Tribe Probably Looking For A New Closer…For 2021

It has been a long time since Terry Francona has needed to groom a closer, but other than winning baseball games, that might be his most important secondary chore in the 2020 season.

When Francona took over as Tribe skipper in 2013, Chris Perez was the closer, coming off a 39 save season in 2012, and although he had some injury issues during the campaign, he saved 25 for Cleveland in ’13.

When Perez was out, Francona used Vinnie Pestano and Bryan Shaw to close, but he was using a young 24-year-old right-hander drafted just two years prior as a set up man.

That pitcher was Cody Allen, and he took over the closer role the following season and saved a club record 156 games for the Tribe over the next five years, including seven in post-season play in 2016 and 2017.

With Allen on the roster and pitching effectively, Tito didn’t have to worry about who was pitching the ninth inning, he simply handed the ball to Allen, and the reliever was always ready to get four outs if need be.

Allen was such a good fit and a team player, that when the Indians traded for Andrew Miller in ’16, Francona used the southpaw as a “super reliever” bringing him in whenever the fire was the hottest.

He could do that because of the confidence he had in Allen.

In 2018, when both Allen and Miller started to leak some oil, perhaps because the extra work in the ’16 run to the World Series, president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff traded for San Diego closer Brad Hand, who saved eight games that season, and 34 a year ago.

Hand is signed through this season, but has a club option for $10 million for the 2021 season, and even without the uncertainty of baseball finances next year due to the coronavirus, we would doubt Cleveland wants to pay a closer that kind of cash.

At the initial spring training, people were looking forward to seeing the combination of youngsters Emmanuel Clase, 21, who came over in the Corey Kluber trade, and rookie James Karinchak, 23, who debuted last September, setting up the veteran Hand.

A righty, Clase has a 100 MPH cutter that Frankie Lindor said was the nastiest pitch he’s ever seen, and appeared in 21 games for Texas, going 2-3 with one save and a 2.31 ERA in 23.1 innings with 21 strikeouts.

Karinchak is famous, at least here, for his gaudy strikeout rates coming through the Indians’ farm system.

However, Clase has been suspended for the ’20 season due to PED usage, so the manager will not get to see him under fire this season.

So, it would seem that if Karinchak can throw strikes, which has been an issue in his minor league career, he could give Francona enough confidence to use him as the closer in 2021, and in turn, allow the front office to either pick up Hand’s option and trade him or not pick up the option at all.

On the other hand, as former Tribe GM John Hart used to say, closers fall out of trees, so as the 2020 season plays out, it may be someone else who earns the skipper’s confidence.

Perhaps a veteran like James Hoyt or Phil Maton, or maybe injury plagued prospect Triston McKenzie gets used as a bullpen arm. Or it could be someone like Cam Hill or Kyle Nelson.

Remember, it’s not just the arm that makes a solid closer, it’s dealing with the pressure of pitching with the game on the line. The closer has to be someone who can shake off a bad performance and go out and do the job the next night. Kind of an “everyday” pitcher.

We know the Indians want to win ballgames this season, but finding a successor to Hand might be the most important secondary thing to come out of the 2020 season.

Looking At A Possible 50 Man Roster For The Tribe.

There has been a lot of discussion of what rosters for major league baseball teams will look like if a season gets underway in early July.

The most common model has been a 50 man pool in which each team can choose from, and a 30 player active roster for each game.

If that is the case, how do the Cleveland Indians make up the 50 players who will be eligible for this season?

You would presume the normal 40 man roster would be part of this equation, but in looking at the Tribe’s situation, that would mean you would have to make room for a third catcher (neither Beau Taylor or Cameron Rupp are currently on the 40 man), and neither is utility man Mike Freeman.

Another possible hurdle for the Indians is that only one of their Top 10 Prospects, RHP Triston McKenzie, is currently on the 40 man roster. So, if the extra ten spots were being used for prospects, nine of them are already filled.

There is some normal jostling of the 40 man roster coming out of spring training anyway, so some of these moves would have had to be made anyway. For example, Freeman would have probably made the team anyway, necessitating a move to the 40 man roster.

Does this mean the Indians will take the remaining nine top prospects, plus a third catcher as the ten extra men who can travel with the squad this season?

The Tribe’s prospect list is very young, so while they would love for those players not to miss a year of development, the only players who might be able to help the big league team this season are Nolan Jones and Tyler Freeman, and the latter has never played above the high A level.

Of prospects #11-#20 (we are using Baseball America’s list), many of those players are on the 40 man roster already: #11 Logan Allen, #12 Bobby Bradley, #13 Scott Moss, #15 Emmanuel Clase, #16 James Karinchak, and #17 Sam Hentges.

Karinchak figured to make the Opening Day roster anyway.

That would seem to leave these players needing a place to develop in 2020: #14 RHP Carlos Vargas (highest level Mahoning Valley), #18 RHP Luis Oviedo (Lake County), #19 SS Yordys Valdes (Arizona Rookie League), and #20 SS Angel Martinez (Dominican Rookie League).

We would think most big league club will have extended spring training going for these younger players with intrasquad games to provide competition.

Since the Indians share their Goodyear, Arizona facility with the Reds, our guess is those two organizations’ prospects will be very familiar with each other by the end of the summer.

The Indians could make more room on the proposed 50 man squad by sending some of their younger players in the top ten to their complex as well.

We are talking about players like last year’s first round pick RHP Daniel Espino (#6), RHP Ethan Hankins (#8), SS Gabriel Rodriguez (#10) and perhaps even OF George Valera (#4), SS Brayan Rocchio (#5), and 2B Aaron Brocho (#9).

The key there is will the sport allow these younger players to have access to the spring training facilities. Although if there is a season, we don’t see why that would not be allowed.

Usually, you can look at the 40 man roster, and see some candidates to be let go, but we don’t believe the Indians have players like that who could sneak through waivers and remain part of the organization.

Maybe a player like RHP Jean Carlos Mejia, who at 23 has never pitched above the High Class A level, but the other candidates would be INF Christian Arroyo, who the Indians traded for a year ago and was a top prospect beset by injuries, Yu Chang, or players like Greg Allen and/or Bradley Zimmer, and it would be a shock if the organization moved on from them.

If the players and owners can agree to a system that works for this year, it will certainly be different from the norm, but the strategy of organizations will be interesting.

How the Indians react will no doubt be discussed at large when the decisions are made.

Can Someone Step Up In Tribe Bullpen?

Coming into spring training everyone was excited to see the new power arms in the Cleveland Indians’ bullpen.

James Karinchak struck out everyone in the minor leagues, and then came up in September to whiff eight hitters in 5-2/3 big league innings. Then, they added Emmanuel Clase from Texas in the Corey Kluber deal, and he comes to Cleveland with a 100 MPH cutter.

Certainly, they would combine with Brad Hand to give the Tribe a formidable back end of the bullpen, allowing Terry Francona to shorten games.

Things always look good on paper, though.

Now, Clase is out for 8-12 weeks with an upper back muscle pull, so there is an opening on the roster to come north with the team on March 26th.

Right now, these pitchers would seem to have a roster spot locked up: Hand, Karinchak, Nick Wittgren, and Oliver Perez.

We would include Adam Cimber, but he’s on the shelf right now too.

With Francona usually wanting eight relievers, that would leave four spots open in the bullpen.

The concern right now is the performance of some of what folks considered the leading candidates to fill those spots.

Hunter Wood has spent parts of the last three years in the big leagues, and has been a decent performer out of the ‘pen. He’s allowed six earned runs in an inning and a third in two appearances with two walks.

Dominic Leone is a reliever brought in over the winter with major league experience and he has pitched three times in Arizona, and been knocked around each time.

James Hoyt received some high leverage appearances in September last season, so you would think he’s got an inside track to open the season in Cleveland, but he needs to start getting people out. He’s allowed seven hits and four runs in 3-1/3 frames.

The most effective of the veterans is a guy we mentioned in a piece a week ago. Phil Maton has allowed just one run in five outings.

Does this open up the competition? Yesterday, Jefry Rodriguez, thought to be a starter, was used in relief vs. the Angels. He pitched a solid first inning, but got cuffed around in his second inning of work. He hasn’t been particularly effective either, allowing eight runs in 4-1/3 innings.

Although it is early, we are sure that Francona, Carl Willis, and new bullpen coach Brian Sweeney wouldn’t mind seeing people getting hitters out.

Does this open the door for some non-roster invitees to claim a spot? We understand it’s not the usual way the Indians do business, but on the other hand, they really can’t afford a bad start to the 2020 season.

For example, Kyle Nelson could provide a third lefty out of the bullpen. The 23-year-old southpaw struck out 69 hitters in 47-1/3 innings in the minors a year ago, including 16 in 12 AAA frames. He’s made just one appearance in a major league game this spring though.

We have seen more of 25-year-old Cam Hill though. Hill had a 4.74 ERA at Columbus last season, fanning 36 hitters in 24 innings. He’s made three appearances this spring, allowing just one run.

This is a season to check out exhibition box scores, to see what relievers are pitching early in games, when the regulars are still playing, and if any new names are appearing. If you see that, it could mean the staff is searching for some answers, should the veterans continue to struggle.

Tribe Keys To A Fast Start.

If the Cleveland Indians want to return to the post-season in 2020, they obviously have to make up ground on last season’s division champion, Minnesota Twins.

Either the Tribe needs to decrease the 170 runs scored gap between them and the Twins or they need to widen the .44 divide in ERA. Doing both would be optimal.

Last season (according to WAR), the three worst spots for the Indians were second base, DH, and centerfield.

With that said, here are the players we consider to be the keys for the 2020 Tribe–

Cesar Hernandez. The switch-hitting former Phillie is replacing long time second baseman, Jason Kipnis. The Cleveland front office is hoping that last season was a blip on the radar in terms of the soon to be 30 year old’s ability to get on base.

From 2016-18, Hernandez’ lowest on base percentage was .356. He walked 95 times in ’18. He also tailed off in the second half a year ago, with a 759 OPS before the All Star Game, and 720 after.

Last year, Kipnis had a .304 on base percentage, and Cleveland is hoping that Hernandez can take some walks and move the offense along.

Oscar Mercado had a .318 OBP hitting mostly in the #2 hole in ’19. If Hernandez can get on base at his career mark (.352), he could fit in nicely in that spot and give more opportunities for the middle of the order to drive him in.

Domingo Santana/Franmil Reyes. To put it nicely, one of the reasons the Indians traded for Reyes at the deadline in July was the production of their DH’s were atrocious, and LF wasn’t much better.

If Santana can hit like he did in the first half (.286, 18 HR, 63 RBI, .850 OPS), then all of a sudden the Indians have two power bats in their lineup, and when you add in Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, and Jose Ramirez, it gives them five guys with 25+ home run power.

Last year, Minnesota had five players with 30 or more blasts.

Defensively, it could be a challenge putting one of these guys out there on a regular basis, but Terry Francona could replace them if he has a lead late in the contest.

Oscar Mercado. Cleveland’s WAR in CF was low in part due to Leonys Martin’s dreadful performance before he was released, but they need Mercado to improve upon his rookie season.

The 25 year old was pretty steady (755 OPS in the first half, 765 in the second) in his rookie year, but an improvement in his .318 on base percentage would help him be a better offensive threat.

He could wind up hitting lower in the order if the skipper determines he would rather have Hernandez’ ability to get on at the top of the order.

Bullpen Heat. Francona and pitching coach Carl Willis got better results than could have been expected from a relief corp without many hard throwers, particularly after Brad Hand developed a tired arm.

Everyone, from the fans to the front office, are banking on the impact and development of young flame throwers Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak to help shorten games.

That put less stress on the starting pitching, which is also young, at least to start the season.

Our guess is Francona will want to start them slowly, but may not be able to.

The Tribe needs to get off to a faster start than a year ago, and shortening games with the two new toys will help.

Remember, the Twins won the Central because they had an 11-1/2 game lead on June 2nd, due to them being 29-30. From then on, Cleveland went 64-33, and played at a pace that was three games better than Minnesota, and that’s with the Tribe losing their last five.

These players could be the key, along with a healthy Lindor, to getting off to that good start.

Tribe Roster Battles Heading To Spring Training.

For every baseball fan, these are magic words: Pitchers and catchers report this week.

That happens this week for most Major League Baseball teams, including the Cleveland Indians. Usually under the management of Terry Francona, there aren’t many questions in regards to the 25, now 26 man roster.

This season, there will be some competition for jobs when the Tribe comes north on March 28th to take on the Detroit Tigers, and we will take a look at those battles.

The Outfield. With the impending addition of outfielder Domingo Santana, there will be 10 man battling for five or perhaps six spots on the roster. It would seem that Oscar Mercado, Franmil Reyes, and Jordan Luplow have spots locked up.

We can probably include Domingo Santana in that group as well.

That leaves six players (Bradley Zimmer, Daniel Johnson, Greg Allen, Jake Bauers, Delino DeShields, and also Tyler Naquin (if his knee is ready to go) battling for one or two spots.

The left-handed hitters would seem to have an edge because if the Indians continue to use Luplow as a platoon player, they need a partner. If Naquin is ready to go, he is that guy.

We feel Francona will keep six outfielders with DeShields seeming to have an inside track too.

That leaves Zimmer, Johnson, Allen, and Bauers on the outside looking in. If Naquin isn’t ready, we would guess Bauers gets the first shot.

The Bullpen. There is much excitement surrounding the ‘pen because of the acquisition of Emmanuel Clase and the emergence of James Karinchak at the end of last season.

However, those two have combined for just 28 innings at the big league level, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see either start at Columbus because they had a bad spring training.

Brad Hand will be the closer, and we would say Oliver Perez and Nick Wittgren have spots locked up.

That leaves the two youngsters to battle with Phil Maton, Adam Cimber, James Hoyt, Hunter Wood, and perhaps Jefry Rodriguez to come north. And don’t forget Dominic Leone, a non-roster invitee who pitched for St. Louis in 2019.

We listed 10 names and Francona likes to have eight guys in his bullpen, so two of this group will open in AAA.

The new rule in which a reliever must face three hitters may put Cimber in Columbus to start the year, and Rodriguez may be used as a starter to start the year.

Utility Man. While the 40 man roster is filled with outfielders, the only other infielders besides the starters are Yu Chang, Christian Arroyo, and Andrew Velazquez.

The latter may have the inside track because our guess is the front office want the other two playing everyday in AAA, especially Arroyo, because he hasn’t played much the past two years because of injury.

However, if Arroyo, a former top 100 prospect with the Giants is impressive in Arizona, he could force himself on the big club.

All this said, there is always a chance for a surprise in camp. Perhaps no one can get Johnson or Zimmer out in games, and Francona puts them on the Opening Day roster.

And we hate to say it, but injuries could play a factor as well.

By the end of this month, games (exhibition, but still) will be played and we get to see our Boys of Summer (nod to the great Roger Kahn). It won’t be long until the Indians are home.

MWS

The Kluber Deal Isn’t Over Yet.

Our thoughts on the Indians’ trade of two time Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber? Let us know when it is complete.

Yes, we understand the deal with the Rangers has been completed with the Tribe getting reliever Emmanuel Clase and OF Delino DeShields Jr. in exchange for Kluber, but what Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff do from here is what will form opinion on the transaction.

We don’t have a huge problem with the concept of dealing Kluber, even though he is arguably the best pitcher Cleveland has had since Bob Feller. You deal from strength, and starting pitching is the Indians’ strength.

In reality, we thought Kluber was going to be moved a year ago, coming off a 20 win season, because the Tribe had holes to fill, and moving the veteran right-hander could have filled at least a couple of those needs.

They kept him and Trevor Bauer going into the 2019 season, and now both are gone, bringing Franmil Reyes, Clase, DeShields, and Logan Allen, a top 100 prospect as recently as before last season, and Scott Moss. Both Allen and Moss are southpaws, and could be in Cleveland this season.

Cleveland needs help in the bullpen, and Clase could team with James Karinchak to form a high octane duo to set up Brad Hand. Clase has a 100 MPH cutter, and Karinchak is a strikeout artist. No question the Indians needed some power arms in the back end of the bullpen.

DeShields isn’t really a factor for us. He had a 672 OPS last season, and away from the hitter’s haven that is (was) Globe Life Park, that figure drops to 519. It is hard to imagine him making an impact on Terry Francona’s roster in 2020.

Those two in themselves don’t qualify as enough return for a man who was one of the best starting pitchers in baseball as recently as 2018.

The reason we say we can’t evaluate the move right now is the roughly $14-15 million saved by Cleveland in the deal. If as Antonetti says, that cash will be used to strengthen the roster, then it could be a great move.

The Indians still have holes at either 2B or 3B (Jose Ramirez will play the other spot), and they could certainly use another proven bat in the outfield. If the front office uses the saved money to fill those areas, then the ballclub might be better off in the long run.

Without Kluber, the Cleveland has a projected starting rotation of Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac. The also have Adam Plutko, Jefry Rodriguez, Allen, Moss, and hopefully Triston McKenzie available in AA and above.

At least one and maybe more could be candidates for the bullpen too.

The ball is now in the hands of the front office. Use the newly found money to supplement the major league roster.

Of course, we thought they would do the same thing last winter, and they wound up just trimming the payroll from where it was in 2018.

After winning 93 games a year ago, the Cleveland Indians shouldn’t be looking at a rebuilding mode, they should be looking at chasing down the Minnesota Twins.

Hopefully, they will add to the roster so they can return to the post-season in 2020.