The Continued Struggles Of The Guardians’ Starters

Last night was exactly what the doctor ordered for the Cleveland Guardians in terms of starting pitching. Tanner Bibee gave Steven Vogt six scoreless innings, great effectiveness and some decent length.

We know the rotation has been the weakness of the 2024 Guardians thus far. It is the only position on the squad where Cleveland ranks last in the American League in WAR (wins above replacement).

The last pitcher who went six frames in a game was Logan Allen on June 7th vs. Miami. Previous to Allen, it was Bibee, who went 6.1 innings on May 31st.

So, in the month of June, the Guardians have had exactly two outings where the starting pitcher completed six innings. Now, we understand the game has changed recently, but having your bullpen have to cover more than 12 outs on a nightly basis is not something usually equated with success throughout a six month season.

There were a few outings where Vogt yanked his starter in the sixth and perhaps, he didn’t have to. The starter could have got the last out of the inning.

We get it. When your bullpen has been as great as the Guardians’ have this season, it is tempting to get them in the game and have a guy like Sam Hentges, Tim Herrin, or Cade Smith overmatch the next hitter to end the inning.

We know the front office is aware of the problem, and we are also it is difficult to make a deal for a starter at this point. We also know there are a lot of teams looking for starting pitching, so it won’t be easy for Cleveland to pull off a deal.

Everyone is waiting for Gavin Williams to be back, but in his last outing in AAA, he threw 53 pitches, making over 30 in the second inning where he only recorded two outs before being removed.

So, it appears it will be a while before he can join the rotation.

Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco and Triston McKenzie have to be a concern. Carrasco missed a couple of starts with a spasm in his neck, and since his return, his longest outing was five innings last Saturday, and he only went five because the Guards were trailing 5-0 and Vogt didn’t want to overexpose his relief corps.

He’s made just two starts where he went at least six innings, one against the Angels and the other vs. the White Sox. He has a 5.80 ERA for the year, and last year, it was 6.80 for the Mets.

McKenzie has had issues with the two things pitchers cannot do and still be effective, and that is walk people and give up home runs. When we were young, we used to hear about guys who gave up the long ball, but since they didn’t walk people, most of the dingers were solo shots.

McKenzie leads the AL in walks and is second in the Junior Circuit in giving up homers with 15. Thankfully, he doesn’t give up a lot of hits besides the home runs.

Perhaps Pedro Avila should get a shot. He started in San Diego last year and has been okay so far for the Guardians (2.60 ERA, 31 K’s in 26.2 innings). Or why not see what Connor Gillispie can do?

He has a 4.55 ERA at AAA, allowing 62 hits in 63.1 innings with 64 strikeouts. His last few outings have been much better than that. Maybe he can get into or complete six innings of a Major League game?

McKenzie and Carrasco’s struggles put more pressure on Bibee, Allen, and Ben Lively to pitch deeper into games.

The Guardians have a great thing going, sitting at 45-26 on the season. That doesn’t mean they are complacent. However, the more that duo struggles, the more of a burden they put on the relievers.

Some Changes Looming For Guards After a .500 Trip?

The Cleveland Guardians are coming off a solid trip. It seems like their early season success have some fans panicking when they lose a series, but they came off the eight game sojourn to three cities at .500, and that is just fine.

By the way, a quick look at the schedule shows Cleveland will play 40 of their last 60 games after the All-Star break at home. That’s a lot.

On a break-even trip, a couple of warts have shown up. The Guards are struggling a bit vs. left-handed pitching, partially due to David Fry returning to normal human being status (he’s “down” to a .356 batting average against them) and lately, Steven Vogt has taken to playing both Gabriel Arias and Austin Hedges against them, and that’s leaving the lineup two hitters short.

We may also be seeing the beginning of the end as a starting pitcher for veteran Carlos Carrasco. Since returning from his neck spasms, he has made three starts, totaling 13.2 innings, allowing 12 earned runs on 17 hits.

We understand there aren’t many alternatives for the organization until Gavin Williams is ready to go (he threw just 53 pitches in his last rehab start), but we don’t know how you can give Carrasco another start. Perhaps you swap roles with Pedro Avila, who did throw 43 pitches in an outing on June 8th.

Or try Xzavion Curry again, although he has an ERA over 7.00 at AAA. There is no question starting pitching is the Guardians’ biggest need, and it’s a need that will be very difficult to correct. But sending Carrasco out for another start seems to be a wish on the organization’s part.

We also wonder if Kyle Manzardo might get sent back to Columbus to get every day at bats. Daniel Schneemann has been a hitting machine since getting called up, collecting nine hits in 24 at bats, including four extra base hits, and has walked five times.

Manzardo hasn’t been bad but has gone 3 for 20 over the last two weeks, since Schneemann has usurped some of his at bats. This is not writing Manzardo off. Plenty of players get called up and sent down once or even twice before sticking at the big-league level.

However, clearly playing once or twice a week isn’t helping the rookie find a rhythm at the plate.

If Manzardo goes back to the minors, it would mean Johnathan Rodriguez would likely stay as a right-handed outfield bat. He could platoon with Will Brennan in RF or be the DH vs. lefties, where Gabriel Arias has been recently.

Here’s something to keep an eye on: Juan Brito has started to play 1B at Columbus, increasing his versatility. Brito is 22 for 64 vs. lefties (.344 average, 1018 OPS) with 3 HR and 10 walks.

Usually, a position charge means the front office is trying to see if a player can fit on the big-league roster. Overall, Brito, a switch-hitter (adding more versatility) is hitting .249 with an 801 OPS after a slow start.

He also fits in with his strikeout to walk ratio for the season, which is 49 Ks and 49 BBs.

The Guardians are sitting at 44-25, but the organization isn’t going to be complacent with this team. Just wondering if some roster tweaks are coming.

Remembering When Starting Pitching Brought Confidence To Guardians’ Fans

As recently as 2018, fans of the Cleveland baseball team were spoiled by their starting pitching. The rotation consisted of Corey Kluber (who won 20 games that year), Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer, and a rookie fifth starter named Shane Bieber.

At the time, we thought going into every game, the Indians had a legitimate chance to win because they had the edge between the two starting pitchers.

Even into the pandemic season of 2020, Terry Francona’s starters were at the top of the sport. Bieber emerged as a Cy Young winner that season, and he was backed up by Carrasco, Clevinger (before he was traded), Aaron Civale, and rookie Triston McKenzie.

Baseball people started to refer to the “Cleveland Pitching Factory”, with the organization seemingly able to crank out starter after starter. Heck, it happened last season when McKenzie went down in spring training, Zach Plesac proved ineffective, and Cal Quantrill was hurt, the Guardians simply went to the farm and called up Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams.

Apparently, this season the factory has been shut down for repairs or something, because the organization is scrambling to put an effective starting pitcher on the mound each and every night.

It was certainly curious when the organization released Quantrill after the season rather than pay him through arbitration, where he figured to make about $6 million, not a lot of money for a guy who can give you innings.

The right-hander has pitched to a 3.58 ERA in Colorado this season logging a staff high 73 innings. By the way, those innings would also lead the Guardians’ staff.

The only pitcher signed over the winter was Reds’ castoff Ben Lively, who has been a savior for this year’s staff.

Bieber was lost to elbow surgery after two starts, leaving a huge void in the rotation, which coming into the season consisted of him, the three rookies, and McKenzie, who missed most of last year with an elbow issue.

Of the trio of first year arms called up last year and thought to provide the backbone of the rotation going forward, only Bibee has been close to his ’23 form, with a 3.73 ERA in 70 innings with 76 strikeouts and 19 walks.

Williams has missed all year with an elbow issue, but hopefully can return soon. Allen has made his 13 starts but has a 5.57 ERA.

McKenzie has not pitched like the guy who put up a 2.96 ERA in 2022. He has allowed a league leading 14 dingers (tied with his teammate Logan Allen) and also leads the league in walks with 36 in 62.2 innings of work.

Right now, the rotation has more holes than an old guy’s socks. And there were no solutions at hand.

Xzavion Curry has made three spot starts, one very good, the other two being “meh”. The ERA of the pitching staff at Columbus is 5.46 and the best starter down there is journeyman Connor Gillispie, who has a 5.02 ERA, although he has 60 strikeouts in 57.1 innings. He’s 26 years old.

The bullpen has taken on a heavy burden for the big club to get off to this 42-22 start. How long can they sustain the success pitching all of these innings? Could they do it all year? Sure, but based on the past, eventually it is going to catch up with them unless the starters start carrying their weight.

As we said, Lively has been a savior and Bibee has been solid. Carlos Carrasco has been a nice story in his return to the franchise, but he can’t be trusted to get through a lineup a third time.

McKenzie needs to throw strikes and he and Allen need to keep the ball in the yard.

More likely is the front office is going to have to overpay to bring in an arm. With the Cleveland bullpen, they may be able to get a guy who can soak up innings and keep the team in the game.

The rest of the team is doing too well for the rotation to be a burden.

Do Guardians Really Need A Shortstop? Not So Fast

As the calendar turns to June, the Major League Baseball trading deadline is now less than two months away. And with the Cleveland Guardians off to a tremendous start, speculation has started as to what the front office will be targeting at the July 30th deadline.

It doesn’t take in depth analysis to realize the Guardians need starting rotation help, although you could say that with most contending teams.

Obviously, losing Shane Bieber after two starts was a huge blow, and not having Gavin Williams to date, has really wiped out 40% of the rotation. Williams is making progress, making a rehab start last week, and perhaps he can be back before July 1st.

Still, although Tanner Bibee has been very good (4-1, 3.74 ERA) he is averaging less than 6 innings per start. The same is true of the other rotation pieces, Triston McKenzie and Ben Lively.

This is put a heavy toll on the bullpen, which has been the strength of the team. The list of the top ten in the American League in appearances features four pitchers wearing Cleveland uniforms: Emmanuel Clase is tied for the league lead with 30. Hunter Gaddis and Nick Sandlin are tied for fourth at 29, and Scott Barlow is tied for 7th at 28.

Add in Tim Herrin with 27 games and rookie Cade Smith with 25. So far, no one has lost effectiveness, but you would hate to get into August and have the relief corps suffer a downturn.

The other position that comes up is shortstop. However, if you look at WAR, the Guardians’ weakest positions have been RF and catcher. The rightfield issue may sort itself out as we wouldn’t be surprised if David Fry starts getting more playing time there now that Stephan Kwan has returned.

We have written about Fry before, and when you are hitting .355 with an OPS of 1128, your manager is going to figure out how to get you in the lineup.

Brayan Rocchio doesn’t have a lot of pop, and we are sure people look at his .203 batting average and say he has to be replaced. But looking inside the numbers, you see that Rocchio is tied for second on the team in walks with 23, behind only Fry with 24.

So is on base percentage is .308, which is the American League average. And Rocchio has been more than adequate defensively, which is important because first and foremost, shortstop is a defensive position.

Let’s not overlook the Guardians’ excellent start and the way the hitting has produced runs certainly buys Rocchio more time.

And we have always said this. If Cleveland was having problems producing offense, then Rocchio would certainly be under more scrutiny. But they are winning and scoring.

We have also always felt that good lineups need seven solid bats in the batting order to be productive. The league average OPS is 699 right now, and the Guards have five hitters over that figure, but over the last month, Tyler Freeman is close at 694.

We are willing to give Rocchio more time, especially because he has an acceptable strikeout/walk ratio, meaning he is not getting dominated by opposing pitchers.

If you are asking, we would add pitching first and foremost, because we agree with former skipper Terry Francona, when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.

We would rank the trade targets this way: 1). Starter 2). Reliever 3). Starter…….4). shortstop.

Six weeks from now, we may sing a different tune.

Some Struggles Among The Guardians’ Fast Start

There is no question the Cleveland Guardians have been one of the more surprising teams in Major League Baseball, jumping out to a 23-13 record and first place in the so far surprisingly strong AL Central.

The much-maligned division currently has four teams over the .500 mark.

That said, there have been some disappointing starts for a few of the Guardians’ players thus far. It’s still early and we don’t mean to dwell on the negative when the team is playing so well, but here are players we would like to see get going.

Bo Naylor had a strong second half last year, hitting .252 with 10 home runs and an 893 OPS, but has struggled at the plate and defensively so far in 2024. The left-handed hitter has just a 558 OPS and leads the team in strikeouts with 38 in 103 plate appearances.

His whiff rate is at 37% right now, compared to 23% last season and while he is among the team leaders in taking walks, his walk rate has dropped from last season.

Defensively, he already has four passed balls (he had 5 last season) and there have been several others where the pitcher was charged with a wild pitch, and the Guardians are tied for the AL high in that category, and we felt Naylor could have done a better job blocking it.

Remember, the Guardians as an organization value defense first behind the plate.

We aren’t saying Naylor should be in danger of losing his job, but we better contact and better defense should be the goal going forward.

Ramon Laureano was resigned in the off-season because he could can play CF and RF and because of his success against southpaws, a career 777 OPS against lefties. However, let’s not forget he was designated for assignment by the lowly A’s, where he hit .213 with a 645 OPS.

To date, he is 5 for 30 vs. left-handed pitching with 13 strikeouts and no walks in 32 plate appearances. Overall, he is hitting .150 with 27 whiffs, 7 walks, and a single home run. Could Johnathan Rodriguez, hitting .280 with an 867 OPS, be poised to take his at bats?

We are sure the organization doesn’t want to bring up Rodriguez and platoon him, and that might be the thing saving Laureano right now.

We knew one of the three rookie starting pitchers the Guardians had last season would have struggles, and Logan Allen is the one having the most troubles. Gavin Williams is still sidelined and while Tanner Bibee hasn’t been dominant, he does have a 4.46 ERA.

Allen had a solid second start of the season, going 6.2 shutout innings against Seattle, but other than that start, he’s pitched to a 7.71 ERA in 32.2 frames. He has a solid strikeout to walk ratio (33K:14 BB) but has allowing 47 hits, including nine home runs.

And to be fair, Allen didn’t pitch poorly in Houston, where bad defense did him in.

The problem is the lack of alternatives right now until Williams returns. Xzavion Curry gave Cleveland a solid start in his lone appearance for the big club, but currently has a 6.86 ERA at Columbus.

And add in the uncertainty (at least in our mind) every time Carlos Carrasco starts, and it’s clear the Guardians need Allen to get back to the guy who had a 3.81 ERA and gave up a hit an inning a year ago.

The Guardians are rapidly approaching the quarter pole of the season, but they need to see progress from this trio going forward.

An Early Tough Gut Punch For Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians are off to a very good start this season, but it didn’t make them exempt from getting bad news. Saturday, it was announced that Shane Bieber would have to undergo elbow surgery and miss the rest of the season.

It’s a blow for sure as the right-hander looked like he did in his Cy Young Award season in his first two starts, throwing 12 shutout innings with 20 strikeouts and just one walk.

Immediately, some fans raised the white flag on the season, but the players and Steven Vogt don’t and won’t feel that way. Since Bieber is a starting pitcher, they really only have to replace him once every fifth day.

Not to say we told you so, but the availability of Bieber as well as Triston McKenzie were two reasons we didn’t understand the organization’s decision not to add any pitching over the winter. McKenzie missed most of the 2023 season with an elbow issue, and hopefully he will make 30 starts, but it will be a pleasant surprise.

So, where does the organization go from here. First, many people have said the Guardians need to make a trade, but it’s so early in the season, it would seem to be difficult to find a trade partner.

Gavin Williams is down in Arizona right now building up his arm due to a tweak in his elbow (there’s that joint again), and if all goes well, he could be back by the end of April, and could take Bieber’s spot in the rotation.

Williams, if he can remain healthy, has the look of a stud starting pitcher and did well last season with a 3-5 record and 3.29 ERA and almost a strikeout per inning.

Until Williams is back, it could be Xzavion Curry or Ben Lively, the one free agent pitcher the Guardians did sign in the off-season, getting the ball.

Both pitchers are on rehab assignments after catching the flu/virus bug that traveled around the clubhouse in Arizona but were being stretched out as starters before they became ill.

Curry made nine starts a year ago and went 2.2 innings in his first outing at Columbus, while Lively, a 32-year-old veteran, made 12 starts last season for Cincinnati after spending the 2020-22 seasons in Korea as a starter.

Lively was 4-7 with a 5.38 ERA with the Reds in ’23, striking out 79 and walking 25 in 88.2 innings. He did allow 20 dingers with the Reds, and before you blame the bandbox stadium in the Queen City, the homers were divided equally home and road.

He went three in his first rehab outing.

With Sunday’s rainout and Thursday’s off day, the Guardians can get to next Tuesday’s game at Fenway Park before needing a fifth starter, so either Curry or Lively should be ready to give Steven Vogt at least five innings by then.

The way Bieber looked in his first two starts was so encouraging though. Through nine games, only three starters have completed six innings and Bieber’s starts were two of those.

Vogt is going to need Tanner Bibee and Carlos Carrasco to give him more innings in order to keep the bullpen, which has been excellent so far, fresh.

That duo hasn’t pitched poorly, but through their four combined starts, only Bibee has seen the sixth inning and that was just for one out.

The Guardians will continue to proceed with their “win today’s game” attitude, which is how it is supposed to be.

Losing Bieber for the rest of the year is a blow, but it happened early enough for the organization to adjust.

Moving On From Straw Is A New Direction From Guards?

Probably nothing signals a new era for Cleveland Guardians’ baseball than Myles Straw being put on waivers and outrighted to AAA.

Straw is kind of the poster child for the question of how important is being an elite defender to play on an everyday basis? Straw won the Gold Glove in 2022 and was certainly a tremendous glove in patrolling centerfield during his tenure in Cleveland, but frankly, he was one of the worst hitters in the sport.

For a team that finished 12th in the American League in runs scored a year ago, his bat was no longer a luxury they could afford.

In Ozzie Smith’s second season, he batted .211 with a 522 OPS. As good as Smith was with the glove, if he didn’t provide better offense, we would have been a bench player for a while, and then would have been released.

And he’s probably the greatest defensive shortstop ever.

Smith gradually got better with a bat in his hands. Perhaps Straw will at some point, but if he doesn’t, we would guess he won’t be a regular in the major leagues again.

Not to get bogged down with Straw, but the curious thing about him is he never changed his offensive approach in games. He never learned or improved his bunting skills. He also stopped running when he did reach base, which was even more curious.

As for the rest of the roster, it does look like Straw’s replacement in center might be converted shortstop Tyler Freeman. We have long wondered what Freeman would do if he was getting regular playing time, and we guess we will know find out.

The pedigree is there as far as his minor league numbers go. He slashed 393/387/780 in AAA and overall, 382/430/812. Now, it’s up to him to prove those numbers can translate to the big leagues.

We were also happy to learn Brayan Rocchio will be the primary shortstop over Gabriel Arias, because we think the former is the better offensive player.

We aren’t saying the organization should ignore the defense, especially when you’ve built everything around your pitching staff, but to us, if it comes down to playing a pretty good fielder who can hit vs. a great glove who cannot, we go with the first option every time.

Estevan Florial made the team despite a lackluster camp, and it will be interesting to see how Steven Vogt uses him. Our thought with him is if he doesn’t do anything with the bat, there is the logical spot for Kyle Manzardo to come in and replace him on the roster.

The pitching staff is very much in flux because of injuries and the virus which affected the team all spring. Gavin Williams and Sam Hentges will start on the injured list, and we already know Trevor Stephan is out for the season.

So, Carlos Carrasco will open as the fifth starter, and Tyler Beede, a non-roster invitee who pitched in Japan last season also will be on hand. Hunter Gaddis is now a reliever, and was very good in Arizona, fanning 17 in 11-2/3 innings.

Rookie Cade Smith could also make the big club after striking out 11 in eight frames in spring training, coming off whiffing 95 in 62-2/3 innings in the minors last season, albeit with a 4.45 ERA.

How will this group of Guardians perform once the games count for real in Oakland on Thursday night? We will talk about that in a couple of days.

Guardians’ Starting Depth? Not That Much.

The Cleveland Guardians pride themselves on being a pitching factory. Even the national media talks about it. When we read that, we always think what happened to the blueprints for the hitting factory.

A recent ranking of starting rotations in the sport had Cleveland ranked 24th though, far below where they normally sit. And frankly, that ranking makes sense to us.

Right now, the rotation consists of two pitchers who missed significant time with arm problems in Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, and three guys who have less than a season of experience.

Bieber has missed substantial parts in two of the last three seasons with injuries, completing only the 2022 season, when he went 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA and 198 strikeouts in 200 innings.

Last season, his velocity was down, but he still was reasonably effective in 128 innings, pitching to a 3.80 ERA (league average was 4.33) and allowing less hits than innings pitched.

McKenzie pitched in just four games, totaling only 16 innings with an elbow issue. That issue has led many pitchers to “Tommy John surgery”, and frankly, that’s still a concern for us heading into the season. And if something happens during spring training, we won’t see the 26-year-old until the 2025 season.

The three rookies were very impressive in 2023, but still, it was their first year and since there is no track record for any of this trio, we have no idea what to expect.

Tanner Bibee was the star, finishing second in the American League rookie of the year voting, pitching to a 2.98 ERA in 25 starts totaling 142 innings. He allowed just 122 hits while striking out 141 and walking 45.

Lefty Logan Allen made 24 starts and went 7-8 with a 3.81 ERA in 125.1 innings, giving up 127 hits, whiffing 119 and issuing 48 walks. And former first round pick Gavin Williams made 16 starts and had a 3.29 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 82 innings with 37 walks.

Impressive as they are, the 2024 season will tell if they can be like the three rookies in the 1984 Kansas City Royals’ rotation, Bret Saberhagen, Mark Gubicza, and Danny Jackson, who helped lead the Royals to their first world championship in 1985.

On the other hand, the last starting pitcher who was the rookie of the year was Detroit’s Michael Fullmer, whose ERA was more than a half run worse the following year, and his strikeout rate was down.

The history of the game shows a bunch of pitchers who were very good in their first season, and once the hitters got a book on them, didn’t have the same success going forward. We think both Bibee and Williams in particular have good enough stuff to overcome this, but until we see it, there has to be a bit of doubt.

There isn’t much depth behind this group. Cleveland signed 32-year-old Ben Lively from Cincinnati, who has a career 5.05 ERA, and still has holdovers Hunter Gaddis (49.1 career innings, 6.57 ERA) and Xzavion Curry (4.07 ERA in long relief, spot starting duty last season)

It was mentioned in a piece by Mike Axisa last week that perhaps Trevor Stephan might profile better as a starting pitcher, as he was in the minor leagues before 2019.

And of course, the next man who should be ready from the pitching factory is left-hander Will Dion, who had a 2.39 ERA at high Class A and AA last year, fanning 129 in 116.1 innings, allowing just 91 hits.

There is very little experience in the group we mentioned, especially if a rumored deal involving Bieber is completed. We are sure a pitching prospect will come back, but of course, that just adds another unproven arm.

That’s a lot of questions for a team that likes to consider itself a contender for a post-season spot. Does the organization still think that way?

Moving Quantrill Is Odd, Getting Barlow Is Good

Former Guardians’ manager Terry Francona, and yes, it’s weird to write that, used to say that when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more. Apparently, Cleveland is no subscribing to that adage with one of their first off-season moves.

In order to add rookies Daniel Espino and Cade Smith to the 40-man roster, the Guardians designated Cal Quantrill for assignment.

Quantrill will likely never be in the conversation for a Cy Young Award, but he is a reliable starting pitcher.

The Guards received minor league catcher Kody Huff from Colorado, he played in A ball last season. Team president Chris Antonetti said the Guardians didn’t think Quantrill was worth the likely $6 million he would receive in arbitration, and in a vacuum, he’s probably right.

However, sometimes there is hidden value. With Shane Bieber (who may be traded) and Triston McKenzie coming off injuries, if they aren’t ready, the starting rotation right now looks like Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, and a mixture of Hunter Gaddis, rookie Joey Cantillo, Xzavion Curry, and perhaps Cody Morris.

That would be three second-year starters, who have no proven track record in the bigs, and a bunch of arms without a track record in the majors.

Wouldn’t Quantrill, a proven big-league starter have some value to Cleveland? He has made 94 big league starts, pitching to a 4.06 ERA in those outings.

If you were a contending club, or one who says they are, you would want pitchers who you know can give you a decent outing. And as much as we like Bibee, Williams, and Allen, we don’t know if they will pitch as well in 2024.

So, if we were Antonetti and Mike Chernoff, we’d be looking for an established starting pitcher. Our philosophy as a GM would be to guard against things as best you can if things go wrong. With the injuries to Bieber and McKenzie, and depending on second-year players, we think a lot could go wrong.

Cleveland did make another trade on Friday, getting reliever Scott Barlow from San Diego for Enyel De Los Santos.

De Los Santos had two solid years here, pitching in 120 games with a 3.18 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 119 innings, but seemed more comfortable in a sixth or seventh inning role. His ERA is almost a run higher in the 8th than in the 7th in his career.

Barlow has closing experience, saving 53 games with the Royals from 2021 to 2023, including 13 last year before being dealt to the Padres. He’s also a strikeout pitcher, fanning 393 hitters in 332 innings for his career.

He should give Emmanuel Clase some relief at times, because he seemed to be the only reliable alternative the team had in ’23.

And he would also seem to move Trevor Stephan, who struggled mightily in the second half last year into more of a 7th inning role.

The Guardians also signed Ramon Laureano to a one-year deal, after he hit .243/.342/.382/724 after being released by Oakland. He also has a career 791 OPS vs. lefties since coming to the major leagues.

They paid Laureano a reported $5.1 million next year, and that makes us wonder about Myles Straw’s future. Laureano can play CF and RF, and is a good defensive outfielder. It’s hard to see Cleveland paying Straw $4.9 million (and it escalates in ’25 and ’26) and Laureano.

Just something to keep an eye on and the hot stove season moves on.

Can Guards Deal From Strength And What Would That Mean.

People say the best baseball trades come when a team is dealing from a strength. That almost certainly means if the Cleveland Guardians make a deal this winter, it will involve someone from their pitching staff, right?

We would say the offensively challenged Guards can’t move anyone who shows any talent when swinging the bat. However, Cleveland still has a glut of middle infielders, on both the big-league level and the high levels of the minor leagues.

How they rate (and how other teams rank for that matter) the talent at these positions will show everyone how they feel about these players. Unfortunately, based on how they handled the players this past season, we don’t have a lot of confidence they will do the right thing.

And by the way, that doesn’t mean we think the front office should be revamped. It does mean we hope whoever the new manager will be can change the minds of Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff.

Maybe, hopefully, the decision makers move off of the great defense above all else when it comes to the middle of the diamond and they settle for solid glovework with an ability to swing the bat a bit.

You would think that any move made to strengthen the lineup would involve a trade for a starting pitcher, but which player to move?

Many people would say to move Shane Bieber, the most accomplished of the starting rotation, but he is also a free agent after the 2024 season. How much could he bring in return? We believe it wouldn’t be as much as you might think.

Besides the contract situation, Bieber’s price could be muted by injury issues in two of the last three seasons. Although he pitched 200 innings in 2022, he threw just 97 frames in ’21 and 128 innings last season.

It’s hard to imagine he would get the kind of haul in terms of bats that the Guardians would be looking for.

We also would be very reticent to move either Tanner Bibee and/or Gavin Williams. We believe both hurlers have ace potential. Bibee made 25 starts last year, compiling a 2.98 ERA in 142 innings pitched, and maybe pitched his best in the biggest games when the team was still in the race.

Williams looks the part at 6’6″, 250 pounds and fanned 81 hitters in 82 big league innings. The walks may have been more than we would prefer, and he had periods where he may have given major league hitters more credit than they deserve.

So, the most enticing piece to move might be lefty Logan Allen (7-8, 3.81 ERA in 125.1 IP). We like Allen, but as they say, you have to give up something to get something. And if they move the southpaw, they would still have Bibee and Williams, and the durable Cal Quantrill.

We still don’t know about Triston McKenzie’s reliability because of his elbow injury. He did make two starts at the end of the year, totally six innings. He did walk nine hitters in those two starts. Hopefully, he can be a fixture in next year’s rotation, but we can’t feel confident in him being available for all of 2024 right now.

Trading Allen would mean someone would have to emerge from the minors, perhaps Joey Cantillo or Hunter Gaddis to fill out the rotation.

And even if they got a bat in return for a pitcher and Kyle Manzardo hits like projected, the Guardians probably still need another bat to have a very good offense.