Can Tribe Count on Ubaldo?

Going into the 2012 season, most experts agreed that the Cleveland Indians best chance to contend for the post-season was for Ubaldo Jimenez to have a big season.

The big right-hander, acquired from Colorado at the trade deadline last season, could form a formidable one-two punch with Justin Masterson, giving the Tribe two solid starting pitchers.

Right now, having Jimenez put together two consecutive quality starts would be a victory.

Hopefully, the mechanical adjustment discussed in today’s The Plain Dealer will fix the former Rockie. But if this doesn’t work, it is looking more and more like GM Chris Antonetti didn’t get the ace he thought he was getting.

There is no question Jimenez’ velocity has dipped in recent years. That could be a mechanical issue, an injury to his shoulder, or just age.

According to Baseball Prospectus.com, Jimenez’ average fastball was close to 98 MPH in 2007, his rookie year. It has steadily dropped to 96 MPH in 2010, to 94 MPH in ’11, to 93 MPH this season.

Still, there are plenty of pitchers who don’t throw 95 MPH that win consistently in the big leagues.

The bigger problem is throwing strikes with regularity.

Ubaldo has never had pinpoint control. In recent years, he’s walked 3.7 batters per nine innings. Not exactly a Greg Maddux like figure.

However, it’s not really a problem because he’s averaged around 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. And if you can strikeout twice as many as you walk, it’s one of the signs you are a good pitcher.

He also has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched, another sign of being effective on the mound.

Even last year, in his 11 starts with the Indians, which no one is labeling as a success, Jimenez allowed 68 hits in 65-1/3 innings, and struck out 62 while walking only 27 hitters.

So far, this year he has not put up those kinds of numbers.

The hits per innings pitched isn’t too bad, he’s allowed 30 hits in 28-2/3 innings, although that figure is helped by throwing seven, one hit frames in his first start.

The biggest negative factor is the walks. He’s allowed 20 bases on balls against just 14 strikeouts. It was pointed out that it took him 92 pitches on Tuesday before a Chicago hitter swung and missed. That’s disturbing.

If you walk hitters without the ability to strike anybody out, you have big troubles ahead. That’s where Jimenez is.

The inability to find the strike zone also means the righty can’t get deep into games.

This year, he hasn’t been able to get through six innings in a start since his first start in the second game of the season. Josh Tomlin is a guy who pretty much is a six inning pitcher.

There’s nothing wrong with Tomlin, he’s a good solid starter. But to be sure, the Tribe front office certainly expected more when they traded for Jimenez last July.

So far, he hasn’t delivered it. He’s more of a back of the rotation starter, right now he’s kind of a Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona) clone. Manny Acta can’t be sure what kind of outing he’s going to get when Jimenez toes the rubber.

It’s tough to win and count on a player when his level of performance goes up and down.

It’s still early and there is plenty of time for Jimenez to get straightened out and have a solid season for the Indians. His next start will be Sunday and here’s hoping the adjustment works out.

Because he’s facing one of the AL’s best hitting teams in the Texas Rangers. A tough test for a pitchers who is trying to get himself on the right track.

Is Brantley the Answer at Leadoff?

At the end of the 2008 season, the Cleveland Indians were owed a player from the Milwaukee Brewers as a result of the C.C. Sabathia trade and they selected Michael Brantley as the player to be named later.

The then 21-year-old outfielder was coming off a season in which he hit .319 with a .395 on base percentage, and 28 stolen bases in 108 games at the AA level.

He looked a lot like a guy who could be next in line of leadoff hitting centerfielders, following the lineage of Kenny Lofton and Grady Sizemore.

Brantley’s bigger than Lofton at 6’2″ and 200 pounds, but his offensive game seemed more like his than Sizemore, who hit for more power out of the first spot in the batting order.

He struggled in his first taste of AAA pitching, his average dropping to .267 and his OBP being just .350. Still, he walked more than he struck out in over 450 at bats.

He received a late season call up to Cleveland, and hit .313 with a .358 OBP. At only 22, it seemed like a good start to a major league career.

Starting the year with the big club in 2010, he struggled and was sent back to Columbus where he hit .319 with a .395 OBP in 67 games.

He hasn’t approached those numbers in the big leagues since coming up to stay later in the ’10 season.

Last season, in almost 500 plate appearances, Brantley batted just .266 with a .318 on base average. Not horrible numbers, but just not the profile of a good leadoff man.

Thus far in 2012, the left-handed hitter is batting .250 with a .321 on base percentage. He was hot in the weekend series vs. the Angels, getting two hits or more in two of the three games.

Still, for his career, totalling over 1000 at bats, Brantley has a .316 OBP, a figure more suited to someone hitting in the bottom third of the batting order, not one who should be a table setter.

By contrast, Lofton reached base 36.2% of the time in his first year with the Indians in 1992, increased that figure to .408 the following season. He finished his career with a .372 mark.

Sizemore had a .348 on base percentage in his first full year with the Tribe in 2005, and increased that to .375 in ’06. He currently has a .357 OBP.

The point here is that both Lofton and Sizemore demonstrated a keen ability to get on base early in their careers. They didn’t gain it through experience.

True, Lofton is one of the best leadoff guys in the history of the game, and Sizemore was definitely an impact hitter at the top of the order during his heyday of 2005-08.

But right now, Brantley doesn’t show much ability to be a consistent threat to get on base. Again, he has picked it up in the last few games, but with over 1ooo at bats in the big leagues, getting on base a little under 32% of the time is not acceptable from the top of the order.

This isn’t to say Brantley can’t become a good offensive player in time. He’s still just 25 years old. However, it doesn’t appear he can be a very good leadoff man, despite looking the part.

In the American League, you need to have seven good hitters in the lineup to score enough runs to win. Right now, the Tribe has five (Hafner, Cabrera, Santana, Choo, Kipnis) and Brantley isn’t one.

But he’s the man out of those playing now who may be able to become one. It may just not be in the spot the Indians want him to hit in.

A Notable Week in Cleveland Sports

According to the calendar and weather forecast, this should be another cold week at the end of April.

It’s kind of cruel because of the 1o days of summer that hit northern Ohio in the middle of March. That makes this seasonal weather in April harder to take.

However, it should be an eventful week for Cleveland sports. The Indians are coming home from a tremendous 7-2 trip, which puts them back over .500 after their tough start to the season.

The Browns will be the center of the sports universe because of the NFL Draft which starts on Thursday and runs through Saturday.

And the Cavaliers are finishing up the NBA season with three games, starting tonight in Memphis. At stake for them is where they will wind up in the draft in late June.

Here’s a look at the week that will be:

Indians. The Tribe offense is striking out less and walking more and so far this has led to an attack that is scoring more runs than expected. To be fair, a boatload of those tallies came against the Royals, who are here tomorrow night for a three game series.

One Indian that is red-hot is DH Travis Hafner, currently hitting .359 with an on base percentage of .509. Pronk has even hit two tape measure home runs this young season.

There is no question that when Hafner is healthy, he’s a great offensive player. He has a lifetime OPS of close to 900, an outstanding figure.

However, we have to caution those fans proclaiming that Pronk is back. Remember, when he hit the grand slam to win the game against Toronto on July 7th, he was hitting .347 with an OPS of 994.

He wound up the season at .280 and 811.

If Hafner can stay healthy and productive, he gives Manny Acta an all-star type hitter. The biggest word in that sentence is the first one.

Browns. Enough has been written about what Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert will do with the 13 picks the team has at the end of the week.

There is no question the brown and orange need an influx of talent, particularly playmakers on offense. Look for Heckert to take at least two players who will be able to make a difference when Cleveland has the football, and take them early.

The front office needs to understand this week is the start of the turnaround of the Cleveland Browns. A disgusted fan base may turn into an apathetic one with another 4-12 record in 2012.

Cavaliers. Right now, the Cavs sit with the 5th worst record in the NBA, meaning they would have the fifth best shot at the first overall pick.

However, with three games left, they could wind up with the third worst record or the finish with the 8th worst mark. This wild fluctuation is obviously very important to their future.

We never advocate losing, but with two of the three games being on the road, the lone home game left is with Washington, a winnable contest, it is likely Byron Scott’s team will finish at 22-44.

The wild card is New Orleans, who has won six of their last ten, but whose two remaining games are on the road.

The Cavs-Wizard’s game makes no difference for Cleveland because the wine and gold cannot finish with a worse record than Washington.

Still, we will have a good idea of where GM Chris Grant will be able to pick at the end of this week.

It may not be a huge week on the field or court, but make no mistake. By next Sunday, Cleveland fans will know a little more about the future of their football and basketball squads.