Tag: baltimore orioles

Stats Support Tribe Start

Many times in baseball, statistics do not support a team’s success or lack of it.

For example, last season, the Baltimore Orioles scored just seven more runs than they allowed, but went 93-69 in the standings.  The sabermetric people would say the O’s overachieved.  They did it by having an astounding 29-9 record in one run games.

This year’s Cleveland Indians are no surprise according to the numbers.  Their 19-15 record is legitimate.

The Tribe’s position players are also younger than the league average at 28.4 years of age.  The American League average is 29.1.  And if you take grizzled veteran Jason Giambi out of the equation, Cleveland would have the fourth youngest position players in the AL, behind just Houston, Kansas City, and Baltimore.

That certainly bodes well for the future.

Even better is that the Tribe’s pitchers are the youngest in the league at 27.6 years old, compared to the AL average of 29 years of age.

The Indians average 5.06 runs per game, the second best average in the Junior Circuit, behind only division rival Detroit.  They allow 4.24 runs per contest, a figure that ranks ninth, so there is still room for improvement.

We said prior to the season starting that the Wahoos needed to be in the top half of the league in both categories to be serious contenders.  They are close right now, ranking 8th in ERA.

As for the other key offensive numbers, the Indians rank 4th in on base percentage, and lead the American League in slugging percentage and OPS.  They are 3rd in batting average, but are fourth from the bottom in drawing walks.  That is a number they will need to improve upon, as pitchers down the road may prey on their aggressiveness.

While many fans (including us) were worried about strikeouts, the Indians aren’t even in the top half of the league in striking out, ranking ninth.  No Indians ranks in the ten of the league in whiffing.

The Tribe power hasn’t just been home runs (they lead the AL), but they also rank fifth in doubles and third in triples.  They’ve been hitting for extra bases a lot.

As for the pitching, it has joined the hitting in feast or famine mode, being tied for the league lead in shutouts with five (with Texas, Tampa Bay, and Seattle).  It says a lot about the stuff of the Indians’ pitchers that they lead the AL in allowing the least hits per nine innings.  They also rank fifth in the league in strikeouts.

However, there are a couple of areas of concern.  Cleveland pitchers are walking more than the average team, ranking sixth in the league in walks allowed.  They also are third from the bottom in innings pitched by starters so far this year, ahead of just Houston and Minnesota.  Although Terry Francona has kept 13 pitchers on the roster for much of the season, there is a fear of burning out the relief corps, which is a huge strength for this team.

This team doesn’t have any weird anomalies or getting a great deal of luck involved in a pretty good start.  Francona’s bunch are playing good solid baseball.  They are 8-5 in games decided by one run, another good stat.  Good teams win blowout games.

Right now, the Cleveland Indians are no fluke.

KM

A First Analysis of the Tribe

The Indians’ front office will disagree with evaluating the team at this time, but after the first game of today’s doubleheader against the White Sox, the Tribe has played 27 games, or one-sixth of the schedule.

The standings say the Indians are in first place in the AL Central Division with a two game lead over the Tigers.

Although many locally are quick to proclaim Cleveland contenders, it is too early to make that claim.  You can’t win the division in April, but you can lose it, and the Indians have played well and are still in it after the first month.

Before you start ordering playoff tickets, remember that the team with the best record in the AL is the Baltimore Orioles, and no one thinks they can win the Eastern Division.

At this point, the Tribe ranks 8th in the league in runs scored, and 9th in the AL in ERA, ranking virtually in the middle of both categories.

Those numbers seem to say that Cleveland is a .500 type team.  Their runs scored vs. runs allowed say their record should be 13-13, so they have been a little lucky so far.

This is reflected in their mark in games decided by one run, which is 6-1.  Success in these games is not indicative of a good or great team.  The ’10 Orioles were 29-22 in these games, yet finished 66-96.

Still, teams with good bullpens and average offenses play a lot of close games, and can win them by holding opponents from adding on.  Heck, it’s better to win them than to lose them.

Going back to runs scored vs. runs allowed, it is clear that to be a contender, the Indians will have to improve in both areas.

Offensively, Manny Acta is still looking for at least one more productive hitter.  Perhaps it can be Johnny Damon or Michael Brantley, but based on the past, you have to feel 3B Jack Hannahan’s numbers will regress at least a bit.

The biggest concern should be 1B Casey Kotchman, who is hitting .163 with a 506 OPS at this point.  If Kotchman went 10 for his next 20, he’d still be hitting .230, which doesn’t cut it if you want to contend.

And let us repeat:  No matter who good he is defensively, it doesn’t make up for being non-productive with the bat.

It is doubtful the Indians want to bring up Matt LaPorta from Columbus, so perhaps Shelley Duncan will get some reps at first, or maybe Lonnie Chisenhall gets a call (when he’s healthy again) with Hannahan moving to 1B.

As for the pitching, we detailed last week how important Ubaldo Jimenez is to this ballclub winning.  Hopefully, he turned the corner after yesterday’s great performance against the Rangers, but until he shows that kind of pitching regularly, he’s still a question mark.

Josh Tomlin is another starter who need to throw like he did in the first half of last year.  He’s had five outings, including one in relief, but only one could be considered good (8 IP, 1 ER vs. Seattle).

He and Jimenez need to get deeper into games, in order to take a burden off the relief corps, which has been overworked thus far.

If the bullpen collapses later in the year because of overuse, it could be devastating.  The Indians do have some relief depth in the minors in guys like C.C. Lee and rapidly rising Cody Allen, and southpaw Nick Hagadone is already here, but losing games late can be a tough thing to overcome.

So, what can be decided about the 2012 Indians?  They are still in it!  They haven’t played their way out of contention, but they do have areas they need to shore up.

After another 27 games, the picture could get a little clearer.

KM