How Does Rotation Check Out For Guardians in ’24?

Most of the focus in looking forward to 2024 for the Cleveland Guardians has centered around improving the hitting and rightly so. It is well documented that the Guards are 12th in the American League in runs scored, and make no mistake, in the regular season, if you can’t score you don’t win.

Of the teams scoring above the league average in runs per game, only the Red Sox and Angels are below the .500 mark. You have to put runs on the board.

But what about the pitching, which for years has been the strength of the Guardians’ franchise. The organization likes to refer to the “pitching factory”.

(Our comment has been to ask when the “hitting factory” will be built, and we get that is being snarky).

With the injuries to Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill this season, a new core of young pitchers has emerged. Tanner Bibee (10-4, 2.98 ERA with 141 strikeouts in 142 innings), Gavin Williams (3-5, 3.29 ERA, 81 Ks in 82 IP), and Logan Allen (7-7, 3.60 ERA, 118 Ks in 122.1 IP) have certainly earned spots in next season’s rotation.

The biggest question mark has to be the health of McKenzie, who has made just two starts this season and with a strained ligament in his elbow, it wouldn’t be a shock if Tommy John surgery is in his future and that would put him out for the season.

That brings us to Bieber, who has missed significant parts of the season in two of the last three seasons and will be a free agent following the ’24 season. He isn’t the guy who won the Cy Young Award in 2020, but he still is a quality starter. Would he be interested in a short-term extension because of the injuries?

And you have Quantrill, who’s last three starts since coming back from a shoulder issue have been very good. Many people complain about him, but really, if he’s your fifth starter, you have a pretty solid rotation.

And you still have Hunter Gaddis, Xzavion Curry, and southpaw Joey Cantillo (6-4, 4.09 ERA, 142 Ks in 114 IP, but with 63 walks at AAA and AA this season).

Rotation depth is needed as we saw with the club this season.

It is doubtful that Cleveland can put together a package for Lucas Giolito this winter that would satisfy him and his agent this winter, so we would consider that a longshot.

But if the front office is doing their job (and we have confidence) they have to figure one of the young trio will fall off a bit from outstanding rookie seasons.

We would also consider moving Eli Morgan back into a starting role. Morgan had a 3.45 ERA in the second half of 2021 as a starter, striking out 49 hitters in 44.1 innings. We would do this because Morgan gives up too many long balls to flourish in the bullpen.

If Bieber is dealt and McKenzie cannot pitch in ’24, the front office will have to explore other options for the rotation, perhaps a large one-year contract for Giolito or rolling the dice with Gaddis, Curry, and Morgan.

The starting rotation is easily the strength of the team, but the organization cannot get complacent.

And remember one thing Terry Francona has always said: When you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.

Inconsistent Guardians’ Bullpen Makes Everyone Worried

Show me a bad bullpen and I’ll show you a bad team. That’s the old baseball adage. We would guess the corollary to that would be, show me an inconsistent bullpen and I’ll show you an inconsistent team.

Which brings us to the Cleveland Guardians.

The other day, Terry Francona said his bullpen had gone through a rough patch over the last week. We hope that manager speak, because the truth is the Guardians’ relievers have been hit or miss for about the last month.

The organization will tell you the bullpen ERA ranks second in all of baseball, and it does, ranking behind only the Yankees with a 3.48 ERA.

Detractors will tell you the relief corps is gassed, but they rank 18th in the majors in innings pitched.

They do have the 4th best batting average against at .223.

There are two issues at work here. The first is because the Guardians are currently leaning on four rookie starters, Francona and pitching coach Carl Willis are leaning on the relievers quite a bit. Having the cover sometimes four or even five innings, not only put a great burden on the crew, but also the more relievers used, the greater chance one of them doesn’t have it that night.

The second thing is Francona, like most managers, likes to have a pecking order with his relievers, so they know when they can expect to get into a game.

We know Emmanuel Clase has the ninth, but he would like to have one or two pitchers who know they will go in the 8th, and so on down the line.

It hasn’t worked that way lately.

Trevor Stephan is the preferred guy to pitch the 8th, but since June 1st, he’s been in 19 games, and allowed runs in six of them. He also has pitched just six innings where he has retired the side in order.

Last Sunday, he came into a game with a three-run lead, and after retiring the first hitter, he walked the next two. That led to a four-run inning, and an eventual loss for Cleveland.

By the way, we have (and most people have) two rules for relief pitchers: Don’t walk hitters and don’t allow the long ball.

Friday night was the kind of thing that makes you wonder how you can figure this game out.

After Gavin Williams had to leave after four innings, Eli Morgan pitched the fifth and faced two batters in the 6th, allowing a single to one of them.

The Guards went to Tim Herrin, a lefty, because Sam Hentges has been scuffling lately, and Herrin over the last month had pitched 8.2 innings, allowing just two runs, striking out 10 and walking just two.

The rookie walked the next three hitters, forcing in a run.

So, Francona went to Nick Sandlin, who got out of the inning. Sandlin over the last month had fired 9.1 frames allowing just one run, and fanning 13, walking just three.

He gave up two homers in the 7th. They were the first he’d allowed since June 17th.

Stephan relieved and you could feel fans wincing at the move.

He put down all five batters he faced.

The point is right now, the Guardians really need the bullpen crew to step up because of the inning restrictions put on the rookie starters, but Francona can’t feel too confident in bringing anyone in, because he just doesn’t know what will happen.

If this is a slump, eventually everyone will return to form and Cleveland’s bullpen will be one of the best in the game. If they continue to fail, then the season could go south in a hurry.

It’s not easy at times to manage a major league baseball team.

Hopefully Bieber Injury Doesn’t Deter Moves At Deadline

The Cleveland Guardians didn’t exactly provide a lot of good news for their fans coming out of the All-Star break.

First came the news that Shane Bieber is experiencing some soreness in his right forearm and was placed on the injured list yesterday. At the very least, the former Cy Young Award winner will miss two starts.

And then the bullpen was mollywhopped by Texas in the opening game of the three game series after Aaron Civale gave Cleveland five innings. The curious thing was he was removed after throwing just 79 pitches.

The bigger news is Bieber, obviously, since the rotation is already without Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill. Yes, the rookies, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen have done yeoman’s work so far this season, but as everyone reminds us, they will all be on innings restrictions this season.

We know many people will say this is a sign that the team should be sellers at the upcoming trade deadline, but isn’t the biggest potential trade chip the Guardians have Bieber?

Our fear is that Bieber’s injury will prevent the front office from making a move to help this year’s team, which is still just a game and a half out of first place in the AL Central Division.

Standing pat would be a terrible idea.

First, and this has nothing to do with the team on the field, but attendance is up at Progressive Field, and we fear doing nothing to improve the roster will damper any excitement created during the year.

The other issue is the organization’s bloated situation in the middle infield. Cleveland continues to use free agent to be Amed Rosario at shortstop, with Tyler Freeman and Gabriel Arias still on the big league roster and Brayan Rocchio in AAA.

They haven’t really found out much about any of those players, with perhaps the exception of Arias, who has a whopping total of 154 plate appearances this season. By the way, we agree that’s not enough.

At some point, they have to convert some of these players into pieces that can help the big club win some games.

Down three starters, why not move some pieces for a pitcher who can provide some quality innings down the stretch. They could use that even if Bieber is going to be back sooner than later.

A year ago, the Guardians had one of the top farm systems in baseball, but outside of last year’s first round pick OF Chase DeLauter and Rocchio, most of their prize prospects have graduated.

Southpaw Joey Cantillo is another top prospect, and he may be here soon if the injuries on the staff continue.

In the past week, Baseball Prospectus put out their mid-season top 50 prospects plus 10 other players. No Guardian was listed. Last season, the same publication had four Cleveland farmhands listed, including Bibee and Williams. Daniel Espino and George Valera were the others.

Prospects lose their value quickly in baseball. Valera was looked upon as a big time power bat, and he still may be, but he’s hitting .187 (545 OPS) at AAA, and in his time at the highest level of the minors over the past two seasons, his OPS is 698.

The next two weeks before the trade deadline will be key. If the Guardians continue to hang in the divisional race, will the front office help out the current roster?

Or will they point toward 2024. We aren’t asking the organization to move players like Williams, Bibee, and Allen. But they have some assets they can move. Now is the time.

Trading Bieber Might Be Inevitable, But There Are Consequences.

In a recent edition of The Plain Dealer, Terry Pluto wrote about why the Guardians need to trade pitcher Shane Bieber.

We understand that Pluto has good sources within the organization and when he writes about something, there is a pretty good likelihood that it is going to happen.

However, we could not disagree more with a Bieber deal unless one thing comes back in return, or is acquired in a separate deal, and that is a veteran starting pitcher to replace the former Cy Young Award winner.

We understand Bieber is not going to sign a long term contract here, so from that standpoint, the Guardians should not lose him in free agency, so a trade will be coming. We simply would wait until the off-season.

As we write this, the Cleveland Guardians lead the American League Central Division standings by a half game and despite all the jokes about the division, they are only 3-1/2 games out of a wild card spot.

It is pretty cavalier of an organization who hasn’t won a World Series in 75 years to toss away a chance to get in the playoffs, which they would likely be doing unless they don’t get another starter to replace their ace.

Cleveland is currently down two starters in Triston McKenzie (elbow) and Cal Quantrill (shoulder) and have three rookies in the rotation that they are managing innings with: Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams.

Bibee pitched 132 innings last year in A/AA, so conventional wisdom says the front office would like to keep him around 152 this year. He’s at 85. Allen threw the same number last season, and he’s currently at 79 in ’23.

Williams pitched 115 innings in 2022, so his limit is probably around 135 and he’s thrown 79 to date this season.

By the way, Bieber is currently third in the AL in innings pitched and by the time he is done pitching today, he will either be second or first. And the Guardians need someone to soak up innings.

Despite complaints about reduced velocity, Bieber is still a pretty effective starting pitcher. He’s allowed just 104 hits in the 110.1 innings he has thrown and has fanned 89 batters vs. just 33 walks. His ERA is 3.66.

If they don’t get a proven starter in another trade or one in a deal involving Bieber, just who is going to pitch for the Guardians after they trade him? Oh yes, they could also bring up another rookie in Joey Cantillo, who is pitching in the Futures Game this weekend, but he would be under the same innings restrictions.

And does anyone really want to see Daniel Norris taking the mound every fifth day for a team trying to get a post-season berth?

One issue though, Cleveland hasn’t traded for an established starting pitcher since Derek Lowe in 2012.

Unless this is going to be a move, like the trades of Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger, where the Guardians are going to kick the can down the road again. Besides the 75 years without a title thing, it’s a bold strategy for a team that won 92 games a year ago and their best player, who committed to the franchise, is 30 years old.

Another factor is how it plays in the clubhouse if they trade their best pitcher and don’t replace him. At some point, it has to wear on players when the front office keeps pointing toward next season.

That’s only if they don’t get someone who can be a relative facsimile of Bieber in terms of pitching a lot of effective innings. We know trading Bieber at some point is inevitable, but doing it while the Guardians very much have a chance to make the post-season seems to ring hollow to us.

Shining A Spotlight On Plesac

The Major League Baseball season is still young, very young in fact. However, if you are a player with a poor recent track record, you still start the season with something to prove.

That’s the way we feel about Guardians’ starting pitcher Zach Plesac, whose first start on Monday didn’t go as well as he wanted, no doubt, and we are sure the coaching staff and front office were disappointed as well.

Plesac burst on the scene somewhat unexpectedly in 2019, after just 14 starts at the AA and AAA levels. That season, he made six starts at Akron, compiling a 0.96 ERA, and then was promoted to Columbus, where in four starts, he went 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA.

He made his major league debut in Fenway Park on May 28th, throwing 5-1/3 innings allowing just one run, and finished the year with an 8-6 record and 3.81 ERA in 116 innings.

The following season was the COVID shortened year, but Plesac pitched well, going 4-2 with a 2.28 ERA in eight starts. However, there was an incident where he broke the virus protocol by leaving the team hotel in Chicago after a Guardians’ win.

Since then, the right-hander has made 50 starts, going 13-18 with a 4.58 ERA, and that includes a 3-12 mark last season. Plus, he’s suffered self-inflicted injuries the past two seasons, both from letting his temper get away from him.

We figured when he broke a bone in his hand punching the mound in Seattle last August (it was done in a very good start), the front office would make a move during the off-season to give the pitcher a fresh start somewhere else.

But a move wasn’t made and the Guardians are trying everything to salvage him as a quality big league starter.

The Guardians seem to have a profile for their players. They like solid humans, who grind it out, putting the team above all else. We don’t know Plesac personally (obviously), but he seems like he doesn’t fit that mold.

Breaking the COVID protocol, injuring yourself twice, those things don’t exactly fit being a good teammate, and in his first outing he was visibly upset when Amed Rosario lost a pop fly in the twilight, a ball that could have given Plesac a scoreless first inning.

He gave up a hit to allow a run right after, and then came out in the second and basically gave up five straight bullets off of Oakland bats. Did his teammates show displeasure when he did that?

To us, he’s also become a bit of a nibbler, falling behind in counts and then having to make too good of a pitch.

It’s not the one bad start in 2023, it’s the last 50 starts that put Plesac on watch. With Triston McKenzie’s injury, the Guardians don’t really have an option to replace him in the rotation, but if he has more outings like Monday or when McKenzie is ready to go, he could wind up being the odd man out.

We are sure the organization doesn’t want to rush Gavin Williams or Tanner Bibee either.

Hopefully, Plesac can start his turn around Sunday in his next start. If he is to have a future in Cleveland, he needs to pitch better and be mentally tougher.

Guardians Should Add Another Division Title

It’s finally here. If you are a baseball fan, it’s what you looked forward to since the last out of the World Series. You knew it was getting closer when spring training started, but now it’s here.

Opening Day!

When we were younger, the start of a new season held hope for a Cleveland Indians’ fan in the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s. We thought maybe this year we would catch lightning in a bottle and could get to the World Series.

Of course, that was a young, foolish thought. It wasn’t until 1995 that it happened, and really, despite our criticism at times of the team, they’ve been good more often than not since then.

We think the Guardians will win the AL Central this season, and perhaps last season’s surprising campaign can be the jumping off point for another run of post-season appearances. It’s a very young roster with a very strong farm system.

Besides the catching spot, currently being held by veterans until prospect Bo Naylor is ready, which should happen sometime this summer, the oldest Guardians are perennial MVP Jose Ramirez and newcomer Josh Bell.

Ramirez is simply one of the best players in baseball, and probably the most underrated. Recently, ESPN (yeah, we know) ranked him as the 13th best player in the game, which is ridiculous. There simply aren’t 12 baseball players right now better than Jose Ramirez.

In the last six seasons, he has finished in the top four in the MVP balloting four times and finished sixth in another year. 13th? It shows how little the people who cover baseball at the four letter network know about the game.

If Bell has an average season for him, say 25 HR and 90 RBI, it will lend some thump to a lineup that ranked 14th in the AL in homers last season. Although the Cleveland lineup did a great job producing runs considering the lack of power (6th in the AL in runs), having the ability to put a tally on the board with one swing of the bat helps.

The players to watch are Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan. Can they improve on last year’s numbers? They are 24 and 26 respectively, so they should still be on the upward path of their careers. If they do, they will put up special numbers.

A baseball mantra is a team can’t have enough pitching, and this has been the pillar of the Cleveland organization over the past 10 years. They’ve had three Cy Young Award winners, and one of them, Shane Bieber remains the staff ace.

Triston McKenzie’s injury puts a bit of a damper on the rotation, but if Aaron Civale can stay healthy, that’s a plus. The biggest question mark has to be Zach Plesac, who hasn’t been effective over the last two seasons.

By the middle of the year, hurlers like Gavin Williams (5-4, 1.96 ERA at AA and A) and Tanner Bibee (8-2, 2.17 ERA at AA and A) could be ready to take his spot.

We are particularly bullish on Williams, who has the profile of a workhorse ace at 6’6″ and 255 pounds. He fanned 149 batters in 115 innings last season. Bibee is no slouch in that regard, whiffing 167 hitters in 133 frames.

The bullpen is the most volatile part of any baseball team, but when the back of the ‘pen is anchored by Emmanuel Clase, that’s a reason to feel somewhat comfortable. Over the past two years, Clase has a 1.33 ERA and has allowed only five home runs in 148 appearances. He’s also only walked 26.

We never take for granted a winning baseball team in Cleveland. After 30 years of hoping to find a winning season, this is rather fun.

Why Guards Aren’t Dealing Prospects

The Cleveland Guardians won the American League Central Division title last season, winning 92 games. The Cleveland Guardians also have one of the top five farm systems in baseball. Outside of trading Nolan Jones, who probably was no longer one of the system’s top ten prospects, and moving Owen Miller, who spent the entire season on the big-league roster, the Guards haven’t addressed the seeming glut of prospects about to hit Cleveland. It seems that many teams when in the situation the Guardians are in, like to package a number of prospects to get proven big-league talent. Think about what San Diego has done over the past few years. Unfortunately for the Padres, their excessive prospects are having success, but here in Cleveland. Let’s examine the top five prospects in the Guards’ system: pitchers Daniel Espino and Gavin Williams, catcher Bo Naylor, OF George Valera, and SS Brayan Rocchio. Espino, a right-hander and Cleveland’s first round pick in 2019, was injured much of last season throwing only 19 innings, albeit dominating one, fanning 35 hitters. Williams, another righty and also a first rounder in 2021, appears to be the definition of a horse at 6’6″ and 240 pounds. He pitched 115 innings at Lake County and Akron, with a 1.96 ERA and 149 punchouts. Now, the big-league situation comes into play. Shane Bieber, the ace of the staff, is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2024 season. After winning the division, the Guardians aren’t trading him this off-season, but with the dollars spent this winter, it isn’t a reach to see Bieber being moved next winter. It would seem Espino and Williams would be ready then. If Bieber agreed to an extension with the Guardians, maybe the front office would entertain a deal for their top two prospects. We wouldn’t unless the return was substantial. We would be surprised if Naylor opened the season on the big club, but we won’t be shocked if he’s getting regular playing time by the beginning of June. He is the catcher of the future. We feel the same about Rocchio being the shortstop of the future, the heir apparent to Amed Rosario. We believe the organization likes him better than Gabriel Arias or Tyler Freeman, who will likely battle in spring to see who is the reserve infielder. We have been hearing about Valera for years. A left-handed hitter, he has plus power, and has always shown patience at the plate. However, in 2021 between Lake County and Akron, he fanned 88 times with 66 walks. In ’22, with more at bats between Akron and Columbus, he whiffed 145 times with 74 walks. Not bad, but the ratio is much worse. That would make him the most likely candidate to be moved in a trade for big-league talent. The front office is gambling he will make adjustments and take some of the swing-and-miss out of his game, because if the ratio gets worse, so will his ranking as a prospect. Prospects #6 through #10 are: Pitchers Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee, SS Angel Martinez, OF Chase DeLauter, and OF Will Brennan. It’s more likely the Guards would trade someone from this list, but DeLauter hasn’t even played a professional game yet, and Brennan would seem to be insurance for the big club in the outfield. We are firmly NOT in the mindset that all prospects will turn out to be the next Mike Trout. We are just trying to explain what we think is the front office’s reasoning for not packaging a couple of these guys. How many players on the division winners have proven track records? It’s fewer than you think. Perhaps that’s why no deals as of yet.