Remembering When Starting Pitching Brought Confidence To Guardians’ Fans

As recently as 2018, fans of the Cleveland baseball team were spoiled by their starting pitching. The rotation consisted of Corey Kluber (who won 20 games that year), Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer, and a rookie fifth starter named Shane Bieber.

At the time, we thought going into every game, the Indians had a legitimate chance to win because they had the edge between the two starting pitchers.

Even into the pandemic season of 2020, Terry Francona’s starters were at the top of the sport. Bieber emerged as a Cy Young winner that season, and he was backed up by Carrasco, Clevinger (before he was traded), Aaron Civale, and rookie Triston McKenzie.

Baseball people started to refer to the “Cleveland Pitching Factory”, with the organization seemingly able to crank out starter after starter. Heck, it happened last season when McKenzie went down in spring training, Zach Plesac proved ineffective, and Cal Quantrill was hurt, the Guardians simply went to the farm and called up Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams.

Apparently, this season the factory has been shut down for repairs or something, because the organization is scrambling to put an effective starting pitcher on the mound each and every night.

It was certainly curious when the organization released Quantrill after the season rather than pay him through arbitration, where he figured to make about $6 million, not a lot of money for a guy who can give you innings.

The right-hander has pitched to a 3.58 ERA in Colorado this season logging a staff high 73 innings. By the way, those innings would also lead the Guardians’ staff.

The only pitcher signed over the winter was Reds’ castoff Ben Lively, who has been a savior for this year’s staff.

Bieber was lost to elbow surgery after two starts, leaving a huge void in the rotation, which coming into the season consisted of him, the three rookies, and McKenzie, who missed most of last year with an elbow issue.

Of the trio of first year arms called up last year and thought to provide the backbone of the rotation going forward, only Bibee has been close to his ’23 form, with a 3.73 ERA in 70 innings with 76 strikeouts and 19 walks.

Williams has missed all year with an elbow issue, but hopefully can return soon. Allen has made his 13 starts but has a 5.57 ERA.

McKenzie has not pitched like the guy who put up a 2.96 ERA in 2022. He has allowed a league leading 14 dingers (tied with his teammate Logan Allen) and also leads the league in walks with 36 in 62.2 innings of work.

Right now, the rotation has more holes than an old guy’s socks. And there were no solutions at hand.

Xzavion Curry has made three spot starts, one very good, the other two being “meh”. The ERA of the pitching staff at Columbus is 5.46 and the best starter down there is journeyman Connor Gillispie, who has a 5.02 ERA, although he has 60 strikeouts in 57.1 innings. He’s 26 years old.

The bullpen has taken on a heavy burden for the big club to get off to this 42-22 start. How long can they sustain the success pitching all of these innings? Could they do it all year? Sure, but based on the past, eventually it is going to catch up with them unless the starters start carrying their weight.

As we said, Lively has been a savior and Bibee has been solid. Carlos Carrasco has been a nice story in his return to the franchise, but he can’t be trusted to get through a lineup a third time.

McKenzie needs to throw strikes and he and Allen need to keep the ball in the yard.

More likely is the front office is going to have to overpay to bring in an arm. With the Cleveland bullpen, they may be able to get a guy who can soak up innings and keep the team in the game.

The rest of the team is doing too well for the rotation to be a burden.

Guardians’ Off-Season Has Been Riveting

Today is January 7, 2024. This means in 37 days; baseball fans hear the expression they have waited for since the World Series ended on November 1st: ”Pitchers and catchers report to spring training”.

If you are a fan of the Cleveland Guardians, it has been watching the constant upgrades to the roster, as the front office addressed the weaknesses, particularly the hitting, which finished 12th in the American League in runs scored.

The heavy sarcasm is intended.

Yes, we know the Guardians have a new manager, but they have done little else with spring training commencing in little over a month.

And this isn’t last season, coming off a Central Division title, the Guardians were a below .500 team in 2023.

First, they selected 1B/OF Alfonso Rivas from Pittsburgh off waivers, and then put him on waivers themselves several weeks later. They also added C Christian Bethancourt from Tampa Bay via the same method, and then traded him to Miami for cash (we will spare the sarcasm here, oh guess we didn’t) a little over a month later.

The biggest move they made was designating Cal Quantrill for assignment, and then trading him to Colorado for a minor league catcher. Apparently, when Terry Francona retired, so did the mantra that you can’t have too much pitching.

The one move that would rank highest on the excitement level (still would be around a 4 on a scale of 1-10) would be acquiring reliever Scott Barlow from San Diego for Enyel De La Santos. Barlow is a former closer and could be a cure for overusing Emmanuel Clase, assuming he isn’t traded before the season starts, as there have been rumors.

The Guardians didn’t stop there though. In kind of a secret move, Oscar Gonzalez, a post-season hero just a year and a half ago, was put on waivers and claimed by the Yankees.

Since they lost Quantrill, team president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff swung into action and signed Ben Lively, not to be confused with actress Blake Lively, as a free agent from Cincinnati.

Lively, 32, could be another veteran anchor to the Cleveland rotation. That is if you dismiss his career 5.05 ERA in 208 big league innings. He had a 5.38 ERA for the Reds last year, but of course, their home park is very hitter friendly.

Unfortunately, his ERA at home was 4.70 and his road figure was 5.90.

Austin Hedges, a fan favorite (why?) was brought back as a free agent. Hedges is a tremendous defensive catcher, but he his OPS over the last three seasons have been 461, 489, and 527. And the first figure was the most recent.

The day after Christmas, the Guardians dealt oft-injured pitcher Cody Morris to the Yankees for left-handed hitter OF Estevan Florial, a former top 100 prospect.

Florial hit .230 (635 OPS) in 61 at bats for New York last season. He did belt 28 homers and put up a 945 OPS at AAA last year. He does strike out a lot, but his walk rate has got better over the past two seasons. No sarcasm here, but perhaps he can help.

On the other hand, he hits left-handed, not really an area of need, although the power would help.

Our point is it must be very tough to be a salesman in the ticket office for this team. They’ve virtually given their fans nothing to be excited about, although we are sure they would say it is because of the uncertainty surrounding their local television deal.

Perhaps in the next 30 days, they will be involved in doing something to significantly help their new skipper, Steven Vogt, have a more competitive squad.

We are sure the prospect gurus out there will tell us how several rookies will impact the 2024 edition of the Cleveland Guardians and all will be well.

Truth be told, we like some of their talent coming up, and hope those folks are correct. Our experience tells us most of those good young players won’t make an impact in 2024.

Hot Stove Season? More like Hot Doze Season if you are a fan of the Guardians.

Guardians’ Off-Season Moves Are Puzzling

It seems the entire “Hot Stove” portion on the Major League Baseball calendar was delayed by the whole Shohei Ohtani situation, but with the holiday season here, the norm for most teams is to have their major moves made before the calendar changes.

It has been particularly slow in Cleveland, where the offices on the corner of Ontario and Carnegie have been quiet, and when a move has been made, confusing.

The latter part of that statement is more concerning. We sometimes wish the organization would put as much effort in improving the team on the field as they do come up with reasons they can’t spend money.

For example, one of the first moves the Guards made this off-season was claiming Alfonso Rivas off waivers. Rivas has played in 167 big league games, hitting .243 with a 673 OPS. Last season, he played for San Diego and Pittsburgh, and had a 725 OPS. He did hit .332 at AAA El Paso with a 1043 OPS.

He’s a left-handed hitter (not an area of need) and plays 1B (also not an area of need) and the OF. And he’s 27 years old, and not a home run hitter. He’s also survived a bunch of roster moves where players had to be moved off the 40-man roster. That’s strange to us.

They let a serviceable starting pitcher, Cal Quantrill go rather than offer him arbitration, where he likely would have been awarded $6 million. Keep in mind this week, Kansas City signed Seth Lugo, a pitcher who pitched a career high 146 innings last year, to a contract worth $15 million per year.

A couple of days ago, they said they added depth to the rotation (depth they had with Quantrill) by signing 32-year-old Ben Lively, who had a 5.38 ERA for the Reds last year. We know Cincinnati has a hitter friendly park, but Lively was worse away from Great American Ballpark.

They claimed Christian Bethancourt, a catcher with some pop (11 homers in each of the last two seasons) from Tampa, only to deal him to Miami when they brought back Austin Hedges, a good defensive catcher who cannot hit. And they are paying Hedges more than they would have had to pay Bethancourt!

We will say the Guardians are probably the only team in baseball who can say Hedges is a better offensive option that the backup catcher they had a year ago.

The only move that makes sense was getting Scott Barlow from San Diego for Enyel De Los Santos. Barlow is a higher leverage reliever, with closer experience whereas De Los Santos kind of struggled when used in the late innings.

We wonder if a more substantial move is yet to come. There are still rumors surrounding Shane Bieber, but we think his return could be better in July if the Guardians aren’t in the race.

Right now, we can’t see the Guardians as being improved. They also seem reticent to move a couple of veterans to more key positions, such as Andres Gimenez to shortstop and Steven Kwan to centerfield, to open up spots for some hitting.

There’s still time, but the inactivity is certainly frustrating to a fan base that keeps remembering this number: 1948.

Attendance Was Up For Guardians, Now How About Payroll?

The Bally Sports situation is troubling for many baseball teams, we understand that. Losing the rights fee for organizations is definitely a loss of revenue.

However, let’s not forget that these ballclubs will be paid by some entity to televise their games in 2024. It may not be as much as Bally’s was paying, but there will be income coming in.

We also need to remember that nobody uses this time of news better than mid to small market Major League Baseball owners. We already have heard a few teams telling their fans they have to cut payroll due to this situation.

Recently, Guardians’ president Chris Antonetti said the organization let right-handed starting pitcher Cal Quantrill go because what he figured to get in arbitration didn’t fit in with the teams’ payroll structure.

To us, if you can’t spend $6 million on a serviceable starting pitcher, it raises an eyebrow. After all, Cleveland already had the second lowest payroll in the big leagues last season, ahead of only Oakland. (according to Baseballreference.com)

It’s also a good time to remind you that the Guardians had the fourth biggest gain in attendance in ’23, behind Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. We know some folks will argue they were low-cost tickets that caused the spike, but we would argue the main thing is getting people in the park, remember, no team is selling concessions at cost.

This organization have always implied they couldn’t spend money on players because of dwindling attendance figures. So, attendance went up last year, and now it is the possibility of losing the television deal that won’t allow the Guardians to spend money on players.

We have always said we understand the Guardians can’t have a $200 million payroll, they certainly don’t generate the same type of revenue that teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Phillies can.

However, last season they outdrew Kansas City, who had a payroll $18 million higher than the Guards. Miami spent $114 million on players, and Cleveland outdrew them by 650,000 people.

The Brewers and Twins are similar market sizes, and both teams’ salaries for players were almost $140 million. By the way, Minnesota is saying they will have to cut payroll because of the local broadcast situation.

Now, one of the reasons Cleveland’s salaries are low is because they are the youngest team in the majors, so many of their players are on minimum contracts because they haven’t reached arbitration yet.

Don’t they have room to add some veterans who can help the team?

So, local television deal or not, the Guardians need to increase the amount they are spending on players for the 2024 season.

Let’s face it, coming off a 92 win season and a division title in 2023, last season was a disappointment. They have a new manager in Steven Vogt and should want to get him all the help he needs.

And you can’t forget the elephant in the room: 1948. The fans came out last season, now the front office should hold up their end of the bargain.

Nothing major, but how about not being in the bottom five in the league in payroll. We don’t think that’s too much to ask.

Moving Quantrill Is Odd, Getting Barlow Is Good

Former Guardians’ manager Terry Francona, and yes, it’s weird to write that, used to say that when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more. Apparently, Cleveland is no subscribing to that adage with one of their first off-season moves.

In order to add rookies Daniel Espino and Cade Smith to the 40-man roster, the Guardians designated Cal Quantrill for assignment.

Quantrill will likely never be in the conversation for a Cy Young Award, but he is a reliable starting pitcher.

The Guards received minor league catcher Kody Huff from Colorado, he played in A ball last season. Team president Chris Antonetti said the Guardians didn’t think Quantrill was worth the likely $6 million he would receive in arbitration, and in a vacuum, he’s probably right.

However, sometimes there is hidden value. With Shane Bieber (who may be traded) and Triston McKenzie coming off injuries, if they aren’t ready, the starting rotation right now looks like Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, and a mixture of Hunter Gaddis, rookie Joey Cantillo, Xzavion Curry, and perhaps Cody Morris.

That would be three second-year starters, who have no proven track record in the bigs, and a bunch of arms without a track record in the majors.

Wouldn’t Quantrill, a proven big-league starter have some value to Cleveland? He has made 94 big league starts, pitching to a 4.06 ERA in those outings.

If you were a contending club, or one who says they are, you would want pitchers who you know can give you a decent outing. And as much as we like Bibee, Williams, and Allen, we don’t know if they will pitch as well in 2024.

So, if we were Antonetti and Mike Chernoff, we’d be looking for an established starting pitcher. Our philosophy as a GM would be to guard against things as best you can if things go wrong. With the injuries to Bieber and McKenzie, and depending on second-year players, we think a lot could go wrong.

Cleveland did make another trade on Friday, getting reliever Scott Barlow from San Diego for Enyel De Los Santos.

De Los Santos had two solid years here, pitching in 120 games with a 3.18 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 119 innings, but seemed more comfortable in a sixth or seventh inning role. His ERA is almost a run higher in the 8th than in the 7th in his career.

Barlow has closing experience, saving 53 games with the Royals from 2021 to 2023, including 13 last year before being dealt to the Padres. He’s also a strikeout pitcher, fanning 393 hitters in 332 innings for his career.

He should give Emmanuel Clase some relief at times, because he seemed to be the only reliable alternative the team had in ’23.

And he would also seem to move Trevor Stephan, who struggled mightily in the second half last year into more of a 7th inning role.

The Guardians also signed Ramon Laureano to a one-year deal, after he hit .243/.342/.382/724 after being released by Oakland. He also has a career 791 OPS vs. lefties since coming to the major leagues.

They paid Laureano a reported $5.1 million next year, and that makes us wonder about Myles Straw’s future. Laureano can play CF and RF, and is a good defensive outfielder. It’s hard to see Cleveland paying Straw $4.9 million (and it escalates in ’25 and ’26) and Laureano.

Just something to keep an eye on and the hot stove season moves on.

How Does Rotation Check Out For Guardians in ’24?

Most of the focus in looking forward to 2024 for the Cleveland Guardians has centered around improving the hitting and rightly so. It is well documented that the Guards are 12th in the American League in runs scored, and make no mistake, in the regular season, if you can’t score you don’t win.

Of the teams scoring above the league average in runs per game, only the Red Sox and Angels are below the .500 mark. You have to put runs on the board.

But what about the pitching, which for years has been the strength of the Guardians’ franchise. The organization likes to refer to the “pitching factory”.

(Our comment has been to ask when the “hitting factory” will be built, and we get that is being snarky).

With the injuries to Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill this season, a new core of young pitchers has emerged. Tanner Bibee (10-4, 2.98 ERA with 141 strikeouts in 142 innings), Gavin Williams (3-5, 3.29 ERA, 81 Ks in 82 IP), and Logan Allen (7-7, 3.60 ERA, 118 Ks in 122.1 IP) have certainly earned spots in next season’s rotation.

The biggest question mark has to be the health of McKenzie, who has made just two starts this season and with a strained ligament in his elbow, it wouldn’t be a shock if Tommy John surgery is in his future and that would put him out for the season.

That brings us to Bieber, who has missed significant parts of the season in two of the last three seasons and will be a free agent following the ’24 season. He isn’t the guy who won the Cy Young Award in 2020, but he still is a quality starter. Would he be interested in a short-term extension because of the injuries?

And you have Quantrill, who’s last three starts since coming back from a shoulder issue have been very good. Many people complain about him, but really, if he’s your fifth starter, you have a pretty solid rotation.

And you still have Hunter Gaddis, Xzavion Curry, and southpaw Joey Cantillo (6-4, 4.09 ERA, 142 Ks in 114 IP, but with 63 walks at AAA and AA this season).

Rotation depth is needed as we saw with the club this season.

It is doubtful that Cleveland can put together a package for Lucas Giolito this winter that would satisfy him and his agent this winter, so we would consider that a longshot.

But if the front office is doing their job (and we have confidence) they have to figure one of the young trio will fall off a bit from outstanding rookie seasons.

We would also consider moving Eli Morgan back into a starting role. Morgan had a 3.45 ERA in the second half of 2021 as a starter, striking out 49 hitters in 44.1 innings. We would do this because Morgan gives up too many long balls to flourish in the bullpen.

If Bieber is dealt and McKenzie cannot pitch in ’24, the front office will have to explore other options for the rotation, perhaps a large one-year contract for Giolito or rolling the dice with Gaddis, Curry, and Morgan.

The starting rotation is easily the strength of the team, but the organization cannot get complacent.

And remember one thing Terry Francona has always said: When you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.

Important Series In Minnesota? Don’t Think The FO Thinks So

The Cleveland Guardians should be entering a crucial stretch as five of their next eight games are against the Minnesota Twins, who currrently lead the AL Central Division by six games over Cleveland.

We say should because we aren’t sure the management of the team are interested, or should we say fully invested in catching the Twins.

We are sure the players are trying to win every night, but it seems like Terry Francona, Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff are ambivalent.

In Sunday’s game, the Guards had a 4-3 lead in the sixth inning and Noah Syndergaard had thrown over 80 pitches. He allowed a runner to reach, but no one was warming in the bullpen meaning the starter was out there to complete the inning.

He gave up a two-run homer to allow Toronto to capture the league and was removed after six frames. He was also designated for assignment after the contest.

With Cal Quantrill likely to be activated on Friday, he will take Syndergaard’s place in the rotation, but to replace him, the Guardians called up retread Daniel Norris to take his place.

Norris replaced Xzhavion Curry last night and promptly gave up four runs turning a 6-5 contest into a 10-6 Twins’ lead.

Last year, the organization was very aggressive bringing up young players like Will Brennan, Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, and Cody Morris, even if they weren’t on the 40-man roster to help down the stretch.

Why not bring up Franco Aleman, who has made 13 scoreless appearances at Akron, striking out 29 and walking just 3 in 19.1 innings at AA. To be fair, he didn’t have great numbers at Lake County (5.52 ERA) but did whiff 46 batters in 31 innings.

Norris is a 30-year-old journeyman who made six appearances at the big league level this year and walked 11 batters in 10.2 innings coming into last night. Heck, if they didn’t want to go with Aleman, Hunter Gaddis, who opened the season in the starting rotation would have been a better choice.

Francona could’ve turned to Eli Morgan in the 3rd and maybe went with Morris later, but no, it was Norris, just like a game in June against a team not ahead of them in the standings.

We understand the Blue Jays threw two southpaws at the Guardians over the weekend, but instead of playing Bo Naylor, the best catcher on the roster, in one of the games vs. a lefty, both Cam Gallagher and Eric Haase, who at best are replacement level major leaguers both got starts.

We have seen fans angry that Naylor only played in one game in essentially his hometown. That shouldn’t be the argument. He’s clearly the best hitter of the three, and isn’t a terrible defensive catcher. He should be in there most nights.

This shouldn’t be news. The organization told the fan base they weren’t interested in contending on August 1st. And it wasn’t trading Amed Rosario, Josh Bell, and Aaron Civale that was the main crime, it was not trading for someone to help a bad offense and a struggling bullpen.

A sweep could have cut the Minnesota lead to three games, heck, they could still walk out of the Twin Cities down five. But we don’t think that was a major consideration.

Fans can’t want something more that the organization does.

Guardians Deflecting On True Problems

We are not a psychologist or even an amateur one, but it seems like the people connected with the Cleveland Guardians are deflecting.

We have heard over the past few days that the reasons the Guards have struggled this season are the injuries to the starting rotation and the overall youth of the roster.

We respectfully say those are the easy reasons to point at, but we don’t believe they are true.

First, let’s look at the rotation. Yes, Cleveland is down three starters right now. Triston McKenzie has pretty much been out all season, making just two starts. Cal Quantrill, who soaked up a ton of innings a year ago, is out with a shoulder issue, and has missed roughly seven starts.

Shane Bieber is out with a forearm/elbow issue and has missed his last two starts, and Aaron Civale who is back now, but had to be replaced for about eight turns through the rotation earlier this season.

Blaming this for the Guardians inconsistent play would be valid if the pitchers who replaced the injured starters were not doing the job.

Here are the statistics for the primary starters who have filled in for those who have missed time on the injured list:

Tanner Bibee: 89.2 IP, 3.11 ERA, 91Ks, 31 BB in 16 starts
Logan Allen: 80.1 IP, 3.70 ERA, 80Ks, 28 BB in 15 starts
Gavin Williams: 33.2 IP, 3.74 ERA, 26Ks, 15 BB in 6 starts
Peyton Battenfield (as a starter): 32.2 IP, 4.68 ERA, 25 Ks, 8 BB in 6 starts

While perhaps Bieber and McKenzie might have done better, unless they were having a Cy Young type of year, it wouldn’t be greatly improved.

No, the pitching woes have more to do with the failure of the bullpen, particularly in the 8th inning, where the Guardians have struggled to get the game to Emmanuel Clase. Most of the relievers haven’t pitched as well as they did in 2022, which is what happens often to bullpens.

As for the youth of the team, the most disappointing members of the current roster in terms of offense were both veterans, Myles Straw and the recently dealt Amed Rosario. The only rookies the Guards have really used in high volume this season are Will Brennan and Bo Naylor.

We wish Brennan would get better plate discipline (40 Ks, 10 walks), but most fans would rather see Brennan move to centerfield in place of Straw. As for Naylor, the reason he was brought up was the terrible play of free agent Mike Zunino, and the rookie catcher has already hit one more homer and drove in as many runs as Zunino.

Straw is a great defender, but he and Rosario are among the worst offensive players in the game. And if the Guardians wanted to improve their run scoring ability, it would seem the easiest way to do it would be to change the roles of these two players.

There is no question the Guardians have been disappointing to date in 2023 coming off a division title last year. It seems like the organization is trying to put the blame in other places.

We are curious as to why.

Hopefully Bieber Injury Doesn’t Deter Moves At Deadline

The Cleveland Guardians didn’t exactly provide a lot of good news for their fans coming out of the All-Star break.

First came the news that Shane Bieber is experiencing some soreness in his right forearm and was placed on the injured list yesterday. At the very least, the former Cy Young Award winner will miss two starts.

And then the bullpen was mollywhopped by Texas in the opening game of the three game series after Aaron Civale gave Cleveland five innings. The curious thing was he was removed after throwing just 79 pitches.

The bigger news is Bieber, obviously, since the rotation is already without Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill. Yes, the rookies, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen have done yeoman’s work so far this season, but as everyone reminds us, they will all be on innings restrictions this season.

We know many people will say this is a sign that the team should be sellers at the upcoming trade deadline, but isn’t the biggest potential trade chip the Guardians have Bieber?

Our fear is that Bieber’s injury will prevent the front office from making a move to help this year’s team, which is still just a game and a half out of first place in the AL Central Division.

Standing pat would be a terrible idea.

First, and this has nothing to do with the team on the field, but attendance is up at Progressive Field, and we fear doing nothing to improve the roster will damper any excitement created during the year.

The other issue is the organization’s bloated situation in the middle infield. Cleveland continues to use free agent to be Amed Rosario at shortstop, with Tyler Freeman and Gabriel Arias still on the big league roster and Brayan Rocchio in AAA.

They haven’t really found out much about any of those players, with perhaps the exception of Arias, who has a whopping total of 154 plate appearances this season. By the way, we agree that’s not enough.

At some point, they have to convert some of these players into pieces that can help the big club win some games.

Down three starters, why not move some pieces for a pitcher who can provide some quality innings down the stretch. They could use that even if Bieber is going to be back sooner than later.

A year ago, the Guardians had one of the top farm systems in baseball, but outside of last year’s first round pick OF Chase DeLauter and Rocchio, most of their prize prospects have graduated.

Southpaw Joey Cantillo is another top prospect, and he may be here soon if the injuries on the staff continue.

In the past week, Baseball Prospectus put out their mid-season top 50 prospects plus 10 other players. No Guardian was listed. Last season, the same publication had four Cleveland farmhands listed, including Bibee and Williams. Daniel Espino and George Valera were the others.

Prospects lose their value quickly in baseball. Valera was looked upon as a big time power bat, and he still may be, but he’s hitting .187 (545 OPS) at AAA, and in his time at the highest level of the minors over the past two seasons, his OPS is 698.

The next two weeks before the trade deadline will be key. If the Guardians continue to hang in the divisional race, will the front office help out the current roster?

Or will they point toward 2024. We aren’t asking the organization to move players like Williams, Bibee, and Allen. But they have some assets they can move. Now is the time.

Trading Bieber Might Be Inevitable, But There Are Consequences.

In a recent edition of The Plain Dealer, Terry Pluto wrote about why the Guardians need to trade pitcher Shane Bieber.

We understand that Pluto has good sources within the organization and when he writes about something, there is a pretty good likelihood that it is going to happen.

However, we could not disagree more with a Bieber deal unless one thing comes back in return, or is acquired in a separate deal, and that is a veteran starting pitcher to replace the former Cy Young Award winner.

We understand Bieber is not going to sign a long term contract here, so from that standpoint, the Guardians should not lose him in free agency, so a trade will be coming. We simply would wait until the off-season.

As we write this, the Cleveland Guardians lead the American League Central Division standings by a half game and despite all the jokes about the division, they are only 3-1/2 games out of a wild card spot.

It is pretty cavalier of an organization who hasn’t won a World Series in 75 years to toss away a chance to get in the playoffs, which they would likely be doing unless they don’t get another starter to replace their ace.

Cleveland is currently down two starters in Triston McKenzie (elbow) and Cal Quantrill (shoulder) and have three rookies in the rotation that they are managing innings with: Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams.

Bibee pitched 132 innings last year in A/AA, so conventional wisdom says the front office would like to keep him around 152 this year. He’s at 85. Allen threw the same number last season, and he’s currently at 79 in ’23.

Williams pitched 115 innings in 2022, so his limit is probably around 135 and he’s thrown 79 to date this season.

By the way, Bieber is currently third in the AL in innings pitched and by the time he is done pitching today, he will either be second or first. And the Guardians need someone to soak up innings.

Despite complaints about reduced velocity, Bieber is still a pretty effective starting pitcher. He’s allowed just 104 hits in the 110.1 innings he has thrown and has fanned 89 batters vs. just 33 walks. His ERA is 3.66.

If they don’t get a proven starter in another trade or one in a deal involving Bieber, just who is going to pitch for the Guardians after they trade him? Oh yes, they could also bring up another rookie in Joey Cantillo, who is pitching in the Futures Game this weekend, but he would be under the same innings restrictions.

And does anyone really want to see Daniel Norris taking the mound every fifth day for a team trying to get a post-season berth?

One issue though, Cleveland hasn’t traded for an established starting pitcher since Derek Lowe in 2012.

Unless this is going to be a move, like the trades of Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger, where the Guardians are going to kick the can down the road again. Besides the 75 years without a title thing, it’s a bold strategy for a team that won 92 games a year ago and their best player, who committed to the franchise, is 30 years old.

Another factor is how it plays in the clubhouse if they trade their best pitcher and don’t replace him. At some point, it has to wear on players when the front office keeps pointing toward next season.

That’s only if they don’t get someone who can be a relative facsimile of Bieber in terms of pitching a lot of effective innings. We know trading Bieber at some point is inevitable, but doing it while the Guardians very much have a chance to make the post-season seems to ring hollow to us.