Tag: anthony edwards

Cavs Getting Threes From Good Shooters

It seems the NBA is going through a controversy about the three-point shot. Watching some games, it seems like all that is missing is the rack of balls used doing the contest on All-Star Saturday night.

One of the games’ best young players, Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards, is shooting over 10 threes per game (he’s making 42.4%), and Boston’s Jayson Tatum is doing the same. In all, five players are shooting that kind of volume.

Four of the guys ranking in the top ten in attempts are shooting less than 36% from distance. We know the analytics say making 33% of the threes is the same as shooting 50% from the field, but our numbers show a made two-point shot is better than a missed three-point shot.

This brings us to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Many people have talked about their shooting this season, but they rank just 10th in the league in taking shots from beyond the arc, but they lead the NBA in percentage, knocking down 39.9%.

The teams who have taken the most threes are Boston (13th in percentage made), Chicago (9th), Charlotte (17th), Golden State (12th), and Minnesota (14th).

What we think that says about the wine and gold is they aren’t just shooting threes to shoot them, they are getting quality looks and having good shooters take those shots.

The Cavaliers who have taken the most threes are Donovan Mitchell (9.2), Darius Garland (6.8), Sam Merrill (5.5), Georges Niang (4.6), and Dean Wade (4.3). Two of those players, Merrill and Niang have reputations as snipers, meaning they are first and foremost long-distance shooters.

Mitchell is knocking down 40.4% from beyond the arc and Garland is at 41.8%. The two players with the reps are at 33.3% (Merrill) and 36.3% (Niang). Wade is shooting just 30.5%, and we wish he would not take as many shots from outside.

Wade is a career 36.4% three-point shooter, but if you take out his seven best three-shooting games (yes, we know he had them) in which he knocked down an unreal 38 of 57 shots, his career percentage drops to 33.4%.

What we are saying is that if his first couple long range shots don’t fall, he probably should get closer to the basket.

Other Cavs’ players have been super-efficient from long range. Isaac Okoro and Caris LeVert are both making around 49% from three, while Ty Jerome and Evan Mobley are both around 40% as well.

In our mind, the reason for all of the three-point shooting is the success Golden State had from 2015-2019 and the analytics group.

However, the reason for the Warriors’ success were both of their primary long-range shooters, Stephan Curry and Klay Thompson, both knocked down over 40% from behind the line.

People always talk about Trae Young’s range, but he’s 35.2% from three. LaMelo Ball likes to hoist them too, but he’s 37.2% for his career, and around 35.5% over the last two years.

It’s one thing to take three-point shots, it’s another to make them. Part of the Cavaliers’ early success is having good shooters taking good shots. Shooting them doesn’t make a team effective, making them does.

Season Continues Or No, Altman Has Key Decisions This Summer

With the season suspended due to COVID-19, the league that shutdown first, the NBA, is wondering what they should do when play can begin again.

While they would probably want to play some regular season games, at least to get players and teams in somewhat of a routine before the playoffs start, we believe the league should go right into the post-season.

In the Eastern Conference, there is a 5-1/2 game gap between 8th seed Orlando and the team with the ninth best record, the Washington Wizards.

In the West, the separation is 3-1/2 game between Memphis, who currently holds the final playoff spot and Portland.

With most teams having only 17-18 games remaining, it is doubtful any team currently qualifying for the post-season would drop off.  Yes, we understand it is mathematically possible, not in reality, not likely.

If that is the way the NBA goes forward, then the Cavaliers have the second worst record in the NBA, and by rules, would have a 14% chance at the first pick (the highest odds along with Golden State and Minnesota), and could not fall lower than the 6th overall pick.

According to NBADraft.Net, the top six players right now are as follows–

Anthony Edwards, Georgia  6’5″ Guard
LaMelo Ball, 6’8″ Point Guard
James Wiseman, Memphis (sort of) 7’1″ Center
Obi Toppin, Dayton 6’9″ Forward
Cole Anthony, North Carolina 6’2″ Guard
Jaden McDaniels, Washington 6’10” Forward

Who should Cavs’ GM Koby Altman select?

That really depends on what decisions the team makes regarding the talent currently on the roster.  Can Collin Sexton and Darius Garland play together?  Making that decision is probably the key to everything else.

Our opinion is they can’t, and not because of any flaw in either player’s game.  It’s because it is tough to be effective defensively, even in today’s NBA playing two guards under 6’3″.

And yes, we understand Portland has had some success, but to us, that’s the outlier not the norm.

And don’t forget the most impressive rookie for Cleveland this season, Kevin Porter Jr. and Dylan Windler, who hasn’t played all year.

What we mean is this…if you get the first overall pick, the Cavs really can’t take Edwards, Ball, or Anthony without moving either Garland or Sexton.  We are not saying they don’t know that, but obviously you would get a decent piece for either player if they are dealt.

Obviously, the best fits for the wine and gold would be the big men, Wiseman, Toppin, and McDaniels.  The one who figures to help most immediately would be Toppin, who played two years as a Flyer, and is 22 years old.

He would seem to be able to step in at small forward, moving Cedi Osman either to a true swingman, coming off the bench to play both guard and forward, or to the starting #2 guard spot.

Toppin doesn’t have a comparable player on the site, but Wiseman, just 19, is more of a true center (compare to Hassan Whiteside/DeAndre Jordan).  If you select him, then Andre Drummond is likely gone after next season.

McDaniels, while talented, looks to be a project, weighing just 185 pounds.  He will need to add weight and muscle to be more than a bench player in his rookie season.  And you never know how big men with slight builds develop as NBA players.

Do they become Chris Bosh or Marquise Chriss?

This is a rather large off-season for Altman because of the decisions he has to make with his young backcourt.  He has three first round picks from the last two draft who are ideally guards, and only two can play.

And it is difficult to ask young guys to come off the bench in 6th man roles.  Sexton, Garland, Porter…which two are wearing wine and gold next season?

MW