Is ’13 Tribe’s Success Sustainable?

The cynical Indians fans among us will say it’s the same ol’, same ol’ for this year’s Tribe.

They have hit the season’s quarter pole at 24-17, on a pace to win over 90 games under new manager Terry Francona. However, last year they were 23-18 at this point, but finished the season 68-94 and in fourth place.

In 2011, they were 26-15 after 41 games, and actually got to 30-15 before falling apart and finishing 80-82. They went a combined 21-32 in June and July, reminiscent of the June swoons of the late 60’s and 70’s.

So why is this year any different? Let’s take a look at the make up of those two teams.

Here are the regular players on that 2011 edition of the Indians. The regular 2B was Orlando Cabrera, who contributed a few big hits early, but by June he couldn’t hit to save his life and was traded to the Giants before the end of July.

The 3B was Jack Hannahan, a whipping boy for this blog. He’s an excellent defender, but simply cannot hit.

Then manager Manny Acta was also the recipient of what may be the last gasp of Grady Sizemore’s career. That April, Sizemore hit .378 with 4 HR and 9 RBIs. The rest of the year, he hit .193, and hasn’t been in a big league since.

As for the pitching, Justin Masterson went 5-0 in April and had his best season overall, but because of a lack of run support, he was 5-6 by the end of June. They also had Carlos Carrasco emerging, as he was 8-6 with a 4.21 ERA at the end of June. Josh Tomlin also proved to be a solid starter.

In 2012, some of the regular players were 1B Casey Kotchman, Hannahan, and left field was a mishmosh of Johnny Damon, Shelley Duncan, and Ezequiel Carrera, none of whom are currently in the major leagues. It is no wonder that the Indians finished 13th in the AL in runs scored.

Masterson was having a mediocre campaign, and the good start early was fueled by veteran Derek Lowe, who was 6-3 through the end of May. And the bullpen was outstanding before running out of gas from overwork.

The Cleveland pitching staff ranked last in the American League in ERA.

This year, Francona has a lineup that can score runs, ranking 4th in the league in runs scored. Whereas the past few years, the Indians had to put out a squad that had three or four players who really weren’t a threat with a bat in their hands, in 2013, the skipper has used lineup where Michael Brantley has batted eighth.

Last year, the left fielder spent most of his time hitting in the #5 hole.

Instead of Kotchman, Orlando Cabrera, and Hannahan, this year’s team has Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and Mark Reynolds.

The starting pitching is still a question mark, but Masterson looks to be the same guy he was in ’11, having a solid year, and Zack McAllister provides solid outings pretty much every time he goes out there.

The wild cards have been Ubaldo Jimenez, who has put together four straight solid outing (although it would be better if he could work longer) and Scott Kazmir, who looks closer to the former all-star he was than the guy who pitched in the independent league last season.

As for the bullpen, Francona seems to have made it a crusade to keep his relievers rested, so they will be strong all year. And because the offense has provided some blowouts, he can afford to be judicious in using Joe Smith, Vinnie Pestano, and Chris Perez.

This isn’t to say the Indians will cruise into the post-season for the first time since 2007, but don’t confuse this team with those of the past two years. There’s much more talent in 2013.

Tribe Front Office Can’t Rest Yet

Compared to the recent past off-seasons, the Cleveland Indians have been extremely busy this winter, but they can’t stop there.

There are still a couple of holes to fill if the Tribe wants to contend for an AL Central Division title in 2013.

They still need one more bat and one more starting pitcher.

The hitter is needed because although the lineup is improved from last year by signing Mark Reynolds to replace Casey Kotchman, and getting Drew Stubbs to take the place of the hodge-podge of people who played in leftfield a year ago.

Still, both of those guys aren’t the most stable options in the world and would only be viewed as an upgrade in Cleveland. Also, keep in mind the Indians need a DH as well.

Reynolds has averaged 33 home runs a year in his five full seasons in the major leagues, but his total dropped off by 14 last year (37 to 23), although he played in 20 last games.

Add in the fact that he strikes out excessively and he’s hit over .250 only twice in six big league seasons, and the front office should recognize that there is a possibility that Reynolds could hit .220 with 20 HRs this season.

While that would be better than Kotchman, it would still rank near the bottom in terms of production among all AL first basemen.

As for Stubbs, had GM Chris Antonetti acquired him after the 2010 season, it would be viewed much more favorably. That year, Stubbs hit .255 with 22 HR, 77 RBI and a 773 OPS. At age 25, the hope was he would be improving on those numbers as he approached his prime.

However, the outfielder’s number have declined since then, dropping to a .213 average with 14 HR, 40 RBI, and a 610 OPS.

The question has to be whether or not Stubbs can reverse his career in Cleveland, although he will do so in a less favorable hitters’ park than the one in Cincinnati.

So Antonetti should be working on some contingency plans at both spots as well as finding a DH. It doesn’t make anyone warm and fuzzy than the possibilities is replacing Reynolds with Lou Marson, moving Carlos Santana to first base, or moving Nick Swisher to first and playing someone like Tim Fedroff in RF.

As for Stubbs, you would be looking at someone such as Ezequiel Carrera replacing him in the batting order.

On the mound, we would all feel more comfortable if the starting rotation still wasn’t relying on Ubaldo Jimenez.

Right now, Jimenez is slotting in the #2 or #3 spot along with Justin Masterson and Brett Myers, with Carlos Carrasco, Zack McAllister, and Trevor Bauer among others competing for the last two spots to open the season.

The way Jimenez pitched since coming to Cleveland, it would be better if Antonetti picked up another reliable starting pitcher, sliding the inconsistent right-hander to the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation.

Perhaps new pitching coach Mickey Calloway and Terry Francona can straighten out Jimenez’ seemingly horrible mechanics and get him to be more consistent. Until proof of that exists, you have to assume that the righty will continue to be up and down more than an elevator.

The Indians have to have better than that from a top of the rotation starter if they want to contend. If Ubaldo is in the #4 or #5 slot and he doesn’t pitch effectively, it’s not a huge problem. Right now the Tribe is too dependent on Jimenez for their success.

It is doubtful that Antonetti is sitting on what he has done this off-season, still it would be nice to do something before spring training convenes in a month, rather than during the exhibition season when the price could be higher.

Time to Evaluate the Tribe (Part 1)

The Indians are spending the month of September playing the role of spoiler and evaluating some of the players they have added to the roster for the last month of the season.

However, everyone has seen enough of the players who have been here for a while, so we can start rating those players right now.

First, the infielders…

People who read this blog on a regular basis know we felt the signing of Casey Kotchman was a bad idea. Yes, he’s a great glove man at first base, but he’s not a good hitter. Last year’s .300 batting average with Tampa was an aberration.

Kotchman will not be back next season.

2B Jason Kipnis is a keeper, but he’s not having as good of a season as people may think.

The average OPS in the American League is 732, and four Indians with over 300 at bats have figures higher than average. Kipnis isn’t one of them.

As the season went on, Kipnis stopped driving the baseball, so he’s become a singles hitter. That’s fine, but he should be doing better than that. Since this is his first full season in the big leagues, we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, but he needs to improve in 2013.

At shortstop, Asdrubal Cabrera made the All-Star team for the second consecutive year. However, he’s faded in each of the last two seasons, and apparently needs to stay in better shape. His defense has slipped as well.

Several people have talked about dealing Cabrera, but the Tribe has no one in the wings to replace him. Cabrera would seem to benefit from a manager who is more demanding of him. He should be at short on Opening Day 2013.

As for Jack Hannahan, apparently the Indians front office thought his career year in 2011 would be the norm going forward, which was not the case.

This is another spot where the Tribe needs an upgrade, and Lonnie Chisenhall should be the ’13 Cleveland starting 3B barring a spring training in which he hits .050 or he gets hurt.

As for the reserves, the season began with Jason Donald being the utility infielder. It is hard to judge him offensively because of inconsistent at bats, which comes with the job. He seems to hit left-handers, but looks to have a big swing.

Defensively, he’s not the answer. He has developed the “yips” with his throwing and the front office started looking at him as a super sub, being able to play both infield and outfield.

His best position looks like 2B, a problem because of Kipnis at the big league level and Cord Phelps at AAA.

Brent Lillibridge has done okay since coming over from Boston, and his ability to play all four infield spots could give him the job going into next season.

As for Phelps, he should get a good look in September to determine if he can play everyday somewhere on the field or be used as trade bait over the off-season.

Phelps had his second straight OPS over 800 at Columbus, so he can hit, and he’s only had 80 big league at bats.

At first base, it would have been nice to see Russ Canzler and/or Matt LaPorta get regular at bats throughout August and September to see if they can be part of the solution at first base.

We will look at the outfield and catching spots as well as the pitching staff later this month.

As for the infield, trying to replace half of your starters is never a good thing. However, the front office didn’t realize the options put in place weren’t going to work going into 2012.

The Tribe Shouldn’t Sell Right Now

After losing the first three games of a four game set against the Baltimore Orioles, the rats are jumped off the S.S. Tribe very, very quickly.

There are people even saying that perhaps the Indians should now be sellers at the July 31st trading deadline instead of trying to improve the team.

As horrible as the Indians have looked since the All-Star break, and they have been bad, especially on offense scoring just 31 runs in 10 games with 19 of those occurring in two contests, they remain just 4-1/2 games out of first in the AL Central Division, and a mere 3-1/2 games off the pace for the second wild card spot.

A few people have mentioned how many teams the Indians would have to climb over to get the latter spot, but that would only hold water if there were a couple of weeks remaining in the season. However, there are more than 60 games remaining, more than enough time to pass a number of teams.

That’s why GM Chris Antonetti cannot start trading his most marketable people in the next eight days. In fact, he still should be looking to help the current roster, because it is obvious the Indians cannot make gains in the standings with its current personnel.

While everyone wants the team to make a huge splash, dealing for an all-star type player, that may not be necessary. Improving the roster could involve cutting bait on players who haven’t been productive for the Tribe from day one.

That would mean finding replacements for the deadwood currently on the team, guys like Casey Kotchman, Aaron Cunningham, Jack Hannahan, and yes, even Travis Hafner. Replacing two of them could have an impact.

The same would be true getting another starting pitcher, even replacing one with someone from Columbus. Who knows? You might just catch lightning in a bottle.

The other night saw a rumor saying the Indians were close to getting Phillies OF Shane Victorino, a free agent at the end of the season. That’s not a sexy pick up, but Victorino is a switch-hitting outfielder, who has been productive in the past.

Let’s say the Indians get him. They would no longer have a need for Cunningham because Victorino is a CF by trade. Victorino could play LF for the Indians, upgrading the OF defense.

It strengthens the bench because Johnny Damon or Hafner would no longer be in the lineup everyday, and it adds another right-handed bat (and a productive one, he’s hitting .318 with a 981 OPS vs. lefties) when facing a southpaw.

And it would also allow Michael Brantley and Shin-Soo Choo to get an occasional day off, keeping them fresh.

It would also lengthen Manny Acta’s batting order, where production ends after the cleanup hitter usually bats (although with Carlos Santana starting to hit a little, it would be after the 5th spot).

It’s one smaller type move, but it should make a decent impact on the team.

Plus, it would also show the players that the front office believes in them, and is concerned with winning baseball games.

Two or three more moves like that could make an even bigger impact, and we’ve been advocating making these subtle moves for over a month.

Yes, the White Sox have lost five straight, but look at the immediate impact Kevin Youkilis made upon his arrival. By the way, does anyone else think it’s odd that the Red Sox wanted either Josh Tomlin or Zack McAllister from Cleveland, but accepted Brett Lillibridge (since released) and Zach Stewart (in the minors) from Chicago?

We’ve always thought you are in the race if you hit Labor Day five games or less out of first. There’s still five weeks or so before that holiday and the Indians have a smaller deficit.

It’s not the time to sell right now. Antonetti needs to help his team, not take it apart.

On the Tribe’s Two-Faced Lineup

The front office of the Cleveland Indians took a calculated risk before the season, stocking the lineup full of left-handed hitters.

The rationale was that there are more right-handed pitchers than southpaws, and Progressive Field favors hitters who swing from the left side.

They may be right. After all, the Indians have the second most home runs hit by left-handed hitters in 2012, trailing only the Yankees.

The problem is the lineup has no balance, because the Tribe doesn’t have enough good hitters, something predicted here before the season.

A look at a normal Cleveland lineup shows the top four hitters in the batting order have batting averages between .272 (Jason Kipnis) and .295 (Asdrubal Cabrera).

That’s the good news.

The bad news is the balance of the lineup have averages between .221 (Carlos Santana and Casey Kotchman) and .201 (Johnny Damon).

Only the third base platoon of Jack Hannahan and Jose Lopez are in the middle, hitting .250 and .257 respectively.

The extreme split in the lineup was never more on display than it was Monday night against the Angels.

After Kipnis walked, Michael Brantley singled and Santana walked to load the bases, the bottom of the order came up to face LA ace Jared Weaver.

Damon grounded out weakly to third, forcing Kipnis at the plate. Kotchman popped out to the catcher, and Shelley Duncan struck out.

No runs scored in a situation where you have to get at least one, and should get two tallies.

When the bottom of the order hits, the Tribe can score some runs, as they did over the weekend in Baltimore. However, as anyone can see from the batting averages, that doesn’t occur very often.

The front office and the optimistic fans will gleefully point out every time guys like Kotchman or Duncan get two or three hits and drive in some runs.

If this deal were offered, who do you think would wind up on top?

Those fans would get $5 when the player of their choice has a good game, but give up the same amount when they take the collar, or go 1 for 5.

The point is those hitters at the bottom of the order don’t produce frequently enough to continue to play, and the Indians’ front office doesn’t seem to be in a big hurry to replace them.

The season is reaching the half way point on the 4th of July, and changes need to be made in the lineup.

Really, if the Indians replaced Damon, Kotchman, Duncan, and Aaron Cunningham with minor leaguers would they get less production?

In fact, three of them (Duncan excluded) have negative VORP (value over replacement player) meaning they are producing less than the average player at their position.

In a close race, there is no time for wishing and hoping that these players will start hitting at a high level, so GM Chris Antonetti needs to bring someone else in, either through a trade or by dipping into the minor leagues.

Before you laugh at the last comment, check out Matt LaPorta’s numbers in the major leagues in 2011 with Kotchman’s numbers. Don’t say there isn’t someone in Columbus that could help.

Travis Hafner will return to the team today and that should help, but how much? Hafner’s stats, especially his power numbers, have been in steady decline over the last few years.

He’s no longer a middle of the order threat, but he will add a hitter that can draw a walk and has occasional pop.

Something has to be done, because the circumstances that occurred Monday are becoming more and more frequent.

Can A Manager Have Favorites?

With Jack Hannahan coming off the disabled list soon, it appears that Lonnie Chisenhall will be on his way back to Columbus when that happens.

The question is did the youngster get a fair shot while he was on the roster?

Chisenhall hasn’t set the world on fire since his recall on May 28th, hitting just .216 in 37 at bats. But is his lack of production based on the way he was used?

He came up and started his first two games, before being put on the bench in his third game with the big club. He was used as a pinch-hitter in that game.

He has pretty much been in the lineup for two days, then out the next since then. For a player used to playing every day in the minor leagues, you have to wonder why he wasn’t used that way in Cleveland.

Manager Manny Acta has sat him down against left-handers, even though Chisenhall has hit .271 with 3 home runs in 48 at bats vs. left-handed starters in his career.

Yes, Chisenhall has issues with the strike zone (54 whiffs vs. 8 walks in 249 at bats) in his young career, but shouldn’t he get the opportunity to be in the lineup everyday?

It could be because Acta feels more comfortable playing veterans like Jack Hannahan, Jose Lopez, and Casey Kotchman if it all possible.

Think about it, what young player did the skipper give a full shot to unless there was no alternative?

The only one you can name is Jason Kipnis, who seemed to be an everyday player from the moment he was called up to the Indians.

Carlos Santana might qualify as well, but Lou Marson was hitting .191 at the time of Santana’s big league debut, so Acta didn’t have a huge choice.

A lot of managers have preferences in terms of playing time, but most of them have to do with production. As the season plays out, we will see if this is true for Manny Acta.

It would appear to most fans that Acta doesn’t care for the games of Matt LaPorta and Chisenhall. Granted, neither one is knocking down fences with the regularity of Babe Ruth, but the Tribe have some guys currently getting a lot of playing time without production.

For example, LaPorta’s career stats (.237 batting average, 697 OPS) are better than what Shelley Duncan is doing this season, .208, 649 OPS). Wouldn’t you give the former a legitimate chance to play LF, 1B, and DH?

Instead, he was sent back to Columbus today.

This is not to suggest that LaPorta is the answer to the Tribe’s right-handed hitting woes. It is merely to suggest he may be a better alternative than Duncan right now.

The Hannahan situation could be resolved by playing him at first base and shelving the Kotchman experiment. We are now 60 games into the season, and the veteran glove man is still hitting .215 with a 605 OPS.

Why not let Chisenhall play third regularly with Hannahan at 1B, and give Lopez some at bats at DH?

Hannahan is a good glove and should be able to do a solid job defensively at the other corner.

Again, we aren’t saying this move would vault the Tribe to the best record in the AL, but shouldn’t the manager be thinking of ways to put the best lineup on the field?

Remember, we had to watch a month of Orlando Cabrera hitting like a pitcher last season, while Cord Phelps couldn’t play more than one day in a row.

It’s alright for a manager to have guys he can turn to when the going gets tough, but stifling the development of young players at the expense of average players isn’t good for the organization.

A First Analysis of the Tribe

The Indians’ front office will disagree with evaluating the team at this time, but after the first game of today’s doubleheader against the White Sox, the Tribe has played 27 games, or one-sixth of the schedule.

The standings say the Indians are in first place in the AL Central Division with a two game lead over the Tigers.

Although many locally are quick to proclaim Cleveland contenders, it is too early to make that claim. You can’t win the division in April, but you can lose it, and the Indians have played well and are still in it after the first month.

Before you start ordering playoff tickets, remember that the team with the best record in the AL is the Baltimore Orioles, and no one thinks they can win the Eastern Division.

At this point, the Tribe ranks 8th in the league in runs scored, and 9th in the AL in ERA, ranking virtually in the middle of both categories.

Those numbers seem to say that Cleveland is a .500 type team. Their runs scored vs. runs allowed say their record should be 13-13, so they have been a little lucky so far.

This is reflected in their mark in games decided by one run, which is 6-1. Success in these games is not indicative of a good or great team. The ’10 Orioles were 29-22 in these games, yet finished 66-96.

Still, teams with good bullpens and average offenses play a lot of close games, and can win them by holding opponents from adding on. Heck, it’s better to win them than to lose them.

Going back to runs scored vs. runs allowed, it is clear that to be a contender, the Indians will have to improve in both areas.

Offensively, Manny Acta is still looking for at least one more productive hitter. Perhaps it can be Johnny Damon or Michael Brantley, but based on the past, you have to feel 3B Jack Hannahan’s numbers will regress at least a bit.

The biggest concern should be 1B Casey Kotchman, who is hitting .163 with a 506 OPS at this point. If Kotchman went 10 for his next 20, he’d still be hitting .230, which doesn’t cut it if you want to contend.

And let us repeat: No matter who good he is defensively, it doesn’t make up for being non-productive with the bat.

It is doubtful the Indians want to bring up Matt LaPorta from Columbus, so perhaps Shelley Duncan will get some reps at first, or maybe Lonnie Chisenhall gets a call (when he’s healthy again) with Hannahan moving to 1B.

As for the pitching, we detailed last week how important Ubaldo Jimenez is to this ballclub winning. Hopefully, he turned the corner after yesterday’s great performance against the Rangers, but until he shows that kind of pitching regularly, he’s still a question mark.

Josh Tomlin is another starter who need to throw like he did in the first half of last year. He’s had five outings, including one in relief, but only one could be considered good (8 IP, 1 ER vs. Seattle).

He and Jimenez need to get deeper into games, in order to take a burden off the relief corps, which has been overworked thus far.

If the bullpen collapses later in the year because of overuse, it could be devastating. The Indians do have some relief depth in the minors in guys like C.C. Lee and rapidly rising Cody Allen, and southpaw Nick Hagadone is already here, but losing games late can be a tough thing to overcome.

So, what can be decided about the 2012 Indians? They are still in it! They haven’t played their way out of contention, but they do have areas they need to shore up.

After another 27 games, the picture could get a little clearer.