Tito’s Patience Being Put To Test

One of Terry Francona’s best (and most famous) assets as a manager is his patience.  Fans simply don’t understand this.  As soon as a player has two hitless games, they are ready to try someone else.

It doesn’t work that way over the ups and downs of a 162 game, six month, Major League Baseball season.

Heck, right now, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are going through a down period.  Lindor is 10 for 47 during the past two weeks, and Ramirez is 4 for 22 over the last week.

No one thinks they should be replaced or platooned, they are among the best players in the game.

Every player has ups and downs during the long season, and Francona understands that, and gives players who have performed for him in the past the benefit of the doubt.

And really, that’s the way it should be.

However, sometimes Francona’s famous patience develops into stubbornness.  We are sure that’s a benefit for him in the clubhouse.  Players want to know the manager has their backs, and aren’t going to go away from them at the first sign of trouble.

Jason Kipnis and Cody Allen are two players who should have Tito thinking that it might just be time to go in a different direction.

Both have been with the Indians since the day Francona accepted the managerial job in the fall of 2012, Kipnis coming up in 2011 and Allen in ’12.

Kipnis made his first All Star team in 2013, and he and Carlos Santana were the best offensive players on the roster.  Allen led the team in appearances (yes, even more than Bryan Shaw!) as the primary set up man for Chris Perez.

Both were key players on the American League Championship team in 2016, Kipnis’ home run in Game 5 of the World Series, put away to contest that put the Tribe one game away from a world title.

Allen formed a tremendous back end of the bullpen duo with Andrew Miller, and saved six games in the post-season.

Unfortunately, Kipnis hasn’t been the same player since that World Series.  He battled injuries in ’17, and hit just .232 (.291 OBP) with a 705 OPS a year ago, and this season, his number are worse, at .218 (although he is walking more–.307 OBP) and a 654 OPS.

Remember, he played the outfield in the ALDS because the Tribe was rolling with Jose Ramirez playing second, his natural position, and the combination of Yandy Diaz and Giovanny Urshela at third.

Why not give that a look again?

As for Allen, his strikeout rate is at a career low, his walk rate and home run rate are at a career high.  He has pitched in over 67 games five consecutive years, and perhaps his arm is showing a little fatigue.

Francona leaned on him a lot early in the season when the bullpen was in shambles with Miller out.  Perhaps that’s taken it toll too.

With Allen, there aren’t really alternatives.  The only other right-handers in the ‘pen are Dan Otero and Adam Cimber, who struggles vs. left-handed hitters.

But maybe it’s time to give Allen a week to 10 days off, and see if an improvement occurs. After all, the Indians have all but put away the Central Division.  Until then, Tito has Miller and Brad Hand to close, and he has used Hand in that role since coming over from San Diego.

Patience is a virtue.  However, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

That’s the fine line Terry Francona sits on these days.  It’s probably not a comfortable seat.

MW

 

What Is Tito’s Second Half Secret? Mostly, It’s Pitching

Someday, maybe when Terry Francona accepts his plaque going into baseball’s Hall of Fame, he can explain why his teams get better in the second half of the season.

Since Tito took over the Indians in 2013, his teams have played at a .532 winning percentage (291-256) before the All Star Game, but a torrid .610 pace (236-151) after the Midsummer Classic.

Here is the tale season by season–

Pre All Star       Post All Star
2013                           51-44                  41-26
2014                           47-47                  38-30
2015                           42-46                  39-34
2016                           52-36                  42-31
2017                           47-40                  55-20
2018 to date             52-43                   21-10

Sometimes, it’s because the roster has been reinforced, such as 2016, when the front office traded for Andrew Miller at the trade deadline, and then added Coco Crisp at the end of August.

One thing that does stand out is the staff ERA for the pitching staff.  Check out these figures since Francona took over the Tribe–

Pre All Star      Post All Star
2013                             4.31                    3.13
2014                             3.98                    3.03
2015                             3.80                    3.53
2016                             3.65                    4.11
2017                             3.78                    2.76
2018 to date               4.00                    3.10

Only in 2016, the season in which the Indians went to the seventh game of the World Series, was the staff ERA not significantly less than it was in the first half of the season.  In four of the seasons (including this one), the pitchers are yielding around a run less per game.

In 2013, Ubaldo Jimenez became unhittable down the stretch, and Scott Kazmir got his legs after coming back from a year outside the big leagues.  Early in that season, Francona was using Vinnie Pestano as his set up man, and he proved to be ineffective.  By the end of the year, Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen were in that role.

And Pestano was traded for Mike Clevinger.

The 2014 team saw the emergence in the second half of Carlos Carrasco, and T.J. House pitched great down the stretch.  John Axford started the year as the closer, but he struggled and Allen took over the role, which solidified the entire bullpen.

That team fell three games short of getting in the Wild Card game.

In 2015, the pitching wasn’t significantly different in the second  half, but they did get Josh Tomlin back from Tommy John surgery to make 10 very good starts (3.02 ERA) and Cody Anderson pitched well too.

Early in that season, the Tribe had Shaun Marcum (6 starts) and Bruce Chen (2) making starts.  House started the year in the rotation based on his ’14 campaign, but started having arm problems.

The following year is the one season the bullpen ERA went up, and that was after adding Andrew Miller in mid-season deal.  Mike Clevinger (rookie) and Cody Anderson (arm trouble) had to make 19 starts and had an ERA approaching 6.00 combined.

Last year, the second half was the time Trevor Bauer put it all together to become a dominant starter.  Clevinger also joined the rotation full time and had a 3.11 ERA.  In relief, Tyler Olson threw 20 scoreless innings.

This year’s improvement is due to an improved bullpen.  Getting Brad Hand and Adam Cimber from San Diego, and Miller’s return from the disabled list helped a relief corps that was dismal in the first half.

Carlos Carrasco has had a better second half after he pitched below his standard before the All Star Game.

Sometimes a change in the lineup causes a surge too.  In ’15, Frankie Lindor arrived and hit .313 after being called up.  In ’16, Jose Ramirez settled in at 3B after beginning the year as a utility player.

But, by and large, it’s the pitching that makes the quantum leap.  The organization’s development of the talent available can’t be appreciated enough.

MW

 

Looking At MVP Candidacy Of Ramirez, Lindor.

The Indians and Red Sox are playing a four game series in Fenway Park this week, which is a matchup of two teams who will be playing in October.

However, a secondary battle will be going on, with four big time candidates for the American League MVP on the field, Boston’s Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, and the Indians’ Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.

The quartet are all in the league leaders in WAR, as well as ranking high in all of the traditional statistics too.  Betts currently leads in WAR at 8.3, with Ramirez 3rd, Lindor 4th, and Martinez 8th.

In terms of offensive WAR, Ramirez is 2nd, Betts 3rd, Martinez 4th, and Lindor 6th.  Betts is regarded as the best defensive rightfielder in the sport, but Lindor actually has a higher defensive WAR because he plays a more important defensive position.

In runs created, the four rank in the top five in the AL.

We aren’t going to comment on the two Boston players candidacy, but needless to say, both are great players and would be worthy winners of the MVP.  But we think the two Indians have a better case, and here’s why.

The Tribe is third in the American League in runs scored despite no one besides Ramirez and Lindor having an OPS over 850 among players with over 100 at bats.  Michael Brantley, having a solid season, is third in this statistic at 823 currently.

By contrast, two other Red Sox are over that figure–Xander Bogaerts at 875 and Andrew Benintendi at 877.  Boston leads the AL in runs scored, and you can see why with four outstanding hitters in their lineup every day.

We have been saying this all season long, but the Cleveland attack is very often dependent on the two players manning the left side of their infield.

Really, who else is contributing on an every day basis offensively?

Edwin Encarnacion has dropped off from a year ago, his batting average down almost 30 points, his on base percentage down 60 points.  Over the last month, we have seen opposing teams pitching around Ramirez in key situations to get to the veteran slugger.

Yonder Alonso has done well in maintaining the power spike he had a year ago, already setting a career high in RBIs with 70, but he hasn’t had as good a season as Carlos Santana had with Cleveland a year ago.

Yan Gomes has slumped after the All Star break, so Terry Francona isn’t really getting good hitting out of centerfield, catcher, rightfield, and second base.  That’s almost half of the batting order.

Yet, the Tribe is scoring more runs than anyone in the Junior Circuit save for Boston and New York.  That’s how valuable the duo of Ramirez and Lindor have been.

And it hasn’t been just this season either.  Ramirez, of course, finished third in the voting a year ago, and Lindor has finished in the top ten the past two seasons, 9th in 2016 and 5th last season.

We also have to remind everyone again, that Ramirez won’t turn 26 years old until next month, and Lindor won’t be 25 until November.  They are still getting better folks.

Right now, Betts has the WAR lead, and that goes a big way in determining the MVP, and we understand that.  But if the word “valuable” is considered, keep in mind that the Indians’ offense is being carried by the duo of Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.

That’s our case for both of them.

MW

Tribe Still Needs To Help OF, Bullpen Before September.

It has long been said that the Major League Baseball season is a marathon not a sprint, and certainly playing 162 games over a six month period is not an easy task.

(FYI, if the schedule would be shortened in the future, the only acceptable length to us would be 154 games)

Over that length of time, there certainly is a physical toll on the players, and the Cleveland Indians have been reminded of this over the past two weeks.

First, DH Edwin Encarnacion went on the disabled list with a left bicep issue which may or may not have resulted from changing his swing after he was hit on the hand by a pitch during the last game before the All Star break on July 15th.

Then, the Tribe’s best pitcher this season, Trevor Bauer, was hit on the ankle by a line drive Saturday night, and has a small stress fracture, an injury that will put him on the shelf for awhile.

So, with the August 31st waiver deal deadline coming up, we were wondering what Chris Antonetti can do to put the finishing touches on the Indians’ roster before the end of the month.

Offensively, because of Leonys Martin’s unfortunately health issue, the Tribe could still use another bat and/or glove in the outfield.  Greg Allen has done okay since recalled to take Martin’s spot, but he still should be in AAA learning.

His platoon partner in CF, Rajai Davis is better once he’s on base than getting on base, with a .294 on base percentage and 604 OPS.  His OPS vs. lefties, against whom he gets the bulk of his playing time, is just 544.  Not exactly what you would call a platoon advantage.

In rightfield, Brandon Guyer has started hitting southpaws like he did when he came to Cleveland in 2016, but his partner, Melky Cabrera, has become a singles hitter who plays poor defense.  If Terry Francona has the lead after the 6th inning, Guyer goes in for defense.

Certainly, Lonnie Chisenhall’s return would help, but that seems unlikely at this point.

Remember, that the front office picked Coco Crisp and Jay Bruce in the past two seasons in August, and both made an impact down the stretch for the Tribe.

The other area we would like to see an addition is in the bullpen because you can never have enough good relief arms in the post-season.

Right now, with the game on the line, Terry Francona feels very confident in Brad Hand.  Andrew Miller still isn’t the Miller we came to know in 2016 and early ’17, but that may be a matter of building up arm strength.

Cody Allen is still having control problems, not walking people as much as falling behind hitters, and gives up too many home runs for our taste.

Oliver Perez has been very good in his loogy role, but it doesn’t seem like Francona has figured a role yet for Adam Cimber.

Neil Ramirez helped when the relief corps was really scuffling, but lately has had issues keeping the ball in the park.  And Dan Otero can get a key ground ball, but this year has given up a lot of hits, and more homers than usual.

Getting another reliable arm would seem to limit the use of the latter two pitchers in high leverage situations.

The recent past says the front office will do something to bolster the roster heading down the stretch.  Just exactly what will they do?

MW

Tribe Needs Encarnacion, Alonso To Be Productive In October

We have been talking about the Cleveland Indians’ offense for over a month now and how strange it is that the Tribe ranks 3rd in the AL in runs scored per game with really only three players having above average seasons.

We will point out again that Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are having arguably two of the five best hitting seasons in baseball, because if they weren’t, the Cleveland offense would be in big trouble.

Can they win in the post-season with only three players carrying the load at the plate?

Terry Francona’s squad ranks 4th in the American League in on base percentage, despite having only those three hitters above the league average in that category (.317).

Yes, Erik Gonzalez and Lonnie Chisenhall are higher, but they have limited plate appearances.  Edwin Encarnacion sits right at the league average, while Yonder Alonso is just below at .314.

Alonso has an OBP of .365 in 2017, and his career mark is .336, so he is well below both of those marks.  Encarnacion was at .377 last season, his highest mark since 2012, mostly because he reached a career high with 102 walks.

This season, his walk rate is down, and so is his batting average, down to .229 currently after hitting .258 a walk ago.

Here are the other on base percentages for the players who get the most playing time for the Tribe:

Yan Gomes                 .300
Jason Kipnis               .307
Brandon Guyer         .284
Rajai Davis                 .296
Greg Allen                  .264
Roberto Perez           .247

The Cleveland attack is inconsistent because of it.

Among the teams with the highest run scoring totals in the AL, it was surprising to see the Indians ranking only behind Boston and New York in terms of number of games scoring three runs or less.  The Tribe has done this 43 times, compared to 30 for the Yankees and 34 for the Red Sox.

By contrast, Houston has scored less than four runs 47 times, Texas 50 times, and Oakland 51 times.

The Indians do rank behind only Boston in number of games with 10 or more runs, having done that 14 times (Red Sox 17).

The concern for us is how this will work in the playoffs.  The other teams are going to go out of their way to not allow Lindor or Ramirez to beat them, so it is important that someone, anyone, steps up.

It won’t be unusual to see managers pass Lindor to get to Brantley, and/or skip Ramirez to get to Encarnacion.  Really, who else is going to hurt them the way the lineup is currently constructed.

The point is someone else has to step up or the front office is going to have to get another bat.

Leonys Martin looked like he could help vs. right-handed pitching, but he looks like he may be out of the lineup for awhile with a non-baseball related issue.

Will Chisenhall be able to get back in the lineup, and even if he does, can he stay healthy for the post-season?

We would say at this point, neither Martin nor Chisenhall will be useful come playoff time.

So, can the offense be more consistent and efficient unless changes are made?  We’d say the most likely scenarios would be Encarnacion or Alonso getting better because they were better a year ago.

Gomes is who he is, and Kipnis hasn’t been good at the plate since the World Series in 2016.  That’s a long slump.

Until then, we are officially worried about the hitting come playoff time.  That’s the problem relying on two players, no matter how good they are.

MW

 

The Yandy Question.

One of the great conundrums of this baseball season is the Cleveland Indians’ offense.  The Tribe ranks 3rd in the American League in runs scored, yet it seems like it could be even better.

Part of that feeling is well documented on this site, the offense is very top heavy.  Jose Ramirez may just be putting together an MVP season, and no doubt Francisco Lindor will be in the top ten, and maybe top five as well.

Ramirez is threatening to put together the greatest season ever by a major league third baseman.  Think about that for a second.

As great as that duo has been, and they have been supported by Michael Brantley, and to a lesser extent, Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso, the bottom of the order can have either three or four hitters who are struggling.

The need for another solid bat makes the handling of Yandy Diaz more curious.

In the minor leagues, Diaz has been an on base machine, a .454 figure last season at Columbus, followed up by a .414 figure this season.

Unfortunately, the Indians’ organization has pigeonholed him as a third baseman, and as we already mentioned, that spot is being manned in Cleveland by perhaps the AL most valuable player.

Diaz doesn’t fit the new hot thing in baseball today, which would be launch angle.  Although he hits the ball as hard as many in the sports, but he doesn’t hit it in the air, and that results in very few extra base hits.  His slugging percentage is at .392, down from last year’s .460.

So, why the Joey Gallo’s of the world are thought to be good hitters, Yandy Diaz is not.

While Diaz doesn’t hit with power, what he doesn’t do is make outs.  He gets on base over 40% of the time, and even last year with the Indians, he had an OBP of .352 in 2017.  That figure would rank behind only Ramirez, Lindor, and Lonnie Chisenhall on this year’s roster.

Remember, when Cleveland had their 22 game winning streak in 2017, Diaz was basically the regular third baseman because Jason Kipnis was hurt, and Ramirez was moved to second.

The big question for us is with the issues the Tribe has had in the outfield this season, why didn’t they move Diaz to RF and work with him in spring training.  He played 27 games there in 2016 and nine games in 2017.

Couldn’t he play the position at least as well as, let’s say, Melky Cabrera?  No one expects him to be Roberto Clemente out there.  What we’ve seen of him at the hot corner doesn’t suggest that he’s a butcher in the field.

It would seem to us that his bat could help the big club.  He takes walks, makes contact, and when he was called up for four games right after the All Star Game, he went 7 for 14 with the Indians.

Diaz’ offensive prowess is being wasted because he will be 27 years old in a few days (August 8th to be exact), but for some reason, the organization doesn’t seem anxious to find a way to get his bat into the lineup.

A lineup that needs a boost.  A lineup that is short on players who can get on base.  A lineup that lost one of its best on base percentage guys last off-season in Carlos Santana.

What is the organization’s problem with Yandy Diaz?  Instead of looking for a way to get his bat in there, there seem to be burying him.

MW

 

 

Tribe Makes A Solid Move In Getting Martin

It wasn’t a splashy trade deadline for the Cleveland Indians, but since play resumed after the All Star Game, there is no question the front office tried to address the Tribe’s weaknesses.

Getting Brad Hand and Adam Cimber helped the bullpen for sure, and in fact, with Cody Allen struggling a bit, it seems like Terry Francona is reshuffling the deck with how he uses his relief corps.

Yesterday, the Tribe improved their centerfield spot by trading for Leonys Martin, getting him from Detroit for SS Willi Castro, who was playing at AA Akron.

Martin replaces Tyler Naquin, who isn’t really a centerfielder, and Greg Allen, who was being rushed to the majors.  Since Naquin was getting the bulk of the playing time, the defense also gets a boost.

A left-handed hitter, Martin was batting .251 with 9 HR and 29 RBI (731 OPS) with the Tigers, but vs. right-handed pitching, he’s hitting .275 with a 783 OPS.

We say center isn’t totally improved because Martin is a platoon piece, and against lefties, Rajai Davis, with an OPS under 600 against southpaws, will still be out there.

While Martin isn’t a “big name”, he definitely improves the Cleveland roster.  The acquisition reminds me of getting Brandon Guyer at the deadline in 2016.  That move wasn’t greeted with enthusiasm either, but Guyer was a big factor in the Tribe’s march to game seven of the World Series.

The front office made a rare trade of minor leaguers too, getting OF Oscar Mercado from the St. Louis Cardinals for Connor Capel, who was at Lynchburg, and Jhan Torres, who is in rookie ball.

Mercado was ranked the Cardinals’ 8th best prospect by Baseball America in their mid-season prospect ratings, and the report is he has developed a short quick stroke with power.  He is regarded as a very good defensive outfielder and top flight speed.

At 23 years old, he is playing at AAA Memphis, hitting .285 with 8 HR and 42 RBI (759 OPS) and 31 stolen bases.

If he doesn’t get called up before this season ends (he likely will be after September 1st), he could be a candidate for a starting job next season, particularly with Bradley Zimmer possibility out until the all star break next season with a shoulder issue.

We would have liked to see another bullpen arm, especially with Neil Ramirez leaking oil just a bit, but Andrew Miller could be back as soon as next week, and as we all know, that could be a gigantic piece if the big lefty is back to form.

And while Martin does help, it would have been nice to have an everyday guy in centerfield instead of a platoon piece.  Terry Francona is a master at using the platoon advantage, but we are sure he would like to do that on a limited basis.

Right now, we still think the batting order is one hitter short of being elite.  There are too many games where the bottom of the order is contributing only a couple hits.  That puts a lot of pressure on the top of the order, and with Michael Brantley struggling since the break, the offense isn’t clicking.

Leonys Martin isn’t a flashy name, but he’s a solid defensive centerfielder and can be a good bat against righties.

The Indians roster is better today than they were yesterday morning.  That means the front office did their job.

MW

The Tribe Outfield Dilemma: Need Offense and Defense

The Major League Baseball trading deadline is just hours away and the Cleveland Indians still some holes they need to fix if they want to compete the “big three” of the American League:  The Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees.

As has been documented before, the Cleveland lineup is very top heavy.  Once you get past the first five hitters in Terry Francona’s batting order, it is a virtual desert.

In our opinion, to have a good offense you need to have seven solid bats in the lineup.  That leaves the Tribe two good hitters short.

It is a testament to how great Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yonder Alonso have been that the Indians rank 2nd in the American League in runs scored.

The balance of the order, particularly the outfielders, aren’t getting it done.  Yes, Brandon Guyer has started hammering lefties lately, but the centerfield platoon of Tyler Naquin and Rajai Davis isn’t getting it done, and Melky Cabrera has a 626 OPS as well.

It’s particularly tough for the offense when Roberto Perez, hitting .144, is catching.

Suffice it to say, the Tribe could use another bat or two to protect itself for when the top five is having a rare day where they aren’t hitting.

But here is where the rub is, the other problem for the Indians is their defense in the outfield.  Davis has been okay defensively, but Naquin is a corner outfielder at his core, and struggles in center.

In rightfield, Cabrera is below average with the glove, and Michael Brantley is at this point in his career probably should be a designated hitter.

When your starting pitchers are as good as Cleveland’s, shouldn’t you support them with solid defense?

Right now, no one is giving up centerfielders who can go get balls in the gap and can also be a factor with a bat in his hand.  So, it seems Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff have a decision to make.  Do they just punt on the defense and go for the bat, or get a solid glove man and try to manufacture runs some other way.

One move the team could make is the same one they made late last season, moving Jason Kipnis to center.  That would allow Francona to move Ramirez to second base, and have Yandy Diaz, an on base machine to man the hot corner.

It would seem that Diaz in the lineup over Naquin and his .295 on base percentage (651 OPS) would help the offense.

Getting a better platoon partner for Guyer in RF would also help, and we would suggest getting former St. Ignatius High standout Derek Dietrich from the Marlins if possible.

Dietrich has a .348 on base percentage and a .824 OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season, which would be a perfect match for Guyer.

We are definitely not a fan of Joey Gallo, also mentioned in rumors.  He has a 751 OPS vs. righties and his numbers away from Texas (.167 batting average, 656 OPS) aren’t ideal.

That’s the dilemma for the Cleveland front office.  They need an offensive boost, mostly in the outfield, but they need an upgrade defensively out there as well.  It doesn’t appear there is a player available out there that fixes both problems.

So, it may be that two moves are needed.

There is some pressure on Antonetti and Chernoff, unless they want to move Kipnis, but we don’t know if that move fixes either issue.

MW

The Kipnis Question

Certainly, one of the Cleveland Indians who has stirred up much debate this season is Jason Kipnis.

From the time he was called up in 2011 to the end of the 2016 World Series, Kipnis was a mainstay for the Tribe, one of their core players and one of their best offensive players.

However, since that time, Kipnis has battled injuries and a lack of production.  And because his salary has jumped from a reported $9.17 million last season to $13.67 million in 2018, there are a lot of fans who want to move on, feeling that amount of cash could be spent elsewhere.

Last year, Kipnis batted .232 with a 705 OPS, this year, those numbers have declined further, with a .219 batting average and a 669 OPS.

His supporters will say he was turned the corner after a rough April and May, but since June 1st, he’s batted .252, with 7 HR and 20 RBIs.  Over the last 28 days, he’s at .242 with an 800 OPS.

He hasn’t been able to maintain any success though.  Over the past 14 days, his average is .207 with a respectable 757 OPS.

Defensively, he’s average at best, although my eyes tell me he doesn’t get to the balls he used to get four to five years ago, and he’s never been tremendous turning double plays.  This isn’t to say he’s horrible with the glove, but we think having Jose Ramirez there (and we know he’s having a historic season at 3B), would improve the defense.

Kipnis’ struggles at the plate are magnified by the Indians’ problems in centerfield and rightfield.  If they were getting decent production out of those spots, the scenario would be more like “if Kip would just get going, it would be great”.

As it is, when Roberto Perez is behind the plate, Terry Francona puts out a lineup where the 6th through 9 hitters in batting order are pretty weak.  Besides Perez (459 OPS), he puts out Rajai Davis (606 OPS), Brandon Guyer (640 OPS), and Kipnis.

That isn’t good enough for a contending team.

We have seen people talk about how well Kipnis has hit since June 1st.  In fact, several people have pointed out that he was hitting better than the recently traded Manny Machado since that point.

However, that’s the problem with picking an arbitrary date.  As Hall of Fame manager Sparky Anderson used to point out, the season starts on a certain date.  The games starting on Opening Day count just as much as the ones played today.

Besides, on June 1st, Kipnis was hitting .199 with a 586 OPS.  He’s raised his average only 20 points in that time, and his OPS is up 83 points.

We reported what he has done since June 1st above.  It’s not like he’s been at an all-star level since that date.  He’s been a little better than average.  So, he was terrible for the first 55 games, and above average since.  It’s not as though he’s been torrid since then.

We didn’t advocate dealing Kipnis during the winter because coming off a bad year, they would be getting fifty cents on the dollar.

Now, the front office will be in a position where if they want to move him, they will likely have to pick up some of his $14.6 million salary for next year.

Perhaps Kipnis will get blazing hot from now until the end of the year.  After almost a year and a half of mediocrity, that doesn’t seem likely.  It is something the Tribe will have to face up to before July 31st.

MW

Tribe’s Replaceable Four

The other day, we discussed the “slump” that the Cleveland Indians’ front office has been in since the end of last season.

We have all realized the Tribe’s roster is top heavy, and it needs more depth.  We also assume the Indians will be really be a player for a guy like Manny Machado, because they will not be interested in giving up a high ranking prospect for a player who would be with Cleveland for basically two months.

That said, here is a list of players the Indians should be looking at replacing, if only to get incrementally better.

Rajai Davis.  We understand he’s a great teammate, great locker room presence, etc…, but Davis was never a great hitter, and this year, he’s worse.

He’s a lifetime 693 OPS and a .312 on base average, and this year, those figures have dropped to 587 and .297, respectively.  He has been terrible vs. lefties (491 OPS), and his lone skill remaining is the ability to steal bases, which of course, is meaningless unless he is used as a pinch runner.

Getting someone else who can at least contribute offensively would benefit the bench.  The pit of misery that is centerfield this season is a reason why getting a player like Adam Jones from Baltimore would be an upgrade.

Brandon Guyer.  Guyer was tremendous when he came over from Tampa Bay in 2016, hitting .333 (907 OPS), and had an OPS over 1000 vs. southpaws.  He has battled injuries since then, and he’s not the same lethal bat against left-handers.

Guyer still has a very good 853 OPS against lefties, but his batting average vs. southpaws is just .250.  And while he was passable vs. RHP, he is 2 for 44 this season.

Could Guyer finish strong?  Of course, but his offensive numbers have been in decline since 2016, and that’s not a good trend.  Getting the ’16 Guyer to replace him would be optimal.

Zach McAllister/Dan Otero.  Both right-handers have been mainstays in the Cleveland bullpen over the past few years, but let’s face it, relievers are relievers for a reason, and it may be their usefulness with the Tribe is at an end.

Since moving to the pen, McAllister has always been a strikeout per inning guy and allowed about a hit per inning, but to this point, his whiffs are down (29 in 36-1/3 IP) and his hits allowed are up (42 hits).  He has been prone to the gopher ball, and that number has increased too.

Otero was great in his first year with the Indians in 2016, with an ERA of 1.53, and last year that figure did go up, but was a very respectable 2.85.

This year, his ERA has virtually doubled at 5.60.  The biggest stat that stands out is he is allowing home runs at the highest rate of his career.  He had a similar year with Oakland in 2015, but if the Indians get a couple of bullpen arms at the deadline, both of these guys could be moved elsewhere.

We didn’t address Roberto Perez because he the Indians value his defense more than they dislike his offense.  And Greg Allen was omitted from the list because he need probably can use more time in the minors.

Again, even if you don’t add a star, upgrading the roster incrementally can make a difference. Remember what the Guyer acquisition meant in ’16.  He had a big hit in Game 2 of the ALDS vs. David Price and Boston.

Coco Crisp was picked up on August 31st that year and hit two post-season homers and went 4 for 12 in the World Series.

Sometimes, small subtle moves can prove important.  Getting more production at these four spots could make a big difference in October.

MW