Guardians Need To Find An Alternate Leadoff Man

Former Cleveland skipper Mike Hargrove used to say if you have a leadoff hitter and a cleanup hitter, it was easy to make up your lineup.

With Steven Kwan at the top of the order, Steven Vogt had no problem in that regard, being able to pencil in Kwan at #1 and Josh Naylor in the #4 hole.

In his third year, Kwan was having his best year yet. He had a .373 on base average as a rookie, a season in which the Guardians won the American League Central Division.

After a step back last season (.340 OBP), Kwan was off to a tremendous start in 2024, getting on base at a .407 clip and currently leading the AL in batting average at .353. In addition, his slugging percentage was almost 100 points higher than his career high during his rookie year at .496.

Add in his suburb defense, and some in Cleveland might find this absurd, but Kwan was on track to be an MVP candidate.

Alas, Kwan suffered a hamstring injury a little over a week ago, and so far, Vogt hasn’t found a steady replacement.

You want someone who can get on base consistently (obviously) and unfortunately the next highest on base percentage among the regulars belongs to Josh Naylor, who has we said, is the Guardians’ fourth hitter in the lineup.

Here’s an out of the box thought. David Fry seems to be working his way into more playing time because every time he is in the lineup, he produces. In 87 plate appearances, Fry has 14 walks (to go with 21 strikeouts) and also has a .309 batting average and three home runs.

He’s getting on base at a .437 clip, and he’s also a threat to put you up 1-0 with a leadoff home run. As we said, it’s very unconventional, but the job of the leadoff man is not to steal bases, it’s to get on base.

Besides Fry and Naylor, the only other player on the roster with an OBP over .300 is Andres Gimenez at .307, and his average is that high only because he’s been hit with seven pitches, a total that is second in the AL.

Vogt tried Estevan Florial (34:7 strikeout to walk ratio) initially, and then tried Brayan Rocchio, who is tied for second on the team in walks (with Fry, behind J. Naylor), but neither really did well.

On Sunday, he used Tyler Freeman, who is just 4 for his last 35, but he is among the team leaders in getting on base via walk or hit batsman. He’s led off in the minors, but of course, it’s different at the big league level.

It is obvious that Kwan’s loss has created a huge hole. And not having Jose Ramirez swinging the bat well combined with no Kwan has really bogged down the hitting attack. It has become very home run dependent, something we never thought we would say about the Guardians.

They 5th in the AL in producing round trippers.

While finding a decent leadoff man would help, so would Gimenez and Ramirez starting to hit like they can and very soon.

Hopefully, this is just a slump, and the offense will start producing better very soon. That will be needed if the Guardians want to continue to sit at the top of the AL Central standings.

Viewing The Guards After 27 Games.

The Cleveland Guardians played their 27th game last night in Atlanta, hitting the 1/6th point of the season with an incredible 19-8 record. The Guards were 13-14 last season at this point, continuing a tradition of break-even early season records under Terry Francona.

We are sure even Steven Vogt himself would not have imagined the start this year’s squad is off to, especially after Shane Bieber had two excellent starts and then injured his elbow and will have to miss the balance of the season.

The biggest difference is the offense, averaging over a run a game better than 2023 (5.19 vs. 4.03). Is that sustainable? Only time will tell, but the Guardians are getting better production out of two of their weakest spots a year ago in catcher and centerfield.

Austin Hedges still can’t hit, but Bo Naylor and David Fry have provided more better production. That combo is tied for the team lead in walks with 10 and belted three home runs.

In center, it wasn’t hard to get better hitting with Myles Straw being one of the worst offensive players in the American League, so having Tyler Freeman being a capable bat so far with 3 homers and a 697 OPS is a help.

In terms of WAR (wins above replacement), Cleveland has five spots (1B, 2B, LF, CF, and DH) among the top three in the AL. Last season for the entire year, they had just two: 2B and LF.

Of course, the four mainstays, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez, and Steven Kwan, have remained productive, although Ramirez hasn’t really been hot yet. He is second in the AL in RBIs though.

The Guardians still don’t strike out a lot, 4th least in the league, and they are third from the bottom in drawing walks. But they lead the league in doubles, are tied for second in stolen bases, and are second in the AL in slugging percentage.

We would like to see more walks as the season progresses, and less hit by pitches, another category Cleveland leads the league in.

The primary concern for this team right now is the starting pitching, which outside of Bieber’s two starts has been underwhelming. The great Bill James used to say (probably still does) a pitcher who allowed less hits than innings pitched and struck out twice as many as he walked was a good pitcher.

Based on that criterion, the Guards have one good starter, Ben Lively, and he’s only made two starts due to a late start out of spring training. If the Guardians are going to be serious contenders, they will need a lot more out of the starting rotation.

To date, Cleveland has issued 93 walks on the season, 7th most in the AL. Of that total, 53 (58%) have been issued by Triston McKenzie (17), Carlos Carrasco (13), Tanner Bibee (12), and Logan Allen (11).

Because of that, the starters can’t go deep into games creating a heavy and probably not sustainable toll on the bullpen. McKenzie has only allowed 20 hits in his 22 innings of work, but the walks are just killing him.

Last night, Bibee probably had Cleveland’s best start of the year, going seven shutout frames against a very good Braves’ offense.

Right now, four Guardians relievers (Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Scott Barlow, and Nick Sandlin) rank tied for 3rd in appearances. Vogt has done a good job limiting innings, as Clase leads in innings pitched with 14, but eventually you have to think it will be a detriment to success.

The Guardians’ start is a welcome surprise, and really it has been a total team effort. It’s not like someone has had an unbelievable start. And they have only played three games against the 1962 Mets-like Chicago White Sox.

So far, the improvement is there and there is no reason it cannot continue.

Different Things For Guardians So Far

We all knew there would be a change in philosophy for the Cleveland Guardians when Terry Francona decided he would not be back as manager of the team. We also know that the front office is also deeply involved in the day to day running of the team, so there would be a question of how the change would manifest itself.

So far, the change has worked out very well, as the Guards are off to baseball’s best record at 16-6. Yes, we know the schedule hasn’t actually been loaded with the best teams in baseball, but Seattle and Minnesota were regarded as contenders coming into the season, and the A’s are basically a .500 team when not playing Cleveland.

One change we’ve noticed is the organization isn’t selling out for defense at all costs. Over the last two seasons, Cleveland played Myles Straw almost exclusively in centerfield because of his defense. They did this even though Straw was one of the worst offensive players in the sport over 2022 and 2023.

In 2024, Tyler Freeman has moved from shortstop to be the primary CF, and already has three homers and 11 RBIs, compared to Straw’s single long ball and 29 ribbies a year ago.

New manager Steven Vogt has made a concerted effort to use the entire roster. Through 16 games, every Cleveland player has at least 39 plate appearances save for Austin Hedges, who has 26. Hedges has been in seven contests, but every other player has been in at least 13 games.

One thing that has continued has been versatility. David Fry has already caught, and played 1B, 3B, and LF. Gabriel Arias has played six different positions to date (3B, 1B, SS, 2B, RF, and CF). Being able to play several positions helps a player get at bats.

Another thing that seems different is the earning of at bats by players. With Arias swinging a good bat right now, he has been in the lineup at different positions pretty much every day.

Fry is hitting .303 with a homer and seven runs batted in and a 917 OPS, and Vogt is finding ways to get him in the lineup. Remember last season how Freeman seemed to only play on Sundays?

The bullpen usage has been different too. Francona had a bit of a caste system, certain guys pitched when they had the lead, and others pitched when they were behind. Granted, the Guardians haven’t trailed a lot this year, but Vogt seems to use anyone at any time.

He has said the only reliever who has a set “role” is Emmanuel Clase, otherwise, everyone else needs to be ready.

That said, it seems Hunter Gaddis has earned the most trust from the skipper, and he seems to get the ball in the 8th inning of close games.

Vogt does seem to go to the bullpen if the starter is getting near the end of the line. He removed both Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco with two outs in an inning after they allowed a baserunner.

We understand the thought process, but with the relief corps taking on a huge burden early this year, perhaps give the starter an opportunity to get the last out. However, on Sunday, he did let Tanner Bibee go an extra couple of hitters and he didn’t get the third out and Cleveland had to go to the ‘pen anyway.

Of course, it would help if the starters could go six or seven innings on a regular basis. The walks have plagued the rotation. They’ve issued 51 of the 85 bases on balls given up by the pitching staff to date.

We just wanted to point out some of the changes from last year. It’s not meant as a criticism of Francona, who would admit that every manager likes to do things a certain way.

Right now, Steven Vogt is pushing the right buttons. And the results are in the standings. So far, so good.

The Weird Twists And Turns For Guardians This Year

We don’t think anyone could debate this has been a weird season for the Cleveland Guardians. They were coming off a 92 win season and a playoff appearance, and the front office even signed free agents to fill holes.

It just didn’t work out. The Guardians’ longest win streak all season has been four games, which coincidentally is also their longest losing streak. They just couldn’t build any momentum, either positive or negative all season long.

It was a season filled with weirdness and here were some of the strangest things we saw this year.

1). They carried three catchers most of the season, but started the season with Meibrys Viloria as the third backstop. He was on the roster for the first 35 games of the season, playing in 10 games, accumulating four plate appearances.

Talk about a waste of a roster spot.

2). After years of dominating the AL Central, the Guardians had a terrible time in the division this season, pretty much an explanation for their below .500 record. They won the series vs. Minnesota, ironically, but are just 15-21 against the other three teams who have a combined record of 181-278 (.394).

Weirdly enough, they’ve held their own against the teams likely to play in the post-season in the American League, going 27-24 vs. Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Minnesota, Houston, Seattle and Texas.

3). How about Zach Plesac’s fall from grace. Yes, he didn’t have a good year in 2022, but he still had a 4.31 ERA and allowed 136 hits in 131.1 innings.

This year, he simply imploded, allowing 18 earned runs in 21 innings and was sent to the minors by early May after just five starts, and designated for assignment later on. And to support the organization’s decision, he compiled a 6.08 ERA in AAA.

A far cry from his first two years in the bigs in 2019 and 2020.

4). The 1968 World Champion Detroit Tigers’ had a shortstop named Ray Oyler, who hit .135 for the season in 247 plate appearances. Cam Gallagher only has 142 times at bat, but he’s hitting .130 as the Guardians’ back up catcher, and somehow made it through the season on the big league roster.

He survived even though David Fry came up from AAA and demonstrated the ability to do a solid job behind the plate, and can swing the bat a bit.

5). How many times did Myles Straw, one of the league’s worst hitters with an OPS of 575 with a single home run on the year, bat in the late innings with the game on the line? In high leverage situations, Straw hit .198 with a 500 OPS.

And Terry Francona appeared irritated when asked why he didn’t pinch hit for Straw in these situations.

6). Speaking of Fry, he pitched more innings for the Guardians this season than August 31st waiver pick up Matt Moore. Fry went four innings on a Labor Day blowout loss against Minnesota, and Moore pitched in five games totaling 4.2 innings before being put on waivers again and being claimed by Miami.

7). Emmanuel Clase leads the AL in saves, and likely will do so for the second straight year. He also became the first Cleveland pitcher to have 40+ saves in consecutive seasons.

He also blew 12 save opportunities. He did that despite allowing just 2 home runs on the season. It seemed every softly hit ball against him found a hole, or the team played bad defense behind him.

It didn’t help that Cleveland had so many close games.

We didn’t even go into the voodoo that left-handed pitchers do to the team.

Hopefully, the Guardians don’t add to the strange doings on in the last week of this disappointing season.

Guards Just Keep Getting Bad News.

If the trades made earlier in the week didn’t deal a crushing blow to the post-season hopes of the Cleveland Guardians. Friday’s news didn’t help.

Josh Naylor went on the injured list with a strained oblique and the team offered that he will be out 3-6 weeks, a rather vague length of time. Naylor currently ranks 5th in the league in batting average and third in RBIs, and provided solid protection for Jose Ramirez.

And while we understand the logic of the Josh Bell deal to Miami because the Guards would be on the hook for $16 million next season as Bell was not going to decline his option, the fact remains that the 12th best scoring offense in the AL has now lost two of their five best producers.

Too bad the just acquired Kyle Manzardo isn’t ready to play.

It’s funny that everyone complained about the Guardians not being able to find playing time for some of their young players throughout the first four months of the season, and now, they have nothing but opportunities for them.

One player who won’t be able to take advantage for now is a guy we have clamored to see more of in Tyler Freeman. Freeman also went on the IL with a shoulder issue, and hopefully he will be back before Naylor.

For now, we will likely see a lot of David Fry and Gabriel Arias at first, we guess, with possibly a little of newcomer, veteran Kole Calhoun, acquired from the Dodgers after hitting .297 with a 906 OPS in AAA this season.

Keep in mind though, in 125 games with Texas last season (in the big leagues) he hit .196 with a 587 OPS.

Brayan Rocchio, probably the Guardians’ top prospect will come up and get regular time at SS, we would imagine. A switch-hitter, he batted .291 with a .383 on base percentage at Columbus this season, and we have heard folks complain about his lack of pop this year (he hit 18 homers last year), his slugging percentage is just slightly off from a year ago, because he had 26 doubles and five triples at AAA.

With the DH slot opened up, Jose Ramirez will be able to get off his feet at times, and we would imagine Oscar Gonzalez will get plenty of time there as well. Gonzalez was called up after Cleveland moved Amed Rosario last week, and has gone 6 for 16 since returning to the big club.

Speaking of Rosario, is anyone else amazed that all of a sudden, he can play other positions? If you haven’t noticed, he’s playing second base with the Dodgers. Why didn’t the Guardians move him there? We think everyone would agree the Guards’ defense would have been better had Andres Gimenez and Rosario simply swapped spots.

And lastly, it looks like the club is finally going to see what Xzavion Curry can do with the fifth spot in the rotation. He will start today and stay in the rotation going forward. We believe that decision is about a month too late.

Meanwhile, Cleveland still hovers just 3.5 games out of first in the AL Central.

With the injuries to Naylor and the trades of Civale and Bell, it would seem the chance of defending the division title grows smaller each day, but here we are.

We know the players will keep grinding. But will that be enough. The fact that the team is gritty is probably the biggest reason they were upset with the front office on August 1st.

How Do Young Players Get Time On A Contender? Produce.

The Cleveland Guardians have a conundrum when it comes to playing young players. While conventional wisdom would say you need to give guys coming up from the minor leagues time to fail first, when you are still in a competitive situation, that luxury isn’t there.

We have heard the refrain before and still hear it when it comes to players like Nolan Jones and Will Benson, although the reasons for trading both of those guys were related to the 40-man roster.

The latest young Guardians’ player that engenders this debate is Gabriel Arias. Arias came over to the organization in the massive haul that was the Mike Clevinger deal from the Padres and was rated as a Top 100 Prospect by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus

Arias is a defensive wizard. He is a shortstop by trade, but has shown the versatility to play other positions very well. He played first base in the playoffs a year ago and has been playing quite a bit of right field this season.

However, he’s never been an elite hitter. His career OPS at the AAA level is 768, mostly because he has had issues controlling the strike zone with 188 strikeouts and 64 walks in 806 plate appearances. His OPS for his minor league career is 735.

Those issues have carried with him in the big leagues, where this year he is hitting .187 with a 606 OPS, and 50 punchouts in 154 times at the dish.

By contrast, Tyler Freeman has a career OPS in the minors of 813, carrying a .312 batting average and a 785 OPS in AAA. His credentials say he’s a better hitter than Arias.

Arias started getting some regular playing time starting May 16th and hit home runs in starts on May 18th and 19th, in the latter game it was a dinger which gave the Guardians the lead in extra innings vs. the Mets.

From May 18th through June 3rd, a span of 15 games, Arias went 12 for 40, a .300 batting average with eight walks and eight strikeouts. That’s promising.

From June 4th through today, Arias has received 34 at bats and recorded just three hits (.088) with six walks and 12 whiffs.

As we said earlier, if the Guardians were the Oakland A’s or Kansas City Royals, they could just ride out Arias’ (or any young player’s) cold streaks and hope they come out better for it. They just don’t have that option right now.

A team in contention for a playoff spot needs players who can contribute when called upon. Is that fair? No, it isn’t and frankly, we believe the Guardians’ brass would agree with that.

And make no mistake, with Jose Ramirez still in his prime, the front office should be feeling pressure to win and win now.

Two other young players, Tyler Freeman and David Fry, haven’t had nearly the opportunity afforded Arias, who the organization was trying to create ways to get at bats, but they’ve produced when called upon.

Freeman has only had more than one at bat in consecutive days twice this season, but he’s hit .290 in 62 at bats. Fry has only had more than one at bat two days in a row once but has contributed a big three run HR vs. San Diego and two game winning hits (June 24th vs. Milwaukee and Tuesday night vs. the Braves).

And Fry strikes out a lot too, fanning 13 times in 44 plate appearances.

So we ask, if you were Terry Francona, who would you play when an opportunity arises? That’s what trying to get young players at bats while contending looks like.