Looking Toward ’16 During Last Six Weeks

The Cleveland Indians are currently holding auditions for the 2016 season, all able-bodied players in their system should have a chance to state their case to be on next year’s Opening Day roster during the last six weeks of the season.

If the Tribe were putting an ad in the sports pages, that is what it would probably look like.

You would have to think that among the everyday players, only Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes are for sures to be here next April. Although, Francisco Lindor is making a pretty good case for himself as well.

However, with players who do not have a track record should be required to earn their spot. So, if Lindor came to Goodyear not in the best shape, or he hits .150 in the exhibition games, it’s not a guarantee that he makes the squad.

Our guess is that Carlos Santana will be moved elsewhere because the Tribe doesn’t want to pay him $8 million next year for the production they have received. And we believe Mike Aviles and Ryan Raburn will be free agents after the 2015 campaign.

Chris Johnson will likely be back because of his $9 million deal for 2016, but that’s a tradeable deal so that is not etched in stone.

Giovanny Urshela has been impressive defensively, but we aren’t sure he will hit enough to play everyday. And if Jose Ramirez continues to hit like he has since his call up, Terry Francona will have to find a spot for him, unless, of course, GM Chris Antonetti uses him to bring back a legitimate bat.

So, the tryouts are really at the following positions: 1B, 3B, CF, RF, DH.

Even if Lonnie Chisenhall hits well down the stretch, the front office cannot be fooled by that. Chisenhall was tremendous in the first half last season, but hasn’t done much since.

Fans will get a good look at players like Jerry Sands and Abraham Almonte in August, and many at bats will be given to guys like Tyler Holt, Jesus Aguilar, James Ramsey, and Zack Walters in September.

Can Sands be the Tribe’s version of J.D. Martinez?

Can Holt and Aguilar contribute if given steady playing time, something they haven’t received in any of their big league stints?

Can Almonte and Ramsey at least be steady enough to hold down the fort until Bradley Zimmer arrives in Cleveland?

Can Walters ever make contact?

There is no doubt Antonetti will need to find some veterans to fill in at the beginning of the year, but those players should be given one or two-year deals, at mid-range dollars.

The team’s foray into the big time free agent market should be over.

Most all-star type players don’t hit the market until they are past 30 years old, so what you are buying is the player’s declining years. Even Los Angeles’ Albert Pujols isn’t the same player he was in St. Louis, and the Angels will want to get out of that deal soon.

If we were the brass, we would start working on a 10 year deal with Lindor, so he will be here through age 31. We will that strongly about his talent, and because of his unproven talent, it would not cost the franchise $200 million to do it.

Think of the deal Evan Longoria signed in Tampa during his first year with the Rays.

So the positions that are open will need to be filled with either youngsters or whatever return you get in dealing Santana and/or Ramirez, and/or some pitching.

Even if the Tribe doesn’t want to move a starter, they have some bullpen depth, and should really open next year with at least three new faces in the relief corps.

And yes, we would consider moving Cody Allen for the right price. As former GM John Hart once said, closers grow on trees.

The organization cannot be fooled by any success the Tribe has over the last six weeks. They have several spots to fill before the 2016 season begins.

As we said before…let the auditions start.

The Only Consistent Thing About Tribe at Halfway Point…

For a team as inconsistent as the Cleveland Indians are, it is fitting that their record at the halfway point of the season is right around the .500 mark, although slightly below at 38-43.

And they start the second half of the year against the same team and pitcher they opened the regular season against, with Houston pitching Dallas Keuchel tonight.

Terry Francona’s squad went 12-15 over the last 27 games (1/6th of the season), down from the 16-11 in the second sixth of the season.

The first 27 games was a disaster at 10-17.

Such is the fate of the up-and-down Tribe, who can’t get anything going this season, and probably won’t be able to as long as the roster is made up of the same group of players.

The trip that just ended was a microcosm of the Cleveland season.

They looked horrible against Baltimore, getting shutout in the last two games, a doubleheader, which ended a sweep of the series by the birds.

Then, they visited Tampa, with the Rays owning a share of the top spot in the AL East, and took four straight from Tampa, the first three with their starting pitchers flirting with no-hitters.

They won the first game in Pittsburgh, then reverted back to their anemic offense, losing 1-0 on Saturday, and getting a paltry five hits on Sunday in a 5-3 loss, although the NL’s winningest pitcher, Gerrit Cole, was on the hill for the Bucs.

The best thing about the Indians’ season to date has been the jumbled nature of the American League, where no team is more than 6-1/2 games out of the second wild card spot.

On the other hand, the Tribe has the 10th best record in the AL, meaning there are more teams ahead of them than behind.

This clumping reduces the number of teams that will be sellers at the trade deadline at the end of the month, so it will be difficult for GM Chris Antonetti to make a move to improve the roster.

Unless, however, they do it from within, which has been our contention all along.

There isn’t a blockbuster trade out there, and really, we don’t want the Indians to give up their core position players (Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Yan Gomes, Francisco Lindor) in any deal.

Nor do we want to deal the young, controllable starting pitchers either.

What should be done is more incremental moves, even subtle ones, that make the team better.

Cleveland did just that over the last 30 days by bringing up Giovanny Urshela to play third base and Lindor to play shortstop.

The defensive matrix says Lonnie Chisenhall did a solid job on defense this season, but at the very least, we can say Urshela is as good with the glove (our opinion is he is better), but he is hitting better (Urshela’s OPS is 651 compared to Chisenhall’s 585).

And the rookie has shown consistency, with a 13 game hitting streak just ending yesterday.

Lindor has struggled at the dish, as expected, but he is still performing better than Jose Ramirez did (Lindor’s OPS is slightly higher), and the defensive statistics say he is already the Tribe’s best glove man.

Which brings us to our favorite whipping post, Michael Bourn.

Let’s say the Indians replace Bourn with Tyler Holt, and Holt hits .265 with an OPS of 700, which is slightly below average in the AL. That batting average would be 25 points higher than the veteran’s, and the OPS figure would be more than 100 points better.

Think the Indians would be a little better then?

We understand the contract status of Bourn, but right now, you are paying him to hurt the ballclub, and you don’t have to.

Yes, yes, we know he had a decent weekend against the Pirates, but that’s what we talk about in terms of consistency.

He had two good games. He may go 0 for 12 this week against the Astros and A’s.

Can the Indians make a run? Of course, but it will take a significant run of good play to do it, something they were unable to piece together in the first 81 games.

Tribe Can’t Improve With Current Cast.

After getting swept in a day-night doubleheader by the Baltimore Orioles yesterday, and being shutout in both contests, the Cleveland Indians seems to have reached rock bottom.

They sit 12 games behind the Kansas City Royals in the American League Central Division, and are now 7 behind the New York Yankees for the second wild card spot in the league.

That wild card spot would mean the one game crap shoot to get into a best-of-five series, so the division title should be the goal, but at this point, you’ll take the one game playoff.

Right now, the Tribe is a mess.

They can’t score runs, they have dropped to 11th in the AL in runs per game, and the vaunted pitching staff also ranks 11th in ERA. The defense is poor, so poor in fact that using defensive metrics, Francisco Lindor is by far the team’s best defensive player on the season, and he’s been in the big leagues all of two weeks.

Cleveland has players who can get on base, they just can’t drive them in, having a woeful batting average with runners on base.

We agree that there is still plenty of time left in the season, but based on the performance of the team for the first half of the season, the guys currently on the roster aren’t capable of getting it done.

The time is now for bold moves with this roster.

Michael Bourn’s production has declined to the point where he can no longer play for this team even in a platoon role.

The Tribe has a 26-year-old OF who can play CF at Columbus, and is hitting .306 with a 764 OPS. He’s actually been with the Indians last year and has three at bats with the big club this year.

Why Tyler Holt isn’t on this roster right now is a complete mystery.

And he plays with an edge, something even veterans Jason Kipnis and Brandon Moss have said is lacking with the Indians right now.

What should be done with Bourn? Well, we would release him.

Yes, yes, we understand the Indians owe him $14 million for 2016, and another $6.75 million for the rest of this season, but what’s done is done. They will owe him no matter what he does, and right now they are paying him to not produce.

Why aren’t we complaining about Nick Swisher? Because he’s on the disabled list, so he’s not hurting the squad right now. If Swisher is activated and produces the same as he did before he went on the DL, then he should get the same fate.

It’s not fair for the rest of the roster to play shorthanded because the organization’s high-priced signings didn’t work out.

We’ve had people asking to wait and see if Bourn can be traded, but by the time that happens, even the slim hopes of a playoff spot the Indians have now will be extinguished.

The starting pitching is showing the strain of non-support from the offense and the woes of an ineffective bullpen.

The four starters who have been here all year have ERAs under 4.16, which isn’t terrible, but isn’t great either.

However, the relief corps has been inconsistent.

Cody Allen has been fine since a rough April, and Bryan Shaw has done the same.

Zack McAllister’s been fine, but seems to give up big hits at the most inopportune times. Marc Rzepczynski has been prone to the same thing lately, such as Friday night, when he entered in a tie game and promptly gave up three straight hits on three consecutive pitches.

Over the last 14 days, Nick Hagadone has pitched 1-2/3 innings and allowed five hits. Over the last 28 days, he’s gone 6-2/3 frames, allowing nine hits. Take out last season, and he’s never had an ERA under 4.09 in his career.

Ryan Webb’s numbers look good (24 IP, 20 H, 8 BB, 18 Ks), but he doesn’t pitch often enough to evaluate him fully.

The other bullpen spots, usually two (for some ridiculous reason at the expense of an extra position player), have been revolving doors with the since released Scott Atchison, Austin Adams, Jeff Manship, and Kyle Crockett holding down the spot.

It might be time to change some roles up there as well.

Regardless, action is needed. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be a strength of the front office.

The season is slipping away. Maybe the administration could throw Tito and the boys a rope.

Looking Forward to Hot Stove Season, Hopefully So is Tribe Front Office.

The hot stove season in baseball will start in about a week, as soon as the World Series between the Giants and Royals concludes.

As we have mentioned previously, the Indians’ front office should be inspired by Kansas City’s success because in reality the difference between the Tribe and the new American League champions isn’t that great, although the Royals’ payroll is higher than Cleveland’s.

Right now, the Indians are stuck in the middle in both offense and defense, ranking 7th in the league in runs scored and 6th in the AL in ERA. If you parley that with a defense that ranks among the worst in baseball, and it is clear that standing pat in not an option for GM Chris Antonetti.

The good thing is outside of catching the baseball, the Tribe doesn’t need a massive improvement in any one area, but it is clear they have to do something.

The defense was better toward the end of the year when Jose Ramirez came up to play shortstop, but the field is littered with subpar defenders. In the infield, both Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis are below average defenders and the Tribe could use an upgrade in rightfield too.

Keep in mind, the team’s best prospect, Francisco Lindor is considered an excellent defender and at third base, another prospect who likely will move into the organization’s top ten, 3B Giovanny Urshela, is considered a good glove too.

Due to the Indians’ normal way of thinking, neither is expected to open the season in Cleveland, so help will have to come from other areas.

There have been some interesting ideas of what the Tribe could do this off-season, but our favorite was mentioned last Sunday in the The Plain Dealer by Paul Hoynes, who said it would not be impossible for Antonetti to deal CF Michael Bourn, if the Indians were willing to pay some of his large contract for 2015, something we have advocated for awhile.

That would open up CF for Ramirez and that move would allow Lindor to take over at SS. Ramirez is still very young (22), and has played a little outfield in the minor leagues, and putting him in the middle of the diamond, where he is used to being, should help any transition go rather smoothly. And because of his age, he should be getting better offensively as opposed to Bourn, who seems to be in a decline phase at the plate, and on the base paths.

It would also be helpful to add a productive right-handed hitter to go with Yan Gomes. The current roster is very susceptible to left-handed pitching and they can’t count on Ryan Raburn hitting like he did in 2013. Looking at his numbers from the last three years, that season looks out-of-place.

On the mound, Antonetti can’t count on the same starting pitching he received in August and September to occur the entire season, because there aren’t a lot of extended track records among Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer, and T.J. House. They simply have to go out and get another arm for the rotation.

How do they accomplish this? They either have to be willing to deal some minor league prospects (not Lindor) and also spend a little money, or at least re-allocate the funds they are currently spending. However, they can’t just add a David Murphy type over the winter and call it a day.

Hopefully, it should be a fun winter for Tribe fans, but based on the history of this front office, they will stick to their usual plan of wishing and hoping.

Things That Wouldn’t Surprise Us About The Tribe

The Cleveland Indians are hanging on by their fingernails at a possible post-season berth. They sit five games out of the second wild card berth, and our opinion is you have to be within five on Labor Day to be a real contender.

And in doing nothing at the trade deadline to add a significant piece to the current roster, it appears the front office is starting to look forward to the 2015 season, as the Indians are currently the second youngest active 25 man roster in the major leagues.

So, even though we haven’t officially given up on this season, we have started contemplating what will happen with the 2015 edition of the Cleveland Indians.

It wouldn’t surprise us if:

Jason Kipnis moved to third base. The Tribe brass has hinted they would like to see a keystone combination of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez because of the defensive upgrade it would provide. If that happens, then Kipnis would have to find a new position.

Logically, Kipnis would move back to LF, his college position, but Cleveland’s best player, Michael Brantley, is in that spot. So, we wouldn’t be surprised if GM Chris Antonetti either traded Lonnie Chisenhall or moved him to another spot (RF?) and put Kipnis at the hot corner.

We understand about the defensive movement of players seeming to have an adverse effect on the ’14 Tribe, but if this is done early enough, the players involved could come to spring training playing their new positions and be ready for Opening Day.

Nick Swisher bounced back. It is no secret that the Indians’ big free agent acquisitions before the 2013 season haven’t worked out, but of the two players (Michael Bourn being the other), Swisher is a better bet for a comeback in our view.

First, it is likely Swisher will be a DH, keeping his ailing knees away for the pounding of defensive play.

Second, Swisher’s 2014 season is an anomaly. Although, he didn’t drive in a lot of run last year, he still banged out 22 HRs, on par with his career numbers.

On the other side, Bourn’s numbers seem to be in steady decline. He’s never been a great offensive player, but his stolen base numbers continue to drop and he’s not an effective leadoff man anyway because of his low on base percentage. If he can’t steal bases any more, then he should be hitting at the bottom of the order.

We aren’t saying Swisher is going to hit .280 with 30 homers, but he could hit in the .250 range with a lot of walks and 20+ dingers. That wouldn’t be bad.

Terry Francona decides he’s done. This is a long shot to be sure, but Tito’s had problems with his legs over the years, and there seems to be a little disconnect between himself and the front office, which is the reason he came here in the first place.

While it appears Francona has slipped into the veteran manager’s viewpoint of trusting only veterans, that seems to be in conflict with the front office’s desire to give opportunities to players like Tyler Holt and Ramirez.

Perhaps it is the other way around and it is Francona who would like to play the youngsters, but his continued play of Chris Dickerson says otherwise.

Again, we believe this is a long shot to happen, but we wouldn’t be surprised if it did.

In another week, when the rosters can expand to 40 players, we may start to get an idea of what the 2015 Cleveland Indians will look like. We could see Lindor arrive along with Jesus Aguilar and maybe 3B Giovanny Urshela and of course, a boatload of bullpen arms.

Here’s hoping the current players can put that off by getting on a hot streak over the next week.

Disconnect Between Tribe and Fans Grows

The Cleveland Indians’ organization just doesn’t get it.

They don’t get the ever growing disconnect between the front office and the fan base.

Yes, the current team is flawed, they are a .500 team with over two-thirds of the schedule in the books. On the other hand, there are plenty of teams in the same boat, so as this is written they somehow are just four games out of a post-season berth.

They continue to operate under the premise that was stated by the current ownership many years ago, that is they will spend money when people start showing up to Progressive Field.

Compare that to the buzz surrounding the Cavaliers, who likely will put a title contender on display at Quicken Loans Arena, and the Browns, who drafted the most talked about rookie in the NFL last May.

They are shiny pieces, attractive to the eye. The Indians are like a gray sweater. They simply just don’t, or perhaps don’t know how to make a splash with the area’s baseball fans.

They made two good baseball decisions this week, trading two players who will be free agents this fall, and who weren’t producing as expected for the club either. They picked up two young players who may help the Tribe in the next couple of years instead of letting them leave for nothing.

Still, the fans expected them to take a shot at making the post-season for the second consecutive year, a feat not accomplished by the current ownership or management team.

Instead, they claimed they couldn’t or weren’t willing to get a deal done.

Team president Mark Shapiro, GM Chris Antonetti and the Dolan family are good people, well liked by the media in northeastern Ohio. Therefore, there wasn’t really much of an outrage when other teams around the Indians in the standings made move to improve their teams while the Tribe didn’t.

There seems to be an agreement between Shapiro and Antonetti and the ownership that the executives won’t bring up the lack of cash available and the Dolans won’t hold them accountable for the lack of success.

We even heard a member of the media floating the ridiculous contention by the organization that Tampa Bay wanted Danny Salazar, Carlos Santana, and Francisco Lindor for former Cy Young Award winner David Price.

Really? What did Tigers’ president Dave Dombrowski do, hypnotize Rays’ GM Andrew Friedman to convince to accept just Drew Smyly, Nick Franklin, and an 18-year-old prospect?

The fact of the matter is, there haven’t been enough results by this regime since the turn of the century. Just three playoff spots, the first done with holdovers from the division and pennant winners of the mid-90’s, and one of those a one game wild card game.

To be fair, the Indians would have made the playoffs as the wild card under the old rules.

You have to go for it when you have the chance. Now, we aren’t advocating dealing Lindor, who may just be the sport’s premier prospect, for a play who would spend a half season, or even a year and a half in a Cleveland uniform.

However, the Tribe does have middle infield prospects and power bullpen arms that could’ve been used to fill a weakness.

We have said it before, they didn’t need to get Price or Jon Lester, they just needed to get someone better than Justin Masterson, T.J. House, Josh Tomlin and Zack McAllister.

Instead they picked up another middle infielder, who likely will be moved elsewhere and has shown no strike zone judgment in the minor leagues, and yet another left-handed bat in an organization already top heavy from that side of the plate.

After making the post-season and winning 92 games a year ago, a way to bring fans back to the ballpark would have been to make the playoffs again. Show them that last year was no fluke.

It could happen, but it isn’t likely when you have two shaky starters, and that’s crossing your fingers on Salazar, who has been solid since returning to the majors.

It appears the only team Antonetti improved at the deadline was the Columbus Clippers. Somehow, the front office doesn’t understand the disappointment of its fan base.

Tribe’s Substractions OK, But No Additions Have Us Saying “Huh?”

The Cleveland Indians made two deals before the trading deadline, and we have no problem with either of them.

We do have a problem with the trade or trades that they didn’t make.

Dealing Justin Masterson, who was suffering through a terrible season and can’t put together two solid seasons in row is fine here. He’s a free agent at the end of the season, and the Tribe wasn’t going to make the qualifying offer, so to get a solid prospect in James Ramsey, a top ten guy in a solid farm system like the Cardinals, is a good move.

Moving SS Asdrubal Cabrera, a player who has declined at the plate and in the field, and is also a free agent at the end of the year also makes sense.

The player coming back from Washington, INF Zach Walters, is a switch-hitting power hitter who strikes out a lot. He’s listed as a shortstop, but with Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Erik Gonzalez in the system, his future is likely at third.

Power hitters are worth a gamble, and again, the Tribe wasn’t going to keep Cabrera anyway, why not take a look at someone with a little pop in his bat.

The problem is GM Chris Antonetti didn’t address the problem areas on his squad, even though the Indians sit just five games out of a playoff spot.

They didn’t address their pitching problems.

Now, we understand the Indians didn’t have the prospects to go out and get a Jon Lester or David Price, and though it would be nice to do that, they really didn’t need to.

They needed to get someone better than Zack McAllister, Josh Tomlin, or T. J. House, and they failed in doing that.

The Twins traded Sam Fuld, SAM FULD!, to get Tommy Milone out of Oakland. Milone is a better pitcher than any of the three players we mentioned. But he won’t be coming to Cleveland.

Currently, the Indians are in a race for the second wild card spot, or at least on paper they are, even though the front office obviously doesn’t think so.

Three of the other four teams in the race, the Mariners, Yankees, Royals, made moves to strengthen their teams. The Indians chose to sit this one out.

Antonetti needed to go out and get someone to bolster his pitching staff, and he failed. Again.

That’s the profile of this organization. They rarely go out and make a bold move, either in the off-season or at the trading deadline. We guess based on that we shouldn’t be all that disappointed.

However, the Indians seem mystified that the fans in Cleveland aren’t drawn to them. It’s because of the lack of faith in the organization, and they can’t figure that out.

Earlier in the week, we tweeted that an organization that is 3-1/2 games out (which the Tribe was at the time) and didn’t make a move deserves the ire of their fan base.

And if they did want to create some buzz, they would bring up Lindor and let him play shortstop the rest of the season. Of course, they won’t do that either.

When you have a chance to make the playoffs, even a one game wild card contest, you have to take the chance because you don’t know when you will get another shot.

Instead, the Tribe will go with their usual strategy of wishing and hoping for guys like House and/or McAllister to come through.

Maybe they should also hope fans will show up at Progressive Field.