Starting Pitching Hasn’t Been The Issue For Tribe

The Cleveland Indians lost the top three members of their starting rotation, so many people might think their 6-9 record after the All Star Game is due to the loss of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac, who has since returned to the rotation.

It’s really not, though. Since the break, Tribe starters have allowed three runs or less nine times, and limited the opponents to four runs in 12 of the 15 contests.

So, the starters are doing their job in terms of keeping the Indians in the game each night.

Cal Quantrill has been the staff leader since the break, making four starts, allowing one run in each of them, totaling 23 innings. He is making a big claim to keep a spot in the rotation when everyone is healthy.

Plesac has built up his workload after coming back from his thumb fracture, and has made three starts, including the longest outing by a starter, 6-2/3 frames against Tampa on July 23rd. He’s pitched 17-2/3 innings in three starts, allowing eight runs.

Both Quantrill and Plesac are giving the team some length, which is easing the burden on an increasingly weary bullpen.

Eli Morgan has made three starts, and although he hasn’t been dominant, he kept Cleveland in games, allowing three runs or less in each and giving the manager at least five innings.

The down side for the rotation has been JC Mejia and Triston McKenzie. The latter had a great outing vs. the Rays (6 IP, 2 ER, 6 K’s), but in his other two outings, he allowed five and six runs in four inning stints. In his last start, Saturday night vs. the White Sox, the control issues that have plagued him all year raised up again, walking three in four frames.

In his previous three starts, McKenzie issued just one free pass.

Mejia continues to show he shouldn’t be starting big league games at this time. He’s made three post all star starts, allowing 13 runs in just under 15 innings. We don’t understand why, even if this experimental point in the season, management keeps running him out there.

It can’t be helping the kid’s confidence.

The problem continues to be the hitting. Outside of Saturday’s 12 run explosion in Chicago, the Tribe hitters have mustered more than four runs just three times. Dating back to June 19th, a span of 35 games, the Indians have scored five or more tallies just nine times, and three of those came in losses.

Keep in mind, the American League average for runs scored per game is 4.56, so five runs is just slightly above the norm. We aren’t asking for much.

It is amazing that even without the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and the guy who was leading the AL in wins when he was injured, the starting pitchers have held up their end of the bargain.

The Indians might be the only team in the majors who could lose three starting pitchers for a lengthy period of time and still not have that area be the weakness of the team.

Keep in mind, the front office added two more starters at the AA level at the trade deadline as well.

It’s pretty clear what needs to be done over the winter. We also might find some solutions with the young players who will get ample playing time the rest of this season.

There is no question this team has struggled over the last six weeks, but since the break, starting pitching hasn’t been the issue.

If Tribe Can Hang In, Will The Front Office Get Some Help?

The Cleveland Indians were thought to have a softer part of their schedule in June. Starting June 4th, the Tribe started a stretch of 24 games in which only the Cubs and Cardinals had winning records.

To date, they probably haven’t fared as well as they would have liked, with an 9-7 record entering play on Monday night at Wrigley Field. However, they have trimmed a game and a half off the AL Central Division lead, and now sit just two games out (just one in the loss column).

And they are also just two games out of the second wild card spot in the American League, meaning they are very much in the post-season race.

As we approach the end of July trading deadline, the question must be asked: Will the Indians be buyers or sellers come the end of next month.

Certainly, much depends on how Terry Francona’s squad does in the brutal stretch coming up as the calendar turns. Leading up to the All Star Game, Cleveland plays four at home against the Astros, three in Tampa, and come back home for four with the Royals.

The Astros have the league’s best record and the Rays are fifth.

Then, coming out of the break, the Tribe has three with Oakland (currently with the 2nd best record in the AL), three more with Houston, and four at home vs. Tampa, with the Cardinals coming to Progressive Field for two more.

If the Indians emerge from that gauntlet still in the race, doesn’t the front office have to do something to help the current roster down the stretch?

Keep in mind, Cleveland has a boatload of prospects in the lower rungs of the minor leagues, some of which will need to be protected for the Rule 5 draft at the end of the Winter Meetings. They cannot protect all of those players, so it could be prudent for the organization to try to move some for some help on the major league roster.

We aren’t suggesting the team should move the organization’s top prospects, Nolan Jones or Tyler Freeman, and really when you look at deadline deals, it is very rare for another organization to part with their top two or three prospects in the system.

The question is will the Cleveland organization be open to such a move?

Yes, we know that has been the recent history. In 2016, they made a move to get Andrew Miller. In 2017, they got Jay Bruce, and in ’18, it was Brad Hand. The following year, the made the deal to get Franmil Reyes and Yasiel Puig, although it cost them Trevor Bauer.

But those teams had higher expectations coming into the season, although the 2021 Tribe were expected to be competitive, we have a feeling the front office figured this team wasn’t going to be this close at this point in the season.

We don’t know that for sure, but the severe payroll reduction points to just that.

If the front office (and we are including ownership in that group) were really interested in getting to the playoffs this season, they would fortify the roster, particularly the starting pitching staff prior to the stretch of games coming up starting July 1st.

There are plenty of teams already making plans for the winter, so why not try to swing a deal for a serviceable starting pitcher? We know JC Mejia and Sam Hentges did well over the weekend (the former after a bad first inning), but remember, the Pirates have one of the game’s worst offenses.

Playing well over the next six weeks would put a lot of pressure on the organization to help the 2021 edition of the Cleveland Indians. And based on how this group of players and their manager have battled to this point, we wouldn’t put it past them.

Tribe Needs Starting Pitching…And Quickly

The news came like a gut punch to Tribe fans all over the nation. Shane Bieber was placed on the IL with the shoulder strain.

The Indians are currently sitting with a 34-28 record and are in second place in the American League Central Division, 5-1/2 games behind the White Sox. They are also just 1-1/2 games behind Houston (although tied in the loss column) for the second wild card spot.

That seems good, doesn’t it.

Until you think about the state of the starting pitching for the Tribe, at least currently. Right now, the rotation consists of Aaron Civale, one of the better starting pitchers in the majors right now. It also included Shane Bieber, but he won’t pick up a baseball for at least two weeks.

Civale currently leads the AL in wins with nine, tied for the Major League lead with the Dodgers’ Julio Urias.

Hopefully, Zach Plesac will return sooner than later, perhaps after the All Star break, and he will give Terry Francona a third starter who should be able to give him at least six solid innings.

As for the rest of the pitchers who have started games recently, the numbers aren’t exactly pretty. The once plentiful supply of good arms in the farm system has appeared to have dried up.

Remember what Francona has always said, when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.

Triston McKenzie has made 10 starts, totally 38-2/3 innings. He has a 6.75 ERA in those frame. The good news? He has struck out 54 hitters. The bad news? He has walked 35.

By the way, that comes to less than 4 innings per start, which is not good.

Left-hander Sam Hentges has made four starts, with a 8.56 ERA in 13-2/3 innings. That’s an average of 3-1/3 frames per start.

Another youngster (McKenzie is just 23, Hentges just 24), 24-year-old JC Mejia, has made three starts. His first was pretty good, going three scoreless innings at Baltimore as the Indians were getting him stretched out. In his second, he didn’t make it out of the first inning in St. Louis, giving up four runs. Last night, he went four innings.

Cal Quantrill has a similar experience. His first start was pretty good, going 3-2/3 and allowing just one run vs. the White Sox, but in his second start, he lasted just an inning and a third, allowing seven runs, five of them earned.

If we include Logan Allen’s five starts at the beginning of the year, which totaled 15-2/3 innings, an average of just over three innings per start, the starting pitchers not named Bieber, Civale, and Plesac are creating a big burden on the bullpen.

Added up, that comes to 24 starts made by other pitchers than the top three in the rotation, and the average number of innings pitched in those starts is 3-1/3.

And we are not counting the opener start made by Phil Maton or the start made by Eli Morgan, which by the way would lower that average, since he worked just 2-2/3 innings.

We understand that average is skewed somewhat by trying to get Quantrill and Mejia stretched out so they can give the team at least five innings. So, their starts this week against the Orioles are huge in figuring out what will happen over the next two weeks.

With Bieber now out, it’s clear the organization needs to do something about the starting pitching if they want to remain in contention for a playoff spot.

There are teams that have fallen out of the post-season race, like the Rangers, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Orioles. However, the reason a few of them have dropped out is because their starting pitching stinks.

Still, you might be able to pry lefty Tyler Anderson (3-6, 4.52 ERA) or right-hander JT Brubaker (4-5, 3.90 ERA) out of Pittsburgh, or might Texas give up Kyle Gibson (4-0, 2.13 ERA, but making almost $18 million over the next two years) for the right price.

Remember, the Indians farm system is deep at the lower levels, particularly in the middle infield, so there could be a fit.

We know the Cleveland organization is known for their patience, but if they are too patient, they could start to see the lack of starting pitching take its toll. Considering how hard they have fought to be in the race, that would be a shame.

Tribe Won’t Do It, But We’ll Look Ahead…

Without a doubt, the Cleveland Indians are a frustrating team to watch. They struggle to score runs for sure, and heck, they’ve been no-hit twice this season, and we are only a little over a third of the way through the campaign.

Yesterday’s 10-4 win over the Orioles marked just the second time this year the Tribe scored over 10 runs in a ballgame, and it was only the fifth time Terry Francona’s team won by more than five runs. Contrast this to the division leading White Sox, who have won 12 games by five tallies or more.

What this means is even when they win, and they have won often enough to be on a pace to win 90 games in 2021, they keep you on the edge of your seat. There are very few relaxing victories.

Cleveland has already played their chief division rivals, the Pale Hose, 11 times this season, winning six. That means two things. First, the Tribe doesn’t have as many opportunities to catch the Sox in head-to-head meetings, they play only eight more times.

On the other hand, it also means the Indians have already played the majority of their games against the best team in the AL Central Division, meaning they have 35 games against the Royals, Twins, and Tigers, against whom they have a 15-7 record.

We know the front office or Francona aren’t looking ahead, but the next two months offer a strict contrast in terms of the schedule.

The rest of June includes five more games against Baltimore (including today’s tilt) as well as three against Seattle, three vs. Pittsburgh, and seven total against division rivals the Twins and Tigers.

Cleveland better continue their winning ways because once the calendar turns to July, the slate gets brutal.

Heading into the All Star break, the Tribe plays four vs. Houston and a three game trip to Tampa before coming back for a four game series at Progressive Field against the Royals.

Following the Mid Summer Classic (which it still is, by the way), Francona’s crew resumes play with a six game trip to Oakland (a recent nightmare for Cleveland teams) and Houston.

They come home for four with the Rays and two with St. Louis, before ending the month with a series in Chicago against the White Sox and then on to Toronto.

The trade deadline comes during the series against the White Sox. At that point, will the organization be looking to buy or sell?

The front office has made some changes in the past week, cutting ties with Jake Bauers to take a look at slugging first baseman Bobby Bradley, and seems to have settled on a rotation of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, and J.C. Mejia for now.

The off days Cleveland has had in the past two weeks have allowed them to stretch out Quantrill and Mejia without putting undue stress on the bullpen.

The Indians need the latter two to provide some good outings until Zach Plesac can return to the rotation, probably after the All Star break.

This team is still built on pitching, and without it, it is very, very difficult for them to win games. They have to have it be a close game heading into the six inning.

Both Quantrill’s and Mejia’s first starts were encouraging and if at least one of them can provide solid innings to start games, it helps the organization rebuild some depth.

The Indians need to take advantage of the June games to establish themselves as contenders before the trade deadline. Then, maybe the front office will be allowed to spend some cash to improve the current roster.