Once Tribe Gets The Lead, The Bullpen Locks It Up

We feel fairly certain opposing managers in Major League Baseball won’t be thrilled with the news that the Cleveland Indians might have another bullpen weapon in rookie Nick Sandlin.

Now, we don’t want to get too carried away with three appearances totalling 4-1/3 innings, but the hard throwing sidearmer seems to have made quite an impression on Terry Francona, Carl Willis, and Reuben Niebla.

With last Thursday game in the balance, Francona brought in the rookie in a 3-0 game in the bottom of the sixth with two Kansas City Royals on base, and six time all star Salvador Perez at the plate. Perez hits cleanup for the Royals.

Sandlin induced a double play grounder to get two quick outs and then followed up by getting Jorge Soler on another ground ball. He pitched a three up, three down seventh, including two strikeouts, turning the game over to James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase to close it out.

Generally, guys who throw from the side don’t get it up to home plate at 95 MPH, so it gives Francona an option to show opposing a different look late in games.

The Cleveland bullpen had already taken the look of a “if you aren’t ahead after six, it doesn’t look good for you” relief corps through the first 30 games because of the performances of Bryan Shaw, Karinchak, and Clase.

Shaw is a remarkable story. He already ranks 8th on the Indians’ all time list for appearances with 391, and should be at least 6th by the end of the season. He was a mainstay of Francona’s bullpen from 2013 through 2017, pitching in 378 games, and led the American League in appearances 2014, 2016, and 2017 before departing for Colorado and a big contract.

He suffered through two bad seasons with the Rockies, a place not known to be kind to pitchers, and then pitched in just six games with Seattle last season, allowing 12 runs in six innings.

When he signed with the Tribe before spring training, there were plenty of comments, mostly negative. We thought what the heck, maybe he could regain his regular form after pretty much a year of inactivity.

He’s rewarded the Indians’ trust by being the man Francona calls on to pitch the 7th. He has a 2.03 ERA in 13 games, striking out 14 in 13-1/3 frames. The only down statistic is his eight walks.

Karinchek is putting up unworldly numbers right now. He allowed a HR to Hunter Dozier last week perhaps just to prove he is human, as he has allowed just 3 hits in 15 innings for the season, striking out two batters per inning. And his control, an issue in the past, has been excellent to date with just three walks.

He has been so dominant, he ranks 4th in WAR for the Indians at this point of the season, behind Jose Ramirez, Shane Bieber, and Aaron Civale.

Clase, with his 100 MPH cutter, has been more dominant than his numbers indicate, and his numbers are good (1.26 ERA and 15 K’s in 14-1/3 IP). He’s allowed 15 hits in those innings, but only six of those have been classed as line drives. The rest are ground balls that have gone either through the infield or been fielded but the batter beat the throw to first.

He’s also walked just three batters on the season.

We haven’t even mentioned Cal Quantrill (2.12 ERA), Phil Maton (16 strikeouts in 11 innings), and Nick Wittgren, who after a couple of shaky appearances has allowed just a single run in his last five outings.

And Rule 5 draftee Trevor Stephan hasn’t been in a game since April 28th.

The starting pitching gets a lot of the headlines because they keep the Indians in almost every game. But once the Tribe gets the lead, it’s very tough to get it back because of the bullpen. And if Sandlin continues to do what he did in KC, it’s a nightmare for opposing hitters and managers.

Nothing New: If Tribe Can Score, They Can Contend

So far in this 2021 Major League Baseball season, it’s quite simple: If the Cleveland Indians score four runs in a game, they win.

When the Indians get to that figure, they are 17-1 on the season. When they don’t, they are 1-13. The only game they lost when reaching the four run figure was the second Carlos Rodon/Zach Plesac matchup in Cleveland, when the White Sox beat the Tribe 8-5.

The only game they won scoring less than four? The epic Shane Bieber/Lucas Giolito game that went to 10 innings and resulted in a 2-0 Cleveland win.

Recently, the Indians’ offense has been a little better, Friday night’s no-hitter not withstanding. In their current stretch where they’ve one 10 out of 13, the Tribe has scored an average of 4.8 runs per game, getting at least four in all of the wins.

Overall on the season, the league average is 4.41 runs, and the Tribe is sitting at 4.25, so they are still below average.

So, it’s simple right? If the Indians can have close to a league average offense, they can be a contender in the AL Central. The two favorites coming into the season, the White Sox and Twins have problems. Chicago has lost two key offensive pieces in Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert, and the Twins have injury and bullpen issues to date.

Now, the question is, can the Tribe put together a league average offense?

Right now, the Cleveland attack is very top heavy. They have two real good offensive players, with OPS’ over 800 in Franmil Reyes (914) and Jose Ramirez (891). They have only two other players with an OPS over 700–Jordan Luplow at 789, and his batting average is just .171, and Josh Naylor at 724.

To date, the league average OPS is 704, so Cleveland has just four hitters who are better than the American League average.

That’s not good, nor does it bode well for the future.

We believe Eddie Rosario and Cesar Hernandez’ track records indicate they will hit, and while Rosario has had several years where he has been above the 800 OPS mark, Hernandez is more of a 750 OPS batter, meaning he’s above average, but not on the elite level.

The key continues to be Josh Naylor. If Naylor can hit like he has so far in May (.300 with two home runs and a 930 OPS in a small sample size), the Tribe’s offense just may be good enough. Notice that his surge has tied in with the offense being better.

First base is still a disaster area with Jake Bauers and Yu Chang combining to go 18 for 104 with just a single home run. Please note we are again talking about 32 games, not 10 anymore.

And the defense, particularly in the outfield, has been poor. Harold Ramirez has provided a bit of a spark with the bat (five hits this week, including three doubles), but he’s not a centerfielder. We know Naylor isn’t going to win a gold glove in right, and Rosario is average in left.

Terry Francona has tried to play Amed Rosario at shortstop against lefties, but it seems like he makes one misplay in each game he is out there.

And Roberto Perez’ finger injury means we will see a lot of Austin Hedges behind the plate, and let’s be kind and say he is offensively challenged. We know the Indians go defense first behind the plate, and we understand that, but right now, that position provides a slight upgrade over a pitcher offensively.

We have already seen opposing teams start to pitch around Ramirez and take their chances with Rosario and Reyes, and so far, they’ve come through. But given a choice, it wouldn’t be shocking to see more teams simply not give Ramirez anything to hit in late innings.

Nothing really has changed for the Tribe. If they can score, they can contend. Their ability to push runs across remains the key to the 2021 season.

No One Should Be Surprised By Tribe’s Lack Of Scoring.

The Cleveland Indians’ offense continues to struggle on a nightly basis. They have played 19 games this season, and scored three runs or less in 11 of them. Even if you have the best pitching in the sport, it’s difficult to win games when you can’t score.

On April 12th, the Tribe started an 18 game stretch (now 17 games with Wednesday’s game being snowed out) in which they were playing teams who figure to contend for the post-season.

In that stretch, they’ve seen some very good pitchers, guys like Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Garrit Cole. They were no-hit by Carlos Rodon, and didn’t score over nine innings against Giolito, a game in which they won by the way.

Cleveland has played 11 of those games, and they are 3-8 so far. They have scored more than four runs (the league average is 4.41) in just two of those contests, last Sunday’s win over Cincinnati and the following game at home against the White Sox.

Of the eight games where Terry Francona’s crew has mustered more than three tallies, half of them have come against Detroit, who by the way has the worst ERA in the league.

There are people who will claim no one should make rash judgments because the season is just 19 games old, and there is some merit in that, we usually wait until 27 games (1/6th of the season) has been played.

However, it’s not like the Indians were an offensive juggernaut a year ago. They were 13th in the AL in runs per game at 4.13, almost a half run less than league average, which was 4.58.

And they let go two of their top five players in OPS a season ago, trading Francisco Lindor and letting Carlos Santana go as a free agent. The only proven bat they brought in over the off-season was Eddie Rosario, so it isn’t like the front office looked at a bad offense and said let’s address the problem.

You can make moves like that if you have a farm system with players going to be ready for the big leagues right away. Most of the Tribe’s top prospects won’t be ready until 2022 at the earliest.

No one should be shocked they rank 13th in the league in runs scored thus far.

By the way, for all the gruff directed at Santana for walking a lot, how would you like an occasional base on balls out of the players at first base? The two guys who replaced him have combined to go 10 for 66, which is a .152 batting average, with no home runs, and four walks.

We understand the ownership decided to not just lower the payroll, but take a chainsaw to it, and guys who can hit tend to cost money. Still, the free agents many people mentioned, players like Joc Pederson and Kyle Schwarber, haven’t produced either.

Going back to Santana, he was known to love it in Cleveland. Doesn’t anyone else think the two parties could’ve worked something out?

A big hope was Josh Naylor, who came over from San Diego in the Mike Clevinger deal, but he has struggled out of the gate, hitting .241 with no homers, although he has five doubles, and striking out 15 times vs. three walks.

We still have hopes he can be a solid offensive player, but he’s put up some bad at bats in key situations this season to date.

Listening to an interview with Chris Antonetti before last night’s game, he sounded confident the bats will turn around, but we are sure that’s one of those circumstances where that’s all he can say.

We don’t see where the offense is going to get better with the current roster, and dare we say, with the current coaching staff. We aren’t a believer in change for change sake, but the dugout personnel has pretty much remained the same as when Terry Francona took over.

The only changes that were made (outside of Jason Bere as bullpen coach) came from Mickey Callaway and Kevin Cash getting managerial positions, and of course, because Brad Mills retired.

At some point, perhaps the players aren’t listening to the message anymore.

It’s still early, yes, but it’s also starting to get late. A week from today, the schedule will move to May, and that 27 game benchmark will have been crossed.

Will the Indians start scoring runs by then? We’d have to say it’s doubtful they will be a run scoring machine.

Tribe Needs To Walk, And Walks Are Good.

It goes without saying that the Cleveland Indians are struggling offensively. We’ve discussed it before, but currently the Tribe is averaging less than four runs per game, 12th in the American League.

They are second last in batting average (.209), but weirdly lead the league in home runs. They have the largest percentage of their runs scored coming from homers, which might seem like a positive statistics, but really is a negative one.

They don’t score much unless someone hits a home run.

They do rank 5th in the AL in walks, and have dropped in recent days to a tie for third in striking out the least amount of times.

We are a big believer in the strikeout/walk ratio in determining the ability of a hitter.

While there are exceptions, hitters that have high strikeout totals and don’t walk a lot aren’t destined to have long careers in the big leagues. It’s fine if you have high whiff and walk rates. In Cleveland, think about players like Jim Thome and Travis Hafner.

It’s one reason we were concerned about Amed Rosario, who last season had a 39/4 ratio.

What worries us is that if a batter doesn’t know the difference between a strike and a ball, pitchers figure that out pretty quickly, and realize they don’t have to throw the batter a pitch in the zone to get them out.

It’s also why we are anxious to see how young hitters like Tyler Freeman and Owen Miller do when minor league baseball starts in May. So far in their professional career, they make opposing pitchers throw strikes to get them out for the most part.

So far, the Cleveland hitters with the worst ratio in this regard are Austin Hedges (7 K’s/1 BB), Franmil Reyes (18/3), Andres Gimenez (10/2), and Josh Naylor (12/4).

Can you imagine how lethal Reyes would be at the plate if he could lay off pitches out of the strike zone? We understand some of that comes with experience, because hitters are anxious to come up with the big hit, rather than keep the line going and pass on the opportunity to the next batter.

On the other hand, here are the hitters who have good ratios: Jose Ramirez (8/7), Cesar Hernandez (13/10), Jordan Luplow (10/7), and Roberto Perez (14/9). This is one of the reasons, despite a .167 batting average thus far, we think putting Hernandez in the leadoff spot would be a good move.

It’s also why we are encouraged about Luplow, and why we think he should start seeing more at bats vs. right-handed pitching. He leads the team home runs and RBIs, despite having just 37 plate appearances, and is 3 for 6 with two dingers against righties. The outfield has not provided a lot of offense since the beginning of the 2020 season, so why not give Luplow more chances based on this success.

So far, the Indians have been dismal hitting with runners in scoring position, which is the biggest reason they have become so dependent on the home run to score. The more opportunities these selective hitters get, we should see better results, as long as they maintain patience.

Think to Tuesday night, when Luplow fanned with the bases loaded in the fifth despite being ahead in the count, 3-1. He swung at two pitches above the zone. That inning is different if he just takes the walk, which he has done the season for the most part.

On the other hand, keep an eye on players like Reyes, Gimenez, Naylor, and to a lesser extent, Amed Rosario, and see how many times they get themselves out.

We aren’t saying it’s easy to hit big league pitching, but it helps if you limit yourself to swinging at good pitches.

The encouraging thing about Tuesday’s contest was the Indians drew nine walks. They need the base on balls to help their offense.

Lack Of Scoring Puts Tribe On Razor’s Edge

It is still early, very early in the 2021 Major League Baseball season. We still are just a middle past the middle of April, and the Cleveland Indians have only played 14 games, less than 10% of its schedule.

However, for many, including ourselves, who were concerned about the ability of Terry Francona’s squad to score runs, the trepidation is real.

Through the first 15 games, the Indians rank dead last in the American League in scoring. This current trip. which has included six games, have the Tribe tallying 14 runs, and two of those occurred in the ten inning win over Chicago last Tuesday, when the dumb MLB rules people gave Cleveland a runner on second to start the inning.

Wednesday night, they were no hit by Chicago’s Carlos Rodon in a game were their plate appearance got progressively worse as the night moved on.

Cleveland is last in the AL in on base percentage, 9th in slugging (mainly because they are 3rd in the league in home runs), last in batting average, and second last in OPS+.

Without a doubt, they are one of the worst offenses in the game to date.

In their 14 contests, they have scored two runs or less six times, three runs or less eight times, and four runs or less in all but three games. ‘Keep in mind, the average team in the Junior Circuit scores 4.5 runs in a game.

When you score that few runs, the other parts of your game have to be perfect. Your pitchers can’t have bad outings, and the Tribe had two of them (Zach Plesac and Logan Allen) this week. You can’t make defensive mistakes, which have cost Cleveland in both games in Cincinnati. You can’t make baserunning errors either, like Eddie Rosario’s in the 8th inning yesterday.

The entire team is living on the edge right now.

We felt going into the season, Francona had four, maybe five solid hitters in his lineup. When two of them are going through tough periods, like Cesar Hernandez and Jose Ramirez went through at the beginning of the trip, that means you have two or three hitters contributing.

That simply doesn’t cut it.

The front office had an entire season to find a centerfielder after Oscar Mercado lost the job, and they still haven’t found one. They seem to be trying to give the job to Amed Rosario, a converted shortstop who is more of platoon piece (he hits southpaws very well), and started the year using Ben Gamel there as well.

They seem hesitant to give Jordan Luplow, who also hammers lefties, a shot at a full time job out there, although the former Pirate didn’t have huge platoon splits in the minors.

The best thing you can say about the offense is they generally put the ball in play.

Former Tribe skipper Mike Hargrove used to say something to the effect of if you have a good leadoff hitter and a cleanup hitter, your lineup takes shape on its own. Right now, the Indians have no one who should hit first, except Hernandez, who has told Francona he doesn’t like hitting first.

He leads the team in walks with eight, and has a career .351 on base average.

They really don’t have a true #4 hitter either. Franmil Reyes is too streaky at this point in his career, and Eddie Rosario isn’t bad, but ideally should hit fifth or sixth.

That means Francona is left with putting together a puzzle every night, and that makes his job very difficult.

Where can the offense come from? That’s the million dollar question. Yes, there are alternatives in the minors, but we don’t a big impact will come from there.

Perhaps a change in approach by Francona? Maybe the team can be more aggressive on the basepaths, more steals, more hit and runs? They don’t strikeout, so the latter might be a plan.

The Indians have to start putting together a way to score more often, otherwise, the margin for error for this baseball team will continue to be very thin.

Tough Three Week Stretch For The Tribe.

No one can or should complain about a 5-3 start for the Cleveland Indians. As former major leaguer and broadcaster Mike Hegan used to say, if you win three out of every five, you end the season at 96 wins, and that gets you in the playoffs more often than not.

After losing last night, if the Tribe wins tonight, they will have accomplished that at least for the first ten games of the season.

But the next three weeks should give us an idea of how good the 2021 Cleveland Indians are.

Through May 2nd, the Tribe takes on a quartet of teams who are projected to be serious contenders to be playing baseball in October: The White Sox (8 more games), The Reds (3), the Yankees (4), and the Twins (3).

Chicago and Minnesota rank 3rd and 4th in the American League in runs scored per game (Cleveland is 7th) while the Reds led the NL in scoring. To be fair, they haven’t faced the Cleveland staff, which is tied for the league lead in ERA with the Twins.

While the Tigers’ offense ranks 14th in runs, perhaps because they have played six games vs. the Indians’ staff, let’s look at the Royals. KC has scored 37 runs in seven games, ranking sixth in the AL at 5.29 per game.

However, in the two games against the Indians’ pitching staff, they scored five runs in two games. So, when they aren’t facing Cleveland, they are averaging 6.4 runs per contest, which would be second in the Junior Circuit.

It will be interesting to see how the Pale Hose, Reds, and Twins fair against the Tribe staff, which hasn’t allowed more than five runs in a contest to date.

And while the Cleveland hitters knocked around the Detroit pitching staff, the series in the Windy City will see Indians’ hitters facing some accomplished hurlers like Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, and Lance Lynn, while they will also probably see the Reds’ Luis Castillo in the last game in the Queen City.

We have already noted the Twins’ pitching ranks tied for first with the Tribe in ERA, and the Yankees are currently third. Will the Tribe be able to score runs against real good pitchers, which honestly, the Indians have not faced yet.

And will the contact Cleveland hitters have been making, they have still struck out the least amount of times in the league, suit them well and can it continue against top flight pitching?

Look, we aren’t downgrading the Tribe’s success to date. We have always said when folks have complained about beating bad teams, would they rather they lose to them? Of course not, there is something to be said for beating teams you are supposed to have success against.

Unfortunately, the schedule makers have only allowed Cleveland 38 opportunities to play the Royals and Tigers, meaning there are 124 other contests on the slate.

There is an old baseball adage that says you split with the contenders and beat up on the poor teams on the schedule, so we aren’t looking for Terry Francona’s team to dominate over the next three weeks, although that would be nice.

They just need to hold their own against them. And as we said, we are anxious to see how the lineup cobbles together runs against the likes of pitchers like Giolito, who has pitched well vs. the Tribe in the past two seasons, and Lynn.

That might give us a truer picture of how the 2021 edition of the Indians will fare this season.

It’s Early, But Tribe Bats Haven’t Quelled Any Fears

First of all, let us start that it is way too early to make any conclusions about any major league baseball teams after five games.

However, if you thought coming into the 2021 season that the offense would be a problem for the Cleveland Indians, they have done nothing to make you feel differently.

Remember, the Indians ranked tied for 13th in the American League in runs scored last year and dealt one of their best hitters in the off-season. So, it’s not like there isn’t a reason for concern.

In the season’s first five games, the Tribe scored two runs or less in three of them, and let us remind you that even with Cleveland’s usually excellent pitching, winning when the team scores two runs is very, very difficult.

The average American League team scored 4.58 runs per game on average last season, and the Indians were best in the Junior Circuit in run prevention, allowing 3.48 runs per contest. So, scoring two runs usually means adding one to the “L” column.

Thank goodness for Jose Ramirez. The AL MVP runner up belted a pair of two run homers yesterday, accounting for the only runs in the Tribe’s second victory of the season.

There are some good things to take note of thus far, although you can look at them in different ways.

Cleveland is last in the AL in striking out, and even in today’s game where hitters fan a lot, that’s a good thing. The counter to that is they haven’t faced any of the game’s big strikeout pitchers. Detroit and Kansas City ranked in the lower half of the league in that category last season. In fact, the Tigers pitching staff was last.

And they’ve been drawing four walks per game, which has to be a staple of their offense. They probably won’t see a premier pitcher until they visit Chicago next week to take on the White Sox.

They have also hit some home runs. Ramirez’ two yesterday give the team seven on the season, and partially because of that, they rank 8th in slugging percentage.

However, some of the things we were concerned about have reinforced those feelings.

Terry Francona has for some reason decided the bat the centerfielder in the leadoff spot, and while Jordan Luplow has had tremendous success against lefties in his career, so it makes sense with him, hitting Ben Gamel first raises some eyebrows.

The veteran has a .331 on base percentage for his career (his best mark was .358 with Seattle in 2018), so it’s tough to find a reason for him to bat first. Luplow’s has a lifetime .379 OBP vs. southpaws as a contrast.

To be fair, we know Cesar Hernandez is a better hitter than he has shown so far (2 for 18 with four walks). But the offense can’t be solely dependent on Hernandez, Ramirez, Eddie Rosario and Franmil Reyes either.

Another problem for the attack has been the inability to get runners on base early in innings. Too often, the Tribe gets a couple of hits with two outs, making it tough to score. And they’ve also banged into five double plays, third in the league to date, so they aren’t putting a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers.

They’ve also scored only two runs before the sixth inning. So, starting pitchers haven’t been able to protect any leads thus far.

Again, it’s early, so it is way too early for concern. But the Indians could have eased the minds of many supporters with a good start at the plate.

If they can score, then they can surprise in the AL Central.

Asking Questions That Tribe Hasn’t Answered Yet

Spring training lasts six weeks because of the starting pitchers. They have to get enough time to get stretched out enough to throw around 100 pitches in a game once the regular season starts.

Because it lasts so long, there is plenty of time resolve most questions, but here are some we would like to have answers for, and maybe we will once the calendar changes from April to May.

What about centerfield? Our guess was the Tribe front office was hoping that Oscar Mercado would regain his 2019 form and seize the job, but the 26-year-old still has problems distinguishing a ball from a strike, so he will not be in Detroit today.

Bradley Zimmer has the same issue and was also sent down. So, Terry Francona’s options to start the season are veteran Ben Gamel, converted shortstop (and recently converted at that) Amed Rosario, and Jordan Luplow.

It’s not like Gamel hit his way on the roster either, he kind of walked his way on, drawing seven walks. He batted .171 (7 for 41). Luplow has been more of a corner outfielder since coming to Cleveland, although he is good enough defensively to play in the middle of the outfield.

The question to us, is why wasn’t Daniel Johnson given a look out there during exhibition play? He was 7 for 19 against fairly experienced pitching in Arizona.

You have to wonder how quick he will be back with the big club?

Outfield defense or lack of it? Compounding the lack of an experienced true major league centerfielder is that the two men who will play the majority of time in the corner positions are Eddie Rosario and Josh Naylor, neither of whom are known for their glove work.

The infield defense should be solid. Cesar Hernandez won a Gold Glove last year, and new shortstop Andres Gimenez won the job partly because of his glove. Jose Ramirez is very good at the hot corner.

However, perhaps the front office is counting on a lot of strikeouts because a team based on pitching like the Indians should back that strength with good defense.

Our guess is a lot of late game substitutions for defense in the outfield in games where Cleveland is ahead. That’s why the Zimmer decision was a bit curious. Although we never have been a fan because of his lack of hitting, he can go get it in the field.

Who’s Still Here in August? If the Indians get off to a slow start, expect the trade winds to start swirling, mostly involving Ramirez. The front office learned from trading Francisco Lindor was that they probably moved him too late, just one year before he was a free agent.

With Ramirez under club options through the 2023 season, it would seem the club could get maximum value dealing a superstar player with two full season left on a reasonable contract.

And if Ramirez is moved, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hernandez and/or Eddie Rosario also on the block.

If the Tribe is in contention, Ramirez is probably off the table, at least until the end of the season, but Hernandez could still be moved if one of the Tribe’s infield prospects shows they are ready to come up.

And if they are in contention, Eddie Rosario is probably having a big season.

The Cleveland management have put a lot of pressure on their young pitching staff for the 2021 season. Can they answer the challenge? If so, these questions won’t be discussed much, but if Terry Francona’s squad can’t muster up enough runs or the outfield defense is porous, you will hear a lot about all three.

Previewing the ’21 Tribe

This week is the week baseball fans have been looking forward to all winter. Opening Day of the 2021 season starts on Thursday, April 1st.

The Cleveland Indians have made the post-season in five of the last six seasons, and in 2019, when they didn’t, they still won 93 games.

Can they do it again in 2021?

Why they can make the playoffs. Zach Plesac joins Shane Bieber as a second ace of the starting rotation and the rest of the young pitchers keep the Indians in every game, much like last season. Logan Allen’s strong spring training translates into a solid regular season.

The back end of the bullpen, led by James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, and Nick Wittgren, make Terry Francona’s team unbeatable if they have a lead after six innings.

Offensively, Jose Ramirez has another incredible season at the plate, comparable to the recent seasons where he finished in the top three of the MVP voting. Josh Naylor fulfills the expectations everyone seems to have for him and becomes a guy who can put up an 800 OPS.

Andres Gimenez does a solid job at the plate, and shows why he was the correct choice to take over at shortstop because of his glove.

Eddie Rosario hits like he always has at Progressive Field, putting up 30 HR and knocking in 100 runs, and Franmil Reyes shows more consistency than ever, belting 35-40 homers.

Why they won’t make the playoffs. The inexperienced young starters don’t hold up over the entire 162 game schedule. Aaron Civale continues the struggles he had in the latter half of the 2020 campaign, and Triston McKenzie can only give the big club about 50 innings.

The offense simply can’t score enough runs to win games, and Jose Ramirez gets pitched around in any situation where the opposing team can avoid him.

The pitching isn’t help by poor outfield defense. Naylor shows he’s the best option at first base, as the other candidates for the position, first Jake Bauers, then Bobby Bradley struggle to contribute at the plate.

Reyes continues to be streaky at the plate, with periods where he is red hot, followed by several periods of 0 for 20 and 2 for 44 mixed in.

The bullpen is spotty, Karinchak struggles with his control enough that Terry Francona can’t trust him in tight games, which because of the hitting, the Indians are involved in a lot of.

And Gimenez struggles enough at the plate that Amed Rosario moves back there vs. lefties, making the defense struggle at another spot.

The Indians won’t be a bad team this season, in fact, we don’t think they will be below the .500 mark. However, an awful lot of things will need to go right for them to make the playoffs. The inexperienced rotation (remember, no one besides Bieber has pitched more than 250 innings in the big leagues) has to be very, very good.

That means two other members in the starting rotation (Plesac, Civale, or based on spring training, Logan Allen) have to be of all star caliber. And the bullpen has to be excellent as well, with Karinchak and Clase overpowering hitters.

We believe you need seven solid bats to have a good lineup, and right now, the Tribe has Ramirez, Eddie Rosario, Cesar Hernandez, and Franmil Reyes. We think Naylor can be another, but can two others step up?

It will be an interesting season for sure, as we watch Gimenez and Naylor develop, and also look at the progress of the players at the AAA and AA levels, once minor league action starts.

We figure somewhere in the neighborhood of 83-85 wins. They will be a competitive team, but won’t have enough to make the post-season in 2021

Still Questions For Tribe: Rotation and CF

Spring training is getting down to the nitty gritty. The regular season commences a week from tomorrow in Detroit and the Cleveland Indians still have questions in the starting rotation and in centerfield.

Coming into camp, the favorites for the last two spots in the rotation seemed to be rookie Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill, who came over in the Mike Clevinger deal at the deadline last season.

However, things in baseball don’t always work out like you want them.

Both McKenzie and Quantrill have struggled in Arizona, and Terry Francona and pitching coaches Carl Willis and Ruben Neibla might be thinking of going in a different direction.

McKenzie, who has only thrown 39 innings in the past two seasons combined, has walked 10 hitters and allowed seven home runs in 14-1/3 frames. True, it is spring training, the ball tends to fly in Arizona, and the righty might be working on pitches, but those aren’t good numbers.

Quantrill has had issues with command all spring too, walking nine in his 11 innings pitched.

Complicating things in a good way has been the performance of southpaw Logan Allen. He’s thrown 9 innings in the desert, allowing just one run and fanning 11. He may have just earned a spot on the big club.

Another complication is that Adam Plutko is out of options. The right-hander has allowed five runs in 8 innings of work, but has struck out nine.

It would not be a shock if Plutko got the baseball in the home opener on April 5th against Kansas City. The others (McKenzie, Quantrill, and Allen) all have options and the way the schedule is set up for the Tribe, they really don’t need a fifth starter until the season’s tenth game, April 13th against the White Sox.

That would also allow Francona to carry an extra bullpen arm for the first week and a half of the season.

Centerfield got a little clearer when Oscar Mercado was sent to the alternative site, leaving Bradley Zimmer, non-roster invitee Ben Gamel, and converted infielder Amed Rosario vying for playing time or to make the roster.

Also, Jordan Luplow has started playing in the Cactus League games, and yesterday started in center.

The front office has to be pulling for Zimmer, a former first round pick. To date, and he has faced pretty experienced pitching, he is 9 for 30, with five walks. He has fanned nine times, which is his biggest issue, not putting the ball in play.

The veteran Gamel, a left-handed hitter like Zimmer, is 7 for 31 (.226). It would seem to be tough for him to beat out Zimmer. Rosario, who would seem to be a platoon option with either Zimmer or Gamel, is 8 for 24 on the spring, and would seem to have a roster spot locked up.

Luplow, who has crushed left-handed pitching since joining the Indians would seem to give Francona, another option in CF, if he wants to give Andres Gimenez a day off against a tough lefty, or an option in RF, should he want to do the same with Josh Naylor.

It is difficult to think the Indians will keep six outfielders, another reason it could be tough for Gamel to hold down a spot.

And don’t forget Harold Ramirez (3 for 18), another right-handed bat, and could be in play as well.

Our prediction here? Zimmer will get the nod against righties, with A. Rosario playing the middle of the outfield vs. southpaws. The possible complication? Cleveland opens in Detroit, and Comerica Park has a huge outfield. Francona might favor defense in the Motor City.