Maybe Being Slightly Better At Some Spots Will Work For Guards

We have been critical of the inactivity this winter by the Cleveland Guardians. The Guards fell from a division winner in 2022 to last year’s 76-86 record, and really haven’t made any moves to get better.

However, we remembered that when the team gets to the trade deadline, we always remind people that it’s not always a blockbuster move that is needed, sometimes an incremental move works just fine.

So, in that spirit we have cut the front office a bit of slack. We still think going after one or two veterans to have around as a backup plan would have been a smarter play, and of course, we will remind folks of that if what they are doing doesn’t work out.

And that’s not a second guess.

New manager Steven Vogt has talked a few times about newcomer Estevan Florial taking over in centerfield and we have pointed out Florial’s struggles in making contact and his fall from ranking as a top 100 prospect.

Then we remembered he would be replacing Myles Straw at the spot. Last year, Straw was the third worst hitter in the American League with his 597 OPS. The only players who were worse were Javier Baez and Tim Anderson.

If Florial can have a 650 OPS this season (league average is 728), the Guardians’ offense will be better than last year. Heck, overall, Cleveland centerfielders had a 626 OPS, the worst on the team.

The second worst spot was rightfield, where the players manning the spot combined for a 629 OPS. The favorites to play there in 2024 are Will Brennan and Ramon Laureano in a platoon role.

Brennan had a 695 OPS vs. right-handed pitching in ’23, while Laureano had a 794 OPS against southpaws. And remember, the latter didn’t join the team until August last season.

If they repeat those numbers, the offensive production out of that position will be improved.

And the third worst spot should be better because it is the catching position and Bo Naylor should get the bulk of the playing time there. Barring the dreaded sophomore slump, that is.

Naylor put up an 809 OPS, belting 11 home runs in the 67 games he played last season. And he’s patient at the plate, drawing 30 walks. That’s nothing new, he had a .348 on base percentage in his minor league career.

We have no question that he can boost the production from that position, after all, the Guards unbelievably gave 149 at bats to Cam Gallagher last season, who put up a woeful 322 OPS.

Baseballprospectus.com listed Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez as the most likely players to have improved numbers at the plate this season. And we agree they will probably be better in 2024.

With the Central Division being what it is, perhaps those things, coupled with the usual solid pitching, can vault the Guardians back to the top of the division standings.

We still would rather have invested some money (we know, we know) into getting a decent hitter or two to improve the roster instead of trying to project how a 20-year-old who has never played higher than AA can make an impact. The front office is back to their Dusty Springfield approach.

For younger people, she was a singer who had a big hit called “Wishin’ and Hopin'”.

Maybe we just have a case of Spring Training Fever. After all, exhibition play started yesterday.

Non Money Moves Made Or Not Made By Guardians

We have talked about this a lot since the calendar turned to 2024, but it has been a very, very quiet off-season for the Cleveland Guardians. Outside of a few transactions around the time a team had to offer arbitration to its players, it seems like the construction around Progressive Field has closed the front office too.

We aren’t going to get into the financial stuff here, we have been well informed on the whole broadcast revenue with Bally Sports and how the Guardians have claimed it prevented them for spending this winter.

However, there are things we would have liked the organization to do this off-season which would not have caused a financial burden. Here are some things we wish they’d have taken care of:

Ease The Middle Infield Glut. If you have five shortstops do you have one? Once the exhibition games start, new skipper Steven Vogt will have to decide who will get the majority of the playing time in the middle infield, particularly at short.

We say that because the Guards seem loathe to move Andres Gimenez, who played 400 games in the minor leagues at shortstop to that spot in the big leagues. So, the primary candidates are Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio, with Tyler Freeman and Jose Tena on the outside.

They gave Arias a full shot at the job a year ago after Amed Rosario was traded, and he had a 643 OPS in the second half, batting .227. Rocchio had an outstanding winter league season, and frankly, we have felt he was regarded as the heir apparent to the spot by the organization.

We would give Rocchio the spot to start and see if the winter league carries over. The back up plan for us would be moving Gimenez to SS and seeing if Freeman can hit like he did in the minors with regular at bats.

Catching Reserve. Last season, the Guardians employed Cam Gallagher as the backup catcher all year, first behind Mike Zunino and then Bo Naylor. He received 143 at bats and hit .125 (322 OPS).

We dare you to find anyone worse with a bat in their hand. Early in the off-season, they claimed Christian Bethancourt from Tampa. He hit .225 but banged 11 homers and had a 635 OPS. Not Babe Ruth production but better than what Gallagher provided.

But then they let Bethancourt go and re-signed veteran Austin Hedges for a second go round with the Guards. Hedges is an excellent defensive catcher, but he can’t hit.

In 199 games with Cleveland, he has a .169 batting average and 502 OPS. We get he is a great clubhouse presence, but he can’t hit.

Have we mentioned the Guardians need hitting?

Find A Taker For Straw. Vogt and Chris Antonetti have both talked about giving the Guardians’ young outfielders an opportunity this year, but that may prove difficult because Myles Straw is still on the roster.

The problem for the Guards is Straw still has two years on his deal, worth an estimated $13.8 million. A second problem is as we said before, the Guardians need offense and Straw has been one of baseball’s worst hitters over the last two seasons.

We get that no one wants to take that contract unless it is included in a bigger deal, as many proposed in possible trades involving Shane Bieber. But the Guardians usual move is to play Straw because they owe him the cash. That’s the real problem.

And based on the Guardians’ history, if he is on the roster, they will feel obligated to put him in the lineup.

What Is Plan B To Help Guardians Score Runs?

The first clue came at Guardians’ Fest when owner Paul Dolan said the reason for not signing any free agent outfielders is they wanted to give the young players in the farm system a chance.

Then in the past few days, manager Steven Vogt and president Chris Antonetti mentioned the same thing.

To us, this is a pretty risky plan especially if the organization has designs on making the playoffs. Remember, this shouldn’t be a “rebuild”, they won the division title just two years ago with the youngest roster in the sport.

It is universally known that the Guardians have a problem scoring runs, ranking 12th in the American League a year ago. We believe to have a solid major league lineup, a team needs to have six, maybe even seven solid bats in the batting order.

In our opinion, right now, the Guards have four: Jose Ramirez of course, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan, and Andres Gimenez. Bo Naylor showed promise a year ago, but he has less than 250 big league at bats, and can’t be counted as of yet.

And we are pressing the definition of “solid” with Kwan (710 OPS) and Gimenez (712 OPS), each would be the 6th or 7th best hitters on very good hitting teams.

The front office could have signed a veteran free agent to a one-year contract (there are no such things as bad one-year deals) to add a proven stick to the order. Players like J.D. Martinez (career 874 OPS) and Tommy Pham (786 OPS) are still on the market.

Cleveland acquired Estevan Florial from New York over the winter and he had a big year in AAA last season and was a former top 100 prospect. George Valera has also been on this list, but he’s never been in the big leagues and has battled injuries the last two seasons.

Otherwise, the candidates the team is depending aren’t on the list of the top prospects in the game, nor are they on the Guardians’ top 10 list, at least among the outfielders.

So, our question is this: What is Plan B if none of the young players the brass is talking about come through in 2024?

In 2022, Will Brennan slashed 371/479/850 in the minor leagues, at both the AA and AAA levels. Last year, in the big leagues, Brennan had a 655 OPS, with both the on base and pop he showed in the minors in ’22 having disappeared.

This isn’t to say Brennan is a bust, for right now, we simply will call it growing pains, but the fact remains he didn’t provide much offense for the Guardians last season.

In three seasons at AAA, Florial has slashed 358/490/848, similar numbers to Brennan. And although he has only 134 plate appearances in the big leagues, he has a 609 OPS, striking out 41 times.

Another hopeful is Johnathan Rodriguez, who in 47 games at Columbus last season was outstanding 376/560/936. With 476 plate appearances in AA, his numbers are 334/497/831. Solid, but not overwhelming.

Jhonkensy Noel, a minor league slugger, is also in the mix, but in a full season at Columbus last year put up these numbers: 303/420/723.

Kyle Manzardo is a Guardians’ top 10 prospect, and it seems like the organization wants him to start in AAA. Perhaps, it’s because he’s not already on the 40-man roster. In AAA last season, he had an 802 OPS.

And no, we don’t consider a player with a 676 OPS a year ago to be a solid bat. We are talking about Ramon Laureano, claimed on waivers from Oakland last season in August. His last season with an OPS over 750 was 2021.

Could things fall into place and Brennan bounces back, Bo Naylor continues to hit like he did in the second half last season, and Brayan Rocchio hits like he has in winter ball? Of course, and if that happens, the offensive woes could be solved.

We like having a backup plan, though. Of course, that costs money. Hence the problem for the front office.

Can Guardians Manage Their Glut At Certain Spots?

The Cleveland Guardians have had problems making decisions on players, particularly their prospects. For example, before the 2022 season, Cleveland had four shortstops listed in their top 10 prospects: Tyler Freeman (#2), Brayan Rocchio (#4), Gabriel Arias (#5), and Angel Martinez (#10).

Two years later, what do we know about these four young players? The one with the most at-bats is Arias, who has 362 in his career. Martinez is still considered a prospect, ranking #6 in the 2024 rankings, but now is considered a second baseman.

We understand the philosophy of drafting shortstops. They are generally the best athletes on the field, and therefore you can move them to other positions. For example, Mickey Mantle was signed as a shortstop. Current Guardian broadcaster Rick Manning was drafted #2 overall as one.

Both eventually became outfielders.

On the other hand, in today’s baseball, top prospects are like currency, that is to say, they can lose value over time. Freeman as we noted was the club’s #2 prospect just two years ago. We doubt he would bring back much in a trade right now.

He’s become stale. He’s not putting up gaudy numbers in the minors, he spent all of 2023 in Cleveland, getting just 168 plate appearances.

By the way, we have said many times over the past couple of years is we believe ultimately, Rocchio will wind up being the everyday shortstop and his play this winter season (.377 batting average, 998 OPS) hopefully caught the eye of the decision makers in the front office.

Now, it looks like the same thing is happening in the outfield, where the team is collecting CF and RFs. New manager Steven Vogt has hinted the Guards would like to take a good luck at former Yankee prospect Estevan Florial, but where?

Myles Straw, who was arguably the worst offensive player in the game last season, is still on the roster, and they resigned Ramon Laureano, who had a 724 OPS with Cleveland after being claimed on waivers in August.

And they still have Will Brennan, as well as rookies Johnathan Rodriguez and seemingly perpetual prospect George Valera on the 40-man roster.

Also, their #5 prospect, Juan Brito is listed as a second baseman, but doesn’t profile well there defensively, and last season, we suggested a shift to the outfield.

Freeman has also been working in the outfield this winter, in an effort to get more at bats with the big club in 2024.

Remember the football adage if you have two quarterbacks, then you don’t really have one? The same is true for the Guardians. If you have four shortstops, do you really have one? If you have five CF/RF, do you have those positions covered?

Once again, it seems like the organization doesn’t want to make a mistake, so in their cautiousness, they also don’t make a decision. A sort of “paralysis by analysis” thing.

Frankly, any decision they make should be based on hitting first. That’s the area of need for the 2024 Guardians. Their offense bordered on woeful a year ago.

We say all the time, if you can’t hit, you can’t play. Over the past few years, there seems to be an overemphasis on the glove. We aren’t saying put a bunch of terrible defenders on the field, but you also don’t need a Gold Glove at every spot.

Hopefully, decisions will finally be made early this year, meaning spring training or early in the regular season. And even better, it would be nice if whatever is decided is the right move.

This Year, Spring Training Doesn’t Hold The Same Excitement

We have made no bones about the fact that baseball is our favorite sport. And usually, this time of year has us excited. Spring training is about to begin, and like many fans, we put together potential lineups in our head and think about what young prospects could make a difference for the Guardians.

We don’t have that same feeling this winter.

Part of it is the sports itself and how it is covered. When MLB Network first came out, we loved it. A station that talked nothing about what used to be the “national pastime.”

Much of the winter was spent showing old games, where we could show our children players like Sandy Koufax, Pete Rose, Joe Morgan, Roberto Clemente, and even Mark “The Bird” Fidrych.

Now, the network has turned into group think, where no one has diverse opinions and much of the talk is solely about sabremetric statistics, which we do pay attention to, but we are starting to see “analytics” as a justification to make a decision.

For example, the Guardians played Gabriel Arias at shortstop most of the last two months because he has an outstanding exit velocity, meaning he hits the ball hard. The problem for Arias though, is he rarely hits it.

None of the guys we grew up playing baseball with think Arias is a good player. None.

There is a place in the sport for these numbers, but it would be okay if someone talked about runs scored, RBI, and disagreed that a good player should make the Hall of Fame.

Besides, how many times can you watch Little Big League?

But it is the local situation that really has us not looking forward to the season with the same zeal.

The Cleveland Guardians won the AL Central Division in 2022, and at the all-star break last season, were still in the race. Then, at the trading deadline, they moved one of their starting pitchers, even though they had two starters injured, and moved one of their middle of the order bats.

When the division leading Twins failed to pull away in August, and Terry Francona announced he was going to retire at the end of the season, they did claim three pitchers to bolster the staff to make a belated run.

It failed.

The Guardians’ offense is the chief problem, ranking 12th in the American League in runs scored. It would seem to be the area where the club could improve and vault into the post-season in 2024. However, the organization did nothing.

Yes, we know, in fact, we all know about the broadcast deal with Bally Sports. We all know because the ownership through the media tells fans about it all the time. We have said this often, if the people who pay the bills put as much energy in trying to make the team better and/or get more fans to the park as they do making excuses why they can’t spend money, the Guardians would be better off.

The team couldn’t even make a big announcement that the equipment truck was leaving for Arizona yesterday, a glimmer of spring hope in northeast Ohio, until several media outlets reported it was happening.

We lived through the Vernon Stouffer years, the Nick Mileti years, the Gabe Paul years, etc., and through the naivety of youth, still believed the Indians could contend. Fifty years later, and nothing has changed.

It used to be because the old decrepit base park that the team couldn’t compete. Now we have Progressive Field, and outside of the first ten years it was built, the excuse is the same.

We understand the finances of the game is a problem, and smaller markets are at a disadvantage, but we are certain the family who owns the Guardians is doing quite well. A good businessman finds another way.

We still love baseball, but we feel let down by it. We are sure someone will read this and say “go root for another team!”, but we grew up with the Cleveland Indians, and we are born and bred here.

The owners are the stewards of the franchise. Yet they continue to let us down. Fifty years from now, will there be fans like the guys we grew up with?

Stuff We Would Like To See Guardians Do in 2024

It is pretty clear to us that the Cleveland Guardians aren’t going to make any impact moves before spring training starts in two and a half weeks.

They did make a small move over the weekend, bringing back Carlos Carrasco on a minor league contract, and of course, he has a chance to open the season with the big club. While we are happy to see Carrasco return, as he was a longtime fan favorite, but this is a classic move by the franchise. We aren’t trying to improve the roster, but we’ll do the ticket buyers a favor and bring back an old popular player.

Carrasco spent parts of 11 seasons with Cleveland, winning 88 games for the home team. He led the American League in wins in 2017, and of course (in the pantheon of Cleveland what ifs), missed the World Series run in 2016 with a broken hand after he went 11-8 with a 3.32 ERA.

Many Carrasco can give the Guardians a turn back the clock moment and be a solid fifth starter in 2024.

All that said, if the Guardians don’t make any moves before camp starts, here are some things we would like to see in the 2024 season.

Enhance The Running Game. Cleveland finished third in the AL in steals last season with 151, but we think they can and should run more, particularly with the famous lack of power. Andres Gimenez led the Guards with 30, and Jose Ramirez was next with 28.

While we really don’t want Ramirez to run more because he’s getting older, but why can’t Gimenez, Steven Kwan, and if he plays, Myles Straw run and steal more. Newcomer Estevan Florial stole 25 bases in AAA last year. We think they try not to run with Ramirez coming up, but early in games, why not?

If as a team, you aren’t going to get a lot of extra base hits, why not take extra bases in the steal game?

Find Out Once And For All. We don’t have a plan on this (we do, but what we think doesn’t matter), but the Guardians need to find at bats for Tyler Freeman to find out if he can be a big-league player.

Freeman’s minor league number show he can hit, .311 batting average, .382 on base percentage, 812 OPS. However, he has just 254 plate appearances in the big leagues since his initial call up on August 3, 2022. He had just two instances where he had four at bats in back-to-back games in 2023.

There have been reports he has worked in the outfield this winter, so perhaps he becomes a “super utility” player, getting a lot of at bats filling in at different positions. For a team looking for hitters, it is curious how they have treated Freeman.

Cool It on Defense. Without a doubt, defense in baseball is important. However, you also have to be able to contribute with a bat in your hands. In recent years for the Guardians, defense has been perhaps too much of a factor in getting playing time.

Straw was one of the worst offensive players in the game a year ago, and the Guardians gave up over 500 plate appearances. Cam Gallagher got almost 150 at bats last season despite hitting .126.

If you want to put elite defenders on the field, get a lead, and then put them in after the sixth inning, and in the meantime, put someone in the batter’s box who has a decent chance of contributing on offense.

It will be interesting to see how new skipper Steven Vogt handles issues like these or will it be organizational group think going forward.

Dolan’s Comments Seems Like Rebuilding Year For Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians celebrated their annual winter festival over the weekend, a time to look forward to the upcoming baseball season. It’s a great time for the fans, who get to see their favorite players again after three and a half months.

The team’s resident superstar Jose Ramirez was there. Fan favorite Josh Naylor and brother Bo made an appearance, and the Guards’ new skipper, Steven Vogt, interacted with ticket payers and media people alike.

It was a great time to talk baseball during the cold northeast Ohio winter, and of course, the weather cooperated by providing a snowstorm.

And then, someone put a microphone in front of team owner Paul Dolan. Dolan did say the team is always looking for ways to improve, but seemed to imply the improvement would come “internally and organically” with the young guys coming up from the farm system.

And thus, a wet blanket was put over the event.

Look, we get a team like the Guardians (at least in their own head) have to have a farm system that is producing in order to field a contending team. However, even if you are going to depend on rookies and/or second year players, if you fancy yourself as a contender, you add veterans who can contribute in case the inexperienced players aren’t quite ready.

We know the Guardians need outfield help. Since the end of the 2023 campaign, they resigned Ramon Laureano, who they acquired on waivers in August, and traded with the Yankees for Estevan Florial, who was a top 100 prospect. In 2019.

We reviewed the organization’s top ten prospect list from Baseball America and we see three outfielders–

Chase DeLauter is the top prospect, but he has only played a handful of games above the High A level, and could be ready late this season. Key word there is could.

George Valera has been on prospect lists since 2020, but has had injury issues the past two seasons and has never played more than 100 games in a minor league season. If he can stay healthy in 2024, perhaps he’s another player who can be in Cleveland by the end of this season.

The third OF is 19-year-old Jaison Chourio, who played mostly in the Arizona Rookie Leauge last year. He’s aways away.

So, it’s not like the Guardians have one of the game’s best prospects ready to step in the lineup on Opening Day. In fact, there has been talk that the readiest minor league player, Kyle Manzardo, might start the year in AAA.

Plenty of players who made these top prospect lists never pan out, and others who don’t make them wind up being real good major league players. Ramirez never appeared on the Top 100 prospect list and he has been one of the best players in the game over the last six years.

Yes, there is still time to sign a veteran outfielder to help the team’s hitting before spring training starts, and actually, there are still good candidates remaining on the market.

But to us, going entirely with your farm system to fill this void, and not having highly tiered prospects ready to go, reeks of a rebuilding team. The Guardians are not a team that is several years away from success, they won the Central in 2022.

Perhaps any warmth fans received at the event over the weekend was the hot air coming out of the team’s owner.

The public relations department of the Guardians don’t get paid enough to spin whatever comes out of the owners’ mouth.

Guardians Seem To Have Changed Philosophy On Hitting

About 10 years ago, the Cleveland Guardians developed a philosophy about hitting. The theory was it was easier to teach a good contact hitter to hit for power than it was to instruct a power hitter to make more contact.

The prime examples were Jose Ramirez, who hit a grand total of 13 home runs in the minor leagues (216 in the majors) and Francisco Lindor, who’s high in the minor leagues was 11 dingers, and by his second full year in the bigs, belted 33.

Kyle Manzardo, who came in the Aaron Civale deal, also fits this profile. He struck out in 18% of his plate appearances last season and hit 17 homers.

As everyone is aware by now, the Guardians were last in the major leagues in home runs in 2023, so what moves they have made have involved getting power, but they are getting players with high strikeout rates and low walk rates.

Why do we focus on this? Because generally, those players can be pitched to, meaning pitchers aren’t dumb and if they realize they can retire a hitter without throwing him a strike, then they probably won’t.

Not to pick on Amed Rosario, but how many times did we watch him strikeout without the pitcher throwing a ball in the strike zone? We realize the game has changed (not all changes are for the good) and hitters sell out to hit more home runs, but sometimes you can score without getting a hit. Can’t do that with a strikeout.

It’s not impossible for a hitter to succeed with that profile, but it isn’t the norm.

For example, Oscar Gonzalez struck out almost six times as much as he walked in the minor leagues. His first year in the bigs, he hit .296 with 11 homers, but he did fan 75 times with just 15 walks.

His next year? He hit .214 with two round-trippers and struck nine times more than he walked (46:5). It will be interesting to see how the Yankees will handle him.

This off-season, the Guardians elevated Johnathan Rodriguez to the 40 man roster. He has hit 55 home runs the past two minor league seasons, including 29 last season at the AA and AAA levels. He did strike out in 29% of his plate appearance last season in the minors. That’s the bad news.

The good news is his walk rate was the highest of his minor league career. Perhaps that’s a good sign.

The same is true with Estevan Florial, acquired from the Yankees the day after Christmas. Florial hit 28 dingers at AAA last season with a career high 66 walks. He did strikeout in 30% of his plate appearances in the minors a year ago.

The Guardians do a lot of touting of Gabriel Arias, because he has a very strong exit velocity when he hits the ball. However, that’s the problem. He whiffed in 32.8% of his at bats for the Cleveland a year ago.

In addition to being last in the majors in home runs last season, the Guardians also struck out the least. However, it is possible hit for power and not whiff excessively.

Of the top ten in the lowest number of strikeouts last year, five teams made the playoffs, including the Braves, who led the majors in home runs with 307, and Houston, who were fifth in the bigs in runs scored.

We have our doubts that the new power with high strikeout rates will work for the Guardians. We think they should focus on getting more men on base, a higher on-base percentage.

Of the teams with the 10 worst OBP in the sport in 2023, none made the playoffs. Maybe there is a correlation there.

Guardians’ Off-Season Has Been Riveting

Today is January 7, 2024. This means in 37 days; baseball fans hear the expression they have waited for since the World Series ended on November 1st: ”Pitchers and catchers report to spring training”.

If you are a fan of the Cleveland Guardians, it has been watching the constant upgrades to the roster, as the front office addressed the weaknesses, particularly the hitting, which finished 12th in the American League in runs scored.

The heavy sarcasm is intended.

Yes, we know the Guardians have a new manager, but they have done little else with spring training commencing in little over a month.

And this isn’t last season, coming off a Central Division title, the Guardians were a below .500 team in 2023.

First, they selected 1B/OF Alfonso Rivas from Pittsburgh off waivers, and then put him on waivers themselves several weeks later. They also added C Christian Bethancourt from Tampa Bay via the same method, and then traded him to Miami for cash (we will spare the sarcasm here, oh guess we didn’t) a little over a month later.

The biggest move they made was designating Cal Quantrill for assignment, and then trading him to Colorado for a minor league catcher. Apparently, when Terry Francona retired, so did the mantra that you can’t have too much pitching.

The one move that would rank highest on the excitement level (still would be around a 4 on a scale of 1-10) would be acquiring reliever Scott Barlow from San Diego for Enyel De La Santos. Barlow is a former closer and could be a cure for overusing Emmanuel Clase, assuming he isn’t traded before the season starts, as there have been rumors.

The Guardians didn’t stop there though. In kind of a secret move, Oscar Gonzalez, a post-season hero just a year and a half ago, was put on waivers and claimed by the Yankees.

Since they lost Quantrill, team president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff swung into action and signed Ben Lively, not to be confused with actress Blake Lively, as a free agent from Cincinnati.

Lively, 32, could be another veteran anchor to the Cleveland rotation. That is if you dismiss his career 5.05 ERA in 208 big league innings. He had a 5.38 ERA for the Reds last year, but of course, their home park is very hitter friendly.

Unfortunately, his ERA at home was 4.70 and his road figure was 5.90.

Austin Hedges, a fan favorite (why?) was brought back as a free agent. Hedges is a tremendous defensive catcher, but he his OPS over the last three seasons have been 461, 489, and 527. And the first figure was the most recent.

The day after Christmas, the Guardians dealt oft-injured pitcher Cody Morris to the Yankees for left-handed hitter OF Estevan Florial, a former top 100 prospect.

Florial hit .230 (635 OPS) in 61 at bats for New York last season. He did belt 28 homers and put up a 945 OPS at AAA last year. He does strike out a lot, but his walk rate has got better over the past two seasons. No sarcasm here, but perhaps he can help.

On the other hand, he hits left-handed, not really an area of need, although the power would help.

Our point is it must be very tough to be a salesman in the ticket office for this team. They’ve virtually given their fans nothing to be excited about, although we are sure they would say it is because of the uncertainty surrounding their local television deal.

Perhaps in the next 30 days, they will be involved in doing something to significantly help their new skipper, Steven Vogt, have a more competitive squad.

We are sure the prospect gurus out there will tell us how several rookies will impact the 2024 edition of the Cleveland Guardians and all will be well.

Truth be told, we like some of their talent coming up, and hope those folks are correct. Our experience tells us most of those good young players won’t make an impact in 2024.

Hot Stove Season? More like Hot Doze Season if you are a fan of the Guardians.

Guardians’ Starting Depth? Not That Much.

The Cleveland Guardians pride themselves on being a pitching factory. Even the national media talks about it. When we read that, we always think what happened to the blueprints for the hitting factory.

A recent ranking of starting rotations in the sport had Cleveland ranked 24th though, far below where they normally sit. And frankly, that ranking makes sense to us.

Right now, the rotation consists of two pitchers who missed significant time with arm problems in Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, and three guys who have less than a season of experience.

Bieber has missed substantial parts in two of the last three seasons with injuries, completing only the 2022 season, when he went 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA and 198 strikeouts in 200 innings.

Last season, his velocity was down, but he still was reasonably effective in 128 innings, pitching to a 3.80 ERA (league average was 4.33) and allowing less hits than innings pitched.

McKenzie pitched in just four games, totaling only 16 innings with an elbow issue. That issue has led many pitchers to “Tommy John surgery”, and frankly, that’s still a concern for us heading into the season. And if something happens during spring training, we won’t see the 26-year-old until the 2025 season.

The three rookies were very impressive in 2023, but still, it was their first year and since there is no track record for any of this trio, we have no idea what to expect.

Tanner Bibee was the star, finishing second in the American League rookie of the year voting, pitching to a 2.98 ERA in 25 starts totaling 142 innings. He allowed just 122 hits while striking out 141 and walking 45.

Lefty Logan Allen made 24 starts and went 7-8 with a 3.81 ERA in 125.1 innings, giving up 127 hits, whiffing 119 and issuing 48 walks. And former first round pick Gavin Williams made 16 starts and had a 3.29 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 82 innings with 37 walks.

Impressive as they are, the 2024 season will tell if they can be like the three rookies in the 1984 Kansas City Royals’ rotation, Bret Saberhagen, Mark Gubicza, and Danny Jackson, who helped lead the Royals to their first world championship in 1985.

On the other hand, the last starting pitcher who was the rookie of the year was Detroit’s Michael Fullmer, whose ERA was more than a half run worse the following year, and his strikeout rate was down.

The history of the game shows a bunch of pitchers who were very good in their first season, and once the hitters got a book on them, didn’t have the same success going forward. We think both Bibee and Williams in particular have good enough stuff to overcome this, but until we see it, there has to be a bit of doubt.

There isn’t much depth behind this group. Cleveland signed 32-year-old Ben Lively from Cincinnati, who has a career 5.05 ERA, and still has holdovers Hunter Gaddis (49.1 career innings, 6.57 ERA) and Xzavion Curry (4.07 ERA in long relief, spot starting duty last season)

It was mentioned in a piece by Mike Axisa last week that perhaps Trevor Stephan might profile better as a starting pitcher, as he was in the minor leagues before 2019.

And of course, the next man who should be ready from the pitching factory is left-hander Will Dion, who had a 2.39 ERA at high Class A and AA last year, fanning 129 in 116.1 innings, allowing just 91 hits.

There is very little experience in the group we mentioned, especially if a rumored deal involving Bieber is completed. We are sure a pitching prospect will come back, but of course, that just adds another unproven arm.

That’s a lot of questions for a team that likes to consider itself a contender for a post-season spot. Does the organization still think that way?