Guardians Should Add Another Division Title

It’s finally here. If you are a baseball fan, it’s what you looked forward to since the last out of the World Series. You knew it was getting closer when spring training started, but now it’s here.

Opening Day!

When we were younger, the start of a new season held hope for a Cleveland Indians’ fan in the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s. We thought maybe this year we would catch lightning in a bottle and could get to the World Series.

Of course, that was a young, foolish thought. It wasn’t until 1995 that it happened, and really, despite our criticism at times of the team, they’ve been good more often than not since then.

We think the Guardians will win the AL Central this season, and perhaps last season’s surprising campaign can be the jumping off point for another run of post-season appearances. It’s a very young roster with a very strong farm system.

Besides the catching spot, currently being held by veterans until prospect Bo Naylor is ready, which should happen sometime this summer, the oldest Guardians are perennial MVP Jose Ramirez and newcomer Josh Bell.

Ramirez is simply one of the best players in baseball, and probably the most underrated. Recently, ESPN (yeah, we know) ranked him as the 13th best player in the game, which is ridiculous. There simply aren’t 12 baseball players right now better than Jose Ramirez.

In the last six seasons, he has finished in the top four in the MVP balloting four times and finished sixth in another year. 13th? It shows how little the people who cover baseball at the four letter network know about the game.

If Bell has an average season for him, say 25 HR and 90 RBI, it will lend some thump to a lineup that ranked 14th in the AL in homers last season. Although the Cleveland lineup did a great job producing runs considering the lack of power (6th in the AL in runs), having the ability to put a tally on the board with one swing of the bat helps.

The players to watch are Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan. Can they improve on last year’s numbers? They are 24 and 26 respectively, so they should still be on the upward path of their careers. If they do, they will put up special numbers.

A baseball mantra is a team can’t have enough pitching, and this has been the pillar of the Cleveland organization over the past 10 years. They’ve had three Cy Young Award winners, and one of them, Shane Bieber remains the staff ace.

Triston McKenzie’s injury puts a bit of a damper on the rotation, but if Aaron Civale can stay healthy, that’s a plus. The biggest question mark has to be Zach Plesac, who hasn’t been effective over the last two seasons.

By the middle of the year, hurlers like Gavin Williams (5-4, 1.96 ERA at AA and A) and Tanner Bibee (8-2, 2.17 ERA at AA and A) could be ready to take his spot.

We are particularly bullish on Williams, who has the profile of a workhorse ace at 6’6″ and 255 pounds. He fanned 149 batters in 115 innings last season. Bibee is no slouch in that regard, whiffing 167 hitters in 133 frames.

The bullpen is the most volatile part of any baseball team, but when the back of the ‘pen is anchored by Emmanuel Clase, that’s a reason to feel somewhat comfortable. Over the past two years, Clase has a 1.33 ERA and has allowed only five home runs in 148 appearances. He’s also only walked 26.

We never take for granted a winning baseball team in Cleveland. After 30 years of hoping to find a winning season, this is rather fun.

Guardians’ Roster Pretty Set Starting Camp

When we last saw the Cleveland Guardians, they lost a series deciding fifth game to the New York Yankees in the American League Division Series. They had a 2-1 series lead after a dramatic walk-off win in game 3 but couldn’t finish off the Bronx Bombers.

Still, they were the youngest team in baseball and went farther than anyone expected in the 2022 season.

This weekend, the Guards start a much-anticipated spring training, getting ready for a season which they hope will end with another Central Division title.

While the season could be memorable, this training camp likely will not be. After a major roster turnover last year, the front office and Terry Francona shouldn’t have too many decisions to make, of course, barring injuries.

From our point of view, there are only three decisions that need to be made: Backup catcher, extra infielder, and the last spot in the bullpen, probably a left-hander.

Mike Zunino was signed as a free agent over the winter and will serve as the primary catcher, assuming he is fully recovered from the thoracic outlet surgery on his left (non-throwing) arm done last year. Cleveland would like to have rookie Bo Naylor start at AAA to play everyday at the beginning of the season, so the second catcher on the roster is up in the air.

The team brought in former Royal Cam Gallagher (career OPS 656), Meibry Viloria (556), Zack Collins (623), and still has Bryan Lavastida, who opened last season with the big club.

Viloria and Collins are left-handed hitters which give them a platoon advantage, but with the Guardians’ organizational philosophy, it will come down to who the team trusts the most defensively and in handling the pitching staff.

We believe Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, and Richie Palacios will vie for the two bench spots that are available. We know who the starters are and Will Brennan will likely take one bench spot. Arias played a little outfield at AAA and in winter ball, and Palacios played mostly outfield with the big club (he played three innings at 2B) and being able to play in the dirt and on the grass probably gives them an edge.

Freeman has strictly been an infielder in the minors and we believe the organization is higher on him than the other two long term, and because of that, they may want him to start the year playing everyday at Columbus.

As for the bullpen, it may come down to whether or not the staff wants a reliever who can soak up multiple innings in a game, which would give an edge to a Cody Morris or Konnor Pilkington, or do they want another lefty to team with Sam Hentges?

Many think 26-year-old southpaw Tim Herrin will get a long look. Herrin struck out 101 hitters in 69-1/3 innings last year between Akron and Columbus. He did have a 5.36 ERA in AAA last year, giving up six home runs in 47 innings.

Relievers who walk people and give up home runs don’t have a long shelf life in the big leagues. But Herrin is someone to watch in Arizona. As for Morris, the front office may want him stretched out as a starter in case he is needed in the major league rotation.

The exhibition games start a week from Saturday and some players could get extra opportunities because of the World Baseball Classic. As for that event, our sincere hope is no one from the Guardians gets injured playing in it.

Why Guards Aren’t Dealing Prospects

The Cleveland Guardians won the American League Central Division title last season, winning 92 games. The Cleveland Guardians also have one of the top five farm systems in baseball. Outside of trading Nolan Jones, who probably was no longer one of the system’s top ten prospects, and moving Owen Miller, who spent the entire season on the big-league roster, the Guards haven’t addressed the seeming glut of prospects about to hit Cleveland. It seems that many teams when in the situation the Guardians are in, like to package a number of prospects to get proven big-league talent. Think about what San Diego has done over the past few years. Unfortunately for the Padres, their excessive prospects are having success, but here in Cleveland. Let’s examine the top five prospects in the Guards’ system: pitchers Daniel Espino and Gavin Williams, catcher Bo Naylor, OF George Valera, and SS Brayan Rocchio. Espino, a right-hander and Cleveland’s first round pick in 2019, was injured much of last season throwing only 19 innings, albeit dominating one, fanning 35 hitters. Williams, another righty and also a first rounder in 2021, appears to be the definition of a horse at 6’6″ and 240 pounds. He pitched 115 innings at Lake County and Akron, with a 1.96 ERA and 149 punchouts. Now, the big-league situation comes into play. Shane Bieber, the ace of the staff, is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2024 season. After winning the division, the Guardians aren’t trading him this off-season, but with the dollars spent this winter, it isn’t a reach to see Bieber being moved next winter. It would seem Espino and Williams would be ready then. If Bieber agreed to an extension with the Guardians, maybe the front office would entertain a deal for their top two prospects. We wouldn’t unless the return was substantial. We would be surprised if Naylor opened the season on the big club, but we won’t be shocked if he’s getting regular playing time by the beginning of June. He is the catcher of the future. We feel the same about Rocchio being the shortstop of the future, the heir apparent to Amed Rosario. We believe the organization likes him better than Gabriel Arias or Tyler Freeman, who will likely battle in spring to see who is the reserve infielder. We have been hearing about Valera for years. A left-handed hitter, he has plus power, and has always shown patience at the plate. However, in 2021 between Lake County and Akron, he fanned 88 times with 66 walks. In ’22, with more at bats between Akron and Columbus, he whiffed 145 times with 74 walks. Not bad, but the ratio is much worse. That would make him the most likely candidate to be moved in a trade for big-league talent. The front office is gambling he will make adjustments and take some of the swing-and-miss out of his game, because if the ratio gets worse, so will his ranking as a prospect. Prospects #6 through #10 are: Pitchers Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee, SS Angel Martinez, OF Chase DeLauter, and OF Will Brennan. It’s more likely the Guards would trade someone from this list, but DeLauter hasn’t even played a professional game yet, and Brennan would seem to be insurance for the big club in the outfield. We are firmly NOT in the mindset that all prospects will turn out to be the next Mike Trout. We are just trying to explain what we think is the front office’s reasoning for not packaging a couple of these guys. How many players on the division winners have proven track records? It’s fewer than you think. Perhaps that’s why no deals as of yet.

Guardians Going Free Agent Route Is A Bit Of A Surprise.

The Cleveland Guardians had two big needs heading into the post-season, another power bat and a catcher since Austin Hedges was a free agent.

It is a surprise that Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff filled both via free agency though, signing catcher Mike Zunino to catch, joining Josh Bell who came to the Guardians a week earlier.

Remember, Cleveland values defense and handling pitchers first and foremost from their backstops, and Zunino certainly is very good defensively. With a bat in his hand, think Hedges with a lot more power potential.

When Hedges first arrived in the big leagues with San Diego, he had some pop, hitting 18 homers in his first full year with the Padres, and then 14 in 91 games the following season. In the four years since, Hedges’ high in roundtrippers was 11 in 2019, and his best batting average was .178 with Cleveland in 2021.

Zunino does two things more frequently than the man he replaces: Hit dingers and strikeout. He missed much of last season after shoulder surgery, but since 2017, he belted more than 20 homers three times, including a career-high 33 in 2021. His lifetime slugging percentage is 79 points higher than Hedges.

However, his strikeout to walk ratio per 162 games is 196:39. As a comparison Hedges, who is one of the game’s worst hitters, has a ratio of 148:33. That’s how often Zunino fails to make contact.

We would not be surprised if prized catching prospect Bo Naylor (Guardians’ #3 prospect according to Baseball America) opened the season at AAA and another free agent signee, Meibrys Viloria, starts the year on the Opening Day roster as a left-handed hitting option behind the plate.

Not that Viloria is much of a hitter, he has a career OPS of 553, with a .201 batting average and three homers.

That the Guardians filled their biggest need via free agency means they haven’t addressed the glut of middle infield prospects. Yes, they did move Owen Miller to Milwaukee for a player to be named later or cash to clear a roster spot for Zunino, but they still have Gabriel Arias and Tyler Freeman, who both played in Cleveland for a bit, with Brayan Rocchio (#5 prospect) knocking on the door.

Not to mention what to do with the back end of the starting rotation. We believe Aaron Civale will be the fourth starter behind Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill, but we wouldn’t be shocked if Zach Plesac is moved to make room for say, a Cody Morris.

If a move is made to thin out the prospect glut, what do the Guardians get in return? Younger prospects to guarantee a promising future, or do they someone on the big-league roster and try to upgrade the spot they are dealing from?

So, as a result of the Bell and Zunino additions, not only does Cleveland have a stronger major league roster, but they still have one of the five best farm systems in the sport.

That gives the front office a lot of options as spring training approaches. That’s an awful good position to be in.

Great Year For Guards, But Can’t Stand Pat For ’23

What a remarkable, unexpected season for the Cleveland Guardians. We figured a slightly above .500 season coming into the year, but Terry Francona’s young squad won the Central Division title and advanced to the Division Series by beating Tampa Bay.

Cleveland baseball fans fell in love with this team, the youngest squad in baseball, and we are sure there will be many fans who will want to bring everyone back next year. They were a very likeable team.

However, executives have to think with their heads and not their hearts, and to us, standing pat with this current roster would be the absolute wrong move. Francona himself said the organization needed to build on the success of this group.

We think the catching position has to be upgraded, and we understand the organization values defense and handling the pitching staff above anything else at the position. Austin Hedges is a team leader, and we expect him to be back next year, but it would not be a shock if he shares time with Bo Naylor.

Naylor, a left-handed hitter, batted .263 with an 889 OPS between AA and AAA this season. He belted 21 homers and although he does have some swing and miss in his game (128 K’s), he also takes walks, getting 82 bases on balls.

Hedges does need to be better with a bat in his hands though. His career average is down to .189 (578 OPS). He did hit 43 home runs in a three-year span in San Diego, but with Cleveland has hit just 17 in two seasons.

The Guardians could also use an upgrade at 1B/OF/DH, preferably with a right-handed bat, so Josh Naylor doesn’t have to be exposed to tough southpaws. The Guards simply have to have a better option than Owen Miller at first when Naylor needs a day off.

Really, the team needs to fill the DH role with someone who is capable of playing defensively or get a first baseman and let Naylor be the primary designated hitter.

Even though the Guardians were sixth in the AL in runs scored, the bats struggled in the playoffs, as Cleveland scored just 17 runs in the seven games. They need more power (14th in homers) and although we loved the contact approach, the Guards need to walk more, they ranked just 11th in that category.

It’s easier to mix in a walk rather than have to get three or four hits in a row.

We would also like to see another starting pitcher added to the rotation. Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie are good at the top, and Cal Quantrill is solid, but it might be better if he was the #4 guy, and you had another starter who could strike batters out.

Hopefully, Aaron Civale is healthy and can contribute closer to his 2021 season next year, but it’s two straight years with injury issues for him. And Zach Plesac has the same problem, although his are self-inflicted.

It would also buy another year of development for Gavin Williams, Daniel Espino, Tanner Bibee, Cody Morris, Hunter Gaddis, and Xzavion Curry. The first two or three could be ready to help next season, but you wouldn’t have to depend on that.

With all of the young players the organization used this year, you have to remember there is no track record for some of these guys. There could be drastic dips in performances for some, and big jumps in statistics for others.

The front office should be prepared for that.

It will also be interesting to see what the management does with the farm system and the stacking up of prospects at certain positions.

The future looks bright as Francona pointed out after Tuesday’s game. That makes this winter very interesting for Cleveland baseball fans.