Cavs’ Bench Has No Big Man Depth

When this basketball season began, many people (us included) thought that Cavs’ GM David Griffin had put together a talented and deep basketball team.

We marveled at a second five that included four players who have been starters in the NBA:  Mike Miller, Shawn Marion, Brendan Haywood, and Tristan Thompson.

With the season almost halfway through, we see how wrong we were.

First, Dion Waiters didn’t seem to fit with the starting unit, and first Marion, then Miller were inserted in the starting role for him.  However, Waiters’ scoring and overall game should have been a boost to the bench bunch, and for the most part it has been.

Then, Anderson Varejao tore his achilles, forcing Thompson into the starting role.

In terms of efficiency, the wine and gold have played better with Thompson out there with LeBron James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving.

But, putting Thompson in the first five leaves a void because Haywood hasn’t been able to contribute for a variety of reasons.

He’s only played nine games this season, averaging just six minutes per night.

We believe the reason for that is the lack of low-post oriented centers in the league right now.  In the Eastern Conference, you basically have Roy Hibbert and Andre Drummond.

The game has evolved into having centers who play away from the basket now, and based on what we’ve seen, Haywood would have a problem guarding these players out on the floor.  That leaves rookie Alex Kirk, and he probably isn’t ready for the NBA game either at this point.

Then, LeBron James went down, and that forced Matthew Dellavedova into the starting lineup.  Dellavedova is an energy guy, a player who moves the ball and plays solid defense, and he’s starting so Waiters can continue to come off the bench.

So, right now it leaves coach David Blatt with two players, Waiters and Marion, who are giving him quality minutes off the pines, and that isn’t enough.

The problem Blatt has now is too many of his reserves are too one-dimensional.

Since the injury bug has hit, the coach has tried to use James Jones more, but let’s face it, Jones is a one-dimensional player.  He’s a shooter, a long-range bomber who is effective from outside the arc.

But he’s not a good defender, rebounder, or passer, so he’s reliant on guys who can penetrate and get the ball to him for open shots.

Lou Amundson can give the team some minutes at the power forward spot, but he’s another energy guy, who really doesn’t have the bulk (225 pounds) to guard the bigger forwards at the NBA level. As a comparison, Love weighs 260 pounds.

A. J. Price is the one guy who probably should get more minutes, but the void currently is up front, where somebody needs to give Love and Thompson some rest.

Blatt has tried using Marion at power forward at times, but he’s undersized at that spot too.

This is why Griffin needs to find the coach a big man who can give him some minutes, and he needs to do it soon.  Friday night at Charlotte, the Cavs got hammered on the boards and this team needs to rebound well so they can run.

Before the season started, it looked like the Cavaliers had a good plan in place, but good GMs need to react when the original plan isn’t working.

The time for reaction is now.

JK

Cavs Ignore Shooting as Part of Game

While we are always critical of Cavaliers’ coach Mike Brown’s offense strategy, he does work under the handicap of not having an excellent shooter on his roster.

The Cavaliers rank last in the NBA in field goal percentage, making just 42.3% of their shots from the floor.  And from beyond the three-point line, they are slightly better, ranking 21st among the 30 teams at 35.0%.

To illustrate the importance of shooting, here are the top five teams in the league in making shots:  Miami, San Antonio, Houston, Oklahoma City, and Dallas.  All five of those teams would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

Now, this percentage can be raised by fast break opportunities which lead to high percentage layups and dunks.

So, a more accurate gauge of pure shooting would be the three-point field goal percentage, and again, out of the top five in this category (Spurs, Pelicans, Wizards, Trailblazers, and Warriors), four of them would also reach the post-season.

Why is having shooters important?  Well, the obvious answer is the score is kept by putting the ball through the basket.

Still, the real reason you need them is to spread the floor, especially when you have put together a number of guards who excel at driving to the basket like Cleveland has with Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters.

And when the shot clock is running down, you can get the ball to a shooter who has a decent chance of making a long shot.

The closest thing Mike Brown has to a threat from outside is swingman C.J. Miles, who hits 39% from outside the arc.  Acting GM David Griffin did take a good stride in this direction in obtaining Spencer Hawes, who is making 40.5% from distance this year.

There is no one else on the roster that opponents need to respect when they are standing beyond the arc.

To be fair, former GM Chris Grant did covet Bradley Beal in last year’s draft, but Washington snapped him up before the Cavs turn with the fourth pick which turned out to be Waiters.

Beal is currently 13th in the NBA in 3 point field goal percentage, making 41.9% of his shots.

Brown’s mentor, Gregg Popovich has embraced the three pointer, with two players among the top 20 in accuracy, and to be fair, when Brown was here before, he had snipers like Damon Jones, Donyell Marshall, and Boobie Gibson on the roster, all guys who could knock down the open three.

Irving is the Cavs’ most frequent shooter from outside and makes 36% of his attempts, but he is one of the guys who make their living driving to the hoop, and opponents want him to take that shot because he is so lethal going to the basket.

Waiters is the same type of player, but when you watch a game, don’t you wish we would go to the hoop more instead of shooting long jumpers?  Opponents do too.

The Cavs need a player like Kyle Korver or Jamal Crawford or Marco Bellinelli, a pure shooter that defenses respect and are forced to account for when they are on the floor.  Players like that also provide useful targets for Irving and Waiters when they penetrate.

Grant may have started to address the situation by drafting Sergey Karasev last year, but right now Brown considers him too green and too much of a defensive liability to get off the bench.

That’s not helping the current team, and it put too much of a burden on guards to get to the basket to create any kind of scoring.

Just another reason this Cavalier team has struggled to meet expectations.

JK

GM Grant Needs to Add Shooter

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a struggling basketball team.

They’ve had four draft picks in the top four of the draft over the last three years.  They’ve hired a new coach.  They’ve taken some chance on the free agent market.

Yet, to date, the result is the same.  They continue to struggle and right now they are sitting at 10-21 on the season, and are on pace to win 27 games, a mere three more than last season, a record that got their coach, Byron Scott, fired.

That would seem to put the onus squarely on the shoulders of GM Chris Grant. 

Grant has brought in some talented players, with the prime example being Kyrie Irving, the first overall pick in 2011, won the NBA Rookie of the Year, and has made an all-star team.

Outside of this year’s first overall pick, Anthony Bennett, the other two players who were selected in the top four of the draft were power forward Tristan Thompson, a solid player in the league and Dion Waiters, who has shown ability since entering the league last year.

So, Grant hasn’t taken any stiffs, with the disclaimer that it is still way too early to make any judgment on Bennett, who’s only 31 games into his rookie season.

Still, it seems that the GM hasn’t put together a basketball “team”, meaning the mix of talent hasn’t been working. 

While we have supported Grant’s talent evaluation in the past, we did so thinking he would convert the duplicate talent he has at certain positions and convert them where the team’s weaknesses are.

The wine and gold have a plethora of power forwards in Thompson, Anderson Varejao, Earl Clark, and Bennett and a bounty of point guard types in Irving, Waiters, and Jarrett Jack. 

This forces Mike Brown to have to play two power forwards and two point guards for much of the game.  That’s not a good mix offensively and defensively.

What the Cavaliers do not have are shooters.  Sure, Irving won the three point shooting contest last season, but he’s more of a penetrating guard than a pure shooter. 

The odd thing is, these types of guys should be fairly easy to obtain, a lot of them bounce around the league like Kyle Korver and J.J. Redick. 

That’s what is lacking with the Cavs right now. They don’t have a lot of guys who can put the ball in the basket from outside.

So when Irving and Waiters get into the lane with dribble penetration, they don’t have options to kick it out to, which makes the defense protect the basket all the more, making it tougher for those guys to score.

The extra power forwards aren’t as critical because Brown can use them, along with Tyler Zeller at center to alleviate some of the logjam, but the imbalance in the backcourt and at the small forward spot isn’t providing a winning mix.

On New Year’s Eve, the Cavs played the Indiana Pacers even for three quarters, but simply couldn’t make shots in the fourth quarter, being held to eight points for most of the quarter. 

When a guard did get into the paint, there was the overwhelming presence of Roy Hibbert, and when the ball got kicked outside, they don’t have a reliable shooter.

If anything is to be salvaged this season, Grant has to act quickly.  As it stands, the wine and gold can still make the playoffs despite their mediocre record. 

In basketball, pure talent isn’t the only determining factor.  You have to have the right mix and the Cavaliers don’t.

It’s on Chris Grant to make the correct moves and balance out his roster.  And he needs to do it sooner than later.

JK

Lack of Waiters Takes Away Huge Chunk of Cavs’ Offense

The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit a wall since Dion Waiters went down with a sprained wrist, losing four of their last five, following a skein where they won five of six.

That stretch made it appear that the team was turning a corner and at 9-13 following the winning streak, they looked poised to challenge the .500 mark, which in the Eastern Conference would certainly get you in the playoffs.

Casual fans throughout northern Ohio were also talking about how the offense had picked up with the wine and gold scoring over 100 points five games in a row.  They were quick to point out that Mike Brown’s offense was working.

But Waiters injury has sent the Cavaliers into a tailspin.  Why?  Is he that important to this basketball team?

How can that be since he is supposedly a malcontent?

The reason can be explained by examining Brown’s offense. 

In today’s Plain Dealer, Terry Pluto discusses how the Cavs’ shooting percentage and scoring are down from last year.  This drop in offensive efficiency has offset the improvement made on the defensive end.

As we have discussed before, Cleveland’s attack is predicated on dribble penetration, and right now, the Cavs only have two players who can take defenders off the dribble consistently:  Kyrie Irving and Waiters.  This means the latter’s absence cuts the number of players who can perform the primary tenet of the offense down to one.

Watch tonight’s game.  There is very little movement away from the basketball.  And in close games, where defenses tighten up, it becomes increasingly more difficult for players to get to the basket.  That’s why the wine and gold struggle in late game situations.  They spend 3/4 of the shot clock trying to get to the basket, and have precious little time to set up a good shot.

Instead, why not pick away from the ball to free up an open and very makeable mid-range jump shot or even open up a driving lane for someone else to get to the basket? 

The Cavaliers’ shooting percentage is down because they are forced to take bad shots with the shot clock winding down because there is no offensive plan.

C. J. Miles was hitting shots early in the year, scoring 86 points in his first six games (14.3 ppg), but since, he has scored in double figures just three times, scoring just 6.2 per night.  The closest anyone has come to picking up the perimeter shooting has been Earl Clark.

They can be effective when the defense is playing well, and they are forcing missed shots and getting out to run the floor, because they aren’t in half court situations.  We also see Irving trying to force tempo off of made shots to get the Cavs into situations where they can get a good look before the opposing defenses are set up.

So, what is the solution?

Well, there are two.  First, they could get one or two more players who can get to the basket on a regular basis.  Then, the Cavs can spread the floor and open up the court to create driving lanes.

Or, they could develop an offense that has some movement away from the ball to free players up for open mid-range jump shots.  At this point in the season, that would certainly be more difficult. 

Brown has tried to develop a low post presence with Andrew Bynum in the game, and that has helped.  Bynum most definitely draws a double team down low, which leaves someone open.  Starting Clark at small forward would provide two outside shooting threats (along with Miles) to go with the inside out game.

The points total is starting to climb, but the Cavalier offense isn’t really more effective.  Getting Dion Waiters back in the lineup would be a start in making the attack a lot better.

JK

On the Cavs Offense Troubles

The NBA season is a week old and after the Cleveland Cavaliers won their opener, apparently there were a few fans that felt the days of 60 win seasons returned with Mike Brown.

That is based on the reaction of some people after the wine and gold lost consecutive road games to Charlotte and Indiana. 

The truth is this team has to get used to playing together.  There are several new, key pieces getting a lot of playing time.

Think about it.  In Brown’s top nine players are only five players (Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, Alonzo Gee, C. J. Miles, and Dion Waiters), who were with the Cavs last season.

And since those five aren’t usually on the court at the same time, there is an adjustment period needed.

The holdovers have to get used to playing with Earl Clark, Andrew Bynum, and Jarret Jack and have to be re-acquainted with Anderson Varejao.

They have to learn where these players want the ball to be effective, and in Bynum’s case working off a legitimate low post threat.

That could explain the offensive struggles that hurt the Cavs during the two road losses.  Of course, it also could be the schemes that Brown has put together which at times seems like an early pick and roll, and if that doesn’t work, it’s up to Irving to come up with something.

That’s how Brown’s offense worked when LeBron James was here.  Last night, Austin Carr mentioned the Cavaliers struggled late in the game because there were too many 1-4 sets with Irving trying to break down the defense.

Brown has stated he has stressed defense in training camp and has done very little with the offense, and we will give him the benefit of the doubt on this right now.  Still, his history has shown his offense has struggled especially against good defenses and in crunch time.

The other problem for the Cavaliers right now is they aren’t shooting the basketball very well.  Whether that is part of the offensive design or not remains to be seen, but several Cleveland players are having problems in this area.

Both starting guards are really having problems. 

Irving is the league’s defending three point shooting champion and right now, he is shooting just 37% from the floor, compared to 46% in his first two years in the league.  He has also hit just 2 or 11 attempts from behind the arc. 

You have to expect that this is just temporary based on his track record.

His backcourt mate, Dion Waiters had some issues with shot selection as a rookie, but he still made 41% of his shots.  Through four games this season, he is making just one out of every three shots. 

Newcomer Earl Clark is another player way off his career norm.  Clark hit 44% of his field goal attempts a year ago, and is making only 32% from the floor after four games.

Thank goodness for C. J. Miles, who is off to a sizzling start, hitting 52% of his shots and making 8 of 21 from three-point range.

Irving, Waiters, and Clark will start to make more shots, but Brown’s history shows people have reason for concern about the ability to score points late in games.

There has to be a better plan than get the ball to Kyrie and hope for the best.

JK

Bynum Should Be Viewed as Bonus

In the next couple of days, the Cleveland Cavaliers will officially sign Andrew Bynum to a contract, making him the newest member of the wine and gold.

It was a great low risk, high reward signing by GM Chris Grant, as if the big man’s knees aren’t healthy, the parties can go their separate ways after the season and the Cavs will keep their salary cap flexibility.

If Bynum is healthy, the Cavaliers get one of the few legitimate centers still playing in the NBA, and a quality one at that.

However, the organization should still tread very carefully in putting this year’s team together.  In fact, they should plan things based on not having Bynum available at all this season.

That seems a bit harsh, but if the Cavs are serious about building a team that can make the playoffs, then they need to put that squad together without the former Laker, and have anything he gives the wine and gold be a bonus.

The state of Bynum’s knees are such that he missed a complete season last year while on the roster of the Philadelphia 76ers, who made the playoffs the year before and actually won a playoff series.

The Sixers gave up an all-star in Andre Iguodala, who would be a free agent after the season, to rebuild their squad around a franchise center, only to see him not play a minute.

They would up winning fewer games than they did the year before in a strike shortened season (35-31 in ’11-’12 vs. 34-48 in ’12-’13), missed the playoffs, and traded their starting point guard, Jrue Holliday for Nerlens Noel, the rookie from Kentucky who had knee surgery last winter.

This isn’t to say the same chain of events will happen to the Cavs if they put all of their eggs in the Bynum basket, but Grant needs to continue to put together a team that can compete for a playoff spot even if he doesn’t play a minute for them.

Cleveland should have a solid backcourt with Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, and Jarret Jack taking most of the minutes.  There shouldn’t be any weakness at that spot if that trio can stay healthy.

Besides Bynum, the team has other injury woes that need to be address in the front court, as C/PF Anderson Varejao also cannot be considered reliable.  That means that coach Mike Brown will have to depend on Tyler Zeller as his only true pivot man, with his only other options being true power forwards like Tristan Thompson, Earl Clark, and Anthony Bennett.

That means Grant should be looking for another big man who can take minutes if Bynum and Varejao can’t take the floor.  And if the former can’t go, they certainly need a big man who is a threat to score in the low post.

The Cavs also need to continue to look for a legitimate small forward so Alonzo Gee can come off the bench.  Gee’s game plays better in smaller spurts, his lack of shooting was exposed with more minutes.

If they can fill those holes, then they have a solid team, one capable of making the playoffs for the first time since LeBron James’ departure.

Then if Bynum can play, they have a chance to be one of the  better teams in the Eastern Conference.

It is too risky for Brown and Grant to depend on the big man.  That’s a risk they can’t afford to make.

JK

Signing Bynum Well Worth the Risk

Less than a week ago, we posted a blog criticizing the Cleveland Cavaliers relative inactivity since the NBA signing period started on July 1st.

Not that Earl Clark won’t help, but that’s not exactly the big splash fans of the wine and gold were looking for.

However, GM Chris Grant has caught our attention, and we are pleasantly surprised.

First, he inked free agent G Jarrett Jack, who we liked when he came in the league as a rookie out of Georgia Tech.  He’s a solid combo guard, averaging 11.0 points and 4 assists per game for his career.

Jack should combine with Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters to form a solid backcourt.  There are 96 minutes per game available at guard, and these three players should be able to divide them up without a significant drop off in production.

He’s a lifetime 45% shooter from the field, and 36% from beyond the three-point line.  He also makes free throws, connecting on 85% since he entered the league.

His last two seasons, he’s averaged 15.6 points and 12.9 points per game.

It is not difficult to see him getting significant minutes for Mike Brown next season.

He was a star in the playoffs for Golden State this year, scoring 17.2 a game, but we caution not to get to carried away with post-season numbers.  His regular season stats speak for themselves.

Then, Grant took a gamble and signed C Andrew Bynum to a two-year contract with only a reported $6 million guaranteed.  An excellent low risk, high reward move.

If Bynum can play, he’s a quality NBA center, who will be just 26 years old next season, and has averaged 11.7 points and 7.8 rebounds per game in his career.

In his one season playing for Mike Brown, the big man scored 18.7 points and grabbed 11.8 boards per night.  That was two years ago.

Unfortunately, that was the last time Bynum played, as he missed all of last season after being traded to Philadelphia with knee problems.

So, the Cavaliers should proceed by thinking anything Bynum gives them will be a bonus.

That means they still have to sort out the logjam at the power forward and center spots, and they still need a small forward.

There were several reports that Grant isn’t done yet, but you have to figure any future moves will come from trades, as the Cavs have only the mid-level exception left (approximately $2.6 million).

You would have to think if a deal is to be made, it will involve one of the big men that the wine and gold are stockpiling.  And if you can parlay one of those guys (Varejao?) for a legitimate small forward, you would have to think long and hard about it.

That doesn’t mean it was a bad signing.  If Grant doesn’t take a chance on the former Laker, then he signs a few more minor free agents which probably don’t make a huge impact on the Cavaliers.

This way, he gets Bynum, who if healthy is a top five center in the NBA and will be with the team for two years.  And if he isn’t the parties can part ways at the end of the season, and Grant is free to pursue someone else.

That’s a win-win scenario if there ever was one.

Grant was patient and seems to have done a solid job.  Here’s hoping he’s still working to improve the 2013-14 edition of the Cavaliers.  The guess here is he is.

JK

 

Cavs Lack of Action Tiresome

It is beginning to seem like the same old song for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

They have multiple picks in the draft, have plenty of salary cap space, are involved in a bunch of trade rumors, and then do nothing.

Yes, we know the off-season is far from over, and there is plenty of time for GM Chris Grant to make big moves to improve his basketball team.  Heck, last season’s biggest trade, that of James Harden to Houston, didn’t occur until a couple of days before the regular season started.

But it seems like the same ol’ song for the wine and gold.

Owner Dan Gilbert publicly proclaimed this was the last draft lottery his team would be involved in after winning the first pick, but right now, the Cavs don’t look any closer to a playoff team than they did the day the season ended in the middle of April.

Grant has accumulated a lot of young talented players, most notably Kyrie Irving, but also Tristan Thompson, Dion Waiters, Tyler Zeller, and new first round pick Anthony Bennett.  Still, they lack a legitimate small forward, and a true center.

You want power forwards?  Then Cleveland should be where you search with Thompson, Bennett, Anderson Varejao, and free agent signee Earl Clark all on the roster.  Obviously, Mike Brown can play one of those guys at center, but they would be out of position.

The problem is year after year, fans are told that the Cavs are acquiring assets, getting draft picks and cap space so they can be a player in major trades, much like the Celtics were when they traded for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen.

With all the player moves made around the league in the past week, the wine and gold sat idle, while supporters called for patience and understanding.

Al Jefferson, a proven NBA center went to Charlotte, the league’s worst team for three years and an estimated $41 million.

Grant’s defenders immediately pointed out it was a bad contract.  On the other hand, the Cavs are paying Varejao $8 million per year to mostly not play.

Jefferson is 28 years old, hasn’t missed more than five games in a season in the last four years, and is a career 16 points, 9 rebounds a year guy.  He will be 32 when the contract ends.  He couldn’t help the Cavs?

Enough of the talk about cap space!  It is meaningless if no one wants to take your money, and if you study free agent movement in the NBA, no high-profile player is coming here as a free agent.

They didn’t when LeBron James was here (although part of that was his fault), and they aren’t going to come now.

The best bet for a big man now is a poison pill contract offer to restricted free agent Nikola Pekovic, a 6’11” center from the Timberwolves.  He averaged 16.3 points and 8.8 rebounds with Minnesota last season, and is one of the leading free agents still available.

There has also been talk of how Dwight Howard’s signing in Houston may make Omar Asik available.  He averaged 10 points and almost 12 boards for the Rockets last season.  He makes almost $15 million next season.

The point here is all of the losing is getting old, and the promises of getting better are even older.

The Cavs need some veteran players to teach and help the young guys to win.  Having a bunch of young players and hoping they will figure it out has only worked once in recent memory (Oklahoma City).

If Gilbert and Grant want to get basketball fans in Cleveland excited, they need to do more than talk.  And they need to make a good move, not just one for the sake of making one.

Cavalier fans are tired of talk.  They want something to get this team back in playoffs not just for 2013-14, but for a while.

JK

Cavs Collecting Talent, Still Need Leadership

The Cleveland Cavaliers surprised quite a few people with the first pick in the NBA draft.

After weeks of speculation about Nerlens Noel and Alex Len being GM Chris Grant’s top choice, the Cavs went with F Anthony Bennett from UNLV at number one.

The question mark on Bennett is whether or not he is a tweener, too small to play power forward and not quick enough to guard small forwards.  He does have an NBA body, measuring at 6’7″ and 240 pounds.  He’s big enough to not get pushed around by older NBA veterans.

On the other hand, looking at him from the offensive end, he could be a match up nightmare for opposing forwards because with his size, he can overpower many small forwards in the league, and if other teams put a power forward on him, he will be too quick for them.

However, he needs work on defense, which he will get from coach Mike Brown.  He reportedly also needs help with his aggressiveness on the boards, which again, the coaching staff will work on.

One question that will need to be addressed with Brown is how well he works with young players.  He didn’t seem to have a lot of patience with guys like Shannon Brown, but he will need to tolerate rookie mistakes from Bennett, and the team’s second first round pick in Sergey Karasev.

Karasev is 6’7″ and can shoot the basketball, given a score of 10 out of 10 in shooting on NBADraft.net.  He is reportedly a good passer and has a good feel for the game, but he needs to get stronger.  It was reported that Grant had coveted him for a while, and the rumor was the Cavs were going to trade up to #13 to get him, but he fell to them at #19.

The problem with the Cavaliers right now is still the absence of a veteran to give guidance to all the young players.  That is a definite need, someone who can teach Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, and Dion Waiters how to win in the NBA.

Also, Bennett was a good player in college, but we don’t feel he was a dominant one.  Last year, Anthony Davis was clearly the best player in the college game.  You can’t say that about Bennett, and if you can’t dominate at the college level, what makes anyone think he can be a great pro.

That’s why we advocated dealing the first pick if at all possible.

Right now, Cleveland has one potentially great player in Irving, and a bunch of other young players who might develop into solid NBA players, or they might not.

And they seem to be collecting guards with Irving, Waiters, Karasev, and second round pick Carrick Felix.  They still don’t have a big man who can put the ball in the basket on a consistent basis.

Perhaps Tyler Zeller will be that player in his second year, but no one can be sure of that.

We realize they still could make a trade or do a sign and trade before the season started.  But right now, it is tough to project this team as the playoff team owner Dan Gilbert said he wanted.

Hate to put a damper this soon on draft night, but if there no more moves for the Cavs, it looks like another long winter for the wine and gold.

JK

 

Grant is Firmly on Hot Seat

With the results for the NBA Draft Lottery being learned tomorrow, it reminds us how critical this off-season is for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who had the third worst record in the league this season.

While many basketball fans in the area are anxious to hear if the wine and gold indeed move up in the selection process, the reality is what do they win if they do get the first overall pick?

Most experts believe this is a very weak draft, meaning no one selected next month can be expected to make an immediate impact on their new team.

Which is the worst case scenario for the Cavs.

GM Chris Grant needs to bring in someone who can help this team contend for a playoff spot in the 2013-14 season.  He brought in Mike Brown to coach the squad, but no matter who great a job Brown does next season, the fact remains that he has to improve the Cavaliers’ record by 14 games, the amount Cleveland was behind the 8th playoff seed in the Eastern Conference, the Milwaukee Bucks.

Yes, several of the Cavs’ young players will improve, mostly meaning the four picks in the last two drafts:  Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, Dion Waiters, and Tyler Zeller.  And the new emphasis on defense will help as well, but the fact remains that Grant needs to add a quality veteran to the mix for the wine and gold to take a quantum leap, record-wise, in ’13-’14.

The best post player available in Kentucky’s Nerlens Noel, who is 6’11” weighs 225 pounds, and is coming off a knee injury.  At his weight, he is unlikely to be ready to play meaningful, productive minutes against experienced NBA big men.  Keep in mind, Noel is 25 pounds lighter than Zeller, who was pushed around a lot last season.

The best wing player is Kansas’ Ben McLemore, who played well in one NCAA tournament game, and disappeared in the rest.  While he may wind up to be a good NBA player, it wouldn’t be a good bet to say that will happen next season.

Why not take a project like these guys if given the opportunity?

First, once again, the Cavaliers need to start winning right away because it is important for the young players not to start developing a losing mentality.  That’s why many teams that inhabit the lottery every year remain there.  The continued losing permeates the organization.

The second reason is that by the time the project starts becoming a legitimate player, his rookie contract has expired.  Therefore, the team has to make the decision to tie a non-proven player up to a long-term contract.

The key word for most of the players who will be picked during the draft is “potential”, and Grant can’t afford to wait for these guys to develop.  He needs someone who can step in to the small forward spot, thus rendering Alonzo Gee to the bench.

They need someone who can play in the post and can score as well.

They have assets to trade.  Grant has four picks in the draft at his disposal and also the wild card could be Anderson Varejao, a very good big man who has had a problem playing at the same time as Thompson.

No matter what happens tomorrow night in the lottery selection or after the actual draft itself, the Cleveland Cavaliers have to be a much improved team.  The pressure is on Chris Grant to make that happen.

JK