Reviewing Cleveland’s Prospects From Five Years Ago

We believe that the basis for having a good organization in major league baseball is to have a very good player development program. Especially if you are a smaller market team.

Although we think every major league team could spend tons of money on players (after all, they are all millionaires or billionaires), many teams have a philosophy of not spending, a lot of them because the bang isn’t worth the buck.

For every Corey Seager or Marcus Semien from the newly crowned world champion Texas Rangers that works out, you have a Javier Baez or Jason Heyward.

However, in building a farm system, fans need to understand that the payoff rate for prospects is also not good.

We like to do this every winter, but let’s take a look at the Guardians’ farm system from 2018, five years ago. A system that ranked in the middle of the pack among major league teams, at #15.

Who has worked out, who hasn’t. Here is the list from Baseball America:

1). Francisco Mejia
2). Triston McKenzie
3). Bobby Bradley
4). Nolan Jones
5). Shane Bieber
6). Yu Chang
7). Willi Castro
8). Greg Allen
9). George Valera
10). Will Benson

In our books, there is one all-star type player from this list, and that’s Bieber, who won a Cy Young Award in the COVID shortened season of 2020. He’s 60-32 lifetime, made two all star appearances and thrown 200 innings twice. He has had injury issues in two of the last three seasons.

Although we think McKenzie is very good if he can stay healthy, and he was good in the second half of 2021 and in ’22 (11-11, 2.96 ERA), right now, there is concern over his elbow. But, if he can pitch, he’s a very good starting pitcher.

Mejia was the most highly regarded prospect, but we don’t think the organization felt he could be a full time catcher and traded him to San Diego for Brad Hand. In over 1000 big league at bats, he has a 678 OPS (.239/.284/.394). He never reached what was projected for him.

The book is still out on Jones and Benson, both of whom had very good seasons after being traded by Cleveland after the ’22 season. Jones had a 931 OPS for Colorado, but we worry about a strikeout rate that is over 30% in his time in the big leagues.

Benson had an 863 OPS with Cincinnati, but he fanned in 31.3% of his at bats. High strikeout rates don’t bode well for long term success in the majors.

Bradley, Chang, and Allen never found extended success in the majors, and although the latter two played in the bigs last season, neither are on 40 man rosters heading into the winter.

Castro was traded to Detroit, but had his best year with the Twins this season as kind of a super-utility player, playing six positions, and had a 750 OPS with 33 stolen bases.

What was funny to us was that we’ve been talking about Valera for so long. He had an 816 OPS between AA/AAA in 2022, but fell to 718 at Columbus last season, fighting a lot of injuries. He has pop and patience, but the batting average in his minor league career is just .242, but he gets on base 36.3% of the time.

So, out of the top ten, the successes are Bieber, McKenzie, Jones, Benson, and Castro, although the latter three should be re-evaluated at this time next year.

Valera is still a prospect, probably still top ten in the Cleveland system. The other four simply didn’t pan out.

Keep that in mind when you look at the list that will come out this winter.

Looking At The Tribe’s Catching

The Cleveland Indians’ best prospect, and quite frankly, one of baseball’s best prospects is catcher Francisco Mejia.

Because of his presence at Class AAA Columbus, it seems like every time either Yan Gomes or Roberto Perez have a few hitless games in a row, fans are yelling for Mejia to be called up and inserted into the lineup.

Those people do not understand what the Tribe organization values in a catcher, nor do they realize Gomes and Perez aren’t the offensive zeroes they are viewed as.

If you understand baseball at all, you would know the Indians value defense first behind the plate, and that includes pitch framing and handling one of the premier pitching staffs in the sport.

We feel Perez is the better player and should get a higher percentage of the playing time, but the way Terry Francona handles the duo keeps them fresh at a very physically taxing position.

Last season, Gomes had the higher OPS at 708 (Perez was 664), but the pair combined for 22 HR and 94 RBI, not bad for two guys who combined to hit under .230 combined.

We like Perez better because he has a better eye at the plate. Even though he strikes out a lot (71 Ks in 217 at bats), he also works counts better and walked 26 times, five less than Gomes, even though the latter had 135 more plate appearances.

Perez also guided Indians’ pitchers to a better ERA at 3.22, compared to Gomes’ 3.36, both excellent figures.

Both catchers are excellent against the running game, throwing out over 40% of the runners trying to steal against Cleveland pitchers.

Both are also very good in blocking pitches, as the duo had just 9 passed balls last season, and the team ranked second to Boston in the fewest number of wild pitches.

Watching Tribe games makes you appreciate Gomes and Perez when you see Cleveland baserunners advance on pitches in the dirt.

By the way, this season, Tribe catchers have combined for 3 HR and 6 RBI, and both hit game winning home runs this week.

Getting back to Mejia, quite frankly we do not want him to continue catching anyway. He’s not a big guy at 5’10” and 180 pounds, and most scouts feel his bat is elite. Why subject him to the wear and tear that the position takes on these guys.

Outside of his season at Lake County as a 19 year old, where he hit .243 with 9 homers, the lowest batting average the switch-hitter has had was .282 when he was 18 at Mahoning Valley.

He doesn’t strike out a lot, and the front office sees his value as a hitter, because they are investigating a position change for the youngster, who won’t turn 23 until after the season ends.

Even if they weren’t thinking about moving Mejia from behind the plate, the way the organization thinks about the spot would keep him in the minors. He’s not ready to handle a big league pitching staff, especially one as accomplished as the Tribe’s, just yet.

And don’t forget Eric Haase, just 25 years old, who emerged last year in Akron to hit 27 dingers. He’s also at Columbus this season.

The Indians don’t have a guy who is going to start behind the plate for the American League in the All Star Game, but they are very happy with the quality they have at the position.

As for Mejia, he could wind up joining with Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez to form a switch hitting middle of the order which would be the envy of baseball.

Could Be A Busy Winter For Tribe

The hot stove league has officially started in Major League Baseball with the GM Meetings this week, and the Winter Meetings taking place in a few weeks.

After the past few years when the 25 man roster was pretty much set in stone, the next few weeks could be filled with several moves for the Cleveland Indians.

It was not surprise that the Tribe offered free agent Carlos Santana the qualifying offer, nor was it a shock when he turned it down.

Many experts expect Santana to return to the Indians after seeing what offers are out there, but president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have plenty of questions to answer before the team reconvenes in Goodyear in February.

Santana is the key to Cleveland’s off-season in our opinion.

The team would probably be interested in a reunion with Jay Bruce if the market comes back down much like it did with Edwin Encarnacion a year ago. But they probably won’t go more than two or three years for the veteran outfielder.

And what to do with Jason Kipnis? If Santana returns, there doesn’t seem to be a fit for him, as Michael Brantley would play LF in that scenario. However, if Santana departs, Brantley would likely go to 1B, with Kipnis playing left field.

The Indians do have some trade assets, although we believe they aren’t interested in trading their top prospect C/3B Francisco Mejia, one of the top 10 prospects in all of the minor leagues, nor would they be anxious to move Triston McKenzie, one of the premier pitching prospects in baseball.

We would think the organization would want to keep Mejia and OF Greg Allen in AAA to start the season and get them more experience.

However, we could see players such as Erik Gonzalez, Yu-Cheng Chang, and Willi Castro, all shortstops by trade who would seem to be blocked here by the presence of Francisco Lindor.

We also don’t know how the organization feels about the future of 1B Bobby Bradley, whose power is unquestioned, but he has a lot of swing and miss in his style. Does the front office think he can be a viable big league hitter?

With reliever Bryan Shaw also likely to be elsewhere in ’18, who fills his role in the bullpen. It has been rumored that perhaps Danny Salazar moves to the bullpen with his electric stuff as a bridge between the starter and Andrew Miller and Cody Allen.

If not, no doubt the brass will be looking for another bullpen arm.

The rotation shouldn’t see changes, but if Salazar does go to the ‘pen, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Tribe look for a starter on the free agent market, probably toward spring training when the prices come down.

The Indians have a strong core with Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Miller, and Allen. Unless he fails with the bat, Bradley Zimmer probably has a lock on centerfield.

The rest of the spots are fluid and the front office has some choices that are currently on the roster, young players on the uptick, and perhaps adding more pieces in deals.

There could be plenty of new faces in spring training for the Indians, and many of those spots hinge on Santana’s decision.

The Mejia Question For Tribe.

The All Star break is over, and now the eyes of baseball shifts to the trading deadline at the end of this month.

And that leads to speculation about the Indians’ top prospects, catcher Francisco Mejia and pitcher Triston McKenzie.

Mejia gets even more scrutiny because of the offensive production on the catchers on the big league roster, Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez.

Gomes has an OPS of 680, and is hitting just .222 with a .315 on base percentage. Perez is even worse with a 517 OPS and his batting average is just .178. Combined, the two backstops have 6 HR and 36 RBI.

Mejia has all the look of a professional hitter. A switch-hitter, he is hitting .334 with 9 HR and 34 RBI at AA Akron, and has a 928 OPS. This following a season where he had a 50 game hitting streak, and combined at Class A Lynchburg and Akron, he hit .342 with 11 homers and 80 runs batted in.

He also doesn’t strike out, which is huge in today’s game where swinging and missing is plentiful. His high in whiffs is 78 in 446 at bats, and that was during his worst year in the minors, when he hit .243 at Lake County in 2015.

One thing we know, or should know, about the Tribe front office is they value defense, pitch framing, and handling a pitching staff the most from their catchers. If they can hit, that’s great, but they don’t seem to be in a hurry to replace Gomes or Perez behind the plate, because they do those other things very well.

Baseball Prospectus ranked Mejia as the third best prospect in the game, and said they would rank him first if they knew the Dominican native was going to remain behind the plate long term.

The reason for that is Mejia’s size, he’s 5’10” and weighs 180 pounds. By contrast, Gomes is 6’2″, 215, and Perez is 5’11”, but weighs 220 pounds.

Ivan Rodriguez, who will be inducted into Cooperstown later this month, was only 5’9″, but weighed 205 pounds, so Mejia can get a little bigger and be a catcher for a long time in the big leagues.

On the other hand, Mejia looks like the kind of hitter that is special, and do the Indians want that bat to be subject to the daily grind and pounding a catcher takes, and perhaps shorten his career.

Look at Joe Mauer, who is much bigger than Mejia, but was an elite hitter as a catcher, with an OPS over 800 nine times in his first ten full seasons, and a winner of three batting titles.

He was basically done as a premier hitter at age 30 in 2013.

Do the Indians want to subject Mejia to that pounding or perhaps move him to another position and keep a possibly elite bat in their lineup for a long time.

Obviously, the Tribe front office would rather not deal Mejia, but they may have to if they are making a deal like the one that brought them Andrew Miller last year. In fact, remember he was involved in the ill-fated deal with Milwaukee that Jonathan Lucroy vetoed.

By the end of the month, we will see if the Indians dodged a bullet with that move, or they don’t think Mejia can become the type of catcher they would be comfortable with defensively.

He is purported to have a great arm and gets out of his crouch quickly, so we would be talking about pitch framing and handling the hurlers.

When you understand what Cleveland wants from the position, you can understand why Mejia is not in the Indians’ plans for this season.

Is he is their plans long term? We will find out in a couple of weeks.

Tribe Won’t Do This, But We Would

The Cleveland Indians should be considered a conservative organization, although at times they do make some aggressive moves.

They may have cost themselves a playoff spot in 2015 with their stubbornness in leaving Francisco Lindor in the minor leagues until his service time would not be an issue.

They give some veterans every opportunity to succeed before replacing them with a possibly more productive young player. Think about the long rope vets like Michael Bourn and Juan Uribe received from the current regime.

That said, here are some things we would like to see the Indians do, even though we know it will never happen:

A change in position for Jason Kipnis. Kipnis was an outfielder in college and moved to second base when he was drafted. However, it is pretty clear to us that Kipnis is the third best defensive option at the position for the Tribe, behind Jose Ramirez and Erik Gonzalez.

The Indians leave outs on the field more than they should because of plays not made up the middle or double plays not turned.

We understand Kipnis is a key member of the team both on the field and in the clubhouse. The simplest thing would be to just flip flop Ramirez and Kipnis and move the latter to 3B.

In these days, where offense continues to put up numbers, outs are at a premium, you can’t give them away.

The Brantley Dilemma. Michael Brantley’s return to the everyday lineup is a boon for Terry Francona, with an OPS of over 800 on the season.

However, it is evident that his defense in left field has slipped greatly. Sunday night, a groundball single went for a double for Jose Iglesias because he couldn’t cut the ball off.

There have been other deep flyballs which haven’t been caught either throughout the season.

Where can Brantley go? Perhaps first base if Carlos Santana goes elsewhere via free agency after the season, but if Santana resigns, Francona may want to consider a defensive replacement in the late innings.

Swap Gomes and Perez. The Indians are blessed with two very good defensive catchers who can handle (frame) pitchers. And we understand Roberto Perez is hitting just .178 with a 517 OPS, compared to Gomes’ 680 OPS.

However, Gomes hasn’t really been an effective hitter since winning a Silver Slugger Award in 2014. And with men on base, Gomes becomes very impatient at the plate.

We would like to see what Perez would do offensively if he were given the bulk of the playing time. Our gut feeling is he would hit better.

We would just like to find out, because in a year or two it will be a moot point (hopefully) because of Francisco Mejia.

Keep Mejia/McKenzie. In order to make a big move at the trade deadline, the Indians will have to trade one of the studs in their farm system. We would love to not give up either because as a small to mid market team, it is important to keep players like them.

Besides, the Indians have other players that would be desirable to other teams. Gonzalez is good enough defensively to start for several major league teams, and we would consider moving Bobby Bradley because we fear he could be like Texas’ Joey Gallo.

And don’t forget Yu-Cheng Chang is another shortstop blocked by Frankie Lindor.

The Tribe has a lot of depth in the system, we know it might be a fantasy, but we would like to keep these two after moving Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield last season.