Was Altman’s Presser A Smoke Screen? It Should Be

Cavs’ president of basketball operations Koby Altman held his after the season press conference on Monday and we file it under the category of “What else did you want him to stay”.

Altman expressed confidence in the “Core 4” (this is the last time we will use this term, a label like that must be earned) and talked about the journey to a championship, that it takes time to get there, and said you could see the improvement of the team with a 64 win regular season.

Again, what did you want him to say? That it is obvious the current roster isn’t good enough to win a championship, and changes have to be made? That wasn’t the forum for that kind of discussion.

Much like it didn’t matter what the Cavs did during the regular season in 2024-25, what Altman says doesn’t either. His actions prior to the start of training camp this fall will tell you what he thinks.

We have heard people comparing the timeline to that of the Boston Celtics, who took seven years to get to the top of the mountain and win the title in 2023-24. There is a major difference though. Those Celtics’ teams went to the conference finals five different seasons in those seven years.

The Cavaliers have yet to get past the second round with this group.

The centerpieces of those Boston teams are Jaylen Brown, drafted in 2016 and Jayson Tatum, picked in the first round of 2017. Their usual starting lineup the year Tatum was selected was Brown and Tatum, and the other three starters were Al Horford, Aron Baynes, and Kyrie Irving.

They lost to the Cavs in the conference finals in seven games.

Over the years, their starting lineups featured many players. Marcus Smart, Kemba Walker, and even Tristan Thompson were prominent for Boston until they traded for Derrick White at the deadline in 2022.

The following off-season, Brad Stevens brought in Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis and won it all last season.

They did not stick with the same group over that entire period of time.

Getting De’Andre Hunter was a good start. He’s long, athletic, and can shoot the ball. In our opinion, he should be a #3. Too often, Kenny Atkinson had to use him at the #4, and he’s not big enough there.

In terms of players being “untouchable”, we don’t believe anyone is that. Now, that doesn’t mean it is likely a player like Donovan Mitchell would be moved, but let’s say the Nuggets offered Nikola Jokic for him. Altman would be crazy to not deal for the league’s best player.

And remember, Mitchell has a player option on his contract following the 2027-28 season, and everyone knows how badly he wants to win a title. Plus, he will be 29 by the time training camp gets under way.

There is a fine line between patience and stubbornness. We would get it if the Cavs stood pat after one five game loss in the playoffs, but this group has been defeated in five games the last three seasons and won two playoff series in that time.

When you build a team, you should keep tinkering until you get it right. The Celtics did just that. Can Altman do the same?

His actions this summer will speak louder than his comments earlier this week.

Cavs Getting Threes From Good Shooters

It seems the NBA is going through a controversy about the three-point shot. Watching some games, it seems like all that is missing is the rack of balls used doing the contest on All-Star Saturday night.

One of the games’ best young players, Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards, is shooting over 10 threes per game (he’s making 42.4%), and Boston’s Jayson Tatum is doing the same. In all, five players are shooting that kind of volume.

Four of the guys ranking in the top ten in attempts are shooting less than 36% from distance. We know the analytics say making 33% of the threes is the same as shooting 50% from the field, but our numbers show a made two-point shot is better than a missed three-point shot.

This brings us to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Many people have talked about their shooting this season, but they rank just 10th in the league in taking shots from beyond the arc, but they lead the NBA in percentage, knocking down 39.9%.

The teams who have taken the most threes are Boston (13th in percentage made), Chicago (9th), Charlotte (17th), Golden State (12th), and Minnesota (14th).

What we think that says about the wine and gold is they aren’t just shooting threes to shoot them, they are getting quality looks and having good shooters take those shots.

The Cavaliers who have taken the most threes are Donovan Mitchell (9.2), Darius Garland (6.8), Sam Merrill (5.5), Georges Niang (4.6), and Dean Wade (4.3). Two of those players, Merrill and Niang have reputations as snipers, meaning they are first and foremost long-distance shooters.

Mitchell is knocking down 40.4% from beyond the arc and Garland is at 41.8%. The two players with the reps are at 33.3% (Merrill) and 36.3% (Niang). Wade is shooting just 30.5%, and we wish he would not take as many shots from outside.

Wade is a career 36.4% three-point shooter, but if you take out his seven best three-shooting games (yes, we know he had them) in which he knocked down an unreal 38 of 57 shots, his career percentage drops to 33.4%.

What we are saying is that if his first couple long range shots don’t fall, he probably should get closer to the basket.

Other Cavs’ players have been super-efficient from long range. Isaac Okoro and Caris LeVert are both making around 49% from three, while Ty Jerome and Evan Mobley are both around 40% as well.

In our mind, the reason for all of the three-point shooting is the success Golden State had from 2015-2019 and the analytics group.

However, the reason for the Warriors’ success were both of their primary long-range shooters, Stephan Curry and Klay Thompson, both knocked down over 40% from behind the line.

People always talk about Trae Young’s range, but he’s 35.2% from three. LaMelo Ball likes to hoist them too, but he’s 37.2% for his career, and around 35.5% over the last two years.

It’s one thing to take three-point shots, it’s another to make them. Part of the Cavaliers’ early success is having good shooters taking good shots. Shooting them doesn’t make a team effective, making them does.

Are The Cavs Limiting Themselves?

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a very good basketball team. They enter the second half of the season (post-All-Star break) with the second-best record in the East and tied for the fourth best record in the Association (with the Clippers).

There is no question they will make the playoffs this season. Basketballreference.com has their playoff probability at 100%. And a look at the balance of the schedule has some challenges such as a pair of home games in early March against the Knicks and Celtics, and a late season west coast trip, but it doesn’t appear to be a gauntlet.

So, they are playing for playoff seeding the rest of the campaign, and the lure of finishing in the top two in the conference is home court advantage in at least the first two playoff series.

One thing that is concerning is a report that the Cavs’ goal as an organization is to win a playoff series. Our problem with this is when you have that as a goal, then you plan that way, and that would seem to be the reason nothing was done at the trade deadline.

The defending champion Nuggets lost in the first round the year prior, lost in the second round the season before that, and last went to the conference finals in 2019-20. And while the previous champs, Golden State, had a championship pedigree, they have missed the playoffs the two years before they won.

And yes, we are aware of the injuries that hampered the team.

The point is there is no step ladder to win titles in the NBA anymore, like there was in the 80’s, when the Pistons had to lost to the Celtics before they could win, and the Bulls had to lose to Detroit before they could get to The Finals.

However, the Cavs still seem to look at things that way. They wanted to contend for a playoff spot two years ago and make a seven-game series last year. They did accomplish those goals, but that was it.

It’s fine after the season ends to take stock of what you accomplished and be happy about it, but putting a limit on expectations often puts a limit on what a team can do.

Our thought is looking at the East, the only team clearly better than the Cavs is Boston, and we would have made a move, a small one, with the Celtics in mind. Perhaps another wing defender with some size to help against Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

We would have the mentality that if we can beat the Celtics, the Cavs can get to the NBA Finals. Moreso, making a move to strengthen the team lets everyone know, including a star player who can be a free agent soon, that winning the title is the goal. Every year.

When people talk about the culture of the Miami Heat, that’s what they are talking about. Every member of that team knows what the goal is, to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

Maybe holding on the #2 spot in the East or maybe even getting higher (the wine and gold are six games behind Boston) changes the expectation for the front office. We certainly hope so.

Previewing Cavs/Celtics

For the fourth consecutive season, the Cleveland Cavaliers have advanced to the Eastern Conference finals, and for the second straight campaign, their opponent is the Boston Celtics.

There are similarities as to each team’s path to this point in the playoffs, as both the wine and gold and the Celts had first round series that went the full seven games, but it took Boston five games to win the second round series against Philadelphia, while the Cavs swept the top seeded Toronto Raptors.

Boston is missing their top two players in Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, who missed the entire season after breaking his leg Opening Night in Cleveland.

The Celtics have been led in the post season by rookie Jayson Tatum, averaging 18.8 points per game, and third year pro Terry Rozier at 18.2. And, of course, they have veteran big man Al Horford, who has been eliminated by the Cavs the past three season in the playoffs.

Boston has only played six players in every post-season game, but they do have Marcus Smart back after he missed the first four playoff contests.

Brad Stevens is considered the best coach in the NBA or at least in the top two (with Gregg Popovich) and his team was the best defensive team in the NBA during the regular season.

In the playoffs though, the Celts rank 11th out of the 16 playoff teams in defensive field goal percentage, and in terms allowing points, the Cavs have actually allowed fewer points per game than Boston.

The problem for Boston in last year’s series, won by the Cavs, four games to one, is the same problem much of the NBA has, they can’t stop LeBron James, who averaged 29.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 6.8 assists last year.

The big three of James, Irving, and Kevin Love all averaged more than 20 points per game. Boston’s leading scorers were Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder, neither of whom are still with the team.

Remember, the Cavs won the four games last season by the following point totals: 13, 44, 13, and 33.

Stevens’ team is more athletic this season with Tatum, Rozier, and Jalen Brown, but they are less experienced, at least in terms of playing James in the playoffs.

In our opinion, Boston will probably try to be physical like Indiana had some success with in the first round.

But the wild card might just be George Hill for Cleveland. Hill missed three and a half games in that series, and the Cavs are 6-2 this season in the playoffs when Hill plays.

The other problem Boston poses is they are versatile offensively. Cavs’ coach Tyronn Lue likes to blitz certain players, much like they did against Victor Oladipo in the Pacers’ series, and DeMar DeRozan vs. Toronto.

Who does Lue do that to with Boston? Will be make Tatum the focus of the defensive scheme or will it be Rozier or Horford?

Will that offset the issue the C’s have in slowing down James? As it has been said, the problem with guarding James is if you are big enough, you aren’t quick enough, and if you are quick enough, you aren’t big enough.

So, Stevens will probably use Marcus Morris in the Lance Stephenson role, that as an irritant to James, trying to frustrate him.

And as usual, the outside shooters for the Cavs will have to come through. At least one of the shooters (Love, Kyle Korver, JR Smith) have to be hitting from outside to allow James room to operate in the paint.

Quite frankly, we were surprised with the ease in which the Cavaliers dispatched the Raptors, but we don’t feel that way with the Celtics. In our opinion, Boston isn’t ready to win four games out of seven against Cleveland.

That would mean an 8th straight trip to the Finals for James, and a fourth consecutive trip for the Cavs.

Will A Rookie Help the ’18-’19 Cavs?

The Cleveland Cavaliers are heading to the NBA playoffs, but some fans are obsessed with the draft pick which the Cavs acquired in the Kyrie Irving trade.

That pick, of course, originally belonged to the Brooklyn Nets, who fans of the wine and gold have been following all season long.

We even heard some fans saying that LeBron James should sit out Sunday’s game against Dallas because a Mavericks victory could help the Nets sink in the standings, thus giving the Cavs a better chance to obtain the first pick in the NBA draft.

The most attractive thing about the pick, which currently sits in the 7th position if the season ended today, giving Cleveland a 4.3% chance at the first overall selection and a 15% opportunity to pick in the top three, is what it is worth to other teams.

We say that because of today’s nature of the draft, which because of the “one and done” rule, means many of the lottery picks are based on potential, not the ability to help a good NBA team right now.

Note that we said a good NBA team, meaning one that makes the playoffs. Let’s examine last June’s draft, for example.

Of the rookies getting more than 20 minutes of playing time per game, only four are doing so on teams that will probably make the post-season. That quartet would be Jayson Tatum (Boston), Donovan Mitchell (Utah), Bam Adebayo (Miami), and OG Anunoby (Toronto).

Of those four, only Tatum was picked in the top ten. Granted, most good teams don’t get an opportunity to pick in the top ten, however, think about it. None of the rookies taken in the top ten have been impactful enough to lift their teams out of the lottery.

Looking at the year before, the only player who was a rotation players with a playoff teams was Jaylen Brown (3rd overall pick with Boston).

Now in their second year, Ben Simmons (Philadelphia-1st overall), Jamal Murray (Denver-7th pick), Jakob Poeltl (Toronto 9th), and Thon Maker (Milwaukee-10th) are contributing to playoff teams, but the other players who were selected in the top of the draft are still on bad teams.

Going back to 2015, first overall pick Karl-Anthony Towns will likely help Minnesota make the playoffs, but the rest of the players picked in the top ten are still on also-rans.

Beyond that group, Myles Turner Kelly Oubre, and Terry Rozier and solid contributors on playoff squads.

So, looking at the players projected to be selected in the top ten in the 2018 draft, how many could get significant playing time on the Cavs next fall, if James remains with the team?

Certainly Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton and Duke’s Marvin Bagley would be rotation players, but they are projected to go with the first two selections.

Most of the other players thought to be top ten picks probably don’t have NBA ready bodies.

Other players we think could play right away are Collin Sexton, a freshman point guard out of Alabama, Duke C Wendell Carter, and Villanova swingman Mikel Bridges, who is a junior, not a one year college player.

This isn’t to say the other top selections won’t be solid NBA players in time, or that they won’t put up good numbers for bad teams.

The point is there aren’t many players ready to come into the league and be solid contributors for a team with aspirations of making a deep playoff run, and history shows this is the norm.

So, the best plan for GM Koby Altman is a draft day trade to bring in a young veteran who will fit in and be able to help now. We aren’t talking about a guy who is on the wrong side of 30, but a player in his mid-20’s who might be heading toward the free agent market, like Kevin Love was when the Cavs traded for him.

That’s the best bet for the Cavaliers, not someone who played just one year of college basketball.