Counting Down The Magic Numbers And What About Cobb?

September baseball is so cool when the team you follow is a contender. Scoreboard watching. Counting down the magic number. It’s all part of following baseball at a time when football is starting to consume the public.

Especially here in northeast Ohio.

With the new playoff set up in baseball, there are several magic numbers to watch. First and foremost, most people look at winning the division, because that’s what fans have been trained to do.

Currently that number is 12. When the two teams behind you play each other, one wants one team to win two out of three, the worst-case scenario is for one team to sweep. But last weekend the Royals swept the Twins, meaning Kansas City picked up ground when the Guardians lost to two of three to the Dodgers.

With Cleveland now holding a share of the best record in the American League, we are sure the Guardians would like to finish with one of the two best records in the league, thus being able to advance right to the Division Series, which is best-of-five, with the Guards have the home field advantage.

Right now, Houston is in first place in the West, and Cleveland is 5.5 games ahead of them. This means the magic number to bypass the Wild Card Series, best-of-three, is 13, with the Astros finishing the regular season with three games at Progressive Field.

And of course, there is another magic number associated with just getting into the post-season “tournament”, meaning the Guardians would be no worse than the sixth seed in the AL, currently held by the Twins, who hold a three-game lead over Detroit and four over Seattle and Boston.

That number would be 8, since Cleveland took the season series from Detroit, 7-6.

The penultimate trip of the regular season was a success if only because the Guardians went into KC, their closest rivals, and took two of three. They salvaged one game in Los Angeles, and then did what had to be done in Chicago against the team that seems in line to shatter the record for losing, which was symbolic for the expansion New York Mets, who famously went 40-120.

Now, there is only one trip left, a three-game trek to St. Louis next weekend. Otherwise, Steven Vogt’s squad spends the rest of their slate at home, but they don’t get any days off until they return from the trip.

That means the pitching staff gets no rest for another week and a half. Because Gavin Williams couldn’t get out of the first last Saturday and Ben Lively took a line drive off the thigh and pitched just two innings Tuesday, and yesterday, Matthew Boyd couldn’t get through the 5th, so the bullpen has been taxed. Again.

And add to that, Alex Cobb’s problems. Yes, he’s pitched well in his last two starts, but he’s also been out with a cracked fingernail and a blister. Can he make some starts on turn in the last two and a half weeks?

We are sure the management would feel better about him in the post-season if he could do just that.

We didn’t anticipate conversations about the playoffs before this season started, but it is certainly fun to have them. Time to enjoy the games AND the scoreboard watching.

Tribe Offense Could Use More Walking.

There has been a lot of discussion over the past few seasons about “launch angle” and the way baseball has gone with the approach of hitting over defensive shifts and strikeouts are no big deal.

Maybe the pendulum is starting to switch.

Everyone’s friends, the Houston Astros might be changing the narrative. The Astros lead the major leagues in runs scored, yet have struck out the fewest times of any team. Toronto, who has scored the third most runs, have whiffed the next fewest.

While it is true the other teams in the top five rank more toward the middle of the pack in striking out (Dodgers-19th, Red Sox-14th, White Sox-13th), of the teams that fan the most, only Tampa Bay, whose hitters have struck out more than anyone, score more than the sports average (4.48 runs/game).

The next best team is Atlanta, who have scored the 7th most runs.

Let’s compare the Astros and Blue Jays offenses to the hometown team, the Cleveland Indians.

The Astros have six hitters who get regular at bats with on base percentages of over .350, and four players have more than 35 walks. As we just saw when the swept the Tribe in a four game series here, when their hitters get to two strikes, they have a more old school approach, looking to put the ball in play.

They also have seven batters with slugging averages over .450.

Toronto isn’t a team that walks a lot, with only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. having an on base percentage over .350, although Bo Bichette and Marcus Simien are close. They do have five hitters with slugging percentages over .450.

As for the Tribe, they have only one hitter with an OBP over .350, and that’s Bradley Zimmer, which is quite shocking, but he only has slightly over 100 plate appearances. Among players with over 200 PA’s, there is no one. Jose Ramirez’ .347 figure leads the team, with Franmil Reyes (who actually has just 197 times at the dish) next at .325.

As for slugging percentage, the Indians have just three players over .450: Jose Ramirez (.518), Reyes (.597), and Harold Ramirez (.451).

We know we are stating the obvious, but the Indians simply need more good hitters. To have an offense like Houston or Toronto, they need really three good hitters. More to the point, they need guys who don’t make outs.

The next best offenses in the AL, the White Sox and Red Sox breakdown as follows–Chicago has four solid on base hitters (over .350 OBP), but only two sluggers, although Tim Anderson’s slugging percentage is .447.

Boston has just two on base guys, but five sluggers, including Christian Arroyo, who Cleveland let go last season.

Cesar Hernandez and Amed Rosario have been okay, although the latter seems to be getting a lot of love from the baseball media lately. Hernandez has a .300 on base percentage, and although Rosario has good speed, and does hit the ball the other way, his OBP is just .307 because he doesn’t walk, which was his problem with the Mets.

Hernandez has had good years of getting on base, and is tied for the team lead in walks with Ramirez at 35. As a team, the Indians rank 13th in taking walks, and that needs to improve greatly for the team to score more often.

We are a huge believer in strike zone judgment being a big factor as to whether or not hitters have a solid long range future. That doesn’t bode well for the Cleveland lineup going forward. It’s also one of the reasons we would like to see more of Jordan Luplow.

Despite being on the IL since the end of May, and having only 121 plate appearances, he still ranks third on the team in walks with 21. It’s a skill this team needs.

We aren’t saying it’s the only way to improve the offense, but it’s a start in the right direction. Walking is good, the Tribe should do more of it.

Tribe Key In Off-Season? Improve OBP.

The Cleveland Indians finished third in the American League in runs scored in 2018, and you can make a pretty good argument that dropping to seventh in this category this past season is the reason they were sitting at home.

The Tribe was third in on base percentage in ’18 and fourth in slugging percentage, the key components to offensive baseball these days. In 2019 though, the Indians dropped to 6th in slugging, and down to 8th in on base percentage.

The latter figure is something Cleveland needs to work on for the 2020 campaign, and a reason we wished the organization would have gone in a new direction with the hitting coach.

The list of Indians’ hitters with an OBP over .350 is very short: Carlos Santana, Yasiel Puig, Jordan Luplow, and Mike Freeman. Only Santana was in the lineup all year on an everyday basis.

By contrast, the Astros, whose offense is relentless, have these players over the .350 benchmark: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, George Springer, and two other players who are reserves.

Boston was second in on base average (behind Houston), and had these players over .350: Brock Holt, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez.

If you think we are being picky with the .350 figure, please be advised that the Tribe didn’t have anyone else over .340 either. The next best OBP was Francisco Lindor at .335.

To be fair, had Jose Ramirez hit higher than .255 this season, he would have hit the .350 level, because his strikeout to walk ratio (74:52) was solid.

To us, this indicates the lack of strike zone awareness throughout the roster, and this leads to hitters getting themselves out by swinging at bad pitches.

Sometimes this improves through experience, which is why we aren’t concerned right now with Oscar Mercado walking just 28 times in 482 plate appearances. If this number stays there next season, it could indicate a problem.

We have already touched on Lindor, whose walk rate was the lowest since his rookie year, and he got himself out plenty in clutch situations last season, swinging at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, sometimes when he was ahead in the count.

If we were Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff, we would be focused on getting some guys who can get on base to help the offense next season.

It might start by giving Luplow, who had a .372 OBP in his minor league career, a shot at an everyday spot in the lineup.

And Lindor is too good of a hitter not to learn from this season and make pitchers come to him instead of helping them out.

Besides, if you can get a solid hitter who can get on base, you can get the shortstop out of the leadoff spot, and hit him in the #2 hole or lower.

Together with Santana, who has always been an on base machine, and Ramirez returning to somewhere close to his norm (he has three straight seasons over .350 from 2016-18), it would give the Indians four players who can get on base.

We would also have someone work with Franmil Reyes on his strike zone judgment. If he could layoff bad pitches more, he would be an anchor in the middle of the lineup.

Against good teams and particularly good pitchers, you have to make them work, you can’t help them out by swinging at borderline strikes.

Remember the success the Indians had vs. Justin Verlander with the Tigers? They made him throw a lot of pitches early in games, and even if they didn’t have success against him, they got him out of the game.

On base percentage is the key stat for the Indians to improve on this off-season. Not saying it’s a cure all, but it will help the offense be more “relentless”, for sure.

Other AL Contenders Have Dominated Vs. Bad Teams Too

The Cleveland Indians, thought by many to be out of the playoff competition in mid May, start today’s game against Kansas City 20 games over the .500 mark at 62-42, and have a four game lead over the second wild card spot ahead of Boston and Oakland.

Where they once trailed by 11-1/2 games in the division standings, they are today just one game behind Minnesota in the Central Division standings.

They have accomplished this by simply dominating the lower echelon teams in the American League. The Tribe has gone 37-11 against the five worst teams in the AL: Kansas City, Detroit, Baltimore, Toronto, and Seattle.

There are those who will say this is fool’s gold. The Indians aren’t really contenders, they are the product of a soft schedule and cannot compete with the best teams in the league.

This ignores their 10-9 record against Boston, Houston, Minnesota, and the New York Yankees, all of whom Cleveland will play in the next three weeks.

In the interest of fairness, the Tribe is 2-8 vs. Oakland and Tampa, two other contenders for the playoffs, but all of those games came before this resurgence started after a loss to Boston on Memorial Day.

Since then, Cleveland has gone 36-15 in a stretch that included two games with Boston, three with the Yankees, and six with the Twins.

Going 37-11 against any five teams is a challenge. Heck, it’s Major League Baseball. It isn’t supposed to be easy, no matter how bad the competition.

At the end of June, the Indians lost a series on the road to Baltimore, a team certain to lose more than 100 games this season.

We looked at the other playoff contenders to see how they fared against the five teams Terry Francona’s squad has dominated.

The Yankees have piled up a 10-2 record against the Orioles and overall is 25-8 against the lowly five. They lost two of three to Detroit, where the Indians have won 12 out of 13.

Houston has played the least number of games against this group, mainly because only one of them is in the Western Division. The Astros have fared similar to Cleveland, going 18-4, winning nine of ten vs. Seattle.

Minnesota has the same number of losses (11), with 27 wins. They won all six games against Baltimore, but are a combined 16-9 vs. KC, DET, and TOR, where the Indians are 28-7.

They have a lot of games coming up against the Royals and Tigers, playing them in a combined 20 more games.

Boston has played the second most games against the quintet, but they haven’t fared as well as Cleveland, going 30-16. They’ve lost six games against the Blue Jays and five more to the Orioles. Perhaps they have an issue against birds.

Tampa Bay is 20-10, going just 4-3 against the Royals and 8-4 vs. Baltimore. They have yet to play the Mariners, and have 18 games left vs. the Orioles and Blue Jays.

Oakland caught Seattle early in the year when they were hot, so they are 8-7 with four to play. Toronto has also been tough, taking all six from the A’s, leading to a 17-14 record.

So, outside of Oakland, all of the contenders have beaten the living daylights out of the also ran teams.

The difference for the Indians, is they only have nine games remaining against the Royals and Tigers, and are done with the other three squads.

The Indians shouldn’t be condemned for beating the “bums”, they simply are doing what they should.

If they can hold their own through the middle of August after playing Houston, Minnesota, Boston, and the Yankees, they should be just fine.

And that’s assuming everyone else can match Cleveland’s dominance against the lowly five.

A Tough Series Ahead For Tribe

Tomorrow afternoon, the Cleveland Indians start their quest to end a 70 year drought without a World Series title.

To make matters tougher, they embark on the journey having to take on the defending World Series titlists, the Houston Astros, in the best of five Division Series.

We could be completely wrong on this, because well, baseball, but we feel it will be a very difficult series for the Tribe to emerge victorious.

The Astros lead the American League in run differential, meaning them, not the 108 win Boston Red Sox are the best team in the AL.

The Indians’ hallmark is their pitching, particularly their starters. Their staff ERA is 3.77, ranking 4th in the American League. However, Houston led the league in that category, more than a half run per game less at 3.11.

Cleveland has scored more runs, but only 21 more than the Astros on the season.

The teams are very similar offensively. The Indians scored three runs or less 58 times, which is over 1/3rd of their games. That seems like a lot, right?

Except the Astros did the same thing more often, having 64 games with three runs or less.

Using the 350/450/800 standard for being a very good offensive player, the Indians have three such players (Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Jose Ramirez), while the Astros have two in Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman.

Houston comes in as the hotter team, going 21-6 after September 1st, while the Indians went 14-14. But as we found out last year, being hot coming into the playoffs makes absolutely no difference.

As we said, both teams have exceptional starting pitching, and in our opinion, that’s what the series will come down to. Corey Kluber won 20 games this year, but at times has appeared mortal this season. His game one mound opponent, Justin Verlander, quite frankly had a better season.

The two teams met seven times in the regular season, with Houston having a 4-3 advantage.

In Houston, all three games were close. The Indians were either tied or ahead through 6-1/2 innings in each contest, and a tired starter gave up runs late. Remember, at that time, the Cleveland bullpen was having major issues.

At Progressive Field, Houston won in blowout fashion in the first two games, the latter with the Astros scoring 11 runs in the last two innings.

Even in the extra inning win the day before Memorial Day, the Tribe led 3-2 after seven, before Houston scored six in the 8th, matched by a five run rally in the bottom of the ninth by the Indians.

In that game, Trevor Bauer was left in to throw a season high 127 pitches.

So, this series could hinge on how well Allen, Miller, and Hand do. Only Allen was fully healthy at the time. Miller was about to go on the DL, and Hand was in San Diego.

If Ramirez doesn’t start hitting in this series, the offense could depend on whether or not Josh Donaldson can contribute.

The record says the Astros are better than the Tribe, but last year it said the Indians were the better team than New York.

We say it will be a great series, and these two teams are more evenly matched than it appears record wise.

If we have to make a prediction, we would go with the Astros in four. We also can’t tell you how wrong we would like to be.

Does Making Contact Lead To Winning?

In the new age of baseball, striking out does not have the negative connotation it once had.

For years, the single season record for striking out in a season was 189 by Bobby Bonds in 1970. That mark stood for 34 years, until Adam Dunn whiffed 195 times in 2004.

Dunn’s record stood for three seasons, when Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard fanned 199 times in 2007, and the next year Mark Reynolds went down swinging in 204 of his at bats.

The following year, 2009, Reynolds struck out 223 times which is the current record, although the White Sox’ Yoan Moncada could threaten that mark this season, currently sitting at 181 punch outs.

Last week, when the Indians took on the Red Sox, it was noted on one of the broadcasts that the Tribe strikes out less than anyone in the American League, and Boston ranks 4th in that category.

So, does making contact lead to winning baseball and scoring more runs?

In the AL, of the six teams contending for the five playoff spots available, the top four in making contact are among those squads. In order they are Cleveland (950 strikeouts), Houston (989), Seattle (997), and Boston (1013).

The other two teams, New York ranks 4th from the bottom and Oakland is 6th worst in making contact.

Boston (1st), Cleveland (3rd), and Houston (4th) are among the leaders in the AL in scoring runs. Seattle is 11th.

The Yankees and A’s lead the league in home runs, which coincides with an all or nothing approach, although the Indians are 3rd, and the Red Sox and Astros are in the top half of the Junior Circuit.

In the National League, Pittsburgh is best at making contact, but they are followed by Atlanta (leading the East), Washington (a game under .500), Chicago (leading the Central) and St. Louis (leading the Wild Card).

Playoff contenders Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Arizona, and Los Angeles are among the teams who strikeout the most, which is something to watch down the stretch.

Of the teams avoiding the “K”, the Cubs, Braves, Nationals, and Cardinals are in the top six in the NL in runs scored.

The Dodgers and Brewers lead the NL in homers, and the Phillies are 6th with their contact is secondary approach, but St. Louis is 3rd and Washington is 5th in long balls.

If you watch the Dodgers at all, you notice right away that a number of their players swing for the downs a lot.

Perhaps if a team that is more contact oriented succeeds in the playoffs again, we will start to see teams look for hitters that put the ball in play.

The Indians’ drafted players with an emphasis on a contact approach in last June’s draft. They used Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, two guys who developed their power a few years after beginning their professional careers, as examples.

They seem to be searching for players who have a natural ability to make contact, and then teach them how to drive the ball. Apparently, they believe it is easier to do that than teach a guy with a high strikeout rate to make contact.

It will be interesting to watch the fates of the clubs like the Yankees, A’s, Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies as baseball heads into the last month of the season.

If they fail in the post-season, will it signal a shift back to hitters who put the ball in play over time? It might be a good sign for the sport going forward.