Why Tribe Needs To Deal A Starter.

After the Cleveland Indians dealt Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso in separate deals last week, there were many who felt the Tribe no longer needed to deal a starting pitcher.

We don’t feel that way.

We still believe a starter, either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, will be moved before spring training (probably before the end of the calendar year) to clear out more money and to bring some young, controllable bats to the Cleveland lineup.

As it stands right now, the Indians lineup isn’t that strong. Here is a projected batting order for Opening Day–

Carlos Santana DH
Francisco Lindor SS
Jose Ramirez 3B
Jake Bauers 1B
Jason Kipnis 2B
Jordan Luplow RF
Tyler Naquin LF
Roberto Perez C
Leonys Martin CF

Is that lineup good enough to win 85 games, let alone 90? That’s up for debate to be sure.

And while the Cleveland rotation would be the best in the game, in the regular season, you need to score runs to win. The only team that reached to post-season in 2018 that didn’t finish in the top five of their respective league in runs scored was the Milwaukee Brewers, who were 7th.

In the post-season, pitching can and usually does dominate. But you have to score runs to get there, and right now, we aren’t convinced the Tribe has enough firepower.

It seems like much of the talk recently is about Kluber, and we are sure the “jokes” about trading a two time Cy Young Award winner will be plentiful.

However, if you can move the right-hander and his $17 million salary for 2019, and get a bat or two, or perhaps a bat and a reliable bullpen arm in return, doesn’t that lengthen the lineup?

And that’s exactly want the Indians need.

Let’s say Kluber is moved to Cincinnati for a package centering around top ten prospect, Nick Senzel, who would play third for Cleveland and is major league ready, OF Scott Schebler (who we don’t really like, but…) and reliever Amir Garrett.

With the money saved by dealing Kluber, the Cleveland front office signs Nick Markakis as a free agent on a one year deal. Suddenly, the Tribe lineup looks like this–

Santana DH
Senzel 3B
Ramirez 2B
Lindor SS
Markakis RF
Luplow LF
Bauers 1B
Perez C
Martin CF

And you would have Kipnis as a platoon player in left field and Greg Allen to play center against left handed pitching. If Senzel is the player everyone thinks he is, you now have a lineup that has more length, and should score more runs.

We don’t think something like this is possible without moving a starting pitcher. Perhaps the front office can be super creative and pull off a miracle, and we would love to see that.

Besides, your starting rotation would still be Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, and a mix of Adam Plutko, Cody Anderson, or perhaps Danny Salazar.

That’s good enough to get the Indians into the post-season, and once you get there, you only use four starters anyway.

It doesn’t have to be the Reds, certainly the Dodgers are a possibility and other teams as well. But, people who think the Indians only need one bat are delusional in our opinion, they need at least two.

The other way we see to make that happen in to deal from strength, and that means a starting pitcher.

We think the Tribe front office thinks the same way.

Reflecting On Kluber’s Magnificence

The Cleveland Indians lost the American League Division Series about a month ago, and it still is a disappointment, not in the team, but considering how well the Tribe was playing going into the post-season, we all fantasized about winning the World Series.

That feeling should not make everyone overlook the fact the Indians won 102 games, the second highest total in franchise history and had the best record in the American League.

They have four finalists for the Gold Glove. SS Francisco Lindor is trying to win his second in a row, and he is joined by Jose Ramirez at third base, Carlos Santana at first, and Yan Gomes behind the plate in finishing in the top three in the voting.

Yesterday, more accolades came the Indians’ way.

Terry Francona is a finalist for AL Manager of the Year, an award he has won twice before, in 2013 and 2016.

Jose Ramirez is second Tribesman in the last four years (Michael Brantley in 2014) to finish in the top three of the MVP voting. Ramirez had a remarkable season, setting career highs in every major statistical category save for stolen bases.

However, the highest honor will probably go to Corey Kluber. Kluber should become the first Indian pitcher to win two Cy Young Awards during his tenure with the Indians, capping a season in which he went 18-4 with a 2.25 ERA and 265 strikeouts in 203 innings.

He would be the 19th pitcher in the history of the award (started in 1956) to win it multiple times.

It will also mean that Kluber will have finished in the top three for this award three times, finishing third a year ago.

There are four dominant starting pitchers in the sport right now: Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Kluber.

In the past four years, the right-hander has led in the AL in wins twice (’14 and ’17), in complete games twice (’15 and ’17), in shutouts the past two seasons, and in ERA this past campaign.

He has finished in the top four in strikeouts each of the past four seasons, and has ranked first or second in pitchers’ WAR in three of the past four years.

Kluber’s career WAR total (according to BaseballReference.com) is now at 26.9. Consider the franchise’s all time leaders among pitchers in this category:

Bob Feller    63
Stan Coveleski    51
Bob Lemon 48
Mel Harder 43
Addie Joss 43
Sam McDowell    41
Early Wynn 39
George Uhle 37
Wes Farrell    36
Willis Hudlin 33

With a season with a WAR of six next season (that was Kluber’s 2016 season), he would tie Hudlin for the 10th highest total in club history. And he would have done it in a five year span.

It would not be a reach for Kluber to wind up as high as 4th in Tribe history among hurlers, behind the Indians’ Hall of Fame triumvirate of Feller, Coveleski, and Lemon.

If he wins in 2017, keep in mind there are only nine pitchers (could be a 10th if Scherzer wins this year) to win three or more Cy Youngs.

And those pitchers are a who’s who of the greatest pitchers in the last 60 years: Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, Greg Maddux, Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez, Jim Palmer, Tom Seaver, and Kershaw.

He won’t turn 32 until early next season (April 10th).

That’s a historical perspective on Kluber, who will find out next week if he will be recognized once again as the best pitcher in the AL.

It’s been a remarkable four years indeed.

Tribe Needs to Look at Ticket Prices

There is no question that the Cleveland Indians alienated their fans for the past several seasons.

After the 2007 season in which they missed the World Series by just one game, they acted like someone was going to tell them it was their turn to win someday, so they could be inactive.

They traded two Cy Young Award winners in C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee, and traded a professional hitter who said he wanted to stay here in Victor Martinez. All three were gone by the time the 2009 season ended.

Later, after a 2011 season is which they were surprisingly in contention until Labor Day, when the Detroit Tigers finally got hot and ran away, they were inert in the off-season following, setting up a 2012 campaign where they were depending on players like Shelley Duncan, Casey Kotchman, and Derek Lowe.

To be fair, they did deal two top pitching prospects for Ubaldo Jimenez at the deadline in ’11, but that move hasn’t worked out the way GM Chris Antonetti wanted. The fact it hasn’t worked out for Colorado is of little consolation.

However, last winter, the ownership seemed to get the message that the fan base was unhappy with the way things were being run. After Travis Hafner’s large deal finally ended, the front office went out and signed Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn to multi-year contracts.

Unfortunately, the people who buy tickets seem to be holding a grudge because the Tribe ranks last in the American League in attendance.

While many fans obviously have a wait and see attitude regarding this team, it is a better team and while they struggled mightily at the beginning of June, they have ripped off eight wins in the last 12 games and currently sit just four games behind the mighty Tigers in the AL Central.

And they are very good at home.

Whether or not the Indians can make the playoffs isn’t the issue because the American League is very strong. Heck, all five teams in the AL East are above the .500 mark.

We said at the beginning of the season that 13 of the 15 teams in the AL had legitimate chances to get to the post-season, and yes, the Tribe was one of those teams.

So where are the fans?

This is a city with blind loyalty to the Browns, a team with two winning seasons since 1999. In that same time period, the Indians have had five such seasons, making the playoffs three times.

We checked the prices for the next home series for the Tribe when they come home from this trip to Baltimore, Chicago, and Kansas City. They take on the Tigers on July 5^th, 6^th, and 7^th.

Seats in the upper deck and the bleachers are being sold for $23.60 apiece for the Friday night game. Meaning it costs almost $100.00 for a family of four to attend.

In order to sit behind home plate, it will cost you $80.00 for a single seat.

If the Indians want families to go to the games, they are making it tough, particularly when the fortunes of the team have soured a lot of baseball fans in Cleveland.

The Tribe did the right thing in lowering the cost of concessions in the off-season, but it doesn’t do much good if they don’t get people to make the trip to Progressive Field.

Perhaps it is time to look at the ticket prices as well. Lower them so people will want to see what the new Indians are all about.

The prices might be lower than many franchises, but apparently they are still too high for the fan base.

Whatever the reason, the front office needs to look at why fans aren’t clicking the turnstiles.

Tribe Needs to Start Over on Mound

When Larry Dolan bought the Cleveland Indians, he and his new GM Mark Shapiro made a statement that would change the direction of the franchise.

They were going to build the team around pitching.

How’s that working out for them?

In the last 11 seasons that Shapiro has run the organization, the Tribe has had a few dominant starting pitchers, including three Cy Young Award winners, two won with the Indians (C.C. Sabathia in 2007 and Cliff Lee in 2008), and one elsewhere (Bartolo Colon in 2005).

Since the trades of Sabathia and Lee for little return (that’s a subject for another day), the Tribe has struggled to find effective starting pitching.

A good way to find an effective starter is to look at his hits to innings pitched ratio and his strikeout to walk ratio. If they’ve allowed fewer hits than innings and struck out twice as many as they’ve walked, then they are good pitchers.

Since trading Lee in 2009, Cleveland has had just two pitchers accomplish this feat, both last season. They would be Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin.

So, looking at 15 regular starters (five per year for three years), only two hurlers can be viewed as being solid starters.

Keep in mind that Tim Belcher was the Tribe pitching coach in 2011.

So, the Indians don’t have any pitchers that can throw strikes, and they don’t have anyone with good enough stuff to overcome that.

Going forward, would you blame the front office is they cleared the decks and brought it five new starting pitchers?

Masterson looks to have good stuff, and may be worth salvaging, but does he have the mental toughness to be a starter on a good team? Certainly his joking with Tigers’ slugger Miguel Cabrera after allowing a home run to him has to raise some eyebrows in the front office.

As for Ubaldo Jimenez, he’s another who doesn’t appear to be mentally tough enough to be a starter on a contender. Perhaps it is because his mechanics are a mess, so he’s lost confidence, but it’s tough to imagine putting him out on the mound 35 times next season.

Zack McAllister throws hard and for the most part is around the strike zone. He’s probably the only starter who should be in next year’s rotation for sure.

Carlos Carrasco also has a leg up if he’s healthy. Remember, he had a very good run last season before his elbow started to hurt, going 4-2 with a 1.90 ERA in June.

The sinker ball theory this organization has trotted out in recent years leaves too much room for error. Groundballs find holes, and if mixed with walks, allow runs to score.

If you make your living getting guys to hit the ball on the ground, you must have good control.

It’s another failed experiment for the Indians.

Shapiro and GM Chris Antonetti seem to run the Tribe as a 7th grade science project, trying different things that may cost less money and still allow the team to win.

You have to get pitchers who can strike people out. That’s a tried and true way to win baseball games.

Sure, you can have a sinkerball/control type pitcher who can win, but name pitchers like that who are good on a consistent basis.

Whether they get them in trades, or develop them in the draft, the pitching isn’t going to get better unless the front office gets some guys with swing and miss stuff.

Guys like Colon, Sabathia, and Lee.

It’s another case of the Indians’ organization selling the fans a bunch of fertilizer.