Trading Civale? Unless More Moves Follow, Don’t Like It.

We don’t know what else is to come by 6 PM today, but it looks like the Cleveland Guardians’ front office has decided to kick the can down the road again.

They traded their most experienced starting pitcher, Aaron Civale to Tampa Bay for AAA first baseman Kyle Manzardo, who was the 60th ranked prospect according to Baseball America coming into this season.

Manzardo hit .327 between high A and AA last season with 22 homers and an OPS of 1043. This year, playing at AAA, his numbers aren’t so good, .238 with 11 dingers and an OPS of 783.

Here are the oddities to us. First, the Guardians’ second best hitter happens to play first base in Josh Naylor. Manzardo has never played the outfield in college or as a professional.

Second, the Guardians are down three starting pitchers to injuries and are relying on three rookies and they moved their best remaining veteran starter. Who replaces Civale in the rotation? That’s why another deal has to happen.

And lastly, hasn’t Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff learned about dealing with Tampa? We feel like we’ve seen this movie before, only the left-handed power hitting prospect was named Jake Bauer.

We understand that’s not fair to Manzardo, but it sure sent a shiver up our spine.

Are the Guardians a great team this season? No. But as we said to someone yesterday, you know what they call the person who finishes last in their class in medical school? That would be doctor.

Did people in 2006 think the St. Louis Cardinals, who finished 83-79, were going to win the World Series? How about the 1987 Minnesota Twins, who won the AL West with an 85-77 mark?

It’s a long shot for sure, but you cannot win the lottery unless you buy a ticket. No one thought the Guardians would get to game seven of the 2016 World Series with injuries to Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, but they did it.

So, on face, we don’t understand the move, nor do we want to hear any “big picture” stuff.

We just wrote on Sunday, the Guardians’ biggest weaknesses involved the bullpen and an offense that still ranks 12th in the American League in runs scored per game.

This deal did nothing to address either of those problem areas. It might help in 2024, but not now. And it is much easier to keep building for the future than it is to win now.

We are sure Civale’s injury history scares the front office and that is probably the biggest motivation to move him. They could have done that this winter.

We weren’t asking for Cleveland to trade players like Brayan Rocchio, George Valera, Juan Brito, or Chase DeLauter to get marginal big league players. They could get them with lower tier prospects and help this year’s team get to the playoffs.

Now, if the front office has some more deals and they can get a starting pitcher to replace Civale or maybe even get two guys to not only replace the traded pitcher and protect the young arms brought up this season, then fine.

Hope we see some more moves by tomorrow night at 6 PM. Because if the front office doesn’t improve the 2023 team by then, put up the sign at Progressive Field:

FREE BEER TOMORROW!

Why Guards Aren’t Dealing Prospects

The Cleveland Guardians won the American League Central Division title last season, winning 92 games. The Cleveland Guardians also have one of the top five farm systems in baseball. Outside of trading Nolan Jones, who probably was no longer one of the system’s top ten prospects, and moving Owen Miller, who spent the entire season on the big-league roster, the Guards haven’t addressed the seeming glut of prospects about to hit Cleveland. It seems that many teams when in the situation the Guardians are in, like to package a number of prospects to get proven big-league talent. Think about what San Diego has done over the past few years. Unfortunately for the Padres, their excessive prospects are having success, but here in Cleveland. Let’s examine the top five prospects in the Guards’ system: pitchers Daniel Espino and Gavin Williams, catcher Bo Naylor, OF George Valera, and SS Brayan Rocchio. Espino, a right-hander and Cleveland’s first round pick in 2019, was injured much of last season throwing only 19 innings, albeit dominating one, fanning 35 hitters. Williams, another righty and also a first rounder in 2021, appears to be the definition of a horse at 6’6″ and 240 pounds. He pitched 115 innings at Lake County and Akron, with a 1.96 ERA and 149 punchouts. Now, the big-league situation comes into play. Shane Bieber, the ace of the staff, is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2024 season. After winning the division, the Guardians aren’t trading him this off-season, but with the dollars spent this winter, it isn’t a reach to see Bieber being moved next winter. It would seem Espino and Williams would be ready then. If Bieber agreed to an extension with the Guardians, maybe the front office would entertain a deal for their top two prospects. We wouldn’t unless the return was substantial. We would be surprised if Naylor opened the season on the big club, but we won’t be shocked if he’s getting regular playing time by the beginning of June. He is the catcher of the future. We feel the same about Rocchio being the shortstop of the future, the heir apparent to Amed Rosario. We believe the organization likes him better than Gabriel Arias or Tyler Freeman, who will likely battle in spring to see who is the reserve infielder. We have been hearing about Valera for years. A left-handed hitter, he has plus power, and has always shown patience at the plate. However, in 2021 between Lake County and Akron, he fanned 88 times with 66 walks. In ’22, with more at bats between Akron and Columbus, he whiffed 145 times with 74 walks. Not bad, but the ratio is much worse. That would make him the most likely candidate to be moved in a trade for big-league talent. The front office is gambling he will make adjustments and take some of the swing-and-miss out of his game, because if the ratio gets worse, so will his ranking as a prospect. Prospects #6 through #10 are: Pitchers Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee, SS Angel Martinez, OF Chase DeLauter, and OF Will Brennan. It’s more likely the Guards would trade someone from this list, but DeLauter hasn’t even played a professional game yet, and Brennan would seem to be insurance for the big club in the outfield. We are firmly NOT in the mindset that all prospects will turn out to be the next Mike Trout. We are just trying to explain what we think is the front office’s reasoning for not packaging a couple of these guys. How many players on the division winners have proven track records? It’s fewer than you think. Perhaps that’s why no deals as of yet.

Dreaming Of Soto In Cleveland (It Won’t Happen, But We Can Dream)

By now, everyone is aware that Washington Nationals’ slugger Juan Soto will likely be traded before the August 2nd trade deadline. His agent, who quite enjoys seeing his name in lights, turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Nats.

Washington will be looking for a boatload of prospects in exchange for the 23-year-old (he won’t turn 24 until after this season) slugger, and so the Cleveland Guardians, who may have the deepest farm system in the game were linked to Soto in some articles.

Now, let’s start by saying we understand the likelihood of Cleveland dealing for Soto is extremely slim. That’s not how this organization has done business over the years. Heck, Jose Ramirez left a lot of cash on the table to remain in town for hopefully, the rest of his career.

However, should the Guardians be interested, especially with the supposed influx of cash coming into the team from new minority owner David Blitzer?

If ever any team would make a gigantic financial commitment to a young player, it would seem to be Juan Soto, who again will start next season at age 24.

Soto led the National League last season in on base percentage at .465, and has already belted 118 home runs in his five years in the big leagues.

And he’s 23-years-old. The prime seasons for a typical major league baseball player are age 27 to 29, meaning Soto should still be getting better over the next few seasons. He was a seven win player last season.

If there is anyone a team like the Guardians would be willing to deal top prospects from a loaded farm system, it would be someone like Soto, and it’s not like Cleveland would have to deal every one of their current top ten either.

We talk ourselves into thinking that every minor player who puts up big numbers is going to wind up playing their way into Cooperstown. That’s simply not the case.

Here were Cleveland’s top prospects five years ago (2017):

Francisco Mejia
Bradley Zimmer
Triston McKenzie
Brady Aiken
Bobby Bradley
Yu Chang
Will Benson
Nolan Jones
Erik Gonzalez
Greg Allen

Granted, in 2017, the Cleveland farm system was not nearly as good and deep as it is now. Certainly, McKenzie has paid off, and hopefully Jones will too. And Mejia was used to get Brad Hand.

You have to figure Washington would want George Valera in a deal for Soto, so if you packaged him with say, Gabriel Arias and Logan Allen in the trade, you still have a very good prospect pool to work with.

Everybody loves Valera, and with good reason. At 21, he’s hitting .272 with 13 homers (857 OPS) at AA Akron, in a pitchers’ league. But will he ever be as good as Soto?

The equalizer is you would get six years of service from Valera, while Soto has only 2-1/2 years before he is eligible for free agency and with his agent being who he is, he’s going to take that route.

We have two points here. First, not all prospects, no matter how highly we think of them turn out to be superstars.

Second, if you can move prospects, even highly regarded ones, for a young, proven superstar, it should be considered. Let’s say Soto winds up being as good as Mike Trout. What would you give up for the last five or six years Trout put together. (Don’t consider the Angels’ record, that’s not Trout’s fault).

It’s Time To Start Thinking Baseball, But…

Baseball’s international signing period started this week and is getting all kinds of attention, more than normal.

The signings are very important, to be sure. It’s how the Guardians signed Jose Ramirez, and more recently several of their top prospects, OF George Valera, SS Brayan Rocchio, INF Jose Tena, and power hitter Jhonkensy Noel joined the organization in the same manner.

But it’s getting more publicity this year because it’s the only baseball we can talk about with the lockout imposed by the owners still in place. It doesn’t help that the two sides have met once since the calendar flipped to 2022 either.

Spring training should be starting in less than a month, with the sentence baseball fans love to hear, “Pitchers and catchers report on either February 12th or 13th”. It seems very unlikely that will happen as of today.

The first exhibition game for the Guardians is supposed to be February 26th, but unless negotiations speed up drastically, that’s unlikely as well.

This is the time of year Guards’ fans should be talking about the various position battles around the diamond and do any of the hard throwing young arms out of the bullpen have a shot at making the Opening Day roster.

Instead, the ray of hope that gets fans of the grand ol’ pastime through the winter isn’t there. The hot stove season has been turned off.

Fans should be discussing the make-up of the Guardians’ current 40-man roster, which includes 14 players who have never played even one inning of a major league game. Teams can keep 26 players, so does that mean all of the men who have big league experience are a lock to be at Progressive Field to open the season? We doubt that it does.

What does Terry Francona do about the middle infield? Amed Rosario did very well with the bat last season, but defensively, he’s not an everyday shortstop. So, what does the organization do?

They could move Andres Gimenez back there, and he should be better defensively, or do they give rookie Gabriel Arias, who spent all year at AAA a shot? And then what happens at second base?

Does Rosario go there? Or does the team look at Owen Miller, Yu Chang, or even Ernie Clement, who appears to be more of a utility man at this point.

Or does Rosario get traded to open up the spot for Gimenez or Arias. Or do two of this trio get moved to make room for Rocchio in 2023?

This is the speculation and discussion that aren’t at the forefront right now because there is nothing going on in the game.

We should be talking about the Cleveland outfield, and who will play in the corner spots surrounding Myles Straw? Will Tito lean on the retreads of Bradley Zimmer and Oscar Mercado, or will he entrust the high on base percentages of rookies Steven Kwan and Richie Palacios. The latter had a strong Arizona Fall League season, and could figure in the mix at 2B too.

Will Josh Naylor be ready for Opening Day and will he return to the outfield, or will he move to first base and challenge Bobby Bradley and/or Chang?

Again, spring training is supposed to start very soon. Our guess is when (fingers crossed) an agreement is reached, a flurry of moves will be made by all teams. We don’t believe for a minute that discussions haven’t been going on.

Until then, all baseball fans can do is hope that some intelligence prevails, and baseball can start next month. For people who live in the northeast, it’s one way we use to get through the snow and cold of winter.

A Flurry Of Moves Highlight Guardians’ First Day

Well, on the first day of the official name change of the Cleveland baseball team, the Guardians made a bevy of roster moves, designed to get the squad ready for the Rule 5 Draft.

Several of the minor leaguers were no brainers to be added, notably INF Tyler Freeman, OF George Valera, and INF Brayan Rocchio, all among the top 10 prospects in the organization.

Others figured to be added, like C Bryan Lavistida, two players making a name for themselves in the Arizona Fall League, INF Richie Palacios and Jose Tena, who won the batting title in the prospect oriented league, and P Cody Morris, who could pitch in the major leagues next season.

You wonder if Tena would have been added had he not had such a great AFL season.

What is very curious is that 14 of the 40 players on this roster have no major league experience, so you have to wonder are more moves in the works, if and when moves can be made due to the absence of a collective bargaining agreement.

The most notable players designated for assignment were OF Harold Ramirez and Daniel Johnson.

Ramirez received 339 at bats with the team in 2021, hitting .268 with 7 HR and 41 RBI (703 OPS), decent numbers, but was a defensive liability. Johnson, who was acquired in the Yan Gomes trade with Washington, hit .221 with 4 home runs, in just 77 at bats.

With all of the problems the Cleveland outfield had offensively in 2021, why Johnson didn’t get more of a chance was a head scratcher. In fact, we was sent down in the midst of a period where he was 8 for his last 28.

Out of the remainder of players released, the biggest surprise here was Kyle Nelson, who had a 3.72 ERA over his minor league career, but pitched just 10 innings at the big league level. We would guess the emergence of Anthony Gose, aced out Nelson.

We were happy that Steven Kwan was added. The left-handed hitting outfielder is an on base machine, getting on base at a .380 clip in the minor leagues. We were hoping he would have been added to the big league roster in September.

However, Oscar Gonzalez was not added. Gonzalez, who will be 24 years old next season, belted 31 homers at the AA and AAA levels this past season, and our guess is he is a good candidate to be drafted by another organization.

Somehow, Bradley Zimmer and Oscar Mercado survived this purge. We hope Gonzalez isn’t lost because of the blind loyalty to two players who really haven’t been productive for awhile.

Zimmer got his biggest look since his rookie year of 2017, and still had the same problems that have plagued him throughout his career, namely, he can’t make contact.

He fanned a whopping 122 times in 348 plate appearances, hitting .227 with a 669 OPS. In his career, totaling 754 at bats, the soon to be 29-year-old former first round draft pick has a 658 OPS.

We get that his tools are enticing. He has tremendous speed and good power when he connects, but that isn’t often. He’s a great athlete, but he’s just not a baseball player. And it’s not like he has age on his side as a prospect.

Mercado will be 27 next season, and had a very good rookie season in 2019 with a 761 OPS. Since then, he is 59 for 300, a .198 batting average. He did walk 21 times in ’21, but hit just .224, so his on base percentage was just .300. His OPS was just 669.