If Guards Want To Move Up, They Need To Score More

There is a logjam for the wild card spots in the American League and the Cleveland Guardians are in the midst of it.

The Seattle Mariners currently hold the sixth spot in the AL with a 51-45 record, and there are six teams within 5 games of them, including Cleveland who is 4.5 out with a 46-49 record.

How jumbled are the standings? If the Guardians win Friday night when they return to action at home against the Athletics, they could be in the #8 spot, able to jump the Royals, Angels, and Twins.

It’s no mystery how they can climb back in the race if they so desire. They have to score runs. They are currently third from the bottom in putting runs on the board, ahead of just the Royals and White Sox.

They are also ninth in ERA, but their team mark of 4.02 is better than the league average of 4.07.

If the Guardians’ front office wants to take care of the offensive problem, they will likely have to make some very difficult decisions.

They would have to take some risks, but since we belong to the “can’t be any worse” mindset, we would be willing to take the chance.

The toughest decision might be what to do with Carlos Santana. Clearly, the organization loves him, he has been traded for once and signed as a free agent since leaving originally after the 2017 season. He has been in the trade rumor mill over the past few weeks.

But really, what will you get for the 39-year-old first baseman? Since June 1st, Santana has batted .189 with 4 HR and 12 RBI. And perhaps what is worse, he has walked just 13 times with 30 strikeouts.

If the front office cannot find a trade partner, will they have the stomach to just release him? The Guardians have to start making the transition to have Kyle Manzardo, who has a much higher OPS than Santana, play first base, and also to look at C.J. Kayfus, who has a 921 OPS at Columbus.

The other obvious choices to upgrade would be at catcher, shortstop, and two of the outfield spots.

We doubt any change is coming behind the plate. The organization values defense and handling pitchers very highly, but even with that, the offense they are getting from the position is ridiculous. It’s getting to the point when Bo Naylor or Austin Hedges takes a walk, it’s a victory.

Angel Martinez has shown some pop lately (slugging .481 over the last month) playing mostly CF, but his 61:9 strikeout to walk ratio doesn’t bode well.

Another option would be to have Nolan Jones, who has hit .267 since June 1st, play more in CF with of course the people’s choice, Chase DeLauter coming up to play some rightfield. Jones has also drawn 13 walks in this period with 26 strikeouts.

Of course, the obstacle there is the health of DeLauter and also Juan Brito, who would provide a better bat than Will Wilson.

As for shortstop, although Brayan Rocchio has hit better since his recall (.257 batting average with a 783 OPS), we would bet when Gabriel Arias is ready, he will take over at that spot.

Of course, they could also move a bullpen arm for some immediate offensive help. In the regular season, you have to score runs to make the playoffs. Improving on the third worst offense in the AL is a necessity if the Guardians are going to climb back in the wild card race.

That is if the front office is interested in doing that.

Prediction For Guardians? We Just Don’t Know…

Today is the real Opening Day for Major League Baseball, and the Cleveland Guardians open their defense of the AL Central Division title against Kansas City. Because of the renovations to Progressive Field, it will be a week and a half before the Guards play in Cleveland.

Can they defend the title and get back to the post-season in 2025? Much like many players on the roster, we say “we just don’t know”.

While the influencers will tell you the Guardians had a solid off-season, we disagree. Their biggest question marks following the season were an offense that was shaky, and ahead of only Detroit among playoff squads in the AL and a starting rotation that had only one proven starter in Tanner Bibee.

During the winter, they traded their second-best home run hitter in Josh Naylor and replaced him with a player who was not good vs. right-handed pitching. They did add a starting pitcher, although one who has just 34 starts at the major league level.

They say if you want to know about a player’s performance, most likely it is reflected on the back of their baseball card, meaning once a player is established, he will likely do what he usually does. And that’s our issue with the 2025 Cleveland Guardians.

We look around and simply have no idea what to expect about of several players projected to be starters for Cleveland.

We like the potential of Kyle Manzardo, Brayan Rocchio, Bo Naylor, and a rightfield platoon of Nolan Jones and Jhonkensy Noel, but if you asked us to place a substantial wager on how successful they will perform this season, we would decline.

Same goes for the rotation. We have confidence in Bibee, and Gavin Williams appears to be back to the guy he was in 2023 when he came up, but figuring out what Ben Lively, Logan Allen, and Ortiz will do?

The biggest strength Cleveland had a year ago was the bullpen, and veteran baseball people will tell anyone that listens it is the most volatile area on any team. Think about it, last year at this time, no one had any clue that Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, and Tim Herrin would be as dominant as they were.

To think they will all repeat those seasons again is foolish. Maybe Paul Sewald regains his form and someone like Andrew Walters pitches great or Trevor Stephan returns during the year and picks up the slack.

Because of the way the Guardians do their business, it is likely this will be the case for the Guardians every year going forward, particularly under the Dolan ownership. What we mean is perhaps there will never be more than a couple of players who have track records.

However, on this basis, we don’t feel the Guardians will repeat as division champions. Of course, if three or four of the question marks turn out to be productive, Steven Vogt’s crew could win 90 games and make the post-season yet again.

So, what will the 2025 season hold for the Cleveland Guardians? We just don’t know. If we have to guess, let’s say 85 wins and second place in the AL Central.

Four Guys Who Need To Show For Guardians

Spring training numbers don’t matter if you are Jose Ramirez or Steven Kwan, or even someone like Lane Thomas, whose spot on the roster is assured.

But when you are trying to establish yourself as a Major League player, you probably need to put up some numbers to get big league at-bats when the season kicks off next week.

The Guardians have several players who are in that boat, they haven’t really proven anything at the big-league level, and some of those guys are struggling in Arizona.

Other guys have done well in exhibition play, but how they have performed thus far in the majors have a casting a jaundiced eye.

We have really like Tyler Freeman since he made his major league debut. His minor league pedigree says he should be a solid bat. His AAA numbers are .399/.403/802. Overall in the minors he has a .384 on base percentage.

But he’s had 637 plate appearances with Cleveland and has a .223 batting average with a .304 on base and 632 OPS. He’s been solid this spring going 10 for 32 with two homers and four walks.

How much does the brass trust him?

Then you have someone the front office is giving one last shot to, Gabriel Arias, who is out of options. Arias’ minor league numbers aren’t as impressive as Freeman’s (.337/.456/793 at AAA), but he has the metric the new age folks love–exit velocity. He hits the ball hard. When he hits it.

And that is Arias’ problem. His strikeout rate is 32.3%. The league average is 22.6%.

He hasn’t been strong in the spring training games either, going 8 for 35 with nine whiffs and a 707 OPS. However, most people feel he will open the season at second base.

Will Brennan is another player that needs to start showing something. Brennan came up during the stretch drive in 2022 going 15 for 42 with a HR. That followed a minor league season in which he hit .314 with an 850 OPS. That got people excited.

In the two years since, he’s had over 800 big league at-bats and put up numbers of .308/.377/685. That’s a below average OPS. He’s been solid during the spring, going 9 for 34 with a couple of homers and an 806 OPS.

What would we like to see from Brennan? More patience. He seems to swing at the first pitch a lot and if you don’t have a lot of pop you need to be able to draw walks. Singles’ hitters who don’t walk are very replaceable.

Bo Naylor doesn’t have to worry about making the team, he’ll be the primary catcher, but it remains to be seen what kind of hitter he will be in the bigs. In the second half of ’23, Naylor hit .252 with 10 home runs and an 893 OPS.

His strikeout to walk ratio was 35:25.

Last season, he hit .201 and that ratio was 122:29. Which hitter is he going to be? This spring he has gone 8 for 37 and has drawn three walks with seven punchouts.

For a team that seems to have offensive questions, it would be great if Naylor is a viable hitter. And it would be great for Naylor because 2023 draftee Cooper Ingle will start the year at Akron and is showing signs he can swing the bat.

These guys are on the spot both now and for the first month or two of the season. Can any of them emerge for the Guardians

Thinking Like A Coach Or GM

At times we are asked why we think Cleveland area teams should look to add to the roster. It has come up recently because we have written several pieces about how the Guardians should sign a veteran starting pitcher because there are several available on one-year deals.

We would also like the Cavaliers to add another big man, either on the buyout market or from the G-League.

First of all, and this probably comes from our coaching days, we have been trained to look for what needs improvement on a given team. We think there isn’t a team out there that doesn’t have either a weakness or could use a slight improvement to its roster.

Sometimes, it would be a subtle move, such as could you find a better “last man” on the roster. That seems silly to some, but it is how coaches and general managers need to think.

Fans look at players and teams and think if everything goes right, the team they follow will be very good. For example, there are people (influencers, since they were kind of in the spotlight this week) who believe Kyle Manzardo, Juan Brito will become all-stars, and Bo Naylor will return to his 2023 form and the Guardians will repeat as Central Division champions.

Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff are probably hoping that is indeed the case, but they also should be coming up with a contingency plan in case everything goes in the other direction. We believe they are concerned, but perhaps their hands are tied from making such a move.

There is an old adage in baseball that at the end of the year, a players’ numbers will be close to what the back of their baseball card says. But when a player only has one or two lines on that card, it is tough to judge him or her.

Not having a track record is likely the thing that worries an executive more than anything else.

We discussed the starting rotation for Cleveland the other day and really, there is only one hurler, Tanner Bibee, with any kind of record of success as a starter, and he only has two years in the big leagues. Every other candidate for the rotation should be viewed as huge question marks.

And, by the way, we are fans, just like you, and we want all of those pitchers to do well. But we haven’t seen any evidence that calms our fears.

As for the Cavs, on Friday night, we saw Jarrett Allen leave the game with a hand injury. Hopefully, all is good, and Allen plays tonight, but what if this happened near the end of the regular season or the playoffs?

If Allen were to miss a significant amount of time in the post-season, the Cavs probably are in trouble, but if it would be a game or two, you can’t just have Tristan Thompson as the only alternative. That’s why we (and the Cavs’ brass) would be looking for another big man.

They don’t need a starter, just someone who could provide five to ten minutes in an emergency situation.

The coaches and executives need to plan for any problems that should arise, and that’s how they are trained to think. It’s also why they have a lot of stress in their jobs and feel more relieved than happy when things go well.

Some Struggles Among The Guardians’ Fast Start

There is no question the Cleveland Guardians have been one of the more surprising teams in Major League Baseball, jumping out to a 23-13 record and first place in the so far surprisingly strong AL Central.

The much-maligned division currently has four teams over the .500 mark.

That said, there have been some disappointing starts for a few of the Guardians’ players thus far. It’s still early and we don’t mean to dwell on the negative when the team is playing so well, but here are players we would like to see get going.

Bo Naylor had a strong second half last year, hitting .252 with 10 home runs and an 893 OPS, but has struggled at the plate and defensively so far in 2024. The left-handed hitter has just a 558 OPS and leads the team in strikeouts with 38 in 103 plate appearances.

His whiff rate is at 37% right now, compared to 23% last season and while he is among the team leaders in taking walks, his walk rate has dropped from last season.

Defensively, he already has four passed balls (he had 5 last season) and there have been several others where the pitcher was charged with a wild pitch, and the Guardians are tied for the AL high in that category, and we felt Naylor could have done a better job blocking it.

Remember, the Guardians as an organization value defense first behind the plate.

We aren’t saying Naylor should be in danger of losing his job, but we better contact and better defense should be the goal going forward.

Ramon Laureano was resigned in the off-season because he could can play CF and RF and because of his success against southpaws, a career 777 OPS against lefties. However, let’s not forget he was designated for assignment by the lowly A’s, where he hit .213 with a 645 OPS.

To date, he is 5 for 30 vs. left-handed pitching with 13 strikeouts and no walks in 32 plate appearances. Overall, he is hitting .150 with 27 whiffs, 7 walks, and a single home run. Could Johnathan Rodriguez, hitting .280 with an 867 OPS, be poised to take his at bats?

We are sure the organization doesn’t want to bring up Rodriguez and platoon him, and that might be the thing saving Laureano right now.

We knew one of the three rookie starting pitchers the Guardians had last season would have struggles, and Logan Allen is the one having the most troubles. Gavin Williams is still sidelined and while Tanner Bibee hasn’t been dominant, he does have a 4.46 ERA.

Allen had a solid second start of the season, going 6.2 shutout innings against Seattle, but other than that start, he’s pitched to a 7.71 ERA in 32.2 frames. He has a solid strikeout to walk ratio (33K:14 BB) but has allowing 47 hits, including nine home runs.

And to be fair, Allen didn’t pitch poorly in Houston, where bad defense did him in.

The problem is the lack of alternatives right now until Williams returns. Xzavion Curry gave Cleveland a solid start in his lone appearance for the big club, but currently has a 6.86 ERA at Columbus.

And add in the uncertainty (at least in our mind) every time Carlos Carrasco starts, and it’s clear the Guardians need Allen to get back to the guy who had a 3.81 ERA and gave up a hit an inning a year ago.

The Guardians are rapidly approaching the quarter pole of the season, but they need to see progress from this trio going forward.

Viewing The Guards After 27 Games.

The Cleveland Guardians played their 27th game last night in Atlanta, hitting the 1/6th point of the season with an incredible 19-8 record. The Guards were 13-14 last season at this point, continuing a tradition of break-even early season records under Terry Francona.

We are sure even Steven Vogt himself would not have imagined the start this year’s squad is off to, especially after Shane Bieber had two excellent starts and then injured his elbow and will have to miss the balance of the season.

The biggest difference is the offense, averaging over a run a game better than 2023 (5.19 vs. 4.03). Is that sustainable? Only time will tell, but the Guardians are getting better production out of two of their weakest spots a year ago in catcher and centerfield.

Austin Hedges still can’t hit, but Bo Naylor and David Fry have provided more better production. That combo is tied for the team lead in walks with 10 and belted three home runs.

In center, it wasn’t hard to get better hitting with Myles Straw being one of the worst offensive players in the American League, so having Tyler Freeman being a capable bat so far with 3 homers and a 697 OPS is a help.

In terms of WAR (wins above replacement), Cleveland has five spots (1B, 2B, LF, CF, and DH) among the top three in the AL. Last season for the entire year, they had just two: 2B and LF.

Of course, the four mainstays, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez, and Steven Kwan, have remained productive, although Ramirez hasn’t really been hot yet. He is second in the AL in RBIs though.

The Guardians still don’t strike out a lot, 4th least in the league, and they are third from the bottom in drawing walks. But they lead the league in doubles, are tied for second in stolen bases, and are second in the AL in slugging percentage.

We would like to see more walks as the season progresses, and less hit by pitches, another category Cleveland leads the league in.

The primary concern for this team right now is the starting pitching, which outside of Bieber’s two starts has been underwhelming. The great Bill James used to say (probably still does) a pitcher who allowed less hits than innings pitched and struck out twice as many as he walked was a good pitcher.

Based on that criterion, the Guards have one good starter, Ben Lively, and he’s only made two starts due to a late start out of spring training. If the Guardians are going to be serious contenders, they will need a lot more out of the starting rotation.

To date, Cleveland has issued 93 walks on the season, 7th most in the AL. Of that total, 53 (58%) have been issued by Triston McKenzie (17), Carlos Carrasco (13), Tanner Bibee (12), and Logan Allen (11).

Because of that, the starters can’t go deep into games creating a heavy and probably not sustainable toll on the bullpen. McKenzie has only allowed 20 hits in his 22 innings of work, but the walks are just killing him.

Last night, Bibee probably had Cleveland’s best start of the year, going seven shutout frames against a very good Braves’ offense.

Right now, four Guardians relievers (Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Scott Barlow, and Nick Sandlin) rank tied for 3rd in appearances. Vogt has done a good job limiting innings, as Clase leads in innings pitched with 14, but eventually you have to think it will be a detriment to success.

The Guardians’ start is a welcome surprise, and really it has been a total team effort. It’s not like someone has had an unbelievable start. And they have only played three games against the 1962 Mets-like Chicago White Sox.

So far, the improvement is there and there is no reason it cannot continue.

So Far, So Good For Guardians

The baseball season is way too early to make any legitimate comments about the Cleveland Guardians’ start. First, seven games is just 4.3% of the season schedule.

Second, Steven Vogt’s squad spent the first four games playing the Oakland A’s, who may just be the worst team in the sport this season. That doesn’t mean we aren’t happy they took three out of four in Oakland. As we always ask people who pooh-pooh beating poor opponents, would you rather they lost?

Certainly, the series in Seattle and Minnesota will be more of a challenge for the Guardians, but as we said earlier, it is much too soon to make any blanket statements about the 2024 team.

It is difficult to judge the performance of the hitters against the A’s pitching staff, but that doesn’t mean beating Luis Castillo on Tuesday night in Seattle wasn’t impressive. Two of the things we felt would improve the offense, upgrading at catcher and centerfield have showed a bit.

Myles Straw hit just a single home run a year ago and knocked in just 29 runs for the season. Tyler Freeman, getting the bulk of the playing time out there so far, has already matched the dinger total of Straw, and he’s knocked in four runs already.

And Bo Naylor had the big blow against Castillo, a two-run shot, and he’s already drawn three walks in the four games he has played.

One thing that has stuck out was the performance of the starting rotation the first time through. Shane Bieber has been phenomenal, looking every bit like the two-time all-star he is after two appearances, but the rest of the starters have struggled in one area.

None of the other starters has been terrible, but they have had a problem giving Vogt length. It’s not a big deal early in the season, but if it continues, the bullpen will have to carry a heavy burden.

Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco fought through five innings, Tanner Bibee went just four, and Triston McKenzie lasted just 3.1. The latter two really struggled finding the strike zone consistently, so let’s see how they pitch in their next outings vs. Minnesota this weekend.

It was encouraging to see Allen go 6-2/3 innings yesterday.

As an organization, the Guardians are centered around the starting rotation, and if they can’t take the load off the bullpen, that could be an issue.

On the other hand, the relief corps has been ravaged by injuries and illness, yet they performed admirably this far. Rookie Cade Smith was particularly impressive, fanning nine in 4.1 innings, and Hunter Gaddis might prove to be a weapon out of the ‘pen, with three scoreless outings.

We are sure it would ease Vogt’s mind if he could get six innings out of the rest of the rotation the next time through.

Back to the offense, the key is watching how the hitter perform against good pitching, which the Mariners and Twins have. Putting up competitive at bats is a good thing and something to watch against Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan.

The offense is the part of the team that was the biggest question mark coming into the season. We will continue to monitor if there is progress in scoring runs.

Guardians’ Season Preview In Our “Perspective”

To say the Cleveland Guardians had a very quiet off-season would be an understatement. The biggest news around the franchise was the hiring of a new manager. For the first time since the end of the 2012 season, someone besides Terry Francona is running the club.

In terms of personnel, the front office didn’t exactly build up last year’s roster for new skipper Steven Vogt. The biggest trades brought in Scott Barlow to bolster the bullpen, and they took a shot on a heretofore failed Yankee prospect in Estevan Florial.

But as the regular season opens tonight in Oakland, the obvious question is will the Guardians resemble the young upstarts that won the American League Central Division in 2022, or the squad that was a disappointment in ’23 with a 76-86 record?

How They Can Win. This probably starts with good health for the pitching staff. The Guards lost Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie for good chunks of the season a year ago, and if they stay healthy, the rotation should be in good shape.

We say that even though there are three sophomores in the rotation. Tanner Bibee was second in the AL Rookie Of The Year voting last year, and Gavin Williams looks like an ace in waiting. Logan Allen is a solid fifth starter.

The bullpen added Barlow, who has closed in the past with Kansas City, to go with Emmanuel Clase, which should lessen the burden on the latter.

The offense is improved with upgrades at catcher in Bo Naylor, and they should get better production out of centerfield (Myles Straw was one of the game’s worst hitters a year ago) and the RF/DH spot which were black holes last season.

And Jose Ramirez approaches the type of season he had in 2021 (36 HR, 103 RBI, 893 OPS) and Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez produce closer to their 2022 campaigns.

And most importantly, Kyle Manzardo and Chase DeLauter get called up around the All-Star break and give the hitting yet another boost.

Why They Won’t. The offense isn’t any better than the 12th in runs scored last season and the front office is still searching for answers.

Ramon Laureano shows why the A’s released him last season, and when Manzardo and DeLauter make their much-anticipated debuts, they struggle to find consistency.

And the search for the next everyday shortstop continues as neither Brayan Rocchio nor Gabriel Arias seize the job.

The young starters of a year ago take a step backwards and the rotation is in flux. The bullpen, save for Clase, proves ineffectively and Nick Sandlin and Eli Morgan continue to give up gopher balls by the bushel.

This causes the trade of Bieber before the deadline and signals the beginning of a new “rebuild” behind Ramirez, Manzardo, DeLauter, Juan Brito, etc.

What Do We Think? This team appears to be a .500 ballclub. The good news is the division is awful. The Twins suffered losses and the White Sox are in total rebuild move. The Tigers are trying to contend, but also kind of overachieved a year ago, and the Royals’ pitching is still an issue, although they are spending money (sigh, what could have been).

We think the Guardians will finish with between 78-84 wins, which could be enough to get them in the post-season.

And we definitely think by the end of the year, both Manzardo and DeLauter will be wearing Cleveland uniforms.

Who Will Make Up Guardians’ Roster?

It is kind of sneaking up on people, but the Cleveland Guardians will open the season a little over two weeks from now, two weeks from Thursday in fact, when they take on the Oakland A’s in Steven Vogt’s debut as manager.

Vogt and the front office haven’t made many roster decisions as of yet, so there are still a lot of players in camp, and they can only take 26 to Oakland. Here is how we see things shaping up to date, barring injury.

The catchers are set, Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges will be the backstops, and the starting rotation will be Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen, unless Williams’ elbow issue is lingering.

Three quarters of the infield are set with 1B Josh Naylor, 2B Andres Gimenez, and 3B Jose Ramirez, the shortstop job is still seemingly up for grabs as neither Gabriel Arias (3 for 16) nor Brayan Rocchio (2 for 20) have taken control.

And in the outfield, it looks like Steven Kwan and Ramon Laureano has spots etched in stone, and because of his contract, Myles Straw is a lock too. That would be 13 players.

Five spots in the bullpen are settled: Emmanuel Clase, Scott Barlow, Sam Hentges, Eli Morgan, and Nick Sandlin.

Two of the last three spot in relief should go to free agent Ben Lively and old friend Carlos Carrasco. That would leave the last spot going to either Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis, or Tim Herrin.

With the 8 relievers, that means 21 spots are filled and five would be open. We assume Tyler Freeman has one of those spots locked up, and the decision should be whether he is starting in centerfield, shortstop, or second base (with Gimenez moving to SS).

Will Brennan probably has the team made as well, which would leave three spots open. One of those would be the utility infield spot, which likely will not go to phenom Angel Martinez. More than likely it would be either Arias or Rocchio, probably the former, with an outside shot for Jose Tena.

Another question would be the players who are out of options, of which Cleveland has four. Two of them, Hentges and Lively should have spots locked up.

Deyvison De Los Santos is another because he was selected in the rule 5 draft and has to make the team or be offered back to Arizona. If he stays, he’s pretty much the 26th man.

The other is Estevan Florial, who has underwhelmed to date, going 2 for 22 with 10 strikeouts. He really has done nothing to make the team, but we wonder if he gets a spot because he’s out of options.

If the organization keeps both De Los Santos and Florial, that will make the roster complete. And it would also keep David Fry and Kyle Manzardo off the Opening Day roster.

We would like to see both in Oakland on March 28th. Fry is a right-handed bat with some pop and can also serve as a third catcher. That would enable Vogt to pinch-hit for Hedges on days he starts.

We’ve been pretty clear that we think Manzardo should come north with the big club, but we would like to see more at bats vs. big league arms. So far in camp, he has gone 6 for 13 with two doubles and two walks and four Ks.

On the flip side, we only want him up if the Guards plan to give him plenty of plate appearances. If he’s going to be in there once or twice a week, then send him to AAA.

Of course, there could still be some minor trades or worse, injuries that affect this projection. However, the beginning of the season is getting closer.

Maybe Being Slightly Better At Some Spots Will Work For Guards

We have been critical of the inactivity this winter by the Cleveland Guardians. The Guards fell from a division winner in 2022 to last year’s 76-86 record, and really haven’t made any moves to get better.

However, we remembered that when the team gets to the trade deadline, we always remind people that it’s not always a blockbuster move that is needed, sometimes an incremental move works just fine.

So, in that spirit we have cut the front office a bit of slack. We still think going after one or two veterans to have around as a backup plan would have been a smarter play, and of course, we will remind folks of that if what they are doing doesn’t work out.

And that’s not a second guess.

New manager Steven Vogt has talked a few times about newcomer Estevan Florial taking over in centerfield and we have pointed out Florial’s struggles in making contact and his fall from ranking as a top 100 prospect.

Then we remembered he would be replacing Myles Straw at the spot. Last year, Straw was the third worst hitter in the American League with his 597 OPS. The only players who were worse were Javier Baez and Tim Anderson.

If Florial can have a 650 OPS this season (league average is 728), the Guardians’ offense will be better than last year. Heck, overall, Cleveland centerfielders had a 626 OPS, the worst on the team.

The second worst spot was rightfield, where the players manning the spot combined for a 629 OPS. The favorites to play there in 2024 are Will Brennan and Ramon Laureano in a platoon role.

Brennan had a 695 OPS vs. right-handed pitching in ’23, while Laureano had a 794 OPS against southpaws. And remember, the latter didn’t join the team until August last season.

If they repeat those numbers, the offensive production out of that position will be improved.

And the third worst spot should be better because it is the catching position and Bo Naylor should get the bulk of the playing time there. Barring the dreaded sophomore slump, that is.

Naylor put up an 809 OPS, belting 11 home runs in the 67 games he played last season. And he’s patient at the plate, drawing 30 walks. That’s nothing new, he had a .348 on base percentage in his minor league career.

We have no question that he can boost the production from that position, after all, the Guards unbelievably gave 149 at bats to Cam Gallagher last season, who put up a woeful 322 OPS.

Baseballprospectus.com listed Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez as the most likely players to have improved numbers at the plate this season. And we agree they will probably be better in 2024.

With the Central Division being what it is, perhaps those things, coupled with the usual solid pitching, can vault the Guardians back to the top of the division standings.

We still would rather have invested some money (we know, we know) into getting a decent hitter or two to improve the roster instead of trying to project how a 20-year-old who has never played higher than AA can make an impact. The front office is back to their Dusty Springfield approach.

For younger people, she was a singer who had a big hit called “Wishin’ and Hopin'”.

Maybe we just have a case of Spring Training Fever. After all, exhibition play started yesterday.