Guards Are Winning. Doesn’t Mean There Aren’t Worries.

The Cleveland Guardians have one of the best records in baseball. It depends on the day, but there are times they are the game’s winningest team, but they are in the conversation with the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, and Los Angeles Dodgers.

On the other hand, they are just two games ahead of Minnesota and four ahead of Kansas City in the AL Central, and the schedule is a gauntlet through the end of the year. On this trip alone they play the NL Central leaders in Milwaukee and the Yanks.

Right after Labor Day, they make their last extended road trip of the season, with visits to Kansas City and Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers.

The point is, even with all the success they have achieved this season, there is some worry as to what happens over the next six weeks.

We have been concerned about the starting pitching all season long, and although Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb both pitched well in their last start, it’s still a worry, mostly because they simply don’t pitch enough innings.

Neither of the veterans was able to finish six innings, which isn’t a rarity for the rotation. The last time a Guardians’ starter went six innings was Gavin Williams last Saturday against the Twins, the game that broke the seven-game losing streak.

Since the All-Star break, a period of 27 games (1/6th of a season), Cleveland pitchers have completed six innings just three times. The last game a Guards’ starter went seven? The last game we could find was May 10th, when Carlos Carrasco went that long vs. the White Sox.

We know starters aren’t expected to go nine innings anymore, but pitching six shouldn’t be an anomaly. Yes, the pitching staff ranks 2nd in the AL in ERA, but the reason for that is the bullpen, and right now, Steven Vogt is down to three guys are haven’t started to leak oil–Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and of course, Emmanuel Clase.

Even getting six innings consistently out of a starter is a dream right now.

The other reason for concern is the offense. While pitching wins in the playoffs, you have to score runs in the regular season, and of the teams competing for the league’s best record and in the Central Division, the Guards have scored the least amount of runs.

Right now, the Guardians have the opposite of a top to bottom lineup. Among players with over 150 plate appearances, they have four hitters with above average OPS: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan, and David Fry.

Two of those hitters, Kwan and Fry, have been slumping since the Midsummer Classic.

Kwan had a .352 batting average and 920 OPS in the first half and had us dreaming of the first Cleveland batting champ since Bobby Avila in 1954. So far in the second half, he’s hitting .224 (.291 on base vs. .407 prior) and 646 OPS.

He seems to be hitting a lot of fly balls now, which could mean he is selling out for power? But a return to the hitter we saw before the All-Star game could be dynamic for the Guards’ offense.

Fry made the American League squad on the basis of an incredible April and May, in which he hit .352 with 8 HR and 27 RBI. Since June 1st, he’s batted .216 with 4 dingers and 15 ribbies. He still is killing lefties, with .301 average and 1047 OPS against southpaws.

He has a 666 OPS vs. RHP but continues to bat 5th when he plays.

The problem for Vogt and the organization is they don’t seem to have a lot of alternatives.

Jhonkensy Noel has provided pop, this week hitting three homers, but in the last three games, he’s 0 for 8 with six whiffs. Lane Thomas has been ineffective since coming over from Washington going 6 for 50 with 21 strikeouts.

Daniel Schneemann in the last 28 days: .156 BA and 220/200/420 splits. Will Brennan has hit since coming back from AAA, but he is what he is, basically a singles hitter that doesn’t walk (301 OBP, 391 slugging).

Can the offense find help? Can they score enough down the stretch, or will it continue to be a huge load on the bullpen?

One of the best records in baseball? Yes. That doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns.

The Diminishing Skill Of Getting On Base

When the famed Baseball Abstract came out in the 1980’s, Bill James introduced the concept of OPS, writing that a player was a great offensive player if he could get on base 35% of the time while maintaining a .450 slugging percentage.

The reasoning was the player had the ability to get on base frequently and the slugging percentage measured how the player could advance runners, getting extra base hits, which is measured by slugging.

That made an 800 OPS the gold standard for hitters. That number started to be regarded as the measure of offensive success, but that led to younger baseball analysts thinking players with a .300 on base percentage and .500 slugging percentage were great hitters.

Those players generally tend to be guys who swing for the fences in most at bats, with high strikeout, low walk rates (hence the low on base percentage). Joey Gallo is the poster boy for us, with people telling us Gallo was an offensive force, piling up 800 OPS figures with batting averages of .209 (.333 OBP, 2017) and .206 (.312 OBP, 2018).

We know it is not fashionable to say this anymore, but no one who hits under .220 is a good hitter.

In 2024, the major league average OPS is 714, an on base percentage of .313 paired with a slugging percentage of .401.

Just a few years ago, good teams had several players that fit the .350/.450 model. For example, the 2015 Kansas City Royals that won the World Series had Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Kendrys Morales, and Ben Zobrist.

The 2016 Indians had Jose Ramirez, Tyler Naquin, and Carlos Santana who did it, while Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor were very close.

Right now, the Arizona Diamondbacks lead the majors in runs scored and they have three such batters: Ketel Marte, Jake McCarthy, and Joc Pederson. The Yankees have scored the next most runs and they have just two in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.

We watch the Orioles when they were in town and thought their lineup was pretty solid top to bottom, but they also have only two in Gunnar Henderson and surprisingly Ryan O’Hearn.

This year’s Guardians’ team, 13th in the big leagues in runs scored have just one in Steven Kwan (382/480/862). The next closest is kind of a surprise in David Fry (369/441/810). The Guards are 17th in on base percentage at .310, just below the league average.

The reason for that is that Kwan and Fry are the only Cleveland players who can get on base at a 35% or better clip. Among players with over 200 plate appearances, they do have three hitters who are slugging .450 or better–Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Kwan.

Our point is the Guardians do not have a lot of real good hitters and the offense could be better if they had more hitters who got on base more often. On the other hand, the art of getting on base seems to be on the decline in the sport, and that’s a shame.

As James also said, the game is measured by the number of outs, not a time clock (pitch clock not withstanding). A 1.000 slugging percentage can be achieved by going 1 for 4 with a home run. If you have a 1.000 on base percentage, your team keeps batting in the first inning.

People On The Spot In Second Half For Guards

The All-Star Game is over, and the Guardians contributed to the American League’s victory with an RBI single from David Fry, and Emmanuel Clase’s save, his second in the Midsummer Classic.

It’s back to the regular season grind on Friday night with a seven game homestand against San Diego and Detroit. And we will see a lot of the Guardians at Progressive Field for the rest of the year with 40 of the remaining 69 games at home.

There are key figures for the team in the second half, some with names and others will come to light as the rest of the campaign plays out. Here are some key people and/or situations to watch for starting this weekend:

Gavin Williams is a big key for the starting rotation especially with Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen currently in AAA. Williams missed most of the season to date recovering from an elbow issue which occurred in spring training.

In his three starts so far, he’s pitched 14.1 innings compiling a 3.77 ERA. The first number isn’t good, but the second number is solid. Because he’s still building up from his late start, if he can start giving Steven Vogt at least six effective innings in each start, that will go a long way toward easing the burden off the bullpen.

He’s been throwing in the upper 90’s in his starts, it’s a matter of pounding the strike zone and being able to throw his breaking stuff for strikes.

If that happens, it will provide a huge boost to the starting rotation.

The offense has struggled lately, most because Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez haven’t hit like they have all year over the last week or so. That’s not a criticism, it’s just that they were putting up ridiculous number which probably weren’t sustainable.

Those two and Josh Naylor have been carrying the attack all year. Kwan leads the AL in hitting and Ramirez and Naylor are 2nd and 3rd in the league in RBIs.

Someone has to step up and help. In April and May, that was Fry, who was setting a blistering pace early and came up with big hit after big hit.

Who can emerge in the second half?

Perhaps it’s Angel Martinez. Martinez has made a big impact since being called up, playing several positions and putting up an 850 OPS in just 56 plate appearances. The thing we like about him? He has eight walks and seven strikeouts.

He seems to understand the strike zone and is willing to take walks. That’s a big help when the hits aren’t falling.

The front office is also among the people to watch. The Guardians currently have the best record in the American League. Right now, their path to the post-season is not winning the usually weak Central Division.

They have a chance to get a bye into the Division Series and avoid the best-of-three wild card round. To do that, the front office needs to improve the current roster.

The organization still has a plethora of middle infielders, and they upgraded their farm system by taking Travis Bazzana with the first overall pick in Sunday’s draft, making him the organization’s top prospect.

They did it in 2016 and it paid off with an American League pennant. This group deserves the same consideration especially if it rights itself after the break.

Evaluating The Guards First Half

The Cleveland Guardians have the best record in the American League at 58-37, but kind of limped into the All-Star break losing 11 of their last 18 games. While it’s true that many of the other teams with good records have struggled lately as well, that doesn’t mean all of those teams will rebound.

So, while we are not worried about the Guardians right now, we do have a level of concern. For example, the Mariners had a 10 game lead in the AL West a few weeks ago, and have lost 18 of their last 25, and now the lead is just one.

One of the troubling things is this stretch came against AL Central Division teams and a Tampa Bay squad that is treading around the .500 mark.

The offense, which has scored the 4th most runs per game in the AL this year at 4.78, an increase from 4.09 for all of 2023, hasn’t produced, averaging just 3.4 runs per contest in those 18 games. In that stretch, Cleveland has put up nine runs once, eight runs once, and seven runs twice.

Needless to say, that means there were some droughts, and the Guardians scored three runs or less in ten of the last 18 games. That makes it difficult to win.

The offense isn’t a huge concern because a big part of the problem is Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez aren’t hitting. Over the last 14 days, Kwan is batting .283 (well below his .352 season mark) and Ramirez is hitting .216 with no homers and just one run batted in.

Another all-star, David Fry, is not hitting either, going just 3 for 30 in that span. When one third of your lineup isn’t producing and they are your better offensive players, it’s going to be difficult to put runs on the board.

Steven Vogt has done a very good job in his first year, but let’s face it, things have been going swimmingly so far and this is the first rough patch for the Guardians. What does the skipper and his staff do to get the team righted?

There is an old basketball saying that if you never play your bench, you will never have a bench. We are reminded of this with Vogt’s use of the bullpen this season.

The Guardians need length out of the starting rotation, but Vogt has a quick hook with the starters, sometimes pulling them prematurely. The bullpen is so good it works out, but if you don’t allow the starters to go deeper into games, they are never going to be able to do so.

We would also like to see more stability in the lineup. We get the “beat today’s starter” philosophy, but it seems some of the players who got the Guardians off to their red-hot early pace have fallen by the wayside.

For example, Daniel Schneemann, who got off to a great start after coming up from Columbus is now in the lineup most days despite hitting .185 with a 676 OPS in the last 28 days with 23 strikeouts in 76 plate appearances (30.2% rate). And he’s played some at shortstop (to get his bat in the lineup), and he made two critical errors there over the weekend.

The one rookie who does continue to impress is Angel Martinez, who seems to have a great grasp of the strike zone so far (8 BB, 7 K), and looks very comfortable in the #2 hole. We would find an everyday spot for him right now.

As for Fry, it could be that he is overexposed a bit and needs to go back to a platoon role where he plays mostly against southpaws.

The influx of young players could be due to the front office wanting some extended looks at players before the trading deadline. So, the herd could be thinned when the calendar turns to August.

When the season resumes on Friday, the Guardians should have a bit of a sense of urgency to get things turned around quickly.

On the other hand, Cleveland has 40 of its remaining 67 games at Progressive Field, including 16 of the last 19 contests. That could be a big advantage down the stretch.

Five All-Stars, But Another Starter Sent To The Minors

The Cleveland Guardians have one of the best records in the American League to date, so it figures they would be well represented on the AL All-Star team.

The Guardians are sending five players. Jose Ramirez and Emmanuel Clase are kind of perennials, with Ramirez making his sixth mid-summer classic, and Clase has now made three in a row.

With his .364 batting average and 956 OPS, Steven Kwan was a shoo-in to be named to the team, and it was a bonus that he was elected as a starter, meaning Cleveland will have two starters as Ramirez will also be in the starting lineup.

Josh Naylor was picked for the first time, although he was probably snubbed a year ago when he was hitting .305 with 11 homers and 64 RBIs at the break. This season he has even more ribbies (3rd in the AL with 66) and has already set a new career high in circuit clouts with 21.

The biggest surprise was David Fry, who started the season as basically a platoon player, but has put up tremendous numbers with a .305 batting average (920 OPS), 8 HR and 33 RBIs. The super utility player came into the 2024 season with 113 big league plate appearances, and has already caught, and played 1B, 3B, LF, and RF for Steven Vogt this season.

Even with the good news regarding the honoring of several players, the Guardians made another move involving their starting rotation over the weekend.

Logan Allen was sent back to AAA after compiling a 5.67 ERA over 18 starts. Allen allowed 100 hits and 35 walks over the 87.1 innings he has thrown this season, and has given up 18 home runs, tied for third most in the AL (FYI, Triston McKenzie is 2nd in this department).

Because of ineffectiveness or injury, the Guardians are now without three of the pitchers who began the year in the starting rotation. Based on that, it has to be considered rather amazing that the Guards sit at the top of the Central Division standings.

Since the All-Star game is next week and teams are off through next Thursday, it will allow both Allen and McKenzie to get an extra start in AAA before they are needed after the San Diego series coming out of the break.

It gives the organization a chance to regroup, so to speak, and the only immediate question will be who starts Thursday afternoon in Detroit, which would be Allen’s turn.

Gavin Williams gave the team 5.1 innings last night, and if Ben Lively and Tanner Bibee can give the team length tonight and tomorrow, this could be the scenario for Thursday.

We could see a combination of Pedro Avila and newcomer Spencer Howard in the series’ finale. Howard, a right-hander, was picked up over the weekend from San Francisco, after posting a 5.63 ERA in 24 innings with the Giants.

For his career, he has a 6.93 ERA in 139 innings, allowing 170 hits in those frames, so let’s just say we are less than enthusiastic about the move. Even worse, in his only AL experience with Texas, he posted an 8.37 ERA.

On June 24th, he did pitch 4.2 innings against the Cubs, not allowing a run and fanning eight, so there’s that.

Let’s hope the organization can find something that works for him, but they may have dealt for him with the idea of getting the team through the all-star break.

Some Changes Looming For Guards After a .500 Trip?

The Cleveland Guardians are coming off a solid trip. It seems like their early season success have some fans panicking when they lose a series, but they came off the eight game sojourn to three cities at .500, and that is just fine.

By the way, a quick look at the schedule shows Cleveland will play 40 of their last 60 games after the All-Star break at home. That’s a lot.

On a break-even trip, a couple of warts have shown up. The Guards are struggling a bit vs. left-handed pitching, partially due to David Fry returning to normal human being status (he’s “down” to a .356 batting average against them) and lately, Steven Vogt has taken to playing both Gabriel Arias and Austin Hedges against them, and that’s leaving the lineup two hitters short.

We may also be seeing the beginning of the end as a starting pitcher for veteran Carlos Carrasco. Since returning from his neck spasms, he has made three starts, totaling 13.2 innings, allowing 12 earned runs on 17 hits.

We understand there aren’t many alternatives for the organization until Gavin Williams is ready to go (he threw just 53 pitches in his last rehab start), but we don’t know how you can give Carrasco another start. Perhaps you swap roles with Pedro Avila, who did throw 43 pitches in an outing on June 8th.

Or try Xzavion Curry again, although he has an ERA over 7.00 at AAA. There is no question starting pitching is the Guardians’ biggest need, and it’s a need that will be very difficult to correct. But sending Carrasco out for another start seems to be a wish on the organization’s part.

We also wonder if Kyle Manzardo might get sent back to Columbus to get every day at bats. Daniel Schneemann has been a hitting machine since getting called up, collecting nine hits in 24 at bats, including four extra base hits, and has walked five times.

Manzardo hasn’t been bad but has gone 3 for 20 over the last two weeks, since Schneemann has usurped some of his at bats. This is not writing Manzardo off. Plenty of players get called up and sent down once or even twice before sticking at the big-league level.

However, clearly playing once or twice a week isn’t helping the rookie find a rhythm at the plate.

If Manzardo goes back to the minors, it would mean Johnathan Rodriguez would likely stay as a right-handed outfield bat. He could platoon with Will Brennan in RF or be the DH vs. lefties, where Gabriel Arias has been recently.

Here’s something to keep an eye on: Juan Brito has started to play 1B at Columbus, increasing his versatility. Brito is 22 for 64 vs. lefties (.344 average, 1018 OPS) with 3 HR and 10 walks.

Usually, a position charge means the front office is trying to see if a player can fit on the big-league roster. Overall, Brito, a switch-hitter (adding more versatility) is hitting .249 with an 801 OPS after a slow start.

He also fits in with his strikeout to walk ratio for the season, which is 49 Ks and 49 BBs.

The Guardians are sitting at 44-25, but the organization isn’t going to be complacent with this team. Just wondering if some roster tweaks are coming.

Do Guardians Really Need A Shortstop? Not So Fast

As the calendar turns to June, the Major League Baseball trading deadline is now less than two months away. And with the Cleveland Guardians off to a tremendous start, speculation has started as to what the front office will be targeting at the July 30th deadline.

It doesn’t take in depth analysis to realize the Guardians need starting rotation help, although you could say that with most contending teams.

Obviously, losing Shane Bieber after two starts was a huge blow, and not having Gavin Williams to date, has really wiped out 40% of the rotation. Williams is making progress, making a rehab start last week, and perhaps he can be back before July 1st.

Still, although Tanner Bibee has been very good (4-1, 3.74 ERA) he is averaging less than 6 innings per start. The same is true of the other rotation pieces, Triston McKenzie and Ben Lively.

This is put a heavy toll on the bullpen, which has been the strength of the team. The list of the top ten in the American League in appearances features four pitchers wearing Cleveland uniforms: Emmanuel Clase is tied for the league lead with 30. Hunter Gaddis and Nick Sandlin are tied for fourth at 29, and Scott Barlow is tied for 7th at 28.

Add in Tim Herrin with 27 games and rookie Cade Smith with 25. So far, no one has lost effectiveness, but you would hate to get into August and have the relief corps suffer a downturn.

The other position that comes up is shortstop. However, if you look at WAR, the Guardians’ weakest positions have been RF and catcher. The rightfield issue may sort itself out as we wouldn’t be surprised if David Fry starts getting more playing time there now that Stephan Kwan has returned.

We have written about Fry before, and when you are hitting .355 with an OPS of 1128, your manager is going to figure out how to get you in the lineup.

Brayan Rocchio doesn’t have a lot of pop, and we are sure people look at his .203 batting average and say he has to be replaced. But looking inside the numbers, you see that Rocchio is tied for second on the team in walks with 23, behind only Fry with 24.

So is on base percentage is .308, which is the American League average. And Rocchio has been more than adequate defensively, which is important because first and foremost, shortstop is a defensive position.

Let’s not overlook the Guardians’ excellent start and the way the hitting has produced runs certainly buys Rocchio more time.

And we have always said this. If Cleveland was having problems producing offense, then Rocchio would certainly be under more scrutiny. But they are winning and scoring.

We have also always felt that good lineups need seven solid bats in the batting order to be productive. The league average OPS is 699 right now, and the Guards have five hitters over that figure, but over the last month, Tyler Freeman is close at 694.

We are willing to give Rocchio more time, especially because he has an acceptable strikeout/walk ratio, meaning he is not getting dominated by opposing pitchers.

If you are asking, we would add pitching first and foremost, because we agree with former skipper Terry Francona, when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.

We would rank the trade targets this way: 1). Starter 2). Reliever 3). Starter…….4). shortstop.

Six weeks from now, we may sing a different tune.

Fry Gets A Chance And Makes The Most Of It

In sports, like life, sometimes you only get one opportunity to do something to change everything. You can take advantage of the change or fail to do so, and it makes all the difference.

Every year, sports fans want players to get opportunities and if they don’t succeed right away, they want the teams involved to continue to give the player a shot, but most franchises need and want to win, so it is tough to give someone who isn’t getting the job done more chances.

There is no doubt that if the team is winning, young, struggling players get more of a shot. For example, Brayan Rocchio isn’t hitting right now (565 OPS), but the Guardians are winning, so there isn’t pressure on Steven Vogt and the front office to make a change at shortstop.

And other times, the player simply isn’t ready. There are Cavs’ fans clamoring for rookie Emoni Bates because he is supposed to be a good three-point shooter, but Bates doesn’t do much of anything else right now, so no coach of a playoff team is going to put him on the court.

Back to the Guards, no one has taken advantage of his opportunity more than David Fry, who is working on getting more and more playing time the old-fashioned way. By earning it.

Fry has 103 plate appearances on the season, ranking in a tie for 9th on the team, but he has a 1010 OPS with 4 homers, 16 RBIs, and 18 walks for the season. Frankly, his production is forcing Vogt to put him in the lineup more often, which the skipper is doing.

It helps that Fry can play a number of positions. He can catch, and has seen time at 1B, LF, and 3B.

He didn’t get a call up until last season at age 27, but his minor league numbers are pretty good. He has an 815 OPS in AAA, getting on base at a .347 clip and slugging .468. His first year in the Cleveland organization (2022), he had a 779 OPS and raised that a year ago before his call up to 946.

Fry was in the Opening Day lineup because a southpaw was on the mound for Oakland and he went 3 for 4 with a double and an RBI, and started the next day and went 1 for 2 with two walks. In his next start a week later, he belted a three run HR to beat the Twins.

Had he gone 0 for 9 in those games with five strikeouts, would Vogt have given him more chances? Ultimately, of course, but it was easier to find him at bats because he was getting hits.

He has destroyed lefties, hitting .424 and a 1426 OPS, but has held his own against righties, batting .300 with an 819 OPS.

No doubt a good deal of his success has been predicated on controlling the strike zone. Fry is second on the team in walks despite his relatively few at-bats, so by and large, he isn’t swinging at bad pitches, in effect, getting himself out.

That’s how you do it. You get a chance and do something with it. Many, many years ago, there was a young player put into the lineup because a veteran player needed a day off. The young player didn’t come out for over 2000 games.

We aren’t suggesting David Fry is Lou Gehrig. But he is taking advantage of his opportunity. And that’s the way it should be.

Guardians Need To Find An Alternate Leadoff Man

Former Cleveland skipper Mike Hargrove used to say if you have a leadoff hitter and a cleanup hitter, it was easy to make up your lineup.

With Steven Kwan at the top of the order, Steven Vogt had no problem in that regard, being able to pencil in Kwan at #1 and Josh Naylor in the #4 hole.

In his third year, Kwan was having his best year yet. He had a .373 on base average as a rookie, a season in which the Guardians won the American League Central Division.

After a step back last season (.340 OBP), Kwan was off to a tremendous start in 2024, getting on base at a .407 clip and currently leading the AL in batting average at .353. In addition, his slugging percentage was almost 100 points higher than his career high during his rookie year at .496.

Add in his suburb defense, and some in Cleveland might find this absurd, but Kwan was on track to be an MVP candidate.

Alas, Kwan suffered a hamstring injury a little over a week ago, and so far, Vogt hasn’t found a steady replacement.

You want someone who can get on base consistently (obviously) and unfortunately the next highest on base percentage among the regulars belongs to Josh Naylor, who has we said, is the Guardians’ fourth hitter in the lineup.

Here’s an out of the box thought. David Fry seems to be working his way into more playing time because every time he is in the lineup, he produces. In 87 plate appearances, Fry has 14 walks (to go with 21 strikeouts) and also has a .309 batting average and three home runs.

He’s getting on base at a .437 clip, and he’s also a threat to put you up 1-0 with a leadoff home run. As we said, it’s very unconventional, but the job of the leadoff man is not to steal bases, it’s to get on base.

Besides Fry and Naylor, the only other player on the roster with an OBP over .300 is Andres Gimenez at .307, and his average is that high only because he’s been hit with seven pitches, a total that is second in the AL.

Vogt tried Estevan Florial (34:7 strikeout to walk ratio) initially, and then tried Brayan Rocchio, who is tied for second on the team in walks (with Fry, behind J. Naylor), but neither really did well.

On Sunday, he used Tyler Freeman, who is just 4 for his last 35, but he is among the team leaders in getting on base via walk or hit batsman. He’s led off in the minors, but of course, it’s different at the big league level.

It is obvious that Kwan’s loss has created a huge hole. And not having Jose Ramirez swinging the bat well combined with no Kwan has really bogged down the hitting attack. It has become very home run dependent, something we never thought we would say about the Guardians.

They 5th in the AL in producing round trippers.

While finding a decent leadoff man would help, so would Gimenez and Ramirez starting to hit like they can and very soon.

Hopefully, this is just a slump, and the offense will start producing better very soon. That will be needed if the Guardians want to continue to sit at the top of the AL Central standings.

Viewing The Guards After 27 Games.

The Cleveland Guardians played their 27th game last night in Atlanta, hitting the 1/6th point of the season with an incredible 19-8 record. The Guards were 13-14 last season at this point, continuing a tradition of break-even early season records under Terry Francona.

We are sure even Steven Vogt himself would not have imagined the start this year’s squad is off to, especially after Shane Bieber had two excellent starts and then injured his elbow and will have to miss the balance of the season.

The biggest difference is the offense, averaging over a run a game better than 2023 (5.19 vs. 4.03). Is that sustainable? Only time will tell, but the Guardians are getting better production out of two of their weakest spots a year ago in catcher and centerfield.

Austin Hedges still can’t hit, but Bo Naylor and David Fry have provided more better production. That combo is tied for the team lead in walks with 10 and belted three home runs.

In center, it wasn’t hard to get better hitting with Myles Straw being one of the worst offensive players in the American League, so having Tyler Freeman being a capable bat so far with 3 homers and a 697 OPS is a help.

In terms of WAR (wins above replacement), Cleveland has five spots (1B, 2B, LF, CF, and DH) among the top three in the AL. Last season for the entire year, they had just two: 2B and LF.

Of course, the four mainstays, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez, and Steven Kwan, have remained productive, although Ramirez hasn’t really been hot yet. He is second in the AL in RBIs though.

The Guardians still don’t strike out a lot, 4th least in the league, and they are third from the bottom in drawing walks. But they lead the league in doubles, are tied for second in stolen bases, and are second in the AL in slugging percentage.

We would like to see more walks as the season progresses, and less hit by pitches, another category Cleveland leads the league in.

The primary concern for this team right now is the starting pitching, which outside of Bieber’s two starts has been underwhelming. The great Bill James used to say (probably still does) a pitcher who allowed less hits than innings pitched and struck out twice as many as he walked was a good pitcher.

Based on that criterion, the Guards have one good starter, Ben Lively, and he’s only made two starts due to a late start out of spring training. If the Guardians are going to be serious contenders, they will need a lot more out of the starting rotation.

To date, Cleveland has issued 93 walks on the season, 7th most in the AL. Of that total, 53 (58%) have been issued by Triston McKenzie (17), Carlos Carrasco (13), Tanner Bibee (12), and Logan Allen (11).

Because of that, the starters can’t go deep into games creating a heavy and probably not sustainable toll on the bullpen. McKenzie has only allowed 20 hits in his 22 innings of work, but the walks are just killing him.

Last night, Bibee probably had Cleveland’s best start of the year, going seven shutout frames against a very good Braves’ offense.

Right now, four Guardians relievers (Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Scott Barlow, and Nick Sandlin) rank tied for 3rd in appearances. Vogt has done a good job limiting innings, as Clase leads in innings pitched with 14, but eventually you have to think it will be a detriment to success.

The Guardians’ start is a welcome surprise, and really it has been a total team effort. It’s not like someone has had an unbelievable start. And they have only played three games against the 1962 Mets-like Chicago White Sox.

So far, the improvement is there and there is no reason it cannot continue.