Retired Numbers Should Be For The Elite.

With Tristan Thompson perhaps (probably) playing his last game as a Cleveland Cavalier because the NBA season for the wine and gold is over, the subject of retired numbers came up regarding the franchise, and we wanted to weigh in with our thoughts.

First, let’s clarify a few rules.  Much like Hall of Fame debates, you cannot use the fact that someone’s number has been retired and shouldn’t have as an argument to retire a number.

For example, Nate Thurmond’ s number was retired by Cleveland even though the big man played a shade of a season (114 games total) with the Cavs.  That shouldn’t justify anyone else who played that short of time with the team having their number hanging from the rafters.

Second, a player should play the majority of his career with the team who is retiring his number.  So, people who want the Indians to retire C.C. Sabathia’s number would be on the wrong side of this argument.

The lefty pitched here for eight seasons, but spent 11 seasons in pinstripes.

In our opinion, retiring a players’ number should be reserved for the elitist of players, the crème de la crème if you will.

So, Thompson will likely fit the longevity factor, but although he was a key piece of the squads that went to four straight NBA Finals, he’s never been an elite player.  Heck, he’s never made an All Star team.

One of the reason’s the Cavs have so many uniform numbers retired was to draw people to games when they had bad records.

Austin Carr?  He deserves the honor.  He’s 6th all time in games played and still ranks 4th in points scored, and he was the franchise’s first marquee player.  He’s called Mr. Cavalier, and with good reason.

Mark Price was the first Cleveland player to make first team All-NBA, and made four all star appearances, his teammate, Brad Daugherty, made five all star appearances.

We will agree to them, and of course, LeBron James’ #23 will be honored when his playing days end.

Larry Nance?  Played more games with the Suns than with the Cavs (and we loved Nance as a player).  And it pains us to say it, because his jersey retirement started bridging the gap between the team and James, but Zydrunas Ilgauskas’s number shouldn’t be retired either.

As for the future, the second clause would keep Kyrie Irving’s number in play, because he likely will play more games for another team than the Cavs.

The Indians got caught in the same attendance driven trap as well, so they started retiring too many numbers.

Obviously, Bob Feller’s #19 should get the honor.  He’s the greatest player in the history of the franchise.  And we would also agree with Lou Boudreau’s #5, Bob Lemon’s #21, and Jim Thome’s #25 never being worn again.

And Larry Doby’s historical significance, even though he’s ignored nationally, merit’s his #14 being taken out of circulation.  The fact he was also a great player makes him even more worthy.

But Earl Averill?  Most people outside of Cleveland don’t know who he is, even though he’s in Cooperstown.  Mel Harder pitched here a long time, and was very good, but…

Frank Robinson deserves the statue commemorating him as the major league’s first African-American manager, but his number should not be retired in Cleveland.  In Baltimore?  Absolutely, but not here.

The Browns have retired five jerseys, although the number retirement is less prevalent in the NFL.  Iconic players Otto Graham (#14), Lou Groza (#76), and the great Jim Brown (#32) will never have their numbers worn again, and we can understand retiring #45, commemorating the tragic story of Ernie Davis, who passed from leukemia before ever playing with the Browns.

The other retired number is another tragic story, that of Don Fleming (#46), who was a starting safety for Cleveland from 1960-62, and was electrocuted working construction during the off-season in June, 1963.

Our guess is the Browns will be retiring another number soon, when Joe Thomas is elected into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, his #73 will not be worn again.

To us, the jersey retirement should be a very special thing, reserved for the greats of the great for each franchise.

Adding players who aren’t worthy cheapens the honor for those special players.

MW

Solving The Indians’ OF Puzzle

As much as the infield of the Cleveland Indians is certain, the outfield is just the opposite as we possibly head into a second spring training.

The only player who can seemingly be penciled in to an everyday spot is centerfielder Oscar Mercado, and he has just 115 games and 482 plate appearances under his belt, although Franmil Reyes will be in there someplace, either in the outfield or as the DH.

The front office seems to be relying on Terry Francona and his staff working their magic and put the puzzle pieces together and provide the team with the proper mix of hitting and defense.

Reyes is the starting point because at age 23, he belted 37 homers and knocked in 81 (822 OPS).  He would seem to be the middle of the order power bat the Tribe has been looking for years.

The Indians would like him to at least play rightfield at a decent level so he can be out there about 25-50% of the time, opening up the DH spot to give other players a partial day off.

The hope is his plate discipline will improve with experience, making him an elite offensive player.

Another player is must figure in the Indians’ plans is Jordan Luplow, at the very least a prime platoon piece, and hopefully a guy who can figure in the everyday lineup.

Luplow, 26, hit .320 with 14 dingers vs. southpaws (1.181 OPS) last season, but his minor league history doesn’t show huge disparities in his numbers vs. right-handers.  He did hit just .216 with one homer vs. those pitchers in 2019.

He’s solid defensively, so he should get a good opportunity to see regular playing time is he is capable against righties, but worst case scenario he is valuable for what he can do against lefties.

Newcomer Domingo Santana also figures to get plenty of playing time, but it may be based on how much Reyes can play in the outfield.  The right-handed hitter is just three years removed from a 30 HR season with the Brewers, and before a hand injury last season was hitting .286 with 18 bombs for the Mariners (850 OPS).

He struggles defensively though, so if Reyes can’t play RF well, Francona will have to pick his spots playing him in the field.

As for Mercado, it remains to be seen how he plays this year.  Here is his OPS by month a year ago–

May:  52 plate appearances, 819 OPS
June:  115 PA, 844 OPS
July:  103 PA, 757 OPS
August:  100 PA, 573 OPS
September:  112 PA, 827 OPS

And you know what they say about ignoring numbers from April and September.  So, the question remains, did the league make an adjustment to Mercado, and can he make one of his own?

With the delay in the start of the season, it means Tyler Naquin should be ready to go as well.  Naquin could form a platoon partner with Luplow in LF, similar to what he did when Yasiel Puig came over at the trade deadline a year ago.

But Naquin had solid numbers vs. LHP last season, albeit in limited appearances (837 OPS in 63 at bats).  And he hit .289 vs. RHP with six homers.  His weakness?  He swings at everything, his walk rate has dropped from 9.9% in his rookie year to 4.8% in 2019.

And you also have Delino DeShields, who has struggled offensively for much of his career, and the last two seasons in particular, despite playing in an offensive paradise in Texas.

His career road numbers?  .207 BA, 574 OPS

He figures to be the back up plan should Mercado have a sophomore slump, and be used as a defensive replacement (he’s a very good defender) and pinch-runner.

The partial season seems to hurt players like Greg Allen and Bradley Zimmer, who needed to be productive in the minors to rebuild their value, and also Daniel Johnson, who hit very well at AA and AAA in ’19, but it will be difficult for him to make an impact on the brass.

There is no question the outfield is the weakest part of the Tribe’s roster, but hopefully, Terry Francona puts the puzzle in the correct alignment and gets some production.

If and when the Indians start to play, the microscope will be on this group.

MW

The Switch Hitting Infield Of The Tribe

There is no question that Cleveland Indians’ manager Terry Francona loves flexibility.  He loves relievers who can pitch to both right-handed and left-handed hitters, and he uses the platoon advantage more than any other skipper in the game.

Even though he is the best in the sport at that, we believe he loves switch-hitters because then he doesn’t have to worry about it.

The infield he will manage this season has that trait covered.  They all can hit from both sides of the plate.

With the signing of Cesar Hernandez in the off-season to man second base, most nights, Tito will pencil in the four switch-hitters at the four infield positions–

1B:  Carlos Santana
2B:  Hernandez
SS:  Francisco Lindor
3B:  Jose Ramirez

The left side of the infield features two of perhaps the 20 best players in the game in Lindor and Ramirez.  The shortstop is well regarded as one of the best five in baseball, and let’s not forget that Ramirez has two top three MVP finishes in the last three seasons.

Lindor, who won’t turn 27 until after the 2020 season (if there is one), is pretty even from both sides of the plate, having a 857 career OPS from the right side and a 832 OPS from the left side.

His slugging percentage is virtually the same from either side, but he’s a bit more patient hitting right handed.  He does hit more home runs from the left side though.

Ramirez, who turns 28 in September, is more lethal from the left side of the plate (career 850 OPS), but is still very good from the right side (808).  He also hits for a better average from the right side, but his slugging percentage from the left side is .494, 27 points higher than when he is facing southpaws.

The two superstars are also equally effective at home or on the road, but slightly better at Progressive Field.

Santana, the eldest of the group at 34, is actually a better hitter right-handed, which is odd because you think of most of his big hits as an Indian has come from the left side.

The first baseman has a 834 lifetime OPS from the right side, mostly due to a .277 batting average, which is 40 points higher than from the left side.  And he’s even more of an on base machine against lefties, .382 OBP vs. .360 vs. right-handers.

To us, he has always looked like he had a shorter swing hitting right-handed.

His batting average and OPS against RHP did improve last season, but he still was more effective against lefties.

The newcomer, Hernandez, just turned 30 a week ago, and he fits in with the others in that he is very similar from both sides of the dish, 736 career OPS vs. righties and 726 vs. left-handers.

His ability to get on base is the same from both sides, but his numbers show he has a little more pop (.385 slugging vs. .372) hitting from the left side.

The primary back up for Francona would figure to be Mike Freeman, a left-handed hitter who did a solid job for Cleveland last season, hitting .277 with a .362 on base percentage.

With the extra players expected to be on the roster for this season, we would bet right-handed hitting Christian Arroyo will be eligible for most games.  Once a top 100 prospect, Arroyo has been hampered by injuries and has accumulated just 228 big league at bats.  Still, he’s just 25 years old.

Yu Chang and rookie Nolan Jones, the Tribe’s top prospect, will also likely be on the traveling party this season.

With three all-stars, the Cleveland infield should be among the best in the game.  That is, if there is a baseball season at all.

MW

 

Looking At A Possible 50 Man Roster For The Tribe.

There has been a lot of discussion of what rosters for major league baseball teams will look like if a season gets underway in early July.

The most common model has been a 50 man pool in which each team can choose from, and a 30 player active roster for each game.

If that is the case, how do the Cleveland Indians make up the 50 players who will be eligible for this season?

You would presume the normal 40 man roster would be part of this equation, but in looking at the Tribe’s situation, that would mean you would have to make room for a third catcher (neither Beau Taylor or Cameron Rupp are currently on the 40 man), and neither is utility man Mike Freeman.

Another possible hurdle for the Indians is that only one of their Top 10 Prospects, RHP Triston McKenzie, is currently on the 40 man roster.  So, if the extra ten spots were being used for prospects, nine of them are already filled.

There is some normal jostling of the 40 man roster coming out of spring training anyway, so some of these moves would have had to be made anyway.  For example, Freeman would have probably made the team anyway, necessitating a move to the 40 man roster.

Does this mean the Indians will take the remaining nine top prospects, plus a third catcher as the ten extra men who can travel with the squad this season?

The Tribe’s prospect list is very young, so while they would love for those players not to miss a year of development, the only players who might be able to help the big league team this season are Nolan Jones and Tyler Freeman, and the latter has never played above the high A level.

Of prospects #11-#20 (we are using Baseball America’s list), many of those players are on the 40 man roster already:  #11 Logan Allen, #12 Bobby Bradley, #13 Scott Moss, #15 Emmanuel Clase, #16 James Karinchak, and #17 Sam Hentges.

Karinchak figured to make the Opening Day roster anyway.

That would seem to leave these players needing a place to develop in 2020:  #14 RHP Carlos Vargas (highest level Mahoning Valley), #18 RHP Luis Oviedo (Lake County), #19 SS Yordys Valdes (Arizona Rookie League), and #20 SS Angel Martinez (Dominican Rookie League).

We would think most big league club will have extended spring training going for these younger players with intrasquad games to provide competition.

Since the Indians share their Goodyear, Arizona facility with the Reds, our guess is those two organizations’ prospects will be very familiar with each other by the end of the summer.

The Indians could make more room on the proposed 50 man squad by sending some of their younger players in the top ten to their complex as well.

We are talking about players like last year’s first round pick RHP Daniel Espino (#6), RHP Ethan Hankins (#8), SS Gabriel Rodriguez (#10) and perhaps even OF George Valera (#4), SS Brayan Rocchio (#5), and 2B Aaron Brocho (#9).

The key there is will the sport allow these younger players to have access to the spring training facilities.  Although if there is a season, we don’t see why that would not be allowed.

Usually, you can look at the 40 man roster, and see some candidates to be let go, but we don’t believe the Indians have players like that who could sneak through waivers and remain part of the organization.

Maybe a player like RHP Jean Carlos Mejia, who at 23 has never pitched above the High Class A level, but the other candidates would be INF Christian Arroyo, who the Indians traded for a year ago and was a top prospect beset by injuries, Yu Chang, or players like Greg Allen and/or Bradley Zimmer, and it would be a shock if the organization moved on from them.

If the players and owners can agree to a system that works for this year, it will certainly be different from the norm, but the strategy of organizations will be interesting.

How the Indians react will no doubt be discussed at large when the decisions are made.

MW

In Praise Of Cookie Carrasco

Virtually every major league baseball team has one.  That player who is identified with the franchise.  They played in that town for their entire career, and they are that franchise’s Mr. ________.

And it’s not just restricted to large market cities.  Kansas City has George Brett.  Milwaukee has Robin Yount.  Cincinnati has Johnny Bench and likely Joey Votto as well.

Minnesota has Joe Mauer and Kirby Puckett.  Baltimore has Cal Ripken Jr.  Atlanta?  Chipper Jones.

Some cities have had these type of players, but unfortunately, they have passed away.  We mentioned Puckett, and the Pirates had Roberto Clemente and Willie Stargell. The Cubs had Ernie Banks.

Currently, St. Louis has Yadier Molina and Washington has Ryan Zimmerman.

The Indians had Bob Feller, arguably the best Tribesman ever.  However, what did those other players do that Feller didn’t?  The all played within the last 50 years.

Feller retired in 1956.  That’s 64 years ago.

Could the Indians have such a player on their roster right now?  Well, as a matter of fact, they may.  He may not be a superstar or a Hall of Famer, but they have a player who may play his entire career in northeast Ohio.  It’s Carlos Carrasco.

Carrasco is beginning his 11th season with the organization, coming over in the trade that sent Cliff Lee to Philadelphia.

The other players who came with him were infielder Jason Donald, who was moved in the deal that brought Trevor Bauer to Cleveland after the 2012 season, Lou Marson, who left as a free agent in 2013, and never played in the bigs again, and Jason Knapp, who developed arm trouble.

Carrasco came up to the Tribe late in ’09 for five starts, and spent most of ’10 in the minors as well, making seven starts and finishing with a 3.83 ERA in 45 innings.

Cookie opened with the big club in 2011, and was a mainstay in the rotation, making 21 starts before he injured his elbow, necessitating Tommy John surgery, which kept him out through the 2012 season.

He made one April start in ’13, but spent much of the first half of that season in AAA, before coming up in July.  He struggled in six starts after coming back and finished the year in the bullpen.

In 2014, he again struggled opening the year as a starter, allowing 17 runs in 19 innings in four starts, and was again moved to relief.

It was in the bullpen that he revitalized his career.

The right-hander made 26 appearances out of the bullpen, going 3-1 with a save and a 2.30 ERA, striking out 39 batters in 43 innings.

On August 10th of that year, the Indians needed a starter in a game at Yankee Stadium, and Terry Francona and then pitching coach Mickey Callaway went with Carrasco, telling him to use the same aggressiveness he used in the ‘pen.

Carrasco allowed two hits over five shutout innings, striking out four.  He made nine more starts the rest of the season, pitching to a 1.30 ERA, and fanning 78 hitters.  Included was a two hit shutout against Houston.

From there, Carrasco became one of the American League’s most reliable starting pitchers, going 60-36 with a 3.40 ERA from 2015 to 2019.

Last year, as everyone knows, he was diagnosed with leukemia, and missed three months before coming back to pitch in relief in September.

This season, he will be back in the starting rotation, and should be back to being one of the premier starters in the American League.

He’s also under contract with a club option through 2023, meaning he likely will finish his career here, and likely will wear just one team’s uniform, the Cleveland Indians.

He’s been underrated by fans here, mostly because he’s pitched on the same staff as Corey Kluber, but people around baseball know how good of a pitcher Carlos Carrasco is.

That’s one of the best in the game.

 

Municipal Memories Of The Tribe

Hopefully, the owners and players can come together soon on an agreement to get baseball back on the field sooner than later, and we will have some sort of season this summer.

Until then, we thought we’d write about some Municipal Stadium memories.  Games played at the old ballpark that don’t really carry any special historic significance but when friends get together, they always come up.

Here are two of them:

May 17, 1978 vs. the Yankees:  The Tribe came into this one at 15-16, six games behind the Tigers and Red Sox who were tied for 1st in the American League East.  The Yankees were 19-12, two behind.

Lefty Rick Waits started for the Indians, and he would pitch a much more important game vs. New York later in the season, defeating the Yankees on the last day of the year to force a one game playoff vs. Boston.

Ed Figueroa started for New York and the Yanks got to Waits early, opening with three straight hits, the third, a double by Thurman Munson, plated a run, and a groundout by Reggie Jackson plated a second.

Cleveland scored a run in the second to cut the lead in half, but NY scored two more in the third, a single by Roy White and an error to make it 4-1.  And when Waits got in trouble in the fourth, Tribe manager Jeff Torborg went for another southpaw, Sid Monge.

Monge came over from the Angels the year before with Bruce Bochte with Cleveland sending Dave LaRoche to California.  Monge was terrible for the rest of 1977, with a 6.23 ERA in 33 games, but he was back for the ’78 season, and had only been in two games, allowing four runs in five innings.

The Tribe drew closer with two in the bottom of the 4th on a two run single by Rick Manning.  Meanwhile, Monge was mowing down New York hitters, weirdly, based on his track record.  He allowed a lead off hit to Munson in the top of the fifth, but retired the next seven hitters.

The Tribe tied it in the bottom of the seventh on a Buddy Bell single, and Monge kept getting hitters out.  Not allowing a hit after the Munson single in the fifth.

Cleveland won it in the 10th on a triple by Paul Dade and a single by Manning.

Monge would up pitching 6-1/3 innings allowing one run and two walks.  He made two starts shortly after, but as a reliever, he went 4-2 with six saves and a 2.34 ERA.

September 28, 1984:  The Indians weren’t on NBC’s Game of the Week very often in these days, but they were to be the next day because Kansas City and Minnesota were neck and neck in the AL West standings, and the Tribe was playing the Twins.

We were sitting a couple of rows in front of NBC’s Tony Kubek for the Friday night game, and Minnesota took a 10-0 lead after two and a half innings of starter Jerry Ujdur and relievers Jeff Barkley and Jamie Easterly.

Our group yelled back to Kubek jokingly that the Tribe was coming back, but several guys in our group decided to spend the rest of the night in The Flats.

Frank Viola was on the hill for the Twins, his last start in a year where he went 18-12 with a 3.21 ERA.

The Indians got two in the bottom of the third, but erupted for seven in the bottom of the sixth to get back in the game.  Andre Thornton homered, Jerry Willard had a two run single, a Brett Butler double, an error, and a two run single by Thornton made it 10-9.

In the bottom of the eighth against Twins’ closer Ron Davis, Joe Carter hit a mammoth home run deep in the lower deck in left to tie it up.

Davis walked two of the first three hitters in the ninth, before being relieved.  Mel Hall singled to load the bases and Butler won it with another hit.

The loss knocked the Twins out of the division race, and the guys who went to The Flats?  They couldn’t believe it.

MW

 

Can Tito Afford To Be Patient In A Short Season?

One of the greatest attributes Terry Francona has as a manager is his patience.  Sometimes, we feel that patience can become stubbornness, and although it irritates the fan in us at times, it works out more often than not.

With Major League Baseball discussing an 81 (or so) game schedule for the 2020 season, the question is, how will Francona’s fabled patience play out with a shortened slate?

In each of the seasons that Francona has been the Tribe’s skipper, a player has received an extreme benefit of the doubt.  In a half-season, it would seem Tito would have to have a shorter hook.

Going back to 2013, Francona’s first year with the Tribe, it was Mark Reynolds.  The slugger and frequent whiffer got off to a great start for the Indians, hitting .301 with 8 HR and a 1.019 OPS in April.

May wasn’t too bad, with Reynolds adding five more dingers, but he batted just .218 and the OPS went down to 696.

In June, Cleveland played 28 games.  Reynolds started 25 of them and batted .187 with a 541 OPS, and then out of 25 games in July, the slugger started 15 and hit .098 with a 331 OPS.

From May 1st through the end of July, Reynolds batted .181 with 7 HR, 25 RBI, and somehow stayed in the lineup.  That’s three months of terrible production.

In 2014, Nick Swisher received 401 plate appearances contributing just 8 homers and 42 RBI (608 OPS).  Swisher was a veteran who had a solid year with the Tribe in ’13 and was battling injuries, but maybe Jesus Aguilar, who posted a 905 OPS in AAA Columbus, could’ve received a shot at seeing what he could contribute.

And not to pick on Swisher, but that club had two other players (Jason Kipnis and Michael Bourn) who played a lot but had OPS under 700.

Bourn received the benefit of the doubt the following year until he (along with Swisher) was dealt to Atlanta in early August.  The centerfielder hit just .249 without a home run, and even worse, stole only 13 bases in 18 attempts.

To be fair to Francona, he didn’t really have many alternatives, although Abraham Almonte did provide a spark (776 OPS) when given an opportunity.

In 2016, it was Juan Uribe (591 OPS in 238 at bats) before Jose Ramirez took over the hot corner.  Uribe was released in early August.

You see the pattern.  Over a 162 game season, you are more likely to overcome a bad month or two at a position, but will the same be true in a short season?

Certainly, the proven players will and should get the benefit of the doubt.  No skipper in his right mind is going to bench Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Carlos Santana because they had a bad week.

But the Tribe is transitioning at a lot of positions.  Let’s say Oscar Mercado gets off to a slow start over the first three weeks, can Francona afford to keep him in there if the ballclub is struggling to score runs?

Tito’s instinct might be to let the young guy work things out, and many times, it works out the right way in the long run.  However, it doesn’t appear there will be a long run in 2020.

It’s also a moot point if the Indians are winning.  You can afford to have some struggling players figure it out while they are playing if the team is successful.  But if the Indians are scuffling, the pressure will be there to make changes before the season is lost.

No matter what, it will be a period of adjustment for every manager in the bigs, not just Terry Francona.  Who adjusts best will have a leg up on the competition in what figures to be a weird baseball season.

MW

Doing Everything To Keep Lindor Is Still Tribe’s Best Move

Even though baseball is on hiatus due to the pandemic, it still made news in Cleveland yesterday, when The Athletic’s Keith Law said on a local radio show that Francisco Lindor and his agent won’t entertain the Indians long term contract offer.

First, we will disclose that we are of the opinion the Indians should do everything they can to keep Lindor in a Cleveland uniform, and we understand the financial aspects of that thought process.

Lindor and his agent know he will be the prime free agent on the market following the 2021 season, and they also understand he will command one of the highest salaries ever given to a major league baseball player.

Our guess is the Indians haven’t talked to their star shortstop about a deal anywhere near the money or the amount of years he will command in free agency, and that’s why serious negotiations haven’t taken place.

On the other hand, Tribe president Chris Antonetti said prior to spring training that the parties have talked, and Lindor said shortly after camp started that he did not want to talk about his contract status during the season, and the talks were done until the end of this season.

Perhaps the delay in the sport hasn’t affected Lindor’s thinking and he wants to stay focused on the season, whenever it starts, and he is just being true to his word.

Let us also say that Lindor has the right to be a free agent, and go through that process.

It’s also possible that Law spoke to someone who doesn’t know what is going on, although we are confident that he trusts his source.

Why would we keep Lindor?  Because it is hard for us to fathom that a contending team, and the Indians are certainly that, improve their ballclub by dealing a great player.

If the Tribe was in decline, and finished around .500 this season, a considerable dip from three consecutive division titles and 93 win team a year ago, and they were an aging squad as well, there is no doubt it would be advisable to move the shortstop and start the rebuilding process.

But that’s not the case.

The Indians’ oldest regular player is Carlos Santana at age 34, followed by Roberto Perez (31) and Cesar Hernandez (30).  Cleveland can be out of Santana’s and Hernandez’ deal following the 2020 campaign.

On the pitching side, only Carlos Carrasco (33), Oliver Perez (37), and Brad Hand (30) would be considered past their prime (assuming prime is 27-29).

We understand the Indians’ claims of financial constraints, but we feel dealing Lindor will bring you–1). A top prospect who likely will not ever be as good as Lindor.  2).  Another mid range prospect who will have a solid major league career, and 3). some low level prospects who would be wild cards.

Keep in mind, Cleveland’s farm system is very strong at the lower levels, so they have a bunch of wild cards.

We would make it worth Francisco Lindor’s while to want to stay right here.  However, he wants to win, and he’s been here for five years and has seen the front office/ownership not making a commitment to win a World Series.

In the last 12 months, he has watched the front office trim a whole lot of payroll money, with not a lot reinvested in the team.  That concerns us, and no doubt it concerns him.

He said over the winter that he would want assurances the franchise will remain competitive.

If the alternative for the Tribe is losing Lindor and getting nothing, then a trade is better than that, but we would do everything we can to keep Lindor an Indian long term.

That’s the best case scenario.

MW

 

Tribe’s Window Still Tied To Lindor.

There are rumblings that Major League Baseball could get underway in late June/early July with a new three ten team division set up and a truncated season.

That would be music to the ears of all baseball fans and provide at least some sense of normality this summer.

Matt Loede asked if any Cleveland sports team was close to winning a championship, and our reply was the Indians were closest, but the Browns had a bigger window.

The Tribe’s immediate opening is tied to their shortstop Francisco Lindor, in our opinion.

With Lindor here this season, and perhaps next, the Indians have a chance to win.  Along with Jose Ramirez, Cleveland has a pair of the top position players in the game, along with a solid young starting pitching staff.

Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger should form a top of the rotation that is the envy of most teams in the majors, and if Carlos Carrasco is healthy, we already know he is capable of being one of the top ten starting pitchers in the game.

That’s a pretty good base to start with.

Among the position players, Franmil Reyes seems poised to have a monster season at the plate providing big time power in the middle of the lineup, and Carlos Santana is coming off his best season, but has turned 34 years old.

Cleveland values defense behind the plate, and they have that in Roberto Perez and Sandy Leon.

However, without Lindor, and Santana aging, you can see holes popping up in the everyday lineup.

Yes, you would still have Ramirez and Reyes, but then what?

The farm system is loaded, but that strength is located in the lower rungs of the system.  Top prospect Nolan Jones would have seen some time at Columbus this season, and #2 prospect Tyler Freeman would have been at Akron, but the rest of the top ten position players, save for DH Bobby Bradley, haven’t played above the low Class A level, meaning they are a few years away.

As for the pitching, Carrasco would be 34 when 2022 (the year Lindor is a free agent) hits.  While fans like the potential of young starters Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale, the reality is both have pitched less than one year in the big leagues.

They also have Logan Allen and Scott Moss (acquired in the Trevor Bauer deal last July), who will likely have started in AAA in 2020.

We also know that pitching is very volatile, and outside of Bieber, Clevinger, and Carrasco, none of the youngsters have any kind of track record.

As for the bullpen, we’ve seen how shaky that can be with Emmanuel Clase being suspended for 80 games whenever baseball resumes play.

With Lindor, the Indians have a solid base and can fill in at other spots in the lineup with players like Oscar Mercado, Jordan Luplow, Jake Bauers, and Tyler Naquin.

However, let’s look at where the Tribe will be in ’22.  Lindor could be gone (yes, we are taking a foolishly optimistic view), and Santana can’t be counted on at age 36.

Can you have a contending team with two proven bats, Ramirez and Reyes?  Perhaps one of the aforementioned players can step up to join them, or maybe Jones and Tyler Freeman becomes the next great rookie talents.

Same with the pitching staff, can Plesac and Civale follow the success of Bieber and Clevinger?

If baseball is played this season, perhaps by the end of that season, we will have a better idea as to how long the Indians’ window of contention can remain open.

Until then, the window is tied to Lindor.  We would love to see all of the prospects emerge as stars, but the reality says that is unlikely to happen.

MW

So Close…The 2007 ALCS

The 2007 baseball season is one of the big “what ifs” of Cleveland sports history.

Mostly because we all assume if the Indians, who had a 3-1 lead in the American League Championship Series over the Boston Red Sox, had played in the World Series against Colorado, they would have steamrolled them much like Terry Francona’s team did in a four game sweep.

Instead, the series is viewed as another huge disappointment.

The series began in Fenway Park with the Tribe getting bludgeoned 10-3.  After both teams scored single tallies in the first, the Sox scored four in the third, three in the fifth, and two in the sixth.

C.C. Sabathia gave up eight runs in 4-1/3 innings, and with the ace getting hammered, things didn’t look good.

Especially with Curt Schilling pitching Game 2 for Boston.

It looked more glum after the Red Sox scored three in the third to take a 3-1 lead.  But Jhonny Peralta hit a three run HR off Schilling in the 4th, and made it 5-3 when Grady Sizemore homered in the 5th.

Back-to-back dingers in the bottom half (Manny Ramirez and Mike Lowell) gave Boston a 6-5 lead, but Cleveland tied it in the top of the 6th.

And then no one scored.  For awhile, as the game headed to extra innings.

In the bottom of the 10th, the Sox had David Ortiz, Ramirez, and Lowell to face rookie Tom Mastny, after Eric Wedge had used his most reliable relievers, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt, and Jensen Lewis.

Talk about a feeling of dread…except Mastny retired them in order.

Cleveland scored seven in the top of the 11th, capped by Franklin Gutierrez’ grand slam homer (after run scoring hits by former Boston player Trot Nixon and Ryan Garko) and the Tribe went home even in the series.

Returning to Jacobs Field, the Indians won game three 4-2 with Jake Westbrook beating Boston, and Kenny Lofton hitting a two run homer, and took a commanding 3-1 series lead scoring seven runs in the 5th to win 7-3 behind Paul Byrd, who went five, and the bullpen.

Casey Blake and Peralta belted homers, and the Tribe was one win away from the pennant.

But Beckett spoiled the party, going eight innings in a 7-1 win.  It was a 1-1 tie heading into the 7th, but Sabathia had given up 8 hits in his six innings, and was over 100 pitches.

Wedge sent him back out there, and he gave up back-to-back extra base hits to Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, and the game spun out of control, sending the series back to Boston.

Game 6 was over before it started as Fausto Carmona (as he was known then) didn’t have it, giving up four in the first and six more in the third.  Meanwhile, Schilling rebounded from his poor Game 2 start to throw seven innings, allowing just two runs to set up a one game playoff for the American League pennant.

Westbrook got the start for Cleveland, while Daisuke Matsuzaka got the nod from Francona.  Before the game, it was revealed that Paul Byrd took HGH.  Byrd said it was prescribed by his doctor.

It created a stir in the Indians’ organization and locker room though.

Westbrook allowed seven hits in the first three innings, but limited Boston to just single tallies in each frame, so he kept his team in it.

The Indians crept back into the contest with runs in the fourth (doubles by Travis Hafner and Ryan Garko) and a sacrifice fly by Sizemore in the fifth, following three straight singles.  It could have been a bigger inning, but for Lofton getting thrown out trying to stretch the first hit into a double.

Westbrook held the Sox off the board through the sixth, so it was still a very close game heading to the seventh, with the Tribe trailing 3-2.

With one out, Lofton reached second on an error by Boston SS Julio Lugo.  The next batter, Gutierrez, singled and third base coach Joel Skinner held Lofton at third, putting runners on the corners with one out, and a golden chance to tie the game.

The hit was down the third base line and caromed off the wall at Fenway into short left field.  It looked as though Lofton hit third well before Ramirez picked up the ball in left, meaning it would have taken a great throw to get Lofton, who still had good speed.

Blake followed by swinging at the first pitch, banging into a 5-4-3 double play.  Threat ended.  And when Pedroia homered off Betancourt with a man on (ironically due to an error by Blake), the game was virtually over.

In retrospect, should Wedge have removed Sabathia earlier in game five to keep the game close?  Would the bullpen have held Game 7 if Skinner had not held Lofton?  Could the Indians have scored more had Lofton tied the game?

Those are the “what ifs”.  Another case of so close, but yet so far…

MW