Some Changes Looming For Guards After a .500 Trip?

The Cleveland Guardians are coming off a solid trip. It seems like their early season success have some fans panicking when they lose a series, but they came off the eight game sojourn to three cities at .500, and that is just fine.

By the way, a quick look at the schedule shows Cleveland will play 40 of their last 60 games after the All-Star break at home. That’s a lot.

On a break-even trip, a couple of warts have shown up. The Guards are struggling a bit vs. left-handed pitching, partially due to David Fry returning to normal human being status (he’s “down” to a .356 batting average against them) and lately, Steven Vogt has taken to playing both Gabriel Arias and Austin Hedges against them, and that’s leaving the lineup two hitters short.

We may also be seeing the beginning of the end as a starting pitcher for veteran Carlos Carrasco. Since returning from his neck spasms, he has made three starts, totaling 13.2 innings, allowing 12 earned runs on 17 hits.

We understand there aren’t many alternatives for the organization until Gavin Williams is ready to go (he threw just 53 pitches in his last rehab start), but we don’t know how you can give Carrasco another start. Perhaps you swap roles with Pedro Avila, who did throw 43 pitches in an outing on June 8th.

Or try Xzavion Curry again, although he has an ERA over 7.00 at AAA. There is no question starting pitching is the Guardians’ biggest need, and it’s a need that will be very difficult to correct. But sending Carrasco out for another start seems to be a wish on the organization’s part.

We also wonder if Kyle Manzardo might get sent back to Columbus to get every day at bats. Daniel Schneemann has been a hitting machine since getting called up, collecting nine hits in 24 at bats, including four extra base hits, and has walked five times.

Manzardo hasn’t been bad but has gone 3 for 20 over the last two weeks, since Schneemann has usurped some of his at bats. This is not writing Manzardo off. Plenty of players get called up and sent down once or even twice before sticking at the big-league level.

However, clearly playing once or twice a week isn’t helping the rookie find a rhythm at the plate.

If Manzardo goes back to the minors, it would mean Johnathan Rodriguez would likely stay as a right-handed outfield bat. He could platoon with Will Brennan in RF or be the DH vs. lefties, where Gabriel Arias has been recently.

Here’s something to keep an eye on: Juan Brito has started to play 1B at Columbus, increasing his versatility. Brito is 22 for 64 vs. lefties (.344 average, 1018 OPS) with 3 HR and 10 walks.

Usually, a position charge means the front office is trying to see if a player can fit on the big-league roster. Overall, Brito, a switch-hitter (adding more versatility) is hitting .249 with an 801 OPS after a slow start.

He also fits in with his strikeout to walk ratio for the season, which is 49 Ks and 49 BBs.

The Guardians are sitting at 44-25, but the organization isn’t going to be complacent with this team. Just wondering if some roster tweaks are coming.

Can’t Focus On One Thing In Evaluating Baseball Players

Baseball is changing, and we don’t mean the rule changes put forth by the commissioner a few years ago. For the record, we like the pitch clock and don’t have an issue with limiting the number of pick off throws by a pitcher.

As for the “ghost runner” in extra innings? Well, you can’t win them all, right Rob Manfred?

Over the past 40 years, there have been many new statistics, most of them add a lot to the game and give more information as to how valuable a player can be. Others, such as numbers reflecting expected numbers, tell both fans and front offices to be patient with players, particularly young ones.

A statistic that has come under fire recently, mostly because of a comment made by ESPN’s Michael Wilbon, is exit velocity. Quite frankly, it is cool to measure how hard players are hitting the baseball.

One issue among some fans is they take a number like exit velocity, and it is the only thing they look at. For Cleveland fans, Steven Kwan has a very low exit velocity, but there is no question he is a good hitter.

Two-time batting champ (and hitting for a high average still helps teams) Luis Arraez also doesn’t hit the ball that hard. Yet, in an interview a couple of years ago, Shane Bieber said he was one of the players he hated to face.

The point is while it is something that can be measured, it really has nothing to do with how good a player is performing.

We hear this locally when hearing about Guardians’ infielder Gabriel Arias. His fans constantly point out how hard he hits the baseball. Unfortunately, he doesn’t hit it all that often. He has an average exit velo of 89.8, and a hard hit rate of 39.7%. He also strikes out 31.7% of the time.

Compare those number to Kwan, a much more accomplished hitter. His exit velocity average is 82.3 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is 18%.

Let’s compare Arias to a less accomplished major league player, Tyler Freeman. He has an average exit velocity of 89.1 MPH, a tick below Arias, and his hard-hit percentage is 41.4%. His K rate is just 15.9%.

Those numbers would indicate why the Guardians’ front office have stayed with Freeman longer despite struggling early this year.

By the way, the Guardian who ranks 7th in hard hit percentage. It’s Jose Ramirez. And Arias’ exit velocity is also a tad higher than Ramirez. The difference is the five-time all-star only strikes out in 11.3% of his plate appearances.

We understand to market itself, especially to younger fans, baseball tries to point out excitement, the spectacular play, the rocket off the bat, etc. However, lost in that is what helps teams win games, which is the object of the sport.

It’s not sexy or exciting to hit a ground ball to the right side to move a runner to third base with less than two outs or hit a sacrifice fly, but it helps winning.

Sabermetrics is a good thing, but it seems to have gone overboard. A recent question about what the biggest problem about baseball was recently asked, and someone said the overuse of analytics in today’s game.

There were a lot of responses agreeing with that sentiment.

The point is in evaluating players there are many things to look at, no one should focus on just one. And also, people need to remember the game is not a skills competition, they keep score for a reason.

Different Things For Guardians So Far

We all knew there would be a change in philosophy for the Cleveland Guardians when Terry Francona decided he would not be back as manager of the team. We also know that the front office is also deeply involved in the day to day running of the team, so there would be a question of how the change would manifest itself.

So far, the change has worked out very well, as the Guards are off to baseball’s best record at 16-6. Yes, we know the schedule hasn’t actually been loaded with the best teams in baseball, but Seattle and Minnesota were regarded as contenders coming into the season, and the A’s are basically a .500 team when not playing Cleveland.

One change we’ve noticed is the organization isn’t selling out for defense at all costs. Over the last two seasons, Cleveland played Myles Straw almost exclusively in centerfield because of his defense. They did this even though Straw was one of the worst offensive players in the sport over 2022 and 2023.

In 2024, Tyler Freeman has moved from shortstop to be the primary CF, and already has three homers and 11 RBIs, compared to Straw’s single long ball and 29 ribbies a year ago.

New manager Steven Vogt has made a concerted effort to use the entire roster. Through 16 games, every Cleveland player has at least 39 plate appearances save for Austin Hedges, who has 26. Hedges has been in seven contests, but every other player has been in at least 13 games.

One thing that has continued has been versatility. David Fry has already caught, and played 1B, 3B, and LF. Gabriel Arias has played six different positions to date (3B, 1B, SS, 2B, RF, and CF). Being able to play several positions helps a player get at bats.

Another thing that seems different is the earning of at bats by players. With Arias swinging a good bat right now, he has been in the lineup at different positions pretty much every day.

Fry is hitting .303 with a homer and seven runs batted in and a 917 OPS, and Vogt is finding ways to get him in the lineup. Remember last season how Freeman seemed to only play on Sundays?

The bullpen usage has been different too. Francona had a bit of a caste system, certain guys pitched when they had the lead, and others pitched when they were behind. Granted, the Guardians haven’t trailed a lot this year, but Vogt seems to use anyone at any time.

He has said the only reliever who has a set “role” is Emmanuel Clase, otherwise, everyone else needs to be ready.

That said, it seems Hunter Gaddis has earned the most trust from the skipper, and he seems to get the ball in the 8th inning of close games.

Vogt does seem to go to the bullpen if the starter is getting near the end of the line. He removed both Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco with two outs in an inning after they allowed a baserunner.

We understand the thought process, but with the relief corps taking on a huge burden early this year, perhaps give the starter an opportunity to get the last out. However, on Sunday, he did let Tanner Bibee go an extra couple of hitters and he didn’t get the third out and Cleveland had to go to the ‘pen anyway.

Of course, it would help if the starters could go six or seven innings on a regular basis. The walks have plagued the rotation. They’ve issued 51 of the 85 bases on balls given up by the pitching staff to date.

We just wanted to point out some of the changes from last year. It’s not meant as a criticism of Francona, who would admit that every manager likes to do things a certain way.

Right now, Steven Vogt is pushing the right buttons. And the results are in the standings. So far, so good.

A Week Away From Real Baseball For Guardians

It’s just a week away, baseball fans. We know the Dodgers and Padres are playing a series in Korea, but the real season gets underway a week from today, and the Guardians have a long trip to start the campaign as the construction at Progressive Field continues.

Steven Vogt’s squad are scheduled to play 10 games before arriving in Cleveland for the home opener. And some of the questions about the roster are beginning to take shape.

We have no inside sources on this and no hidden agendas, so this is just our opinion on how things are shaking out.

At shortstop, it appears Brayan Rocchio is taking the lead after struggling mightily at the beginning of exhibition play. The switch-hitter is starting to swing the bat well, up to .270 and he isn’t doing it against minor league pitchers.

His chief competition, Gabriel Arias, had the same problem that plagued him a year ago in the big leagues, lack of contact. Arias has hit just .167 (5 for 30) and has fanned nine times.

When Arias hits the ball, he hits it hard, but he just doesn’t do it often enough to be in the lineup every day.

The other hotly contested spot is centerfield, with incumbent Myles Straw, one of the game’s worst hitters last year vying for time with Estevan Florial, with Tyler Freeman trying to nose his way in the mix.

How the playing time gets divided is probably dependent on how much the organization believes Straw’s bat is fixed. Frankly, he hasn’t faced the quality of pitching the other two have, but he has gone 9 for 25 with three walks.

Florial’s spring training has been shocking and not in a good way. We knew he had a lot of swing and miss in his game, but in exhibition play, he has gone 6 for 40 with 19 strikeouts. Oh, and just one extra base hit and two walks. If we were the skipper, it would be very difficult to write his name in the lineup.

He’s out of options, so it is very likely he will make the trip to Oakland.

Freeman has faced the best pitching of the three and has hit .286 with a 783 OPS. We have been wanting to see him get every day playing time in the majors for a while now, because of his minor league pedigree.

He will be in the mix for sure, it will be interesting to see how Vogt will handle his at bats.

And lastly, will Deyvison De Los Santos make the team? He’s a rule 5 draft pick, so if he doesn’t make the big club, he has to be offered back to Arizona or work out a deal to keep him.

He’s a right-handed bat, which is in his favor. He’s picked it up a bit recently, and overall has gone 10 for 42 with a double and a home run. On the negative side, he has also whiffed nine times without drawing a walk.

Perhaps the Guardians already made this decision when they sent Kyle Manzardo back to the minors, despite him going 8 for 21 with four extra base hits. If they would’ve kept him, he would have been in the mix at 1B and DH, where De Los Santos can play the outfield and third base as well.

Not keeping Manzardo sends the wrong message to us. The organization traded a major league starting pitcher to get him and he played in AAA last year. He should have made the team unless his spring training was like say, Florial’s.

We all know why Manzardo isn’t with the big club, they are manipulating his service time instead of focusing on winning a division that is very winnable.

It’s another reason it is tough to be a Guardians’ fan sometimes.

Who Will Make Up Guardians’ Roster?

It is kind of sneaking up on people, but the Cleveland Guardians will open the season a little over two weeks from now, two weeks from Thursday in fact, when they take on the Oakland A’s in Steven Vogt’s debut as manager.

Vogt and the front office haven’t made many roster decisions as of yet, so there are still a lot of players in camp, and they can only take 26 to Oakland. Here is how we see things shaping up to date, barring injury.

The catchers are set, Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges will be the backstops, and the starting rotation will be Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen, unless Williams’ elbow issue is lingering.

Three quarters of the infield are set with 1B Josh Naylor, 2B Andres Gimenez, and 3B Jose Ramirez, the shortstop job is still seemingly up for grabs as neither Gabriel Arias (3 for 16) nor Brayan Rocchio (2 for 20) have taken control.

And in the outfield, it looks like Steven Kwan and Ramon Laureano has spots etched in stone, and because of his contract, Myles Straw is a lock too. That would be 13 players.

Five spots in the bullpen are settled: Emmanuel Clase, Scott Barlow, Sam Hentges, Eli Morgan, and Nick Sandlin.

Two of the last three spot in relief should go to free agent Ben Lively and old friend Carlos Carrasco. That would leave the last spot going to either Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis, or Tim Herrin.

With the 8 relievers, that means 21 spots are filled and five would be open. We assume Tyler Freeman has one of those spots locked up, and the decision should be whether he is starting in centerfield, shortstop, or second base (with Gimenez moving to SS).

Will Brennan probably has the team made as well, which would leave three spots open. One of those would be the utility infield spot, which likely will not go to phenom Angel Martinez. More than likely it would be either Arias or Rocchio, probably the former, with an outside shot for Jose Tena.

Another question would be the players who are out of options, of which Cleveland has four. Two of them, Hentges and Lively should have spots locked up.

Deyvison De Los Santos is another because he was selected in the rule 5 draft and has to make the team or be offered back to Arizona. If he stays, he’s pretty much the 26th man.

The other is Estevan Florial, who has underwhelmed to date, going 2 for 22 with 10 strikeouts. He really has done nothing to make the team, but we wonder if he gets a spot because he’s out of options.

If the organization keeps both De Los Santos and Florial, that will make the roster complete. And it would also keep David Fry and Kyle Manzardo off the Opening Day roster.

We would like to see both in Oakland on March 28th. Fry is a right-handed bat with some pop and can also serve as a third catcher. That would enable Vogt to pinch-hit for Hedges on days he starts.

We’ve been pretty clear that we think Manzardo should come north with the big club, but we would like to see more at bats vs. big league arms. So far in camp, he has gone 6 for 13 with two doubles and two walks and four Ks.

On the flip side, we only want him up if the Guards plan to give him plenty of plate appearances. If he’s going to be in there once or twice a week, then send him to AAA.

Of course, there could still be some minor trades or worse, injuries that affect this projection. However, the beginning of the season is getting closer.

Non Money Moves Made Or Not Made By Guardians

We have talked about this a lot since the calendar turned to 2024, but it has been a very, very quiet off-season for the Cleveland Guardians. Outside of a few transactions around the time a team had to offer arbitration to its players, it seems like the construction around Progressive Field has closed the front office too.

We aren’t going to get into the financial stuff here, we have been well informed on the whole broadcast revenue with Bally Sports and how the Guardians have claimed it prevented them for spending this winter.

However, there are things we would have liked the organization to do this off-season which would not have caused a financial burden. Here are some things we wish they’d have taken care of:

Ease The Middle Infield Glut. If you have five shortstops do you have one? Once the exhibition games start, new skipper Steven Vogt will have to decide who will get the majority of the playing time in the middle infield, particularly at short.

We say that because the Guards seem loathe to move Andres Gimenez, who played 400 games in the minor leagues at shortstop to that spot in the big leagues. So, the primary candidates are Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio, with Tyler Freeman and Jose Tena on the outside.

They gave Arias a full shot at the job a year ago after Amed Rosario was traded, and he had a 643 OPS in the second half, batting .227. Rocchio had an outstanding winter league season, and frankly, we have felt he was regarded as the heir apparent to the spot by the organization.

We would give Rocchio the spot to start and see if the winter league carries over. The back up plan for us would be moving Gimenez to SS and seeing if Freeman can hit like he did in the minors with regular at bats.

Catching Reserve. Last season, the Guardians employed Cam Gallagher as the backup catcher all year, first behind Mike Zunino and then Bo Naylor. He received 143 at bats and hit .125 (322 OPS).

We dare you to find anyone worse with a bat in their hand. Early in the off-season, they claimed Christian Bethancourt from Tampa. He hit .225 but banged 11 homers and had a 635 OPS. Not Babe Ruth production but better than what Gallagher provided.

But then they let Bethancourt go and re-signed veteran Austin Hedges for a second go round with the Guards. Hedges is an excellent defensive catcher, but he can’t hit.

In 199 games with Cleveland, he has a .169 batting average and 502 OPS. We get he is a great clubhouse presence, but he can’t hit.

Have we mentioned the Guardians need hitting?

Find A Taker For Straw. Vogt and Chris Antonetti have both talked about giving the Guardians’ young outfielders an opportunity this year, but that may prove difficult because Myles Straw is still on the roster.

The problem for the Guards is Straw still has two years on his deal, worth an estimated $13.8 million. A second problem is as we said before, the Guardians need offense and Straw has been one of baseball’s worst hitters over the last two seasons.

We get that no one wants to take that contract unless it is included in a bigger deal, as many proposed in possible trades involving Shane Bieber. But the Guardians usual move is to play Straw because they owe him the cash. That’s the real problem.

And based on the Guardians’ history, if he is on the roster, they will feel obligated to put him in the lineup.

Can Guardians Manage Their Glut At Certain Spots?

The Cleveland Guardians have had problems making decisions on players, particularly their prospects. For example, before the 2022 season, Cleveland had four shortstops listed in their top 10 prospects: Tyler Freeman (#2), Brayan Rocchio (#4), Gabriel Arias (#5), and Angel Martinez (#10).

Two years later, what do we know about these four young players? The one with the most at-bats is Arias, who has 362 in his career. Martinez is still considered a prospect, ranking #6 in the 2024 rankings, but now is considered a second baseman.

We understand the philosophy of drafting shortstops. They are generally the best athletes on the field, and therefore you can move them to other positions. For example, Mickey Mantle was signed as a shortstop. Current Guardian broadcaster Rick Manning was drafted #2 overall as one.

Both eventually became outfielders.

On the other hand, in today’s baseball, top prospects are like currency, that is to say, they can lose value over time. Freeman as we noted was the club’s #2 prospect just two years ago. We doubt he would bring back much in a trade right now.

He’s become stale. He’s not putting up gaudy numbers in the minors, he spent all of 2023 in Cleveland, getting just 168 plate appearances.

By the way, we have said many times over the past couple of years is we believe ultimately, Rocchio will wind up being the everyday shortstop and his play this winter season (.377 batting average, 998 OPS) hopefully caught the eye of the decision makers in the front office.

Now, it looks like the same thing is happening in the outfield, where the team is collecting CF and RFs. New manager Steven Vogt has hinted the Guards would like to take a good luck at former Yankee prospect Estevan Florial, but where?

Myles Straw, who was arguably the worst offensive player in the game last season, is still on the roster, and they resigned Ramon Laureano, who had a 724 OPS with Cleveland after being claimed on waivers in August.

And they still have Will Brennan, as well as rookies Johnathan Rodriguez and seemingly perpetual prospect George Valera on the 40-man roster.

Also, their #5 prospect, Juan Brito is listed as a second baseman, but doesn’t profile well there defensively, and last season, we suggested a shift to the outfield.

Freeman has also been working in the outfield this winter, in an effort to get more at bats with the big club in 2024.

Remember the football adage if you have two quarterbacks, then you don’t really have one? The same is true for the Guardians. If you have four shortstops, do you really have one? If you have five CF/RF, do you have those positions covered?

Once again, it seems like the organization doesn’t want to make a mistake, so in their cautiousness, they also don’t make a decision. A sort of “paralysis by analysis” thing.

Frankly, any decision they make should be based on hitting first. That’s the area of need for the 2024 Guardians. Their offense bordered on woeful a year ago.

We say all the time, if you can’t hit, you can’t play. Over the past few years, there seems to be an overemphasis on the glove. We aren’t saying put a bunch of terrible defenders on the field, but you also don’t need a Gold Glove at every spot.

Hopefully, decisions will finally be made early this year, meaning spring training or early in the regular season. And even better, it would be nice if whatever is decided is the right move.

This Year, Spring Training Doesn’t Hold The Same Excitement

We have made no bones about the fact that baseball is our favorite sport. And usually, this time of year has us excited. Spring training is about to begin, and like many fans, we put together potential lineups in our head and think about what young prospects could make a difference for the Guardians.

We don’t have that same feeling this winter.

Part of it is the sports itself and how it is covered. When MLB Network first came out, we loved it. A station that talked nothing about what used to be the “national pastime.”

Much of the winter was spent showing old games, where we could show our children players like Sandy Koufax, Pete Rose, Joe Morgan, Roberto Clemente, and even Mark “The Bird” Fidrych.

Now, the network has turned into group think, where no one has diverse opinions and much of the talk is solely about sabremetric statistics, which we do pay attention to, but we are starting to see “analytics” as a justification to make a decision.

For example, the Guardians played Gabriel Arias at shortstop most of the last two months because he has an outstanding exit velocity, meaning he hits the ball hard. The problem for Arias though, is he rarely hits it.

None of the guys we grew up playing baseball with think Arias is a good player. None.

There is a place in the sport for these numbers, but it would be okay if someone talked about runs scored, RBI, and disagreed that a good player should make the Hall of Fame.

Besides, how many times can you watch Little Big League?

But it is the local situation that really has us not looking forward to the season with the same zeal.

The Cleveland Guardians won the AL Central Division in 2022, and at the all-star break last season, were still in the race. Then, at the trading deadline, they moved one of their starting pitchers, even though they had two starters injured, and moved one of their middle of the order bats.

When the division leading Twins failed to pull away in August, and Terry Francona announced he was going to retire at the end of the season, they did claim three pitchers to bolster the staff to make a belated run.

It failed.

The Guardians’ offense is the chief problem, ranking 12th in the American League in runs scored. It would seem to be the area where the club could improve and vault into the post-season in 2024. However, the organization did nothing.

Yes, we know, in fact, we all know about the broadcast deal with Bally Sports. We all know because the ownership through the media tells fans about it all the time. We have said this often, if the people who pay the bills put as much energy in trying to make the team better and/or get more fans to the park as they do making excuses why they can’t spend money, the Guardians would be better off.

The team couldn’t even make a big announcement that the equipment truck was leaving for Arizona yesterday, a glimmer of spring hope in northeast Ohio, until several media outlets reported it was happening.

We lived through the Vernon Stouffer years, the Nick Mileti years, the Gabe Paul years, etc., and through the naivety of youth, still believed the Indians could contend. Fifty years later, and nothing has changed.

It used to be because the old decrepit base park that the team couldn’t compete. Now we have Progressive Field, and outside of the first ten years it was built, the excuse is the same.

We understand the finances of the game is a problem, and smaller markets are at a disadvantage, but we are certain the family who owns the Guardians is doing quite well. A good businessman finds another way.

We still love baseball, but we feel let down by it. We are sure someone will read this and say “go root for another team!”, but we grew up with the Cleveland Indians, and we are born and bred here.

The owners are the stewards of the franchise. Yet they continue to let us down. Fifty years from now, will there be fans like the guys we grew up with?

Guardians Seem To Have Changed Philosophy On Hitting

About 10 years ago, the Cleveland Guardians developed a philosophy about hitting. The theory was it was easier to teach a good contact hitter to hit for power than it was to instruct a power hitter to make more contact.

The prime examples were Jose Ramirez, who hit a grand total of 13 home runs in the minor leagues (216 in the majors) and Francisco Lindor, who’s high in the minor leagues was 11 dingers, and by his second full year in the bigs, belted 33.

Kyle Manzardo, who came in the Aaron Civale deal, also fits this profile. He struck out in 18% of his plate appearances last season and hit 17 homers.

As everyone is aware by now, the Guardians were last in the major leagues in home runs in 2023, so what moves they have made have involved getting power, but they are getting players with high strikeout rates and low walk rates.

Why do we focus on this? Because generally, those players can be pitched to, meaning pitchers aren’t dumb and if they realize they can retire a hitter without throwing him a strike, then they probably won’t.

Not to pick on Amed Rosario, but how many times did we watch him strikeout without the pitcher throwing a ball in the strike zone? We realize the game has changed (not all changes are for the good) and hitters sell out to hit more home runs, but sometimes you can score without getting a hit. Can’t do that with a strikeout.

It’s not impossible for a hitter to succeed with that profile, but it isn’t the norm.

For example, Oscar Gonzalez struck out almost six times as much as he walked in the minor leagues. His first year in the bigs, he hit .296 with 11 homers, but he did fan 75 times with just 15 walks.

His next year? He hit .214 with two round-trippers and struck nine times more than he walked (46:5). It will be interesting to see how the Yankees will handle him.

This off-season, the Guardians elevated Johnathan Rodriguez to the 40 man roster. He has hit 55 home runs the past two minor league seasons, including 29 last season at the AA and AAA levels. He did strike out in 29% of his plate appearance last season in the minors. That’s the bad news.

The good news is his walk rate was the highest of his minor league career. Perhaps that’s a good sign.

The same is true with Estevan Florial, acquired from the Yankees the day after Christmas. Florial hit 28 dingers at AAA last season with a career high 66 walks. He did strikeout in 30% of his plate appearances in the minors a year ago.

The Guardians do a lot of touting of Gabriel Arias, because he has a very strong exit velocity when he hits the ball. However, that’s the problem. He whiffed in 32.8% of his at bats for the Cleveland a year ago.

In addition to being last in the majors in home runs last season, the Guardians also struck out the least. However, it is possible hit for power and not whiff excessively.

Of the top ten in the lowest number of strikeouts last year, five teams made the playoffs, including the Braves, who led the majors in home runs with 307, and Houston, who were fifth in the bigs in runs scored.

We have our doubts that the new power with high strikeout rates will work for the Guardians. We think they should focus on getting more men on base, a higher on-base percentage.

Of the teams with the 10 worst OBP in the sport in 2023, none made the playoffs. Maybe there is a correlation there.

Guardians Need Pop, But From Good Hitters

When people talk about the Cleveland Guardians’ offense and how to improve it, the conversation usually centers around home runs. The Guards simply don’t hit many, ranking last in the majors, 27 behind the team with the next fewest, the Washington Nationals.

But we feel Cleveland doesn’t need guys who hit home runs, rather they need good hitters who can also hit home runs.

Right now, we would say the Guardians have two of these hitters in Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor. Ramirez hit .282 this season with a .356 on base percentage and also had 65 extra base hits, including 24 home runs.

Naylor batted .308 to rank fifth in the American League in batting average (he would have been third had he had enough at bats) with a .354 OBP and 48 extra base hits.

We mention extra base hits because that is power. Getting double and triples usually result in runs being scored.

And we say that knowing we watched the Guardians hit a lot of leadoff doubles and stranded that hitter at second base. The days of get ’em over and get ’em in are over folks. Although we don’t know why.

The Guardians also need to walk more (and swing less). Cleveland ranks 6th in the major leagues in swinging at pitches, and it may surprise you to know of the seven teams that rank highest in swing rate, five of them have bad or average offenses (White Sox, Rockies, Angels, Royals, and Guardians). Only the Braves and Rays buck that trend.

Teams that swing a lot are vulnerable to good pitching, usually because you are not just swinging at pitches in the strike zone. If you are a regular reader of this site, you know we are very suspicious of hitters with high strikeout and low walk rates.

It’s why we are a bit concerned about Gabriel Arias, who had a 32.8% strikeout rate last season with just an 8.1% walk rate. Yes, he hits the ball hard, but he just doesn’t hit it that often.

Hitters who strikeout a lot and walk a lot are fine. First, walking means they are not making outs. Juan Soto is the prototype for this right now, he fanned 129 times this past season, and actually walked more, drawing a major league leading 132 walks.

We found this interesting. The top five in drawing walks in 2023 hit an average of 39.2 home runs, while the top five in strikeouts hit 29.4 long balls, almost 10 less than the more selective batters.

One player, Kyle Schwarber, ranked in the top five of both categories.

So, while the Guardians need to hit more home runs the ultimate goal would be to find hitters who swing at good pitches and can drive them. We thought that became the organizational philosophy when Ramirez and Francisco Lindor arrived. Find guys who make good contact and teach them to drive the ball.

They’ve done the first part, but the driving the ball hasn’t taken hold yet.

Maybe the next wave of that is George Valera, Kyle Manzardo, and Chase DeLauter.

The Guardians need more pop, but getting hitters who make a bunch of outs while doing it isn’t the answer.