Simulated Tribe Off To Good Starts

These are different times we live in, particularly without the sport which symbolizes the beginning of spring and summer, baseball.

With no real games going on, we are curious each and every day to see what is going on in a couple of sites running simulated seasons.  We understand it is not real, so readers should have no concern about our sanity.

The two simulated games we are following are at Baseball Reference.com, which uses Out of the Park Baseball 21, and the game we grew up with, Strat O Matic, which shows results online daily.

Both simulations have the Cleveland Indians off to good starts, perhaps because the early schedule would’ve had a lot of games with the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox, although the latter is supposed to be much improved this season.

Baseball Reference.  This site has the Indians getting off to a 5-4 start through April 4th, a game and a half game behind the White Sox, who did sweep the Tribe in a three game set at Progressive Field earlier in the week.

The Indians have taken all five games from the Tigers thus far.

Franmil Reyes is off to a great start, going 11 for 30 with five home runs and eight runs batted in.  Newcomer Cesar Hernandez is also doing well, tied for second on the team in RBIs with seven.

This game surprisingly has Greg Allen getting the bulk of the time in the outfield, going 8 for 28.  Carlos Santana is 13 for 31, and Francisco Lindor is 12 for 38 with 4 HR.

On the negative side, Jose Ramirez is off to a slow start (4 for 35), as are Oscar Mercado (3 for 24) and Roberto Perez (5 for 29 with 14 strikeouts).

Pitching wise, Zach Plesac is 2-0 with 4.50 ERA, while Shane Bieber has a 3.00 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 15 innings.

The simulation does not include Mike Clevinger or Carlos Carrasco, instead rookie Scott Moss made the big club to open the season.

Also, Sandy Leon is not on the big league roster, and weirdly, John Axford is, apparently acquired in a trade with Toronto.

Strat O Matic  Their simulation has the Indians off to a 8-1 start, a game ahead of the Royals, who started off 6-1.  FYI, the Twins have started at 3-6 to date.

They have Jefry Rodriguez in the rotation, and the righty has been very good, going 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two starts.  Zach Plesac is also 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 18 strikeouts.

Reyes has started hot in this simulation too, belting six dingers and knocking in 13 in the first eight games of the season.

Domingo Santana is batting .417 and Carlos Santana is at .375 with 7 doubles on the season.

They have Jose Ramirez at .303 through eight games, while Lindor is off to a slow start, batting just .211.

Brad Hand blew two saves in the Chicago series, but the Indians rallied to win both contests, one on a Reyes walk off shot in the bottom of the ninth.

They have used a platoon of Jake Bauers and Jordan Luplow in RF, with Delino DeShields getting a couple of starts in center.

This game also does not have Clevinger or Carrasco available, and Cam Hill made the Opening Day roster.  In fact, they already had Terry Francona using a bullpen day in game #5, using Hunter Wood as the starter.

Without actual games, this is making the best of the situation.  And happily, the Indians are off to a good start in both simulations.

Let’s hope we see some baseball on the field for real soon.

Stay safe and stay healthy.

 

What Lindor Could Be If Tribe Kept Him

While much has been written about Francisco Lindor and the willingness or feasibility of the Cleveland Indians signing him to a long term contract, we would like to look at the historical aspect of the Tribe’s shortstop in terms of statistics.

Our thought is if Lindor would play in Cleveland for 10 years, he would be considered the greatest position player in franchise history.

Let’s examine in terms of the numbers, saying the Indians and Lindor can come to an agreement to keep him here for five more years, although that seems to be a long shot.

Lindor has played with the Indians for five seasons already, although his first season consisted of only 99 games.

If he played an average of 150 games over the next five seasons, that would put him at 1467 games, just short of 10th place all time (Omar Vizquel played in 1478).

Doubling his current hit total of 835 (giving him 1670), would rank him 7th of the Tribe’s all-time list just behind Lou Boudreau’s 1706.

If we do the same thing with his other numbers, which probably isn’t fair to Lindor considering he is just 26 and entering the prime of his career, here is where he falls on Cleveland’s all time record list.

He would have 356 doubles, which would rank 6th in club history, again behind Boudreau’s 367.  He would have 2866 total bases, 3rd all time behind Earl Averill and Tris Speaker.

His 260 home runs would rank #2 in team history, just behind Jim Thome’s 337, and his 768 RBI would put him 9th all time between Larry Doby and Albert Belle.

We probably aren’t being fair with the RBI stat because Lindor has spent much of the last two seasons hitting leadoff, and he may wind up hitting lower in the order, perhaps as early as this season.

He would have 956 runs scored, putting him 4th, in between Kenny Lofton and Charlie Jamieson, behind only Lofton, probably the greatest leadoff hitter in Indians’ history, and Hall of Famers Averill and Speaker.

Lindor’s stolen base total would be 7th, although if he hits lower in the order, our guess is he would be running less often.

From the advanced metrics standpoint, Lindor has accumulated a 28.6 WAR in his first five seasons, so doubling that would be 57.2, ranking him 4th behind a trio of Hall of Fame players in Nap Lajoie, Speaker, and Boudreau.

That total includes last year’s 4.7 WAR, the lowest since his rookie season.  In 2018, the shortstop put up a 7.9 WAR.  So, although he probably can’t catch Lajoie and Speaker, passing Boudreau is doable.

Again, we are probably figuring on the low side for Lindor based on the reduced games played in his rookie year, and that he still hasn’t reached his prime years.

However, at even this pace, we are talking about a Hall of Fame talent, provided he stays healthy, and if not the best Cleveland player ever, he’s in the top five.

So, when people say the management can’t or shouldn’t sign the shortstop long term, you are going to miss years of one of the greatest players ever to wear a uniform here.

Wouldn’t it have been nice to watch Kenny Lofton or Jim Thome here for his whole career.  To us, it’s galling we have to share Thome’s legacy with Philadelphia or Chicago.

The Cleveland front office should take that sort of thing into consideration, and so should the fan base.

MW

Early Good, Bad, And Ugly For Tribe.

We realize that it is very early in the exhibition game schedule, they’ve been playing games for a week now, but it is never too early to examine some of the results to this point.

For proven veterans, spring training statistics shouldn’t really be examined.  For example, if Francisco Lindor was hitting .182 in the middle of March, no one should be alarmed.  He’s a known commodity, but for young players and guys who fighting for the last two or three spots on the 26 man roster, it’s worth taking a look at.

Remember that a good three hit day, or a hot week can change everything, and so can an 0 for 15 stretch with 10 strikeouts.

That said, here are the good, the bad, and the ugly after a week of games in the desert.

The Good.  Any concerns about Franmil Reyes’ loss of weight should be going away.  The big man has started 6 for 13, with two homers and just one strikeout.  Lindor and Jose Ramirez are a combined 11 for 23 with four doubles and a home run.

Bobby Bradley, a longshot to make it, has done what he needs to do.  The left-handed slugger is 5 for 11 and has struck out just once.

Oscar Mercado is 3 for 10 and has two walks, an area where he needs to improve if he wants to hit at the top of the order, and another longshot, Ka’ai Tom is 5 for 12, but has struck out three times.

James Karinchak has been filthy so far, fanning four in his first two innings, although he struggled with his control a bit yesterday.

The Bad.  When you are battling for the 25th or 26th spot on the roster, you can’t afford to have a bad start, so Greg Allen starting off 1 for 10 isn’t helping his cause.  As they say, you only have one chance to make a first impression.

Yu Chang is 5 for 15, but contact issues have been a problem, striking out six times already.

Dominic Leone, who has some big league experience with Seattle, Arizona, and St. Louis, has a chance to come north particularly after the injury to Emmanuel Clase.  Unfortunately, he’s given up 11 hits, including a home run in three innings, struggling in all of his outings.

It may be tough to overcome that.

The Ugly.  Losing Clase for perhaps 8-12 weeks with an upper back strain has been the toughest news from camp.  He was the biggest acquisition in the Corey Kluber deal, and people will excited to see he and Karinchak in the bullpen.  Now, it could be May or June before he is back.

And opens up another bullpen spot.

Losing Mike Clevinger doesn’t help either.  Clevinger was in the mix as the Opening Day starter, but will probably miss the first three or four weeks of the season with a torn meniscus.

With this injury and minor setbacks for Carlos Carrasco and Aaron Civale, who knows who will start the first five games of the season for the Indians.

Again, it’s very early.  But the injuries are a concern, and the players off to bad starts need to start turning it around if they want to be in uniform against the Tigers on March 26th.

 

 

Tribe Needs To Play Nice With Fan Base

There are many conflicts in sports that occur outside of the playing area.  Sometimes there is a difference in philosophies between the coach and a general manager.

Other times it is between players in the locker room, or a particular team and an officiating crew.  We hear about them all the time.

In Cleveland, we (of course) have a different type of sports butting of the heads.  It’s between the Cleveland Indians organization and their fan base.

The other night, Paul Dolan and his family were being honored with the lifetime achievement award at the Greater Cleveland Sports Awards, and the owner chose his acceptance speech to show off his lack of comedy prowess.

He referred to his “enjoy him” comment made last spring about Francisco Lindor, who can be a free agent following the 2021 season.  With Tribe fans in fear of watching the superstar walk away or be traded before the end of next season, the attempt at humor was ill-advised to say the least.

The Dolan family are reported to be very nice people.  We only say reported because we have never met them, but they certainly do plenty of charity work within the community, and they also take a very “hands off” approach in regard to running the Indians.

And that’s a good thing too.

On the other hand, they seem to antagonize their fans all the time.

Before saying the line about Lindor, Dolan went out of his way to thank the fans, particularly those who buy suites.  While those fans are important, there are more people who sit in the actual seats at Progressive Field than sit in “luxury boxes”.

And the ownership does refer to attendance issues a lot.  They don’t seem to realize the fans don’t have to come to the games, they need to be persuaded to buy tickets.

We didn’t come up with this analogy, but the attitude is the same as a restaurant owner who says he will serve subpar food until a lot of patrons start walking through the door, and then he will serve good food.

Cutting the payroll by around $30 million during the midst of a string of 90 win seasons isn’t exactly making fans reach into their pockets to spend some hard earned money either.

The Tribe won the division with 91 victories in 2018, and the players’ salaries were trimmed.  They won 93 last season, and it appears the money spent on the folks on the field will be reduced again.

The rationale both times is a drop in attendance, which dipped from 2.05 million in ’17, the year after an American League championship, to 1.93 million in ’18 and then to 1.74 million in 2019.

We hate to say it, but it is on the front office to repair the damage, and the sooner the better.

Let’s be clear.  We aren’t saying to be crazy and spend a ton of cash on mediocre players, that’s not smart.

But they could lower ticket prices, give fans deals to show up to the games held in the colder weather of April. Get people in Progressive Field.  The motivation should be getting more people to buy food and drink at premium prices.

The television ratings show their is great interest in the Indians, but people seem to not go to Progressive Field.  The front office should find out why, and do something different to get fans downtown.

What they are currently doing isn’t working, but there doesn’t seem to be any willingness to adapt.

Fighting the fans isn’t a battle the Indians’ front office is going to win.  Instead, embrace your fans, make them part of the team.

And stopping saying things that cause the ticket buyers to question your ownership.

MW

Is The Tribe Still A Contender? You Bet!

Anyone who thinks the Minnesota Twins are going to sit on their laurels after winning the American Central Division in 2019 will probably be sadly mistaken.

The Twins seem determined to defend their title after signing one of the best free agents available in former MVP Josh Donaldson, ranked 5th best on MLBTradeRumors.com.

Minnesota scored the second most runs in the American League a year ago, and they just added another superior hitter to their lineup.

The Chicago White Sox have been very active in the free agent market this off-season, most notably signing Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion, and southpaw Dallas Keuchel, leading many to believe it will be a three team race in the AL Central.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians have signed 2B Cesar Hernandez.

If you look at offense, the Twins scored 170 more runs than the Indians, and the Tribe scored 61 more than the Pale Hose.  Even adding Grandal and Encarnacion, that’s a tough number to catch.

While it seems unreachable for the Indians to catch up to Minnesota in runs scored, one path to closing the gap would be a complete season by Jose Ramirez, and a better season from Francisco Lindor.

Ramirez wound up with a solid season in ’19 (.255, 23 HR, 83 RBI, 806 OPS), but compared to his 2017 and 2018 campaigns (957 OPS in ’17 and 939 in ’18) it pales.  A return to those previous two years (he is only 27) would greatly improve the Cleveland attack.

On the other hand, the Indians can’t expect the same season out of 34-year-old Carlos Santana, who had the best season of the year (911 OPS).  By the same token, Minnesota’s best hitter, Nelson Cruz, will be 39 in 2020.

Chicago’s free agent hitters are 32 (Grandal) and 37 years old (Encarnacion), so neither should be expected to do better than a year ago.  Where the Sox should gain is with three young, impact bats in Yoan Moncada (25), Eloy Jimenez (23), and Luis Robert (22).

The Indians’ edge is in the pitching department, allowing almost .6 runs per game less than the Twins, and 1.11 less than Chicago.

Certainly, the continued development of Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac will be key to maintaining that edge, as well as a retooled bullpen.

It would seem the Indians still have the best pitching in the division.  Minnesota replaced Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez with Homer Bailey and Rich Hill, and the White Sox figure to be better, but lowering by more than a full run?

Based on run differential, the difference between the Indians and Twins was only four games, Minnesota had the profile of a team winning 97 games (they won 101), while Cleveland should have won 93 contests, which they did.

So, the gap isn’t as large as you think it is.

The White Sox won 69 games, so even with a roster upgrade and the further development of some very good looking young players, that’s still an awful big number to make up.

We would think the White Sox will still be a factor in the race, but not quite ready to compete with the Twins and Indians.

That’s why the Indians should still be looking to add a bat, particularly an outfielder.  They shouldn’t be thinking the way to go is unproven hitters like Greg Allen, Delino DeShields, Bradley Zimmer, and Daniel Johnson.

The Cleveland pitching gives it a solid chance to return to the post-season in 2020.

MW

 

Time For Tribe To Upgrade Roster & Payroll.

Sometimes it seems like the Cleveland Indians can’t get out of their own way.

They have been one of the American League’s best teams in the past 10 years, winning three AL Central titles and making four playoff appearances since Terry Francona became manager in 2013.

Since the wild card era began in 1994, coincidentally aligned with the opening of Jacobs (now Progressive) Field, the only two AL teams with more post-season berths are the league’s behemoths, the Yankees and Red Sox.

Despite all this success in the last quarter century, there isn’t a buzz around the franchise.  The current Tribe has two of the game’s most exciting and best players in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, and fans seem ambivalent.

Not a mention a Hall of Fame manager.

The front office needs to seize the day with this current roster.  Besides the duo we just mentioned, the Indians have one of the best starting rotations in baseball, even after dealing two time Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber.

However, the Indians’ ownership continues to cut the amount of money allocated for payroll.  This despite winning 93 games last season.

No, they didn’t make the playoffs, but in many seasons, that victory total gets you a chance to play in October.

We have said many times, Cleveland cannot live in the same payroll neighborhood as Boston and New York.  And we aren’t asking them to do so.

In 2018, the Indians’ payroll was $134 million, the highest ever.  And yes, we know minority owner John Sherman was involved at that point.

Right now, according to Baseball Reference Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the current 26 man roster payroll in a little under $92 million, that’s a drop of $42 million from two years ago.

And that includes yesterday’s arbitration settlements, meaning Lindor’s $17 million salary for 2020 is included in that number.

Playing devil’s advocate, let’s say the $134 million isn’t sustainable for the Dolan family.  Last year, the Tribe’s payroll was slightly under $120 million, according to the same site.

No doubt the Indians will make some minor signings before spring training arrives, so the actual number for 2020 will be around $100 million unless a trade or big ticket free agent signing is yet to come.

This will mean another $20 million will be lopped off the payroll from last season, $34 million has been eliminated over the past two seasons.

That certainly doesn’t indicate to the ticket buying public a commitment to winning a championship, and it absolutely doesn’t get fans in a mode to come out to Progressive Field this season.

As an aside, the schedule maker didn’t help Cleveland either with 16 home games in April, where it will be rare a game time temperature will reach 60 degrees.

It is without a doubt a “chicken or the egg” scenario.

Ownership would like better attendance, and fans want a reason to buy tickets.

Last season, Philadelphia season ticket sales increased by 7% when they signed Bryce Harper.  Now, we know the Indians can’t do this (especially with Lindor on the cusp of free agency), but why not do something that creates some excitement around this group of players.

Here’s hoping Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff still have one more move up their sleeves before spring training to add a piece (not trade Lindor).  They should have some money available.

Perhaps they were waiting for the potential arbitration cases to be settled.

Cleveland sports fans deserve some excitement, especially something not associated with a Browns’ coaching search.

There’s a window of opportunity for the Indians, time to go for it.

MW

It’s Time To Move Lindor…Out Of The Leadoff Spot

The Cleveland Indians need to find a new home for Francisco Lindor.

No, we are not talking about trading the four time All-Star shortstop, who is one of the best players in the game.  Rather, we are suggesting skipper Terry Francona find a new spot in the batting order for Lindor, a move that would help the Tribe score more runs.

Francona likes Lindor leading off because he “sets the tone” for the team, and we understand that line of thinking.  But everyone knows the shortstop is the team’s leader, it’s unofficial captain, so why not bat him in a spot the benefits the club more?

First, the job of the leadoff man is to get on base.  Lindor’s .335 on base percentage last season is nothing special.  His lifetime figure is .347, good but not optimal for a guy hitting first.

Cesar Hernandez, recently signed by the Indians to play second base, has a career .352 OBP.  Kenny Lofton, the great leadoff man for Cleveland in the 90’s, had a .375 mark during his time in northeast Ohio.

However, our biggest reason to drop Lindor in the order is his slugging percentage, which at .518 led the Indians.  It is odd to us that the Tribe’s best on base guy, Carlos Santana, batted in the #3 or #4 hole all season, while the player with the best slugging percentage led off virtually every game.

Lindor’s walk rate of 7% was his lowest since his rookie season figure of 6.2%.  In 2018, he had his best rate at 9.4%.

We understand in today’s game, the slugging percentage leader on a team doesn’t hit in the #4 hole, and we aren’t asking for the manager to hit Lindor there.  You want him getting more plate appearances than most players.

Still, wouldn’t you want your best power hitter batting with men on base?  With Lindor leading off, you are guaranteeing that once a game he comes up with no one on.  That doesn’t seem optimal.

For us, if you went an two seasons (’18 and ’19) with Lindor hitting first, wouldn’t it be more prudent to have Carlos Santana there?

Santana got on base almost 40% of the time (.397 OBP) last season, and has a career on base percentage of .367.  And his slugging percentage was virtually the same (.515) as Lindor’s .518 mark.

One of Cleveland biggest problems offensively was getting on base, they ranked 8th in the American League in on base average, dropping from 3rd in 2018.

That’s why getting Hernandez was a solid move, his lifetime mark in that category was 48 points more than the man he replaced in Jason Kipnis.

The Indians had only one player, Santana, among the regulars (Yasiel Puig isn’t counted because he played only two months here, but had a .377 OBP) that got on base more than 35% of the time.

By contrast, Houston, New York, and Boston all had five, and Minnesota had three.  That’s a pretty telling statistic.

Jose Ramirez topped the .350 mark in 2016, 2017, and 2018, so if he’s very capable of getting on base at a high rate, but that’s why we’d be looking in that direction if the Indians are looking for another outfielder.

It’s also why we keep coming back to Puig.

We would move Lindor to the #2 or #3 position in the batting order, and would hit Ramirez or Santana (or both) ahead of him.

It might just be a good way to kick start the Indians’ attack.

MW

Looking At Tribe OF Options

The Cleveland Indians’ infield looks to be settled with the signing of 2B Cesar Hernandez as a free agent.

Barring a deal involving SS Francisco Lindor, the Tribe will feature four switch-hitters in the infield with Carlos Santana at first, Hernandez and Lindor manning the keystone, and Jose Ramirez at third.

We also know Roberto Perez will be the primary catcher.

However, what about the outfield?

We know Oscar Mercado will go into spring training as the starting centerfielder, and Jordan Luplow will be somewhere out there vs. left-handed pitchers (at least).

And occasionally, Franmil Reyes will play right field.

There seems to be plenty of playing time available in the outfield and designated hitter spots.

Left-handed hitter Corey Dickerson, who had the highest slugging percentage on the market outside of Josh Donaldson, agreed to terms with the Marlins yesterday.  We thought Dickerson would have been a good fit in Cleveland, at the very least forming a lethal platoon with Luplow.

The veteran has an 866 OPS vs. righties (.533 slugging) for his career.  Last season, he had a 942 OPS against RHP.

A logical move would be to bring Yasiel Puig back as a free agent.  The 29-year-old had an 800 OPS (.377 on base) after coming over from Cincinnati at the trade deadline, and overall has a career OPS of 823.

Other options, probably more costly though, would be Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna.

Both right-handed hitters, Castellanos will play at 28 years old next season, and has had OPS over 800 in each of the last four seasons.  Defensively, his best spot is probably DH, he is not known for his defense.

Ozuna has declined defensively as well since his days in Miami, but he has a career OPS of 784, but he has had just two seasons with a season over 800, last year right at that figure, and his career season of 2017, when he hit .312 with 37 HR and 124 RBI.

We look outside the organization because quite frankly, the internal options aren’t very appealing.

Tyler Naquin would be a solid platoon piece in the OF, but he will likely miss half the season with a torn ACL.

That leaves a combination of Delino DeShields, Greg Allen, Jake Bauers, and Bradley Zimmer to cover what amounts to one and a half spots in the outfield.

Here are the career OPS for that group:

DeShields  668
Allen          644
Bauers       691
Zimmer     652

We would like to see Luplow get a chance at a full time job in ’20.  His minor league splits don’t shout platoon player, and he was so good vs. lefties, he deserves a chance at regular playing time.

The Indians also have 24-year-old left-handed hitter Daniel Johnson, who hit .290 with 19 HR and 77 RBI (868 OPS) and Akron and Columbus last season.  He also doesn’t have a large platoon split.

But as with the four players listed above, it would be a huge leap of faith for a contending team to give a starting job to someone who hasn’t spent a full season at the AAA level.

Remember, last April and May, when the Indians were experimenting at a few spots due to injury and struggled mightily?  They can’t do that again.

They have money freed up from the Corey Kluber deal, and they need to get an established outfielder, which will lengthen their lineup.

That’s what a team that won 90+ games in 2019 should be doing.  However, the market the Cleveland Indians are playing in may dry up quick.

MW

 

The Reason To Keep Frankie

The Cleveland Indians were in the news this week, but not for anything the front office would be happy about.

Mostly, the news involved what to do with their star shortstop, Francisco Lindor.

Lindor isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2021 season, meaning he can play with the Tribe for two more full seasons with Indians just having to pay what he gets in arbitration, likely around $16-17 million this year and depending what kind of season he has, over $20 million in ’21.

At that point, Lindor could walk away from the franchise, with the Indians just getting draft pick compensation.

Many feel the Indians should move now because a deal involving the star shortstop would allow a possible trading partner two full seasons on Lindor, thus they would be willing to give up more to the Tribe.

However, we believe the best course of action for the Indians is to keep Lindor for two more years and see how everything plays out.

Here are our reasons:

  1.  Winning.  Cleveland’s win totals over the last four seasons are 93, 91, 102, and 94.  They are most definitely a threat to reach the post-season in 2020 and 2021.  Why give away that chance, which leads us to…

2.   Return From A Trade.  Most likely, a deal for Lindor will bring back an established           major leaguer who won’t be as good as Lindor along with some top prospects, who             probably won’t be very good players (if they ever become very good) for a few                     years.  Trading your best player weakens the team in the short run.

3.  Youth Is Still On Tribe’s Side.  The Indians are a reletively young team.  In their               current projected starting lineup, only catcher Roberto Perez and 1B/DH Carlos                   Santana are over 30 years old, and Lindor (26) and Jose Ramirez (27) are entering               the prime of their careers, meaning their best years should be coming very soon.

4.  Pitching.  The Tribe still has plenty of it.  Even with the trade of Corey Kluber, the               rotation is still headed by Mike Clevinger (29), Shane Bieber (25), Carlos Carrasco              (33), and a pair of 25-year-olds in Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to round it out.  The          bullpen could be very tough in late innings with Brad Hand, and newcomer                          Emmanuel Clase and rookie James Karinchak.  No reason to waste it.

With the Kluber deal, the Indians can still pay Lindor what he gets in arbitration this season, and improve the offense with the money saved in the Kluber trade, and still be at a comfort level in terms of payroll.

Plus, a lot of things can change in two years.

First, the basic agreement expires after 2021, and who knows, maybe the owners get a “franchise tag” in the next round of collective bargaining.  Also, with the news that came out about John Sherman when we bought the Royals, it appears the Dolan family is at least thinking about selling the franchise.

And don’t forget the Indians local television deal ends after 2022, so another influx of cash could present itself to ownership.

Our point is simply this, don’t force yourself into a false deadline.  Sometimes the best course of action is to let things play out.

All sorts of things can happen in two years.  Heck, the Indians might even win a World Series.  And that has a better chance of happening with Francisco Lindor wearing a Cleveland uniform.

MW

 

Tribe Needs They Should Be Looking To Fill.

With baseball’s Winter Meetings now concluded, and Francisco Lindor still on the Cleveland Indians’ roster, we can now focus on the holes the Tribe still has on its roster right now.

The Indians’ offense was slightly below league average at 4.75 runs per game (the AL norm was 4.88), so that’s a good place to start.  Especially when you consider the pitching staff was third in ERA and one of only four American League teams under 4.00 (Tampa, Houston, and Oakland).

The offense needs to get better.  Right now, Terry Francona has three solid hitters in his lineup:  Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Carlos Santana.  Franmil Reyes should be able to provide power (and lots of it), but he also strikes out a ton and needs to get on base a little more.

Oscar Mercado showed signs of being a good player (761 OPS), but he’s another young player who needs (and should develop) more patience at the plate.

And Jordan Luplow was a terror vs. southpaws in 2019 (1181 OPS), but his minor league numbers don’t indicate he should be strictly a platoon player in the big leagues.  We would like to see him get an opportunity to play everyday.

However, the latter two players are somewhat gambles, and a team that figures to be in contention in 2020 has to minimize the “ifs” on the roster.

What has to be addressed before spring training?:

2B/3B:  Jason Kipnis is a free agent, and let’s face it, hasn’t been the same since 2016, and Ramirez has told the front office he will play either spot, he just wants to stay put.  So, president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have to fill this spot, and the internal options aren’t very promising.

They could give the spot to Yu Chang, who had a 560 OPS in a limited role late in the season, but his minor league numbers aren’t exciting either, .251 career batting average, 762 OPS.

They also have Christian Arroyo, a former top 100 prospect who was acquired from Tampa at the deadline last season, but he has been injured much of the last three seasons, and has a 622 OPS in 70 big league games.

We would be looking for another alternative.

OF:  We mentioned Mercado and Luplow earlier, and the plan is to use Reyes some in rightfield, but no doubt, he will be more of a DH, so there are a lot of at bats to fill in LF and RF.

With Yasiel Puig a free agent, the candidates include Greg Allen (644 career OPS), Jake Bauers (691), Bradley Zimmer (652), and Daniel Johnson, who batted .290 with an 868 OPS at Columbus and Akron a year ago.

We would think the brass would like another proven bat to patrol the outfield.

Bullpen:  Last season, Francona and pitching coach Carl Willis patched through the season with Brad Hand and some twine and rubber bands to put together a solid relief corps.

Fans also got a look at strikeout artist, rookie James Karinchak, who whiffed everyone in the minors, and then eight big league hitters in 5-1/3 innings.

No doubt, the Indians need more power arms at the back of their bullpen, to bridge the gap from an outstanding starting rotation to Hand, and also to not overuse their closer, which is what happened a year ago.

The Indians have some starting pitching depth to fill some of these holes.  And while a few of the young players are promising, a contending team has to have fall back options.

That’s what Antonetti, Chernoff, and his crew should be working on between now and when the 2020 Tribe gets together in Goodyear, Arizona.

MW