Stats Support Tribe Start

Many times in baseball, statistics do not support a team’s success or lack of it.

For example, last season, the Baltimore Orioles scored just seven more runs than they allowed, but went 93-69 in the standings. The sabermetric people would say the O’s overachieved. They did it by having an astounding 29-9 record in one run games.

This year’s Cleveland Indians are no surprise according to the numbers. Their 19-15 record is legitimate.

The Tribe’s position players are also younger than the league average at 28.4 years of age. The American League average is 29.1. And if you take grizzled veteran Jason Giambi out of the equation, Cleveland would have the fourth youngest position players in the AL, behind just Houston, Kansas City, and Baltimore.

That certainly bodes well for the future.

Even better is that the Tribe’s pitchers are the youngest in the league at 27.6 years old, compared to the AL average of 29 years of age.

The Indians average 5.06 runs per game, the second best average in the Junior Circuit, behind only division rival Detroit. They allow 4.24 runs per contest, a figure that ranks ninth, so there is still room for improvement.

We said prior to the season starting that the Wahoos needed to be in the top half of the league in both categories to be serious contenders. They are close right now, ranking 8th in ERA.

As for the other key offensive numbers, the Indians rank 4th in on base percentage, and lead the American League in slugging percentage and OPS. They are 3rd in batting average, but are fourth from the bottom in drawing walks. That is a number they will need to improve upon, as pitchers down the road may prey on their aggressiveness.

While many fans (including us) were worried about strikeouts, the Indians aren’t even in the top half of the league in striking out, ranking ninth. No Indians ranks in the ten of the league in whiffing.

The Tribe power hasn’t just been home runs (they lead the AL), but they also rank fifth in doubles and third in triples. They’ve been hitting for extra bases a lot.

As for the pitching, it has joined the hitting in feast or famine mode, being tied for the league lead in shutouts with five (with Texas, Tampa Bay, and Seattle). It says a lot about the stuff of the Indians’ pitchers that they lead the AL in allowing the least hits per nine innings. They also rank fifth in the league in strikeouts.

However, there are a couple of areas of concern. Cleveland pitchers are walking more than the average team, ranking sixth in the league in walks allowed. They also are third from the bottom in innings pitched by starters so far this year, ahead of just Houston and Minnesota. Although Terry Francona has kept 13 pitchers on the roster for much of the season, there is a fear of burning out the relief corps, which is a huge strength for this team.

This team doesn’t have any weird anomalies or getting a great deal of luck involved in a pretty good start. Francona’s bunch are playing good solid baseball. They are 8-5 in games decided by one run, another good stat. Good teams win blowout games.

Right now, the Cleveland Indians are no fluke.

Good Start, But Tribe Needs Consistency

After Saturday’s 7-3 victory over the Minnesota Twins, the Cleveland Indians completed their 27^th game, hitting the 1/6^th pole on the season.

What have we learned about this baseball team?

We have learned that the offense is about what most people figured it would be, which is a lot of feast and famine. The Indians rank fifth in the American League in runs scored, but through 27 games, they scored three runs or less in more than half of the contests (14).

On the other hand, they scored eight or more runs eight times. That leaves only five games where they scored between four and seven tallies.

That’s very inconsistent, although to be fair, they have been missing Michael Bourn for the last two weeks.

We have also learned that it appears Carlos Santana is becoming the all around hitter we thought he would be when he was called up in 2010. The switch-hitting catcher is batting .379 with six homers thus far, with an OPS of 1.160.

While it would be crazy to suggest he will end the year with those numbers, it looks like Santana is on his way to an outstanding season.

Free agent signee Mark Reynolds has also had a tremendous start, and is on his way to topping 30 HRs barring injury. He will have a period where he struggles, based on his past, but he seems to be getting better as a hitter, giving in a little bit with two strikes.

He doesn’t even lead the Tribe in striking out so far.

Asdrubal Cabrera (.222, 2 HR, 13 RBI), Jason Kipnis (.218, 2 HR, 10 RBI), and Lonnie Chisenhall (.231, 3 HR, 11 RBI) are all off to relatively slow starts, and should produce better as the season goes on, and some of the hot hitters tail off a bit.

We have learned that the Indians have quality depth in INF Mike Aviles and OF Ryan Raburn, both of whom have been very productive when called upon. Yan Gomes and Jason Giambi have contributed as well.

The bullpen has been very good as Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen have allowed Terry Francona to have five solid hard throwing right-handers at his disposal. And Rich Hill has done a good job as the ‘pen’s LOOGY (left-handed one out guy).

The starting rotation, which figured to be the club’s biggest weakness, has been strong lately, but had a shaky start.

Ubaldo Jimenez continues to be the biggest question mark, pitching well in his first start and last start, however, the three in between were brutal. At this point, Francona can’t know what he is going to get on a start-by-start basis.

The other wild card is southpaw Scott Kazmir, who has got better in each of his three starts, and looks to be a very pleasant surprise.

Zack McAllister has continued to show that he is solid, capable of keeping his team in the game in every start.

Justin Masterson was tremendous in his first five starts, but the last two have been so-so. He needs to go out there and give Francona seven quality frames on most nights.

The key going forward for the Tribe is the number of quality innings their starters can give them. They need to get to the sixth or seventh most of the time. Doing that will keep the bullpen fresh throughout the season.

The first checkpoint for the season shows the Tribe has held ground. They’ve been up and down, but they haven’t played themselves out of the race.

If they can be more consistent, both on offense and in starting pitching, it may be an enjoyable summer of baseball at Progressive Field.

Great Move by Tribe to Upgrade Bench

Much of the excitement over the fine off-season the Cleveland Indians front office had been based on getting Terry Francona to manage the squad, and the signings of free agents Nick Swisher, Mark Reynolds, Michael Bourn, and Brett Myers.

They also remade the bench, and so far those guys have come up huge in the early going for the Tribe.

With the injuries to Bourn and Swisher, and remember Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis missed some time as well, the bench guys have received playing time and have been productive.

Mike Aviles is tied for third in RBIs and Ryan Raburn in sixth on the club despite having played less than many of the players Francona writes in the batting order everyday.

And what may be even bigger, they understand their role.

Gone are the days of having to play Aaron Cunningham, Brett Lillibridge, and Vinny Rottino when a starter can’t go.

GM Chris Antonetti did an excellent job of getting veterans, who understand their job and their role, to come off the bench. These guys don’t need everyday at bats to stay sharp.

On the recent five game winning streak, Aviles had a five RBI game vs. Kansas City, and Raburn reincarnated Babe Ruth slugging a pair of homers in back to back games, and getting 12 hits in 14 at bats.

That’s getting help from the bench.

It helps that both Aviles and Raburn are 32 years old. They’ve been around the game for a while and they aren’t looking for a chance to play every day.

Aviles was the Red Sox’ starting shortstop last season, but his career shows he’s been much better when he doesn’t play everyday. He hit .250 in 2012, but is a career .276 hitter.

Raburn suffered through a terrible season in 2012, batting just .171 with only one home run. However, he averaged 15 dingers a year from 2009-11 with the Tigers and can play both corner outfield spots, as well as 2B and 3B.

Certainly, Aviles and Raburn have been the key contributors, but you can’t overlook the play of reserve catcher Yan Gomes and DH Jason Giambi.

Gomes, who came in the same deal with Toronto as did Aviles, is slowly but surely replacing Lou Marson as the back up catcher, showing more offense in his limited at bats as Marson ever did. The Brazilian native has four extra base hits in 31 at bats, compared to 10 all last year from Marson.

Giambi has two doubles, two homers, and three walks in limited playing time. He’s also well-respected in the clubhouse, a great role model for the young players like Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall.

And Francona has experience in using a veteran bench too. He tries to put all of these guys in positions where they can succeed.

The production from the bench will also keep the regulars fresh over the long haul of baseball’s regular season. Last year, it was evident that Asdrubal Cabrera and Kipnis wore down from playing every day as the Tribe didn’t have a quality reserve that the manager, Manny Acta, could trust.

No one should expect Raburn to continue channel Hank Aaron for the rest of the season, and there will certainly be days and weeks where the reserve players won’t produce.

Still, the Indians filled some holes on the bench which are just as important as the ones they filled in the starting lineup.

Those moves have helped the Indians tread water during the first month of the season.

Make or Break Time for Ubaldo

In the English language, it is a general rule the every “Q” is followed by the letter “u”.

That is certainly true for the Cleveland Indians. Their biggest question is Ubaldo Jimenez.

He was a concern for the team after last season ended, a year where Jimenez lost 17 games and had an ERA of 5.40. He was second in the American League in walks, and led the league in wild pitches.

New manager Terry Francona visited the big right-hander in the off-season and new pitching coach Mickey Calloway has worked hard to smooth out Jimenez’ bulky mechanics.

So far, the results are mixed.

He did pitch well in his first start against Toronto in the second game of the season, but his next two appearances were terrible, the home opener against the Yankees, and a start vs. Boston that he couldn’t make out of the second inning.

He was okay against Houston, allowing a two run homer in the first, but at one point retired 13 men in a row. Still, he was pulled after throwing just 65 pitches and received a no decision.

It seems that Francona and Calloway are trying to avoid putting Jimenez on the mound, pushing him back in the rotation in each of his last three starts. He was supposed to pitch on Saturday night, but with the rainout Friday in Kansas City, they decided to start him Monday, by passing both games in a doubleheader on Sunday.

The question now seems to be how much longer is the rope for the former Rockie?

He still cannot throw strikes consistently, with 11 in 17 innings of work this season. And he is pitching backwards, throwing 30% split finger fastballs on the first pitch this season, and that pitch is usually used to finish off hitters.

It seems like the Tribe doesn’t have confidence in Jimenez, and worse yet, the pitcher himself has no confidence.

And soon, the Indians will have a decision to make.

Corey Kluber gave his team a very good start Sunday night in Kansas City, going seven innings and allowing just two runs. He’s earned another start.

Justin Masterson has won four games thus far, and Zack McAllister has kept Cleveland in the game in each of his five starts.

Scott Kazmir showed promise in his second start after a rocky outing in his first effort. The lefty is a project, but he has maintained a 90+ MPH fastball that he had when he was a top-notch pitcher with the Rays.

So, right now, by performance and as a result of being moved around in the rotation as needed, Jimenez is the Indians’ fifth starter.

What happens if Trevor Bauer, who will make a spot start on Wednesday against Philadelphia because of Friday’s rainout, pitches well? Or if Carlos Carrasco, who took a line drive off his pitching elbow last week, continues to dominate at AAA?

If things continue, as they are, which of course, is no guarantee, what choice does the Tribe brass have with Jimenez?

He can refuse being sent to the minors, so that’s not really an option.

Others have mentioned the bullpen, but teams really don’t use long men any more and he can’t throw strikes, so that’s doesn’t seem to work either.

His contract ends after this season, so the Indians could look at releasing him without being hurt long-term.

Whatever happens, Ubaldo Jimenez is pitching for his career with the Indians over the next few starts. That’s just reality.

Stubbs’ Struggles are Worrisome

Before the season started, most baseball experts felt the biggest weakness for the Cleveland Indians would be starting pitching.

It has been, with only Justin Masterson and Zack McAllister showing any consistency thus far. The other three spots in the rotation seem to be wish, hope, and pray to this point in the season.

However, the offense has struggled as well, despite last night’s 19-6 beat down in Houston, and we don’t expect that to continue for much longer. Two time all-star SS Asdrubal Cabrera is hitting just .150 with only four extra base hits. As skipper Terry Francona said the other day, Cabrera’s next 50 at bats could be as hot as he is cold right now.

And 2B Jason Kipnis will start to hit too, as will young 3B Lonnie Chisenhall, who is hitting just .224 with only one walk compared to 15 strikeouts to this point.

Also, CF Michael Bourn will return in another week, and he was off to a great start, hitting .333 through the first ten games.

There is one guy to be concerned about however, and that would be OF Drew Stubbs, because his start seems to be a continuation of the downward spiral his career has been taking.

The eighth overall pick in 2006, the outfielder burst on the scene in 2009, hitting .267 with eight home runs in 42 games that season. That promise showed through even more in 2010, when the big right-handed hitter batted .255 with 22 dingers in his first year as a regular.

It’s been downhill from there as Stubbs’ production has waned while his strikeouts have started to pile up. His power numbers dropped in ’11 to 15 home runs and 14 last year, while striking out 205 times in 2011 and 166 times (in 140 fewer plate appearances) last year.

This season, Stubbs has fanned 19 times in 57 times at the plate, while having just three extra base hits, all doubles. He leads the Indians in whiffing, amazing since the Tribe has notorious swing and miss Mark Reynolds on the roster.

Reynolds, though, has been productive when making contact, leading Cleveland with 6 HR and 17 RBI. Stubbs hasn’t hit one out yet this season, and he hadn’t scored a run this season until last night. While that is not totally his fault, it is a telling stat.

With his 3 for 4 evening yesterday, Stubbs is hitting .255 on the season with a 647 OPS. That’s the nature of early season statistics, they can fluctuate greatly with one good game. His batting average was .213 before last night.

To be sure, GM Chris Antonetti and Francona were hoping Stubbs would regain his pop with a different approach and that may still be the case. As we said, it is very early. However, his early difficulties continue the trend from the past three seasons.

It is much like saying it’s only two starts for Ubaldo Jimenez in 2013. You have to remember that this is a continuation of the right-handers struggles since he came to Cleveland in July 2011.

It’s a trend, and when things are going on a downhill plane, the player needs to show improvement right away.

Stubbs needs to produce soon, because when Bourn is back, he may lose playing time by moving Nick Swisher to RF, Reynolds to 1B, and using a combination of Jason Giambi, Mike Aviles, and Carlos Santana at DH.

The Tribe brass was hoping Drew Stubbs could regain the production of his early career when they dealt for him this winter. Right now, they have to be a little concerned that he won’t.

Tribe Organizational Depth in View Early

The baseball season is just 11 games old, and the depth the Cleveland Indians acquired in the off-season has already been put to the test.

First, the starting rotation had a horrible two turns through, with many pitchers not being able to go more than five innings. That took a toll on the bullpen, so Terry Francona and the front office were able to change on the fly and add an extra relief pitcher.

Of course, the two rainouts helped because they were able to skip a start for the fifth guy in the rotation.

Scott Kazmir made a rehab start with Columbus last night and he is on track to make his first start in Houston this weekend, so Francona got away without having to use somebody he didn’t want to use.

With the nagging elbow injury for 2B Jason Kipnis, the skipper has had to use Mike Aviles and Ryan Raburn, both established major league players, to fill in. This is different from having to use players like Aaron Cunningham, Austin Kearns, or Luis Valbuena as substitutes.

Aviles was the starting shortstop for Boston last season, and although the Sox wound up with virtually the same record as the Indians, both teams fell apart in the last two months, so it wasn’t like either team was like the Astros and Marlins of 2013.

Raburn is also experienced, having appeared in over 100 games three times with the Tigers and hitting double digits in home runs in three different seasons.

Tito has had to alter his catchers early this season too. Carlos Santana hurt his thumb/wrist during the home opener, and Lou Marson hurt his neck in a home plate collision, so Yan Gomes was called up from Columbus, and has done a good job handling the pitchers and also hit a home run on Saturday.

Now, CF Michael Bourn is going to miss perhaps of week’s worth of games with stitches in his finger. No problem. Francona will move Drew Stubbs to center, and he can play Raburn in right, or he can put Nick Swisher in right, use Mark Reynolds at first base and give Jason Giambi some at bats as the DH.

Giambi may be 42 years old, and won the American League MVP in 2000, but he has made his living in recent years by being a productive bat off the bench in Colorado.

Besides Gomes, the added depth also extends to the minor leagues. For example, with Bourn down and Kipnis out, the Tribe called up Cord Phelps, who had an excellent spring and has a very good history of hitting in the minors, to the 25-man roster.

They no longer have to use a player who has no business being in the big leagues.

At other times, they stayed longer with a struggling player because they didn’t have a better option available. This was the case with Johnny Damon last season.

And that bodes very well for the success of this ballclub. You have to have options because things never work out the way it is planned in the off-season. In the past few years, this organization had few alternatives.

This year, the depth they’ve accumulated is being put to the test before the first month of the season plays out.

Tribe Strengths, Weaknesses Show in First Week

Week one of the new baseball season has come and gone, and it is always funny to hear fans go crazy about one week of a 26 week season.

If the same results happened in late June, no one would think anything of it. This would apply to being shutout on back-to-back nights, which happened to the Cleveland Indians this week.

Because of the extremely small sample size, results in the first week are greatly magnified. No one really thinks (at least we hope not) that Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera will hit .100 for the season, yet there they are, struggling at the onset of the new campaign.

On the other hand, let us get supporters ready for the reality that Justin Masterson will not win every one of his starts in 2013.

Still, one thing that could be a trend for the Tribe is the streaky nature of their offense, mostly because of the contact issues of many of the hitters in their everyday lineup. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the hitting had a few instances where they have problems scoring, just like they did in the first two games of the Tampa Bay series.

And the reason for that is they have a lot of all or nothing hitters. The trade-off to this is they will have streaks where they probably bludgeon their opponents as well, just like they did on Sunday afternoon in a 13-0 win.

It’s still better than last year, when the Indians had one of the worst offenses in baseball and had several hitters in their lineup where the opposing pitcher could relax during a game.

The other weakness that raised its ugly head was the starting pitching, which provided three or four (depending on how you feel about Zack McAllister’s outing on Friday night) good starts and three bad ones, most notably Brett Myers start in game three and Ubaldo Jimenez’ start in yesterday’s home opener.

That the worrisome thing about this year’s Indians, can the starters give them a chance to win on a night in, night out basis. That didn’t happen in Myers start, and it didn’t happen against New York.

Many fans and media members are concerned about Myers, who didn’t have a good spring and then pitched home run derby, Canadian style. But Myers has been better than Jimenez in the time period that has occurred since the latter was traded here in 2011.

Jimenez looked very good in his first start, but that’s exactly the thing that ticks people off most. In his second start, he was back to the Ubaldo we saw last season: unable to throw strikes consistently, his velocity down, and a lack of concentration that resulted in a stolen base by Chris Stewart, the Yankee catcher who had such a big jump he went in standing.

McAllister gave manager Terry Francona a good start, but he again gave up runs after his defense let him down, allowing two insurance runs in what was a 2-0 game after an error by 3B Mike Aviles. Francona said the big right-hander tries too hard to pick up his defense when miscues happen and that could be the cause of his problems allowing unearned runs.

Trevor Bauer had trouble locating his fastball in his start, walking seven in five innings, but he showed his stuff was good, allowing just three runs. If he can throw strikes with the heater, he could help before the year is out.

No overreactions here, just observations. However, nothing that happened in the first week should change any preconceived notions about the Cleveland Indians.

Young Vets Ready to Make Impact for Tribe

Much of the optimism for this year’s Cleveland Indians has centered on the money spent by the Dolan ownership, which resulted in the signing of free agents Nick Swisher, Mark Reynolds, Michael Bourn and Brett Myers.

However, another reason for the Tribe’s improvement offensively will come from three young players who have been on fans’ radar for more than a year. These three, 2B Jason Kipnis, LF Michael Brantley, and 3B Lonnie Chisenhall are poised to take the step into being better than average players at their position.

Kipnis, who will be 26 next week, burst on the scene when he joined the team half way through the 2011 season, posting a 841 OPS in 150 at bats. He got off to a solid start to the 2012 season, hitting .280 with 8 HR and 30 RBI through the end of May.

The pitchers adjusted after that and Kipnis hit just .246 with 6 HR and 46 RBI the rest of the season. He didn’t slug over .400 in any month for the balance of the year.

Besides the different way he was being pitches, fatigue also may have been a factor because it was difficult to give Kipnis a day off because the Indians had very little depth. This year, that shouldn’t be a factor.

The “JK Kid” has a great track record of hitting in the minors (863 OPS in almost 1000 at bats), so we feel confident he will bounce back and more resemble the ’11 edition of Kipnis rather than the guy who struggled the last four months in 2012.

Brantley has spent time in the big leagues every year since 2009, so it seems like he should be older than 26, which he will turn in May. He had his best season last year, hitting .288, 6 HR, 60 RBI, 750 OPS, but has steadily improved in each of the last three seasons, and at his age that should continue in ’13.

His improvement has come in both his on base percentage and slugging percentage, so it wouldn’t be a stretch if he could get the OPS over the 800 mark this season, which would make him a very good offensive player. He had 47 extra base hits in 2012, and as he gets stronger, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that some of the 37 doubles he had last year start to fly over the fence.

That extra base hit number represents an increase of 12 from the year before. It wouldn’t be a shock if Brantley had close to 60 extra base knocks in 2013, figure about 45 doubles and 15 homers.

Chisenhall, 24, is finally free of the managers’ infatuation with defense at the hot corner and will get his shot at being the everyday third baseman. He has 12 HRs in 350 big league at bats, which figures to 17 dingers in 500 plate appearances.

His struggles against southpaws are overblown because he’s had only 88 at bats vs. lefties in his brief time in the bigs, and still has managed five homers in those chances. That’s not to say we wouldn’t give him a day off against a guy like C.C. Sabathia, but he should get an opportunity to play virtually everyday.

He’s had a monster spring, which doesn’t always translate, but he has a smooth left-handed swing, and seems to be more selective at the plate. That may be because Terry Francona basically told him the job was his to lose and he relaxed at the dish.

These three guys, along with the free agent acquisitions, are the reason the Indians’ offense will be much better than the past two seasons. They will allow Francona to play most days with tough outs throughout the lineup.

American League teams need seven out of nine guys to be able to provide quality at bats. The Tribe has that in 2013.

Sorry, Starting Pitching Ifs Spell 4th Place for Tribe

There is no question the Cleveland Indians are an improved baseball team in 2013.

There is no question the front office and ownership breathed new life into what has been a stagnant franchise over the last three or four years.

There is also no question that the American League is filled with good to very good teams, and that it looks like only the Twins and Astros have no realistic chance to contend for a playoff spot in 2013.

That’s why it is difficult to make the next statement. The Cleveland Indians will finish fourth once again this season.

It won’t be the same kind of fourth place team as last season, one in which the Tribe lost over 90 games.

The Indians will stay in contention most of the season and should finish over the .500 mark. They may finish 4^th and still be within 10 games of first place at the end of the season.

But as the team stands right now, they don’t seem to be better than the Tigers, Royals, and White Sox.

Why?

Starting pitching.

The Indians simply don’t have enough to win based on the guys who are opening the season.

Justin Masterson has a good arm, but tends to lose his release point and when that happens, we struggles to get it back. He is prone to big innings because of that trait. If he can throw strikes he can be a quality pitcher.

Still, he’s had three years as a starter in the majors and in only one of them has his ERA been under 4.00.

Ubaldo Jimenez has looked much better this spring than he did last year, and he is throwing strikes. However, his ERA since coming to the Tribe is over 5.00 and he’s made over 40 starts with Cleveland.

Brett Myers is a workman like guy who provides solid innings and lots of them. He’s not an ace of the staff guy though.

Zack McAllister showed promise after being called up in the middle of last season, but he doesn’t have a full year of major league experience, so it is tough to depend on him.

Scott Kazmir was pitching in an independent league last season, and although he has a great comeback story, you wouldn’t want to bet your house on him giving Francona 25 quality starts this season.

Last year, the Indians staff ERA was 4.78 while the league average was 4.08. That means new pitching coach Mickey Calloway needs to shave more than a half run per game to be just average.

The pitchers would have to do even better to rank in the top half of the league in this category.

The two hopes are Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, who will be in Columbus’ rotation to start the year. Perhaps they can provide a boost should the rotation struggle.

Offensively, the Tribe lineup is much deeper replacing the Jack Hannahans and Casey Kotchmans of the world with players like Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and Lonnie Chisenhall.

They also have alternatives if something doesn’t work out. For example, if Drew Stubbs hits like he did last year (.213 with 610 OPS), Francona can move Swisher back to RF, put Mark Reynolds at 1B, and use Mike Aviles and Jason Giambi at DH.

Last year’s squad had little power and little speed, meaning they needed three hits in an inning to score. In the off-season, GM Chris Antonetti added two players who hit more than 20 HRs last year (Swisher and Reynolds), and two more who stole 30 bases or more (Bourn and Stubbs).

Add in the continued development of Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, and Chisenhall, and throw in the steady Asdrubal Cabrera, and this team should be able to put runs on the board.

However, it all comes down to stopping the other team from scoring and there are too many question marks in the rotation.

If Jimenez and Masterson can get their ERAs under 4.00, this team has a chance to make the post-season and possibly win the division.

This is a talented team and it will play exciting baseball. But right now, fourth place is where they will end up.

Tribe Starting Pitching Still a Bit Scary

Indians’ GM Chris Antonetti did a major rehaul over the off-season to his baseball team, mostly concentrating on the offense, adding Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, and Mark Reynolds to what was a moribund attack in 2012.

As for the starting pitching, not so much. He did sign veteran free agent Brett Myers to provide innings, and he traded for highly regarded Trevor Bauer to give help down the road, but overall he was hoping for bounce back seasons from Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez.

Now we understand this is spring training, and things may be totally different down the road, but so far we haven’t seen anything that makes us any more confident about the starting rotation when the season begins a week from Tuesday in Toronto.

Both pitchers have done okay, but they don’t look like the top of the rotation guys that Detroit (Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer), Chicago (Chris Sale, Jake Peavy), and even Kansas City (James Shields) have.

Masterson doesn’t have bad numbers in camp, allowing the same number of hits as innings pitched and striking out 19 in 17-2/3 innings. But in the Tribe’s first televised game last Sunday, he gave up two home runs in a five run first.

That didn’t exactly inspire confidence that much has changed from 2012.

Jimenez is serving up batting practice in Goodyear, but he’s not exactly dominating either. While his walks are down and he’s throwing strikes (just three walks in 18 innings), he’s allowing hits by the boatload, giving up 26 thus far this spring.

Neither pitcher has shown an ability to limit damage either after starting an inning poorly. That may be due to not having stamina as of yet, but it is concerning because it was a problem for both last season.

Right now, it appears that Cleveland has a bunch of #3 and #4 starters, but no clear-cut ace at this point.

They do have more depth than at this time last season, with Zack McAllister showing signs he may be a solid major league starters, and it is likely that both Carlos Carrasco and Bauer will start the season in Columbus.

Myers has a long history of being a solid starter, but he’s an innings eater type, not a top of the rotation guy. That’s not to say those guys aren’t important. If Myers can go out there every fifth day and provide six or seven solid frames, that’s invaluable to a pitching staff.

McAllister had solid numbers in ’12, his first extended look at big league hitters. He has the potential to move up in the pecking order this season, but still has to develop consistency on an outing to outing basis.

The Tribe’s fifth starter will likely be Scott Kazmir, who is intriguing because he is coming off a year where he pitched in an independent league. Kazmir is a former big league all-star, and has regained the velocity he once had. Still, it’s hard to see him as the ace of the staff this season.

There is no question the Indians will score more runs than 2012, they have replaced many of the holes their lineup had with established major league hitters.

However, whatever success the Tribe has in 2013 will depend on the success of the starting pitching. Terry Francona needs someone to step up and be a guy the team feels can win every time they take the mound.

Right now, it doesn’t look like that guy will be on the team when Opening Day hits. The biggest hopes may be Carrasco and Bauer, both of whom have ace “stuff”.