Tribe Infield Likely To Be Way Different in ’21

The Cleveland Indians had an everyday infield in 2020. Each game, either Terry Francona or Sandy Alomar Jr. wrote down the names of four switch-hitters to play the infield, most days batting them in the first four spots of the order: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Cesar Hernandez, and Carlos Santana.

In 2021, it appears only Ramirez will remain in the Cleveland lineup, another example of how different next year’s Tribe lineup will look different.

Obviously, the impending and likely deal of star shortstop Lindor will hopefully bring back a player or two who could fill at least one of these spots, but right now, here is who Tribe fans should be getting better acquainted with next spring.

First Base: The likely candidates, barring trades, would be Josh Naylor, Jake Bauers, and Bobby Bradley, all left-handed hitters, although we could see Santana brought back at a lower salary.

Right now, Naylor (who will be 24 next year) would be the front runner even though he had a 621 OPS between the Indians and the Padres in 2020. He did have a 719 OPS in 253 at bats with San Diego in ’19, and he makes more contact than the other two. His projected numbers in ’21 (according to Baseball-Reference.com) is 252 at bats, 8 HR, 31 RBI, .254 average, 730 OPS.

Bauers (25) spent all of the ’20 season at the satellite camp, and was a big disappointment in ’19 after coming over from Tampa Bay, hitting .226 with a 683 OPS. In the second half, he batted just .170. His projected numbers?: 210 at bats, .229, 727 OPS, 8 HR, 28 ribbies.

Bradley (also 25) also didn’t see a big league at bat in 2020, and his problem has been contact, striking out 153 times at AAA in ’19, and 20 times in 49 plate appearances with the Indians. The organization seems to have soured on him after that big league stint. His projection?: 182 at bats, .236, 735 OPS, 7 HR, 24 RBI.

Second base: Gold Glove winner Hernandez is likely gone, and the primary replacements would seem to be Yu Chang or Owen Miller, who came over in the Mike Clevinger deal in August.

Chang (25 next year) feels like he has been around forever, and has some pop, but has had contact issues, his strikeouts are more than double his walk totals in his minor league career, and he has just a .251 batting average in the minor leagues. He’s also a candidate at shortstop, depending on the return for Lindor. His projection for 2021 is 189 at bats, .233 average, 702 OPS, 6 HR, 24 RBI.

Miller’s (24) numbers in the minors are impressive. He’s a career .307 batter (808 OPS) and has never struck out more than 86 times in a season. The only issue here is he’s never played above the AA level.

He’s been mostly a SS in his professional career, but has spent time at 2B too. He doesn’t have a big league projection for 2021, but he’s definitely a player to keep an eye on when spring training starts.

Shortstop: Chang and Miller figure into the mix here as well, along with two younger dark horse candidates, and presumably whoever the Indians get back in a Lindor deal.

The two younger players are Gabriel Arias (21 next year) who came over in the Clevinger deal. He hit .302 in Class A in 2019, but hasn’t played at a higher level as of yet. He’s a right-handed hitter, but has had contact issues thus far in his minor league career.

The other is top prospect Tyler Freeman, who will turn 22 in ’21. He also hasn’t played above the high A level, and is a .319 lifetime hitter in professional ball (.379 OBP). He’s been a doubles machine in the minors.

It’s hard to imagine the Tribe going with either of the latter two, as we are sure they would like to see both at a higher level of the minors.

Again, we believe the return for Lindor will have an impact on the infield, because his immediate replacement may be part of the return in the trade. And the front office will be looking for less expensive free agents as a one year stop gap as well.

Fans thought the outfield was unsettled in 2020. They may be looking at 2/3rds of a lineup being that way this upcoming season.

Cold Reality Of Winter To Start For Tribe Fans Soon.

Ever since the Cleveland Indians lost their best of three series in the Wild Card round of the American League playoffs, the organization has been sending a depressing message surrounding the financial state of the franchise.

Be it from the year end press conference with team president Chris Antonetti or the weekly messages sent through the media about the off-season, the front office is making it very well known another reduction in the payroll is coming for the Tribe.

We understand that Major League Baseball teams all lost revenue due to the shortened season and without ticket sales. That is indisputable. What we don’t know is how many teams have been pounding this message to their fan base.

Ticket sales were lost as well as concessions and parking dollars, but keep in mind the Indians paid approximately $70 million less in salaries, and with the schedule kept within the Central Divisions of both leagues, travel expenses were also reduced greatly.

We have said this before, but we wonder how much spending will be down around the sport this winter. It could be tough for some average players, and there could be more players non-tendered rather than offering them arbitration, but our guess is there will be teams trying to make a splash in the free agent and trade market.

None of those teams, by the way, have a World Series title drought equal to the now 73 years without a title that Cleveland has.

What is particularly distressing about this talk by the organization is the success the franchise has enjoyed since Terry Francona became manager in 2013, and the record the Tribe has put together since 2016.

After making the World Series that season, Cleveland has won at least 91 games in every full season, and has made the post-season in four of the last five campaigns. The year they missed out? They won 93 ballgames.

You might think that since the Indians have been in contention for a long period of time, this is a club starting to show some age. However, of the top ten players in WAR on the 2020 Indians, only four are over 30 years old, and three of those players, Cesar Hernandez, Brad Hand, and Carlos Santana, are either free agents and/or have a club option for 2021.

The fourth player is pitcher Carlos Carrasco, who recently has been mentioned in trade rumors.

We should also mention that of this quartet, only Santana will play the 2021 season at over 35 years old. Hernandez and Hand will be just 31.

The other players who are in the top ten in WAR for 2020 (ages in parenthesis)? Shane Bieber (26), Jose Ramirez (28), Zach Plesac (26), Francisco Lindor (27), Tristan McKenzie (23), and James Karinchak (25).

It would seem this group could be the basis of a contending team for quite a few more years. Instead of adding to the group and bolstering the team to get into the playoffs, we hear about payroll reduction and the probable trade of one its best position players (Lindor) and a long time veteran starting pitcher who is still among the game’s best (Carrasco).

Somehow, Indians’ fans are very accepting of this, and we don’t know why. Perhaps young fans have more patience with the process, because, frankly, they can wait 10 years for a title.

With Tampa Bay in the World Series, we have heard fans justifying the cut in spending on players, but who knows when the Rays will get back. Tribe fans thought the Indians would be back soon after 2016, but we are still waiting.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have been in three of the last four Fall Classics. The Red Sox have won four World Series since the turn of the century. The tried and true way of winning in baseball is accumulating very good players and hold on to them, which Cleveland organization can do, if they so desire.

It may be a cold, angry, and depressing winter for fans of the Cleveland Indians if the payroll will be slashed again. That’s nothing to look forward to.

Biggest Factor For Tribe? Games Aren’t In The Bronx

Tomorrow night, the Indians start the new “Wild Card” round of the American League playoffs, necessitated this year (we hope only this year) by the shortened regular season.

Because of the regional schedule for the year, Tribe fans haven’t seen the Yankees this season, and vice versa. This we do know, New York had a 33-27 record this season, going 22-9 at Yankee Stadium and 11-18 on the road.

By the way, all three games of the series will be played in Cleveland at Progressive Field.

Because the Yankees get on national television more than most teams, certainly more than the Indians, baseball fans know the names: Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, D.J. LeMahieu, and Gary Sanchez.

And they signed Garrit Cole, who won 20 games with the Astros last season, helping to pitch them to the AL pennant.

Their closer is Aroldis Chapman, who Tribe fans remember very well from the 2016 World Series.

However, in looking at the statistics for the Yankees this season, it has a Jekyll and Hyde feel to them.

You see, in the Bronx, the pinstripers have a team batting average of .273 with 67 home runs as a team, and a 907 OPS.

As a comparison, the Indians team statistics for the entire season has them with a .228 batting average, 59 home runs, and an OPS of 689. That’s for both home and road games.

LeMahieu, the AL batting champion, batted .448 at Yankee Stadium with eight home runs. Luke Voit, who led the Junior Circuit in long balls, swatted 16 at home. Four other Yanks hit six dingers in the Bronx, meanwhile the Tribe had four players who hit more that a half dozen for the entire season.

However, away from the famous short porch in right field, New York has at least according to the numbers been a far different team.

On the road, the Bronx Bombers have a .220 batting average with only 27 home runs, and a 668 OPS. They hit like Cleveland did all season long away from the House That Derek Jeter Built.

LeMahieu, who is a great hitter (we wanted the Indians to sign him when he was a free agent), batted .283 on the road, but had just two dingers. Voit, who had 22 homers for the season, hit just six away from the Bronx.

Stanton (14 for 49, 3 HR) and old friend Gio Urshela (21 for 65, 12 RBI) were the most productive New York bats away from home this season.

What is odd is the Yankee pitching splits at home and on the road. NY pitchers had a 3.87 ERA in the Big Apple, with Cole having a 2.09 mark, winning four games. Masahiro Tanaka, the game two starter won three at home, but with a 4.40 ERA.

The weird stat is they had a 4.88 ERA on the road. We understand their road games were at hitter friendly parks like Fenway Park, Oriole Park at Camden Yards, and Sahlens Field in Buffalo, where the Blue Jays played their home games, and it was very much a pitcher’s nightmare.

Tanaka pitched well on the road (2.33 ERA) which isn’t good news for Wednesday night’s contest.

As for the Tribe, they hit .233 at home (compared to .222 on the road), but hit 34 of their 59 home runs on the road.

Jose Ramirez (who else?) was the best hitter at Progressive Field, hitting .317 with 19 extra base hits. Cesar Hernandez hit .313 at his new home park, and Carlos Santana belted five of his eight homers in Cleveland.

The Indians’ pitchers had a 3.67 ERA at home vs. 2.90 away from Progressive Field. It didn’t matter for game one starter Shane Bieber, the likely AL Cy Young Award winner, who had 1.23 ERA and struck out 44 hitters in 22 innings at home.

Game 2 starter Carlos Carrasco had a 3.03 ERA, and Game 3 hurler Zach Plesac is at 2.08 along the shores of Lake Erie.

What does all of this mean? Not much, because it’s baseball, and a three game series doesn’t really determine a lot. However, ignore the names wearing the New York uniforms. They are television personalities because the networks want the Yankees.

The numbers show the Indians can compete and win the series if (and that’s a huge if) their beleaguered offense can cobble up some runs. That’s the biggest question of the week for the Tribe.

The Ugly Offensive Numbers For The Tribe

The Kansas City Royals have 63 extra base hits on the season, an average of more than three per game. And they rank only ninth in the American League in runs scored per game.

The top three teams in scoring in the AL are as follows–

Houston      5.18 runs          59 XBH
New York    5.18 runs          51 XBH
Detroit         5.13 runs          48 XBH

On the other end of the spectrum are the Cleveland Indians, who rank 14th in the league (second to last) in runs at 3.33, and have just 30 hits that weren’t singles.

We are now 18 games into the season, and only four Indians have more than two extra base hits on the season. They are–

Jose Ramirez 7
Francisco Lindor 6
Cesar Hernandez 5
Franmil Reyes 5

What is even worse is there are only two other players (Carlos Santana and Domingo Santana) who have two.

Cleveland ranks dead last in the AL in slugging percentage at .294. To give you an idea of how low that is, last season the Tigers had the least powerful offense in the Junior Circuit. They slugged .388.

Thankfully, the Tribe ranks 3rd in the league in walks, led by Carlos Santana who has taken a free pass 24 times, seven more than anyone else in the AL.

The downside to that is the Indians are below the dreaded “Mendoza line” as a team, with a batting average of .195. So, even with all the walks, the Tribe has an on base percentage of .303, 11th in the circuit.

You might think with all the walks, maybe Terry Francona’s squad is playing “small ball”, making up for a lack of pop by moving runners, stealing bases, etc.

Nope, Cleveland has stolen just two bases on the season and have actually been caught three times. They have one sacrifice bunt (we know, that makes people happy) and they also have just one sacrifice fly, ahead of only Boston, who have none.

Basically, when it comes to offense, the Indians aren’t doing much right.

They’ve scored 62 runs on the season, and 22 of those came in two games, the third game of the season vs. KC (9) and the last game of the Cincinnati set at Progressive Field when they exploded for 13 tallies.

In the other 17 games this season, the Tribe has crossed the plate just 40 times, for a 2.4 per game average.

Looking at that number, it’s really a miracle they a game above .500 at 10-9.

(By the way, that miracle is the work of their pitching staff)

Their catchers are a combined 4 for 61 (.066) with no homers and just one run batted in (a bases loaded walk to Beau Taylor), with seven walks and 23 strikeouts.

That’s pretty bad, but the outfielders (and we aren’t counting Reyes here because he’s mostly DH’d) are hitting just .135 with 3 HR and 12 RBI. They’ve mixed in 21 walks, but have 58 strikeouts in 170 at bats, which for the mathematically challenged is more than once every three times at the dish.

Those numbers don’t include Mike Freeman’s two hits on Sunday night against the White Sox, so if you wonder why he may start receiving more playing time, look at the previous paragraph.

Tyler Naquin was activated prior to the Cubs series, and while he isn’t exactly Babe Ruth, he may seem that way compared to those ugly numbers.

It is getting to the point that the organization has to find someone who can hit. We are getting to the point where we are close to the 1/6th pole in a normal major league schedule.

Unfortunately, the only real alternative that hasn’t been used within the organization that hasn’t been used is Jake Bauers. Could he be the next man up?

Tribe Needs Consistency From Top Of The Order.

There is one word missing when describing the offense of the Cleveland Indians so far this season.

No, the word isn’t runs, although we could have used that. The real word we are talking about is consistency.

Just looking at the last three days, you can see what we are talking about. Thursday night, they lambasted the Reds, 13-0. That was followed by Cleveland being shutout by the White Sox, 2-0, and yesterday, they put seven up on the board in win over the Pale Hose.

Because baseball is a sport played pretty much on a daily basis, it is a sport where consistency is a must.

The Indians just haven’t gotten that, particularly from the top five men in the order, the players who figured to carry the burden of the offense this season, save for new 2B, Cesar Hernandez.

While Jose Ramirez has been the Tribe’s best hitter, Hernandez has been the most consistent.

The former Phillie has had a hit in all but three games in this young season, and in the games he hasn’t had a hit, he reached base via the walk. Quite frankly, he has done everything Terry Francona hoped for when he decided to lead him off.

In nine of the 15 games he’s played, he’s reached twice. So, he has certainly set the table for Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, and Franmil Reyes.

Ramirez leads the club in hits, home runs, RBIs, and OPS, but 10 of his 17 hits have come in three games, his homers have come in two games, and eight of his 11 ribbies have occurred in the same two games.

He recently went through an 0 for 15 on the last trip to Minnesota and Cincinnati.

Lindor had a two hit game in the 7-1 victory over Chicago, but it was only his third two hit game of the season. He’s walked just three times this season (once intentionally), and has only been on base more than once in a contest five times.

After striking out nine times in the first seven games, he has fanned just four times in the last nine. Hopefully, that a good sign for things to come.

Carlos Santana had two hits in each game of the doubleheader sweep at home against Chicago on July 28th, but has had just four hits since, and none have been home runs.

The good sign for him? Is there is such a thing as a walk tear, Santana is on one. He’s taken a free ride nine times in the last three games, and 13 times in the last seven games. He isn’t getting good pitches to hit, so he’s being very patient, which is way better than chasing and making outs.

Not a surprise, he leads the AL in walks this season with 20.

Reyes has perhaps struggled the most. Until his game winning HR Tuesday night in Cincinnati, he had just one extra base hit, and that was a groundball that eluded two Minnesota defenders and he hustled into second on what should have been a 6-3 or 4-3 putout.

He’s put together three straight two hit games, the first Indian that can say that this season. It would be nice if he could take a few more walks, but the Tribe needs Reyes to provide some pop, and two dingers this week were a sight for sore eyes.

When Cleveland gets something from the 6-9 spots in the order, they can score, but you can probably say that for most teams.

Tribe catchers are 3 for 51 on the season with no extra base hits and just one RBI.

Yesterday, Domingo Santana and Jordan Luplow joined Bradley Zimmer as the only outfielders to hit a home run.

While it would be nice for those spots in the order to get going, more consistent production is needed from the top five in the batting order. Hernandez has gotten the job done, now the next four hitters have to do the same.

Winning A Series Is Always A Good Thing For Tribe

While we are all happy that baseball has returned, even in a shortened 60 game season, three games is still the definition of a small sample size.

That said, it is always better to win than lose, and winning a series is a good thing, and the Cleveland Indians did just that, taking two out of three against the Kansas City Royals.

The Tribe’s starting rotation got superlative grades in the opening series, but you have to remember no one has the Royals even making the expanded playoffs, let alone the regular post-season, so it will be interesting to see how Cleveland does against the high potent offenses of the White Sox and Twins this week.

The Indians’ pitching recorded 40 strikeouts in the series, the most in the AL, and walked just five KC batters, the least in the AL. Of the teams coming up on the schedule, Chicago ranks 4th in the junior circuit in fanning, 29 times, while the Twins are in the lower half, with just 21 punchouts.

A majority of the strikeouts by Sox hitters came against the Minnesota bullpen, so we wonder how Aaron Civale, Adam Plutko, and Zach Plesac will fare against a group of mostly young, aggressive hitters for the Pale Hose.

So, we will use restraint on the pitching side of things for the Tribe. The Royals have some good hitters, but there was a lot of swing and miss on breaking stuff in the series, and will that continue against better hitters, or will they make the Indians’ pitchers get into the strike zone more often.

We have heard consternation about Francisco Lindor’s start to the season, but again, it’s just three games. The star shortstop looks a tad anxious at the plate, especially on breaking balls, but we are confident he will make the adjustment and be fine.

Lindor struggled with runners in scoring position last season, and we feel he wants to succeed so bad that he doesn’t put the pressure on the pitching staff.

On the other hand, the only Tribe starter who is still hitless has been patient at the dish, although that’s hardly a shock. Carlos Santana is off to an 0 for 8 start, but has drawn four walks with just one strikeout.

The new leadoff hitter, Cesar Hernandez, looks impressive in person. The switch-hitter has drawn just one walk, but has made opposing pitchers work, and looks to hit the ball where it is pitched. His double down the left field line in the Opener was a beautiful display of hitting.

And catcher Roberto Perez has shown way he received the Defensive Player of the Year Award in 2019. He threw out two would be base stealers in the series, and blocked umpteen pitches in the dirt. He even went from first to third on a single to centerfield.

Terry Francona has got all of his position players in a game so far, and the only four on the roster who haven’t been in are starters Civale and Plesac, and relievers Phil Maton and Adam Plutko. The skipper likes to get everyone in as soon as possible, and he will likely get the bullpen guys an inning against Chicago.

By the way, the bullpen performed well in the first series, although in each game, no one was brought in during an inning. Everyone was used after the starters went at least six innings, and each started with a clean inning.

We know that will not always be the case.

We will have a better view of the 2020 edition of the Indians following these next two series, against the teams who figured to battle Cleveland for the AL Central lead.

The Switch Hitting Infield Of The Tribe

There is no question that Cleveland Indians’ manager Terry Francona loves flexibility. He loves relievers who can pitch to both right-handed and left-handed hitters, and he uses the platoon advantage more than any other skipper in the game.

Even though he is the best in the sport at that, we believe he loves switch-hitters because then he doesn’t have to worry about it.

The infield he will manage this season has that trait covered. They all can hit from both sides of the plate.

With the signing of Cesar Hernandez in the off-season to man second base, most nights, Tito will pencil in the four switch-hitters at the four infield positions–

1B: Carlos Santana
2B: Hernandez
SS: Francisco Lindor
3B: Jose Ramirez

The left side of the infield features two of perhaps the 20 best players in the game in Lindor and Ramirez. The shortstop is well regarded as one of the best five in baseball, and let’s not forget that Ramirez has two top three MVP finishes in the last three seasons.

Lindor, who won’t turn 27 until after the 2020 season (if there is one), is pretty even from both sides of the plate, having a 857 career OPS from the right side and a 832 OPS from the left side.

His slugging percentage is virtually the same from either side, but he’s a bit more patient hitting right handed. He does hit more home runs from the left side though.

Ramirez, who turns 28 in September, is more lethal from the left side of the plate (career 850 OPS), but is still very good from the right side (808). He also hits for a better average from the right side, but his slugging percentage from the left side is .494, 27 points higher than when he is facing southpaws.

The two superstars are also equally effective at home or on the road, but slightly better at Progressive Field.

Santana, the eldest of the group at 34, is actually a better hitter right-handed, which is odd because you think of most of his big hits as an Indian has come from the left side.

The first baseman has a 834 lifetime OPS from the right side, mostly due to a .277 batting average, which is 40 points higher than from the left side. And he’s even more of an on base machine against lefties, .382 OBP vs. .360 vs. right-handers.

To us, he has always looked like he had a shorter swing hitting right-handed.

His batting average and OPS against RHP did improve last season, but he still was more effective against lefties.

The newcomer, Hernandez, just turned 30 a week ago, and he fits in with the others in that he is very similar from both sides of the dish, 736 career OPS vs. righties and 726 vs. left-handers.

His ability to get on base is the same from both sides, but his numbers show he has a little more pop (.385 slugging vs. .372) hitting from the left side.

The primary back up for Francona would figure to be Mike Freeman, a left-handed hitter who did a solid job for Cleveland last season, hitting .277 with a .362 on base percentage.

With the extra players expected to be on the roster for this season, we would bet right-handed hitting Christian Arroyo will be eligible for most games. Once a top 100 prospect, Arroyo has been hampered by injuries and has accumulated just 228 big league at bats. Still, he’s just 25 years old.

Yu Chang and rookie Nolan Jones, the Tribe’s top prospect, will also likely be on the traveling party this season.

With three all-stars, the Cleveland infield should be among the best in the game. That is, if there is a baseball season at all.

Simulated Tribe Off To Good Starts

These are different times we live in, particularly without the sport which symbolizes the beginning of spring and summer, baseball.

With no real games going on, we are curious each and every day to see what is going on in a couple of sites running simulated seasons. We understand it is not real, so readers should have no concern about our sanity.

The two simulated games we are following are at Baseball Reference.com, which uses Out of the Park Baseball 21, and the game we grew up with, Strat O Matic, which shows results online daily.

Both simulations have the Cleveland Indians off to good starts, perhaps because the early schedule would’ve had a lot of games with the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox, although the latter is supposed to be much improved this season.

Baseball Reference. This site has the Indians getting off to a 5-4 start through April 4th, a game and a half game behind the White Sox, who did sweep the Tribe in a three game set at Progressive Field earlier in the week.

The Indians have taken all five games from the Tigers thus far.

Franmil Reyes is off to a great start, going 11 for 30 with five home runs and eight runs batted in. Newcomer Cesar Hernandez is also doing well, tied for second on the team in RBIs with seven.

This game surprisingly has Greg Allen getting the bulk of the time in the outfield, going 8 for 28. Carlos Santana is 13 for 31, and Francisco Lindor is 12 for 38 with 4 HR.

On the negative side, Jose Ramirez is off to a slow start (4 for 35), as are Oscar Mercado (3 for 24) and Roberto Perez (5 for 29 with 14 strikeouts).

Pitching wise, Zach Plesac is 2-0 with 4.50 ERA, while Shane Bieber has a 3.00 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 15 innings.

The simulation does not include Mike Clevinger or Carlos Carrasco, instead rookie Scott Moss made the big club to open the season.

Also, Sandy Leon is not on the big league roster, and weirdly, John Axford is, apparently acquired in a trade with Toronto.

Strat O Matic Their simulation has the Indians off to a 8-1 start, a game ahead of the Royals, who started off 6-1. FYI, the Twins have started at 3-6 to date.

They have Jefry Rodriguez in the rotation, and the righty has been very good, going 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two starts. Zach Plesac is also 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 18 strikeouts.

Reyes has started hot in this simulation too, belting six dingers and knocking in 13 in the first eight games of the season.

Domingo Santana is batting .417 and Carlos Santana is at .375 with 7 doubles on the season.

They have Jose Ramirez at .303 through eight games, while Lindor is off to a slow start, batting just .211.

Brad Hand blew two saves in the Chicago series, but the Indians rallied to win both contests, one on a Reyes walk off shot in the bottom of the ninth.

They have used a platoon of Jake Bauers and Jordan Luplow in RF, with Delino DeShields getting a couple of starts in center.

This game also does not have Clevinger or Carrasco available, and Cam Hill made the Opening Day roster. In fact, they already had Terry Francona using a bullpen day in game #5, using Hunter Wood as the starter.

Without actual games, this is making the best of the situation. And happily, the Indians are off to a good start in both simulations.

Let’s hope we see some baseball on the field for real soon.

Stay safe and stay healthy.

Tribe Keys To A Fast Start.

If the Cleveland Indians want to return to the post-season in 2020, they obviously have to make up ground on last season’s division champion, Minnesota Twins.

Either the Tribe needs to decrease the 170 runs scored gap between them and the Twins or they need to widen the .44 divide in ERA. Doing both would be optimal.

Last season (according to WAR), the three worst spots for the Indians were second base, DH, and centerfield.

With that said, here are the players we consider to be the keys for the 2020 Tribe–

Cesar Hernandez. The switch-hitting former Phillie is replacing long time second baseman, Jason Kipnis. The Cleveland front office is hoping that last season was a blip on the radar in terms of the soon to be 30 year old’s ability to get on base.

From 2016-18, Hernandez’ lowest on base percentage was .356. He walked 95 times in ’18. He also tailed off in the second half a year ago, with a 759 OPS before the All Star Game, and 720 after.

Last year, Kipnis had a .304 on base percentage, and Cleveland is hoping that Hernandez can take some walks and move the offense along.

Oscar Mercado had a .318 OBP hitting mostly in the #2 hole in ’19. If Hernandez can get on base at his career mark (.352), he could fit in nicely in that spot and give more opportunities for the middle of the order to drive him in.

Domingo Santana/Franmil Reyes. To put it nicely, one of the reasons the Indians traded for Reyes at the deadline in July was the production of their DH’s were atrocious, and LF wasn’t much better.

If Santana can hit like he did in the first half (.286, 18 HR, 63 RBI, .850 OPS), then all of a sudden the Indians have two power bats in their lineup, and when you add in Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, and Jose Ramirez, it gives them five guys with 25+ home run power.

Last year, Minnesota had five players with 30 or more blasts.

Defensively, it could be a challenge putting one of these guys out there on a regular basis, but Terry Francona could replace them if he has a lead late in the contest.

Oscar Mercado. Cleveland’s WAR in CF was low in part due to Leonys Martin’s dreadful performance before he was released, but they need Mercado to improve upon his rookie season.

The 25 year old was pretty steady (755 OPS in the first half, 765 in the second) in his rookie year, but an improvement in his .318 on base percentage would help him be a better offensive threat.

He could wind up hitting lower in the order if the skipper determines he would rather have Hernandez’ ability to get on at the top of the order.

Bullpen Heat. Francona and pitching coach Carl Willis got better results than could have been expected from a relief corp without many hard throwers, particularly after Brad Hand developed a tired arm.

Everyone, from the fans to the front office, are banking on the impact and development of young flame throwers Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak to help shorten games.

That put less stress on the starting pitching, which is also young, at least to start the season.

Our guess is Francona will want to start them slowly, but may not be able to.

The Tribe needs to get off to a faster start than a year ago, and shortening games with the two new toys will help.

Remember, the Twins won the Central because they had an 11-1/2 game lead on June 2nd, due to them being 29-30. From then on, Cleveland went 64-33, and played at a pace that was three games better than Minnesota, and that’s with the Tribe losing their last five.

These players could be the key, along with a healthy Lindor, to getting off to that good start.

Is The Tribe Still A Contender? You Bet!

Anyone who thinks the Minnesota Twins are going to sit on their laurels after winning the American Central Division in 2019 will probably be sadly mistaken.

The Twins seem determined to defend their title after signing one of the best free agents available in former MVP Josh Donaldson, ranked 5th best on MLBTradeRumors.com.

Minnesota scored the second most runs in the American League a year ago, and they just added another superior hitter to their lineup.

The Chicago White Sox have been very active in the free agent market this off-season, most notably signing Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion, and southpaw Dallas Keuchel, leading many to believe it will be a three team race in the AL Central.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians have signed 2B Cesar Hernandez.

If you look at offense, the Twins scored 170 more runs than the Indians, and the Tribe scored 61 more than the Pale Hose. Even adding Grandal and Encarnacion, that’s a tough number to catch.

While it seems unreachable for the Indians to catch up to Minnesota in runs scored, one path to closing the gap would be a complete season by Jose Ramirez, and a better season from Francisco Lindor.

Ramirez wound up with a solid season in ’19 (.255, 23 HR, 83 RBI, 806 OPS), but compared to his 2017 and 2018 campaigns (957 OPS in ’17 and 939 in ’18) it pales. A return to those previous two years (he is only 27) would greatly improve the Cleveland attack.

On the other hand, the Indians can’t expect the same season out of 34-year-old Carlos Santana, who had the best season of the year (911 OPS). By the same token, Minnesota’s best hitter, Nelson Cruz, will be 39 in 2020.

Chicago’s free agent hitters are 32 (Grandal) and 37 years old (Encarnacion), so neither should be expected to do better than a year ago. Where the Sox should gain is with three young, impact bats in Yoan Moncada (25), Eloy Jimenez (23), and Luis Robert (22).

The Indians’ edge is in the pitching department, allowing almost .6 runs per game less than the Twins, and 1.11 less than Chicago.

Certainly, the continued development of Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac will be key to maintaining that edge, as well as a retooled bullpen.

It would seem the Indians still have the best pitching in the division. Minnesota replaced Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez with Homer Bailey and Rich Hill, and the White Sox figure to be better, but lowering by more than a full run?

Based on run differential, the difference between the Indians and Twins was only four games, Minnesota had the profile of a team winning 97 games (they won 101), while Cleveland should have won 93 contests, which they did.

So, the gap isn’t as large as you think it is.

The White Sox won 69 games, so even with a roster upgrade and the further development of some very good looking young players, that’s still an awful big number to make up.

We would think the White Sox will still be a factor in the race, but not quite ready to compete with the Twins and Indians.

That’s why the Indians should still be looking to add a bat, particularly an outfielder. They shouldn’t be thinking the way to go is unproven hitters like Greg Allen, Delino DeShields, Bradley Zimmer, and Daniel Johnson.

The Cleveland pitching gives it a solid chance to return to the post-season in 2020.