Lindor and Tribe In A Unique Situation

Now that the hot stove league has started, you can’t watch or listen to shows about baseball without people talking about the Cleveland Indians trading all star shortstop Francisco Lindor.

We, of course, have stated many times that we would not be in favor of dealing the Indians’ face of the franchise, preferring to sign one of the best players in the game to a long term contract.

We were wondering how many other star players were traded at age 25 while being one of the best players in the game?

We did come up with a few, although most aren’t as good as the Indians shortstop, and we wanted to see what kind of return the player brought back. Mostly because most fans think the Indians would get three future all-stars in return.

The first case is Christian Yelich, who was dealt by Miami in 2017 after his year 25 season. Yelich hit .282 with an 807 OPS, and was signed through 2021 by the Marlins, so he differs from Lindor in that he wasn’t coming up on free agency.

The top prospect Miami received was Lewis Brinson, who was Baseball America’s 16th ranked prospect at the time. To date, Brinson has been a massive dud, with a career 531 OPS in around 700 at bats.

The best player Miami received right now has been pitcher Jordan Yamamoto, who was never a top 100 prospect. He was 4-5 with a 4.45 ERA in 15 starts last year.

Not a big return for a player who was MVP in the National League in 2018 and finished second last season.

Manny Machado was traded at age 25, but he was moved at the trade deadline before his winter of free agency, so it’s not a good comparison. His value was lowered because the team dealing for him was getting him for a half season.

The only player moved from the Dodgers to Baltimore in the deal that has reached the major leagues yet is Breyic Valera (47 at bats with Toronto). Valera has gone from Baltimore to San Francisco to New York to Toronto.

Andrelton Simmons was traded following his age 25 season after hitting .265 (660 OPS). He isn’t anywhere near the offensive player Lindor is, but in the deal sending him from Atlanta to Los Angeles (AL), the best player the Braves received thus far has been Sean Newcomb (22-21, 3.87 ERA), who pitched out of the bullpen for the NL East champs this season.

The reason it is very difficult to find comps to this situation is most teams aren’t looking to trade 25 year old superstars with two years left on their contract, they are looking to sign them long term.

It is a different situation if Lindor and his agent have told the front office they won’t sign with the Indians under any circumstances, but we don’t believe that is the case.

We wanted to point out, however, in reality, no team is going to empty out their farm system for Lindor, and if they do, there’s no guarantee that the top prospects will turn out to be very good to great major league players.

Recently, you had the Bryce Harper (went to free agency) and Machado situations. Yes, Washington won the World Series this season, but it wasn’t due to what they received for Harper.

And the Orioles appear to have received 20 cents on the dollar for Machado.

The Red Sox are said to be considering a Mookie Betts deal, but part of that is the luxury tax threshold and the other big contracts Boston has. If J.D. Martinez had opted out of his deal for 2020, Boston may not be looking to move Betts.

Yes, Lindor will become one of the highest paid players in the game. So be it. He’s one of the best players in the game.

It may be a long time before another team is in this situation again.

More On The Lindor Scenario…

It has already started.

Soon after the New York Yankees lost the American League Championship Series, a column in the New York Post advocated the Yankees should try and get Francisco Lindor from the Cleveland Indians.

A week later, it was reported the Los Angeles Dodgers have interest in the four time all star.

And all over northeast Ohio, it is becoming a weekly debate. Should the Tribe deal Lindor now, so his new team has him for two seasons, therefore giving up more for him, or should the Indians go into the season with their best player, and try to win the World Series in 2020?

The possibility of signing Lindor is not even considered, and we have debated that point enough over the past year. To summarize, that is ludicrous.

Most fans and media alike seem to think dealing Lindor for three or four “stud” minor league prospects would enable the Tribe to just keep on winning year in and year out.

Because, after all, no super prospect ever flames out once they reach the big league level, nor do they ever become just average major league players.

And the Washington Nationals just showed you can let your superstar player go and still win, right? That, of course, ignores the fact the Nats had Juan Soto up last year at 19 years old, and he is probably better than Bryce Harper, who signed with the Phillies.

We will let you in on another secret…Lindor is a better player than the much hyped and ballyhooed Harper. Although Harper won the NL MVP in 2015 at age 22, that’s his only top 10 finish.

Lindor has three top 10 finishes in the American League, and most rankings have Lindor in the top 10 of all major league players, while Harper falls in between 11 and 20.

It is difficult to believe that Frankie has only played four full seasons with the Indians, so if he is moved this winter, that’s all Cleveland fans get.

It makes you think about the odd decision to leave the shortstop in the minor leagues the first half of the ’15 season was a pretty terrible one, no?

Especially when you would deal him before his ages 27-29 seasons, the time when a player is truly in his prime. The Indians would not get the benefit of those years.

There is a reason that Sandy Alomar Jr., Jim Thome, and Omar Vizquel are still revered by Indians’ fans almost 20 years after they began the career here.

Alomar spent 11 seasons here (1990-2000), while Vizquel was here for the same amount of time (1994-2004), and although Thome had some cups of coffee here before the Indians became contenders, he was a regular from 1994 through 2002.

That’s why we always say (and feel) if Lindor can play here for 10 years, he will be considered the greatest everyday player in franchise history. And there should be value in that for the teams’ owners.

Now, if Lindor says he will not consider a long term deal here, then this is all moot. The Tribe should keep him this year and move him afterwards, unless they get players who can help this season.

They cannot take a step backwards and go into a rebuilding mode.

We do believe Lindor would like to stay, but he wants to be paid like one of the game’s best players. There shouldn’t be an issue with that, especially because a five year extension would keep him here through age 30, and he should still be putting up excellent numbers.

If the Indians can get three highly ranked prospects and they all reach their potential, that would be great, correct? However, what if the prospects turn out to be average or busts?

No one thinks about that possibility.

Tribe Can And Should Sign Lindor

The recent signings of Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, and Bryce Harper have brought the fate of Francisco Lindor into the minds of many Cleveland Indians fans.

What are the chances the Tribe ownership will sign the shortstop to a long term deal before he becomes a free agent in 2021?

Most believe there is no chance because the Indians are a small to mid market, and they “couldn’t possibly” dedicate that large of a percentage of the big league payroll to one player.

We consider those people to be supporters of the “Dolan Cap”.

First of all, there is no salary cap in baseball, meaning the Indians’ ownership could spend whatever they want. And remember, there will be a financial windfall from the new network television deal with Fox starting in 2022, the year after Lindor’s free agency.

Second, notice the first two signings at the beginning of this piece.

Currently, Forbes Magazine ranks the Padres, who signed Machado, as the 17th most valuable franchise in the sport. The Rockies, who kept their superstar in Arenado long term (a 7 year deal) is 23rd, one spot ahead of…the Cleveland Indians.

So, if these two mid to small market teams can sign great players, the Indians can too.

Arenado is particularly comparable to Lindor, in that both are better than Machado and Harper, who signed with the Phillies.

The Rockies third baseman ranked 3rd in MLB Network’s listing of the 100 best players in the game right now, while Lindor was 4th. For the record, Machado was 14th and Harper 15th.

Arenado is 27 years old, meaning Colorado signed him through his 34th birthday. Lindor is 25 years, so a similar length deal (7 or 8 years) would keep him in a Cleveland uniform through age 33, at which time he should still be a productive player if he stays healthy.

Which brings us to another argument we hear. This is NOT the same situation as Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera. Pujols was 32 when he signed his 10 year contract with the Angels. The team knew they would be paying big money for declining years.

Likewise, the Tigers inked Cabrera to an eight year deal when he was 32 years old. They’ve seen one very good year thus far, and two injury plagued campaigns.

If the Tribe would sign their shortstop after this season to a seven or eight year deal, they’d be getting his prime years (27-29) and he would be 33 or 34 years old at the end. While he most likely won’t be the Lindor we’ve seen to date at those ages, we would go out on a limb and say he would still be a very productive player.

We have advocated this for a long time, not only can the Indians keep Lindor long term, they should keep him long term. He is arguably the greatest position player in the history of the franchise, which of course, goes back to 1901.

The last time the Indians has a player this good at that age was Manny Ramirez, who departed after his age 28 season. The Dolans did make a big time offer to the right-handed slugger, only to be aced out by the Red Sox in the end.

Here are the seasons Ramirez put up in his first five years in Boston:

2001: 1014 OPS, 41 HR, 125 RBI, .306 batting average
2002: 1097 OPS, 33 HR, 107 RBI, .349 (batting title)
2003: 1014 OPS, 37 HR, 104 RBI, .325
2004: 1009 OPS, 39 HR, 130 RBI, .308
2005: 982 OPS, 45 HR, 144 RBI, .292

At the time of his departure, Ramirez had two top 10 MVP finishes. Lindor already has three.

The point is, Lindor is better than anyone who has worn a Cleveland uniform in the free agent era.

And the Indians have some very good prospects in the low minors too. While there is more risk in projecting those players, if they progress, they should hit Progressive Field around 2021-22, providing low cost talent just in time to pay big money to a superstar player.

Don’t forget Lindor’s appeal to the fan base either. It has been reported that after the home opener and the Yankees’ series at Progressive Field, the next two highest advance ticket sales are Lindor giveaway days.

Of course, Lindor and his agent still make the decision, but we say the Tribe front office should make an offer he cannot refuse.

Frankie Lindor presents the Dolan family with a huge dilemma. Not signing him will seal their fate as an ownership that didn’t take the extra step needed to bringing a World Series title to this area.

Sign Lindor This Winter? Don’t Hold Your Breath

We said this many times throughout this past baseball season, perhaps the best thing about the Cleveland Indians is that their two best players are 25 and under in Jose Ramirez (25) and Francisco Lindor, who just turned 24 a couple of weeks ago.

Lindor, who has two straight top ten finishes in the American League MVP voting at his young age, is under the Tribe’s control through the 2021 season, giving him four more full seasons with the Indians.

The Cleveland front office would undoubtedly like to sign their shortstop to a long term deal to keep him with his home ballpark being Progressive Field for the foreseeable future, but Lindor seems to understand his value gets higher every season, particularly if he keeps performing like he has.

At his age, he is getting nothing but better, and even with a slump last year in May and June, the switch-hitting Lindor still had a career high 842 OPS, mostly due to a career high .505 slugging percentage.

He had 81 extra base hits, made his second All Star team, and won his first Silver Slugger Award, in addition to being a finalist for the Gold Glove at short.

We are sure Lindor won’t sign this off-season either as he will likely wait until Bryce Harper’s free agency is resolved next off-season.

It has been said Harper could become the sports’ first $400 million player. If he gets that amount, you’d have to think Lindor will get close to that amount, if not exceed it.

Granted when Harper finished his third big league season, he was just 21 years old, two years younger than Lindor was when last season ended.

In those first three seasons, the highest finish in the MVP voting for Harper was 30th in his rookie season. He won the award the following season, his fourth year, but hasn’t been in the top ten since.

Harper and Mike Trout might be the faces of baseball, but Lindor’s definitely on a level right below those two. His personality and the obvious joy he plays with are things MLB should market, and will as he continues to get better as a player.

We made the point last off-season that if Lindor plays 10 years in an Indians’ uniform, he will be the greatest position player in franchise history. So, the stakes to keep him with the Tribe long term are very high.

In our lifetime, we haven’t had that player like George Brett, Derek Jeter, Tony Gwynn for this franchise. A truly great player who plays their entire career in Cleveland.

Remember that when Jim Thome goes into the Hall of Fame, perhaps next summer, he will be the first player to spend the majority of his career with the Indians to go into the Hall since Lou Boudreau. He was inducted in 1971!

Despite all the great players who were here in the 90’s: Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, Omar Vizquel, Thome, none of them can claim to have never worn another uniform.

We understand that’s not the way the sport is now, but wouldn’t it be nice if Frankie Lindor was that guy for our team.

We are sure the Dolan family, Chris Antonetti, and GM Mike Chernoff would like it to happen too. Lindor is that kind of player.