If Tito Retires, Who Should Be Next In Line?

Terry Francona is certainly leaving all the hints that this will be his last year as manager of the Cleveland Guardians. Of course, this has led to all kinds of speculation as to who would will be his successor.

First, no matter how frustrating Francona can be at times to fans, particular younger ones, he has been a tremendous leader. He has won a club record 906 games to date, winning 55% of the contests he has piloted.

Overall, he sits currently at 1935 victories, so he will not become the 13th skipper in big league history to get to that plateau. Every manager with more wins that Francona are in Cooperstown, except for Dusty Baker and Bruce Bochy, who are still active, and will be enshrined when they retire.

He has managed in three World Series, winning two in Boston and of course, losing in the 7th game with the Indians in 2016.

In the four years prior to his arrival, Cleveland won 68, 80, 69, and 65 games. Their lowest since? The 80 wins in 2021.

Francona has faults as a manager, all good managers do. We have always said he skirts a fine line between patience and stubbornness, and we are willing to admit that as much as much as we may want a particular player’s playing time reduced, usually Francona was right in staying with him.

That doesn’t mean we want a current coach to take over though. No matter how much DeMarlo Hale, Mike Sarbaugh, or Sandy Alomar Jr. (three people mentioned as successors) will carry on the foundation of what Francona has built in terms of culture, they aren’t Francona, and that will likely cause a conflict down the road.

We would like to keep Carl Willis, but he’s 63 years old and may not want to work with a new manager. But he’s a big reason for the organization’s “pitching factory” and if the new manager wants a chance to win, the knowledge of the young starters that Willis has will be crucial.

Let’s bring in someone new, perhaps even someone from outside the organization, but also a manager who can combine the analytics-based thinking with some “old school” thoughts as well.

For example, we don’t like the use of openers. We still believe the best way to win a baseball game is to have your starter go six or seven innings of effective work and turn it over to the bullpen.

Francona always said the problem with an opener is what happens if the pitcher you designate gives up three runs in the first. Then you are screwed.

But we don’t want someone who is a slave to the numbers. Someone once said that analytics often get used to justify a decision even if it doesn’t work. We agree with that thinking.

So, we would hire from outside the organization, and let the new manager pick his staff. Sometimes, having someone with a different “perspective” looking at the players is very much needed for an organization.

However, whoever the next skipper is, he won’t have the impact or the longevity of Terry Francona. Cleveland hasn’t had a revolving door in that position since Mike Hargrove was hired in 1991.

Hargrove was here 8-1/2 years, Eric Wedge seven, and Francona 11. Yes, Charlie Manuel and Manny Acta were mixed in, but the organization has been very stable. We would guess that’s something Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff will be looking for.

Guardians In The Mix, Not Unusual Really.

Last season, the Cleveland Indians finished under .500 for the first time in manager Terry Francona’s 10 years at the helm. They finished 80-82, the worst mark since the 2015 team went 81-80.

When you think about it, since the team moved out of Municipal Stadium, they have had a very good record for success. The most games the franchise has lost was 97 in Eric Wedge’s last season as manager in 2009.

They’ve lost over 90 games just three times since 1993, and that was done three times in a four-year span: 2009, 2010, and 2012. The last of those seasons led to the firing of Manny Acta and bringing Francona aboard.

Cleveland has had just three men heading up baseball operations in this timespan: John Hart, Mark Shapiro, and Chris Antonetti. And as you can see by the records, they have never had to tank to get back into contention.

They have made 12 post-season appearances, three of them resulting in World Series appearances. We have said many times that in our youth, when publications did the composite World Series records, Cleveland sat at 2-1 since 1954.

They are now 2-4, but the 1990 version of us never thought the 2-1 would change. But this team has been in as many Fall Classics in the last 27 years than they were in the first 54 seasons they played.

Hopefully, there will never be a 41 year drought between American League pennants again.

Because the Cubs and Astros bottomed out and quickly won a World Championship, that became the way for other teams to be competitive again. Really though, how has that worked for other franchises?

The Tigers haven’t made the playoffs since 2014, and have had just one winning season (2016). And it doesn’t appear they are closer to being over .500. Pittsburgh made the post-season in 2015, they’ve been over .500 just once since then.

It’s not limited to just smaller markets either. The Los Angeles Angels have played three post-season games since 2009, and haven’t reached the break even point since 2015, despite having the best player in the game in Mike Trout.

Our point is that it’s real easy to do what the Cleveland baseball organization has done in the Jacobs/Progressive Field era. And they’ve evolved in how they built the team over team.

In the ’90’s, they were a hitting machine with players like Albert Belle, Hall of Famer Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Kenny Lofton and Omar Vizquel.

When the Dolan family bought the team, they wanted to build around pitching, and in the Francona era, they’ve done just that. There are been four Cy Young Awards since 2007 for organization, starting with C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee in back-to-back years, and two more in the teens for Corey Kluber.

Offensively, it appears they have shifted to players who make contact and put the ball in play. They have struck out the least amount of times in the American League. And at least this season, it has worked because the Guardians are leading the division, something no one predicted at the beginning of the year.

Can they win the Central? They have a chance, and that’s something fans could have said pretty much every season since the new park opened on the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

A lot of other fans bases would love to have that consistency.

2005 Tribe: A Missed Opportunity

In the wild card era of Major League Baseball, the Cleveland Indians have certainly had a great deal of success.

They’ve won three American League pennants (’95, ’97, and 2016). They advanced to the AL Championship Series twice more, losing in 1998 and 2007.

And they’ve went to the post-season more than any other American League team, save for the big market behemoths New York and Boston.

Of the team’s that didn’t make the post-season, the one team that kind of gets overlooked is the 2005 edition of the Indians, managed by Eric Wedge.

The Tribe finished the ’04 campaign at 80-82, and their biggest move of the off-season going into ’05 was probably inking Kevin Millwood as a free agent, although the veteran right-hander was coming off an injury plagued season with the Phillies, throwing only 145 innings.

GM Mark Shapiro also traded OF Matt Lawton to Pittsburgh to fortify the bullpen, getting LHP Arthur Rhodes.

It was the fourth year of a rebuild that started following the 2001 season, when Shapiro dealt Roberto Alomar to New York. By this time, the last remnants of the great 90’s teams were gone via free agency, Jim Thome to Philadelphia following 2002, and Omar Vizquel over the winter.

So, there weren’t big expectations on the Tribe coming into the 2005 season.

And that was confirmed early in the year, and the Indians closed April at 9-14, while the Chicago White Sox started red hot, opening at 17-7.

On May 8th, Cleveland was sitting at 12-18, 11-1/2 games behind the front running White Sox, and the defending champion Central Division champions in Minnesota were also playing well at 19-11.

Wedge’s squad started to play better at this point, going 35-23 to the All Star break, to sit at 47-41, still 11 games behind Chicago, who went through the first half on a torrid pace (57-29), but the Indians were clearly in the wild card race, just two games behind Minnesota.

At the point, Baltimore, Texas, New York, and the young Wahoos, who only had two players over 30 getting substantial playing time (Aaron Boone and Casey Blake), were very much in the race.

Cleveland was paced by their pitching, they wound up leading the AL in ERA, mostly a five man rotation that made all but four starts all season.

Millwood led the league in ERA at 2.86, but he, Jake Westbrook (15-15, 4.49 ERA), C.C. Sabathia (15-10, 4.03), Cliff Lee (18-5, 3.79), and Scott Elarton (11-9, 4.61) took the mound every fifth day.

The bullpen was strong too, led by closer Bob Wickman (45 saves) and set up men Bob Howry (2.47 ERA), Rafael Betancourt (2.79 ERA), David Riske (3.10 ERA).

The offense ranked 4th in runs scored, with big years from Travis Hafner (.305, 33 HR, 108 RBI, 1003 OPS), Jhonny Peralta (.292, 24, 78 885 OPS), Victor Martinez (.305, 20, 80, 853 OPS), and Grady Sizemore (.289, 22, 81, 832 OPS).

All of those guys were under 28, and Peralta was 23, while Sizemore was 22.

Cleveland struggled out of the break and finished July at 55-51, 14.5 behind the Pale Hose, and now four behind Oakland, who got hot and seized the wild card lead.

Then, it was the Tribe’s turn to get hot, going 19-8 in August, while the Sox came back to the pack. The lead was seven games heading into September, and the wild card deficit was down to 1.5 behind the Yankees, who were also scolding hot.

The Indians started September 18-4, and after games on 9/24, the Tribe was just a game and a half behind Chicago, and held a game and a half lead in the wild card standings. They had the second best record in the AL at 92-63.

Unfortunately, they would win just one more game the rest of the year.

On the 25th, with the score tied in the bottom of the ninth, and Kansas City had a runner on second with one out, when Paul Phillips hit a fly ball that Grady Sizemore lost in the sun, and the Royals won 5-4.

Chicago and Boston won, so Cleveland trailed Chicago by 2.5 and led the wild card by just a half game, with a three game set at home vs. lowly Tampa coming up.

The Tribe dropped the opener to Scott Kazmir, who was staked to an early 5-0 lead, before the Indians clawed back at trailed 5-4 in the bottom of the ninth with runners on 1st and 3rd with just one out. Ronnie Belliard hit into a double play.

Cleveland was shutout the next night by Seth McClung, 1-0, wasting a great pitching performance by Lee, before Sabathia and Betancourt blanked the Rays, 6-0.

Heading into the final weekend at home vs. Chicago, the Tribe was 3 behind the Sox, and tied with Boston for the wild card.

The Indians mustered just 6 runs against the Sox in the three games, losing by counts of 3-2 (in 13 innings), 4-3, and 3-1. The Tribe tied the first game in the bottom of the ninth, but another double play ball, this one off the bat of Boone, killed the rally.

Cleveland wound up missing the wild card by two games. The White Sox won the pennant and ultimately the World Series.

Another frustrating chapter of baseball in our city.

Tribe Versatility Important to Team Success

When Eric Wedge managed the Indians, many fans thought his ideal team would consist of players who could all play every position on the field. He loved versatility.

His most noted experiment involved trying to make Ryan Garko, a college catcher, who quite frankly had no speed whatsoever into an outfielder, playing him in both LF and RF.

He used Casey Blake, a third baseman by trade, at 1B and in the outfield.

He loved guys like Chris Gimenez, who could catch and play other positions, and when then-GM Mark Shapiro traded for Mark DeRosa, he had to be ecstatic.

The problem for Wedge was he tried to make young players, who were playing everyday (Garko) play other spots, and the guys like Gimenez are marginal major league players at best.

We say this because if you look at the current Indians’ roster, they have a bunch of players who can play multiple positions.

The difference is Terry Francona’s team is littered with guys who have performed in that role for most of their major league careers, and in most cases, have flourished moving around the field and not being in the lineup everyday.

The main players on Francona’s bench are veterans Ryan Raburn and Mike Aviles. Raburn can play the corner outfield spots as well as both infield corner spots and even 2B in a pinch.

Aviles can play all of the infield spots and even played a few games in LF last season.

And although neither of them will get 500 at bats in a season, when they get around 300 plate appearances in a season, they are solid big league hitters.

Everyone points out that Raburn will likely not be as productive as he was last season (901 OPS in 243 at bats), but his career average is .258 with 10 HRs per year and a respectable 762 OPS.

Aviles is a career .273 hitter and gets around 8 homers per year.

Francona was a master last year of putting players like Aviles and Raburn in situations where they would be productive, and there is no reason to think the same won’t be true in 2014.

Now, the Tribe is trying to improve the versatility of the Tribe by giving Carlos Santana some playing time at third base. While no one really believe the plan is for Santana to play full-time at the hot corner, he gives the skipper an option against a tough lefty to put Santana there instead of Lonnie Chisenhall.

The difference in the Santana conversion and those of the Wedge era is that the player went to Francona and the front office and wanted to make the move instead of being a full-time DH.

This way, the former and current back up catcher can play a day or two at first base, allowing Nick Swisher a day off or a day at DH, maybe a day at third, and catch one game to give Yan Gomes a day off.

If a young player isn’t on board with the move, then it doesn’t have as good a chance of succeeding. Besides, Santana was a third baseman in the minor leagues, so he’s played the position before.

It’s a tribute to the locker room that Francona and the front office have crafted that Santana wanted to make this move.

Watching this move from his view as an ESPN analyst, Eric Wedge is surely envious.