If Tribe Can Get A Bat, What Kind Should They Get?

The Major League Baseball trading deadline is less than a week away, and we all know the Cleveland Indians have gaping holes in the lineup.

They are tied for 13th in the American League in runs scored per game, and they remain last in the league in slugging percentage and second to the bottom in OPS. The one statistic they are doing well in is drawing walks, they are 4th in the AL.

Although it seems like they strikeout a lot, they are only 8th in the league, but in thinking about some of the rallies that have died recently, it seems as if when they need a big hit, instead they get a strikeout.

Obviously, when your starting outfield is batting under .200 collectively, any batter doing anything offensively would be an improvement. However, to us, what the Tribe needs is more of a professional hitter than a big time slugger for this offense.

The Tribe has five hitters in their lineup right now than have belted 30 home runs or more in the their careers: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Franmil Reyes, and Domingo Santana.

However, how much would getting another all or nothing slugger like Reyes (35 strikeouts, 8 walks) or D. Santana, who surprisingly has walked 12 times this season against 24 whiffs, help this offense greatly.

We confess we do not like hitters with poor strikeout to walk ratios. While there are exceptions, we find those players ultimately have a shorter span of usefulness because eventually pitchers do not have to throw them strikes to get them out.

Case in point, it is why we had doubts about Oscar Mercado coming into this season. He fanned three times as much as he walked last season. This year, he struck out 14 times, walking just three.

Players with high strikeout totals and high walk totals, are usually very good offensive players. Jim Thome and Travis Hafner come to mind.

Think about Carlos Santana. The switch-hitting first baseman is batting just .212 this season with only three homers. You know what he’s not doing for the most part? Getting himself out. He leads the AL in taking walks by a large margin.

One guy we would love to have is (and we aren’t saying he’s available) would be a player like Whit Merrifield of the Royals. He’s a .296 lifetime hitter (791 OPS), and although his strikeout rate has gone up a bit in recent years, he puts the bat on the ball. And he’s versatile, capable of playing 2B and the outfield.

If Arizona decides to sell, Starling Marte would be of interest too. He has a career 794 OPS, and although he doesn’t walk a great deal (career high 35 in 2018), his strikeout totals have steadily declined since he came into the league.

One thing is for certain, the Tribe certainly needs to lengthen its batting order. Although Tyler Naquin has been on a little hot streak recently, most nights once Reyes bats, it would be a good time to refill whatever snacks you are eating while watching the Indians. Not much is going to happen.

Don’t complain about the catchers hitting either. Understand, the Cleveland organization values defense and handling pitchers first and foremost from their backstops. If they get any offense, like they did a year ago from Perez, that’s a bonus. They don’t care if they hit .150 as long as they do their primary job.

We feel confident the front office will do something before Monday’s deadline. The pitching is at World Series winner level. The offense is at expansion team level. Improving the latter could lead to a long post-season run.

Tribe Needs Consistency From Top Of The Order.

There is one word missing when describing the offense of the Cleveland Indians so far this season.

No, the word isn’t runs, although we could have used that. The real word we are talking about is consistency.

Just looking at the last three days, you can see what we are talking about. Thursday night, they lambasted the Reds, 13-0. That was followed by Cleveland being shutout by the White Sox, 2-0, and yesterday, they put seven up on the board in win over the Pale Hose.

Because baseball is a sport played pretty much on a daily basis, it is a sport where consistency is a must.

The Indians just haven’t gotten that, particularly from the top five men in the order, the players who figured to carry the burden of the offense this season, save for new 2B, Cesar Hernandez.

While Jose Ramirez has been the Tribe’s best hitter, Hernandez has been the most consistent.

The former Phillie has had a hit in all but three games in this young season, and in the games he hasn’t had a hit, he reached base via the walk. Quite frankly, he has done everything Terry Francona hoped for when he decided to lead him off.

In nine of the 15 games he’s played, he’s reached twice. So, he has certainly set the table for Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, and Franmil Reyes.

Ramirez leads the club in hits, home runs, RBIs, and OPS, but 10 of his 17 hits have come in three games, his homers have come in two games, and eight of his 11 ribbies have occurred in the same two games.

He recently went through an 0 for 15 on the last trip to Minnesota and Cincinnati.

Lindor had a two hit game in the 7-1 victory over Chicago, but it was only his third two hit game of the season. He’s walked just three times this season (once intentionally), and has only been on base more than once in a contest five times.

After striking out nine times in the first seven games, he has fanned just four times in the last nine. Hopefully, that a good sign for things to come.

Carlos Santana had two hits in each game of the doubleheader sweep at home against Chicago on July 28th, but has had just four hits since, and none have been home runs.

The good sign for him? Is there is such a thing as a walk tear, Santana is on one. He’s taken a free ride nine times in the last three games, and 13 times in the last seven games. He isn’t getting good pitches to hit, so he’s being very patient, which is way better than chasing and making outs.

Not a surprise, he leads the AL in walks this season with 20.

Reyes has perhaps struggled the most. Until his game winning HR Tuesday night in Cincinnati, he had just one extra base hit, and that was a groundball that eluded two Minnesota defenders and he hustled into second on what should have been a 6-3 or 4-3 putout.

He’s put together three straight two hit games, the first Indian that can say that this season. It would be nice if he could take a few more walks, but the Tribe needs Reyes to provide some pop, and two dingers this week were a sight for sore eyes.

When Cleveland gets something from the 6-9 spots in the order, they can score, but you can probably say that for most teams.

Tribe catchers are 3 for 51 on the season with no extra base hits and just one RBI.

Yesterday, Domingo Santana and Jordan Luplow joined Bradley Zimmer as the only outfielders to hit a home run.

While it would be nice for those spots in the order to get going, more consistent production is needed from the top five in the batting order. Hernandez has gotten the job done, now the next four hitters have to do the same.

No Panic Yet, But Tribe Offensive Is A Concern

Normally, there wouldn’t be any concern about the Cleveland Indians’ offense after just eight games. But as we all know, there is very little about 2020 that can be considered normal.

In a 60 game season, when the Indians and Twins finish their series in Minnesota on Sunday, the Tribe will have played 1/6th of their schedule, equaling 27 games on the usual docket.

And that makes the offense a concern, and it puts Terry Francona in a tough spot.

Cleveland is second to last in the American League in runs scored per game, ahead of only the Texas Rangers, who sit at 2-4. The Indians are 5-4, because their pitching staff has been brilliant thus far.

Yes, Mike Clevinger didn’t have a great outing Friday night, the first “poor” start of the campaign for the team, but the staff did hold Minnesota, who is second in the AL in runs per game, to just four tallies, and Carlos Carrasco gave up just three runs last night, but the Tribe mustered none.

The average American League team is scoring 4.4 runs per game to date, and the Indians have passed that standard just twice in the nine games. If you remove the nine run outburst against the Royals’ bullpen game last Sunday, the Tribe hitters are producing a paltry two runs a contest.

They are also last in the league in extra base hits with just 13 in the nine contests.

Eventually, you have to think the pitching staff is going to have a hiccup. They’ve allowed four runs a game (less than the league average) twice, and lost both games. The way they have pitched, the Tribe should be undefeated, instead of 5-4.

The bottom of the order to date has been dreadful, and right now, Francona doesn’t seem to have figured out the correct combination in the outfield.

Domingo Santana has been fine, mostly because he has drawn seven walks, leading to an on base percentage of .458. But Cleveland signed him for his pop, and he has one extra base hit.

In fact, Tribe outfielders (and we will include Franmil Reyes, if you want to call what he hit last night a double) have just three extra base hits. Santana has a double, Bradley Zimmer has a home run, and the Reyes double.

Zimmer is 5 for 17 thus far, the the summer camp sensation had one game where he went 2 for 4 with the HR, so the rest of the games, he is 3 for 13.

Reyes is 6 for 30 with 2 RBI, but hasn’t hit the long ball yet. His lone extra base hit was a squibbler up the middle that eluded the shortstop and second baseman.

Jordan Luplow is hitless in 12 at bats, and Oscar Mercado is 2 for 22 with no walks and five strikeouts.

Mercado’s at bat Friday night in Minnesota is what we worry about him, a lack of strike zone discipline. Randy Dobnak was trying to walk him, but Mercado didn’t take ball four, he fouled them off until he waved at a pitch in the dirt.

Again, normally, there wouldn’t be a concern for a few weeks, but this season is different. Right now, we would use Zimmer in center, especially vs. RHP, with Santana in right, and why not take a look at Daniel Johnson in LF?

And we might give Christian Arroyo a few at bats, although it might be tough. After all, he hasn’t had one to this point in the season.

Understand this also, Cleveland isn’t going to get any offense from the catching spot with Roberto Perez out. The organization wants defense and game calling first from that position, and that’s why Sandy Leon and Beau Taylor are there.

We understand Francisco Lindor hasn’t got going either, and neither has Carlos Santana, but both of them look like Stan Musial compared to the bottom four in the order.

We would not use the word panic, but instead say concern about the Cleveland outfield. For now, Terry Francona is searching for the hot bat, to help the Indians generate some runs.

Questions For Tribe Heading Into Training Camp.

Next week, the Cleveland Indians as well as other Major League Baseball teams will gather for training for 2020 abbreviated season. We can’t call it “spring” training now, because, well, it’s no longer spring.

The Tribe will carry 60 players throughout the season, but only 30 will be active on the new Opening Day, and eventually, that number will be reduced to 26.

However, much like any other season, there are questions going into camp and Terry Francona and his coaching staff can hopefully find some answers. And they will have to do so via a bunch of intrasquad games.

Can Franmil Reyes take a regular turn in the OF? If he can, then it opens up at bats for newcomer Domingo Santana, adding another power bat (and strikeouts) to the batting order.

If he cannot, Santana may have a problem making the team. And it would also mean the brass would have to find another outfielder who can swing the bat. The current pool doesn’t have anyone proven, it’s made up of Jake Bauers, rookie Daniel Johnson, Bradley Zimmer, and Greg Allen.

Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff made the moves this winter based on Reyes being able to play outfield acceptably. So, it’s a pretty big deal.

The development of Oscar Mercado. No doubt, Mercado had a solid rookie season a year ago, hitting .269 with 15 homers, 15 steals, and a 761 OPS.

However, there is a term called the sophomore slump for a reason.

The statistic that worries us is the strikeout to walk ratio, and Mercado accepted just 28 free passes vs. 84 whiffs. His on base percentage was just .318.

He started out very good in May and June, hitting over .300 in both months, but his on base average declined from May until it went up a bit in September, and you know what they say about April and September stats.

If Mercado doesn’t perform like he did a year ago, that leaves Delino DeShields, not a good offensive player, and again players like Allen and Zimmer competing for time.

Handling the Starting Pitching. There has been speculation on how teams will handle starters, who won’t be stretched out enough when the season begins.

Some think skippers will use tandem starters, such as Shane Bieber will go 3-4 innings, and then say, Adam Plutko will go three more to get the game to the actual bullpen.

We think Francona and pitching coach Carl Willis could do that while the roster is at 30 players, but we also believe they know what the strength of the team is, and they will try to get Bieber, Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac stretched out as quickly as possible.

So, you might see it the first five games, but not much beyond that.

Players Not On The Big League Roster. We’ve already mentioned some of these players, like Allen, Zimmer, Johnson, etc. and it will be important to keep them ready should injuries occur.

The Indians are reported to be carrying several top prospects, including last year’s first round pick Daniel Espino, and 19-year-old George Valera, as well as Nolan Jones and Tyler Freeman on the 60 player pool.

Their development is super important to the organization going forward, beyond the 2020 season.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out, because certainly Jones was thought to be ready for the majors as early as 2021, and maybe late this season.

There have been rumors of an expanded Arizona Fall League this year, so more prospects can get some playing time against players from other organizations.

That would be ideal if it can be done with the virus perhaps still looming.

No doubt, this training camp will be different, and it will also be interesting to see how it is covered and when the intrasquad games will commence.

The good news is…baseball is back!

Tribe Killing It In Simulated Seasons

With baseball still on the shelf, the only way you can get the feeling of following a team day by day is by checking out the various simulations of the 2020 season out there.

In April, we checked out a couple such games, the Out Of The Park simulation being conducted on BaseballReference.com and the other being played out on StratOMatic.com.

According to both of these sites, baseball fans in northeast Ohio and missing one helluva season.

BaseballReference.com: The Tribe leads the AL Central with a 48-27 record and holds a seven game bulge on the second place Minnesota Twins. That mark is the best in the American League, and third best in baseball, behind the Dodgers and Cardinals.

Offensively, the Indians are being paced by Carlos Santana (.315, 14 HR, 54 RBI, 932 OPS), Francisco Lindor (.288, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 887 OPS), and Jose Ramirez (.274, 16 HR, 46 RBI, 867 OPS).

Franmil Reyes has belted 20 long balls, and Tyler Naquin returned to the active roster in May and is hitting .323. Jordan Luplow is getting steady playing time and has 10 homers to go along with a .283 batting average.

Newcomers Cesar Hernandez (.301, 6 HR, 34 RBI, .370 OBP) and Domingo Santana (.256, 10 HR) and fit in quite well to the lineup.

As we noted in April, this game has been playing Greg Allen at the everyday CF, and he’s done well, batting .280 with a .347 on base percentage.

Pitching wise, Shane Bieber has fit the profile as a staff ace with an 11-4 mark and a 2.98 ERA and 116 strikeouts in 114 innings. Aaron Civale is 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA, and though Carlos Carrasco (4-4, 4.30) and Mike Clevinger (3-3, 5.37) have struggled a bit, rookie lefty Scott Moss has picked up the slack, going 7-1 with a 4.48 ERA.

Brad Hand has 17 saves, and James Karinchak has a 1.98 ERA in 13 innings, but has fanned 24 hitters in that span.

The game had the Tribe picking up veteran relievers John Axford, Jim Johnson, and Daniel Stumpf as well.

One bone to pick–they had Cleveland dealing Tyler Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, and Juan Carlos Mejia to Texas for catcher Robinson Chirinos, a deal the Indians’ front office would never make.

StratOMatic.com: This simulation also has the Tribe sitting with a 48-27 record and an 8 game lead over the Twins in the Central. Cleveland has the second best mark in the AL (behind Houston) and third in MLB overall (Dodgers).

Reyes is the offensive machine for the Indians, batting .334 with 21 home runs and 54 RBIs, Lindor leads the team in ribbies with 55, along with 19 bombs and a .271 batting average.

Ramirez checks in at .259 with 14 homers and 45 runs knocked in.

They also have Luplow getting more playing time, and he’s responded with 7 HR, 26 RBI, and a .290 batting average.

Hernandez has had a fine season to date here as well, batting .295 with 8 dingers. And Carlos Santana is batting .300 and is third in the AL in walks with 50. His power is down so far with just 6 homers.

They have used Delino DeShields as the primary CF, hitting .258 although Bradley Zimmer has just been recalled. Oscar Mercado is on the team, but batting just .232.

Clevinger has been the best pitcher, going 5-1 with a 2.32 ERA and 74 punchouts in 73 innings, while Bieber has been solid, with an 8-5 mark, 3.59 ERA and 114 whiffs in 100 frames.

Zach Plesac is 7-4 with a 3.57 ERA.

Brad Hand has struggled. He has 21 saves, but a 5.73 ERA, but the relievers have been buoyed by strong performances from Phil Maton (1.44 ERA), James Hoyt (1.26 ERA in just 14 innings).

Karinchak has a 3.20 ERA in 25.1 innings with 32 strikeouts, and he has been joined by rookies Cam Hill and Kyle Nelson.

If these games are even close to realism, we are missing a great season to date by the Indians. Guess that should make everyone even more sad about what is going on in The National Pastime.

Bradley and Chang: Forgotten Indian Prospects?

When talking about the young players on the roster of the Cleveland Indians, the conversation usually is about guys like Oscar Mercado, presumed to be the starting centerfielder, or slugger Franmil Reyes, who many figured could have hit 40 home runs in a full season.

Or people talk about the young arms the Tribe has on the cusp of being quality big league starters, namely Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac, and perhaps Triston McKenzie, who missed all of last year with injuries.

Maybe people will bring up the flame throwers in the bullpen, James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, and depending how “in the know” they are, Cam Hill and Kyle Nelson.

However, two players who signed and were developed by the organization seem to be forgotten. Both are 24 years old right now, but it doesn’t feel like the Indians have plans for them any more.

We are talking about Yu Chang and Bobby Bradley.

A right-handed hitter shortstop, Chang debuted in the organization in 2014 in the Arizona Rookie League, and made his mark hitting .346 with 6 HR and a 986 OPS at age 18.

He played in Lake County as a 19 year old and struggled at the plate batting .232 with 9 dingers, and struggled with strike zone judgment, fanning 103 times in 440 plate appearances with just 27 walks.

He rebounded a bit at Lynchburg in 2016 (.259, 13 HR, 70 RBI, 795 OPS, increased walk rate) and had a good stint in the Arizona Fall League, batting .304.

However, in the AFL, he fanned 21 times and walked just 3 times.

Moving to AA in ’17, Chang did belt 24 homers, but hit just .220 and struck out 134 times in 504 plate appearances. In his first year at AAA in 2018, he batted .256 and followed that hitting .253, with a combined total of 22 homers.

In our eyes, you need to have the ability to get on base and/or drive the ball to be a big league hitter. Since his stint in rookie ball, Chang’s high in on base percentage is .332 and his minor league slugging percentage is just .436.

In 84 big league at bats, he hit .186 with one homer and whiffed 22 times in 84 PA.

The lack of ability to make contact or have good strike zone judgment is the reason the Tribe signed Cesar Hernandez as a free agent and traded for Christian Arroyo late last season.

And it’s going to be tough for infielder to show anything without a true minor league season in 2020.

As for Bradley, he might be able to get a spot on a 30 man daily roster, but it appears he’s not in their long range plans as an everyday player.

The left-handed hitter was a third round pick in ’14 and dominated the Arizona Rookie League, hitting .361 with 8 HR and 50 RBI (1.078 OPS). The following year, he started at Lake County, where he belted 27 long balls, hit .269, but fanned 148 times in 465 plate appearances.

He moved to high A Lynchburg for eight hitless at bats, and stayed there in 2016, hitting 29 homers, but his batting average dipped to .239, and although he drew 75 walks, which is good, he whiffed 175 times.

He had a 890 OPS at Lake County, and dropped to 810 at Lynchburg.

That figure fell further at Akron in 2017 to 796, as he hit .251 with 23 dingers. The strikeouts dropped to 122, which is good, but so did the walks (55).

He started the next season at Akron, hitting .214 with 24 bombs. His slugging percentage went up slightly, but his on base percentage dropped. He was promoted to Columbus later that season, hitting .254 with three homers in 32 games.

He seemed to change his approach last year, and didn’t care as much about cutting down on the strikeouts, accumulating 153 at AAA, but hit 33 homers, and had a 912 OPS.

Bradley had a cup of coffee with the big club, hitting one homer in 49 PA’s, but batted just .178 and struck out 20 times.

He’s only 24, and sometimes it takes awhile for these power hitters to find their niche in the big leagues, but trading for Reyes during the ’19 season and for Jake Bauers before last season, shows us, the contact problem concerns the Indians’ brass.

Again, the lack of a minor league season retards the development of both Chang and Bradley, as the duo need regular at bats to develop.

However, it does seem like the front office lost some of their enthusiasm for these two prospects. On the other hand, sometimes players get one shot, and they have to take advantage of that chance.

Solving The Indians’ OF Puzzle

As much as the infield of the Cleveland Indians is certain, the outfield is just the opposite as we possibly head into a second spring training.

The only player who can seemingly be penciled in to an everyday spot is centerfielder Oscar Mercado, and he has just 115 games and 482 plate appearances under his belt, although Franmil Reyes will be in there someplace, either in the outfield or as the DH.

The front office seems to be relying on Terry Francona and his staff working their magic and put the puzzle pieces together and provide the team with the proper mix of hitting and defense.

Reyes is the starting point because at age 23, he belted 37 homers and knocked in 81 (822 OPS). He would seem to be the middle of the order power bat the Tribe has been looking for years.

The Indians would like him to at least play rightfield at a decent level so he can be out there about 25-50% of the time, opening up the DH spot to give other players a partial day off.

The hope is his plate discipline will improve with experience, making him an elite offensive player.

Another player is must figure in the Indians’ plans is Jordan Luplow, at the very least a prime platoon piece, and hopefully a guy who can figure in the everyday lineup.

Luplow, 26, hit .320 with 14 dingers vs. southpaws (1.181 OPS) last season, but his minor league history doesn’t show huge disparities in his numbers vs. right-handers. He did hit just .216 with one homer vs. those pitchers in 2019.

He’s solid defensively, so he should get a good opportunity to see regular playing time is he is capable against righties, but worst case scenario he is valuable for what he can do against lefties.

Newcomer Domingo Santana also figures to get plenty of playing time, but it may be based on how much Reyes can play in the outfield. The right-handed hitter is just three years removed from a 30 HR season with the Brewers, and before a hand injury last season was hitting .286 with 18 bombs for the Mariners (850 OPS).

He struggles defensively though, so if Reyes can’t play RF well, Francona will have to pick his spots playing him in the field.

As for Mercado, it remains to be seen how he plays this year. Here is his OPS by month a year ago–

May: 52 plate appearances, 819 OPS
June: 115 PA, 844 OPS
July: 103 PA, 757 OPS
August: 100 PA, 573 OPS
September: 112 PA, 827 OPS

And you know what they say about ignoring numbers from April and September. So, the question remains, did the league make an adjustment to Mercado, and can he make one of his own?

With the delay in the start of the season, it means Tyler Naquin should be ready to go as well. Naquin could form a platoon partner with Luplow in LF, similar to what he did when Yasiel Puig came over at the trade deadline a year ago.

But Naquin had solid numbers vs. LHP last season, albeit in limited appearances (837 OPS in 63 at bats). And he hit .289 vs. RHP with six homers. His weakness? He swings at everything, his walk rate has dropped from 9.9% in his rookie year to 4.8% in 2019.

And you also have Delino DeShields, who has struggled offensively for much of his career, and the last two seasons in particular, despite playing in an offensive paradise in Texas.

His career road numbers? .207 BA, 574 OPS

He figures to be the back up plan should Mercado have a sophomore slump, and be used as a defensive replacement (he’s a very good defender) and pinch-runner.

The partial season seems to hurt players like Greg Allen and Bradley Zimmer, who needed to be productive in the minors to rebuild their value, and also Daniel Johnson, who hit very well at AA and AAA in ’19, but it will be difficult for him to make an impact on the brass.

There is no question the outfield is the weakest part of the Tribe’s roster, but hopefully, Terry Francona puts the puzzle in the correct alignment and gets some production.

If and when the Indians start to play, the microscope will be on this group.

Tribe’s Window Still Tied To Lindor.

There are rumblings that Major League Baseball could get underway in late June/early July with a new three ten team division set up and a truncated season.

That would be music to the ears of all baseball fans and provide at least some sense of normality this summer.

Matt Loede asked if any Cleveland sports team was close to winning a championship, and our reply was the Indians were closest, but the Browns had a bigger window.

The Tribe’s immediate opening is tied to their shortstop Francisco Lindor, in our opinion.

With Lindor here this season, and perhaps next, the Indians have a chance to win. Along with Jose Ramirez, Cleveland has a pair of the top position players in the game, along with a solid young starting pitching staff.

Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger should form a top of the rotation that is the envy of most teams in the majors, and if Carlos Carrasco is healthy, we already know he is capable of being one of the top ten starting pitchers in the game.

That’s a pretty good base to start with.

Among the position players, Franmil Reyes seems poised to have a monster season at the plate providing big time power in the middle of the lineup, and Carlos Santana is coming off his best season, but has turned 34 years old.

Cleveland values defense behind the plate, and they have that in Roberto Perez and Sandy Leon.

However, without Lindor, and Santana aging, you can see holes popping up in the everyday lineup.

Yes, you would still have Ramirez and Reyes, but then what?

The farm system is loaded, but that strength is located in the lower rungs of the system. Top prospect Nolan Jones would have seen some time at Columbus this season, and #2 prospect Tyler Freeman would have been at Akron, but the rest of the top ten position players, save for DH Bobby Bradley, haven’t played above the low Class A level, meaning they are a few years away.

As for the pitching, Carrasco would be 34 when 2022 (the year Lindor is a free agent) hits. While fans like the potential of young starters Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale, the reality is both have pitched less than one year in the big leagues.

They also have Logan Allen and Scott Moss (acquired in the Trevor Bauer deal last July), who will likely have started in AAA in 2020.

We also know that pitching is very volatile, and outside of Bieber, Clevinger, and Carrasco, none of the youngsters have any kind of track record.

As for the bullpen, we’ve seen how shaky that can be with Emmanuel Clase being suspended for 80 games whenever baseball resumes play.

With Lindor, the Indians have a solid base and can fill in at other spots in the lineup with players like Oscar Mercado, Jordan Luplow, Jake Bauers, and Tyler Naquin.

However, let’s look at where the Tribe will be in ’22. Lindor could be gone (yes, we are taking a foolishly optimistic view), and Santana can’t be counted on at age 36.

Can you have a contending team with two proven bats, Ramirez and Reyes? Perhaps one of the aforementioned players can step up to join them, or maybe Jones and Tyler Freeman becomes the next great rookie talents.

Same with the pitching staff, can Plesac and Civale follow the success of Bieber and Clevinger?

If baseball is played this season, perhaps by the end of that season, we will have a better idea as to how long the Indians’ window of contention can remain open.

Until then, the window is tied to Lindor. We would love to see all of the prospects emerge as stars, but the reality says that is unlikely to happen.

The Turnover Of The Indians’ Roster.

When the Cleveland Indians ended the 2018 season being swept in the American League Division Series by Houston (no comments!), the front office knew there was a problem.

Outside of the resident superstars, Francisco Lindor (then 24) and Jose Ramirez (25), they were an older team with not a lot of upside. Check the ages of the players getting regular playing time that season–

1B Yonder Alonso (31)
2B Jason Kipnis (31)
LF Michael Brantley (31)
RF Melky Cabrera (33)
DH Edwin Encarnacion (35)
C Yan Gomes (30)

And in September, the front office brought in Josh Donaldson (32) to play third, moving Ramirez to second, and put Kipnis in the outfield.

The Indians also had Rajai Davis (37) and Brandon Guyer (32) on the bench.

The pitching staff wasn’t much better. The rotation has Corey Kluber (32) and Carlos Carrasco (31), and the bullpen included Dan Otero (33), Andrew Miller (33), Josh Tomlin (33), and Oliver Perez (36).

President Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff knew that group went as far as it could, understanding the peak years for a player are ages 27-29.

He undertook the process of getting younger following that season. The most painful departures were Brantley, who left via free agency, and trading Gomes, both of whom had been in Cleveland for many years.

By the time spring training started a couple of months ago in Goodyear, the only players in the over 30 crowd still remaining are Carrasco and Oliver Perez.

This isn’t to say the Tribe doesn’t have anyone over 30, of course they do, because a couple of guys under that threshold in ’18 have now crossed over: Roberto Perez is now 31, and they acquired Carlos Santana (35) in the deal that sent Encarnacion to Seattle.

Cleveland also signed Cesar Hernandez (31) to play second base, but he is on a one year deal, and Santana has a club option for next season, when he will be 36.

Backup catcher Sandy Leon is also 31.

Among the pitchers, only Carrasco, and relievers Nick Wittgren (30), Adam Cimber (30), James Hoyt (34) and of course, Oliver Perez (38) are over 30, and outside of Cookie, none of those hurlers are the core to the pitching staff.

In two years, the Tribe is much younger, and still very much a contending team. Besides Ramirez (27) and Lindor (26), the everyday core group of players consists of these guys–

OF/DH Franmil Reyes (25)
CF Oscar Mercado (25)
OF Jordan Luplow (26)

And two more spots, currently filled by Santana and Hernandez could be filled by others next season. Don’t forget Nolan Jones (22) and Tyler Freeman (21) could be knocking on the door for big league jobs in spring training a year from now.

Could those be the spots they will be taking?

The pitching staff is similarly built with young arms like Shane Bieber (25), Aaron Civale (25), Zach Plesac (25), and Mike Clevinger (29).

And the bullpen could be anchored by young arms like James Karinchak (25), and Emmanuel Clase (22).

Don’t forget, some other arms are coming like Scott Moss (25), Cam Hill (26), and Kyle Nelson (24).

The Tribe farm system is ranking higher these days, mostly because of an influx of players who will (hopefully) play at the Class A level.

The front office’s plan has worked in terms of the getting younger part. Whether the talent level of the young players stays the same is still up for debate.

And while we wish they had been more proactive in using the money saved from the changeover, the moves needed to be done.

Let’s hope we will get an opportunity to see that this summer.

Simulated Tribe Off To Good Starts

These are different times we live in, particularly without the sport which symbolizes the beginning of spring and summer, baseball.

With no real games going on, we are curious each and every day to see what is going on in a couple of sites running simulated seasons. We understand it is not real, so readers should have no concern about our sanity.

The two simulated games we are following are at Baseball Reference.com, which uses Out of the Park Baseball 21, and the game we grew up with, Strat O Matic, which shows results online daily.

Both simulations have the Cleveland Indians off to good starts, perhaps because the early schedule would’ve had a lot of games with the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox, although the latter is supposed to be much improved this season.

Baseball Reference. This site has the Indians getting off to a 5-4 start through April 4th, a game and a half game behind the White Sox, who did sweep the Tribe in a three game set at Progressive Field earlier in the week.

The Indians have taken all five games from the Tigers thus far.

Franmil Reyes is off to a great start, going 11 for 30 with five home runs and eight runs batted in. Newcomer Cesar Hernandez is also doing well, tied for second on the team in RBIs with seven.

This game surprisingly has Greg Allen getting the bulk of the time in the outfield, going 8 for 28. Carlos Santana is 13 for 31, and Francisco Lindor is 12 for 38 with 4 HR.

On the negative side, Jose Ramirez is off to a slow start (4 for 35), as are Oscar Mercado (3 for 24) and Roberto Perez (5 for 29 with 14 strikeouts).

Pitching wise, Zach Plesac is 2-0 with 4.50 ERA, while Shane Bieber has a 3.00 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 15 innings.

The simulation does not include Mike Clevinger or Carlos Carrasco, instead rookie Scott Moss made the big club to open the season.

Also, Sandy Leon is not on the big league roster, and weirdly, John Axford is, apparently acquired in a trade with Toronto.

Strat O Matic Their simulation has the Indians off to a 8-1 start, a game ahead of the Royals, who started off 6-1. FYI, the Twins have started at 3-6 to date.

They have Jefry Rodriguez in the rotation, and the righty has been very good, going 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two starts. Zach Plesac is also 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 18 strikeouts.

Reyes has started hot in this simulation too, belting six dingers and knocking in 13 in the first eight games of the season.

Domingo Santana is batting .417 and Carlos Santana is at .375 with 7 doubles on the season.

They have Jose Ramirez at .303 through eight games, while Lindor is off to a slow start, batting just .211.

Brad Hand blew two saves in the Chicago series, but the Indians rallied to win both contests, one on a Reyes walk off shot in the bottom of the ninth.

They have used a platoon of Jake Bauers and Jordan Luplow in RF, with Delino DeShields getting a couple of starts in center.

This game also does not have Clevinger or Carrasco available, and Cam Hill made the Opening Day roster. In fact, they already had Terry Francona using a bullpen day in game #5, using Hunter Wood as the starter.

Without actual games, this is making the best of the situation. And happily, the Indians are off to a good start in both simulations.

Let’s hope we see some baseball on the field for real soon.

Stay safe and stay healthy.