Remembering When Starting Pitching Brought Confidence To Guardians’ Fans

As recently as 2018, fans of the Cleveland baseball team were spoiled by their starting pitching. The rotation consisted of Corey Kluber (who won 20 games that year), Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer, and a rookie fifth starter named Shane Bieber.

At the time, we thought going into every game, the Indians had a legitimate chance to win because they had the edge between the two starting pitchers.

Even into the pandemic season of 2020, Terry Francona’s starters were at the top of the sport. Bieber emerged as a Cy Young winner that season, and he was backed up by Carrasco, Clevinger (before he was traded), Aaron Civale, and rookie Triston McKenzie.

Baseball people started to refer to the “Cleveland Pitching Factory”, with the organization seemingly able to crank out starter after starter. Heck, it happened last season when McKenzie went down in spring training, Zach Plesac proved ineffective, and Cal Quantrill was hurt, the Guardians simply went to the farm and called up Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams.

Apparently, this season the factory has been shut down for repairs or something, because the organization is scrambling to put an effective starting pitcher on the mound each and every night.

It was certainly curious when the organization released Quantrill after the season rather than pay him through arbitration, where he figured to make about $6 million, not a lot of money for a guy who can give you innings.

The right-hander has pitched to a 3.58 ERA in Colorado this season logging a staff high 73 innings. By the way, those innings would also lead the Guardians’ staff.

The only pitcher signed over the winter was Reds’ castoff Ben Lively, who has been a savior for this year’s staff.

Bieber was lost to elbow surgery after two starts, leaving a huge void in the rotation, which coming into the season consisted of him, the three rookies, and McKenzie, who missed most of last year with an elbow issue.

Of the trio of first year arms called up last year and thought to provide the backbone of the rotation going forward, only Bibee has been close to his ’23 form, with a 3.73 ERA in 70 innings with 76 strikeouts and 19 walks.

Williams has missed all year with an elbow issue, but hopefully can return soon. Allen has made his 13 starts but has a 5.57 ERA.

McKenzie has not pitched like the guy who put up a 2.96 ERA in 2022. He has allowed a league leading 14 dingers (tied with his teammate Logan Allen) and also leads the league in walks with 36 in 62.2 innings of work.

Right now, the rotation has more holes than an old guy’s socks. And there were no solutions at hand.

Xzavion Curry has made three spot starts, one very good, the other two being “meh”. The ERA of the pitching staff at Columbus is 5.46 and the best starter down there is journeyman Connor Gillispie, who has a 5.02 ERA, although he has 60 strikeouts in 57.1 innings. He’s 26 years old.

The bullpen has taken on a heavy burden for the big club to get off to this 42-22 start. How long can they sustain the success pitching all of these innings? Could they do it all year? Sure, but based on the past, eventually it is going to catch up with them unless the starters start carrying their weight.

As we said, Lively has been a savior and Bibee has been solid. Carlos Carrasco has been a nice story in his return to the franchise, but he can’t be trusted to get through a lineup a third time.

McKenzie needs to throw strikes and he and Allen need to keep the ball in the yard.

More likely is the front office is going to have to overpay to bring in an arm. With the Cleveland bullpen, they may be able to get a guy who can soak up innings and keep the team in the game.

The rest of the team is doing too well for the rotation to be a burden.

Do Guardians Really Need A Shortstop? Not So Fast

As the calendar turns to June, the Major League Baseball trading deadline is now less than two months away. And with the Cleveland Guardians off to a tremendous start, speculation has started as to what the front office will be targeting at the July 30th deadline.

It doesn’t take in depth analysis to realize the Guardians need starting rotation help, although you could say that with most contending teams.

Obviously, losing Shane Bieber after two starts was a huge blow, and not having Gavin Williams to date, has really wiped out 40% of the rotation. Williams is making progress, making a rehab start last week, and perhaps he can be back before July 1st.

Still, although Tanner Bibee has been very good (4-1, 3.74 ERA) he is averaging less than 6 innings per start. The same is true of the other rotation pieces, Triston McKenzie and Ben Lively.

This is put a heavy toll on the bullpen, which has been the strength of the team. The list of the top ten in the American League in appearances features four pitchers wearing Cleveland uniforms: Emmanuel Clase is tied for the league lead with 30. Hunter Gaddis and Nick Sandlin are tied for fourth at 29, and Scott Barlow is tied for 7th at 28.

Add in Tim Herrin with 27 games and rookie Cade Smith with 25. So far, no one has lost effectiveness, but you would hate to get into August and have the relief corps suffer a downturn.

The other position that comes up is shortstop. However, if you look at WAR, the Guardians’ weakest positions have been RF and catcher. The rightfield issue may sort itself out as we wouldn’t be surprised if David Fry starts getting more playing time there now that Stephan Kwan has returned.

We have written about Fry before, and when you are hitting .355 with an OPS of 1128, your manager is going to figure out how to get you in the lineup.

Brayan Rocchio doesn’t have a lot of pop, and we are sure people look at his .203 batting average and say he has to be replaced. But looking inside the numbers, you see that Rocchio is tied for second on the team in walks with 23, behind only Fry with 24.

So is on base percentage is .308, which is the American League average. And Rocchio has been more than adequate defensively, which is important because first and foremost, shortstop is a defensive position.

Let’s not overlook the Guardians’ excellent start and the way the hitting has produced runs certainly buys Rocchio more time.

And we have always said this. If Cleveland was having problems producing offense, then Rocchio would certainly be under more scrutiny. But they are winning and scoring.

We have also always felt that good lineups need seven solid bats in the batting order to be productive. The league average OPS is 699 right now, and the Guards have five hitters over that figure, but over the last month, Tyler Freeman is close at 694.

We are willing to give Rocchio more time, especially because he has an acceptable strikeout/walk ratio, meaning he is not getting dominated by opposing pitchers.

If you are asking, we would add pitching first and foremost, because we agree with former skipper Terry Francona, when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.

We would rank the trade targets this way: 1). Starter 2). Reliever 3). Starter…….4). shortstop.

Six weeks from now, we may sing a different tune.

An Early Tough Gut Punch For Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians are off to a very good start this season, but it didn’t make them exempt from getting bad news. Saturday, it was announced that Shane Bieber would have to undergo elbow surgery and miss the rest of the season.

It’s a blow for sure as the right-hander looked like he did in his Cy Young Award season in his first two starts, throwing 12 shutout innings with 20 strikeouts and just one walk.

Immediately, some fans raised the white flag on the season, but the players and Steven Vogt don’t and won’t feel that way. Since Bieber is a starting pitcher, they really only have to replace him once every fifth day.

Not to say we told you so, but the availability of Bieber as well as Triston McKenzie were two reasons we didn’t understand the organization’s decision not to add any pitching over the winter. McKenzie missed most of the 2023 season with an elbow issue, and hopefully he will make 30 starts, but it will be a pleasant surprise.

So, where does the organization go from here. First, many people have said the Guardians need to make a trade, but it’s so early in the season, it would seem to be difficult to find a trade partner.

Gavin Williams is down in Arizona right now building up his arm due to a tweak in his elbow (there’s that joint again), and if all goes well, he could be back by the end of April, and could take Bieber’s spot in the rotation.

Williams, if he can remain healthy, has the look of a stud starting pitcher and did well last season with a 3-5 record and 3.29 ERA and almost a strikeout per inning.

Until Williams is back, it could be Xzavion Curry or Ben Lively, the one free agent pitcher the Guardians did sign in the off-season, getting the ball.

Both pitchers are on rehab assignments after catching the flu/virus bug that traveled around the clubhouse in Arizona but were being stretched out as starters before they became ill.

Curry made nine starts a year ago and went 2.2 innings in his first outing at Columbus, while Lively, a 32-year-old veteran, made 12 starts last season for Cincinnati after spending the 2020-22 seasons in Korea as a starter.

Lively was 4-7 with a 5.38 ERA with the Reds in ’23, striking out 79 and walking 25 in 88.2 innings. He did allow 20 dingers with the Reds, and before you blame the bandbox stadium in the Queen City, the homers were divided equally home and road.

He went three in his first rehab outing.

With Sunday’s rainout and Thursday’s off day, the Guardians can get to next Tuesday’s game at Fenway Park before needing a fifth starter, so either Curry or Lively should be ready to give Steven Vogt at least five innings by then.

The way Bieber looked in his first two starts was so encouraging though. Through nine games, only three starters have completed six innings and Bieber’s starts were two of those.

Vogt is going to need Tanner Bibee and Carlos Carrasco to give him more innings in order to keep the bullpen, which has been excellent so far, fresh.

That duo hasn’t pitched poorly, but through their four combined starts, only Bibee has seen the sixth inning and that was just for one out.

The Guardians will continue to proceed with their “win today’s game” attitude, which is how it is supposed to be.

Losing Bieber for the rest of the year is a blow, but it happened early enough for the organization to adjust.

Guardians’ Off-Season Has Been Riveting

Today is January 7, 2024. This means in 37 days; baseball fans hear the expression they have waited for since the World Series ended on November 1st: ”Pitchers and catchers report to spring training”.

If you are a fan of the Cleveland Guardians, it has been watching the constant upgrades to the roster, as the front office addressed the weaknesses, particularly the hitting, which finished 12th in the American League in runs scored.

The heavy sarcasm is intended.

Yes, we know the Guardians have a new manager, but they have done little else with spring training commencing in little over a month.

And this isn’t last season, coming off a Central Division title, the Guardians were a below .500 team in 2023.

First, they selected 1B/OF Alfonso Rivas from Pittsburgh off waivers, and then put him on waivers themselves several weeks later. They also added C Christian Bethancourt from Tampa Bay via the same method, and then traded him to Miami for cash (we will spare the sarcasm here, oh guess we didn’t) a little over a month later.

The biggest move they made was designating Cal Quantrill for assignment, and then trading him to Colorado for a minor league catcher. Apparently, when Terry Francona retired, so did the mantra that you can’t have too much pitching.

The one move that would rank highest on the excitement level (still would be around a 4 on a scale of 1-10) would be acquiring reliever Scott Barlow from San Diego for Enyel De La Santos. Barlow is a former closer and could be a cure for overusing Emmanuel Clase, assuming he isn’t traded before the season starts, as there have been rumors.

The Guardians didn’t stop there though. In kind of a secret move, Oscar Gonzalez, a post-season hero just a year and a half ago, was put on waivers and claimed by the Yankees.

Since they lost Quantrill, team president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff swung into action and signed Ben Lively, not to be confused with actress Blake Lively, as a free agent from Cincinnati.

Lively, 32, could be another veteran anchor to the Cleveland rotation. That is if you dismiss his career 5.05 ERA in 208 big league innings. He had a 5.38 ERA for the Reds last year, but of course, their home park is very hitter friendly.

Unfortunately, his ERA at home was 4.70 and his road figure was 5.90.

Austin Hedges, a fan favorite (why?) was brought back as a free agent. Hedges is a tremendous defensive catcher, but he his OPS over the last three seasons have been 461, 489, and 527. And the first figure was the most recent.

The day after Christmas, the Guardians dealt oft-injured pitcher Cody Morris to the Yankees for left-handed hitter OF Estevan Florial, a former top 100 prospect.

Florial hit .230 (635 OPS) in 61 at bats for New York last season. He did belt 28 homers and put up a 945 OPS at AAA last year. He does strike out a lot, but his walk rate has got better over the past two seasons. No sarcasm here, but perhaps he can help.

On the other hand, he hits left-handed, not really an area of need, although the power would help.

Our point is it must be very tough to be a salesman in the ticket office for this team. They’ve virtually given their fans nothing to be excited about, although we are sure they would say it is because of the uncertainty surrounding their local television deal.

Perhaps in the next 30 days, they will be involved in doing something to significantly help their new skipper, Steven Vogt, have a more competitive squad.

We are sure the prospect gurus out there will tell us how several rookies will impact the 2024 edition of the Cleveland Guardians and all will be well.

Truth be told, we like some of their talent coming up, and hope those folks are correct. Our experience tells us most of those good young players won’t make an impact in 2024.

Hot Stove Season? More like Hot Doze Season if you are a fan of the Guardians.

Guardians’ Starting Depth? Not That Much.

The Cleveland Guardians pride themselves on being a pitching factory. Even the national media talks about it. When we read that, we always think what happened to the blueprints for the hitting factory.

A recent ranking of starting rotations in the sport had Cleveland ranked 24th though, far below where they normally sit. And frankly, that ranking makes sense to us.

Right now, the rotation consists of two pitchers who missed significant time with arm problems in Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, and three guys who have less than a season of experience.

Bieber has missed substantial parts in two of the last three seasons with injuries, completing only the 2022 season, when he went 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA and 198 strikeouts in 200 innings.

Last season, his velocity was down, but he still was reasonably effective in 128 innings, pitching to a 3.80 ERA (league average was 4.33) and allowing less hits than innings pitched.

McKenzie pitched in just four games, totaling only 16 innings with an elbow issue. That issue has led many pitchers to “Tommy John surgery”, and frankly, that’s still a concern for us heading into the season. And if something happens during spring training, we won’t see the 26-year-old until the 2025 season.

The three rookies were very impressive in 2023, but still, it was their first year and since there is no track record for any of this trio, we have no idea what to expect.

Tanner Bibee was the star, finishing second in the American League rookie of the year voting, pitching to a 2.98 ERA in 25 starts totaling 142 innings. He allowed just 122 hits while striking out 141 and walking 45.

Lefty Logan Allen made 24 starts and went 7-8 with a 3.81 ERA in 125.1 innings, giving up 127 hits, whiffing 119 and issuing 48 walks. And former first round pick Gavin Williams made 16 starts and had a 3.29 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 82 innings with 37 walks.

Impressive as they are, the 2024 season will tell if they can be like the three rookies in the 1984 Kansas City Royals’ rotation, Bret Saberhagen, Mark Gubicza, and Danny Jackson, who helped lead the Royals to their first world championship in 1985.

On the other hand, the last starting pitcher who was the rookie of the year was Detroit’s Michael Fullmer, whose ERA was more than a half run worse the following year, and his strikeout rate was down.

The history of the game shows a bunch of pitchers who were very good in their first season, and once the hitters got a book on them, didn’t have the same success going forward. We think both Bibee and Williams in particular have good enough stuff to overcome this, but until we see it, there has to be a bit of doubt.

There isn’t much depth behind this group. Cleveland signed 32-year-old Ben Lively from Cincinnati, who has a career 5.05 ERA, and still has holdovers Hunter Gaddis (49.1 career innings, 6.57 ERA) and Xzavion Curry (4.07 ERA in long relief, spot starting duty last season)

It was mentioned in a piece by Mike Axisa last week that perhaps Trevor Stephan might profile better as a starting pitcher, as he was in the minor leagues before 2019.

And of course, the next man who should be ready from the pitching factory is left-hander Will Dion, who had a 2.39 ERA at high Class A and AA last year, fanning 129 in 116.1 innings, allowing just 91 hits.

There is very little experience in the group we mentioned, especially if a rumored deal involving Bieber is completed. We are sure a pitching prospect will come back, but of course, that just adds another unproven arm.

That’s a lot of questions for a team that likes to consider itself a contender for a post-season spot. Does the organization still think that way?

Guardians’ Off-Season Moves Are Puzzling

It seems the entire “Hot Stove” portion on the Major League Baseball calendar was delayed by the whole Shohei Ohtani situation, but with the holiday season here, the norm for most teams is to have their major moves made before the calendar changes.

It has been particularly slow in Cleveland, where the offices on the corner of Ontario and Carnegie have been quiet, and when a move has been made, confusing.

The latter part of that statement is more concerning. We sometimes wish the organization would put as much effort in improving the team on the field as they do come up with reasons they can’t spend money.

For example, one of the first moves the Guards made this off-season was claiming Alfonso Rivas off waivers. Rivas has played in 167 big league games, hitting .243 with a 673 OPS. Last season, he played for San Diego and Pittsburgh, and had a 725 OPS. He did hit .332 at AAA El Paso with a 1043 OPS.

He’s a left-handed hitter (not an area of need) and plays 1B (also not an area of need) and the OF. And he’s 27 years old, and not a home run hitter. He’s also survived a bunch of roster moves where players had to be moved off the 40-man roster. That’s strange to us.

They let a serviceable starting pitcher, Cal Quantrill go rather than offer him arbitration, where he likely would have been awarded $6 million. Keep in mind this week, Kansas City signed Seth Lugo, a pitcher who pitched a career high 146 innings last year, to a contract worth $15 million per year.

A couple of days ago, they said they added depth to the rotation (depth they had with Quantrill) by signing 32-year-old Ben Lively, who had a 5.38 ERA for the Reds last year. We know Cincinnati has a hitter friendly park, but Lively was worse away from Great American Ballpark.

They claimed Christian Bethancourt, a catcher with some pop (11 homers in each of the last two seasons) from Tampa, only to deal him to Miami when they brought back Austin Hedges, a good defensive catcher who cannot hit. And they are paying Hedges more than they would have had to pay Bethancourt!

We will say the Guardians are probably the only team in baseball who can say Hedges is a better offensive option that the backup catcher they had a year ago.

The only move that makes sense was getting Scott Barlow from San Diego for Enyel De Los Santos. Barlow is a higher leverage reliever, with closer experience whereas De Los Santos kind of struggled when used in the late innings.

We wonder if a more substantial move is yet to come. There are still rumors surrounding Shane Bieber, but we think his return could be better in July if the Guardians aren’t in the race.

Right now, we can’t see the Guardians as being improved. They also seem reticent to move a couple of veterans to more key positions, such as Andres Gimenez to shortstop and Steven Kwan to centerfield, to open up spots for some hitting.

There’s still time, but the inactivity is certainly frustrating to a fan base that keeps remembering this number: 1948.