The Diminishing Skill Of Getting On Base

When the famed Baseball Abstract came out in the 1980’s, Bill James introduced the concept of OPS, writing that a player was a great offensive player if he could get on base 35% of the time while maintaining a .450 slugging percentage.

The reasoning was the player had the ability to get on base frequently and the slugging percentage measured how the player could advance runners, getting extra base hits, which is measured by slugging.

That made an 800 OPS the gold standard for hitters. That number started to be regarded as the measure of offensive success, but that led to younger baseball analysts thinking players with a .300 on base percentage and .500 slugging percentage were great hitters.

Those players generally tend to be guys who swing for the fences in most at bats, with high strikeout, low walk rates (hence the low on base percentage). Joey Gallo is the poster boy for us, with people telling us Gallo was an offensive force, piling up 800 OPS figures with batting averages of .209 (.333 OBP, 2017) and .206 (.312 OBP, 2018).

We know it is not fashionable to say this anymore, but no one who hits under .220 is a good hitter.

In 2024, the major league average OPS is 714, an on base percentage of .313 paired with a slugging percentage of .401.

Just a few years ago, good teams had several players that fit the .350/.450 model. For example, the 2015 Kansas City Royals that won the World Series had Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Kendrys Morales, and Ben Zobrist.

The 2016 Indians had Jose Ramirez, Tyler Naquin, and Carlos Santana who did it, while Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor were very close.

Right now, the Arizona Diamondbacks lead the majors in runs scored and they have three such batters: Ketel Marte, Jake McCarthy, and Joc Pederson. The Yankees have scored the next most runs and they have just two in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.

We watch the Orioles when they were in town and thought their lineup was pretty solid top to bottom, but they also have only two in Gunnar Henderson and surprisingly Ryan O’Hearn.

This year’s Guardians’ team, 13th in the big leagues in runs scored have just one in Steven Kwan (382/480/862). The next closest is kind of a surprise in David Fry (369/441/810). The Guards are 17th in on base percentage at .310, just below the league average.

The reason for that is that Kwan and Fry are the only Cleveland players who can get on base at a 35% or better clip. Among players with over 200 plate appearances, they do have three hitters who are slugging .450 or better–Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Kwan.

Our point is the Guardians do not have a lot of real good hitters and the offense could be better if they had more hitters who got on base more often. On the other hand, the art of getting on base seems to be on the decline in the sport, and that’s a shame.

As James also said, the game is measured by the number of outs, not a time clock (pitch clock not withstanding). A 1.000 slugging percentage can be achieved by going 1 for 4 with a home run. If you have a 1.000 on base percentage, your team keeps batting in the first inning.

A Trio Deserving Of Heritage Park.

The Cleveland baseball franchise has its own franchise Hall of Fame out behind the centerfield fence called Heritage Park. Everyone may have forgotten this because the team hasn’t added anyone since 2016 when Albert Belle, Jim Thome, Frank Robinson, and Charlie Jamieson were added.

Why has it been six years since the franchise honored anyone? Quite frankly, we have no idea. We have theories, but they would all be the same as some of the other things the team has done to not do anything for the fans.

They just don’t do anything for the people who pay for tickets.

This needs to change next season. Since Progressive (nee Jacobs) Field opened in 1994, the Indians/Guardians have been among the best franchises in baseball, making the post-season 13 times, winning three American League championships, and 11 Central Division titles.

They’ve honored many of the greats from the late 90’s teams which won two pennants: Belle, Thome, Kenny Lofton, Omar Vizquel, Sandy Alomar Jr., Charles Nagy, and manager Mike Hargrove, who is also honored for his playing days with the Tribe.

It’s time to start honoring the players who played in the 2000’s, as those teams had some success as well.

We would start with Grady Sizemore. Sizemore spent parts of eight seasons with Cleveland, with injuries taking their toll over the last two, but he was a dynamic force from 2005-2009. He made three All-Star appearances (’05. ’06, and ’07), leading the league in runs scored and doubles in 2006.

That season was the down year between the 2005 team which just missed the post-season and the ’07 team which reached the ALCS. However, we maintain that if the Indians were contenders that season, Sizemore would have been the likely MVP of the league.

He batted .290 (907 OPS) with 22 homers and 53 two baggers, scoring 134 runs, while playing tremendous defense.

As we said, injuries cut his career short, as he only had one more season after 2009 (age 26) where he played more than 100 games. Still, he should be honored for the greatness he exhibited with Cleveland in that five year span.

Jason Kipnis was a mainstay of the early Terry Francona era teams, playing with the team from 2011-2019, making two All-Star teams, and key player on four Cleveland teams that made the post-season.

The second baseman has over 1100 hits (1120) and 123 home runs in a Cleveland uniform with an OPS over 800 three times in a four-year span from 2013-16. And he moved to centerfield in 2017 and 2018 for the post-season.

We would also like to see Cody Allen honored in Heritage Park.

Allen is the franchise’s all-time saves leader (149) and the closer in the run from 2016-18 where the Indians got to the World Series in the first of those years. He struck out 564 batters in 440-2/3 innings, leading the AL in games finished in 2015.

Along with Bryan Shaw and Andrew Miller, he was a huge reason Cleveland got to the Fall Classic in ’16 despite a starting rotation ravaged by injuries.

Honoring this trio would be a first step in re-establishing the franchise’s Hall of Fame. The 2022 squad re-awakened fan interest and the organization needs to keep that going.

Celebrating the history of the franchise is never a bad thing. The Guardians need to get back in touch with that.

The Decline Of The Tribe Hitting Since ’16

It wasn’t that long ago that the Cleveland Indians had one of the best offenses in the American League. In 2018, the Tribe finished in the top three in the AL in runs scored for the third consecutive year.

So, what happened in the past two seasons?

Let’s start with 2016. The American League champs finished second in the league in scoring, with four starters having OPS over 800: Carlos Santana (865), Jose Ramirez (825), Jason Kipnis (811), and Mike Napoli (800). Francisco Lindor fell just short of that mark.

In addition, two essentially platoon players, Tyler Naquin and Brandon Guyer, who was acquired at the trade deadline were over 800. If you include Lindor, it gave Terry Francona six guys in the lineup who were big threats at the plate.

That was Napoli’s last good season, and in 2017, the Indians replaced him with Edwin Encarnacion, and Cleveland finished third in the Junior Circuit in runs scored.

That season, five regulars had OPS of 800 or more (Santana, Ramirez, Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Encarnacion) along with platoon pieces Austin Jackson and Lonnie Chisenhall, again giving Francona six very good hitters most days in his batting order.

And the front office went out an acquired Jay Bruce when Brantley was injured to maintain the offense. It was also the last year the Indians won a post-season game.

Unfortunately, Kipnis’ last very good season hitting was ’16, and the ’17 campaign was the last healthy season for Chisenhall, and that was the last year in which Francona had more than four regulars with OPS over 800.

This meant second base was not as productive, the outfield offense was starting to decline, and Santana departed via free agency.

In 2018, the number of very good hitters written into the Cleveland lineup was down to four, but one of them was Ramirez, who set a blistering pace until the middle of August, winding up his second straight year finishing in the top three in the MVP voting. He likely would have won without his late season slump.

The other three were Lindor, Brantley, and Encarnacion.

A larger shift occurred during the off-season, when Brantley departed as a free agent, and Encarnacion was traded with the primary return (other than shedding payroll) was Santana who returned and had an excellent 2019 season.

Brantley’s departure meant the outfield was now an offensive hole, the only player putting up good numbers in 2019 was newcomer Jordan Luplow, a platoon piece.

The only everyday players with 800+ OPS’ were Santana, Lindor, and Ramirez, who struggled through May before getting red hot until he broke a bone in his hand in September.

Cleveland wasn’t getting any offense from the outfield, DH, and 2B (we eliminate catching because of the team’s philosophy of defense first at the position), which necessitated getting Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes when they dealt starter Trevor Bauer, although Puig was a free agent to be.

Not coincidentally, the Indians dropped to 7th in runs scored in 2019.

That ranking is excellent compared to being 13th in the COVID shortened 2020 season. The only Indians’ hitter with an OPS over 800 was Ramirez, the AL MVP runner up. The hitters closest to that figure were Reyes, Lindor, and 2B Cesar Hernandez, who was an upgrade at that position.

The inability of the organization to replace guys like Brantley, Kipnis, and have two effective platoon players at spots has led to this. This leads us to the question of how does this situation get corrected?

Hernandez is a free agent, and it is tremendously likely Lindor will be dealt in the off-season, meaning Ramirez is the lone wolf from the 2016 season, although we would think Reyes can get over the 800 OPS threshold next season.

We have demonstrated that good offenses have five or six players of this type (800+ OPS) in the batting order regularly? Care to tell us beyond Ramirez and Reyes who those players will be?

It will be very difficult for Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff to find three or four solid bats for Francona to use in 2021. It also demonstrates that trimming the payroll usually results in forming holes on your baseball team.

The hitting slowly disappeared over time and no one reacted. The organization failed to find suitable replacements. And the result is what happened in 2020.

In Praise Of Cookie Carrasco

Virtually every major league baseball team has one. That player who is identified with the franchise. They played in that town for their entire career, and they are that franchise’s Mr. ________.

And it’s not just restricted to large market cities. Kansas City has George Brett. Milwaukee has Robin Yount. Cincinnati has Johnny Bench and likely Joey Votto as well.

Minnesota has Joe Mauer and Kirby Puckett. Baltimore has Cal Ripken Jr. Atlanta? Chipper Jones.

Some cities have had these type of players, but unfortunately, they have passed away. We mentioned Puckett, and the Pirates had Roberto Clemente and Willie Stargell. The Cubs had Ernie Banks.

Currently, St. Louis has Yadier Molina and Washington has Ryan Zimmerman.

The Indians had Bob Feller, arguably the best Tribesman ever. However, what did those other players do that Feller didn’t? The all played within the last 50 years.

Feller retired in 1956. That’s 64 years ago.

Could the Indians have such a player on their roster right now? Well, as a matter of fact, they may. He may not be a superstar or a Hall of Famer, but they have a player who may play his entire career in northeast Ohio. It’s Carlos Carrasco.

Carrasco is beginning his 11th season with the organization, coming over in the trade that sent Cliff Lee to Philadelphia.

The other players who came with him were infielder Jason Donald, who was moved in the deal that brought Trevor Bauer to Cleveland after the 2012 season, Lou Marson, who left as a free agent in 2013, and never played in the bigs again, and Jason Knapp, who developed arm trouble.

Carrasco came up to the Tribe late in ’09 for five starts, and spent most of ’10 in the minors as well, making seven starts and finishing with a 3.83 ERA in 45 innings.

Cookie opened with the big club in 2011, and was a mainstay in the rotation, making 21 starts before he injured his elbow, necessitating Tommy John surgery, which kept him out through the 2012 season.

He made one April start in ’13, but spent much of the first half of that season in AAA, before coming up in July. He struggled in six starts after coming back and finished the year in the bullpen.

In 2014, he again struggled opening the year as a starter, allowing 17 runs in 19 innings in four starts, and was again moved to relief.

It was in the bullpen that he revitalized his career.

The right-hander made 26 appearances out of the bullpen, going 3-1 with a save and a 2.30 ERA, striking out 39 batters in 43 innings.

On August 10th of that year, the Indians needed a starter in a game at Yankee Stadium, and Terry Francona and then pitching coach Mickey Callaway went with Carrasco, telling him to use the same aggressiveness he used in the ‘pen.

Carrasco allowed two hits over five shutout innings, striking out four. He made nine more starts the rest of the season, pitching to a 1.30 ERA, and fanning 78 hitters. Included was a two hit shutout against Houston.

From there, Carrasco became one of the American League’s most reliable starting pitchers, going 60-36 with a 3.40 ERA from 2015 to 2019.

Last year, as everyone knows, he was diagnosed with leukemia, and missed three months before coming back to pitch in relief in September.

This season, he will be back in the starting rotation, and should be back to being one of the premier starters in the American League.

He’s also under contract with a club option through 2023, meaning he likely will finish his career here, and likely will wear just one team’s uniform, the Cleveland Indians.

He’s been underrated by fans here, mostly because he’s pitched on the same staff as Corey Kluber, but people around baseball know how good of a pitcher Carlos Carrasco is.

That’s one of the best in the game.

Tribe Keys To A Fast Start.

If the Cleveland Indians want to return to the post-season in 2020, they obviously have to make up ground on last season’s division champion, Minnesota Twins.

Either the Tribe needs to decrease the 170 runs scored gap between them and the Twins or they need to widen the .44 divide in ERA. Doing both would be optimal.

Last season (according to WAR), the three worst spots for the Indians were second base, DH, and centerfield.

With that said, here are the players we consider to be the keys for the 2020 Tribe–

Cesar Hernandez. The switch-hitting former Phillie is replacing long time second baseman, Jason Kipnis. The Cleveland front office is hoping that last season was a blip on the radar in terms of the soon to be 30 year old’s ability to get on base.

From 2016-18, Hernandez’ lowest on base percentage was .356. He walked 95 times in ’18. He also tailed off in the second half a year ago, with a 759 OPS before the All Star Game, and 720 after.

Last year, Kipnis had a .304 on base percentage, and Cleveland is hoping that Hernandez can take some walks and move the offense along.

Oscar Mercado had a .318 OBP hitting mostly in the #2 hole in ’19. If Hernandez can get on base at his career mark (.352), he could fit in nicely in that spot and give more opportunities for the middle of the order to drive him in.

Domingo Santana/Franmil Reyes. To put it nicely, one of the reasons the Indians traded for Reyes at the deadline in July was the production of their DH’s were atrocious, and LF wasn’t much better.

If Santana can hit like he did in the first half (.286, 18 HR, 63 RBI, .850 OPS), then all of a sudden the Indians have two power bats in their lineup, and when you add in Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, and Jose Ramirez, it gives them five guys with 25+ home run power.

Last year, Minnesota had five players with 30 or more blasts.

Defensively, it could be a challenge putting one of these guys out there on a regular basis, but Terry Francona could replace them if he has a lead late in the contest.

Oscar Mercado. Cleveland’s WAR in CF was low in part due to Leonys Martin’s dreadful performance before he was released, but they need Mercado to improve upon his rookie season.

The 25 year old was pretty steady (755 OPS in the first half, 765 in the second) in his rookie year, but an improvement in his .318 on base percentage would help him be a better offensive threat.

He could wind up hitting lower in the order if the skipper determines he would rather have Hernandez’ ability to get on at the top of the order.

Bullpen Heat. Francona and pitching coach Carl Willis got better results than could have been expected from a relief corp without many hard throwers, particularly after Brad Hand developed a tired arm.

Everyone, from the fans to the front office, are banking on the impact and development of young flame throwers Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak to help shorten games.

That put less stress on the starting pitching, which is also young, at least to start the season.

Our guess is Francona will want to start them slowly, but may not be able to.

The Tribe needs to get off to a faster start than a year ago, and shortening games with the two new toys will help.

Remember, the Twins won the Central because they had an 11-1/2 game lead on June 2nd, due to them being 29-30. From then on, Cleveland went 64-33, and played at a pace that was three games better than Minnesota, and that’s with the Tribe losing their last five.

These players could be the key, along with a healthy Lindor, to getting off to that good start.

It’s Time To Move Lindor…Out Of The Leadoff Spot

The Cleveland Indians need to find a new home for Francisco Lindor.

No, we are not talking about trading the four time All-Star shortstop, who is one of the best players in the game. Rather, we are suggesting skipper Terry Francona find a new spot in the batting order for Lindor, a move that would help the Tribe score more runs.

Francona likes Lindor leading off because he “sets the tone” for the team, and we understand that line of thinking. But everyone knows the shortstop is the team’s leader, it’s unofficial captain, so why not bat him in a spot the benefits the club more?

First, the job of the leadoff man is to get on base. Lindor’s .335 on base percentage last season is nothing special. His lifetime figure is .347, good but not optimal for a guy hitting first.

Cesar Hernandez, recently signed by the Indians to play second base, has a career .352 OBP. Kenny Lofton, the great leadoff man for Cleveland in the 90’s, had a .375 mark during his time in northeast Ohio.

However, our biggest reason to drop Lindor in the order is his slugging percentage, which at .518 led the Indians. It is odd to us that the Tribe’s best on base guy, Carlos Santana, batted in the #3 or #4 hole all season, while the player with the best slugging percentage led off virtually every game.

Lindor’s walk rate of 7% was his lowest since his rookie season figure of 6.2%. In 2018, he had his best rate at 9.4%.

We understand in today’s game, the slugging percentage leader on a team doesn’t hit in the #4 hole, and we aren’t asking for the manager to hit Lindor there. You want him getting more plate appearances than most players.

Still, wouldn’t you want your best power hitter batting with men on base? With Lindor leading off, you are guaranteeing that once a game he comes up with no one on. That doesn’t seem optimal.

For us, if you went an two seasons (’18 and ’19) with Lindor hitting first, wouldn’t it be more prudent to have Carlos Santana there?

Santana got on base almost 40% of the time (.397 OBP) last season, and has a career on base percentage of .367. And his slugging percentage was virtually the same (.515) as Lindor’s .518 mark.

One of Cleveland biggest problems offensively was getting on base, they ranked 8th in the American League in on base average, dropping from 3rd in 2018.

That’s why getting Hernandez was a solid move, his lifetime mark in that category was 48 points more than the man he replaced in Jason Kipnis.

The Indians had only one player, Santana, among the regulars (Yasiel Puig isn’t counted because he played only two months here, but had a .377 OBP) that got on base more than 35% of the time.

By contrast, Houston, New York, and Boston all had five, and Minnesota had three. That’s a pretty telling statistic.

Jose Ramirez topped the .350 mark in 2016, 2017, and 2018, so if he’s very capable of getting on base at a high rate, but that’s why we’d be looking in that direction if the Indians are looking for another outfielder.

It’s also why we keep coming back to Puig.

We would move Lindor to the #2 or #3 position in the batting order, and would hit Ramirez or Santana (or both) ahead of him.

It might just be a good way to kick start the Indians’ attack.

Tribe Should Be Active In Hot Stove

Let’s make this very clear, the Cleveland Indians have never asked us for advise on running the team.

However, that doesn’t stop us from making suggestions on what they should be thinking about this winter.

Here is what we would do starting the day after the World Series ends so the Indians can return to the American League playoffs in 2020 as Central Division champions.

We agree with the decisions they’ve said they will make already. That means we would pick up the option on Corey Kluber and decline the options on Jason Kipnis and Dan Otero.

Yes, we know Kluber struggled in his seven starts in 2019, but as we just said, it’s seven starts. And there will be less burden on the two time Cy Young Award winner, with the emergence of Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber. If Kluber can provide 200 innings in ’20, he is well worth the $17.5 million the Tribe will pay him.

We would also decline to offer Danny Salazar and Cody Anderson arbitration and we would add one more name to that list in Kevin Plawecki. If we were Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff, we would look for an upgrade to back up Roberto Perez.

To replace Kipnis, we would look for a third baseman, either on the trade market or in free agency (most likely the former) and move Jose Ramirez to second base.

We think there will be some bargains available in free agency at one of those positions. A one year deal would be ideal because top prospect Nolan Jones is on the horizon, if he can cut down on his strikeouts.

We would also strongly suggest to Terry Francona to get Francisco Lindor out of the leadoff spot. Besides Jordan Luplow, Lindor had the highest slugging percentage on the team, clubbing 74 extra base hits, nine more than Carlos Santana.

Wouldn’t it be nice if some of those extra base knocks came with men on base? The shortstop bats at least once every game with no one on by leading off.

We know Francona likes Lindor to set a tone in that spot, but when the offense has fallen off like it did in ’19, it might be more efficient to put someone who gets on base consistently in the leadoff spot (Carlos Santana?) and move Lindor to the #2 or #3 spot.

Speaking of Lindor, the biggest thing the Indians front office should do is take care of his contract situation, and by that we mean open up the purse strings and sign him long term.

And as we have said before, we don’t buy for a minute the notion that the ownership can’t keep Lindor in a Cleveland uniform long term, nor do we think the Tribe can’t be competitive and pay the shortstop a boatload of money.

Somehow, they have to shore up leftfield, which was a sinkhole for much of 2019. We would recommend seeing if Jordan Luplow can man the spot. Luplow was lethal vs. southpaws (.439 OBP, .742 slugging), but in the minors, he handled right handers well.

He would get the first shot at the job, but we also would take a long look at Daniel Johnson in spring training.

The bullpen needs work too. In today’s game, you need more power arms, something the Indians lacked last season. James Karinchak is a start, but more are on the way, guys like Kyle Nelson and Cam Hill.

In terms of trade pieces, the rotation depth the Indians developed in ’19 could be key.

The projected starters right now would be Clevinger, Bieber, Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and for the sake of argument, let’s say Aaron Civale.

That leaves Zach Plesac, Adam Plutko, Jeffry Rodriguez, Logan Allen, and don’t forget Triston McKenzie as possible pieces to get some bats.

If you trade one of them, you still have a lot of depth.

Hopefully, the front office feels it is imperative to get back to the top of the heap in the AL Central. They need to get better against good teams and good pitchers.

Let’s see what happens in the hot stove season.

It’s On To The Wild Card For Tribe

It was a very disappointing day for the Cleveland Indians and their fans yesterday. After the Friday rainout, Tribe fans were giddy that the Minnesota Twins were using bullpen arms to start both games of a doubleheader.

Someone apparently forgot to tell the Cleveland hitters, because it seems like only Oscar Mercado showed up.

The Indians spent the first three innings of the first game trying to play home run derby against lefty Devin Smeltzer, and would up getting shutout, and then in the second game, with the Tribe going with a “bullpen day”, the relievers gave up three home runs, the biggest being a grand slam off Nick Goody, who is going through a rough stretch.

Cleveland now trails the Twins by 5-1/2 games with 13 to play, so they are all but out of it in terms of the division.

They still can play their way into the one game wild card spot, as they trail Tampa Bay by two games in the loss column (2-1/2 games overall). Again, though, Terry Francona and his staff are going to need some players who have been struggling to come through.

A few days ago, we pinpointed Yasiel Puig and Jason Kipnis as two guys who the Indians needed. Puig was 1 for 7 with a walk in the two games, and amazingly, has still not hit a home run for the Indians at Progressive Field.

Kipnis took a collar in game one, stretching his current slump to 0 for 12.

Here is a microcosm of the veteran’s season in the last three weeks. He went through an 8 for 60 streak, followed by going 7 for 10, and followed that (currently) by being 0 for his last 12.

That’s 15 for 82 (.183). And when people ask us why we would move on from him for 2020, that’s the reason. Baseball is a game of consistency, and Kipnis no longer has that, and hasn’t since 2016.

The bullpen has fallen on hard times as well. Goody giving up the bomb last night wasn’t shocking, he’s been ineffective for a month, giving up four homers and walking seven in his last 8-2/3 innings.

And while we are all very happy Carlos Carrasco is back on the mound, and hopefully regain complete health, he has not been the cure all for the bullpen either. He’s pitched to a 9.39 ERA in six appearances, and allowed four dingers in 7-2/3 innings in relief.

We felt the bullpen needed an upgrade at the trade deadline or at least bring up some of the power arms in the minors to help. The front office did neither and the relief corps has floundered.

They finally did bring up James Karinchak from Columbus before this series, and he did strikeout three of the five batters he faced last night. Maybe if he were called up a few weeks ago, he could’ve been trusted in a key situation.

Regardless, last night is over and the Indians need to win and win a lot in their last 13 games if they want to have a one game shot at getting to a post-season series.

After today, the Rays next eight games are against the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees, although just the Los Angeles series is on the road. They have been better away from the dome this season.

So, an opportunity is there, but we figure the Tribe will have to win 10 or 11 of the last 13, and even then, it may not be enough.

It’s an uphill climb from here, but not impossible yet.

Here Are Tribe’s Needs For The Stretch Run

The Major League Baseball, referred to by most people as a marathon, not a sprint, has reached the closing kick stage, as the Cleveland Indians have just 15 games remaining.

In fact, when the first place Minnesota Twins come to town Friday night for a big three game series, it will be the beginning of the final home stand of 2019.

Nine more at Progressive Field, and a six game, two city trip to Chicago and Washington, and see if Terry Francona’s squad gets a berth in the post-season tournament.

The Tribe has struggled against both the White Sox and good pitching all season long, so that last week will be a gauntlet to be sure. One thing to hope for is the Nationals might have their playoff spot (they currently hold the top spot in the NL by 2-1/2 games) solidified by the last weekend, putting them in rest/set up their pitching mode for the wild card game.

It would also help if Cleveland can avoid Lucas Giolito for the White Sox series.

As it has been all season, the key for the Indians will be generating enough offense to support the pitching they have had, ranking 2nd in the AL in ERA, just behind Tampa Bay.

We have railed on Jason Kipnis all season long, but no one can doubt the Indians need a strong finish from him, particularly with Jose Ramirez’ injury. The problem is the second baseman has had a 564 OPS vs. teams over .500 compared to 824 against good teams.

Nine of the final 15 games are against the former. They need Kipnis to get hot and stay hot in the final three weeks.

The other player who the Tribe needs to get going is Yasiel Puig. Puig was slugging .475 for Cincinnati (yes, we know about Great American Ballpark) and had an OPS of 777 with the Reds.

He only hit 9 of his 22 National League homers in Cincy.

His OPS for the Indians isn’t far off of that at 759, but instead of driving the ball, he’s been more of an on base guy, at .355 vs. .302 in southern Ohio.

The Indians could use Puig getting hot with the long ball in these last three weeks to help them push runs across the plate.

Puig has 16 RBI in 136 at bats with Cleveland. By contrast, Franmil Reyes, who started slow, has 28 ribbies in 131 at bats. If Puig could start matching Reyes’ production, that would help the lineup immensely.

The other concern is how much gas the bullpen has left.

Brad Hand needs to find the arm slot on his slider, and the sooner, the better. Hitters aren’t swinging at the back foot breaking ball he throws right now, probably because they know it will be a ball.

Hopefully, a few days off will help his tired arm.

Carlos Carrasco was supposed to help and still could, but he’s allowed three HR’s in his five relief appearances since returning to the mound.

The most reliable guys Francona has right now are the two oldest relievers, Tyler Clippard and Oliver Perez.

Clippard, 34, has a 2.25 ERA in the second half, striking out 36 hitters in 32 innings since the All Star Game.

Perez, who just turned 38 recently, has pitched to a 2.57 ERA in 16 innings post All Star break.

The ‘pen needs someone else to be reliable, perhaps Nick Wittgren, a couple of good outings recently, or Nick Goody to get back to where he was in July through mid August.

Or have Carrasco avoid the long ball.

Those are the keys as baseball heads into the stretch run. The Indians are still in the thick of the race, but right now are on the outside looking in.

With a tougher schedule in the last two and a half weeks, Francona needs a few guys to step it up.

Tribe Leaking Oil, Particularly Hitting and Bullpen

Even when the Cleveland Indians were 11-1/2 games behind the Minnesota Twins, we did not give up hope.

We looked at the schedule in June and July and thought there was a very good chance the Tribe would right itself and be able to win some games. In early June, we advised fans to forget about Minnesota and focus on winning, win enough games to get a Wild Card spot.

The Indians did that, and right now have a half game lead over Oakland and Tampa Bay for the top Wild Card spot.

However, right now the last month of the season doesn’t have us feeling quite as confident.

One reason is injuries. Cleveland suffered a huge blow when Jose Ramirez, who was one of the sport’s hottest hitters went down with a broken hamate bone, and is likely lost for the season.

Then Tyler Naquin, hitting well in a platoon role in left, tore his ACL in Tampa Friday night, and he is gone for the remainder of the campaign.

As a whole, the offense was sputtering a bit in August, averaging 4.8 runs per game compared to 5.9 in July, and even down a tad from 4.9 in June, and losing Ramirez doesn’t help that.

Roberto Perez needs some time off, but his glove and handling of pitchers is so valuable, particularly with the young starting pitchers, that you want him in there. But his offense, such a key in the June/July resurgence, has disappeared. He’s hit just .139 (503 OPS) in August.

Yasiel Puig, who started off hot after joining the Tribe, is in a 5 for 45 skid (.111), knocking in just two runs in that timeframe. He hasn’t homered since August 16th in New York.

Jason Kipnis, another big key in the hot streak for the team, is also in a funk, going 8 for his last 48 (.167), although four of those hits have been home runs.

So, the lineup, which seemed lengthened with the acquisitions of Puig and Franmil Reyes, no longer is relentless.

Right now, after Carlos Santana in the #3 hole, the only hitter presenting much of a threat is Reyes, who has started to drive the ball, and is striking out a little bit less.

There is no question fatigue is a factor, particularly in Perez’ case, but if the Indians want to make the post-season, that trio, and Greg Allen too, as he replaced Naquin, have to pick up the slack offensively.

The bullpen has also been struggling lately, not being able to hold teams close twice in the last week (last Sunday vs. KC, last night vs. Tampa). We thought the loss of inning eater Trevor Bauer might cause a ripple effect, and perhaps it has.

However, the bullpen doesn’t have anyone beside Brad Hand that has “ungodly” stuff, and perhaps being a overused a bit causes the pinpoint control to be off a bit, and giving up hits is the result.

Maybe, and we stress maybe, Carlos Carrasco can help in this area.

The front office opted to bring up veterans in the initial call up today, bringing up terrible offensive utility man Ryan Flaherty and James Hoyt, who allowed more hits than innings pitched at AAA this season, along with Carrasco, and journeyman Dan Otero, and catcher Eric Haase.

If the Indians want to get to the playoffs, though, the offense simply has to pick it up. The way the game is played in 2019, having great pitching is not enough.