Tribe Pitching As Good As Advertised To Date

The Cleveland Indians have played 14 games so far this season, and as of now, their pitching has been as good as advertised.

Opponents have scored more than four runs in just three of the contests, and remarkably, Cleveland pitchers have held the other team to three runs or less in 10 of the games on the slate.

That’s how the Tribe has managed an 8-6 record despite having the second worst runs per game total in the American League, ranking only ahead of Detroit.

Their pitchers rank third in the league in ERA, are fourth in strikeouts and have issued the third least walks in the AL.  So to date, they are as good as advertised.

The usually reliable Carlos Carrasco has two of the three bad starts, but in his other effort vs. Toronto, he struck out 12 Blue Jay hitters in five innings.  Corey Kluber had the other poor effort in the second home game of the year against Chicago.

It appears Shane Bieber has made the leap many projected for him in his two starts, and Trevor Bauer was dominant in his first two outings, and not bad in his third.

The loss of Mike Clevinger, who was spectacular in his first two starts, likely until after the All Star Game, does put a damper on things, but Jefry Rodriguez stepped up last night and gave Terry Francona a solid effort.

Yes, the Indians have played the other two worst offenses in the Junior Circuit to date in the Tigers and Blue Jays (the Tribe is the third), but they do get a solid test starting tomorrow in Seattle, where the Mariners have scolded the baseball through the first three weeks of the season, averaging over seven runs per game.

On the other hand, Toronto scored just six runs in a four game set at Progressive Field, but has averaged over four runs per game in games that didn’t involve the Tribe pitching staff.

So, the Tribe is keeping its head above water despite getting production above replacement player status from just two positions on the diamond, first base (Carlos Santana) and centerfield (Leonys Martin).

In fact, Cleveland shortstops and leftfielders rank as the worst in the AL.  The first spot will take care of itself with the hopefully soon return of the league’s best, Francisco Lindor.

But LF has been manned by Jake Bauers, who is putting the ball in play and drawing some walks, but is batting just .159 so far, with an OPS of 518.  The contact and patience make us feel good about his future, but his production is magnified by the black holes the Indians have at short, and Jose Ramirez’ continued slump.

And the bullpen has been fine too.  Jon Edwards struggled with his control and was sent back to the minors yesterday, but otherwise, there have no major hiccups in the first few weeks.

When the offense has scored enough runs, they have made the leads stand up.

Hopefully, the hitting will give the pitching staff some relief when Lindor and Jason Kipnis return, and Jose Ramirez returns to form.

Right now, the pitching has been as billed.  They may have to continue to be spectacular with the offense performing this way.

MW

Starters Give Tribe A Chance Every Day.

In the past couple of season’s, we have seen major league baseball teams get very creative in how they are using starting pitching.

The “opener” became the new rage a year ago, after Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash, a protégé of Terry Francona, started using it.

Cash using Ryne Stanek as a starter 29 times, and for the season, he pitched a total of 66-1/3 innings.  Similarly, Diego Castillo was the starter in 11 of the 43 appearance he made a year ago, and he pitched just 56 innings.

Milwaukee skipper Craig Counsell used the strategy in the playoff against the Dodgers, who heavily platoon.

While many of baseball’s new age people are celebrating this new use of a pitching staff, let’s make one thing very clear.  Teams that have good starting pitching don’t use an “opener”.

And we see this everyday in Cleveland.

It’s very early in the season, but coming into the 2019 campaign, you can make a very good argument the Tribe has the best rotation in the major leagues.

Corey Kluber is a two time Cy Young Award winner and has pitched over 200 innings in each of the last five seasons.  Since 2014, his ERA has been less than 3.14 four times, and he has fanned 200 or more hitters in five straight seasons.

Not only has Kluber won two Cy Youngs, he’s finished third twice.

Carlos Carrasco has won 35 games the past two seasons combined, and his ERA has been under 3.38 in each of the last three years.  He has struck out over 200 batters in three of the last four years.  He has a 4th place Cy Young finish.

Those two are the old hands, mainstays of the staff for several years.

Then you have the young guns, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger, both 28 years old.

Since the All Star Game, Bauer has thrown 258 innings with a 2.46 ERA and 314 strikeouts.  This season, he has pitched 14 innings and allowed just one hit.  One run too, but amazingly, just one hit.

Clevinger went 13-8 with a 3.02 ERA last season, and fired seven innings of one hit ball in the Cleveland home opener.  He came to the Tribe in a deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and no doubt if he were still there, he would be the ace of the staff.

The Indians’ fifth starter is another guy who would likely be a #2 or #3 starter on most teams, 24-year-old Shane Bieber.  He struck out nine Toronto hitters in his first start on Friday night.

Many baseball people think Bieber will have a breakthrough season in 2019, similar to Kluber’s 2014 year.

We understand most hardcore Tribe fans know how good this quintet is, but as long as they stay healthy, the Indians have a chance to win every night they take the field.  How many other teams can say that?

We aren’t reacting to the performances against a perhaps light-hitting Toronto team, or because it was very cold in Minneapolis.  It’s how these guys have pitched over the last year and a half, or in Bieber’s case, since he arrived in Cleveland.

Dominating games aren’t unusual.  Will they have some tough games?  Of course, Kluber had one against the White Sox, and Carrasco didn’t pitch well in his first start.

All starting pitchers have a handful of games every year when they don’t have their best stuff, but when Terry Francona pencils in his starting pitcher, he knows he may see an incredible performance.

And he doesn’t need an “opener” to do it.

MW

Why Dealing A Tribe Starter Is Smart

The 2019 baseball season will start in a week (yeah, we know Seattle and Oakland are playing in Japan), and the rumors about the Cleveland Indians trading one of their starting pitchers won’t go away.

It was reported earlier this week that San Diego is still talking to the Tribe front office about a starter, presumably either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer.

You can make plenty of reasons to justify trading either of (not both) the men who figure to be at the top of the Cleveland rotation in 2019.

Kluber is certainly the more accomplished of the duo, with two Cy Young Awards (the only Indians’ pitcher to win more than one) and two other top three finishes.

On the other hand, the right-hander will turn 33 in a couple of weeks.  He has club options worth $17.5 million in 2020, and $18 million in 2021 in addition to the $17 million he is reported to make this season.

So, trading him saves the team more money this season as Bauer makes $13 million in ’19, and gets the franchise out of a $35 million commitment for the next two seasons.

For the talent scouts, they have to figure out whether Kluber is starting the decline phase of his career.  His velocity dropped towards the end of last season, and his arm angle was noticeably lower than earlier in the campaign.

If the Tribe has seen the best of Kluber, it makes tremendous sense to move him now, despite the backlash from the media about trading another Cy Young Award winner.

The argument for trading Bauer is we know he is going to test free agency after the 2020 season, and if he pitches like he did in 2018, he is going to cost $20 million for ’20.

Now, dealing Kluber and shedding his salary for 2020 helps pay for Bauer to be sure.

And you can make a pretty good case that Bauer will be the better pitcher in the next two seasons.  Heck, Bauer proclaimed this winter on social media that he had a better 2018 season than the guy who finished third in the Cy Young voting.

He may have been correct too.

However, moving Kluber means by the end of the 2020 season, you won’t have either Kluber or Bauer.  The Tribe would still have Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, and Shane Bieber to head the rotation though, and other options (Triston McKenzie, Sam Hentges, Luis Oviedo) working their way up the system.

San Diego is a good choice to deal with too.  They have an overload of outfielders and the deepest farm system in the major leagues.  That gives the Indians an opportunity to add someone who can be put in the lineup everyday, and another player in the upper minors, where the Tribe is a little light.

Would a deal getting a Hunter Renfroe, a right-handed power bat, who is not arbitration eligible until next year, and won’t be a free agent until 2024, along with a top tier prospect and another lesser one, be worth the squeeze for the Tribe?

Let’s say the deal involves Kluber.  Would a rotation of Bauer, Carrasco, Clevinger, Bieber, and say Adam Plutko, or heck, you could sign James Shields as a free agent, be good enough to win the AL Central?

Of course it could.

If you think with your head instead of your heart, it makes a lot of sense for the Indians to pull the trigger on this type of deal.  If they feel they need a bat to score enough runs to get to the playoffs, it might be the best way to make that happen.

MW

Tribe Roster in ’19 Will Look Very Different.

Little by little, the Cleveland Indians we have come to know are leaving the team.  Some we knew quite well, others passed through quickly.

Lonnie Chisenhall, one of the longest tenured players in the organization signed a one year deal with the Pirates on the same day Josh Donaldson, who spent less than a month with the Tribe, signed with Atlanta.

And of course, there have been rumors of trades, mostly regarding more players who have been with the Indians since Terry Francona was hired prior to the 2013 season.

Players like Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Kipnis, and Yan Gomes are primarily mentioned.

While not all of them will be traded (we think), there is no question the 2019 edition of the Cleveland Indians will look very different from the past.

Obviously, no matter what occurs in the next couple of months, the Tribe will be led by Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, both of whom finished in the top six in the American League MVP voting, and regardless of a trade, a stout starting rotation.

We have read comments from fans and media alike calling this a fire sale, or the Indians cutting payroll, but we don’t believe that’s the case.

Any moves made will involves redistributing the money the ownership can spend, because right now, they have a lot of money tied up in players in the decline phases of their careers.

Take Gomes, for example.  He is scheduled to make slightly over $7 million next season.  He’ll be 32 during the 2019 season, and had his best offensive season (762 OPS) since 2014 (785 OPS).

Why not trade him now after a good offensive season, in addition to his excellent defense and handling of a pitching staff?  And you give yourself some additional money to address other areas of need.

As for Kipnis, it’s a matter of moving a player who appears to have peaked in 2016 and is owed a lot of money next season.  It is doubtful the veteran will bring a lot in return because of his bloated salary.  In fact, the Indians may have to kick in some cash to make the deal.

Even if they have to throw in $4 million, that still gives the organization an extra $10 million to upgrade other areas.

And we still believe Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff will move one of the starting pitchers to bring in the biggest prize, a young controllable bat who can add depth to the batting order.

We still believe Carrasco will bring the biggest return.

It may not end there either.  The front office would love to move Yonder Alonso and/or Edwin Encarnacion freeing up more cash to spend, not to keep.

While we have seen some moves around baseball already, our guess is the Tribe will look to deal off some veterans before adding the new faces to the roster.

However, we reiterate that what the front office is doing to reallocating the payroll to try and prop the window open for several more years.  At the end of the season, we came to the realization that everyone in their normal lineup was over 30 years old, save for Lindor and Ramirez.

That’s not a recipe to get better, especially offensively.

That’s the off-season goal of the front office in our opinion, to get surround the two MVP candidates with players with upside.

That, and rebuild the bullpen.

MW

Bigger Market For Kluber Or Carrasco?

When baseball’s GM meetings took place a week ago, the rumors started that the Cleveland Indians were willing to move some of their veterans, excluding MVP candidates Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez.

Then came word the Tribe was talking to the Yankees about starting pitchers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco in a big time trade.

That got us thinking…who would the fans rather see moved, and more importantly, who might bring the haul if they were moved.

Certainly, Kluber has had the more accomplished career.  He’s a two time Cy Young Award winner, has finished in the top three in the voting four times, and is coming off his first 20 win season.

Carrasco has been one of the sports’ best starting pitchers since 2015, winning 60 games over the past four seasons, with an ERA under 4.00 each season.  He has fanned 200 or more hitters in three of those seasons.

However, Kluber is older, he’ll be 33 on April 10th, and has more miles on his arm, having thrown 200 or more innings in each of the last five seasons. It also appears to many people that his arm slot became lower as the season went on in 2018. Kluber has the longer contract, which would give potential targets cost certainty for the next three seasons. 

But the deal is for big dollars, he will earn $17 million in 2019, $17.5 million in 2020, and $18 million in 2021.  Those last two years are at a team option.

Carrasco is signed for the 2019 season with a club option for 2020, at a deal that is far below what his performance has merited.  He is making slightly over $7 million for ’19, and has a club option for $9.5 million for 2020.

Based on this information, Carrasco might bring back more in a trade than the Indians’ ace.  The lure of getting a top notch starting pitcher at below market dollars could bring a huge return from other teams.

The market would seem to be contending teams for Kluber, while Carrasco could interest teams that are building for a playoff run in 2019. 

Regardless, teams that would be a good match for the Indians would be organizations that have a very good farm system, particularly with major league ready talent.

A perusal of the top farm systems in the sport show several teams that would be interested in adding a top of the rotation starting pitcher.  Those teams would be the Braves, Rays, Phillies, Yankees, A’s, and Dodgers. The Tribe wants to get younger on the field and would likely be looking for a young, controllable pitcher as well. 

The Indians are able to consider such a move because of the depth of the starting rotation.  Let’s say Carrasco is moved.  The rotation would still be comprised of Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Shane Bieber.  

The fifth spot would be between Adam Plutko and either a decent veteran signed in free agency, or somebody obtained in the deal for Carrasco.  

Not many teams have that kind of rotation depth.  

By the way, we like the minor trade the Tribe made yesterday getting OF Jordan Luplow from Pittsburgh for utility man Erik Gonzalez.  

As we have said for years, we don’t believe Gonzalez will ever be a productive regular because of his lack of strike zone judgment.  His career strikeout to walk ratio is 79:9.

Luplow has hit .300 in AAA with a 857 OPS at that level, and is solid defensively.  That resume would put him in line to start in 2019 based on who the Indians have right now.  

We are sure there will be more to come.

MW 

Hot Stove Season Opens For Tribe

Now that the World Series has ended, the Hot Stove season has started for major league baseball teams, and initially there are a lot of procedural things that must be done.

The first is making decisions on the contract options for many players.  The Indians historically don’t offer many (if any) player options, they like to be the one making the decisions on an extra year for a player in question.

Both decisions made yesterday by the front office were no brainers, in our opinion.

The Tribe picked up the option on Carlos Carrasco, one of the best starting pitchers in the sport.  Carrasco has won 35 games over the past two seasons, striking out at least 200 hitters in each year.

They passed on outfielder Brandon Guyer, saving $2.75 million.  Guyer is a platoon player who feasted on left-handed pitching when he came over from Tampa in 2016, but in the subsequent years, he’s had injury issues and his production, while still good, isn’t at an elite level versus southpaws anymore.

Next on the agenda are making qualifying offers to the prospective free agents.  We are sure such a deal will be offered to Michael Brantley, but the real questions would be Andrew Miller and Cody Allen.

If you make the offer, you have to be prepared the player will accept, and that’s why we would extend the deal to Miller only.  If he’s healthy, which he hasn’t been since the middle of last season, he’s still a dominant reliever.

Allen has declined in performance in 2018, perhaps due to the wear and tear of making a lot of appearance over his seven years in Cleveland.  It’s a tough decision and a tough business because Cody Allen has been a loyal player, willing to do whatever Terry Francona wanted him to do.

To improve the roster for the 2019 season, the Indians will need to gain some financial relief, meaning it would behoove the front office to look at highly paid players, who aren’t producing to the level of their contracts.

The chief players to look at here are Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, and Yonder Alonso.  It is doubtful Encarnacion can be moved, because being a DH limits him to American League teams.

The other two would be in play, but there is no question in our mind that Cleveland would have to eat some money to make any deal happen.

Moving both would lop about $22 million off the team’s projected salaries, minus whatever the team would have to pay to make it work.

Although they will be the favorites to win the AL Central for the 4th consecutive season, it would be hard to take them seriously as a World Series contender with an outfield of Kipnis in LF, Tyler Naquin in RF, and a platoon of Leonys Martin and Greg Allen in CF.

There is also the matter of rebuilding the bullpen, which with Miller and Allen’s likely departure has just Brad Hand as a proven, reliable option.

It appears the organization has high hopes for Jon Edwards, but it would be nice to have another proven arm in the ‘pen going into spring training.  The cost for relief help would seem to be less than that of a solid big league hitter.

In a few days, we will know who is available in the free agent market and can examine some possible low cost options who could help.

The Indians have the stars, now they need to surround them with better secondary players.

MW

Examining Tribe Free Agents & Other Stuff

It’s been a week since the Cleveland Indians’ season ended after getting swept in the American League Division Series by the Houston Astros.

Thus, the Tribe joins all but four major league teams in looking forward to the 2019 season.  Barring something drastic, the Indians will enter next season as the favorites for a fourth consecutive Central Division title.

However, there has the potential to have a pretty large roster turnover for Cleveland, and there probably will be.  What should the Indians do to improve next season?

First, the everyday lineup needs to be deeper.  The lineup was top heavy for most of the past season, and when Jose Ramirez slumped in the middle of August, there wasn’t enough hitting by everyone hitting after Edwin Encarnacion, and by that we mean consistent hitting.

The Indians have 11 free agents this winter, including Carlos Carrasco and Brandon Guyer, both of whom have club options for 2019.  The other nine are as follows–

Cody Allen
Michael Brantley
Melky Cabrera
Lonnie Chisenhall
Rajai Davis
Josh Donaldson
Andrew Miller
Oliver Perez
Josh Tomlin

We would exercise Carrasco’s option, but let Guyer walk.  Guyer was lethal against southpaws when he arrived in 2016, but although he had an 804 OPS vs. LHP in 2018, he hit just .233, which isn’t good enough.  And he’s 32 years old.

The qualifying offer for free agents will be around $17.5 million, and there is no doubt the Tribe will make the offer to Brantley.  They may also pick one of the two relief pitchers, Allen or Miller, as well.

That will get them draft pick compensation depending on the size of the contract they sign with other teams, should they go elsewhere.

Out of the two, we would pick Miller, because he didn’t pitch as much this season, and let’s face it, he’s the more dominant of the pair.  If he accepts it, and he might to rebuild his value, you have another back end of the bullpen reliever.

Allen seems to have shown the wear and tear of averaging 68 appearances per season in his seven seasons with the Indians.

As for Brantley, we would explore bringing him back, but only on a two year deal max.  The outfielder will be 32 years old next May, and we have seen the negatives of signing players over 30 to multiyear deals.

He hasn’t had a fall off in performance with the bat, but his defense has declined, and he had the injury issues in both 2016 and 2017.

The organization seems to have an issue with Chisenhall, who would seem to be an ideal candidate to bring back on an incentive laden one year deal.  The former first round pick has been limited to 320 at bats, batting .297 with 13 homers and 62 RBI in the past two injury plagued seasons.

He’s a solid offensive player, particularly against right handed pitching.

They have to make room for Yandy Diaz to play everyday.  It seems absurd to think the organization sent someone to the minors coming off a year at AAA where he slashed .350/454/460.

Diaz can hit, and he needs to be doing it at the major league level.

And the front office has to improve the batting attack by getting more consistent hitters.  We believe you need seven solid hitters to have a solid lineup.

We will look at the free agent list when it is complete to examine who is on the market.

Oh, and one last thing.  After Manny Machado and Bryce Harper sign, start working on a long term contract with Lindor.

This is a big, big off-season for the Tribe front office.  Simply put, they must improve this roster around the core of Lindor, Ramirez, and the starting rotation.

MW

Looking At Tribe Roster Options For ALDS

One week from now, baseball’s post-season will be upon us, although the Cleveland Indians will not start the Division Series against the defending champion Houston Astros until Friday, October 5th.

The roster for that series is unknown, as is how many pitchers the Tribe will carry for the best-of-five set against the Astros.

We believe Terry Francona, Chris Antonetti, and Mike Chernoff will go with 11 pitchers in that series, and will use four starters, with Corey Kluber going in Game 1.

And four starters is the way to go too.  We have heard people talk about using Carlos Carrasco and even Trevor Bauer as relief weapons in the first round, but really, wouldn’t you want those two giving you 15-21 outs instead of let’s say, 7-9 outs?

You have heard national media talk about how dangerous the Indians are because of their starting pitching, so why use guys on short rest, or use rookie Shane Bieber as a starter so you can use a pitcher who has started all year out of the bullpen?

Seems like you are weakening a strength.

As for the bullpen, which we project will have seven pitchers, the obvious choices are Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, and Brad Hand.  Oliver Perez deserves a spot too, but with Houston being right-handed hitter dominant, do you keep the veteran southpaw?

Yes, because right handed hitters are 3 for 42 vs. the southpaw who comes at hitters with a variety of angles and deception.

Who fills the other three spots?

Right handed batters have a 599 OPS on the season vs. Adam Cimber, and his sidearming style should be good for use as a ROOGY.  He will probably make the squad.

That leaves Dan Otero, Neil Ramirez, Josh Tomlin, and Jon Edwards vying for two spots.

All four give up a lot of home runs, the lowest home run rate per nine innings belongs to Otero, who although it seems like he gives up a lot of long balls, he’s actually done it at a lower rate than the others.

Remember though, Edwards’ work is based on just 7-2/3 innings since he was just called up on September 1st.

If you want punch outs, then Ramirez (11.2 strikeouts per nine) and Edwards (11.0) are the guys you want.

Otero has the lowest OPS vs. right handed hitters (280/424/704), with Ramirez next best at 294/450/744.

Based on the numbers, Tomlin seems to fit only if loyalty is an overwhelming factor.  The veteran has allowed 3.3 homers per nine, has the lowest strikeout rate (5.6) and righty hitters have an 811 OPS against him.

That would leave five bench players (assuming Josh Donaldson at 3B, Jason Kipnis in CF, and Melky Cabrera in RF).  Roberto Perez will be the backup catcher, and no doubt Brandon Guyer will make the roster to face Dallas Keuchel.

We also believe Greg Allen will be there for defense in the outfield and Rajai Davis (not that we agree with this) will be there as a pinch running option.

This would seem to leave the last spot between Yandy Diaz and Erik Gonzalez.  Diaz has been platooning at first base with Yonder Alonso, but he has tailed off since a hot start.

If you don’t keep Gonzalez, you have no backup shortstop except for Jose Ramirez, which based on Francisco Lindor’s durability, may not be a factor.

Our guess is Diaz makes the roster.

The official announcement date will be a week from today, and a lot can still happen, particularly in the bullpen.

Then we will see how accurate our thinking was…

MW

Tough Decisions Coming For Tribe.

The Cleveland Indians have played 50 games this season, and it seems like they have been in a scrambling mode since the opener in Seattle.

Yes, there have been constants.  The lineup has been buoyed all season long by their version of “The Big Three”:  Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Jose Ramirez.  That trio are the only three players currently on the roster with OPS over 800, outside of Erik Gonzalez, who rarely plays.

The starting rotation is also been a constant as well, as Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and Mike Clevinger have provided Terry Francona with a chance to win every night.

The rest of the team is in flux, with the bullpen issues being front and center.  For the first six innings, the Indians look like one of the best teams in baseball.  Unfortunately, they’ve allowed 43.7% of their opponents runs after the sixth inning.

That’s almost two runs per game!

No one has escaped the horribleness.  Andrew Miller has been on the disabled list twice since the end of April, and when he has pitched, he’s walked 10 hitters in 14-1/3 innings.

Cody Allen struck out 92 batters in 67-1/3 frames in 2017, and for his career has fanned 11.5 hitters per nine innings.  This year, that figure has dropped to 9.1, his lowest since his rookie year (2012).

The rest of the bullpen can’t put two consecutive good outings together for the most part. Just when you start feeling good about someone, they get hammered.

Zach McAllister has pitched well in May, and we thought maybe it was time to give him another look see.  So did Francona, who brought him into a 7-5 game last night, only to see him give up a run in the 7th to close the gap.

Meanwhile, the front office is retreading the retreads.  Oliver Drake is brought in, he is gone.  Evan Marshall came up, gave up 3 hits and 3 walks in 2-2/3, was sent down, now he is back.

Neil Ramirez has allowed 7 hits, including two dingers in 2-2/3.  Our guess is his next bad appearance will be his last.

And Josh Tomlin?  My goodness, how can a pitcher who is allowing a home run every other inning he pitches still in the big leagues?

As for the everyday players, some decisions will have to be made soon, because the injured players will start to return.

What happens when Lonnie Chisenhall comes back?  Does he platoon with Melky Cabrera in right?

And who goes when Bradley Zimmer returns?  Perhaps it is Zimmer, who has fanned 39 times in 106 plate appearances.

Tyler Naquin deserves a spot on the roster the way he hit before being injured (.333 batting average, 820 OPS).

Can Rajai Davis keep his spot on the roster?  A 527 OPS doesn’t really help the ballclub.  And what about Brandon Guyer, who hasn’t been as effective against lefties as he was in 2016.

We could see a lot more Edwin Encarnacion at first base, especially vs. lefties, with Brantley moving to DH, so Cabrera can play LF.

Our guess is Zimmer will be the first one back, and Greg Allen will go back to AAA.  That will mean Zimmer and Davis will platoon in center.

But when Chisenhall is ready, that will force a tough decision.  It will be interesting to see what direction the front office goes in.

Within the next two to three weeks, the Indians roster could look totally different.  And hopefully that means better.

MW

 

 

Tribe Sequel: Bullpen From Hell, Part Deux

Many baseball people believe you really can’t evaluate a baseball team until 40 games have been played, a quarter of the baseball season.

If that is true of the Indians’ front office, they would see a team that has a lot of potholes that need to be filled and the quicker, the better.

Chief among the holes is the bullpen, which according to ERA, is the worst in baseball.  It says something about the volatility of relief pitching that just two years ago, in 2016, the Tribe bully carried the team to the World Series.

To date, of the 185 runs given up by Cleveland pitching this season, 76 have scored in the 7th inning or later.  In Tuesday night’s debacle against the Tigers, five more were added to the total, all scoring in a disastrous seventh inning.

Really, no one is pitching well in relief, other than Cody Allen, and even he melted down in New York less than two weeks ago.

Andrew Miller just returned from the disabled list and still isn’t sharp, giving up the lead in two of this last three appearances.

Miller’s injury caused a major upheaval in the ‘pen, and it appears because of it, Terry Francona started handling his relievers like it was the post-season.

He started extending the starters, with several throwing more pitches than the normally threw in a game.

For example, last season, Carlos Carrasco threw more than 110 pitches in a game just three times.  In 2018, he has already done it four times.  It’s only May.

Mike Clevinger never reached the 110 pitch threshold in 2017, but to date this season, he’s done it three times.

How will this affect the starting pitchers as the season goes on?  It’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

The front office didn’t fill the holes created by the departures of Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith in the off-season, and that has caused a tremendous void.

The skipper tried Zach McAllister in Shaw’s seventh inning role to start the season, but the veteran has put up a 7.47 ERA and has allowed five home runs in just 15-2/3 innings.  Somehow, he remains on the roster despite never being trusted to pitch in high leverage situations.

Dan Otero, a reliable reliever over the last two seasons (ERAs of 1.53 and 2.85), has the same ERA as McAllister in the same number of innings.

Another holdover from a year ago, Nick Goody, is on the disabled list, but before he went out, he allowed four dingers in 11-2/3 innings, and had a 6.94 ERA.

Right now, the most recent good outings by relievers not named Allen, were by Oliver Drake, who just came over from Milwaukee in a trade, and Neil Ramirez, a veteran signed in the off-season on a minor league free agent, and just brought up from Columbus.

It is such a dire situation, that we would call on either of them if the Indians have a lead this weekend in Houston.  Guys like Otero, McAllister, and southpaw Tyler Olson would have regain trust by having a series of good outings.

The good news is bullpen arms should be plentiful at the trade deadline.  Unfortunately, the Tribe will have to give up assets that could have been used elsewhere to acquire them.

Right now, it’s a wet blanket on the entire squad.

MW