Tribe’s Tale of Bullpen Woes

The Cleveland Indians have one of the best records in Major League Baseball, currently sitting at 56-41 on the season.

That mark is one game behind the Baltimore Orioles for the best mark in the AL.

You have to wonder what people would be thinking about the Tribe if not for the bullpen problems that have plagued them this season.

Here is the list of games where the relief corps have failed Terry Francona–

Game #4, April 9th: White Sox 7, Indians 3. Yan Gomes’ 7th inning home run off Chris Sale gave the Tribe a 3-2 lead. Bryan Shaw gave up three hits to plate two runs, and then gave up a three run homer to Avisail Garcia.

Game #13, April 21st: Mariners 10, Indians 7. Mike Napoli’s dramatic two out, two run homer tied the game in the bottom of the ninth, but Cody Allen walked two in the top of the tenth, before allowing a three run jack to Robinson Cano.

Game #17, April 25th: Twins 4, Indians 3. Gomes’ homered in the 8th tied the game at 3, before Zach McAllister served up a solo shot to Oswaldo Arcia to lead off the bottom of the ninth.

Game #18, April 26th: Twins 6, Indians 5. Another homer, this one by Napoli with two out in the top of the ninth, tied it up, only to see Allen give up three hits (a caught stealing helped), the last the game winner by Miguel Sano.

Game #20, April 29th: Phillies 4, Indians 3. Tribe had a 3-0 lead in the top of the fifth before the Phils tied it off Corey Kluber. But Ryan Howard clubbed a leadoff HR in the 11th off of Allen.

Game #21, April 30th: Phillies 4, Indians 3. No dramatics here, but the Tribe battled back to tie the game in the 5th at 3, but Tommy Hunter in his Cleveland debut, gave up a leadoff single, a sacrifice bunt, and a two out hit and wound up the loser.

Game #31, May 11th: Astros 5, Indians 3. Cleveland tied it up at three in the top of the ninth on Carlos Santana’s one out triple, but the Tribe couldn’t push him across. They lost in the 16th on a Marwin Gonzalez home run off of Cody Anderson.

Game #46, May 27th: Orioles 6, Indians 4. This one was tied at three going into the top of the seventh, when with one out, McAllister gave up back to back doubles and then a home run to Mark Trumbo.

Game #48, May 29th: Orioles 6, Indians 4. Tied at four in the top of the 7th, Jeff Manship gave up a long ball to Hyun Soo Kim, his first big league HR.

Game #61, June 11th: Angels 4, Indians 3. Stymied for eight innings by Matt Shoemaker, the Indians tied it with three in the ninth, with Tyler Naquin’s single evening this one up. Shaw allowed a leadoff hit, sac bunt, walk, and a game winning single to Yunel Escobar.

Game #64, June 14th: Royals 3, Indians 2. Josh Tomlin turned a 2-1 lead to Shaw after seven innings, but the reliever gave up a hit and a dinger to Salvador Perez.

Game #80, July 2nd: Blue Jays 9, Indians 6. Tribe was looking to extend their winning streak to 15 and carried a 6-5 lead in the bottom of the 7th, when Dan Otero gave up a HR to Josh Donaldson to tie it, and Toronto scored three in the 8th off Otero and Hunter.

Game #90, July 16th: Twins 5, Indians 4. Trevor Bauer carried a 4-2 lead into the 7th and had thrown over 100 pitches, but Francona wanted to squeeze one more inning out of him. He allowed a hit and a walk, and Manship and Otero allowed them to score. The winning run came in the 11th on an error.

Game #92, July 18th: Royals 7, Indians 3. Corey Kluber carried a 2-0 lead into the bottom of the eighth, but Shaw gave up three straight hits to allow KC to tie it, then walked two more. Manship came up and gave up a grand slam homer.

Game #97, July 24th: Orioles 5, Indians 3. Trailing 3-2 in the 8th, the Tribe tied it on a Napoli single, but Allen gave up a two run bomb in the bottom of the ninth.

Look, we aren’t saying the Indians should have won every one of these games, that’s ridiculous. But, they’ve lost a bunch of games where they had the lead or were tied after six innings.

Too many to ignore. Had they won just half of these games, their record would be 63-34, the best in the game by plenty. That’s how good this team is.

That’s why they need to get help for the bullpen going down the stretch. You simply cannot give up leads in the post-season. You can only lose two games in the Division Series, and three games in the Championship and World Series.

When you get a lead late, you have to finish the deal.

Tribe Not A Secret In Cleveland Anymore

The Cleveland Indians will hit the halfway point of the 2016 Major League Baseball season today in Toronto on pace for either 98 or 100 wins for the year.

And although we did predict them to win the American League Central Division title, even we didn’t think they would be this good.

Moreover, the Tribe’s club record 14 game winning streak has not only drawn attention to them nationally, but also within northeast Ohio, where they were becoming an afterthought to the Browns and the world champion Cavaliers.

We were at the Hard Rock Casino Friday evening, and when Francisco Lindor fielded the last grounder in the bottom of the 19th inning and threw to first for the out, a cheer went up throughout the venue.

Yes, people in this area are excited about the Indians.

While everyone figured the pitching staff would perform well, and it has, ranking 1st in the AL in ERA by a pretty good margin, the Indians have also scored a lot of runs, 6th in the Junior Circuit in scoring per game.

How? That’s a mystery based on the other offensive stats.

Cleveland is 10th in on base percentage, 6th in slugging, and 6th in OPS. They are 8th in batting average.

They have used their speed though, leading the league in stolen bases and triples.

They also have the most sacrifice flies and the fourth least runners left on base, meaning they have made the most of their opportunities to score runs.

That’s something you have to wonder will hold up in the second half, and that’s why many experts think the Indians need to get another hitter at the trade deadline.

While that would be nice, the back end of the bullpen is a concern too.

Bryan Shaw has been in 37 games and Cody Allen in 34. The next most games appeared in by a Cleveland reliever is 28 by Zack McAllister.

It is obvious that Terry Francona only has confidence in the first two pitchers listed and both of those guys have flaws.

Shaw is prone to giving up long balls (7 homers in 31-2/3 innings), and Allen has control issues (17 walks in 34 innings).

For those who say it is not a big deal, bringing Bryan Shaw into a one run game is a nail biter. He gives up a dinger, and it’s a tie game.

As for Allen, the walks mean he pitches himself into trouble more than he should. That’s something you can’t have in a pennant race or in the playoffs.

McAllister has been a disaster recently, so much so that Francona doesn’t use him in high leverage situations anymore. He can’t throw anything but a fastball for a strike. We know it, and so do big league hitters. There is no reason to look for anything but a heater facing the big right-hander.

We would start using Dan Otero and/or Joba Chamberlain with more regularity in close games to see if they can handle the load. But, we all know about Tito’s loyalty to those who have performed in the past.

Making a move for top flight relief pitcher would enable Allen to pitch the eighth inning and leave the 7th for Shaw.

The Tribe doesn’t need to shorten games like Kansas City because their starters are much better than the Royals, but it would make the bullpen as lethal of a weapon as the rotation.

The front office is anticipating large crowds during this week’s homestand after a 22-6 record in June and a six game lead in the division.

Who knew that winning would be the best marketing plan?

And don’t forget that after the convention leaves town, the Indians will be home for long stretches in August and September. The way the Tribe plays at Progressive Field this season, that’s a huge advantage.

But the front office can’t stand pat, and we don’t think they will. They know this is one of baseball’s best team this season.

Is The Tribe Bullpen A Liability?

Before the season started, and we predicted an AL Central Division title for the Cleveland Indians, one of our reservations was the bullpen.

Was it good enough to put the Tribe over the top.

Watching the games unfold, the relief corps has sprung its share of leaks.

Early in the year, Bryan Shaw was knocked around like a pinata, and you had to wonder if the heavy workload he has had over the past three seasons had caught up to him.

Cody Allen gave up two walkoff wins in one week, a seven day span that saw Cleveland lose five contests in a six game span by a single tally.

Now, Shaw and Allen seem to have returned to their norm and Zack McAllister, the other reliever Terry Francona has entrusted in the late innings is scuffling.

Our thought was the Cleveland bullpen walks too many hitters and gives up too many home runs.

Looking at statistics, that really isn’t the case.

The Tribe ‘pen has allowed 13 dingers to date, but that ranks 18th in the major leagues. As we have seen, the Cincinnati Reds lead in this dubious stat, giving up an unbelievable 33 circuit clouts to date.

Cleveland’s total is less than the vaunted Yankee bullpen, but the relief corps allowing the least bombs are the Mets and White Sox (each seven), while the Giants, Nationals, Orioles, Royals, Dodgers, and Red Sox have allowed nine.

A year ago, Tribe relievers allowed the fewest homers in the American League.

In terms of walks, the Indians’ relievers have allowed the 14th most walks (48). Again, Cincinnati’s gang of gas cans have walked a whopping 85 hitters thus far.

The five bullpens allowing the fewest free passes are Houston, the Yankees, Washington, Toronto, and Detroit.

The Indians were tied for 5th in all of baseball last season in allowing walks.

The Tribe’s bullpen is also 14th in ERA and 20th in strikeouts.

So, although there are far worse bullpens in the big leagues, there is also no doubt Cleveland’s relievers are not performing up to the standards of last season. There has been a regression.

Francona’s plan in close games in to use McAllister in the 7th, Shaw in the 8th, and Allen in the 9th. Do you know how many times he has used them that way and all three gave him a scoreless inning?

Once, on April 6th, the second game of the season and the Tribe’s first win. It hasn’t happened since.

McAllister has allowed 14 hits and struck out 16 batters in 14-2/3 innings, but he’s walked six hitters.

Shaw has given up 15 hits and fanned 19 batters in his 17 frames, but he has walked seven and allowed four homers.

Allen has allowed a scant 12 hits in 18-2/3 innings striking out 20, but he’s given 11 free passes and served up three bombs.

And Jeff Manship seems to be regressing to his career norm (5.20 ERA), giving up 14 hits and six bases on balls in 11-2/3 innings.

Perhaps it is time to give Joba Chamberlain (0.66 ERA), Tommy Hunter, and Dan Otero, who saved last night’s win some chances in higher leverage situations.

The margin for error in the American League is very slim because there aren’t any dominant teams, nor are there any bad squads.

Getting the bullpen back to the level of the last couple of years could be what puts the Indians ahead of the pack in the Central Division.

Consistency is a Talent, Tribe Needs More of It

After losing both ends of a doubleheader last Sunday in Baltimore, and being shutout in both games, the Cleveland Indians reached rock bottom for the season. They dropped to 9-15 for the month of June at that point.

There was nowhere to go but up.

And up they went, winning the next five games and now they have a chance to win what looked to be a very difficult trip to Baltimore, Tampa, and Pittsburgh.

So, everything should be looking up in Tribetown and all the critics should be silenced, right?

From our point of view, not quite.

Why? Because of the consistency problem this team has, and has had all season long.

How many Indians have been consistent all year? After struggling in April, Jason Kipnis, Cody Allen have been excellent.

Michael Brantley’s power numbers are down from 2014, but he’s a guy who can be counted on to provide quality at bats every night.

Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco can be depended on to keep the Indians in ballgames on an everyday basis.

David Murphy and Ryan Raburn have solidified the DH spot with their platoon.

And since being called up, 3B Giovanny Urshela has been good on a day in, day out basis.

The rest of the roster? Not so much.

Carlos Santana is in the midst of a five-week long slump. SInce June 1st, the switch-hitter has gone 19 for 103 (.184), with 3 HR and 9 RBI in that span.

Over the last 28 days, Brandon Moss has hit .202 (18 for 89) with 4 HR and 12 RBIs. Over the last week, he’s gone 4 for 26.

MIchael Bourn has hit .185 with one extra base hit (last night’s double), three RBI and one stolen base over the last four weeks.

Mike Aviles has gone 4 for 26 over the last two weeks.

WIth Yan Gomes still struggling coming back from his knee injury, and Francisco Lindor going through the growing pains (at least at the plate) of being called up for the first time, this is why the offense has sputtered.

That’s five players in the batting order who have pretty much been terrible lately. That makes it very tough to put together any offense.

In the bullpen, Nick Hagadone has an ERA of 6.00 over the last month, but he’s really the only problem in that area.

Look, we understand that players aren’t robots, and they can’t all be the bastions of consistency like Brantley.

However, you can’t have so many players who are feast or famine either. That leads to months like the Indians had in April and June.

When Moss is swinging the bat well, and Santana is hitting too, the Tribe offense can look like a juggernaut. Unfortunately, that only happens in spurts.

And that’s why this is a frustrating team to watch.

Fans have clamored for a right-handed power bat, but recently, the Indians have handled southpaws.

What the Indians really need is another “professional hitter”, a guy who is going to give them quality at bats night after night.

The one thing to contemplate is what happens if Murphy and Raburn, particularly Murphy, who is hitting .327, but is a .276 career hitter, go into slumps.

Then it will be necessary for Santana or Moss to get hot over a month period.

Our point is that we shouldn’t be fooled by this five game winning streak. The Indians still need flaws they need to correct if they want to make a run at a post-season berth. They can’t afford another April or June, that will bury them.

Let’s hope the front office doesn’t become complacent about what has happened this week. That’s fools gold.

Tribe Last 27 Games, Much Better Than First 27.

When we evaluated the Cleveland Indians after the first sixth of the season, they were floundering at 10-17, on a pace to go 60-102 for the season.

The next 27 games proved to be much more successful, mostly due to the starting pitching and the bullpen settled into some redefined roles.

Terry Francona’s club went 16-11 in this group of games and hit the one-third point in the season at 26-28 and very much in the mix for a post-season berth.

The Royals have come back to the pack a bit and the Tigers have been in a major slump, so the surprising Minnesota Twins are currently the division leaders, with the Indians five games back. They sit just two and a half games out of a wild card spot.

The offense improved, thanks to a historic month by Jason Kipnis, who was moved to the leadoff spot, and currently sits 6th in the American League in runs scored per game. They are 4th in the league in OPS, mostly because they are 2nd in on base percentage, led by Carlos Santana, who leads the AL in walks.

Still, the offense is inconsistent. In the last 28 games, the Tribe scored three runs or less in 14 of them, exactly half of them. However, they scored seven or more runs in six games, which is what improved their ranking. Thanks to the pitching staff, they won four of the games they scored three runs or fewer.

The Twins rank just ahead of Cleveland in runs per game, and they had 10 games of three runs or less in that span, along with seven games scoring seven or more. It’s a slightly less volatile attack.

When they score four or more runs, the Indians are 21-9.

Without a more consistent offense, the pitching has to shoulder the entire burden for this team winning.

The Tribe pitching staff ranks 11th in the Junior Circuit in ERA, but the way the starters are going, they will continue to rise in that statistic. And they lead the AL in strikeouts by a wide margin, fanning 39 more hitters than Tampa Bay in two fewer games.

The “Big Four” of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar all have allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and struck out twice as many hitters as they have walked. That is outstanding.

All of them have an ERA under 4.00 as well. Over the last month, since Kluber’s 18 strikeout performance against St. Louis, a span of 23 games, Tribe pitchers have allowed more than four runs in a game just four times, and in two of those games, they allowed just five runs.

That’s dominant pitching.

Shawn Marcum isn’t the fireballer the rest of the guys are, but he’s provided good outing in three of his four starts. Despite not being able to throw in the mid 90’s, he is striking out almost a hitter per inning.

As for the bullpen, Cody Allen has pitched well since the end of April, allowing just four earned runs in 16-1/3 innings, striking out 23. His return to form has stabilized the ‘pen, and the others have followed suit.

Bryan Shaw is looking more and more like the guy who pitched here in 2013 and 2014.

Zack McAllister and Nick Hagadone have been inconsistent, and Scott Atchison was not pitching well before he went on the DL with an ankle injury.

Things are looking up at Progressive Field.

The starters are throwing like we all expected entering the season, and if the bats can start showing some improvement, it could be a fun summer downtown.

What a difference the second sixth of the season was.

Some Things Bothering Us With The Tribe

The baseball season is still very, very young. That’s why no one should be too upset about the Cleveland Indians start after 14 games.

The Tribe is 5-9 for the season, and really the only problem with that record is that Kansas City and Detroit have launched the 2015 regular season on a hot streak.

The Indians were 5-9 at the same point in the season in 2013 and went on to win 92 games that season and made the playoffs.

If you are looking at how games behind Cleveland is in the standings, be advised that on May 18th last season, they were 10-1/2 games out of first. They still went to the final weekend of the season before being eliminated from the post-season.

However, there still are some disturbing trends that have shown up in the first three weeks of the season, and they are being carried over from a year ago.

Defense. The Indians thought this would be improved from last year because Jose Ramirez replaced Asdrubal Cabrera at SS, and Carlos Santana was established at 1B. It’s still a problem.

Ramirez has booted some routine plays in key situations giving opponents extra outs, and the fears about Brandon Moss in right have proven true. He has missed cut offs routinely, and several fly balls which looked to be outs off of the bat have fallen in safely.

On a team built on pitching, the hurlers deserve better defense behind them.

Let’s face it, shortstop and centerfield are the most important defensive positions, and the organization’s best defender at SS is in Columbus.

Michael Bourn/Top of the lineup. The centerfielder’s career has been in decline since arriving here, and to this point, nothing has changed.

In his years in the National League, Bourn was a career .272 hitter with a .339 on base percentage and a 704 OPS. In two years with the Tribe, those numbers have dropped to .257/.313/.667.

While it is very early, Bourn isn’t off to a good start, hitting below .200 and second on the team in strikeouts despite having just two extra base hits.

He’s never been a very good leadoff hitter because of his on base average, but he’s becoming a liability at the top of the order. It will be interesting to see how patience Terry Francona has with the veteran.

The guy batting after him, Jason Kipnis, is also struggling. He has just one extra base hit in 58 at bats. Just two years ago, Kipnis had 57 extra base hits for the season, today, he ranks last on the club.

It wouldn’t be as bad if Kipnis was getting on base, but he’s drawn just two walks on the season, meaning his OBP is just .246.

It’s difficult for the offense to get going when every game seems to start with two outs and nobody on.

The Bullpen. Francona has ridden his bullpen hard the last two seasons, and whether it has taken a toll or not remains to be seen. However, the relief corps has had a problem throwing strikes, and that is not good.

Cody Allen has walked six hitters in five innings. Nick Hagadone, whose control has always been an issue, has walked three in six innings of work.

Bryan Shaw has walked two in four innings, but has been behind in the count often, leading to allowing eight hits in that workload. Kyle Crockett, now at Columbus, walked three in less than three innings.

Putting extra men on base especially in key, late game situations is never a good idea. This is an area that could turn around quickly.

We generally don’t form a solid judgment on a team until they get to 27 games, or 1/6th of the season.

But the first two things noted here were around all last year, so it becomes more of a trend.

Sure, the Indians could start hitting this weekend in Detroit and come back home in a much better spot. The starting pitching, especially at the top of the rotation has been spectacular.

Let’s hope the Tribe starts playing much better starting Friday night.

Lack of Depth in System Hurts Tribe’s Ability to Deal

The recent drafting history of the Cleveland Indians hasn’t been good. Several people have written about the fact that since 2000, the only star player picked on the first round by the Tribe has been C.C. Sabathia.

A look at the current roster shows Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall among the everyday players originally picked by the Tribe, and the only pitchers of note drafted or originally signed by Cleveland are Cody Allen and Danny Salazar.

That’s one reason the Indians find it difficult to make trades during the off-season.

The way to get established players is the ability to deal major league ready talent for them. And right now, the Indians have precious few of them.

Currently, the two prizes of the farm system are SS Francisco Lindor and OF Clint Frazier, coincidentally, the first round draft picks in 2011 and 2013 respectively.

They are both considered in the top 20 prospects in all of the minor leagues, and with the lack of quality in the system; there isn’t any way that GM Chris Antonetti can use either of them as trade chips.

The other factor working against the Tribe is that none of their top prospects, save for Trevor Bauer, have played a game at the AAA level.

That means any team dealing for a top prospect from the Indians would have to wait awhile before seeing the fruits of the trade.

That’s a tough sell for a team dealing a quality player.

Where the Indians do have some depth is in bullpen arms, which normally aren’t going to fetch a quality major league player. They also have some middle infield depth though, and other teams could be interested in that.

According to Baseball Prospectus, five of the Tribe’s top 10 prospects are middle infielders. Besides Lindor, Cleveland could afford to deal one of these players: #6 prospect 2B Jose Ramirez, #7 SS Ronny Rodriguez, #8 Dorssys Paulino (although he may be moved to the outfield because of defense), and #9 2B Joe Wendle.

This publication rates the Cleveland farm system as thin in top flight talent, but loves the two guys at the top of the organization’s system.

The only pitchers listed in the top ten are RHP Cody Anderson, who was at Akron in 2013, and RHP Dace Kime, who was just drafted last summer.

In order to get a high-caliber player, let’s say David Price, you have to be able to give up a big name prospect. Do the Indians have that player because they aren’t dealing Lindor and/or Frazier, nor should they?

It is doubtful that Tampa Bay would deal the former Cy Young Award winner for #3 prospect OF Tyler Naquin (’12 first round choice) and say Rodriguez, who could be dealt because he is blocked by Lindor.

That’s why it is a huge priority for the organization to stock the farm system, and with two first round picks this June, assuming Ubaldo Jimenez signs elsewhere, there is a solid opportunity to do just that.

This isn’t to say it is impossible for Antonetti to pull off major trade, but it does make it more difficult.

Part of having a good farm system is not only being able to add young talent to the big league roster, but it also enables a team to make trades.

When the younger talent in the Cleveland organization gets closer to the majors, they will be in a better position.