Tribe Trade Miller? We Say No Way

Since the World Series ended, there have been several national baseball writers who have speculated that the Indians might try to move their post-season star, Andrew Miller, during the off-season.

We feel this should be filed under the same grouping as writers saying the Cavaliers are going to move Kevin Love, and the Browns will fire all of their coaches again this winter. Meaning, it’s a reflex move for writers, low hanging fruit, if you will.

Look, anyone can be traded. We love when Tribe fans will say to us things like the team will never trade Jason Kipnis or Jose Ramirez. Our response is always, if the Angels called and offered Mike Trout, a deal would be reached pretty quickly.

When Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff acquired Miller from the Yankees at the trading deadline last July, one of the reasons he was so appealing, besides that he may very well be the best reliever in the game, was he was under contract for two more years.

That’s the biggest reason the Indians were willing to move two of their top ten prospects.

The national media speculates in this way because they can’t believe the Tribe would be willing to pay $9 million for the next two seasons on a relief pitcher, and combine with a likely $6-7 million payday for Cody Allen, there is certainly no way Cleveland, little small market Cleveland, would spend close to $20 million on their bullpen.

They forget that the Indians are in a win now mode. Most of their key players are in their prime, and they have a very good starting rotation that is paid well below market value compared to their ability.

And yes, we have been critical of the franchise’s spending habits over the years, but with post-season ticket revenue and an expanded season ticket base, we think the front office won’t be as frugal this winter.

When you get to the seventh game of the World Series, your organization has to think they can win the world championship the next season.

Also, the Indians’ farm system is in pretty good shape right now.

When they made the deal with the Yankees, they had two top outfield prospects in Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier. They still have Zimmer poised to be in Cleveland by the end of the 2017 season, and Greg Allen keeps getting better and better too.

They also moved Justus Sheffield, a top starting pitching prospect. Mike Clevinger is the next man up if an injury occurs next season, and the organization has Ryan Merritt and Adam Plutko in the upper levels of the system, and Triston McKenzie, Juan Hillman and others in the lower levels.

So, Miller will be an Indian on Opening Day, 2017 in Texas unless the front office is absolutely blown away by a trade offer, which we doubt will happen.

The Indians intend to get back to the post-season next fall, and if they do, what better weapon to have than the guy who was this fall’s ultimate weapon…Andrew Miller.

On the other hand, if something happens and the season goes south, Miller could be on the move in July, and then, and only then, will Antonetti and Chernoff consider making a deal and will command the same kind of haul Cleveland gave to New York.

That’s the only scenario where Miller gets moved.

Did Tribe Give Up Too Much For Miller?

It has now been a little over a week since the Cleveland Indians made their big deadline deal, trading four prospects, two of them in the top 100 in the sport for left-handed reliever Andrew Miller.

We have heard people, media and fans alike, still debating the merits of the Tribe’s biggest trade since getting Ubaldo Jimenez in 2011.

Did the Indians give up too much to get Miller?

The cost was steep as Cleveland gave up their top prospect (or #1A with Bradley Zimmer) in Clint Frazier, perhaps their top pitching prospect in Justus Sheffield, and two bullpen arms in Ben Heller and J.P. Freyereisen.

For the most part, the Indians dealt from strength. They have Zimmer coming, and with the emergence of Tyler Naquin, and prospects like Greg Allen and Anthony Santander having outstanding minor league seasons, the front office felt they could make this move.

We like Frazier, in fact, we would have rather moved Zimmer in this deal, but at the time of the trade, he had 21 at bats at the AAA level. Remember, when you are a good team, prospects aren’t valued as heavy as they are when you are building.

Sheffield has been very good, but we all know that pitchers are a volatile commodity. He’s just 5’10”, and we have seen reports that he can be a big time starting pitcher, while others see his future in the bullpen.

As for the other the bullpen arms in the deal, the Indians have a lot of guys who are profiled as relievers, even if they haven’t been given a good shot in the big leagues. Again, the organization was dealing from strength.

Ordinarily this would be a hefty price for a relief pitcher, particularly a closer, which is how many have perceived the trade.

However, the way Terry Francona has used Miller so far, he is much more valuable than a closer.

Yes, we have problems at times regarding how the skipper uses his relievers, but to date, he has been using out of the box thinking on using his primary guys at the end of the game, namely Miller, Bryan Shaw, and Cody Allen.

So far, we have seen Francona use Miller in the 6th inning in a game where the Tribe wanted to end a three game losing streak to the Twins and his starter gave him less than five innings.

He also used him Tuesday night in the 7th inning to close out an inning in a 2-0 game, and then used him for two more hitters in the 8th.

So, he’s using Miller at the key point of the game, not strictly the ninth inning. Really, it would be a waste to use this weapon simply to get the last three outs of a game when you are winning.

This versatility is what makes Miller perhaps the best reliever in the game. And his ego isn’t such that he has to pitch the ninth. And neither is Allen’s which makes this all work.

Because Francona can use Miller at the most important part of the game, ninth inning or not, means the Indians haven’t paid too much to get the big lefty.

And we can see Miller being even more of a weapon if the Tribe gets to the playoffs.

This ability also means that perhaps Cleveland took care of their bullpen woes with just one addition.

If the Indians win the World Series this season and Miller is a big part of that, which he will have to be, then the price is not excessive.

If Tribe Makes A Deal, They Have Depth in System

The hottest team in baseball resides right here in Cleveland, Ohio. The Indians have rolled off 10 straight wins, and currently sit atop the American League Central Division by five games over the Kansas City Royals.

There shouldn’t be any doubt that president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff should be sellers when the major league trade deadline hits at the end of July.

What should the Indians be focusing on?

Many people want Cleveland to get a bat, believing the offensive surge that has occurred over the last month is not sustainable.

We believe the focus should be on the bullpen, because Terry Francona seems to trust only Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen when he has a lead late in games, and both of those guys have some warts that are troublesome.

Shaw has been prone to the long ball, and Allen goes through periods where he struggles to throw strikes.

As a result, Francona is letting his starters go longer into games than normal, something may not be a big deal one or two times through the rotation, but if the Indians are going to make a run in the post season, they need to monitor the workload of the starting pitchers.

We have already seen Tito and Mickey Callaway push back Danny Salazar earlier in the month, and Corey Kluber got an extra day as well.

Most of the speculation regarding getting help either in the bullpen and/or in the lineup centers on giving up prospects, as that is what most teams are looking for.

If you are going to push to go deep into the playoffs, you can’t deal people currently on the roster. You need to add to the squad, not move people around.

So, eliminate the speculation on dealing Trevor Bauer and Lonnie Chisenhall. Tyler Naquin may be expendable, because he could still get sent back to minors when Abraham Almonte is activated.

We wouldn’t do that, but the Indians might.

So, what prospects are expendable?

If the Indians are going to make a big splash, they would like have to give up one of their two prime outfield prospects, Bradley Zimmer or Clint Frazier. Right now, Frazier is the brighter star, having a better season in Akron.

The other guy people talk about is Bobby Bradley, the slugging first baseman at Class A Lynchburg. Bradley has contact issues, but when he connects, the ball goes a long, long way. The talent evaluators with the Tribe have to decide whether or not Bradley will ever be more than the next Russell Branyan.

If they don’t think so, he could be a very popular piece in making a major move.

The Tribe also has some starting pitching in reserve, guys who could contribute to a major league team as early as next year.

We’ve already seen Mike Clevinger, but there is also Adam Plutko, Ryan Merritt, Shawn Morimando, and in the lower levels of the minors, you have Julian Merryweather and Justus Sheffield.

And don’t forget C Francisco Mejia, just promoted to Lynchburg and the Tribe’s representative in The Futures’ Game.

If the Indians receive a player they would control for 2017 and perhaps 2018, they may be willing to move a top line prospect. However, it would be very difficult to move Zimmer and Frazier, two guys who could be starters as early as next year, for a two month rental.

The farm system is finally producing, and if the Indians play it right, they could be the team to beat in the Central Division for the next 4-5 seasons.

Besides the prospects, they have Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, both under 23-years-old playing everyday.

Antonetti and Chernoff have plenty of ammunition to go out and get an impact player without giving up on the future.

They can deal from organization depth. It’s been a long time since the Indians could say that.

Tribe Farm System Starting To Pay

From the time Mark Shapiro took over as general manager of the Cleveland Indians to his departure last season, the overriding tale of the regime was lack of success in the amateur draft.

From 2000 to 2008, the most successful first round choice by the Tribe’s scouting staff was Jeremy Guthrie, and because he was signed to a major league contract, he appeared in all of 16 games for Cleveland, starting just once.

In 2008, the Indians drafted Lonnie Chisenhall, and while you can’t put him in the “star” category, he is a serviceable major league player, a step up from previous years.

In 2011, Cleveland selected a high school shortstop named Francisco Lindor, and since then the Indians’ first round picks show up among baseball’s top prospects, depending on the publication or website you are reading.

Lindor was followed by Tyler Naquin, who made the Opening Day roster this season, and Tribe fans are waiting patiently for the next group of top picks, namely Clint Frazier (’13), Bradley Zimmer (’14), and Brady Aiken (’15).

Both Frazier and Zimmer can be seen nightly about an hour south of Lake Erie, both toiling for the Akron RubberDucks. Aiken is recovering from elbow surgery after he was the first overall pick in 2014, and should pitch for one of the Indians’ minor league teams this summer.

During that drought, thankfully, the Indians were very good finding prospects in other organizations, so they did have some good young players in the pipeline, such as Shin Soo Choo (Seattle), Asdrubal Cabrera (Seattle), Michael Brantley (Milwaukee), and Carlos Carrasco (Philadelphia).

That has continued in recent years too, as the front office basically stole Yan Gomes, now one of the AL’s best catchers from Toronto, and when they dealt Choo before he became a free agent, they received Trevor Bauer and Bryan Shaw from Arizona.

There may be two more players unearthed in another team’s system on their way as well, both coming from the Angels system.

A few years ago, with Vinnie Pestano no longer a dominant set up man, then GM Chris Antonetti moved him to Los Angeles for a starting pitcher in the Class A California League with an ERA over 5.00.

The deal was regarded as ho hum, Cleveland got a warm body. After coming over to Kinston, the right-hander had a 4.87 ERA.

The Tribe pitching coaches re-did his mechanics, and last year he posted a 2.73 ERA at Akron and 145 strikeouts in 158 innings pitched.

That’s the story of Mike Clevinger, one of the organization’s top ten prospects, and a guy you may see at Progressive Field some time this season.

When the Indians seemed to be out of the race last year and wanted to make room for younger players, they moved veteran David Murphy to the Angels for a young shortstop who looked to be all glove, no hit.

Eric Stamets had a very good training camp, and has gotten off to a good start (albeit a couple of games) at Akron.

Could he be the next success story for the organization?

For a mid to small market team like the Indians, they must be able to develop players. The fates of Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher show what can go wrong with the free agent experiments.

Over the last five seasons, the Indians have made tremendous progress developing young players. We picked them to win the division this season, and with the young talent on the horizon, it could be another long run of success on the corner of Ontario and Carnegie.

Lack of Depth in System Hurts Tribe’s Ability to Deal

The recent drafting history of the Cleveland Indians hasn’t been good. Several people have written about the fact that since 2000, the only star player picked on the first round by the Tribe has been C.C. Sabathia.

A look at the current roster shows Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall among the everyday players originally picked by the Tribe, and the only pitchers of note drafted or originally signed by Cleveland are Cody Allen and Danny Salazar.

That’s one reason the Indians find it difficult to make trades during the off-season.

The way to get established players is the ability to deal major league ready talent for them. And right now, the Indians have precious few of them.

Currently, the two prizes of the farm system are SS Francisco Lindor and OF Clint Frazier, coincidentally, the first round draft picks in 2011 and 2013 respectively.

They are both considered in the top 20 prospects in all of the minor leagues, and with the lack of quality in the system; there isn’t any way that GM Chris Antonetti can use either of them as trade chips.

The other factor working against the Tribe is that none of their top prospects, save for Trevor Bauer, have played a game at the AAA level.

That means any team dealing for a top prospect from the Indians would have to wait awhile before seeing the fruits of the trade.

That’s a tough sell for a team dealing a quality player.

Where the Indians do have some depth is in bullpen arms, which normally aren’t going to fetch a quality major league player. They also have some middle infield depth though, and other teams could be interested in that.

According to Baseball Prospectus, five of the Tribe’s top 10 prospects are middle infielders. Besides Lindor, Cleveland could afford to deal one of these players: #6 prospect 2B Jose Ramirez, #7 SS Ronny Rodriguez, #8 Dorssys Paulino (although he may be moved to the outfield because of defense), and #9 2B Joe Wendle.

This publication rates the Cleveland farm system as thin in top flight talent, but loves the two guys at the top of the organization’s system.

The only pitchers listed in the top ten are RHP Cody Anderson, who was at Akron in 2013, and RHP Dace Kime, who was just drafted last summer.

In order to get a high-caliber player, let’s say David Price, you have to be able to give up a big name prospect. Do the Indians have that player because they aren’t dealing Lindor and/or Frazier, nor should they?

It is doubtful that Tampa Bay would deal the former Cy Young Award winner for #3 prospect OF Tyler Naquin (’12 first round choice) and say Rodriguez, who could be dealt because he is blocked by Lindor.

That’s why it is a huge priority for the organization to stock the farm system, and with two first round picks this June, assuming Ubaldo Jimenez signs elsewhere, there is a solid opportunity to do just that.

This isn’t to say it is impossible for Antonetti to pull off major trade, but it does make it more difficult.

Part of having a good farm system is not only being able to add young talent to the big league roster, but it also enables a team to make trades.

When the younger talent in the Cleveland organization gets closer to the majors, they will be in a better position.