Tribe May Have Some Extra Roster Spots Open

The first week of exhibition play has come and gone, and there haven’t been many surprises for the Cleveland Indians.

As we said coming into spring training, it didn’t appear the Tribe had many open spots on the Opening Day roster, although it looks like two openings have been created since the beginning of camp.

Nick Swisher, recovering from an operation on both knees late last season, hasn’t played in an exhibition game as of yet, and it would seem he is doubtful to be with the team in Houston on April 6th.

That would seem to put Brandon Moss, recovering from hip surgery, in the DH role to start the season, with David Murphy getting the bulk of the time in RF.

And since the Tribe doesn’t need a fifth starter for the first two weeks of the season, meaning Terry Francona can still have eight relief pitchers on a 12 man pitching staff, that would leave an extra spot for a position player, because Tito can carry four bench players.

Three of those spots will be taken by reserve catcher Roberto Perez, Mike Aviles, who can play virtually everywhere, and Ryan Raburn, who is off to a good start in Arizona.

The early favorites for that spot would seem to be two right-handed bats, important because the Indians are a left-handed dominant batting order.

Those two players would be OF Tyler Holt and 1B/DH Jesus Aguilar.

Holt can play all three outfield spots, and play them well, and spent the last six weeks of the season on the big club in 2014, hitting .268 in 71 at bats. He has gone 5 for 11 with three walks to date.

Aguilar struggled in camp last spring after a dominant winter league season, but this year is off to a good start, going 5 for 10 with only one strikeout thus far.

Another candidate would be switch-hitter Zach Walters, but he is off to a slow start, striking out four times in 10 at bats with just two hits. Contact was a huge problem last season for Walters after he came over from Washington in the Asdrubal Cabrera deal.

Pitching wise, a spot opened when Gavin Floyd re-injured his right elbow.

Francona has three starters etched in stone with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. That leaves the fourth spot to be fought for among Danny Salazar, T. J. House, Josh Tomlin, Bruce Chen, and Shawn Marcum.

We leave Zach McAllister out of this conversation because we feel he will take one of the bullpen spots that are available, based on his performance in that role late last season.

Salazar would seem to be the favorite, but he has struggled in his first two starts, allowing five hits and three walks in 3-2/3 innings.

House would appear to be next man up based on how he pitched last season, but keep an eye on Marcum, who has won 58 games in the majors, and won 13 games in both 2010 and 2011.

If Salazar continues to struggle with his command, we wouldn’t be shocked if he didn’t travel north with the major league team.

We realize that there is still plenty of time for more players to impress the management. However, if you don’t have a proven track record, a couple of bad weeks in spring training can cost a player a big league roster spot.

Not Many Roster Decisions This Spring For Tribe

The exhibition season for the Cleveland Indians starts next week, but there really aren’t that many decisions for Terry Francona and GM Chris Antonetti to make in terms of who will make the Opening Day roster.

It’s another reason it should be a good season for the Tribe.

The biggest decision for Francona is deciding whether or not he is going to carry 12 pitchers, or have an eight man bullpen.

If he keeps 13 hurlers, then the three position player reserve spots will go to Mike Aviles, Roberto Perez, and Ryan Raburn or David Murphy, unless the latter is moved during camp. This, of course, assumes that Nick Swisher and Brandon Moss are healthy and ready to go.

The only reason Murphy is still here is insurance in case Moss and/or Swisher aren’t ready to play in April, otherwise, the fact that Raburn hits right-handed, virtually assures he will make the team unless he has a disastrous spring.

If Tito keeps just 12 pitchers, then you may see Zach Walters, who can play both infield and outfield could stick. Or you may see another right-handed bat, like Jesus Aguilar come up with the team.

Either way, at bats will be limited for Murphy and that’s why he’s expected to be elsewhere come April.

As for the pitching staff, the only question in the starting rotation will be is Gavin Floyd’s health. If he is ready, he will take a spot along with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and Danny Salazar.

If not, then T.J. House, Josh Tomlin, and Zach McAllister will battle for the open slot as a starter.

In a seven man bullpen, we know that barring an injury, Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, ageless Scott Atchison, and Mark Rzepczynski are shoo-ins, and you can probably put another lefty, Nick Hagadone, in that class too as he is out of options.

That leaves two spots open and if McAllister isn’t in the rotation, he will be in the ‘pen because he is also out of options and the Tribe doesn’t want to lose his arm. Plus, he performed very well in relief last September.

That would leave the last opening to be a fight between holdovers Kyle Crockett, C.C. Lee, and non-roster invitees Bruce Chen, Scott Downs, and Anthony Swarzak.

Obviously, if Francona keeps eight relievers, then there are two spots open for those guys.

Swarzak is a name to keep an eye on. He’s 29 years old and just two years removed from a season in which he had a 2.91 ERA for the Twins in 96 innings. He and McAllister, if he’s in relief, are capable of giving Tito multiple innings out of the bullpen, as both guys have been starters.

And we know Francona likes to use his relief corps.

The main point here is that’s the only “drama” in camp, the first 21-22 players are pretty much etched in stone, and all the Tribe is looking for is who will fill out the last spot on the bench and in the bullpen.

After years when you are trying to figure out a third of the lineup and half the rotation, it makes for a much more relaxing spring training for Francona and the front office.

Any roster surprises would only occur if one of the players coming back from injury (Swisher, Moss, Floyd) aren’t ready to go.

Tribe Should Get Deal Done with Masty

No one knows how to throw a wet blanket on growing enthusiasm like the Cleveland Indians.

After a September that woke up the interest in the team enough that the wild card game was attended by a sellout, boisterous throng, the front office’s biggest splash this off-season was signing OF David Murphy, who hit .220 for Texas last season.

And now, with the Tribe compiling the sport’s best record in exhibition play and fans looking forward to Opening Day next week, comes the word that talks on a long-term contract with starting pitcher Justin Masterson have broken off.

There are pros and cons on Masterson, the biggest con being that he has spent four years in Cleveland as a starter, and has had two solid seasons (12-10, 3.21 ERA in ’11, and 14-10, 3.45 ERA in ’13) out of those four. The other seasons were 6-13, 4.70 ERA in ’10 and 11-15, 4.93 ERA in 2012.

He’s been inconsistent, although when he has had pitching coaches who stress pounding the strike zone (Tim Belcher in 2011 and Mickey Calloway in 2013), he has been successful.

The other thing you can’t take away from the big right-hander, who just turned 29 years of age, is that he’s an innings eater, throwing an average of 199 innings per season in those four years.

Masterson was willing to sign a shorter term deal with the Indians, which would be club-friendly, but at a fair market value. That way the Tribe would be protected from a long-term commitment.

Our premise is there is nothing bad about a one-year deal because the club is out of it after one season. For example, did the Brett Myers signing really have an adverse effect on the Cleveland Indians? Of course not.

So, a three-year deal even at the reported $17 million per year, isn’t the crippling deal that the Travis Hafner contract became. Hafner’s five-year contract was a bust because of injuries over that span.

A three-year deal is reasonable and manageable, especially for someone with the durability of Masterson.

The fact of the matter is this is the baseball climate the Indians are playing in, and the amount of money the guy who has started each of the last three Opening Days for Cleveland is the market value, whether the front office likes it or not.

Homer Bailey received a six-year contract with Cincinnati over the winter at a similar dollar per year figure, and Masterson’s numbers are comparable if not better.

And most baseball people consider the best starting pitchers on the market after the 2014 season are James Shields, Max Scherzer, Jorge De La Rosa, Jon Lester, and…Masterson.

So, he’s going to get a big deal from someone after this season.

The Indians are still living in the moral high ground concerning free agency, apparently one of the last teams to do that.

They will tell you that Masterson hasn’t proven he can put two solid seasons back to back, and that’s why they can’t make that kind of financial commitment. However, the days of teams paying for past performance are in the past.

Today, teams have to pay based on what’s going to happen over the next three years.

The point is this is the market value for solid starting pitchers. The really good ones (Kershaw, Verlander, etc.) get $22 million per season.

If the Dolan ownership can’t pay the market value for players, then their really isn’t a bright future for Indians’ fans as long as the current ownership is in place.

To have that pointed out once again right before the start of the season is another kick in the teeth for Indians’ fans. And another reminder that an ownership that is unable to pay market value for players should think about selling the team.

Battle For Last Two Spots on Tribe Roster

The Indians made their first cuts of the spring earlier this week, and there were no surprises. The first 12 players sent back to the minor league camp were players who didn’t figure to make the team anyway.

Today, the club announced that Jason Giambi has a fractured rib and will be out for 3-4 weeks, meaning there is another opening on the bench.

If we assume Lonnie Chisenhall starts at third, Carlos Santana is the DH, and David Murphy will start in RF, and the Tribe will open the regular season with 12 pitchers, then there are four spots on the bench.

Mike Aviles and Ryan Raburn, who were both stalwarts in reserve roles for Terry Francona in 2013, will fill two of those spots.

That leaves two spots open with the main candidates being infielders Elliot Johnson and Justin Sellers, picked up from the Dodgers during spring training, and outfielders Jeff Francoeur and Nyjer Morgan.

All four players have big league experience.

Of course, that could change if Francona wants to carry another catcher because Santana will be getting more at bats as a DH.

Johnson and Sellers have made a good impression thus far.

The former, 29 years old, has the benefit of being a switch-hitter and can play 2B, 3B, SS and both corner outfield spots. He’s 7 for 19 with a home run in Arizona to date.

The negative that in parts of four big league seasons, he’s a lifetime .219 hitter with a 592 OPS.

Sellers is 27 years old and is considered to be a better option at SS defensively, although he can also play second base and third base.

He’s 6 for 10 thus far in exhibition play, but lifetime has a .199 batting average with a 579 OPS, although in limited playing time (266 plate appearances)

The two outfielders are much more experienced, although they haven’t performed very well thus far in Goodyear.

Francoeur is 30 years old, and has spent time with the Braves, Royals, and Giants in his career, batting .263 (725 OPS) with 140 home runs.

He’s a solid corner outfielder defensively and has a great throwing arm. His problem has been strike zone judgment. He’s allergic to the base on balls.

He does have a solid history vs. southpaws, with a lifetime .285 batting average and 800 OPS.

Morgan has also struggled a bit in camp, hitting just .200 (5 for 25) and left yesterday’s game with some sort of leg problem. He is now 33 years old and has a career .280 batting average (705 OPS).

He also has a strong platoon split, hitting .297 for his career against right-handed pitchers.

If Francona wants a third catcher, he’ll choose between veterans Matt Treanor and Luke Carlin.

Our opinion is that Francouer will claim one of the spots, basically taking Giambi’s spot on the team, and occasionally spelling Murphy in right field with Raburn perhaps at DH.

The other spot will go to Sellers because of his defensive prowess at SS.

Those are the tough decisions for Francona and GM Chris Antonetti, but they are important because of the way the skipper uses his entire roster.

Just one more thing to keep an eye on in the last two weeks of spring training.

Signing Murphy Another Solid Move

The Cleveland Indians made a wise decision to sign former Texas Rangers OF David Murphy to a two year contract the other day.

Yes, Murphy is coming off a bad season in which he hit .220 with 13 HR and 45 RBI with a 646 OPS in 2013, but if he hit like he has for the rest of his career, his asking price would have been much higher.

Prior to last season, his lowest OPS in any season in which he played 100 or more games was 729. This happened in 2011, when he still hit .275 with 11 home runs.

For his career, he’s a .275 hitter with an OPS of 778. Now, since he played in Texas, an extreme hitter’s ballpark, his numbers could have been inflated, but he hit .284 in Arlington and .266 on the road, not a drastic difference.

To be fair, he did show more power in the Texas ballpark.

We know that Terry Francona likes to platoon if he has two players where it works and he seems to have that with Ryan Raburn and Murphy in right field.

Against right-handers, Murphy is a .280 hitter with a .347 on base percentage and a .469 slugging percentage. That makes him an outstanding offensive player against those pitchers.

Another thing we like about Murphy is that he puts the bat on the ball, striking out around 70-80 times per season every year since 2009. And as an added bonus, in 21 career games at Progressive Field, he hit .365 with 3 homers.

What this move means going forward is that Drew Stubbs will likely not be on the roster after December 2^nd, when teams have to offer players arbitration for next season.

Stubbs, acquired last season in the Shin-Soo Choo three-way deal, gave the Tribe plus defense and speed, but struggled at the plate.

It is doubtful the front office will want to pay him the $3-4 million he would likely get next season to be a part-time player/defensive replacement.

The Indians could also move Stubbs to centerfield and see what interest there is in Michael Bourn on the trade market. While this is unlikely, if GM Chris Antonetti wants to make a big splash in a trade or on a free agent, he would probably have to move a big contract.

Bourn was bothered by injuries, but he also didn’t have a good season, hitting just .263 on the season with an on-base percentage of .316, poor for a leadoff hitter. His OPS also dropped to 676, meaning he was a below average offensive player.

He’ll play next season at age 31, and his game is predicated on his speed, management may take a chance on moving him before his value decreases more.

Again, if Bourn is dealt it means the Tribe is freeing up money for a big time move. Otherwise, look for the veteran to be back in Cleveland in 2014 and leading off hoping to rebound from an off-season.

The next move for Antonetti will likely involve the pitching staff because the Indians have holes to fill in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. You have to believe Terry Francona wants a couple of veterans in those areas to replace guys like Ubaldo Jimenez and Joe Smith.

This isn’t going to be like last winter, when the Tribe signed Nick Swisher and Bourn. But if they keep making solid moves like the Murphy signing, it will be a good hot stove season on the North Coast.