A 1-0 Lead And More Thoughts On The Guardians/Tigers Series

We were concerned about the Cleveland Guardians’ offense coming into the American League Division Series against the Detroit Tigers, but they showed us at least in the first inning yesterday.

The first five Guards reached base and all scored as a result of an error, Josh Naylor’s single and Lane Thomas’ three run homer. A 5-0 lead in the first? How sweet was that.

We felt going into the series that Steven Vogt might only need four innings out of his starters, and indeed, Tanner Bibee gave him 4-2/3 frames before giving up a single to Parker Meadows with two out, and the skipper went to the bullpen.

And at least in game one, the relievers were as dominant as they were in the regular season, covering 4.1 innings without allowing a hit.

Cade Smith looked like he did in his big-league debut, striking out all four hitters he faced and Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, and of course, Emmanuel Clase each threw an inning to give the Guardians a 1-0 lead in the series.

Another thought we had about this series is it reminds us of when the Indians took on Boston in the late 90’s, and the Red Sox’ pitching staff was led by Pedro Martinez. Martinez would pitch twice in the series, and you had the feeling Cleveland had to win any game the Hall of Famer would pitch.

Of course, we are referring to the likely Cy Young Award winner this year in the AL, Tarik Skubal. The left-hander will pitch in game two and game five if the series goes on that long.

Skubal isn’t quite Martinez, but he did go 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 192 frames. He hasn’t allowed more than a run in a start since September 6th against Oakland when he allowed two runs on nine hits in 5.2 innings.

Cleveland hitters will have their work carved out for them tomorrow at Progressive Field, particularly if the sun is shining and the late afternoon shadows will descend on the diamond.

The announcement of the roster for this series also caused some eyebrow raising. Although it wasn’t a surprise Nick Sandlin was left off the roster because of his propensity to give up home runs, and Ben Lively didn’t make it because the Guards only need three starters, it is a bit of shock that Alex Cobb will start game three.

Cobb hasn’t pitched in a game since September 1st due to fingernail and blister issues, and if Cleveland loses game two, you are giving him the ball in a pivotal game. Again, we know the Guardians only need three or four innings from a starter, and they will have Gavin Williams and/or Joey Cantillo to back him up, but it’s a bit head scratching.

We have always thought the even numbered games in a short series were most important until you get to the last contest, and tomorrow’s game is no different. If the Guardians can beat Skubal, they have command of the series. We aren’t saying it is won because we remember what happened in 2017.

The pressure will be on starter Matthew Boyd, a former Tiger, to keep the Detroit offense in check and either give the Guardians’ bats a chance to scrape out a run or two or get Skubal out of the game early by making him throw a lot of pitches.

With the off day again on Tuesday, no doubt Vogt will go to his bullpen early again.

All yesterday’s win means is the Guardians will not get swept and there will be two games in Detroit. We would be surprised if the Cleveland bats had another outburst like in game one.

Counting Down The Magic Numbers And What About Cobb?

September baseball is so cool when the team you follow is a contender. Scoreboard watching. Counting down the magic number. It’s all part of following baseball at a time when football is starting to consume the public.

Especially here in northeast Ohio.

With the new playoff set up in baseball, there are several magic numbers to watch. First and foremost, most people look at winning the division, because that’s what fans have been trained to do.

Currently that number is 12. When the two teams behind you play each other, one wants one team to win two out of three, the worst-case scenario is for one team to sweep. But last weekend the Royals swept the Twins, meaning Kansas City picked up ground when the Guardians lost to two of three to the Dodgers.

With Cleveland now holding a share of the best record in the American League, we are sure the Guardians would like to finish with one of the two best records in the league, thus being able to advance right to the Division Series, which is best-of-five, with the Guards have the home field advantage.

Right now, Houston is in first place in the West, and Cleveland is 5.5 games ahead of them. This means the magic number to bypass the Wild Card Series, best-of-three, is 13, with the Astros finishing the regular season with three games at Progressive Field.

And of course, there is another magic number associated with just getting into the post-season “tournament”, meaning the Guardians would be no worse than the sixth seed in the AL, currently held by the Twins, who hold a three-game lead over Detroit and four over Seattle and Boston.

That number would be 8, since Cleveland took the season series from Detroit, 7-6.

The penultimate trip of the regular season was a success if only because the Guardians went into KC, their closest rivals, and took two of three. They salvaged one game in Los Angeles, and then did what had to be done in Chicago against the team that seems in line to shatter the record for losing, which was symbolic for the expansion New York Mets, who famously went 40-120.

Now, there is only one trip left, a three-game trek to St. Louis next weekend. Otherwise, Steven Vogt’s squad spends the rest of their slate at home, but they don’t get any days off until they return from the trip.

That means the pitching staff gets no rest for another week and a half. Because Gavin Williams couldn’t get out of the first last Saturday and Ben Lively took a line drive off the thigh and pitched just two innings Tuesday, and yesterday, Matthew Boyd couldn’t get through the 5th, so the bullpen has been taxed. Again.

And add to that, Alex Cobb’s problems. Yes, he’s pitched well in his last two starts, but he’s also been out with a cracked fingernail and a blister. Can he make some starts on turn in the last two and a half weeks?

We are sure the management would feel better about him in the post-season if he could do just that.

We didn’t anticipate conversations about the playoffs before this season started, but it is certainly fun to have them. Time to enjoy the games AND the scoreboard watching.

Tribe Roster in Flux Already, No Need to Panic

The major league baseball season is a week old, and already the roster of the Cleveland Indians is in flux.

Even though the Tribe were swept in their first home series of the year by the Detroit Tigers, the biggest loss was that of Yan Gomes, who suffered sprained knee ligaments in a home plate collision on Saturday and will be out 6-8 weeks.

GM Chris Antonetti was forced to do some roster shuffling because of Gomes’ injury, as well as a back problem for Michael Brantley that has kept him out of the lineup for all but two games.

If he isn’t ready to play Tuesday night against Chicago, after three days off, he may join Gomes on the DL.

Brantley’s problem along with other teams throwing southpaws at the Tribe, forced the team to bring up OF/1B Jerry Sands, a right-handed bat to help in this regard.

Then after the home opener and Saturday’s debacle for the relief corps, Antonetti and skipper Terry Francona were forced to bring back Austin Adams, set back to active Sands, and also to bring up Shawn Marcum to provide innings in case T.J. House couldn’t provide innings on Sunday, which he couldn’t.

It just goes to show that major league teams really don’t have a 25 man roster, it is more like 30 guys, with all of the player movement between the big club and their AAA affiliate.

However, it’s still way to early to panic and worry, after there are still 156 games remaining.

This series against the Tigers reminded us of a weekend at home against Oakland last May, when the Tribe lost three games by scores of 11-2, 6-2, and 13-3. Everything the A’s hit that weekend either hit a hole or sailed over a fence, much like the Tigers this weekend.

How did the Indians respond last year? They won 5 of their next 6, including a three game sweep of? You guessed it, the Detroit Tigers.

And as for folks saying this year is the same as last, and Cleveland can’t beat the Motor City Kitties, let us remind you that the Tribe beat the Tigers in four of the first five games they played a year ago, and wound up the season at 8-11 against them.

Again, there is a long, long way to go.

Detroit is hitting .364 as a team, and we are fairly confident that won’t continue for the balance of the year. Also, if you want to have success against them, you have to get their first two hitter and the bottom of their order out.

Right now, Anthony Gose has a .450 OBP, Ian Kinsler’s is .480, and Jose Iglesias’ is .625. Lifetime, their figures are .306 (Gose), .344 (Kinsler), and .335 (Iglesias).

To summarize…the Tigers are red-hot and the Indians caught them at the right time.

Also, the Tigers only saw one of the Indians’ top three pitchers, Corey Kluber, and Saturday’s game featured a meltdown by the bullpen, which isn’t normal for Francona’s team.

Many baseball people say you can’t judge a team until the 40 game mark, but we disagree slightly, saying that at the 1/6th point of the season, 27 games, you can start to get a feel for what is going on.

So, relax. This week the Indians have two with the White Sox and three in Minnesota with the Twins.

Just think, a week from now, the optimism felt by everyone going into the season could very well be back.

Yes, Tribe Has Good Young Core, but Can’t Sit Out the Winter

Well, the Cleveland Indians kept it interesting for a little while.

They hung in the race for a post-season spot until the middle of September, but last weekend’s sweep at the hands of the Detroit Tigers means there will not be consecutive post-season spots for the first time since 1999, and it is time to look forward to the 2015 season.

We understand that Terry Francona and the players will not make any changes to the lineup or the starting rotation until the Tribe is officially eliminated from playoff consideration, which probably won’t happen until the weekend, but we can still speculate on what needs to occur prior to spring training in February.

The Indians do have a good young core of players. They can build on several solid position players in Michael Brantley (who will turn 28 next May), Carlos Santana (29), Yan Gomes (28), Lonnie Chisenhall (26), and we believe Jason Kipnis (28) will rebound next year based on his track record and the fact he was battling injuries this year.

They also have Jose Ramirez (23), who has impressed this year since playing everyday after the Asdrubal Cabrera trade, and of course, Francisco Lindor, one of the game’s best prospects.

The organization will likely do the service time game with Lindor, which would be a mistake if he shows in spring training that he is ready to play everyday at the big league level. Too often, the Tribe gets off to slow starts because they don’t keep the correct players on the Opening Day roster.

The starting rotation is also very young with a lot of room to get better. Staff ace Corey Kluber will be just 29 years old in 2015, and he is joined by Carlos Carrasco (28), Danny Salazar (25), T. J. House (25) and Trevor Bauer (24) to form a rotation with a lot of upside.

However, Francona has said in the past that when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more. Therefore, the front office cannot stand pat with the rotation and should look to bring in some reinforcements during the winter. You have to think at least one of those guys will not perform up to this year’s standards next season.

The one area that will need to be addressed in the off-season is the bench, which was a key component of last year’s squad, but had a huge drop off in ’14. We know Jason Giambi won’t likely be back, but GM Chris Antonetti should also look to replace Ryan Raburn and Mike Aviles, both of whom haven’t produced offensively.

Raburn is under contract for 2015, so that may be a challenge, but whenever Francona has wanted to rest a regular or an injury keeps a starter out of the lineup for an extended period of time, there has been a drop off in the offense.

Perhaps David Murphy can fit in as the fourth outfielder if Antonetti comes up with another alternative in right field.

And you really can’t use young players in bench roles because they don’t know how to handle it. It is better to find veterans who used to play everyday that can accept not doing that anymore or guys who have made a living playing in a reserve role.

It is difficult to be productive playing sporadically, and it is a challenge to find guys who can hit while getting 200-300 at bats in a season.

Yes, the Indians future does look bright, or at least it isn’t dismal. However, Chris Antonetti can’t afford to stand pat like he did last winter. They have to improve this club in order to avoid the wild card race and win the American League Central Division.

The bigger question is whether or not they will do just that.

Tribe Still Control Post-Season Fate

It’s been a tough week so far for the Cleveland Indians.

They lost four games to the division leading Detroit Tigers, two of them in excruciating fashion, losing a 2-0 lead in the ninth inning of the series opener on Monday night, and then losing in 13 frames on Wednesday on a Prince Fielder double, 6-5.

Oh, and they also lost Corey Kluber, who pitched 7-1/3 shutout innings on Monday and was having an excellent season to date, for four to six weeks with a sprained middle finger.

They also designated Mark Reynolds for assignment yesterday. Reynolds hit .301 with 8 HR and 22 RBI in April, and since has batted just .187 with 7 HR and 26 batted in. It has been clear for the past month that skipper Terry Francona lost confidence in the former Oriole and Diamondback, so it wasn’t a totally unexpected move.

Many fans, mostly the fair weather football minded ones, are writing off the rest of the baseball season.

To be sure, if the team doesn’t put this week behind them, the Indians will fall out of the race soon and the rest of the summer will be about the Browns and football season.

However, this isn’t the 2011 and 2012 version of the Tribe and Francona is now the manager, so it is doubtful that will happen.

Why? Because the Indians have a lot to play for, namely a berth in the post-season tournament.

Even after the debacle at Progressive Field the past four days, the Tribe is just three games out of a wild card spot, trailing the incumbent Texas Rangers and Baltimore, with the Royals right on their heels.

Keep in mind there are still 47 games left on the schedule, plenty of time to pass both teams.

The upcoming schedule will be tough to be sure. After this weekend series vs. the Angels, Francona’s crew plays 18 of the next 21 games on the road, playing possible playoff teams like Oakland, Atlanta, and Detroit (ugh!) once again. They also visit Minnesota and Los Angeles too, with the Twins visiting for the only three home games in this stretch.

If the Tribe can pull together and play like they had been playing prior to these four games, and there really isn’t reason they can’t, they will have a good shot at a wild card appearance.

Here are some things that could happen in the next couple of weeks–

First, the Reynolds’ assignment could be a precursor to the addition of a bat to bolster the offense. GM Chris Antonetti is said to be looking for another bat, and could make a move soon. Remember, anybody than can bring more production than Reynolds gave the team over the last three months will help the club.

Zack McAllister has not pitched as well since returning to the rotation after his finger injury as he had before he went on the disabled list, and if that continues, don’t be surprised to see Daisuke Matsuzaka get a shot for a few starts.

The former Red Sox pitcher has done very well in the last month at Columbus, and the front office may want to see what he can offer the big club.

There is no question the Tigers’ series was a huge disappointment, but the Tribe can’t and won’t let it linger. They still have a legitimate chance at the post-season.

Now, it’s just a matter of putting up as many wins as they can.

Tribe’s Message to Fans: We Don’t Care about Winning

Perception is reality. This is something the front office of the Cleveland Indians doesn’t understand, or else the fans are exactly correct about the management of the team.

They don’t care about winning.

They can bring out their spreadsheets and flow charts and mission statements all they want, but the perception of the people who buy tickets is that the only folks involved with the Indians who want to win are the players.

That’s their perception, and perception is reality.

The Indians finished below the .500 mark last season, but they were in contention until the beginning of September. The team that won the division, the Detroit Tigers, added a premier free agent, Prince Fielder, to their roster.

The Tribe basically did nothing.

On May 24th, the Tribe beat Detroit to run their record to 26-18 and had a 3-1/2 game lead in the AL Central Division. They still had weaknesses, getting no offense out of 1B, 3B, and LF. The front office didn’t feel the need to add to the roster.

A month later, on June 24th, the Indians record was 37-34, meaning they went 11-16 in the last 30 days. They dropped out of first place, but were just a half game out of first.

The same weaknesses remained and Derek Lowe’s season started to go south. The Indians needed to get some starting pitching along with help to cover up some of the other flaws, but the front office still did nothing to help out a group of players trying to keep their heads above water.

On July 24th, the Indians beat the Tigers to improve their record to 49-48, meaning they went 12-14 over the last 30 days. The dropped to third place, but were just three games of the pace.

The weaknesses remained, but the front office did nothing outside of replacing the 25th man on the roster, replacing Aaron Cunningham with Brett Lillibridge.

It the meantime, the White Sox traded for Kevin Youkilis and Brett Myers, and the Tigers got Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante.

The Indians’ front office claimed it was a slow trade market.

What they are really telling you is that they don’t care about winning.

Whether it’s the ownership holding the purse strings tight, and not allowing president Mark Shapiro and GM Chris Antonetti to add to the current roster, or it’s the executives not feeling this team needs help, the end result is they don’t want to win.

The disinterest has even seeped down to the dugout where Manny Acta seems void of emotion.

Three more blown calls which hurt the Indians were made in the series against the Twins with the skipper glued to his seat.

The one that occurred yesterday was protested vehemently by SS Asdrubal Cabrera, who seemed to be close to an ejection. Acta sat there like a statue while one of his best players argued.

Acta has done a good job keeping a team with more holes than swiss cheese around the .500 mark, but you have to wonder if he’s losing his team because he doesn’t seem to have their backs.

The perception, there’s that word again, is that Acta isn’t fighting to win, he isn’t defending his team.

Look, a manager can’t get kicked out of every game, but every once in a while, he needs to go out and show his team and the umpires that the Cleveland Indians aren’t going to be pushed around.

The entire organization seems slow to react to problems, slow to argue calls, slow to bring in more talent.

Then they wonder why fans are slow to show up to games.

It’s because the message they send is the Cleveland Indians do not care about winning.

Tribe Management Gun Shy?

With last night’s win over the Detroit Tigers, the sixth in seven meeting against the Motor City Kitties this year, the Cleveland Indians are now just three games out of first place in the AL Central.

This means even if they were to drop the last two games of the three game set, they will be only five games out of first place as we hit the last weekend of July. Where we come from, that’s being in the race.

And don’t pay attention to folks who point out all the teams ahead of the Tribe in the wild card race. That might be a factor if this were the beginning of September, but the schedule still has over 60 games remaining, so there is plenty of time to pass all of those teams.

So, why isn’t GM Chris Antonetti making any moves to help a team this close to first place?

It may just be the sins of the past catching up with the organization.

Last year, Antonetti was aggressive going out and getting Ubaldo Jimenez from the Rockies for a slew of top ten prospects in the organization. Although Jimenez pitched well in the series opener last night, that trade hasn’t worked out as well as the GM probably anticipated.

To be sure, the Indians thought Jimenez was a top of the rotation starting pitcher with swing and miss stuff. He would be classified as the #2 starter for Cleveland right now, but he would be lower on most American League teams.

He currently leads the league in walks allowed and is tied for 10th in giving up home runs, never a good combination.

His lack of success may have the front office a little gun-shy go out and obtain another big name guy.

And of course, because of that deal, the Cleveland farm system is not as deep as it was in 2011. Several publications have the Indians ranked in the bottom 10 in all of the major leagues.

Still, there are some positions in the organization where there is some depth, most notably middle infielders (particularly at the lower levels), catchers, and relief pitchers.

Another factor that makes the organization hesitant to trade young players is the success of Brandon Phillips. We are all familiar with then manager Eric Wedge’s non-favorable opinion of the second baseman, which led to his trade, and ultimately a few all-star appearances in Cincinnati.

Cord Phelps is a good example of what happens now. The third round pick in ’08 reached the AAA level in 2010 hitting a combined (with Akron) .308 and an 825 OPS.

Last season, he didn’t hit in a cup of coffee in the majors (he was used sporadically), but put up a .294 batting average and 868 OPS in his time at Columbus. It would seem someone looking for a 2B might be interested, especially since the emergence of Jason Kipnis has made him an expendable commodity.

This year, his numbers have dropped at AAA to a .263 average and a 781 OPS, thus lessening whatever trade value he may have. His career has grown stale.

Maybe the Indians tried to deal Phelps over the winter, but there was no market for him because of his struggles (.155 in 71 at bats in Cleveland last season), but that seems unlikely. There was usually teams looking for middle infielders with a little pop.

Phelps might be able to play, but you never hear his name in the trade rumors which swirl at this time of year.

The Indians can’t afford to be this conservative. They need to trust their talent evaluators and go out and get some players who can help a team very much in the post-season race.

Come to think, maybe that’s the problem. They don’t trust themselves to get the right players. And if that’s true, that’s a bigger problem for the Indians’ front office.