Guardians Need Pop, But From Good Hitters

When people talk about the Cleveland Guardians’ offense and how to improve it, the conversation usually centers around home runs. The Guards simply don’t hit many, ranking last in the majors, 27 behind the team with the next fewest, the Washington Nationals.

But we feel Cleveland doesn’t need guys who hit home runs, rather they need good hitters who can also hit home runs.

Right now, we would say the Guardians have two of these hitters in Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor. Ramirez hit .282 this season with a .356 on base percentage and also had 65 extra base hits, including 24 home runs.

Naylor batted .308 to rank fifth in the American League in batting average (he would have been third had he had enough at bats) with a .354 OBP and 48 extra base hits.

We mention extra base hits because that is power. Getting double and triples usually result in runs being scored.

And we say that knowing we watched the Guardians hit a lot of leadoff doubles and stranded that hitter at second base. The days of get ’em over and get ’em in are over folks. Although we don’t know why.

The Guardians also need to walk more (and swing less). Cleveland ranks 6th in the major leagues in swinging at pitches, and it may surprise you to know of the seven teams that rank highest in swing rate, five of them have bad or average offenses (White Sox, Rockies, Angels, Royals, and Guardians). Only the Braves and Rays buck that trend.

Teams that swing a lot are vulnerable to good pitching, usually because you are not just swinging at pitches in the strike zone. If you are a regular reader of this site, you know we are very suspicious of hitters with high strikeout and low walk rates.

It’s why we are a bit concerned about Gabriel Arias, who had a 32.8% strikeout rate last season with just an 8.1% walk rate. Yes, he hits the ball hard, but he just doesn’t hit it that often.

Hitters who strikeout a lot and walk a lot are fine. First, walking means they are not making outs. Juan Soto is the prototype for this right now, he fanned 129 times this past season, and actually walked more, drawing a major league leading 132 walks.

We found this interesting. The top five in drawing walks in 2023 hit an average of 39.2 home runs, while the top five in strikeouts hit 29.4 long balls, almost 10 less than the more selective batters.

One player, Kyle Schwarber, ranked in the top five of both categories.

So, while the Guardians need to hit more home runs the ultimate goal would be to find hitters who swing at good pitches and can drive them. We thought that became the organizational philosophy when Ramirez and Francisco Lindor arrived. Find guys who make good contact and teach them to drive the ball.

They’ve done the first part, but the driving the ball hasn’t taken hold yet.

Maybe the next wave of that is George Valera, Kyle Manzardo, and Chase DeLauter.

The Guardians need more pop, but getting hitters who make a bunch of outs while doing it isn’t the answer.

Guardians’ Biggest Surprise? Division Is Up For Grabs

Baseball’s unofficial half way point of the season has arrived, and the Cleveland Guardians are just two games out of first place in the American League Central Division.

Is that a surprise? That really depends on how you view it.

We felt the Guardians would finish slightly below the .500 mark this season, projecting them with 79 victories. Since they are 46-44 right now, a mere two games above the break even point, they really cannot be considered shocking.

However, we are surprised they sit just two games out of first place.

What is eye opening is that the favorites coming into the season, the Chicago White Sox, have battled injuries and bad defense and sit at 46-46, a game behind Cleveland and three games behind the division leading Minnesota Twins.

So really, the surprise is the mediocrity of the division, not the Guardians’ record.

Still, the Guards have battled through a number of rainouts and therefore, doubleheaders, and a shift in the organizational philosophy, starting to depend more and more on a healthy farm system to replace non-productive players.

Steven Kwan, who did not have a big league at bat coming into the season, has played in 78 of the team’s 90 games, and has hit .279 with a .361 on base percentage.

Oscar Gonzalez played in 32 games before being injured and another player without MLB experience coming into the season, Richie Palacios, has been in 39 games.

And no doubt, Nolan Jones should be the next rookie to hit the 20 game plateau.

You would think unless some of the younger guys hit a wall, playing an extra 20 games in a season, the Guardians should be better in the second half because of the experience they have gained thus far.

The health of the pitching staff has been good (knock on wood). Only Aaron Civale has been on the injured list to date and he is currently on the shelf. Cleveland has only used eight starters this year, mostly because another rookie, Konnor Pilkington has been slotted in as the doubleheader starter.

He earned that role by being solid when Civale was injured earlier in the season.

However, with Civale out again, and more twin bills coming, the depth of the organization will be tested. We would guess another rook, right-hander Peyton Battenfield might get the next look, unless a trade is made.

Whatever the organizations’ plan was for this season should be adjusted because the division hasn’t played out how most people thought and is very much up for grabs. Even though the Guardians are in some ways conducting tryouts for young players, they are in the mix for a post-season spot.

We aren’t suggested going all in on a rental player, but we are sure the front office will be looking for players who can help now and over the next few seasons.

And remember, Cleveland still has a glut of middle infielders on their 40 man roster, and will need to clear more spots to protect more players coming through what now maybe the best farm system in the sport.

The big surprise is that no one has taken the AL Central Division and ran with it. Cleveland is right there. And maybe it wasn’t in the plans in March or April, but the Guardians are a contender.

Let’s hope the brass thinks they are too.

Tribe Needs To Do Better Vs. Good Pitching

It would not be shocking to say the Cleveland Indians need offense in the off-season. After all they rank 10th in the American League in runs scored, 12th in drawing walks, and 13th in on base percentage.

They also have a dreadful record against the better teams in the league, save for the divisional rival Chicago White Sox, who they have an 9-9 record against.

They are 9-25 against the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, and Blue Jays, all of whom have won 85 games or more this season, so they will all approach 90 victories. And throw in the beating administered at Progressive Field by Milwaukee a couple of weeks ago, and that mark drops to 9-28.

After an offensive resurgence in August, the hitting has been abysmal in September, as Friday night marked the fifth time (in 24 games) that the Indians were whitewashed. They have also scored 3 runs or less 14 times (more than half for non math majors) in the last month of the season.

The league average for runs scored by an AL team this year is 4.6, and Cleveland averages 4.38, making them below average, which we already established.

We wanted to see how they did against the best pitching staffs in the league. Tampa leads the AL in ERA and in the seven games against the Rays, Tribe hitters scored 23 runs, just 3.3 per contest.

New York is second, and thanks to the pair of drubbings in Yankee Stadium last weekend, the Indians averaged over five runs per game. They also had the best record against them out of all the AL East post-season contenders.

Third best in ERA is the White Sox, and although the Tribe is 9-9 against them, they are only scoring four runs. Fourth place Houston? Cleveland went 1-6, averaging exactly 3 runs a game.

Toronto is known for their hitting, but they are 5th in ERA and the Tribe scored just 22 runs in the seven games, which is a 3.1 average. Then comes Oakland, whom the Indians went 2-4 against, mainly because they scored just 17 runs in the six games, which is less than three per contest.

Why have the Tribe struggled against the good teams? Because they can’t score against good pitching staffs, and they have to get some bats that can succeed against the better hurlers in the game.

We have long maintained that you have to score runs to get to the playoffs. The top five in the Junior Circuit this year? Houston (likely AL West champs), Tampa Bay (playoffs), Toronto (wild card contender), Boston, (wild card leader), and the AL Central champion White Sox.

And against good teams, you have to execute offensively. How many times this season have the Indians had a leadoff double, only to see the runner never move off second? It happened Friday night when Owen Miller got to second base with no one out, only to see Roberto Perez, Oscar Mercado, and Bradley Zimmer not even put a ball in play.

Yes, the Indians are a young team, so there is room for improvement and growth, but on the other hand, we haven’t seen many hitters making adjustments from at bat to at bat against good pitching, recognizing what the opposing guy on the mound is trying to do and then counteracting it.

Some times you have to tip your hat to the pitchers. We have seen opponents have to do that to Tribe pitchers.

It can’t just be Jose Ramirez though. The Indians have to be able to handle good pitching, and it hasn’t just been this season. It’s one of the reasons the franchise hasn’t won a post-season game since they took a 2-0 lead against the Yankees in the 2017 Division Series.

Tribe Won’t Do It, But We’ll Look Ahead…

Without a doubt, the Cleveland Indians are a frustrating team to watch. They struggle to score runs for sure, and heck, they’ve been no-hit twice this season, and we are only a little over a third of the way through the campaign.

Yesterday’s 10-4 win over the Orioles marked just the second time this year the Tribe scored over 10 runs in a ballgame, and it was only the fifth time Terry Francona’s team won by more than five runs. Contrast this to the division leading White Sox, who have won 12 games by five tallies or more.

What this means is even when they win, and they have won often enough to be on a pace to win 90 games in 2021, they keep you on the edge of your seat. There are very few relaxing victories.

Cleveland has already played their chief division rivals, the Pale Hose, 11 times this season, winning six. That means two things. First, the Tribe doesn’t have as many opportunities to catch the Sox in head-to-head meetings, they play only eight more times.

On the other hand, it also means the Indians have already played the majority of their games against the best team in the AL Central Division, meaning they have 35 games against the Royals, Twins, and Tigers, against whom they have a 15-7 record.

We know the front office or Francona aren’t looking ahead, but the next two months offer a strict contrast in terms of the schedule.

The rest of June includes five more games against Baltimore (including today’s tilt) as well as three against Seattle, three vs. Pittsburgh, and seven total against division rivals the Twins and Tigers.

Cleveland better continue their winning ways because once the calendar turns to July, the slate gets brutal.

Heading into the All Star break, the Tribe plays four vs. Houston and a three game trip to Tampa before coming back for a four game series at Progressive Field against the Royals.

Following the Mid Summer Classic (which it still is, by the way), Francona’s crew resumes play with a six game trip to Oakland (a recent nightmare for Cleveland teams) and Houston.

They come home for four with the Rays and two with St. Louis, before ending the month with a series in Chicago against the White Sox and then on to Toronto.

The trade deadline comes during the series against the White Sox. At that point, will the organization be looking to buy or sell?

The front office has made some changes in the past week, cutting ties with Jake Bauers to take a look at slugging first baseman Bobby Bradley, and seems to have settled on a rotation of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, and J.C. Mejia for now.

The off days Cleveland has had in the past two weeks have allowed them to stretch out Quantrill and Mejia without putting undue stress on the bullpen.

The Indians need the latter two to provide some good outings until Zach Plesac can return to the rotation, probably after the All Star break.

This team is still built on pitching, and without it, it is very, very difficult for them to win games. They have to have it be a close game heading into the six inning.

Both Quantrill’s and Mejia’s first starts were encouraging and if at least one of them can provide solid innings to start games, it helps the organization rebuild some depth.

The Indians need to take advantage of the June games to establish themselves as contenders before the trade deadline. Then, maybe the front office will be allowed to spend some cash to improve the current roster.

Tough Three Week Stretch For The Tribe.

No one can or should complain about a 5-3 start for the Cleveland Indians. As former major leaguer and broadcaster Mike Hegan used to say, if you win three out of every five, you end the season at 96 wins, and that gets you in the playoffs more often than not.

After losing last night, if the Tribe wins tonight, they will have accomplished that at least for the first ten games of the season.

But the next three weeks should give us an idea of how good the 2021 Cleveland Indians are.

Through May 2nd, the Tribe takes on a quartet of teams who are projected to be serious contenders to be playing baseball in October: The White Sox (8 more games), The Reds (3), the Yankees (4), and the Twins (3).

Chicago and Minnesota rank 3rd and 4th in the American League in runs scored per game (Cleveland is 7th) while the Reds led the NL in scoring. To be fair, they haven’t faced the Cleveland staff, which is tied for the league lead in ERA with the Twins.

While the Tigers’ offense ranks 14th in runs, perhaps because they have played six games vs. the Indians’ staff, let’s look at the Royals. KC has scored 37 runs in seven games, ranking sixth in the AL at 5.29 per game.

However, in the two games against the Indians’ pitching staff, they scored five runs in two games. So, when they aren’t facing Cleveland, they are averaging 6.4 runs per contest, which would be second in the Junior Circuit.

It will be interesting to see how the Pale Hose, Reds, and Twins fair against the Tribe staff, which hasn’t allowed more than five runs in a contest to date.

And while the Cleveland hitters knocked around the Detroit pitching staff, the series in the Windy City will see Indians’ hitters facing some accomplished hurlers like Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, and Lance Lynn, while they will also probably see the Reds’ Luis Castillo in the last game in the Queen City.

We have already noted the Twins’ pitching ranks tied for first with the Tribe in ERA, and the Yankees are currently third. Will the Tribe be able to score runs against real good pitchers, which honestly, the Indians have not faced yet.

And will the contact Cleveland hitters have been making, they have still struck out the least amount of times in the league, suit them well and can it continue against top flight pitching?

Look, we aren’t downgrading the Tribe’s success to date. We have always said when folks have complained about beating bad teams, would they rather they lose to them? Of course not, there is something to be said for beating teams you are supposed to have success against.

Unfortunately, the schedule makers have only allowed Cleveland 38 opportunities to play the Royals and Tigers, meaning there are 124 other contests on the slate.

There is an old baseball adage that says you split with the contenders and beat up on the poor teams on the schedule, so we aren’t looking for Terry Francona’s team to dominate over the next three weeks, although that would be nice.

They just need to hold their own against them. And as we said, we are anxious to see how the lineup cobbles together runs against the likes of pitchers like Giolito, who has pitched well vs. the Tribe in the past two seasons, and Lynn.

That might give us a truer picture of how the 2021 edition of the Indians will fare this season.

Tribe Coming Down The Stretch. What Does That Mean In 2020?

The Cleveland Indians start play on Sunday with just 21 games remaining in this COVID abbreviated season. And they are in the midst of a pennant race, or are they?

Currently, the Tribe is a half game behind the Chicago White Sox, who sit in first place and they are virtually tied with Minnesota for second place.

With eight teams in the American League making the playoffs, it would be shocking in all three Central Division leaders didn’t advance to the post-season. There are no first round byes, so the trio is playing for playoff seeding and right now, the Sox would take on the Yankees, the Indians would get the Houston Astros, and Twins would take on Oakland.

Chicago and Cleveland would be designated as the home team for each game of the first round, best of three set, because the Indians have the edge by percentage points over Minnesota, and would be designated as the Central Division’s second place team, with the Twins getting a wild card position.

Of course, the lack of separation between the three teams make this situation very fluid. By the end of today, the Indians could be the 7th seed as a wild card, or the third seed as division leader.

Cleveland has a three game series at Target Field next weekend against the Twins, and host a four game set vs. the Pale Hose the last week of the season. The Tribe is currently 3-4 vs. Minnesota and are 4-2 against the Sox.

The White Sox host the Twins for a four game set, after the Tribe plays Rocco Baldelli’s squad, and of course, has the four game set in Cleveland, while the Twins have seven straight games vs. the other two contenders, followed by three against the NL Central leading Cubs.

We will know a lot about the Twins after that potentially brutal 10 game stretch.

Within the three teams, the young White Sox have fared the worst so far, going 4-8 against the other two top teams in the Central. They have dominated everyone else, going 20-7 against the rest of the schedule.

Minnesota has fared the best, going 8-5 in games between the three squads, with Cleveland being 5-6.

Chicago has ridden their offense so far, ranking second in the AL in runs scored per game at 5.26. But in six games against the Cleveland pitching staff, they’ve scored just 17 tallies, and that’s just 2.8 per contest.

The Twins have had a lot of injuries to date, which has hurt their highly touted offense. They’ve had Josh Donaldson for just 11 games and catcher Mitch Garver for just 17, so they rank just 11th in runs scored per game at 4.38.

FYI, the Indians average just 4.18 runs/game.

Against, the Tribe, Minnesota has scored only 18 runs in seven contests. That’s 2.6 per game.

So, while the AL Central top tier will probably all make it to October, that doesn’t mean the games aren’t important. Having the opportunity to bat last in the first three games during the post-season is important.

As for the overall AL post-season raced, it’s not much of one. Currently, Baltimore and Detroit are the first two teams looking in, and they are both three games behind the eighth spot, with Seattle four games out. With only between 20-25 games remaining, that will be tough to make up.

Both of those squads are below .500, so the Indians need to only win six games to probably be in, while we figure around 35-25 will get you home field for the first round. To do that, Cleveland needs to go 11-10 the rest of the way.

The bigger thing to watch for the Tribe is how they play against the Twins, Cubs, and White Sox coming down the stretch. Those are the best team remaining on the schedule.

We know Cleveland can beat the likes of Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Detroit, but they are 5-8 against the three teams mentioned before (meaning they are 19-7 against everyone else).

It’s not September baseball as we know it because of the expanded playoff system. Can you imagine the excitement about the division race, under the normal format? Because likely one and perhaps, two teams could be left out, and the wild card teams would have just the one game to get to the Division Series.

Still, the Tribe has questions. Can their hitting survive games where better pitchers are facing them? Can the bullpen remain solid? Can they find some production out of the outfield?

That’s the reason to watch these last 21 games, even if it seems the Indians will qualify for the playoffs.

Combo of Walks and Homers Hurting Tribe Pitching

Despite the slugging teams of the 1990’s, including a team that scored 1000 runs in a season (the last team in major league baseball to do so), Jacobs Field/Progressive Field has always been a pitcher’s park.

That speaks to how great those Indians teams that featured Albert Belle, Carlos Baerga, Manny Ramirez, and Jim Thome really were. They placed half of their games in a park that helped pitchers.

Now, the Indians have a problem. Their ballpark helps the pitchers and it is making it look better than it is.

Not that ranking 12th in the American League looks good. Cleveland pitchers rank ahead of only Baltimore, Toronto, and Houston in ERA.

However, on the road it is worse as Tribe hurlers rank ahead of only Seattle in terms of that statistic. That would partially explain why the Indians have lost 10 games in the row away from Progressive Field. They have a 4.72 ERA away from home.

The particular problem that has plagued Cleveland pitchers on the road is the base on balls. They have issued 118 walks on the road, 14 more that the next worst group, the Chicago White Sox.

Opposition hitters are only hitting .253 against the Tribe staff, the 5th best rate in the AL. But they have allowed 35 home runs, the 4th worst mark in the league. If you walk people and give up home runs, you are going to allow a lot of runs.

At home, the Tribe’s ERA is a respectable 4.15, which is 10th in the AL, but only .08 behind the Red Sox staff, which is in the middle of the pack. The walks are a problem at home too, though, allowing the 5th most in the Junior Circuit.

If you have figured out at this point that Cleveland pitchers are allowing too many batters to reach base via the walk, you are correct. Tribe pitchers are 3rd in the league overall, behind just Houston and Boston.

They’ve also allowed the 4th most dingers in the league, behind only Baltimore, Houston, and Toronto.

The home runs are equally spread out among the starters and relievers. The starters have given up 48 bombs, 5th worst in the league, while the relievers have allowed the 3rd highest total.

The bases on balls are the same ways. The starters have walked the 3rd most in the American League, the relievers rank 4th.

The one thing that doesn’t make this combination an unmitigated disaster is the Cleveland pitchers ability to strike people out, ranking behind just Detroit and Boston in that category.

In their recent losing streak, however, it is the starting pitching that is really letting the team down, allowing 2o runs in the first three innings, putting the team in a hole right off the bat.

So, while the starters’ ERA is 4.46, that figure has been accomplished because they have righted the ship after falling behind early and they have given Terry Francona around six innings per start.

In the Yankee series alone, all three starters (Justin Masterson, Scott Kazmir, and Corey Kluber) gave up big innings in the first three frames, but settled in and gave the skipper at least six innings, thus protecting the bullpen.

Earlier in the season, Indians’ pitchers were not walking as many batters, ranking in the middle of the pack, but as of late, that has changed and the extra base runners are lengthening innings, and helping set up three run home runs.

If the Indians are going to get going again, and as we said before the season started that this would be a streaky team, then the pitchers need to throw strikes, and they must pitch better on the road.

Until that happens, the Tribe will continue to struggle.