Improve Offense? Tribe Should Deal From Strength

The Cleveland Indians still have too many holes in their lineup for our liking. As the roster currently stands, they have three “for sure” very good offensive players.

Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are the studs. Lindor has finished in the top 15 in the American League MVP voting each of the last four seasons, and has had an OPS over 800 in four of the five years he has worn a Cleveland uniform.

Ramirez is working on a streak of four straight seasons with an OPS over 800, although many doubted he could get there in 2019 after his extremely slow start.

The other is Carlos Santana, who even if his average drops from the career high .281 last season, still has pop and can get on base so much as anybody in the game. He has a career .367 on base percentage.

There are some players who we expect will be solid, most notably Franmil Reyes, who will be just 24 next season, and should hit a ton of home runs, but can he draw more walks and cut down on strikeouts.

We would also hope for progression from Oscar Mercado, who will be 25 and should still be getting better.

There are a lot of ifs offensively with this group, and there will probably be a regression for Roberto Perez at the dish. Perez hit a career high 24 homers in 2019.

So, how do the Indians improve themselves offensively? Luckily they have depth in a category most of the major league teams are looking for, and that would be starting pitching.

With the return to good health for Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, the Cleveland front office has depth in this area.

Shane Bieber made the All Star team (won the game’s MVP) and finished 4th in the American League Cy Young Award voting. And Mike Clevinger went 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA in 21 starts after missing two months early in the season.

So, when Kluber and Carrasco are back, they really are the 3rd and 4th starters coming into 2020 with Clevinger and Bieber being the aces.

You can’t forget Aaron Civale, who had a 2.34 ERA in 10 starts late in the season, and had people reminded of a younger Kluber.

Of course, you need depth in the rotation to get through a 162 game season, especially when two of the starters are over 30 years old, and the Tribe has that too.

Zach Plesac (25 next year) made 21 starts and had a 3.81 ERA, allowing less hits than innings pitched and striking out twice as many batters as he walked. And Adam Plutko emerged as a serviceable fifth starter, making 20 starts.

And don’t forget Jefry Rodriguez, who made eight starts for the Indians a year ago, and southpaw Logan Allen, who came over in the three way trade at the deadline and was ranked as a top 100 prospect.

Triston McKenzie, another top 100 arm, is also now on the 40 man roster, although he missed all of last year with an injury.

So, the Indians can afford to move a starting pitcher to get some offense, and still have depth to sustain an injury or a performance not up to the expectations the organization would have.

And that might be a more palatable way to improve the hitting rather than spending big money on a free agent.

The best trades in baseball are always made from organizational depth. The Indians have what other teams want. It’s time to reap something they need for it.

Lindor and Tribe In A Unique Situation

Now that the hot stove league has started, you can’t watch or listen to shows about baseball without people talking about the Cleveland Indians trading all star shortstop Francisco Lindor.

We, of course, have stated many times that we would not be in favor of dealing the Indians’ face of the franchise, preferring to sign one of the best players in the game to a long term contract.

We were wondering how many other star players were traded at age 25 while being one of the best players in the game?

We did come up with a few, although most aren’t as good as the Indians shortstop, and we wanted to see what kind of return the player brought back. Mostly because most fans think the Indians would get three future all-stars in return.

The first case is Christian Yelich, who was dealt by Miami in 2017 after his year 25 season. Yelich hit .282 with an 807 OPS, and was signed through 2021 by the Marlins, so he differs from Lindor in that he wasn’t coming up on free agency.

The top prospect Miami received was Lewis Brinson, who was Baseball America’s 16th ranked prospect at the time. To date, Brinson has been a massive dud, with a career 531 OPS in around 700 at bats.

The best player Miami received right now has been pitcher Jordan Yamamoto, who was never a top 100 prospect. He was 4-5 with a 4.45 ERA in 15 starts last year.

Not a big return for a player who was MVP in the National League in 2018 and finished second last season.

Manny Machado was traded at age 25, but he was moved at the trade deadline before his winter of free agency, so it’s not a good comparison. His value was lowered because the team dealing for him was getting him for a half season.

The only player moved from the Dodgers to Baltimore in the deal that has reached the major leagues yet is Breyic Valera (47 at bats with Toronto). Valera has gone from Baltimore to San Francisco to New York to Toronto.

Andrelton Simmons was traded following his age 25 season after hitting .265 (660 OPS). He isn’t anywhere near the offensive player Lindor is, but in the deal sending him from Atlanta to Los Angeles (AL), the best player the Braves received thus far has been Sean Newcomb (22-21, 3.87 ERA), who pitched out of the bullpen for the NL East champs this season.

The reason it is very difficult to find comps to this situation is most teams aren’t looking to trade 25 year old superstars with two years left on their contract, they are looking to sign them long term.

It is a different situation if Lindor and his agent have told the front office they won’t sign with the Indians under any circumstances, but we don’t believe that is the case.

We wanted to point out, however, in reality, no team is going to empty out their farm system for Lindor, and if they do, there’s no guarantee that the top prospects will turn out to be very good to great major league players.

Recently, you had the Bryce Harper (went to free agency) and Machado situations. Yes, Washington won the World Series this season, but it wasn’t due to what they received for Harper.

And the Orioles appear to have received 20 cents on the dollar for Machado.

The Red Sox are said to be considering a Mookie Betts deal, but part of that is the luxury tax threshold and the other big contracts Boston has. If J.D. Martinez had opted out of his deal for 2020, Boston may not be looking to move Betts.

Yes, Lindor will become one of the highest paid players in the game. So be it. He’s one of the best players in the game.

It may be a long time before another team is in this situation again.

More On The Lindor Scenario…

It has already started.

Soon after the New York Yankees lost the American League Championship Series, a column in the New York Post advocated the Yankees should try and get Francisco Lindor from the Cleveland Indians.

A week later, it was reported the Los Angeles Dodgers have interest in the four time all star.

And all over northeast Ohio, it is becoming a weekly debate. Should the Tribe deal Lindor now, so his new team has him for two seasons, therefore giving up more for him, or should the Indians go into the season with their best player, and try to win the World Series in 2020?

The possibility of signing Lindor is not even considered, and we have debated that point enough over the past year. To summarize, that is ludicrous.

Most fans and media alike seem to think dealing Lindor for three or four “stud” minor league prospects would enable the Tribe to just keep on winning year in and year out.

Because, after all, no super prospect ever flames out once they reach the big league level, nor do they ever become just average major league players.

And the Washington Nationals just showed you can let your superstar player go and still win, right? That, of course, ignores the fact the Nats had Juan Soto up last year at 19 years old, and he is probably better than Bryce Harper, who signed with the Phillies.

We will let you in on another secret…Lindor is a better player than the much hyped and ballyhooed Harper. Although Harper won the NL MVP in 2015 at age 22, that’s his only top 10 finish.

Lindor has three top 10 finishes in the American League, and most rankings have Lindor in the top 10 of all major league players, while Harper falls in between 11 and 20.

It is difficult to believe that Frankie has only played four full seasons with the Indians, so if he is moved this winter, that’s all Cleveland fans get.

It makes you think about the odd decision to leave the shortstop in the minor leagues the first half of the ’15 season was a pretty terrible one, no?

Especially when you would deal him before his ages 27-29 seasons, the time when a player is truly in his prime. The Indians would not get the benefit of those years.

There is a reason that Sandy Alomar Jr., Jim Thome, and Omar Vizquel are still revered by Indians’ fans almost 20 years after they began the career here.

Alomar spent 11 seasons here (1990-2000), while Vizquel was here for the same amount of time (1994-2004), and although Thome had some cups of coffee here before the Indians became contenders, he was a regular from 1994 through 2002.

That’s why we always say (and feel) if Lindor can play here for 10 years, he will be considered the greatest everyday player in franchise history. And there should be value in that for the teams’ owners.

Now, if Lindor says he will not consider a long term deal here, then this is all moot. The Tribe should keep him this year and move him afterwards, unless they get players who can help this season.

They cannot take a step backwards and go into a rebuilding mode.

We do believe Lindor would like to stay, but he wants to be paid like one of the game’s best players. There shouldn’t be an issue with that, especially because a five year extension would keep him here through age 30, and he should still be putting up excellent numbers.

If the Indians can get three highly ranked prospects and they all reach their potential, that would be great, correct? However, what if the prospects turn out to be average or busts?

No one thinks about that possibility.

You Trade For Prospects When You Are Rebuilding. The Indians Aren’t.

In recent years, the sports talk shows in Cleveland spent a lot of time talking about the NFL Draft. It seems like folks like to talk about the possibility of getting players more than the players that actually play in northeast Ohio.

When it comes to the Cleveland Indians, it comes down to trading for prospects. Apparently, it’s better to deal for young players rather than sign the great players who are already here.

Yes, we are talking through a thin veil here about Francisco Lindor. There are many in the area who think the Indians are better off rebuilding a team that won 93 games last season, rather than trying to get over the hump and get back into the post-season.

Look, if the Tribe was 75-87 this past season and had a roster loaded with a bunch of 30 year olds, we might think the same thing.

But here is a list of the Indians’ leaders in WAR for 2019–

Shane Bieber (24 years old)
Lindor (25)
Carlos Santana (33)
Mike Clevinger (28)
Roberto Perez (30)
Jose Ramirez (26)

Does this look like a team on its last legs and ready to be rebuilt?

We also subscribe to the theory that until proven otherwise, prospects are suspects until proven otherwise. Now, that doesn’t mean we don’t appreciate top minor league talent, because we do.

In 2013, there were those in the media saying the Indians should deal Lindor to get help for Terry Francona’s first year here, and we gave the opinion that was ridiculous.

Still, dealing a player like Lindor is now, and he’s one of the best ten players in the sport, for prospects is dicey at best.

For example, here is a list of the Top Ten prospects in baseball in 2016, according to Baseball America:

Corey Seager
Byron Buxton
Yoan Moncada
Jose Urias
Lucas Giolito
JP Crawford
Alex Reyes
Orlando Arcia
Trea Turner
Joey Gallo

Of those ten, Seager and Turner are very good players, and Moncada looks to be on his way. Giolito had a great year in ’19, but struggled before that.

Reyes has been hurt a lot, and Gallo has always had immense power, and looked to be improving his game this past season before he was injured.

The other have been disappointments, and getting one of them back for a player like Lindor would be a swing and a miss.

The following year’s (2017) list contained Dansby Swanson, Reyes, Nick Senzel, Willy Adames, and Amed Rosario.

That year also featured Andrew Benintendi, Moncado, Gleyber Torres, Austin Meadows, and Cody Bellinger, any of which would be a solid return for a star player.

That’s still a 50/50 proposition.

And trading a great player for three above average players isn’t a good deal either, because if you have the former, you can likely find average guys to fill in those spots.

(Think Julio Franco for Pete O’Brien, Jerry Browne, and Oddibe McDowell for you older fans).

We are sure we will hear about how the Washington Nationals went to the World Series after Bryce Harper walked away in free agency. But the Nats had Juan Soto on the horizon to basically replace Harper.

Back in 2000, the Seattle Mariners lost Alex Rodriguez to free agency and won a Major League record 116 games the following year. Just like the Nationals without Harper.

Except the Mariners haven’t been back to the playoffs again.

Look, the Indians are going to do what they are going to do. However, we think it’s better to keep great players, which Frankie Lindor is.

And he’s here for two more years, and it would be a surprise if the Indians were not contenders in either of those years.

It’s not time for a rebuild, nor it is time to trade Francisco Lindor. And people shouldn’t assume the return will be three blue chip players.

Tribe Should Be Active In Hot Stove

Let’s make this very clear, the Cleveland Indians have never asked us for advise on running the team.

However, that doesn’t stop us from making suggestions on what they should be thinking about this winter.

Here is what we would do starting the day after the World Series ends so the Indians can return to the American League playoffs in 2020 as Central Division champions.

We agree with the decisions they’ve said they will make already. That means we would pick up the option on Corey Kluber and decline the options on Jason Kipnis and Dan Otero.

Yes, we know Kluber struggled in his seven starts in 2019, but as we just said, it’s seven starts. And there will be less burden on the two time Cy Young Award winner, with the emergence of Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber. If Kluber can provide 200 innings in ’20, he is well worth the $17.5 million the Tribe will pay him.

We would also decline to offer Danny Salazar and Cody Anderson arbitration and we would add one more name to that list in Kevin Plawecki. If we were Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff, we would look for an upgrade to back up Roberto Perez.

To replace Kipnis, we would look for a third baseman, either on the trade market or in free agency (most likely the former) and move Jose Ramirez to second base.

We think there will be some bargains available in free agency at one of those positions. A one year deal would be ideal because top prospect Nolan Jones is on the horizon, if he can cut down on his strikeouts.

We would also strongly suggest to Terry Francona to get Francisco Lindor out of the leadoff spot. Besides Jordan Luplow, Lindor had the highest slugging percentage on the team, clubbing 74 extra base hits, nine more than Carlos Santana.

Wouldn’t it be nice if some of those extra base knocks came with men on base? The shortstop bats at least once every game with no one on by leading off.

We know Francona likes Lindor to set a tone in that spot, but when the offense has fallen off like it did in ’19, it might be more efficient to put someone who gets on base consistently in the leadoff spot (Carlos Santana?) and move Lindor to the #2 or #3 spot.

Speaking of Lindor, the biggest thing the Indians front office should do is take care of his contract situation, and by that we mean open up the purse strings and sign him long term.

And as we have said before, we don’t buy for a minute the notion that the ownership can’t keep Lindor in a Cleveland uniform long term, nor do we think the Tribe can’t be competitive and pay the shortstop a boatload of money.

Somehow, they have to shore up leftfield, which was a sinkhole for much of 2019. We would recommend seeing if Jordan Luplow can man the spot. Luplow was lethal vs. southpaws (.439 OBP, .742 slugging), but in the minors, he handled right handers well.

He would get the first shot at the job, but we also would take a long look at Daniel Johnson in spring training.

The bullpen needs work too. In today’s game, you need more power arms, something the Indians lacked last season. James Karinchak is a start, but more are on the way, guys like Kyle Nelson and Cam Hill.

In terms of trade pieces, the rotation depth the Indians developed in ’19 could be key.

The projected starters right now would be Clevinger, Bieber, Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and for the sake of argument, let’s say Aaron Civale.

That leaves Zach Plesac, Adam Plutko, Jeffry Rodriguez, Logan Allen, and don’t forget Triston McKenzie as possible pieces to get some bats.

If you trade one of them, you still have a lot of depth.

Hopefully, the front office feels it is imperative to get back to the top of the heap in the AL Central. They need to get better against good teams and good pitchers.

Let’s see what happens in the hot stove season.

Tribe Report Cards: Everyday Players

The Cleveland Indians reign as American League Central Division champions ended after three straight seasons.

Yes, they won 93 games, and that’s very good, they did not make the post-season, so we cannot be happy about the year, and it definitely wasn’t a success, no matter how many injuries the club and Terry Francona had to endure.

We decided to put together a report card for the squad (not that they asked!). We didn’t grade the bit players, the guys who were called up in September (FYI–don’t think anyone would have received higher than a D), but we wanted to give our appraisal of the 2019 edition of the Cleveland Indians–

Players Who Gets A’s:

Carlos Santana: After missing a year signing with the Phillies as a free agent, the switch-hitter had a career year in ’19. He tied his career best in home runs, and had his highest RBI total and OPS.

He will be 34 next year, and normally, we would say he’s a candidate to be dealt, as his value with never be higher. But, Santana’s numbers improved because he changed his approach at the plate, using more of the field.

He may not hit 34 HR’s, but his ability to draw walks make him a good offensive player if he hits around .260 with 25 dingers.

Roberto Perez: Despite all the complaints about dealing Yan Gomes (see the comments about Santana), Perez took his first opportunity as a regular and ran with it, belting 24 homers with a 7754 OPS.

He should win a Gold Glove for his defensive prowess and his ability to handle what turned out to be a very young pitching staff cannot be overlooked.

Players With A “B” Grade:

Francisco Lindor: Lindor is a superstar, but his season was below the tremendous standards he has set for himself. He missed the first month of the year with calf and ankle issues, but his walk rate was the lowest since his rookie year and his struggles in the clutch seemed to be from being overanxious.

At 25 years old, we feel safe in thinking it’s a blip on the radar.

Oscar Mercado: The rookie was a spring training sensation and probably should have made the club to open the season. He had a 761 OPS, which should improve because he’s only 24 years old, and his walk rate should get better as he gains experience.

Jose Ramirez: The switch-hitter struggled badly in the first half and was red hot after the All Star break. Still, even when he wasn’t hitting, he drew enough walks, and wound up with an 806 OPS. He even came back early from a hamate bone injury and hit a pair of homers in his first game back.

Yasiel Puig: Puig was expected to give the club a power burst, but instead was an on-base machine with an OBP of .377. All in all, not what the front office expected, but still helped the attack.

Franmil Reyes: The big man struggled mightily after coming over from San Diego, but also fell short of expectations, hitting just .237 albeit with 10 HRs. He needs to figure out the strike zone to fully blossom.

Jordan Luplow: Acquired from the Pirates, he was a tremendous asset vs. lefties. We would like to see him get an opportunity to get an everyday job next spring.

The “C” Group:

Tyler Naquin: Maybe he’s a bit too low here, but has problems staying healthy. Good arm, and if you hit him at the bottom of the order, he’s an asset.

Mike Freeman: Did a solid job as the primary infield back up, but when he had to play more, wasn’t as effective.

Greg Allen: A disappointment to us. Thought he earned a regular job in spring training, but doesn’t walk, and didn’t hit enough.

Kevin Plawecki: Did a serviceable job, but we don’t think he did enough for Francona and his staff to have confidence in him. That’s why Perez carried such a heavy load and got tired in August.

We’ll give Jason Kipnis and Jake Bauers a C-. Kipnis is way too inconsistent at the plate, prone to lengthy “0 for” streaks.

We liked Bauers’ approach early, patient, hit lefties well, but as the year went on, he struck out way too much. Doesn’t walk enough, not enough power.

We will grade the pitchers next week.

Offense Failed Tribe Down The Stretch.

It’s all over.

The Cleveland Indians’ hope for a post-season spot came to a crashing halt Friday night in Washington.

Following the home finale a week ago, the Tribe was tied with Tampa Bay for the second spot with six games to play. But after an 11-0 win in the first game in Chicago, highlighted by Jose Ramirez’ return to the lineup with two home runs, the offense snoozed and the pitching showed wear and tear in two disappointing losses, 8-3 and 8-0.

Another game of giving up eight runs eliminated Terry Francona’s squad, this one 8-2 to the Nationals. So, coming into the week, we felt the Indians could only lose one game, and they lost three straight.

We have compared the Tribe season to a basketball team that was down 20 in the first half and had to fight back to came it a game, only to have nothing left to win the game.

After Cleveland took a half game lead in the AL Central on August 12th by beating Boston on a Carlos Santana homer, thus erasing the 11.5 game bulge Minnesota had on June 2nd, the Tribe went 21-21 over the next quarter of a season, and that was simply not good enough.

Injuries didn’t help, that for sure. But the Indians got back into the race without Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, but losing Jose Ramirez at the end of August was a blow to the offense, one that added Franmil Reyes and Yasiel Puig at the end of July.

And it was the offense that failed Cleveland. The Indians finished ninth in the AL in runs scored after finishing third a year ago, while the pitching staff ranked third in ERA, one of only three teams in the Junior Circuit to have a team ERA under 4.00 (Tampa and Houston).

What happened to the offense? The simple view is the Indians probably only got better performances from the first base position (Carlos Santana vs. Yonder Alonso), catcher, and at centerfield.

Jose Ramirez didn’t produce in the first half, and Francisco Lindor had the lowest walk rate since his rookie year, and it showed in his numbers with men in scoring position. The all-star shortstop was very impatient in clutch situations, helping opposing pitchers by swinging at bad pitches.

The big deadline trade brought Reyes and Puig, but the former had an OPS about 60 points lower with Cleveland (785) than in San Diego (849), and the latter hit just two home runs with the Tribe, none of them at Progressive Field, at least as an Indian.

Puig did get on base a lot though, which is a good thing, just maybe not for your cleanup hitter. His slugging percentage was behind that of Oscar Mercado and Roberto Perez.

So, the offense still wasn’t up to that of the best teams in the AL. Again, you need to score runs to make the playoffs, and Houston, New York, Minnesota, and Oakland all finished in the top five in runs in the American League.

Depending on what happens today, the Indians could be sixth, just ahead of Tampa, but Cleveland doesn’t have the relentless lineups (read: no weak spots) that those other teams do.

The Tribe has just two hitters with an on base percentage over .350 and slugging percentage over .450. They are Carlos Santana and Jordan Luplow, who doesn’t play vs. right handers.

Houston has eight, the Yankees six. Those lineup make you work. The Indians need to get some of those guys if they want to get back in the mix in 2020.

The lack of consistent hitting hurt the Tribe. Averaging 5 runs per game is good, but not if it’s done by scoring 10 one night and getting shutout the next.

Tito And The Young Players

To start, Terry Francona is a great manager, and will likely go into the Hall of Fame when he retires as the skipper of the Cleveland Indians.

He’s piloted two World Series winners, won three American League pennants, and currently ranks 18th all time in wins, and has a real possibility of getting into the top 15 if not higher before he retires.

And he has guided the Indians through a myriad of tough situations, most notably in the 2016 post-season when the team lost Carlos Carrasco to injury, and he used a starting rotation of Corey Kluber, Josh Tomlin, and Trevor Bauer (who really missed one start with a lacerated pinky) to get to the seventh game of the World Series.

There is certainly no one else we would like to have managing the Cleveland Indians.

His day to day approach resonates with the players. When injuries occur, and the Tribe has had many to deal with this season, including ones to star players like Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Kluber, and Carrasco, Francona stresses that the team should go about the business of winning the game played that day.

After all, that’s all you can do.

But we also say that doesn’t make the skipper infallible. He makes mistakes. He will go the extra mile for a veteran player who has performed for him in the past. And sometimes he crosses the line between stubbornness and patience, particularly with vets.

That gets frustrating in the race for a post-season spot, at least for the fans, that is.

It’s not like the manager has a lot of alternatives with the likes of Ramirez and Kipnis out of the lineup. Each night, Francona has to come up with someone who can play second base and third base, and he has to use the bullpen too, and that has become problematic recently with Brad Hand being unavailable.

However, we would take issue with not looking at a possible upside of young players, even if this is a pennant race.

Everyone should know what Ryan Flaherty is at this point. He’s a utility man, primarily at third or second base, and he can’t hit. He has a .215 lifetime batting average, and he’s been around the league.

Why not use Yu Chang instead? First, he plays Flaherty vs. right handers, and Chang is actually had more success vs. righties (9 for 39 with a HR). The only assumption anyone can make is Francona has more confidence in the veteran.

A veteran he should know is not going to contribute with the bat.

The same in the bullpen with rookie James Karinchak, who seems to strikeout everyone who steps in the batter’s box.

Wednesday night, the skipper brought in Nick Goody, who has spent the last month either walking people or giving up home runs, to face a pair of Tiger hitters in the ninth inning of a tie game.

That’s the ultimate sign of trust.

Goody got the two batters out, but Francona left himself open to big time questioning had the reliever given up the game winning hit.

Karinchak has pitched in two games, faced ten hitters and struck five of them out.

He used Tyler Clippard, arguably the Tribe’s best reliever in the last month, last night with a 7-0 lead against the worst team in baseball, when guys like Phil Maton, Dan Otero, and Jeffry Rodriguez haven’t pitched in over a week.

We feel fans have a right to ask questions and so should the media.

In most cases, we know what the veteran is going to do. Why not take a chance with the young player. He likely cannot do any worse.

How Tribe Can Keep Lindor And Still Win

We have maintained for awhile now that the Cleveland Indians should most definitely get a long term contract done with Francisco Lindor, and the money shouldn’t be an object.

We understand it will take a major financial commitment to keep the All Star shortstop, with the Tribe having to pay him over $30 million per year.

One of the arguments we hear against this is teams can’t devote a large percentage of their payroll to one player and remain competitive, particularly if they are not a large market franchise.

We feel there are exceptions to every “rule”, and Lindor should be that exception.

Besides, it can done if your front office is smart, and you continue to develop your farm system.

Two contracts are always brought up in this regard.

The first is Joey Votto’s 10-year, $225 million deal with the Reds, signed in 2013. Votto was entering his 29-year-old season that year, and has given Cincinnati five very good to excellent years to this point, although at 35, he is showing signs of age this year.

Cincinnati hasn’t been over .500 since ’13, but that is hardly Votto’s fault.

You could make a very good and valid point, that the problem was the organization having a $50 million commitment to 32-year-old Brandon Phillips, and giving $56 million to Homer Bailey, who was injured and terrible over the next five seasons.

Those are mistakes you cannot mistake if you want to win.

Their farm system has ranked between 11th and 14th (MinorLeagueBall.com ranking) since the contract was signed, and the only young position player making an impact was catcher Devon Mesoraco. All the other regulars were 26-32.

Their top prospect was Billy Hamilton, who flamed out, but by 2016, they added Eugenio Suarez (from the Tigers in a trade) and Tucker Barnhart. And they didn’t add a solid pitching prospect until they added Luis Castillo in a deal with the Marlins in 2017.

Another example pointed out is look at the Angels with Mike Trout, who has unfortunately made the post-season once in his eight years with Los Angeles.

Of course, the Angels have the Albert Pujols albatross contract, but they’ve made some questionable big money signings too.

They paid Ricky Nolasco $12 million for the two seasons, and in 2018, gave Zack Cozart, who had one good season in his career, a three year, $38 million deal.

If you are going to pay a superstar big money, you can’t pay mediocre players substantial bucks, or it does hamstring your franchise.

The Angels’ farm system is on the rise, thanks to Jo Adell, but they ranked between 28th and 30th from 2015 to 2017, before moving up to 20th last season.

As for the Indians, the farm system has ranked 21st in 2015, then 13th in ’16, 10th in ’17, and 15th last season. By most accounts, following the deadline deal which brought Logan Allen, along with the development of players in the low minors, Cleveland has a top ten system.

This is important because it keeps bringing low cost talent on to the big league roster. And if those players can make a solid contribution, like Aaron Civale and Oscar Mercado, it allows you to keep a high priced player like Lindor.

As for not getting involved with bad contracts, Jason Kipnis’ deal is over after this season (Cleveland will not pick up the option), and Corey Kluber’s and Carlos Santana’s end after 2021.

The only “star” player who will be eligible for arbitration by then is Mike Clevinger.

This gives the Indians plenty of payroll flexibility providing they don’t go out and overspend on a young player or potential free agent. History says they will not do that, they have proven to be very smart is this regard.

But you can’t ignore player development and this includes trading solid prospects for borderline players in a pennant race.

The blueprint is there to keep Lindor and still be a competitive franchise while paying him big money. It’s not impossible, you just have to be very prudent.

Many Seasons Within A Season For The Tribe.

It is difficult to believe the major league baseball season is 2/3rds over, but it is.

And for the Cleveland Indians, it has kind of been several seasons wrapped into one, and the last third of the 2019 season will probably look like a different one as well.

Here is how the Tribe has stacked up breaking down the campaign so far into 27 game (1/6th of the season) segments:

First 27 games: 15-12
Games 28-54: 12-15
Games 55-81: 17-10
Games 82-108: 19-8

It is clear that Terry Francona’s club has gotten better as the season has progressed, and there is no doubt the roster is very much different than it was on Opening Day in Minnesota.

The beginning of the year had Francona playing Eric Stamets, who was recently designated for assignment, at shortstop with Francisco Lindor injured. Mike Clevinger made two starts and pulled a muscle in his shoulder/back. Leonys Martin was in centerfield, and by the end of that stretch, Carlos Gonzalez was getting everyday playing time.

Thankfully, Carlos Santana started strong and provided pretty much the only hot hitting the Indians had.

On May 1st, Corey Kluber, a 20 game winner last season, suffered a broken arm when hit with a line drive.

The 54th game of the season (May 28th) was the beginning of the turn around. Trailing 5-2 in the ninth at Boston, facing a fourth straight loss, and their eighth loss in nine games, the Indians rallied for five runs in the ninth. A Greg Allen two run homer tied it, and Jordan Luplow’s double provided the difference in the contest.

Since then, the Indians are 36-18.

Jose Ramirez had two hits that night and started showing signs of emerging from his slump, which started in mid August 2018.

Oscar Mercado was called up earlier in May, and was working his way into the everyday starting lineup. Roberto Perez hit his 7th homer to lead off the ninth. He has belted 12 more since that day.

Still, Cleveland lost three of four in Chicago after leaving Boston. Then, Carlos Carrasco couldn’t make a start in the second game of a series at home against the front-running Twins because of illness.

The Indians unified behind the pitcher and started winning ballgames. And a lot of them.

Yes, the schedule was soft, many games against the lower echelon teams in the American League (Tigers, Royals, Orioles, and Blue Jays), but the Tribe did win the series against Minnesota and followed that with the same against the Yankees.

They also won three of four against Cincinnati.

Tyler Naquin and Jordan Luplow have formed a solid platoon in the outfield, Jason Kipnis showed life at the plate and Ramirez got hot, giving the Indians a passable offense.

Clevinger returned, Shane Bieber emerged and made the All Star Game (where he was MVP) and they teamed with Trevor Bauer to make a solid “Big Three”.

At the trading deadline, the Indians transformed from a pitching based team to a formidable offense when they traded Bauer in a three team deal and received Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes.

Suddenly, the Tribe has a solid batting order.

The last third of the season will provide the answer to several questions:

Will the production of the lineup match the potential?

Will the Indians have enough starting pitching with the trade of Bauer?

Can Ramirez’ recent revival at the plate continue?

Will the bullpen hold up, and will reinforcements from the farm system be coming soon?

If these questions are answered positively, a fourth consecutive division title can be achieved. And the rare rebuild while contending may just have been pulled off.