Stats Show Tribe Pitching Just As Responsible For Up and Down Year.

We all know the Cleveland Indians got off to a bad start this season, and then played much better in May.

However, they are back in a rut again, treading water in June, having won just six of their last 15 games.

They are trying. They’ve brought up heralded prospect Francisco Lindor to play shortstop and add Giovanny Urshela to play third base, and tomorrow will mark the debut of right-hander Cody Anderson, who will start against the Rays.

The hitting takes the bulk of the blame, but in reality, they are only half of the problem, because the team ERA ranks 12th in the American League, although they might rank higher if not for some questionable official scoring.

First, the hitting. Despite ranking 3rd in the AL in on base percentage, and 9th in slugging, the Tribe ranks 10th in the league in runs scored. This is mostly because they are terrible with men on base.

That’s mostly because they don’t have enough solid bats in the lineup.

Right now, they have Jason Kipnis, who is having an MVP quality season leading off, and Lindor is hitting second, with Michael Brantley third. Kipnis (.417 OBP) and Brantley (.381) get on base a lot.

After that, there aren’t a lot of guys doing anything.

David Murphy and Ryan Raburn are doing well platooning at DH, but Raburn has slowed after a hot start. Carlos Santana is batting .212, and his most consistent skill this year is walking. While that is better than making an out, it’s usually not resulting in runs being scored.

Yan Gomes has been pretty consistent, but was out six weeks with a knee injury, and is batting .211 on the season.

Brandon Moss has shown some flashes, but because he strikes out a lot, he is prone to those 0 for 15 slides that don’t help the team score runs. Michael Bourn is a blight on the offense with his .238 average and OPS under 600.

So, how would you expect Kipnis and Brantley to score based on who is hitting behind them?

We have always maintained you need to have at least seven solid hitters to have a formidable offensive team. How many do the Indians have?

Right now, three (Kipnis, Brantley, DH platoon) and we think Gomes, Moss, and Santana can be. That still leaves them one bat short. Lindor and Urshela are too young and inexperience to be counted on, although both haven’t been bad so far.

The pitching has been a disappointment too. They lead the AL in striking out hitters, but when teams hit the ball, it hasn’t been good.

Tribe pitchers have the 2nd highest batting average against on balls put in play and have allowed the third most home runs in the league. The first figure points out the Cleveland defense hasn’t been good most of the year.

None of the starters have an ERA under 3.00, and several parts of the bullpen have been crazy inconsistent as well. Cody Allen has righted himself after a bad start, and Bryan Shaw has been solid lately too, but Zack McAllister is up and down.

Why Ryan Webb and Austin Adams haven’t received a better chance is a mystery, and it may be time to cut bait on Nick Hagadone and Scott Atchison.

The fifth starter spot has been held by several guys, and perhaps the best of them, Shawn Marcum (who pitched well in four of six starts) was designated for assignment on Thursday.

Maybe Anderson can stabilize that spot.

Because the American League is so tightly packed, if Terry Francona’s club can get some consistency and can rattle off something like 14 wins in a 20 game span, they would be in the top half of the league record wise.

Unfortunately, outside of a three-week stretch in May, they haven’t been able to do that.

Tribe Last 27 Games, Much Better Than First 27.

When we evaluated the Cleveland Indians after the first sixth of the season, they were floundering at 10-17, on a pace to go 60-102 for the season.

The next 27 games proved to be much more successful, mostly due to the starting pitching and the bullpen settled into some redefined roles.

Terry Francona’s club went 16-11 in this group of games and hit the one-third point in the season at 26-28 and very much in the mix for a post-season berth.

The Royals have come back to the pack a bit and the Tigers have been in a major slump, so the surprising Minnesota Twins are currently the division leaders, with the Indians five games back. They sit just two and a half games out of a wild card spot.

The offense improved, thanks to a historic month by Jason Kipnis, who was moved to the leadoff spot, and currently sits 6th in the American League in runs scored per game. They are 4th in the league in OPS, mostly because they are 2nd in on base percentage, led by Carlos Santana, who leads the AL in walks.

Still, the offense is inconsistent. In the last 28 games, the Tribe scored three runs or less in 14 of them, exactly half of them. However, they scored seven or more runs in six games, which is what improved their ranking. Thanks to the pitching staff, they won four of the games they scored three runs or fewer.

The Twins rank just ahead of Cleveland in runs per game, and they had 10 games of three runs or less in that span, along with seven games scoring seven or more. It’s a slightly less volatile attack.

When they score four or more runs, the Indians are 21-9.

Without a more consistent offense, the pitching has to shoulder the entire burden for this team winning.

The Tribe pitching staff ranks 11th in the Junior Circuit in ERA, but the way the starters are going, they will continue to rise in that statistic. And they lead the AL in strikeouts by a wide margin, fanning 39 more hitters than Tampa Bay in two fewer games.

The “Big Four” of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar all have allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and struck out twice as many hitters as they have walked. That is outstanding.

All of them have an ERA under 4.00 as well. Over the last month, since Kluber’s 18 strikeout performance against St. Louis, a span of 23 games, Tribe pitchers have allowed more than four runs in a game just four times, and in two of those games, they allowed just five runs.

That’s dominant pitching.

Shawn Marcum isn’t the fireballer the rest of the guys are, but he’s provided good outing in three of his four starts. Despite not being able to throw in the mid 90’s, he is striking out almost a hitter per inning.

As for the bullpen, Cody Allen has pitched well since the end of April, allowing just four earned runs in 16-1/3 innings, striking out 23. His return to form has stabilized the ‘pen, and the others have followed suit.

Bryan Shaw is looking more and more like the guy who pitched here in 2013 and 2014.

Zack McAllister and Nick Hagadone have been inconsistent, and Scott Atchison was not pitching well before he went on the DL with an ankle injury.

Things are looking up at Progressive Field.

The starters are throwing like we all expected entering the season, and if the bats can start showing some improvement, it could be a fun summer downtown.

What a difference the second sixth of the season was.

Some Things Bothering Us With The Tribe

The baseball season is still very, very young. That’s why no one should be too upset about the Cleveland Indians start after 14 games.

The Tribe is 5-9 for the season, and really the only problem with that record is that Kansas City and Detroit have launched the 2015 regular season on a hot streak.

The Indians were 5-9 at the same point in the season in 2013 and went on to win 92 games that season and made the playoffs.

If you are looking at how games behind Cleveland is in the standings, be advised that on May 18th last season, they were 10-1/2 games out of first. They still went to the final weekend of the season before being eliminated from the post-season.

However, there still are some disturbing trends that have shown up in the first three weeks of the season, and they are being carried over from a year ago.

Defense. The Indians thought this would be improved from last year because Jose Ramirez replaced Asdrubal Cabrera at SS, and Carlos Santana was established at 1B. It’s still a problem.

Ramirez has booted some routine plays in key situations giving opponents extra outs, and the fears about Brandon Moss in right have proven true. He has missed cut offs routinely, and several fly balls which looked to be outs off of the bat have fallen in safely.

On a team built on pitching, the hurlers deserve better defense behind them.

Let’s face it, shortstop and centerfield are the most important defensive positions, and the organization’s best defender at SS is in Columbus.

Michael Bourn/Top of the lineup. The centerfielder’s career has been in decline since arriving here, and to this point, nothing has changed.

In his years in the National League, Bourn was a career .272 hitter with a .339 on base percentage and a 704 OPS. In two years with the Tribe, those numbers have dropped to .257/.313/.667.

While it is very early, Bourn isn’t off to a good start, hitting below .200 and second on the team in strikeouts despite having just two extra base hits.

He’s never been a very good leadoff hitter because of his on base average, but he’s becoming a liability at the top of the order. It will be interesting to see how patience Terry Francona has with the veteran.

The guy batting after him, Jason Kipnis, is also struggling. He has just one extra base hit in 58 at bats. Just two years ago, Kipnis had 57 extra base hits for the season, today, he ranks last on the club.

It wouldn’t be as bad if Kipnis was getting on base, but he’s drawn just two walks on the season, meaning his OBP is just .246.

It’s difficult for the offense to get going when every game seems to start with two outs and nobody on.

The Bullpen. Francona has ridden his bullpen hard the last two seasons, and whether it has taken a toll or not remains to be seen. However, the relief corps has had a problem throwing strikes, and that is not good.

Cody Allen has walked six hitters in five innings. Nick Hagadone, whose control has always been an issue, has walked three in six innings of work.

Bryan Shaw has walked two in four innings, but has been behind in the count often, leading to allowing eight hits in that workload. Kyle Crockett, now at Columbus, walked three in less than three innings.

Putting extra men on base especially in key, late game situations is never a good idea. This is an area that could turn around quickly.

We generally don’t form a solid judgment on a team until they get to 27 games, or 1/6th of the season.

But the first two things noted here were around all last year, so it becomes more of a trend.

Sure, the Indians could start hitting this weekend in Detroit and come back home in a much better spot. The starting pitching, especially at the top of the rotation has been spectacular.

Let’s hope the Tribe starts playing much better starting Friday night.

Tribe Gathers A Moss

We have advocated for a long time that the Cleveland Indians have strengths in their organization and needed to use some depth in those areas to acquire pieces the ballclub needs.

Those strengths are in the middle infield and bullpen depth.

Yesterday, they did exactly that, trading minor league 2B Joe Wendle to the Oakland A’s for 1B/OF/DH Brandon Moss.

Wendle is a solid prospect, but let’s face it, he stuck behind Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez with the big club, so future playing time in Cleveland has to be considered bleak.

Dealing from strength is the chief reason we like this trade from the Indians’ standpoint.

The other is Moss’s power. Remember the end of August to the middle of September when the only Indian who could hit a home run was Carlos Santana? Moss should take care of that, having hit 76 home runs over the last three seasons.

The newest Indian should enjoy not playing in Oakland’s pitching friendly park. He hit .265 with 13 homers in 272 at bats away from the bay last season, posting an outstanding 831 OPS in 2014.

He is also reported to be a great clubhouse presence, which manager Terry Francona likes to have. We don’t think the front office would bring in a player who would be a problem in the locker room.

He does strike out a lot, whiffing 153 times last season.

That’s just one of the reasons for concern. Moss hit just .173 with 4 dingers in the second half of the season a year ago, battling a bad hip which he had surgery on in the off-season. In fact, it has been reported he will not be ready for spring training.

He also is a left-handed batter, adding yet another to the collection that GM Chris Antonetti is putting together. There is no question the Indians need a solid right-handed bat, and they may still be looking for one, but with Michael Brantley, Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Michael Bourn, the Tribe is vulnerable to southpaw pitchers.

You also have to wonder about the ramifications for the rest of the roster with this move. Moss is primarily a 1B and a DH, he’s not particularly a good outfielder defensively, and the Tribe seems to have Carlos Santana and Nick Swisher currently manning those spots.

The Cleveland defense was shaky last season, so putting Moss and his surgically repaired hip in RF doesn’t really address that area. You have to wonder if Antonetti’s next move is dealing Swisher, if that is possible.

The only way we can see that happening is if the Indians are willing to eat some of his large contract, something the current front office has been loathe to do. We would do it because, let’s say you pay half of the $15 million owed each of the next two years, you would then have $7.5 million to spend elsewhere.

If we were Antonetti, we would still be looking for a right-handed hitter and another innings eater for the rotation. The Tribe still has the bullpen depth and some young back of the rotation arms to dangle.

With the White Sox making a splash in trades and free agency, Antonetti can’t stand pat with the current roster. He still needs to improve the club. We are skeptical, but here’s hoping another decent move is coming for the Cleveland Indians.

Things That Wouldn’t Surprise Us About The Tribe

The Cleveland Indians are hanging on by their fingernails at a possible post-season berth. They sit five games out of the second wild card berth, and our opinion is you have to be within five on Labor Day to be a real contender.

And in doing nothing at the trade deadline to add a significant piece to the current roster, it appears the front office is starting to look forward to the 2015 season, as the Indians are currently the second youngest active 25 man roster in the major leagues.

So, even though we haven’t officially given up on this season, we have started contemplating what will happen with the 2015 edition of the Cleveland Indians.

It wouldn’t surprise us if:

Jason Kipnis moved to third base. The Tribe brass has hinted they would like to see a keystone combination of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez because of the defensive upgrade it would provide. If that happens, then Kipnis would have to find a new position.

Logically, Kipnis would move back to LF, his college position, but Cleveland’s best player, Michael Brantley, is in that spot. So, we wouldn’t be surprised if GM Chris Antonetti either traded Lonnie Chisenhall or moved him to another spot (RF?) and put Kipnis at the hot corner.

We understand about the defensive movement of players seeming to have an adverse effect on the ’14 Tribe, but if this is done early enough, the players involved could come to spring training playing their new positions and be ready for Opening Day.

Nick Swisher bounced back. It is no secret that the Indians’ big free agent acquisitions before the 2013 season haven’t worked out, but of the two players (Michael Bourn being the other), Swisher is a better bet for a comeback in our view.

First, it is likely Swisher will be a DH, keeping his ailing knees away for the pounding of defensive play.

Second, Swisher’s 2014 season is an anomaly. Although, he didn’t drive in a lot of run last year, he still banged out 22 HRs, on par with his career numbers.

On the other side, Bourn’s numbers seem to be in steady decline. He’s never been a great offensive player, but his stolen base numbers continue to drop and he’s not an effective leadoff man anyway because of his low on base percentage. If he can’t steal bases any more, then he should be hitting at the bottom of the order.

We aren’t saying Swisher is going to hit .280 with 30 homers, but he could hit in the .250 range with a lot of walks and 20+ dingers. That wouldn’t be bad.

Terry Francona decides he’s done. This is a long shot to be sure, but Tito’s had problems with his legs over the years, and there seems to be a little disconnect between himself and the front office, which is the reason he came here in the first place.

While it appears Francona has slipped into the veteran manager’s viewpoint of trusting only veterans, that seems to be in conflict with the front office’s desire to give opportunities to players like Tyler Holt and Ramirez.

Perhaps it is the other way around and it is Francona who would like to play the youngsters, but his continued play of Chris Dickerson says otherwise.

Again, we believe this is a long shot to happen, but we wouldn’t be surprised if it did.

In another week, when the rosters can expand to 40 players, we may start to get an idea of what the 2015 Cleveland Indians will look like. We could see Lindor arrive along with Jesus Aguilar and maybe 3B Giovanny Urshela and of course, a boatload of bullpen arms.

Here’s hoping the current players can put that off by getting on a hot streak over the next week.

Not Many Solutions for Tribe Problems

The Cleveland Indians are struggling.

Optimistic people will tell you they are only 3-1/2 games out of a wild card spot, thanks to the bunched up American League standings, but watching them play tells you it doesn’t look like they can put together any kind of winning streak soon.

The defense is atrocious, the hitting is mostly weak, and right now, three of their starting pitchers have an ERA of over 5.00.

That isn’t exactly a recipe for success.

The past weekend series against Oakland can be set aside in this discussion because it could just be a matter of playing a team when they are red-hot, which the A’s are. Still, the Indians’ difficulties have been going on all season long.

Are their any solutions for GM Chris Antonetti and manager Terry Francona?

The simple answer is not really. The Tribe needs the veteran players with track records to start playing to those career numbers. Because there is no immediate help in the farm system and Antonetti isn’t the type of GM to make rash deals.

This lineup isn’t scoring runs and it probably isn’t going to as long as Carlos Santana bats .150 and Nick Swisher bats .200. Those two players have to get it going.

As for the people who want the latter out of here, Swisher has no trade value right now with the way he is hitting and playing defense, and his expensive contract.

One move Francona can make is to start moving Swisher off of first base where his defense has been terrible to be nice. Put Santana back at first, a position he is more familiar with, because perhaps learning a new position has affected the switch-hitter’s batting.

Getting Jason Kipnis back from the disabled list will no doubt help the hitting, although Mike Aviles has done a fine job at 2B in his absence. With Kipnis back, Aviles can go back to the part-time role he excels at.

After a hot start, he has slumped a bit, which is the norm for the veteran. He hits best in a limited role.

The Indians consider Jesus Aguilar a marginal prospect, but his right-handed bat is needed by the big club, which is overloaded in terms of guys who swing from the left side.

As for the pitching staff, Trevor Bauer is getting the start tonight, replacing Danny Salazar. However, Zack McAllister and Justin Masterson need to start pitching better as well.

The struggles of the starting rotation are definitely affecting the bullpen, which is starting to show signs of wear and tear.

If something happens to one of the starters, and Masterson is looking like a guy with a sore arm (loss of velocity and command), right now, Salazar is the only option, and he did not pitch well in his first AAA start.

Losing Scott Kazmir and Ubaldo Jimenez without replacing either one in the off-season has robbed the organization of its depth at starting pitcher.

So, there aren’t many alternatives except to play better. No one wants to hear that among the fans, but we can’t see any blockbuster deals on the horizon, mostly because the Tribe doesn’t have anyone with huge market value.

Asdrubal Cabrera is an above average major league shortstop and Francisco Lindor is Cleveland’s best prospect, but the former is a free agent at the end of this season, so you won’t get much in return.

If you deal anyone else, there isn’t a player to replace him.

That’s what happens when you don’t draft well for a decade.

So, Tribe fans have to hope the veterans get back to their usual levels or it will be a long summer.

Either way, it’s not the best scenario if you are a baseball fan in Cleveland.