Lincecum’s Deal Means Bye Bye to Ubaldo

It was reported that the Indians are pondering whether or not to make a qualifying offer of approximately $14.1 million to potential free agent right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez.

Here’s hoping that GM Chris Antonetti decides to make the offer.

We don’t have any illusions of keeping Jimenez for the 2014 season. The Giants monstrous deal for Tim Lincecum made it likely that some team will give the American League’s pitcher of the month for September a very rich man.

Still, the Tribe should make the qualifying offer because if Jimenez refuses, which is a most likely scenario, then Cleveland will get an additional first round pick in next year’s amateur draft.

And even if Ubaldo accepts, it’s a one-year contract and there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal. Why? Because the franchise isn’t hamstrung by an agreement that keeps going on and on (see Hafner, Travis).

The Indians and Jimenez have a mutual option for 2014, which the Tribe will most definitely pick up and Jimenez most certainly will turn down seeing the cash that Lincecum received considering he hasn’t been a dominant hurler since 2011.

The two-time Cy Young Award winner went 10-14 with a 4.37 ERA with San Francisco in 2013, and that was the better of last two years. He had an ERA over 5.00 in 2012 (5.18).

Yet he received $35 million for the next two years.

You have to believe that Jimenez’ agent will use that contract as a starting point in any negotiation, and the Indians won’t pay that, nor should they give that much cash to a pitcher who pitched well a half season for a team he played two and a half years for.

Still, it’s a win-win situation to offer the righty the qualifying offer. If he accepts, the Tribe gets a guy who looks like he may have figured out his problems in the last two months of ’13.

And if he reverts back to the guy who pitched for Cleveland in 2012, the Indians can let him walk away afterwards.

If he declines the offer, then Antonetti gets another first round pick in the draft to help stock up the farm system.

The worse that may happen is you either blow the pick or Jimenez stays in a Tribe uniform for 2014 and pitches like he has most of his time here.

And really, with Lincecum’s outrageous deal, why would Ubaldo’s agent take the qualifying offer?

In the Indians’ shoes, they can’t sign players over 30 years old or pitchers to long-term pricey contracts. While Lincecum’s deal is only for two years, the guess here is Jimenez will be seeking and will probably get a four or five year agreement.

What this means is Antonetti will have to get creative to find the starting pitcher he would like to get to complete the rotation.

They will make a legitimate offer to Scott Kazmir, but we wouldn’t go over two years because of the southpaw’s history.

So, it may lead to a trade for an established pitcher already under contract. There have been rumors the Tribe is interested in Tampa’s David Price, which would be an ideal pick up.

Remember, Justin Masterson is a free agent after the 2014 season, while Price cannot be one until after the following season.

Could Antonetti be thinking of a one season pairing of Masterson and Price with Danny Salazar as the ace in waiting?

That’s how mid market teams have to operate, but they need a strong farm system to do it.

Getting a draft pick out of the Ubaldo Jimenez situation helps in that regard too.

Why Asdrubal Should Stay

With the major league trading deadline coming in less than three weeks, the rumor mill has been very active, especially regarding the Cleveland Indians.

Most of the supposed deals have the Tribe getting pitching, since they rank 12th in the American League in ERA, and recently their bullpen has provided more ups and downs than the roller coasters at Cedar Point.

However, one that hit this week really shocked us. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that Cleveland is talking to the St. Louis Cardinals about SS Asdrubal Cabrera, who is having a down year to this point in the season.

While the Cardinals have a lot of young pitching in their organization, this seems to be the kind of move that would be made if a team was out of the pennant race or in the off-season, not 2-1/2 games out as we approach the All-Star break.

This is true for several reasons. First, Cabrera isn’t hitting as well as he has in the past, meaning his market value is down. Here are the shortstop’s OPS over the last few years–

2009     799
2010     673
2011     792
2012     762
2013     722

His lifetime OPS is 752, so right now he is 30 points below his average season, and around 70 points behind his best seasons of ’09 and ’11. At 27 years old, he figures to still be capable of getting back to the 800 level.

Many people feel the Tribe can afford to deal the two-time all-star because of the availability of Mike Aviles, but that is poorly thought out for two reasons. Aviles is a much better hitter as a part-time player, hitting just .250 in his lone year as a regular in Boston last season. His career batting average is .275.

Also, who would replace Aviles on the bench? The Indians’ success this season has come in part because their bench is very strong, getting big production out of players like Aviles, Ryan Raburn, Jason Giambi, and Yan Gomes.

Who would take over Aviles’ role as the utility infielder? That’s a big question that GM Chris Antonetti has to think about.

A trade would make sense if the Tribe would be getting back a proven major league starting pitcher in return, but it doesn’t appear that would be the case. Most of the names involved are Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Michael Wacha, and Carlos Martinez, all top 10 prospects for the Cardinals.

However, out of the four of them, Miller has the most experience, a total of 19 big league starts. As good as Miller is reported to be, there is no evidence that he will be a successful starter for a team in a race for the playoffs. Plus, his highest inning total in the minors is 151, meaning the Cleveland front office would want to limit his to around 175 for the season.

He has already thrown 104 on the season.

This trade would make a lot more sense in the winter. By then, prime prospect SS Francisco Lindor will have half a year at the AA level, meaning he could be promoted to the bigs sometime during the 2014 season.

The Indians could get away with a half-year of Aviles starting as short with Lindor taking over in the middle of the year. Don’t forget the Tribe has a plethora of middle infield players on the horizon, with SS Ronny Rodriguez playing at Akron now and maybe moving to Columbus soon.

Dealing a player like Cabrera for pitching help would make sense since the Tribe would be dealing from strength. Just not now with the team in contention.

That just doesn’t make sense.

Ease Up Tribe Fans, Still a Long Way to Go

Going into the weekend wrap around series against the Tigers, we heard many fans of the Cleveland Indians saying the worst the Tribe could do was split the series.

Apparently, anything less than that and these people thought the Indians would be out of the race.

Terry Francona’s bunch lost three out of four contests, yet they are just 3-1/2 games out of the top spot in the AL Central, with 73 games remaining. There is almost three months left in the season, so if the Tribe can make up one game a month, they would be right there for the division lead.

We understand that Cleveland fans panic where at all possible, but a quick check of the American League standing show the Orioles 4-1/2 games behind the Red Sox in the Eastern Division, and the Yankees five games back.

Do you think either of those teams think they are facing long odds to make the post-season? Of course not.

That isn’t to say the Indians’ front office should be feeling good about the ballclub either. The pitching staff needs bolstering, particularly needing an innings eater to give some rest to a bullpen that has been worked hard thus far.

Right now, Francona and pitching coach Mickey Calloway have two starting pitchers that have trouble completing six innings, and another spot in the rotation that is currently unoccupied, at least until Zack McAllister returns from his finger injury.

Ubaldo Jimenez is the ultimate “five and fly” guy these days. For the most part, he has been okay, keeping his team in the game most of the time, but when the fifth inning ends, he is usually around 100 pitches. And when he starts to get fatigued, he starts walking batters, so the manager has to get him out of there.

Francona and Calloway are also being careful with lefty Scott Kazmir, removing him from the game when he gets near 100 pitches. Since, Kazmir spent the last couple of years on baseball’s scrap heap, that’s probably not a bad idea.

GM Chris Antonetti is looking for a good starter, according to reports, looking at the Cubs’ Matt Garza and supposedly the Brewers’ Yovani Gallardo.

The latter is having an off-year in 2013 (7-8. 4.85 ERA), but won 13, 14, 17 and 16 games in the four years prior with ERAs under 4.00 in a hitter’s park.

Garza has gone 5-1 in ’13 with an ERA of 3.22, but has a plus fastball. He’s had some arm problems, and is only 62-62 for his career, despite outstanding stuff.

Another guy to look at is the Cubs’ Jeff Samardzija, who is 5-8 with a 3.54 ERA. To us, he could be a guy like Doug Fister is for the Tigers. He blossomed once he left a losing organization.

The former Notre Dame wide receiver (he was Brady Quinn’s favorite target) throws in the high 90 MPH range and averages a strikeout per inning on the season. Away from Wrigley Field, he has a 2.71 ERA.

The price tag for Samardzija might be a little higher than it would be for Garza, who will be a free agent at the end of the year, but he’s only 28 years old and can’t be a free agent until 2016.

He would be #1 on our wish list if the Cubs make him available.

Another starter is needed pretty quick to aid this beleaguered staff. Hopefully, Antonetti doesn’t have to wait until the deadline to make a move.

Until then, relax Tribe fans. There’s a lot of baseball left to be played.

Tribe Needs to Add Starter to Rest Bullpen

While we all wish the nation a happy birthday today, the other thing that make July 4th significant to a baseball fan is that is less than four weeks away from the trading deadline in the sport.

And with the Cleveland Indians sitting just a half game out of first place in the AL Central Division, GM Chris Antonetti is very much a buyer, trying to improve his club for the stretch run.

There is debate as to what Antonetti should persue. Should he get another solid bat, some help for the bullpen or another starting pitcher?

We go with the latter, although another southpaw of the bullpen would be nice as well.

The reason we feel this way has been made evident in the last week of games, of which the Indians have won five of six contests.

Checking out the innings pitched by the starters in each of those games–

Bauer             1/3 IP
Carrasco 5-1/3 IP
Jimenez            5 IP
Masterson       9 IP
Kluber     5-1/3 IP
Kazmir             5 IP

Outside of Masterson’s complete game last Sunday, the Tribe’s starters are putting a tremendous strain on the bullpen, which could explain some of the struggles the relief corps have experienced this season.

Of contending teams, only Toronto’s starters (5.42) and Baltimore’s starters (5.67) have thrown less innings per game than Cleveland’s (5.72). And the Orioles recognized that need and traded for Scott Feldman, who threw six innings in his first start.

By contrast, Oakland and Boston led the league, both averaging over six innings per start.

Masterson has given Terry Francona almost seven innings per start this season, showing that he indeed is a workhorse, and for the most part has kept the Tribe in the game in each of his starts. However, his innings per start is by far the best on the roster.

Ubaldo Jimenez has been improved this year, there is no questioning that. Still, he is only averaging 5.22 innings per start, mostly because he is around 100 pitches at that point in the game. Yes, there have been some early exits for the righty because he’s been hit, but for the most part, he’s kept the Tribe in the game, but only for about five frames.

The same for left-hander Scott Kazmir, averaging 5.28 innings per start. Francona is being careful with him for sure, since he was pitching in an independent league last season, but he hasn’t been able to pitch deep into games.

Corey Kluber has been a pleasant surprise for the staff, but he is also throwing less than six innings in an average start. And his last two outings, he has not seen the seventh inning.

The Tribe misses Zack McAllister, who was able to complete six innings in over half of his 11 starts. He’s been replaced by Carlos Carrasco, who is averaging five innings per outing, and that includes a seven inning start vs. the Royals.

A pitching staff can endure one or maybe two pitchers who can’t go deep into games, but right now, the Tribe has an entire rotation of these guys, with the exclusion of Masterson. That’s the reason Francona loves to have as many relief pitchers as he can on the roster.

Antonetti would love to have another starter who can soak up innings on his staff. That will keep guys like Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, and the three guys at the end of the game (Joe Smith, Vinnie Pestano, and Chris Perez) fresh for August and September, when playoff berths can be decided.

The bullpen shouldn’t have to pitch four innings every night.

If Tribe Makes Move, It Should Be Dealing from Strength

With the Cleveland Indians playing well and actually getting into a tie for first place after Sunday’s win over the Tigers, Tribe fans are thinking about what GM Chris Antonetti can do to put his team over the top.

Most everyone feels Terry Francona needs one more quality starting pitcher if his team is going stay in the race into and throughout September.

That leads to speculation as to what the Indians would have to give up to land someone who would upgrade the starting rotation.

Keep in mind that weakening your squad in one area to help in another doesn’t usually work out unless you have someone as good to take the place of the player you are dealing.

That would mean not trading one of the players who consistently comes up in this discussion, SS Asdrubal Cabrera.

Mike Aviles is a nice player, and has done a solid job with the Tribe, but he’s not an everyday player, let alone an everyday SS. Check his numbers, he is much more productive getting 350 to 400 at bats in a season, not 600 in a year.

That’s the argument for some so-called “experts”, you can trade Cabrera because Aviles can step in and play short.

If Antonetti was to deal Cabrera, a two-time all-star, he would have to get a top of the rotation type starter, and who is going to deal one of those? We don’t see teams willing to make that kind of trade.

If you are going to get a middle of the road starter, aren’t you better off just going with Trevor Bauer or Carlos Carrasco, either of whom might be better than someone a bad team is trying to unload?

The other player usually mentioned in trade talk is SS Francisco Lindor, Cleveland’s best prospect now playing at Class A Carolina and hitting .330 at age 19.

Certainly, Lindor would be desirable to any organization. Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan said that Lindor might just be the minor league’s top prospect period by the end of the season.

Many teams, particularly those out of the race and looking to shed salary, would be happy to trade you a good to very good starter for Lindor. However, Lindor may be the Cleveland version of Derek Jeter, a franchise SS who can play 10-15 years with the Indians.

That’s not to denigrate Cabrera, who is a very good player, arguably the best shortstop in the American League.

But Lindor is showing signs that he is special, and the Indians cannot take the chance of trading him and having him develop into a perennial all-star type player.

As said before, you have to make these types of deals from a position of strength. And where does the Indians’ organization have a lot of talent? The bullpen.

That’s why a possible trade for closer Chris Perez could make sense. The Indians have a few options they could look at to close games, such as Vinnie Pestano, Cody Allen, and perhaps Bryan Shaw.

The farm system is also filled with bullpen candidates like Trey Haley, Preston Guilmet, Scott Barnes, Bryce Stowell, and Austin Adams.

Understand that the concern there would be switching to an unproven closer in the middle of a successful season, but with the depth in this area, it’s a well calculated gamble.

If the Indians stay in contention going into July, there is little doubt they will do something. But weakening one part of the team to help somewhere else makes no sense. That’s something to watch as the season unfolds.

Great Move by Tribe to Upgrade Bench

Much of the excitement over the fine off-season the Cleveland Indians front office had been based on getting Terry Francona to manage the squad, and the signings of free agents Nick Swisher, Mark Reynolds, Michael Bourn, and Brett Myers.

They also remade the bench, and so far those guys have come up huge in the early going for the Tribe.

With the injuries to Bourn and Swisher, and remember Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis missed some time as well, the bench guys have received playing time and have been productive.

Mike Aviles is tied for third in RBIs and Ryan Raburn in sixth on the club despite having played less than many of the players Francona writes in the batting order everyday.

And what may be even bigger, they understand their role.

Gone are the days of having to play Aaron Cunningham, Brett Lillibridge, and Vinny Rottino when a starter can’t go.

GM Chris Antonetti did an excellent job of getting veterans, who understand their job and their role, to come off the bench. These guys don’t need everyday at bats to stay sharp.

On the recent five game winning streak, Aviles had a five RBI game vs. Kansas City, and Raburn reincarnated Babe Ruth slugging a pair of homers in back to back games, and getting 12 hits in 14 at bats.

That’s getting help from the bench.

It helps that both Aviles and Raburn are 32 years old. They’ve been around the game for a while and they aren’t looking for a chance to play every day.

Aviles was the Red Sox’ starting shortstop last season, but his career shows he’s been much better when he doesn’t play everyday. He hit .250 in 2012, but is a career .276 hitter.

Raburn suffered through a terrible season in 2012, batting just .171 with only one home run. However, he averaged 15 dingers a year from 2009-11 with the Tigers and can play both corner outfield spots, as well as 2B and 3B.

Certainly, Aviles and Raburn have been the key contributors, but you can’t overlook the play of reserve catcher Yan Gomes and DH Jason Giambi.

Gomes, who came in the same deal with Toronto as did Aviles, is slowly but surely replacing Lou Marson as the back up catcher, showing more offense in his limited at bats as Marson ever did. The Brazilian native has four extra base hits in 31 at bats, compared to 10 all last year from Marson.

Giambi has two doubles, two homers, and three walks in limited playing time. He’s also well-respected in the clubhouse, a great role model for the young players like Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall.

And Francona has experience in using a veteran bench too. He tries to put all of these guys in positions where they can succeed.

The production from the bench will also keep the regulars fresh over the long haul of baseball’s regular season. Last year, it was evident that Asdrubal Cabrera and Kipnis wore down from playing every day as the Tribe didn’t have a quality reserve that the manager, Manny Acta, could trust.

No one should expect Raburn to continue channel Hank Aaron for the rest of the season, and there will certainly be days and weeks where the reserve players won’t produce.

Still, the Indians filled some holes on the bench which are just as important as the ones they filled in the starting lineup.

Those moves have helped the Indians tread water during the first month of the season.

Tribe Starting Pitching Still a Bit Scary

Indians’ GM Chris Antonetti did a major rehaul over the off-season to his baseball team, mostly concentrating on the offense, adding Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, and Mark Reynolds to what was a moribund attack in 2012.

As for the starting pitching, not so much. He did sign veteran free agent Brett Myers to provide innings, and he traded for highly regarded Trevor Bauer to give help down the road, but overall he was hoping for bounce back seasons from Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez.

Now we understand this is spring training, and things may be totally different down the road, but so far we haven’t seen anything that makes us any more confident about the starting rotation when the season begins a week from Tuesday in Toronto.

Both pitchers have done okay, but they don’t look like the top of the rotation guys that Detroit (Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer), Chicago (Chris Sale, Jake Peavy), and even Kansas City (James Shields) have.

Masterson doesn’t have bad numbers in camp, allowing the same number of hits as innings pitched and striking out 19 in 17-2/3 innings. But in the Tribe’s first televised game last Sunday, he gave up two home runs in a five run first.

That didn’t exactly inspire confidence that much has changed from 2012.

Jimenez is serving up batting practice in Goodyear, but he’s not exactly dominating either. While his walks are down and he’s throwing strikes (just three walks in 18 innings), he’s allowing hits by the boatload, giving up 26 thus far this spring.

Neither pitcher has shown an ability to limit damage either after starting an inning poorly. That may be due to not having stamina as of yet, but it is concerning because it was a problem for both last season.

Right now, it appears that Cleveland has a bunch of #3 and #4 starters, but no clear-cut ace at this point.

They do have more depth than at this time last season, with Zack McAllister showing signs he may be a solid major league starters, and it is likely that both Carlos Carrasco and Bauer will start the season in Columbus.

Myers has a long history of being a solid starter, but he’s an innings eater type, not a top of the rotation guy. That’s not to say those guys aren’t important. If Myers can go out there every fifth day and provide six or seven solid frames, that’s invaluable to a pitching staff.

McAllister had solid numbers in ’12, his first extended look at big league hitters. He has the potential to move up in the pecking order this season, but still has to develop consistency on an outing to outing basis.

The Tribe’s fifth starter will likely be Scott Kazmir, who is intriguing because he is coming off a year where he pitched in an independent league. Kazmir is a former big league all-star, and has regained the velocity he once had. Still, it’s hard to see him as the ace of the staff this season.

There is no question the Indians will score more runs than 2012, they have replaced many of the holes their lineup had with established major league hitters.

However, whatever success the Tribe has in 2013 will depend on the success of the starting pitching. Terry Francona needs someone to step up and be a guy the team feels can win every time they take the mound.

Right now, it doesn’t look like that guy will be on the team when Opening Day hits. The biggest hopes may be Carrasco and Bauer, both of whom have ace “stuff”.

Bourn Signing OK, A Starter Would Have Been Better

The Cleveland Indians shocked everyone in the baseball world by signing free agent CF Michael Bourn to a four-year contract, worth an estimated $48 million.

We aren’t sure how much this helps the 2013 Tribe, at least offensively.

We are happy that the front office was able to spend money, and it shows a change in how the Dolan family is running the team, but with the state of the starting rotation, the dollars would be better spent there.

To be sure, the Indians may have baseball’s best defensive outfield with Bourn, flanked by Drew Stubbs in right and Michael Brantley in left. And that should help a pitching staff that ranked last in the AL in ERA last season.

However, the American League is an offensive league, particularly in the regular season, and it says here that Bourn doesn’t help the offense all that much. Why? Because he’s not a very good offensive player.

Here’s hoping Tribe fans don’t see a speedy, centerfielder and think of former Indian great Kenny Lofton, because GM Chris Antonetti’s latest signing doesn’t compare favorably.

Bourn, a left-handed hitter has a lifetime OPS of just 704. He’s a leadoff man by trade, yet his career on base percentage is just .339.

To be fair, in recent years he has been close to the .350 mark which is acceptable for a guy hitting at the top of the order. However, by comparison to the best leadoff hitter the Indians have had in recent years, Lofton, Bourn isn’t close. Lofton’s career on base percentage was a robust .372.

Also, the newest Indian has little pop. His lifetime slugging percentage is .365 and last year it was still under .400 (.391). Just for a comparison that you won’t like, Ezequiel Carrera’s slugging percentage for Cleveland last year? Try .395.

When Bourn gets on base, he can run, averaging 51 stolen bases per season over 162 games. He’s also an excellent defender, the winner of two Gold Gloves.

For $12 million per year, you should expect a little more with the stick. And for a player who makes his living with his legs, you have to wonder how effective of a player Bourn will be in the last two years of the contract, when he will be 32 and 33 years old.

Many baseball website rated Bourn as one of the top free agents in the off-season, mostly based on his WAR (wins above replacement player). However, that rating is inflated because of his defense at a premium defensive position.

Still, according to Baseball Reference.com, the most comparable hitters to Bourn at this point in his career are former Indian Dave Roberts, Albie Pearson and Roger Cedeno. All solid major league players, but no immortals there.

Bourn will enable Terry Francona to perhaps move Nick Swisher to 1B and DH Mark Reynolds, or even isolate Stubbs weaknesses at the plate by limiting his at bats vs. right-handers. He’s a better hitter than Stubbs, so if you consider that an upgrade then we have to agree.

Swisher was a solid signing because he’s a consistent player with OPS of between 743 and 870 throughout his major league career. His lifetime figure is 828 and he’s usually around that figure.

If this signing enables Antonetti to deal an outfielder, preferably Stubbs, for a legitimate starting pitcher, then it’s a good move.

Bourn isn’t a bad player, it just says here he won’t be an impact signing for the Indians. At those dollars, he should be.

Did Tribe Help Offense Enough?

Unlike the past few seasons, the front office of the Cleveland Indians actually made some moves this off-season.

They traded arguably their best hitter, Shin-Soo Choo, because he was going to be a free agent after the 2013 season, and they turned him into top starting pitcher prospect Trevor Bauer, with OF Drew Stubbs thrown in the deal.

For a team that finished second last in the AL in runs scored, dealing your best hitter isn’t regarded as a smart thing, but GM Chris Antonetti did sign free agent Nick Swisher to replace Choo. So, what else did the GM do to help the offense?

He did sign free agent Mark Reynolds to play 1B to replace Casey Kotchman which is an improvement there. Of course, it would have been better for the Indians to sign pretty much anyone else to play the position because you can make the argument that Kotchman may have been the worst offensive player in the big leagues at that spot in 2012.

So, much of the improvement for Terry Francona’s squad will come from wishing and hoping. Some of that hope is merited and some is not.

On the positive side, Francona should get better seasons out of 2B Jason Kipnis (.335/.379/.714), Lonnie Chisenhall (.311/.430/.731), and Carlos Santana (.365/.420/.785).

Kipnis will be entering his second full year in the majors at age 26 and his career should be on an upswing. He will likely hit with more pop with experience and his slugging percentage should get into the .450 range with more doubles and homers. He’s a better hitter than the one who had just 40 extra base hits last season.

For perspective, Jack Hannahan had 20 extra base hits in half the at bats. Most people will agree that “the JK Kid” is a better hitter than Hannahan.

Chisenhall has been hurt by both injuries and former skipper Manny Acta’s love for Hannahan.

In 350 at bats lifetime, Chisenhall has 12 career homers. And as for his supposed lack of ability against southpaws, he has an OPS of almost 700 (696) against lefties and has hit five dingers in 88 career at bats.

For the record, 88 times at the plate is not a large enough samples to suggest he can’t hit left-handers.

Santana is entering his 27-year-old season, and he should be poised for a bounce back year after his OPS dropped below 800 for the first time in his career. His average for 162 games in his career is 24 HR, 83 RBI, and an 806 OPS.

Francona would gladly take those numbers.

However, as much as those guys figure to be better, Reynolds and Stubbs could be potential nightmares.

Reynolds had an 892 OPS in 2009, an outstanding figure and one that would make you overlook the 223 times he struck out that season. Since then, he’s had an OPS no higher than 806, and his batting average hasn’t been above .221.

He’s been pretty even over his career at home or on the road, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Reynolds hit in the .210 range, although with some long balls. If the rest of the lineup hits that’s fine, but here’s hoping fans aren’t expecting the guy who played in ’09.

Stubbs’ OPS has dropped from 773 in 2010, when he hit .255 with 22 homers to 686 in ’11 and down to 610 last year. As a comparison, Kotchman’s OPS last season was 612.

Stubbs is 28 years old so he should be in line for a bit of a bounce back season. But if he doesn’t, the alternatives are Ezequiel Carrera or rookies like Tim Fedroff, which may not be bad.

The point is this. The Indians have improved the offense, but is it enough to climb from 13th in the league in runs scored to the top half of the American League, which is where they need to be to contend.

That improvement will be more dependent on the progress of Santana, Kipnis, and Chisenhall, than on big seasons from Reynolds and Stubbs.

The starting rotation has similar questions.

Fans should be thrilled that the front office did a makeover on a team that has lost 90 games in three of the last four years. The question that has to be asked is: Did they do enough?

One More Change Needed For Tribe

With spring training ready to start in less than a week, Cleveland baseball fans have a reason to feel optimistic.

They have a new manager, not just any recycled skipper, but a man who has two World Series victories under his belt in Terry Francona. They signed a high-profile free agent for the first time in many years in Nick Swisher. And they have to feel good about a trio of young players who are poised to make an impact in 2013 in Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Michael Brantley.

However, there is one more thing that needs to change for the organization when the team convenes in Goodyear next week. Spring training needs to be meaningful, meaning the 25 man roster shouldn’t be set before camp begins.

Earlier this week, MLB Network’s Peter Gammons reported that the Indians’ front office was going to bring starter Trevor Bauer to the major leagues when he is ready, and were not going to rush him, meaning it will probably be a mid-season call up for one of the top prospects in the minors.

GM Chris Antonetti may have been trying to take pressure off of Bauer, and lowering the expectations of fans, who look at the right hander just acquired from Arizona as a savior for the starting rotation.

That, in itself, is not a bad thing.

However, if Bauer pitches well in spring training and is dominant in the exhibition games, don’t think for a moment that Francona isn’t going to push for the kid to come north for Opening Day.

That’s the way is should be. Remember that Charlie Manuel had to lobby hard to keep a 20-year-old left-hander on the big league roster in 2001. C.C. Sabathia did just fine, going 17-5 in his rookie year.

Antonetti has brought in some veterans to compete for roster spot in Arizona, and some of those players are good risks. Ryan Raburn and Ben Francisco could make the team as reserves, and Matt Capps could earn a bullpen spot as well. All three have been good players in the past.

However, if they struggle in spring training and a guy like Tim Fedroff or even Ezequiel Carrera do very well, then Francona and Antonetti should keep the players who earned the spot. Too many times in recent years, the Tribe has kept the veteran who had a marginal spring, and have to release him during the season because he’s not getting the job done.

If a young player out-performs one of these non roster invitees to spring training, they should open the season with the big club.

Although Capps has a much better track record than pitchers like Jamey Wright, Chad Durbin, and Dan Wheeler, here’s hoping he’s not lumped in with them at the end of the season. The latter three were all borderline hurlers, yet the Indians let them make the team and only Durbin lasted an entire season, albeit in a mop up role.

It is our belief that Francona will not let Antonetti bully him on the make up of the roster. Manny Acta seemed to allow the GM to decide what players would make the roster, and Eric Wedge never picked the right team coming out of spring training.

Francona has a great relationship with both Antonetti and team president Mark Shapiro, but he also wants to win, and win right away. If he feels a young player is ready to help the Indians win when April 1st comes around, he is going to fight for that guy to make the big club.

That’s just one more change that is going to help the 2013 version of the Cleveland Indians.