

But it’s getting more publicity this year because it’s the only baseball we can talk about with the lockout imposed by the owners still in place. It doesn’t help that the two sides have met once since the calendar flipped to 2022 either.

Spring training should be starting in less than a month, with the sentence baseball fans love to hear, “Pitchers and catchers report on either February 12th or 13th”. It seems very unlikely that will happen as of today.

The first exhibition game for the Guardians is supposed to be February 26th, but unless negotiations speed up drastically, that’s unlikely as well.

This is the time of year Guards’ fans should be talking about the various position battles around the diamond and do any of the hard throwing young arms out of the bullpen have a shot at making the Opening Day roster.

Instead, the ray of hope that gets fans of the grand ol’ pastime through the winter isn’t there. The hot stove season has been turned off.

Fans should be discussing the make-up of the Guardians’ current 40-man roster, which includes 14 players who have never played even one inning of a major league game. Teams can keep 26 players, so does that mean all of the men who have big league experience are a lock to be at Progressive Field to open the season? We doubt that it does.

What does Terry Francona do about the middle infield? Amed Rosario did very well with the bat last season, but defensively, he’s not an everyday shortstop. So, what does the organization do?

They could move Andres Gimenez back there, and he should be better defensively, or do they give rookie Gabriel Arias, who spent all year at AAA a shot? And then what happens at second base?

Does Rosario go there? Or does the team look at Owen Miller, Yu Chang, or even Ernie Clement, who appears to be more of a utility man at this point.

Or does Rosario get traded to open up the spot for Gimenez or Arias. Or do two of this trio get moved to make room for Rocchio in 2023?

This is the speculation and discussion that aren’t at the forefront right now because there is nothing going on in the game.

We should be talking about the Cleveland outfield, and who will play in the corner spots surrounding Myles Straw? Will Tito lean on the retreads of Bradley Zimmer and Oscar Mercado, or will he entrust the high on base percentages of rookies Steven Kwan and Richie Palacios. The latter had a strong Arizona Fall League season, and could figure in the mix at 2B too.

Will Josh Naylor be ready for Opening Day and will he return to the outfield, or will he move to first base and challenge Bobby Bradley and/or Chang?

Again, spring training is supposed to start very soon. Our guess is when (fingers crossed) an agreement is reached, a flurry of moves will be made by all teams. We don’t believe for a minute that discussions haven’t been going on.

Until then, all baseball fans can do is hope that some intelligence prevails, and baseball can start next month. For people who live in the northeast, it’s one way we use to get through the snow and cold of winter.