Guardians’ Offense Needs To Rebound As Calendar Turns

Man, has this year and this baseball season flown by. The season enters it’s final month (yes, I know there are four regular season games in October) on Thursday, and the Cleveland Guardians are still in the thick of a post-season race.

They lead the Central Division by a game and a half, and before people make snarky comments about the relative strength of that division, be advised the Guards are just 2-1/2 games behind Tampa Bay for the third best record in the AL, behind just the beasts of the league, Houston and New York.

Terry Francona’s squad has 36 games remaining, 24 of them being played at Progressive Field, where the Guardians have gone 35-24, despite scoring less runs per game than they do on the road. Cleveland hitters have a 685 OPS at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, while they have a 702 OPS on the road.

Their pitchers are also better at home (3.60 ERA vs. 3.74 on the road).

So the hitting has step it up, particularly this week with two fellow post-season contenders, Baltimore and Seattle come to town.

For the season, Cleveland averages 4.2 runs per game, but over the last 12 games, that figure has dropped to 3.5, and over the last 25 contests, they are scoring just 3.76 per game.

Oddly, the offense for the catchers, which had been abysmal, has come alive in this span. Austin Hedges has hit .214 over the last month (not good unless you consider he’s batting .183 for the year) and Luke Maile has hit .361 with a 994 OPS in that span.

Josh Naylor has been in a slump, batting just .203 in the last 28 days (518 OPS) with just a single home run, and Amed Rosario has cooled off too, with a .257 batting average, although he’s hit four dingers this month.

We really liked Owen Miller’s hitting numbers in the minor leagues, but he appears to have lost his confidence at the plate and it’s tough to justify putting his name in the lineup, particularly when he plays at first, and he makes mistakes due to inexperience at the position.

Gabriel Arias has been getting time at first in Columbus, and although he’s batting just .231 at AAA, he does have 12 homers. The other downside is a 63:15 strikeout to walk ratio. It might be grasping at straws, but swapping them out might just help.

We think Myles Straw is just suffering through a deplorable offensive season, but he is an elite defender in centerfield. And we have no idea why he hasn’t tried bunting with his speed.

Will Benson has struggled since his recall (4 for 30), so it might be time to see Will Brennan, who has had a tremendous minor league season, batting .308 at AAA with a .369 on base percentage and 817 OPS. Between Columbus and Akron, he is hitting .309 with 10 HR and 95 RBI.

His strikeout to walk ratio? 59:47, meaning he fits right in with the contact approach the Guardians have.

Why not give Brennan some time in center, and if you have the lead, bring Straw in for defense?

As we head down the stretch, the Guardians’ offense has to get back on track. They can’t make a trade, so it has to happen from within. Maybe these moves can help. It’s been tougher to score at home this year, and they have a ton of games there the rest of the season.

Dreaming Of Soto In Cleveland (It Won’t Happen, But We Can Dream)

By now, everyone is aware that Washington Nationals’ slugger Juan Soto will likely be traded before the August 2nd trade deadline. His agent, who quite enjoys seeing his name in lights, turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Nats.

Washington will be looking for a boatload of prospects in exchange for the 23-year-old (he won’t turn 24 until after this season) slugger, and so the Cleveland Guardians, who may have the deepest farm system in the game were linked to Soto in some articles.

Now, let’s start by saying we understand the likelihood of Cleveland dealing for Soto is extremely slim. That’s not how this organization has done business over the years. Heck, Jose Ramirez left a lot of cash on the table to remain in town for hopefully, the rest of his career.

However, should the Guardians be interested, especially with the supposed influx of cash coming into the team from new minority owner David Blitzer?

If ever any team would make a gigantic financial commitment to a young player, it would seem to be Juan Soto, who again will start next season at age 24.

Soto led the National League last season in on base percentage at .465, and has already belted 118 home runs in his five years in the big leagues.

And he’s 23-years-old. The prime seasons for a typical major league baseball player are age 27 to 29, meaning Soto should still be getting better over the next few seasons. He was a seven win player last season.

If there is anyone a team like the Guardians would be willing to deal top prospects from a loaded farm system, it would be someone like Soto, and it’s not like Cleveland would have to deal every one of their current top ten either.

We talk ourselves into thinking that every minor player who puts up big numbers is going to wind up playing their way into Cooperstown. That’s simply not the case.

Here were Cleveland’s top prospects five years ago (2017):

Francisco Mejia
Bradley Zimmer
Triston McKenzie
Brady Aiken
Bobby Bradley
Yu Chang
Will Benson
Nolan Jones
Erik Gonzalez
Greg Allen

Granted, in 2017, the Cleveland farm system was not nearly as good and deep as it is now. Certainly, McKenzie has paid off, and hopefully Jones will too. And Mejia was used to get Brad Hand.

You have to figure Washington would want George Valera in a deal for Soto, so if you packaged him with say, Gabriel Arias and Logan Allen in the trade, you still have a very good prospect pool to work with.

Everybody loves Valera, and with good reason. At 21, he’s hitting .272 with 13 homers (857 OPS) at AA Akron, in a pitchers’ league. But will he ever be as good as Soto?

The equalizer is you would get six years of service from Valera, while Soto has only 2-1/2 years before he is eligible for free agency and with his agent being who he is, he’s going to take that route.

We have two points here. First, not all prospects, no matter how highly we think of them turn out to be superstars.

Second, if you can move prospects, even highly regarded ones, for a young, proven superstar, it should be considered. Let’s say Soto winds up being as good as Mike Trout. What would you give up for the last five or six years Trout put together. (Don’t consider the Angels’ record, that’s not Trout’s fault).

Guards Weathered The Storm, Now Back To The Division

After concluding a series at home against the Oakland A’s on June 12th, the Cleveland Guardians started what appeared to be a brutal stretch of games, starting with a nine game trip.

Through the end of June and going into the beginning of July, Terry Francona’s squad was going to play Minnesota eight times, and also have three game series against the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees.

If this group of Guardians wasn’t up to being a contender, surely, we would see it during over that three weeks of contests.

Coming into the last of those games today, Cleveland has acquitted themselves very well, going 7-9 thus far.

They took two of three from the Los Angeles, and five of eight against the Twins. They were swept at home by Boston, but two of those games very good games, and the offense went ice cold for a week during this period, which didn’t help.

Following today’s game against the Yankees, the Guards go back into the division pretty much through the end of the month, with only series against Boston and Tampa at the end of July interrupting the Central Division battles.

Cleveland is currently 17-11 vs. the AL Central as of today. However, they have to maintain that kind of play going forward.

Through July 25th, when they arrive at Fenway Park, the Guards have a seven-game trip to Detroit and Kansas City, followed by a homestand that will take them into the All-Star break. They will play a pair of four game sets against the White Sox and Tigers, and then have another quartet of contests (including a doubleheader of course) in the Windy City.

If they continue to play well in the division, that will seem to ensure Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff will be buyers at the trade deadline. The division would certainly still be in play, with the Guardians, Twins, and White Sox vying for what might be one spot, as the division winner.

In reality, it probably doesn’t make a difference either way. The organization has a glut of young players currently on the 40-man roster, and really doesn’t have room for all of them.

Look at the infield for example. Andres Gimenez might wind up making the Midsummer Classic roster this year, so he should be in the team’s plans going forward. So, what does that mean for Tyler Freeman, Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio, and even Owen Miller.

We have been on record as saying we believe Arias is the one to be moved and being called up this past weekend doesn’t do anything to make us feel differently.

We feel that way because Arias’ strikeout to walk ratio in the minors doesn’t seem to fit in with the current hitting philosophy of the organization. Plus, his recall is curious. He’s been injured for much of the season and was hitting under .200 for the year at AAA.

And the back end of the Cleveland bullpen, save for Emmanuel Clase, needs an upgrade. We’ve seen in the series against Boston and New York, there have been games where the starters have kept it close, but the bullpen allowed the game to get out of hand.

We understand the Guardians’ front office want players who will under control for a few years, so they won’t be looking for rentals. But if they can help this year’s team by giving up organizational depth, they almost have to do it.

They have a lot of baseball to play, but they’ve weathered a difficult part of the slate. With divisional games and some rest due to the All-Star break coming up, it’s not a stretch to think Cleveland will be in the thick of a post-season race.

Guards’ Roster Problems Aren’t Simple

It was a lost weekend for the Guardians, but they did have a chance to win two of the games against Boston, and let’s face it, the Red Sox are red hot right now.

There seems to be an ongoing discussion among Guards’ fans about the bottom of the team’s 26 man roster, but in looking closely at the situation, it’s not as easy as it seems to be.

From the position player standpoint, the last man on the bench (that’s not being pejorative, by the way) would seem to be Ernie Clement, who can probably play all four infield spots and has been used in left field by Terry Francona as well.

The problem would seem to be that Clement is being used as a platoon player, in the lineup whenever a southpaw is on the hill for the opposition. And it’s a problem because Clement doesn’t profile as this type of player.

In 98 career at bats vs. lefties, Clement has a .204 batting average and a 563 OPS. So, putting him in there instead of Andres Gimenez or Steven Kwan doesn’t really help you offensively.

However, even though the Guardians have a deep farm system, they really don’t have an alternative to Clement. Why? Because of his limited role as a utility man.

We are sure the front office want Tyler Freeman, Nolan Jones, and Gabriel Arias to play everyday at Columbus rather than getting sparing at bats at the big league level. And that makes total sense to us.

The only real solution we can think of is using Owen Miller more at 3B to give Jose Ramirez a day that he doesn’t have to play in the field. Francona could use Franmil Reyes in the outfield say, two days a week, therefore creating a chance to use either Ramirez or Josh Naylor at DH.

When Clement plays, he simply has to swing the bat better. He’s always been a patient hitter in the minors, with a 84/106 walk to strikeout ratio. In the bigs, he’s fanned 37 times against 14 walks. That would seem what he needs to do now in the majors.

The same roster problem exists with the last spot out of the bullpen. Since Nick Sandlin was sent down to find the strike zone (he hasn’t so far), the Guardians have used Anthony Castro, Yohan Ramirez, and Tanner Tully to try and protect the rest of the relief corps.

Tully was designated for assignment yesterday in favor of Ian Gibaut, who likely will get the same treatment today prior to the doubleheader.

The only other options currently on the 40 man roster are Kirk McCarty and Tobias Myers. McCarty didn’t fool anyone when he made a couple of brief appearance with Cleveland, and Myers isn’t pitching well at AAA.

The difference between this job opening and the utility spot is if a pitcher comes up and pitches well, he very well could stay on the roster for a while.

The point is sometimes it’s not as easy as just sending someone down, you also have to have someone ready to take that player’s role. And at times, especially for a bench player, you don’t want to use a prospect that needs to play.

Doing Something New Wouldn’t Be Bad For Guardians

It is pretty clear by now that the Cleveland Guardians aren’t making any major moves to improve the offense or the bullpen heading into the 2022 campaign.

There appeared to be some free agents to be had on affordable one year contracts, players like Tommy Pham (who signed with Cincinnati), Andrew McCutchen (Milwaukee), or even Anthony Rizzo (Yankees). The Guardians passed on all of them.

Since they made that decision, hopefully they understand that last season’s offense was not up to the levels a good major league should have, and they are willing to do something different.

For example, we hope beyond hope that Bradley Zimmer and/or Oscar Mercado are not going to be getting regular playing time. We really wonder if they should be on a major league roster at all.

Let’s hope Terry Francona and the decision makers are willing to try something different.

One huge question is who will flank Myles Straw in the outfield.

There has been talk about using Amed Rosario in left field as well as shortstop, but we hope this is just spring training discussions. Rosario is an average shortstop at best with the glove and we doubt moving him back and forth between two positions will make him better.

We aren’t enamored of Rosario’s hitting (no walks, little power) but if the front office wants him in the lineup every day, just put him in left field and be done with it.

Shortstop is the most important defensive position on the diamond, and we feel it would be better if the same person, hopefully a good defender played it day in and day out. Perhaps someone like Andres Gimenez or maybe even rookie Gabriel Arias.

We would like to see Steven Kwan get a chance right from game one in Kansas City on April 7th. A left-handed hitter, the 24-year-old has demonstrated an ability to get on base, a .380 on base percentage throughout his minor league career. And that’s the biggest need this team has offensively.

Why not find out about Oscar Gonzalez too? Also 24 years old, the right-handed hitter belted 31 home runs between Akron and Columbus last season. He doesn’t walk, and never really has in his minor league career, but he’s also batted .281 in the minors. He doesn’t appear to be an all or nothing swing for the fences guy.

And giving that duo time in the outfield would free Josh Naylor to move to first base, his natural position.

With the news that James Karinchak will miss the opener, the bullpen has to be considered a problem. Who will pitch the eighth inning in front of Emmanuel Clase?

We hope Francona doesn’t lean on his pitcher of comfort, newly signed Bryan Shaw. We don’t have a problem signing the veteran, but having him pitch the 8th, that seems a little ambitious.

Right now, we would guess it would be Trevor Stephan, who spent the entire season with Cleveland last year as a Rule 5 selection. Nick Sandlin would be in the mix, but he has not appeared in a game in Arizona just yet.

Flame throwing southpaw Anthony Gose likely has the team made, but there will be plenty of bullpen spots open, particularly with the extra roster spots granted to each team because of the shortened spring training.

There will be a lot of opportunity for young guys, unless the front office signs an available veteran.

There isn’t a benefit to trotting out the same players who couldn’t get it done last season with the hope they will improve greatly. Those guys have long enough track records to show improvement isn’t likely.

Embrace playing the young guys. Find out about them. And maybe, you’ll find some solid young players.

All Kidding Aside, Having Many Shortstops Is A Good Thing

We joke a lot about the number of shortstops the Cleveland Indians have on their top prospect list.

According to Baseball America’s ranking of the farm system, the Tribe has three shortstops and a second baseman among their top ten–Tyler Freeman is third, Gabriel Arias is sixth, Brayan Rocchio is 7th and the second baseman, Aaron Brocho is #10.

And don’t forget, the two major league players the team received for Francisco Lindor, Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario also play short, and so can Owen Miller, who came over from San Diego with Arias. That’s seven pretty good prospects playing the same position.

Look, it makes sense. Generally, shortstops are the best athletes on the field, and if you can handle the position at a competent level, you probably can play any spot on the diamond, outside of pitcher and catcher.

So, stockpiling good players who can play the most important defensive position on the diamond is smart. They can be moved to other positions of need and it’s always good to be able to be in a position to deal from strength if another organization needs someone to play in the middle of the diamond.

It’s the offensive equivalent to having pitching depth.

The question is how soon will the front office use the excess talent at the position to improve other areas of the roster? We think the Tribe has to be very careful about moving more pitching after the recent trades involving Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Carlos Carrasco.

We wrote last week that outside of Shane Bieber, the 2021 starting rotation will be manned by hurlers who haven’t thrown 200 innings at the big league level. Adam Plutko has pitched the most frames outside of the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner.

There is depth in case an Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac takes a step backward in their development. Terry Francona and Carl Willis can plug in a Scott Moss or Logan Allen to make some starts if that occurs. But there isn’t a lot of experience for the rotation.

That leaves the glut of middle infield prospects as the lure to get some outfielders who can hit. That doesn’t mean we don’t believe Daniel Johnson deserves an opportunity or that we’ve given up on Oscar Mercado, but the Indians do need a couple of proven bats to go with Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes.

Minnesota non-tendered OF Eddie Rosario, who tormented Cleveland for years, and he’s a possibility. He batted .257 with 13 HR (792 OPS) in the shortened 2020 season, and .276 with 32 HR and 109 RBI (800 OPS) in 2019. He’s a free swinger, but would be someone who could hit in the middle of Francona’s batting order.

For now, the talent evaluators within the Indians’ front office need to decide who is the future at shortstop and who has enough hitting ability to be able to move to another spot. We really like the hitting potential of Freeman and Miller, both of whom are said to project more as second basemen.

Could either become a piece in the outfield, the organizations’ biggest area of need?

What happens if Gimenez shows he’s the guy to hold down the position for the next five years (we don’t go beyond that because, you know)? That would put the Indians in an enviable position with other teams.

The one thing that will be intriguing over the next few years, is how the players like Rocchio and Bracho develop. That’s why we want minor league baseball and their box scores in 2021.