A 1-0 Lead And More Thoughts On The Guardians/Tigers Series

We were concerned about the Cleveland Guardians’ offense coming into the American League Division Series against the Detroit Tigers, but they showed us at least in the first inning yesterday.

The first five Guards reached base and all scored as a result of an error, Josh Naylor’s single and Lane Thomas’ three run homer. A 5-0 lead in the first? How sweet was that.

We felt going into the series that Steven Vogt might only need four innings out of his starters, and indeed, Tanner Bibee gave him 4-2/3 frames before giving up a single to Parker Meadows with two out, and the skipper went to the bullpen.

And at least in game one, the relievers were as dominant as they were in the regular season, covering 4.1 innings without allowing a hit.

Cade Smith looked like he did in his big-league debut, striking out all four hitters he faced and Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, and of course, Emmanuel Clase each threw an inning to give the Guardians a 1-0 lead in the series.

Another thought we had about this series is it reminds us of when the Indians took on Boston in the late 90’s, and the Red Sox’ pitching staff was led by Pedro Martinez. Martinez would pitch twice in the series, and you had the feeling Cleveland had to win any game the Hall of Famer would pitch.

Of course, we are referring to the likely Cy Young Award winner this year in the AL, Tarik Skubal. The left-hander will pitch in game two and game five if the series goes on that long.

Skubal isn’t quite Martinez, but he did go 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 192 frames. He hasn’t allowed more than a run in a start since September 6th against Oakland when he allowed two runs on nine hits in 5.2 innings.

Cleveland hitters will have their work carved out for them tomorrow at Progressive Field, particularly if the sun is shining and the late afternoon shadows will descend on the diamond.

The announcement of the roster for this series also caused some eyebrow raising. Although it wasn’t a surprise Nick Sandlin was left off the roster because of his propensity to give up home runs, and Ben Lively didn’t make it because the Guards only need three starters, it is a bit of shock that Alex Cobb will start game three.

Cobb hasn’t pitched in a game since September 1st due to fingernail and blister issues, and if Cleveland loses game two, you are giving him the ball in a pivotal game. Again, we know the Guardians only need three or four innings from a starter, and they will have Gavin Williams and/or Joey Cantillo to back him up, but it’s a bit head scratching.

We have always thought the even numbered games in a short series were most important until you get to the last contest, and tomorrow’s game is no different. If the Guardians can beat Skubal, they have command of the series. We aren’t saying it is won because we remember what happened in 2017.

The pressure will be on starter Matthew Boyd, a former Tiger, to keep the Detroit offense in check and either give the Guardians’ bats a chance to scrape out a run or two or get Skubal out of the game early by making him throw a lot of pitches.

With the off day again on Tuesday, no doubt Vogt will go to his bullpen early again.

All yesterday’s win means is the Guardians will not get swept and there will be two games in Detroit. We would be surprised if the Cleveland bats had another outburst like in game one.

Guardians And Their Incredible Bullpen Head To October

As the Beatles once said, it was a “Long and Winding Road” for the Cleveland Guardians in 2024. They rolled to a 38-19 start through the end of May, and looked to be on a path to 100+ victories.

But starting in June, the offense sputtered and over the next three months, Steven Vogt’s squad went 39-40 in the three summer months, through August. And then when the Kansas City Royals were breathing down their backs, they turned it on going 13-7 to date in September.

In the past few years, the American League Central Division was baseball’s poor stepchild, the weakest division in the sport. However, this season, it looks like three teams will make the post-season party, and in the next few days, the Guards will clinch a bye right to the best-of-five Division Series, where they will have home field advantage.

The offense is too dependent on Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and prior to the All-Star break, Steven Kwan, although if Kyle Manzardo can maintain what he is doing through the playoffs, it would go a long way.

But the Guardians have depended on their bullpen all year long, led by the sports’ best closer in Emmanuel Clase, a Cy Young Award candidate. He likely will not win, but he probably will finish second.

When Cleveland won the division title in 2022, Clase was incredible, going 3-4 with 42 saves and a 1.36 ERA, allowing just 43 hits in 72.2 innings.

He’s been better this year, saving 46 games with a 0.63 ERA, allowing just 37 hits in 71.1 innings.

And he’s backed by a pair of relievers having equally dominant years in rookie Cade Smith (1.96 ERA, 100 strikeouts in 73.1 IP) and Hunter Gaddis (1.53 ERA, 39 hits allowed in 70.2 IP).

Fox analyst John Smoltz said a few months ago that when you play the Guardians, you are essentially playing a five inning game. That’s how good those relievers have been.

What’s even more incredible is that in the past few weeks, we’ve seen even more dominance, as Tim Herrin (1.90 ERA, 63 Ks in 61.1 IP) and now recently called up Andrew Walters, drafted just last year, who has provided five appearances and has yet to allow a hit.

Just this week, the Guardians have also had great outings from Eli Morgan in the extra inning win over Minnesota, and Erik Sabrowski, called up at the end of August and saved Friday’s win over St. Louis with 2.1 scoreless innings.

Could Vogt need just four innings from a starting pitcher in the playoffs? That will be interesting to watch. Remember, Joe Torre and Terry Francona revolutionized relief pitching usage in the post-season by asking their primary relievers to get one more out, go 1.1 IP instead of just three outs.

The emergence of Herrin and Walters could really shorten the game for Cleveland.

We feared all season the lack of innings provided by the starting rotation this season would take a toll on the relief corps by August and September. So far, the bullpen might be even better down the stretch because of Herrin, the additions of Walters and Sabrowski, and the way Morgan has pitched.

He had problems with the gopher ball before this season, allowing 19 dingers over the past two season, but this year, he’s taken care of that issue to date, giving up just two long balls.

This is a contrast from Nick Sandlin, who has allowed 12 homers this year and 24 over the past two campaigns. Could he lose his spot on the playoff roster because of it?

Congratulations to the Central Division champs! Since the wild card era started in 1995, they’ve won 12 division titles, an incredible run.

One of these years, they are going to cash in with a World Series win. Could the bullpen make that year this year?

Guards Are Winning. Doesn’t Mean There Aren’t Worries.

The Cleveland Guardians have one of the best records in baseball. It depends on the day, but there are times they are the game’s winningest team, but they are in the conversation with the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, and Los Angeles Dodgers.

On the other hand, they are just two games ahead of Minnesota and four ahead of Kansas City in the AL Central, and the schedule is a gauntlet through the end of the year. On this trip alone they play the NL Central leaders in Milwaukee and the Yanks.

Right after Labor Day, they make their last extended road trip of the season, with visits to Kansas City and Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers.

The point is, even with all the success they have achieved this season, there is some worry as to what happens over the next six weeks.

We have been concerned about the starting pitching all season long, and although Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb both pitched well in their last start, it’s still a worry, mostly because they simply don’t pitch enough innings.

Neither of the veterans was able to finish six innings, which isn’t a rarity for the rotation. The last time a Guardians’ starter went six innings was Gavin Williams last Saturday against the Twins, the game that broke the seven-game losing streak.

Since the All-Star break, a period of 27 games (1/6th of a season), Cleveland pitchers have completed six innings just three times. The last game a Guards’ starter went seven? The last game we could find was May 10th, when Carlos Carrasco went that long vs. the White Sox.

We know starters aren’t expected to go nine innings anymore, but pitching six shouldn’t be an anomaly. Yes, the pitching staff ranks 2nd in the AL in ERA, but the reason for that is the bullpen, and right now, Steven Vogt is down to three guys are haven’t started to leak oil–Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and of course, Emmanuel Clase.

Even getting six innings consistently out of a starter is a dream right now.

The other reason for concern is the offense. While pitching wins in the playoffs, you have to score runs in the regular season, and of the teams competing for the league’s best record and in the Central Division, the Guards have scored the least amount of runs.

Right now, the Guardians have the opposite of a top to bottom lineup. Among players with over 150 plate appearances, they have four hitters with above average OPS: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan, and David Fry.

Two of those hitters, Kwan and Fry, have been slumping since the Midsummer Classic.

Kwan had a .352 batting average and 920 OPS in the first half and had us dreaming of the first Cleveland batting champ since Bobby Avila in 1954. So far in the second half, he’s hitting .224 (.291 on base vs. .407 prior) and 646 OPS.

He seems to be hitting a lot of fly balls now, which could mean he is selling out for power? But a return to the hitter we saw before the All-Star game could be dynamic for the Guards’ offense.

Fry made the American League squad on the basis of an incredible April and May, in which he hit .352 with 8 HR and 27 RBI. Since June 1st, he’s batted .216 with 4 dingers and 15 ribbies. He still is killing lefties, with .301 average and 1047 OPS against southpaws.

He has a 666 OPS vs. RHP but continues to bat 5th when he plays.

The problem for Vogt and the organization is they don’t seem to have a lot of alternatives.

Jhonkensy Noel has provided pop, this week hitting three homers, but in the last three games, he’s 0 for 8 with six whiffs. Lane Thomas has been ineffective since coming over from Washington going 6 for 50 with 21 strikeouts.

Daniel Schneemann in the last 28 days: .156 BA and 220/200/420 splits. Will Brennan has hit since coming back from AAA, but he is what he is, basically a singles hitter that doesn’t walk (301 OBP, 391 slugging).

Can the offense find help? Can they score enough down the stretch, or will it continue to be a huge load on the bullpen?

One of the best records in baseball? Yes. That doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns.

Anatomy Of Bullpen Usage For The Guardians

When the Cleveland Guardians recent five-game winning streak ended on August 3rd with a 7-4 loss to the Orioles, there were quite a few comments on social media (yes, we know) saying Steven Vogt and his staff didn’t really try to win that game.

That’s because when rookie Joey Cantillo left the game after four innings, trailing 3-2, Vogt went with Pedro Avila to pitch 1.2 innings, and Nick Sandlin for a third of an inning to get the Guardians through six innings.

Still losing at that point, Xzavion Curry came on and after a scoreless seventh, he gave up four runs in the eighth and the game was out of reach.

The social media managers couldn’t fathom why Vogt didn’t use one of his better relievers to keep the score at a one-run deficit.

First of all, we are sure when Vogt went to Curry for the 7th, he wanted him to keep the game right there at 3-2. We are doubly sure Curry did not want to give up runs either because his spot on the roster was tenuous at best.

He’s since been DFA’d and picked up by the Miami Marlins.

But to get to the 7th inning on August 3rd, we need to go back to the previous Sunday, when Vogt used his best relievers to score a series win in Philadelphia, a game which coincidentally, Cantillo also started. It was his first big league start.

Cantillo went 3.1 innings and with Kyle Schwarber, who had already hit two bombs off the rookie, coming up, Vogt went to Cade Smith, who struck him out.

That began a busy week for the bullpen. In the subsequent game, Tanner Bibee went six, and with a 7-0 lead, the skipper used Pedro Avila for 1.1, Scott Barlow for 2/3, and Hunter Gaddis to finish it off.

The only eyebrow raiser there was using Gaddis with a then 8-2 lead.

The following day, Gavin Williams shut out Detroit for five, but used 90 pitches in doing so, meaning the ‘pen had to cover four innings. Tim Herrin, Sandlin, Cade Smith, and Emmanuel Clase finished off the game, which until Cleveland scored in the 8th and 9th, was a 2-0 affair.

Following a day off, Cleveland beat Baltimore 10-3, but it was a 5-2 contest heading into the bottom of the 7th. Ben Lively gave the team six frames, so Vogt used Smith, Herrin, and Sandlin to finish.

The next night, Cleveland won 8-4, but it was 2-1 heading into the 5th, and the manager, clearly not totally confident in Carlos Carrasco, pulled him after 4.1, so again Smith was used for 1.2 IP, followed by Barlow (.1), Avila (.2), Gaddis and Clase (each an inning).

That game was on a Friday night, meaning in a six-game span, Smith pitched four times totaling 4.1 innings, while Barlow, Sandlin, Gaddis, Herrin, and Clase were all used three times.

The Guardians’ starters have had trouble eating innings all season long, and if the team is going to get where it wants to go this season, it is incumbent on Vogt and Carl Willis to take care of the relief corps, the strength of the team.

That means, sometimes, when the Guards are trailing the manager has to have “live to see another day” attitude. That means pitching Avila, Eli Morgan, and perhaps Peter Strzelecki in higher leverage situations.

It’s also those pitchers’ opportunity to earn the skipper’s trust. Smith began the year pitching in lower leverage situations, for example.

It does not mean the manager isn’t trying to win, but these guys aren’t Strat-O-Matic cards, you can’t run them out there every day. There will be a time to do just that. It’s called the playoffs.

Hopefully, all of these relievers will still have something in the tank when October comes around.

Guardians Struggles Are On Both Pitching And Offense

The Cleveland Guardians are in a mid-season malaise. Since June 25th, a period of 40 games, Steven Vogt’s crew has gone 17-23. And note that many games is a quarter of the season, so not really a small sample size.

Most teams go through a stretch like this during a season, so it is not a sign that Cleveland isn’t a good team, after all they still have the third best record in the American League, just a game behind the Orioles.

But the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals have gotten hot, trimming what was a nine game lead on that date (June 25th) to 2-1/2 games. Based on the recent past, it would have been crazy to think the Central Division would have three of the five best records in the AL, but here we are.

The Guards put together a five-game winning streak a little over a week ago, beating Philadelphia to end that series, taking two from the Tigers, and then winning the first two vs. Baltimore (yes, the team with the best record). Since then, they’ve lost seven of their last eight.

When your offense and pitching are both failing, you end up with a long losing streak.

Right now, the Guardians are having issues scoring runs. In the last four losses, they haven’t put up more than three runs a game. And it’s tough to win that way.

But the starting pitching woes, which isn’t a recent problem, has reared its ugly head once again. In the seven-game streak, the most innings pitched by a Cleveland starter was the 5.2 hurled by rookie Joey Cantillo.

Here are the innings pitched by starters over these seven games: 4, 4, 5, 5, 4.1, 5.2, 4.2. And for all the people out there who think Vogt is giving away games, you cannot have Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Emmanuel Clase, and the other primary bullpen pitchers covering five innings every game.

Another annoying habit is the lack of shutdown innings from the pitching staff. Every team the Guardians scrape up some offense and get a lead, the pitchers give it right back, and that goes for starters and relievers. Even Smith has done it.

At the trade deadline, although there weren’t many decent starters moved, we felt it was curious to have the Guards’ brass cast their lot with two pitchers who haven’t thrown a big-league inning this year in Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd.

It’s now the 11th of August, and those two moves have netted the Guardians the 4.2 innings thrown by Cobb Friday night.

Meanwhile, Paul Blackburn, who the Mets traded for from Oakland at the deadline has given them two starts of six innings.

Perhaps Cobb and Boyd are mainstays during the last six weeks of the season for Cleveland, but so far, they haven’t cured the biggest problem the Guardians have had in 2024.

And when your rotation is shorthanded, and the reliable hurlers don’t succeed, you have a long losing streak. Cleveland’s rotation was built around Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Ben Lively. Bibee missed a start with shoulder inflammation, and Williams and Lively didn’t pitch well.

What Cleveland needs, despite the hitting issues, is a starting pitcher who will go out and put up zeros. Williams did that for the most part last night. Get a well-pitched game, a game where the pitching staff puts up a “0” after the Guardians score.

It isn’t time to panic, but it is time to turn things around. It’s a big advantage to have one of the two best division winning records once the season ends.

It’s Been Frustrating For Guardians’ Fans At Times, But The Wins Keep Coming

The last month for the Cleveland Guardians has been fascinating to be sure. Prior to last night, the offense has struggled in most games, with a team batting average of .223 and an OPS of 625.

By comparison, here is their OPS for the first three months of the season–April: 719, May: 715, June: 756. It’s a stark drop off to be sure.

Despite this, they are still 12-12 for the month with one game remaining against the Tigers, who Cleveland will have played 10 times by the time the calendar turns to August.

There is no question that a lack of hitting is the most frustrating thing for a fan to watch, and seeing your favorite team being shut out six times in a month certainly heightens fan angst.

We are no exception. Seeing the Guardians getting blanked by Tyler Phillips, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley or a host of Tigers’ relievers drives us crazy too.

However, the amazing bullpen has allowed Steven Vogt’s squad to tread water, to not go into a period where they lose 15 of 20 games because the offense cannot produce runs.

That is truly remarkable.

Again, we get the frustration level. We feel it as well. But the Guardians still have the best record in the American League and the second-best record in baseball at 63-42.

Since the all-star break, Cleveland has won games 5-4, 2-1, 3-1, and 4-3. Before the Mid-Summer Classic, the won back-to-back games against the Giants by identical 5-4 scores. They scored four runs in a three-game series in Tampa and managed to win one of the contests.

They are 7-3 in one-run games during July, meaning in games not decided by a single tally, they are 4-8. This means many of their games are either nail biters or ones a viewer can watch something else after the fifth inning.

It is true that many of the top teams in the AL have also been going through a tough spell, the Orioles and Mariners are 9-12 in July, the Yankees are 8-13. Boston is 11-10, but have lost seven of their last nine.

The Guards, who have been one of the highest scoring teams in the league over the first three months of the season, are now sitting in the middle of the pack, seventh, and are now behind their division rivals, Minnesota and Kansas City in generating runs.

And frankly, the ballclub needs Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, and Josh Naylor to produce first and foremost.

Before last night’s performance, Ramirez had a 632 OPS with just a single home run and just six extra base hits and the same number of RBIs for the month. Naylor has only two dingers and an OPS of 665 and just five non-singles, while Kwan’s numbers aren’t bad, he has come down from the unworldly pace he was at, with a .275 batting average and 730 OPS since July 1st.

It is quite evident the real star of this Guardians’ team is the bullpen. When Cleveland has the lead after six innings (and sometimes less), Cade Smith, Scott Barlow, Hunter Gaddis, and the game’s best closer, Emmanuel Clase will lock it down.

That doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be nice to ease the workload of those guys though. It would bode well for the rest of the year and the post-season (fingers crossed) if the starting rotation picked up more of the load.

Those guys have kept this team out of long losing streaks, and despite the frustration of watching a team struggle to score runs, the Guardians are holding their own in the pennant chase.

The Continued Struggles Of The Guardians’ Starters

Last night was exactly what the doctor ordered for the Cleveland Guardians in terms of starting pitching. Tanner Bibee gave Steven Vogt six scoreless innings, great effectiveness and some decent length.

We know the rotation has been the weakness of the 2024 Guardians thus far. It is the only position on the squad where Cleveland ranks last in the American League in WAR (wins above replacement).

The last pitcher who went six frames in a game was Logan Allen on June 7th vs. Miami. Previous to Allen, it was Bibee, who went 6.1 innings on May 31st.

So, in the month of June, the Guardians have had exactly two outings where the starting pitcher completed six innings. Now, we understand the game has changed recently, but having your bullpen have to cover more than 12 outs on a nightly basis is not something usually equated with success throughout a six month season.

There were a few outings where Vogt yanked his starter in the sixth and perhaps, he didn’t have to. The starter could have got the last out of the inning.

We get it. When your bullpen has been as great as the Guardians’ have this season, it is tempting to get them in the game and have a guy like Sam Hentges, Tim Herrin, or Cade Smith overmatch the next hitter to end the inning.

We know the front office is aware of the problem, and we are also it is difficult to make a deal for a starter at this point. We also know there are a lot of teams looking for starting pitching, so it won’t be easy for Cleveland to pull off a deal.

Everyone is waiting for Gavin Williams to be back, but in his last outing in AAA, he threw 53 pitches, making over 30 in the second inning where he only recorded two outs before being removed.

So, it appears it will be a while before he can join the rotation.

Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco and Triston McKenzie have to be a concern. Carrasco missed a couple of starts with a spasm in his neck, and since his return, his longest outing was five innings last Saturday, and he only went five because the Guards were trailing 5-0 and Vogt didn’t want to overexpose his relief corps.

He’s made just two starts where he went at least six innings, one against the Angels and the other vs. the White Sox. He has a 5.80 ERA for the year, and last year, it was 6.80 for the Mets.

McKenzie has had issues with the two things pitchers cannot do and still be effective, and that is walk people and give up home runs. When we were young, we used to hear about guys who gave up the long ball, but since they didn’t walk people, most of the dingers were solo shots.

McKenzie leads the AL in walks and is second in the Junior Circuit in giving up homers with 15. Thankfully, he doesn’t give up a lot of hits besides the home runs.

Perhaps Pedro Avila should get a shot. He started in San Diego last year and has been okay so far for the Guardians (2.60 ERA, 31 K’s in 26.2 innings). Or why not see what Connor Gillispie can do?

He has a 4.55 ERA at AAA, allowing 62 hits in 63.1 innings with 64 strikeouts. His last few outings have been much better than that. Maybe he can get into or complete six innings of a Major League game?

McKenzie and Carrasco’s struggles put more pressure on Bibee, Allen, and Ben Lively to pitch deeper into games.

The Guardians have a great thing going, sitting at 45-26 on the season. That doesn’t mean they are complacent. However, the more that duo struggles, the more of a burden they put on the relievers.

Moving Quantrill Is Odd, Getting Barlow Is Good

Former Guardians’ manager Terry Francona, and yes, it’s weird to write that, used to say that when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more. Apparently, Cleveland is no subscribing to that adage with one of their first off-season moves.

In order to add rookies Daniel Espino and Cade Smith to the 40-man roster, the Guardians designated Cal Quantrill for assignment.

Quantrill will likely never be in the conversation for a Cy Young Award, but he is a reliable starting pitcher.

The Guards received minor league catcher Kody Huff from Colorado, he played in A ball last season. Team president Chris Antonetti said the Guardians didn’t think Quantrill was worth the likely $6 million he would receive in arbitration, and in a vacuum, he’s probably right.

However, sometimes there is hidden value. With Shane Bieber (who may be traded) and Triston McKenzie coming off injuries, if they aren’t ready, the starting rotation right now looks like Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, and a mixture of Hunter Gaddis, rookie Joey Cantillo, Xzavion Curry, and perhaps Cody Morris.

That would be three second-year starters, who have no proven track record in the bigs, and a bunch of arms without a track record in the majors.

Wouldn’t Quantrill, a proven big-league starter have some value to Cleveland? He has made 94 big league starts, pitching to a 4.06 ERA in those outings.

If you were a contending club, or one who says they are, you would want pitchers who you know can give you a decent outing. And as much as we like Bibee, Williams, and Allen, we don’t know if they will pitch as well in 2024.

So, if we were Antonetti and Mike Chernoff, we’d be looking for an established starting pitcher. Our philosophy as a GM would be to guard against things as best you can if things go wrong. With the injuries to Bieber and McKenzie, and depending on second-year players, we think a lot could go wrong.

Cleveland did make another trade on Friday, getting reliever Scott Barlow from San Diego for Enyel De Los Santos.

De Los Santos had two solid years here, pitching in 120 games with a 3.18 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 119 innings, but seemed more comfortable in a sixth or seventh inning role. His ERA is almost a run higher in the 8th than in the 7th in his career.

Barlow has closing experience, saving 53 games with the Royals from 2021 to 2023, including 13 last year before being dealt to the Padres. He’s also a strikeout pitcher, fanning 393 hitters in 332 innings for his career.

He should give Emmanuel Clase some relief at times, because he seemed to be the only reliable alternative the team had in ’23.

And he would also seem to move Trevor Stephan, who struggled mightily in the second half last year into more of a 7th inning role.

The Guardians also signed Ramon Laureano to a one-year deal, after he hit .243/.342/.382/724 after being released by Oakland. He also has a career 791 OPS vs. lefties since coming to the major leagues.

They paid Laureano a reported $5.1 million next year, and that makes us wonder about Myles Straw’s future. Laureano can play CF and RF, and is a good defensive outfielder. It’s hard to see Cleveland paying Straw $4.9 million (and it escalates in ’25 and ’26) and Laureano.

Just something to keep an eye on and the hot stove season moves on.