How Is Tribe Roster Shaking Out?

There have been some standouts during the Cleveland Indians’ “summer camp” since the intrasquad games began a week ago.

Rookie Daniel Johnson was “Tito’s star” in the first game and Yu Chang has put on quite the power display since arriving in town on July 3rd.

However, how much of an impact do these performances have on the 30 man roster the team will finalize before the season begins a week from Friday at Progressive Field against the Royals (Danny Duffy will start for KC).

Here is how we see the players who will for sure be on the roster as of today:

Catchers (2): Roberto Perez, Sandy Leon
Infielders (4): Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
Oufielders (5): Franmil Reyes, Oscar Mercado, Jordan Luplow, Tyler Naquin, Domingo Santana
Starting rotation (5): Shane Bieber, Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac
Relievers (5): Brad Hand, Nick Wittgren, James Karinchak, Oliver Perez, Adam Cimber

That means 21 of the 30 spots are pretty much locked up barring injury or illness. We would include OF Delino DeShields, but it appears he will open the season on the 10 day injured list.

That leaves nine spots open.

We know at least one spot will go to a utility infielder, perhaps two to start. The three most likely candidates are Chang, Mike Freeman, and Christian Arroyo. Freeman isn’t currently on the 40 man roster, so he would have to be added if he makes the team.

Of the trio, Freeman is the most accomplished at the plate, hitting .272 last season with the Tribe. Chang is the best option at SS defensively. To this point, those two have performed the best in the scrimmages.

That makes 23.

At least one other outfielder will be added in DeShields’ absence, and right now, we suspect Greg Allen is the front runner. Another spot could open up if Luplow’s back becomes a problem, but if he’s healthy, he’ll be in the lineup Opening Night with the southpaw Duffy on the hill.

We know Francona loves relief pitchers, and he would normally carry 13 hurlers, so with the 30 man roster to start, you have to figure he will carry 14, and perhaps 15.

Relievers like James Hoyt, Phil Maton, Hunter Wood should be the leading candidates, and Adam Plutko figures to be on the roster as a long reliever. The possible 10th bullpen spot could be lefties Scott Moss or Kyle Nelson or righty Dominic Leone.

And that brings us to 29 players.

Does Francona keep all three extra infielders, or does he go with Jake Bauers, another left-handed bat, who can also spell Carlos Santana at first base?

Or he could go with Bradley Zimmer, who would provide speed and defense at the every least in the outfield. Or perhaps even a third catcher, like minor league veteran Beau Taylor.

Even though Johnson has done well, it’s doubtful he starts the season on the active roster, and the same goes for slugging 1B/DH Bobby Bradley.

We do wonder how much weight will be put on the three games against the Pirates, which begin Saturday night at PNC Park? We know the starters will begin the game, but will likely be pulled early. The players on the bubble will get a shot against pitchers or hitters who aren’t their teammates.

Although some will criticize Francona for not going with young guys, we don’t blame him. With the 60 game schedule, you have to come out of the gate running, and you have more of an idea what you will get out of veterans.

We will find out soon how much of an impression the “summer camp stars” have had on the front office.

Zimmer’s First Impression Still Resonates For Some.

Sometimes, a person makes such a strong first impression that is resonates for a long time, even after there is a whole bunch of evidence to the contrary.

There are actors who make a great screen debut, and then never make a movie as good again. Yet, they are still famous, and still keep getting cast in films. You can insert a name here.

For a lot of Cleveland baseball fans, that’s how they view Indians’ outfielder Bradley Zimmer. But at 27 years old, he’s at a career crossroad, and this shortened season isn’t likely to provide a lot of help for him.

Zimmer came up in May 2017 when with the defending AL champs struggling a bit at 20-17. Terry Francona was starting to use Lonnie Chisenhall is centerfield, while rightfield was a combination of Abraham Almonte and David Robertson.

And playing Chisenhall in CF was definitely a compromise to the defense.

Zimmer started off very well after being called up on May 16th. Heading into the all star break, the rookie left-handed hitter was batting .285 with 5 HR, 25 RBI and had a 790 OPS.

He did strikeout 43 times in 165 plate appearances, a not great, but manageable 26% rate.

Since that time, Zimmer has batted .199 with 5 HR and 23 RBI in 267 at bats, including stints in 2018 (34 games) and 2019 (9 games), mostly due to injuries.

And in those 295 plate appearances, he fanned 107 times, a 36% rate. For a comparison, last year’s major league leader in striking out, Eugenio Suarez of Cincinnati, struck out 189 times in 662 plate appearances, a rate of 28.5%.

Oh, by the way, Suarez also hit 49 HR and knocked in 103 runs with a .271 batting average. The point is a player can strikeout a lot if he is productive when he makes contact.

Zimmer’s walk rate, while never good, has also dropped to 6.1% in ’18.

Again, a big part of Zimmer’s issue has been injuries. He suffered rib and chest injuries crashing into the wall at Yankee Stadium in 2018, and then hurt his shoulder swinging a bat just a week after being sent to AAA during that season.

The latter injury involved surgery and a lengthy rehab process, so much that the former first round pick played in only 15 minor league games in 2019, getting just 50 at bats.

He was called up in September, and went 1 for 13, striking out seven times.

This shortened season isn’t doing to help someone who needs to get in the batter’s box and face live pitching. It is difficult to see him getting a big opportunity with the major league club, as in the reserve OF category, he is clearly behind Delino DeShields, Greg Allen, and probably Daniel Johnson, although his defensive ability and speed could be a help.

Especially his speed. Zimmer can fly, which makes his lack of contact at the plate more frustrating. We understand this is an era of launch angle and hitting the ball through defensive shifts, but Zimmer would appear to us to be a guy who should be hitting the ball on the ground and running fast.

To us, that would make him a more productive player. Swinging from the left side, any ball he would hit to the left side of the infield and the defender had to move has a good chance of being a base hit.

We understand that’s old school, but it’s also better than batting .199.

It has been reported that Zimmer made some changes to his approach last year, and if he did, it’s another reason he is hurt by the lack of a minor league season in 2020. He needs reps.

There is no question the injuries have hurt his career, but you have to wonder how long the Indians’ front office will hang with the potential of Bradley Zimmer before moving in another direction.

At the very least, Zimmer shouldn’t pass up an opportunity to play winter ball if there is a season later in the year.

All In All, Tito Is Definitely An Asset For Tribe.

There was a recent debate on social media about the Indians’ success since 2013 (three American League Central Division titles, four post-season berths in total) and what factors are the biggest reason for it.

We know there are critics out there, but there should be no denying the front office structure the Tribe has is top notch, and Chris Antonetti has done an outstanding job running the baseball operations.

Have they been perfect? Of course not, no one is.

On the other hand, the Cleveland organization has not had to go through a period where they had to bottom out, lose 100 games, and trade their best players for prospects to speed up that process, like the Cubs, Astros, and currently, the Tigers, Orioles, and Pirates.

Another factor for this success is Terry Francona.

Yes, Francona’s kind of an old school manager. Does he bunt too much? Yes. Does he cling to veterans at times? He does have that tendency.

And if you have performed for him in the past, he has a fierce loyalty to you.

He’s still one of the best managers in the game, and likely will be inducted in Cooperstown some day because of his managing, and he will likely deflect praise for that honor, because that’s what Tito does.

Francona ranks 18th all time in career wins by a manager, and only Dusty Baker has won more among active managers. And of the 17 skippers with more wins than Francona, 12 of them are enshrined in the Hall of Fame, and our guess is Bruce Bochy will make that number 13 sooner or later.

In a normal season, he had a real good chance of passing Lou Boudreau as the Indians’ all time winningest manager too. With 91 more victories, he accomplishes that.

His winning percentage is behind only Hall of Famer Al Lopez and Oscar Vitt among Tribe skippers.

And while many may take umbrage with his in-game strategy at times (and we confess, it drives us nuts sometimes too), he sets a tone in the clubhouse for what is expected from the players.

In this unique 60 game season, we believe one edge the Indians have is the consistency Tito shows to his players. His mindset right from the get go has been there are only 60 games, and the Indians will look at it as when the first game is played on July 24th, as if they are tied for first place and heading into the homestretch.

Many teams have gone to hiring younger men to relate to today’s players, like Rocco Baldelli in Minnesota, Aaron Boone in New York, and Tito’s old foil in Cleveland, Kevin Cash in Tampa. But even though he’s 61 years old, Francona still relates to Frankie Lindor and Jose Ramirez.

Lindor’s prank on the skipper early this week exemplifies the relationship between the star shortstop and the manager.

Yes, Francona does get irritated with certain players, most notably Trevor Bauer a year ago, but those players also know their boss has their backs. We’ve heard people complain that he should get on players for making mistakes or for not hustling.

He does, but he does it privately, not in the media. That earn respect, and the players return it to him by playing hard. You don’t see players dog it that often in Cleveland.

We aren’t saying the Indians aren’t the only Major League team who will come into the season with the “no excuses” mantra, but we will bet there will be teams who won’t treat it as seriously as others because it’s not a “real season”.

Yesterday, he said he wants his players to be ready to “be prepared to kick somebody’s ass”.

Francona doesn’t allow for excuses, for himself and his players. He understands there won’t be a feeling out process in 2020. However, that doesn’t mean he will have the same level of patience as the typical fan.

All in all, fans of the Indians should feel grateful that Terry Francona is guiding this team. Long time supporters of the club should remember a list of people who weren’t even close to him.

Shortened Draft, Less Minor League Teams Plays Into Helping Big Markets

The Major League Amateur Draft started in 1965. Coincidentally, the New York Yankees’ dominance of the American League ended the same year.

We say coincidentally because the Bronx Bombers of that era were showing some age. Stars like Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford were showing some age, as was former MVP Elston Howard. Yogi Berra recently retired and managed the team in ’64.

From 1936-1964, New York won 22 AL pennants, and the only time they went consecutive seasons without a berth in the World Series was during World War II (1944-46).

When baseball had its only era without any free agency of any sort, from 1965 to the McNally/Messersmith decision at the end of 1975, the Yankees won no pennants. Their best finish was a pair of 2nd place finishes in 1970 and 1974.

To be fair, not being able to outspend everyone was not the only reason for the Yanks lack of titles, but it is interesting they weren’t successful. The Yanks didn’t make the post-season from 1982-1995 and they could spend freely in those years.

But the reason we bring this up is baseball’s willingness to eliminate farm teams and shorten the amateur draft.

Developing players is the equalizer for smaller market teams that cannot afford to pay big bucks for star players. The Indians have stayed competitive over the past seven years because of their success in developing players such as Jose Ramirez, Roberto Perez, and a cadre of pitchers, particularly starters like Shane Bieber, Mike Clevinger, and others.

We didn’t count Frankie Lindor here because he was a first round pick, but none of the others we mentioned were.

If we were a mid market franchise, we would invest heavily in the farm system, bringing in as many players as we could. The more you work with, the better chance one of them becomes a big leaguer.

Remember how the St. Louis Cardinals became a power in the 1930’s. Branch Rickey’s extensive farm system produced players that kept the franchise contending during the 30’s and 40’s.

We heard former Marlins’ executive David Samson say he had a problem with investing money in the player development system knowing only a few could make an impact at the big league level.

That’s horrible thinking in our opinion. We look at it differently.

What value would you put on Ramirez’ production with the Tribe? He’s had two top three MVP finishes as an international free agent. Those two seasons alone would at worst be valued at $60 million on the open market.

Cleveland paid next to nothing.

We also feel the shortened draft plays into the hands of the teams with a more national fan base.

According to Baseball America’s Top 500 Prospects coming into this year’s draft, of the players not drafted, the teams signing the most players in this ranking were the Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, as well as the Padres and Royals.

Overall, the Red Sox and Reds signed the most players regarding of ranking.

The Royals got a lot of good press in saying they would pay their minor leaguers for the remainder of the season. For the record, the Indians signed one, C Joe Donovan.

There was a cap on the bonus amount for these players this year, but what happens when there isn’t? Do you think the big market teams aren’t going the volume route and will sign as many of these free agents as they can?

Besides the talent acquisition aspect, eliminating minor league teams hurts the sport at the grass roots level. Why would you want to expose less people to your sport? Isn’t that the antithesis to growing the game of baseball?

What’s one positive thing about these two moves from the commissioner’s office? Frankly, we can’t think of one. Seems like the people who run the game wanted to do something for the sake of doing something, and only thought about one thing–saving money.

Here’s hoping logic prevails, but based on the last couple of months, we doubt that’s possible.

Tribe Probably Looking For A New Closer…For 2021

It has been a long time since Terry Francona has needed to groom a closer, but other than winning baseball games, that might be his most important secondary chore in the 2020 season.

When Francona took over as Tribe skipper in 2013, Chris Perez was the closer, coming off a 39 save season in 2012, and although he had some injury issues during the campaign, he saved 25 for Cleveland in ’13.

When Perez was out, Francona used Vinnie Pestano and Bryan Shaw to close, but he was using a young 24-year-old right-hander drafted just two years prior as a set up man.

That pitcher was Cody Allen, and he took over the closer role the following season and saved a club record 156 games for the Tribe over the next five years, including seven in post-season play in 2016 and 2017.

With Allen on the roster and pitching effectively, Tito didn’t have to worry about who was pitching the ninth inning, he simply handed the ball to Allen, and the reliever was always ready to get four outs if need be.

Allen was such a good fit and a team player, that when the Indians traded for Andrew Miller in ’16, Francona used the southpaw as a “super reliever” bringing him in whenever the fire was the hottest.

He could do that because of the confidence he had in Allen.

In 2018, when both Allen and Miller started to leak some oil, perhaps because the extra work in the ’16 run to the World Series, president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff traded for San Diego closer Brad Hand, who saved eight games that season, and 34 a year ago.

Hand is signed through this season, but has a club option for $10 million for the 2021 season, and even without the uncertainty of baseball finances next year due to the coronavirus, we would doubt Cleveland wants to pay a closer that kind of cash.

At the initial spring training, people were looking forward to seeing the combination of youngsters Emmanuel Clase, 21, who came over in the Corey Kluber trade, and rookie James Karinchak, 23, who debuted last September, setting up the veteran Hand.

A righty, Clase has a 100 MPH cutter that Frankie Lindor said was the nastiest pitch he’s ever seen, and appeared in 21 games for Texas, going 2-3 with one save and a 2.31 ERA in 23.1 innings with 21 strikeouts.

Karinchak is famous, at least here, for his gaudy strikeout rates coming through the Indians’ farm system.

However, Clase has been suspended for the ’20 season due to PED usage, so the manager will not get to see him under fire this season.

So, it would seem that if Karinchak can throw strikes, which has been an issue in his minor league career, he could give Francona enough confidence to use him as the closer in 2021, and in turn, allow the front office to either pick up Hand’s option and trade him or not pick up the option at all.

On the other hand, as former Tribe GM John Hart used to say, closers fall out of trees, so as the 2020 season plays out, it may be someone else who earns the skipper’s confidence.

Perhaps a veteran like James Hoyt or Phil Maton, or maybe injury plagued prospect Triston McKenzie gets used as a bullpen arm. Or it could be someone like Cam Hill or Kyle Nelson.

Remember, it’s not just the arm that makes a solid closer, it’s dealing with the pressure of pitching with the game on the line. The closer has to be someone who can shake off a bad performance and go out and do the job the next night. Kind of an “everyday” pitcher.

We know the Indians want to win ballgames this season, but finding a successor to Hand might be the most important secondary thing to come out of the 2020 season.

Questions For Tribe Heading Into Training Camp.

Next week, the Cleveland Indians as well as other Major League Baseball teams will gather for training for 2020 abbreviated season. We can’t call it “spring” training now, because, well, it’s no longer spring.

The Tribe will carry 60 players throughout the season, but only 30 will be active on the new Opening Day, and eventually, that number will be reduced to 26.

However, much like any other season, there are questions going into camp and Terry Francona and his coaching staff can hopefully find some answers. And they will have to do so via a bunch of intrasquad games.

Can Franmil Reyes take a regular turn in the OF? If he can, then it opens up at bats for newcomer Domingo Santana, adding another power bat (and strikeouts) to the batting order.

If he cannot, Santana may have a problem making the team. And it would also mean the brass would have to find another outfielder who can swing the bat. The current pool doesn’t have anyone proven, it’s made up of Jake Bauers, rookie Daniel Johnson, Bradley Zimmer, and Greg Allen.

Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff made the moves this winter based on Reyes being able to play outfield acceptably. So, it’s a pretty big deal.

The development of Oscar Mercado. No doubt, Mercado had a solid rookie season a year ago, hitting .269 with 15 homers, 15 steals, and a 761 OPS.

However, there is a term called the sophomore slump for a reason.

The statistic that worries us is the strikeout to walk ratio, and Mercado accepted just 28 free passes vs. 84 whiffs. His on base percentage was just .318.

He started out very good in May and June, hitting over .300 in both months, but his on base average declined from May until it went up a bit in September, and you know what they say about April and September stats.

If Mercado doesn’t perform like he did a year ago, that leaves Delino DeShields, not a good offensive player, and again players like Allen and Zimmer competing for time.

Handling the Starting Pitching. There has been speculation on how teams will handle starters, who won’t be stretched out enough when the season begins.

Some think skippers will use tandem starters, such as Shane Bieber will go 3-4 innings, and then say, Adam Plutko will go three more to get the game to the actual bullpen.

We think Francona and pitching coach Carl Willis could do that while the roster is at 30 players, but we also believe they know what the strength of the team is, and they will try to get Bieber, Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac stretched out as quickly as possible.

So, you might see it the first five games, but not much beyond that.

Players Not On The Big League Roster. We’ve already mentioned some of these players, like Allen, Zimmer, Johnson, etc. and it will be important to keep them ready should injuries occur.

The Indians are reported to be carrying several top prospects, including last year’s first round pick Daniel Espino, and 19-year-old George Valera, as well as Nolan Jones and Tyler Freeman on the 60 player pool.

Their development is super important to the organization going forward, beyond the 2020 season.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out, because certainly Jones was thought to be ready for the majors as early as 2021, and maybe late this season.

There have been rumors of an expanded Arizona Fall League this year, so more prospects can get some playing time against players from other organizations.

That would be ideal if it can be done with the virus perhaps still looming.

No doubt, this training camp will be different, and it will also be interesting to see how it is covered and when the intrasquad games will commence.

The good news is…baseball is back!

A Look At The Tribe At 60 Games Under Tito

It is looking more and more like the 2020 Major League Baseball season will be limited to 60 games, so it will be a sprint rather than a marathon, at least this year.

Although we believe five teams in each league is a good number for the sport to make the post-season, especially after playing 162 regular season games, we agree that this season, there is no problem with having eight teams in both the American and National Leagues making the playoffs.

With this 60 game plan, we decided to take a look at how the Tribe has done in the first 60 contests in the Terry Francona era.

2019: The Indians 5-2 victory over Minnesota raised their record to 30-30, but they trailed the Twins by 10.5 games, as the northerners were setting a blistering pace at 40-19.

Shane Bieber won his 5th game and Brad Hand saved his 17th, as Francona leaned on him early in the season as the offense struggled.

Remember the Tribe played the first month of the season without Francisco Lindor, and Jose Ramirez was hitting just .202 with a 610 OPS. Lindor did have 10 HR and 23 RBI despite missing the time, and Carlos Santana had a 907 OPS at this point.

Leonys Martin was getting the bulk of the playing time in centerfield, and was batting .214 with 646 OPS.

2018: Cleveland’s 3-1 win over Milwaukee gave them a 32-28 mark and they led the AL Central by 4.5 over the Tigers and 5 over Minnesota.

Carlos Carrasco won his 7th (7-4) with Cody Allen picking up his 11th save.

The triumvirate of Ramirez, who was slugging at a .632 clip with 43 ribbies and a 1.028 OPS, Michael Brantley (.325, 916 OPS), and Lindor (917 OPS) were pacing the offense, but Jason Kipnis was hitting just .205 (591 OPS) and Lonnie Chisenhall was struggling as well at a 571 OPS.

Rajai Davis was the centerfielder vs. southpaws, and not really hitting at .232. He was being platooned with Greg Allen, but the lack of production led to the trade for Martin, who fell ill shortly after arriving in Cleveland.

2017: A 4-2 win over the White Sox gave the Tribe a 31-29 record, good for second place, a game and a half behind the surprising Twins.

Carrasco raised his record to 6-3, with the bullpen trio of Andrew Miller, Bryan Shaw, and Allen getting the last 11 outs.

Daniel Robertson started in RF that night, while Bradley Zimmer and Austin Jackson were platooning in center.

Santana was struggling at .218 (712 OPS), but Lindor, Ramirez, and Edwin Encarnacion all had OPS over 800 after 60 games.

2016: The future AL Champs won 6-2 over the Angels, making them 34-26 and they had a 3.5 game lead on Chicago, and four over Detroit and Kansas City.

Corey Kluber’s complete game gave him a 6-6 record for the season.

Ramirez played LF that night, as his 811 OPS made Tito look for ways to get him in the lineup. Jose Uribe (593 OPS) played the hot corner.

And in a portent of things to come, the starting rightfielder that night? Michael Martinez.

2015: The Indians dropped to 28-32 with a 4-0 loss to Detroit, and sat in last place in the Central, seven games behind Kansas City.

Danny Salazar took the loss dropping his record to 6-2.

Kipnis was having a very good year, hitting .332 (914 OPS), and the lineup featured Brantley in CF, Mike Aviles at SS, Brandon Moss in RF, Ryan Raburn in LF, and Gio Urshela at third.

Santana was hitting just .221 and the DH that night was Nick Swisher, batting .198 with an OPS under 600.

2014: Cleveland was at the break even mark, at 30-30 after a 7-4 extra inning win over Boston. Kluber was the starter, but Carrasco got the win with two frames of scoreless relief, striking out four.

Asdrubal Cabrera was the SS and won the game with a homer off former Indian, Eduard Mujica.

Brantley was hitting .308, and Chisenhall was sizzling at .361, playing first base in the game, while Michael Bourn was the leadoff hitter, batting .295.

David Murphy was in RF and Aviles was at third.

2013: Francona’s first Indians team was in the midst of an 8 game losing streak, dropping a 7-5 decision to the Tigers, dropping 3.5 behind Detroit.

Justin Verlander defeated Ubaldo Jimenez, who went just three innings allowing five runs. Of course, Jimenez was arguably the best pitcher in the game down the stretch for the Tribe, who rode a red hot September (21-6) to a wild card spot.

It is interesting that Rich Hill pitched in relief during that game, and Mark Reynolds played third base for Cleveland.

This research reminds us that the Indians are very much a second half team under Francona, but they will not have the luxury if indeed, there is a 60 game slate in 2020.

However, if there are extra post-season teams this year, the Indians should be able to qualify even if it takes them awhile to find their way.

Tribe Killing It In Simulated Seasons

With baseball still on the shelf, the only way you can get the feeling of following a team day by day is by checking out the various simulations of the 2020 season out there.

In April, we checked out a couple such games, the Out Of The Park simulation being conducted on BaseballReference.com and the other being played out on StratOMatic.com.

According to both of these sites, baseball fans in northeast Ohio and missing one helluva season.

BaseballReference.com: The Tribe leads the AL Central with a 48-27 record and holds a seven game bulge on the second place Minnesota Twins. That mark is the best in the American League, and third best in baseball, behind the Dodgers and Cardinals.

Offensively, the Indians are being paced by Carlos Santana (.315, 14 HR, 54 RBI, 932 OPS), Francisco Lindor (.288, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 887 OPS), and Jose Ramirez (.274, 16 HR, 46 RBI, 867 OPS).

Franmil Reyes has belted 20 long balls, and Tyler Naquin returned to the active roster in May and is hitting .323. Jordan Luplow is getting steady playing time and has 10 homers to go along with a .283 batting average.

Newcomers Cesar Hernandez (.301, 6 HR, 34 RBI, .370 OBP) and Domingo Santana (.256, 10 HR) and fit in quite well to the lineup.

As we noted in April, this game has been playing Greg Allen at the everyday CF, and he’s done well, batting .280 with a .347 on base percentage.

Pitching wise, Shane Bieber has fit the profile as a staff ace with an 11-4 mark and a 2.98 ERA and 116 strikeouts in 114 innings. Aaron Civale is 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA, and though Carlos Carrasco (4-4, 4.30) and Mike Clevinger (3-3, 5.37) have struggled a bit, rookie lefty Scott Moss has picked up the slack, going 7-1 with a 4.48 ERA.

Brad Hand has 17 saves, and James Karinchak has a 1.98 ERA in 13 innings, but has fanned 24 hitters in that span.

The game had the Tribe picking up veteran relievers John Axford, Jim Johnson, and Daniel Stumpf as well.

One bone to pick–they had Cleveland dealing Tyler Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, and Juan Carlos Mejia to Texas for catcher Robinson Chirinos, a deal the Indians’ front office would never make.

StratOMatic.com: This simulation also has the Tribe sitting with a 48-27 record and an 8 game lead over the Twins in the Central. Cleveland has the second best mark in the AL (behind Houston) and third in MLB overall (Dodgers).

Reyes is the offensive machine for the Indians, batting .334 with 21 home runs and 54 RBIs, Lindor leads the team in ribbies with 55, along with 19 bombs and a .271 batting average.

Ramirez checks in at .259 with 14 homers and 45 runs knocked in.

They also have Luplow getting more playing time, and he’s responded with 7 HR, 26 RBI, and a .290 batting average.

Hernandez has had a fine season to date here as well, batting .295 with 8 dingers. And Carlos Santana is batting .300 and is third in the AL in walks with 50. His power is down so far with just 6 homers.

They have used Delino DeShields as the primary CF, hitting .258 although Bradley Zimmer has just been recalled. Oscar Mercado is on the team, but batting just .232.

Clevinger has been the best pitcher, going 5-1 with a 2.32 ERA and 74 punchouts in 73 innings, while Bieber has been solid, with an 8-5 mark, 3.59 ERA and 114 whiffs in 100 frames.

Zach Plesac is 7-4 with a 3.57 ERA.

Brad Hand has struggled. He has 21 saves, but a 5.73 ERA, but the relievers have been buoyed by strong performances from Phil Maton (1.44 ERA), James Hoyt (1.26 ERA in just 14 innings).

Karinchak has a 3.20 ERA in 25.1 innings with 32 strikeouts, and he has been joined by rookies Cam Hill and Kyle Nelson.

If these games are even close to realism, we are missing a great season to date by the Indians. Guess that should make everyone even more sad about what is going on in The National Pastime.

Bradley and Chang: Forgotten Indian Prospects?

When talking about the young players on the roster of the Cleveland Indians, the conversation usually is about guys like Oscar Mercado, presumed to be the starting centerfielder, or slugger Franmil Reyes, who many figured could have hit 40 home runs in a full season.

Or people talk about the young arms the Tribe has on the cusp of being quality big league starters, namely Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac, and perhaps Triston McKenzie, who missed all of last year with injuries.

Maybe people will bring up the flame throwers in the bullpen, James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, and depending how “in the know” they are, Cam Hill and Kyle Nelson.

However, two players who signed and were developed by the organization seem to be forgotten. Both are 24 years old right now, but it doesn’t feel like the Indians have plans for them any more.

We are talking about Yu Chang and Bobby Bradley.

A right-handed hitter shortstop, Chang debuted in the organization in 2014 in the Arizona Rookie League, and made his mark hitting .346 with 6 HR and a 986 OPS at age 18.

He played in Lake County as a 19 year old and struggled at the plate batting .232 with 9 dingers, and struggled with strike zone judgment, fanning 103 times in 440 plate appearances with just 27 walks.

He rebounded a bit at Lynchburg in 2016 (.259, 13 HR, 70 RBI, 795 OPS, increased walk rate) and had a good stint in the Arizona Fall League, batting .304.

However, in the AFL, he fanned 21 times and walked just 3 times.

Moving to AA in ’17, Chang did belt 24 homers, but hit just .220 and struck out 134 times in 504 plate appearances. In his first year at AAA in 2018, he batted .256 and followed that hitting .253, with a combined total of 22 homers.

In our eyes, you need to have the ability to get on base and/or drive the ball to be a big league hitter. Since his stint in rookie ball, Chang’s high in on base percentage is .332 and his minor league slugging percentage is just .436.

In 84 big league at bats, he hit .186 with one homer and whiffed 22 times in 84 PA.

The lack of ability to make contact or have good strike zone judgment is the reason the Tribe signed Cesar Hernandez as a free agent and traded for Christian Arroyo late last season.

And it’s going to be tough for infielder to show anything without a true minor league season in 2020.

As for Bradley, he might be able to get a spot on a 30 man daily roster, but it appears he’s not in their long range plans as an everyday player.

The left-handed hitter was a third round pick in ’14 and dominated the Arizona Rookie League, hitting .361 with 8 HR and 50 RBI (1.078 OPS). The following year, he started at Lake County, where he belted 27 long balls, hit .269, but fanned 148 times in 465 plate appearances.

He moved to high A Lynchburg for eight hitless at bats, and stayed there in 2016, hitting 29 homers, but his batting average dipped to .239, and although he drew 75 walks, which is good, he whiffed 175 times.

He had a 890 OPS at Lake County, and dropped to 810 at Lynchburg.

That figure fell further at Akron in 2017 to 796, as he hit .251 with 23 dingers. The strikeouts dropped to 122, which is good, but so did the walks (55).

He started the next season at Akron, hitting .214 with 24 bombs. His slugging percentage went up slightly, but his on base percentage dropped. He was promoted to Columbus later that season, hitting .254 with three homers in 32 games.

He seemed to change his approach last year, and didn’t care as much about cutting down on the strikeouts, accumulating 153 at AAA, but hit 33 homers, and had a 912 OPS.

Bradley had a cup of coffee with the big club, hitting one homer in 49 PA’s, but batted just .178 and struck out 20 times.

He’s only 24, and sometimes it takes awhile for these power hitters to find their niche in the big leagues, but trading for Reyes during the ’19 season and for Jake Bauers before last season, shows us, the contact problem concerns the Indians’ brass.

Again, the lack of a minor league season retards the development of both Chang and Bradley, as the duo need regular at bats to develop.

However, it does seem like the front office lost some of their enthusiasm for these two prospects. On the other hand, sometimes players get one shot, and they have to take advantage of that chance.

Trading Good Young Players? For Tribe, We’ve Seen How It Works

Since we started following the Cleveland Indians, and we go back to the mid-sixties, one thing has been a constant, trading good young players for a bushel of prospects.

That almost never works out.

So, when people ask us why we are adamant that the Indians are doing the wrong thing by trading Francisco Lindor, we have a boatload of history and memories to support our thinking.

One of the best players on the Tribe’s early 1970’s teams was third baseman Graig Nettles. The left-handed hitter played three seasons in Cleveland, totaling 71 home runs, 218 RBI, and a 750 OPS.

In 1972, one of the Indians’ top prospects (in those days, perhaps their only prospect) was Buddy Bell, who also handled the hot corner. Bell played the outfield in ’72, but the Indians were anxious to make room for him at third, so they dealt Nettles to the Yankees, where he blasted 250 homers and played on two World Championship teams.

Who did Cleveland receive? They got John Ellis, Jerry Kenney, Rusty Torres, and a prospect OF in Charlie Spikes.

Nettles accumulated 44.4 WAR in his career with the Bronx Bombers. The best player the Tribe received was Ellis, who had a 3.2 WAR in his tenure with Cleveland.

Two years later, the Indians had a first baseman who won the Rookie of the Year Award in ’71, and again they dealt with New York, sending Chris Chambliss there along with Dick Tidrow and Cecil Upshaw for four pitchers: Fritz Peterson, Steve Kline, Fred Beene, and Tom Buskey.

Chambliss accumulated 4.0 WAR with the Tribe, but 15.4 with the Yanks over seven years, playing on two World Series champions.

Peterson went 23-25 for Cleveland, Kline 3-8, while Beene went 5-4 with an ERA over 5.00 in two seasons. Buskey was the least accomplished pitcher coming to the Indians (just 12 big league games), but was the best of the quartet going 12-13 with 25 saves in four seasons.

Dennis Eckersley was just 23 years old and coming off 40 wins in his first three seasons with Cleveland when he was dealt to Boston for prospect 3B Ted Cox, catcher Bo Diaz, and two starting pitchers, veteran Rick Wise and Mike Paxton before the ’78 season.

Eck spent eight years in Boston, winning 88 games, and of course, later in his career became the most dominant reliever in the game, and was elected to the Hall of Fame.

Cox was brought in despite the presence of Bell (who was dealt the next year for another third baseman in Toby Harrah), and Wise had one good year with the Tribe and one bad one before leaving in free agency. Paxton had a solid year before developing arm problems and was out of the game by 1980.

Diaz, who was kind of a throw-in, wound up being the best player, making the All Star team in ’81 with Cleveland, and was a regular for Philadelphia’s World Series team in 1983 and played until 1989.

In 1985, Cleveland traded another pitcher on the way to Cooperstown, moving Bert Blyleven to Minnesota for SS Jay Bell (who they didn’t really give a shot to) and three pitchers, Rich Yett, Curt Wardle, and Jim Weaver.

That trio won 29 games for Cleveland, while Blyleven won 50 over the next three and a half years, including one that ended in a World Series title for the Twins.

After the 1988 season, Cleveland dealt Julio Franco, who batted .297 with a 752 OPS in his six years as an Indian to Texas and not for prospects, but instead three mediocre big league players in Pete O’Brien, Jerry Browne, and Oddibe McDowell.

Franco hit .307 over the next five seasons with Texas, winning a batting title, and putting up an 822 OPS. Only Browne played more than one season with the Tribe, two as a regular and the other as a reserve.

That isn’t to say all of these deals didn’t work.

In 1983, Cleveland moved Len Barker to Atlanta, and received Brett Butler and Brook Jacoby, both of whom were long time regulars with the Indians, while Barker was finished after the 1987 season.

And dealing Joe Carter after the ’89 season netted Cleveland two major building blocks of the great 90’s teams in Sandy Alomar Jr. and Carlos Baerga.

We also all remember the Bartolo Colon deal in 2002, which might be the last deal of that kind because of the return the Indians received.

The point is trading very good (or excellent) young players is extremely risky. The best bet is to keep them and watch them keep improving into possible Hall of Fame players.