Tag: andrew luck

Need A QB? Better Draft One In Round One

To draft a quarterback or not to draft a quarterback? That’s the debate raging amongst Browns’ fans and media as the NFL Draft approaches at the end of April.

We looked at the quarterbacks taken early in the draft from 2014-2023. We did not look at last year, because even with the success of Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix leading their teams to the playoffs, we don’t like to evaluate QBs based on one season.

There were 31 quarterbacks taken in the first round from 2014-2023, and 15 of them are currently starters in the league. At least for now. Anthony Richardson (’23) is included as the starter for Indianapolis, and the rumors are the Colts would like to replace them.

Based on that number half of the starting signal callers in the NFL right now were taken in the first round in this span. In reality, it’s a higher percentage because we have five teams who right now do not have a legitimate starter: Jets, Steelers, Browns, Raiders, and Giants.

So why do the Browns need to use a first round pick to draft a QB? Current data says 56% of the teams in the NFL have done it.

Now, let’s look at the teams with the best record in the league last season. Kansas City and Detroit were both 15-2 and they had Patrick Mahomes (10th overall in 2017) and Jared Goff (1st overall in 2016) at the helm.

The Vikings (14-3) had Sam Darnold (3rd overall in 2018) and Buffalo (13-4) has Josh Allen (7th overall in 2018). The lone exception of the best regular season records are the Super Bowl champion Eagles, who selected Jalen Hurts in the 2nd round in 2020.

To see if this is the exception, let’s look at 2023. The Ravens (13-4) had the best record and their QB is Lamar Jackson (32nd overall in 2018). Detroit, San Francisco, and Dallas were next at 12-5 and two of those squads have outliers in Brock Purdy (7th round) and Dak Prescott (4th round).

Of the 11 win teams, Buffalo (Allen), Miami (Tua Tagovailoa, 5th overall in 2020), Kansas City (Mahomes), Philadelphia (Hurts), and the Browns (the famed four QB season), three used first round QBs.

Obviously, teams can have great luck at the most important position in professional sports. Hurts, Prescott, and Purdy have all had success in the NFL, but that’s three out of 32 teams, less than 10%. In this age of gambling on anything sports related, does anyone really like those odds?

The proliferation of taking passers high in the draft comes and goes. In 2011, there were four taken, but only Cam Newton would be considered successful. The following year, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III were the first two picks, with two more, Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden selected later.

We remember people advocating for the Browns to take Tannehill. That would have been a solid choice.

Since 2016, there have been at least three QBs taken in the first round with the exception of the Kenny Pickett year in 2022. Fifteen quarterbacks have been taken in the top three picks of those nine drafts.

So, do the Browns need to take a quarterback early in this year’s draft? It seems that they do. That’s kind of the way every other team has gotten their guy.

Unless you want to go with luck being your guide. And no, we don’t mean Andrew Luck.

When It Comes Down To It, Have To Find A QB

While the real Super Bowl will take place a week from Sunday, for Browns’ fans the crazy season has started, and because of the Deshaun Watson trade, it has been a long time coming.

The NFL Draft will be here in late April and Cleveland has the second overall pick, and of course, they need a quarterback.

The popular opinion among many fans and media people is to trade down because the next Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning or Joe Burrow is not in this selection cycle. Of course, both of these groups have no input in the process and they both love picks, and the more, the merrier.

And their jobs are not on the line. However, Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski’s probably are. Let’s say they don’t fix the quarterback situation for 2025 either by not getting a capable veteran or a young guy waiting in the wings for the future. Then they are likely on the unemployment line following next season.

Keep in mind, Berry and Stefanski have both been at the Shrine Game and the Senior Bowl and they aren’t there to watch wide receivers and/or linebackers. They are talking to the QB prospects at both All-Star games.

Because they have to get that position right.

Bill Belichick used to love when other teams reached for quarterbacks in the draft because it pushed good players down to where New England picked. Of course, he had Tom Brady, creating a perfect scenario.

When you don’t have a QB, you simply have to get one. The easy thing for many people is to wait for the generational talent to appear the year the Browns happen to have a high draft pick. But that’s not reality.

Cleveland has the opportunity to get one of the two best QB prospects coming into the NFL this season. It’s Berry’s and Stefanski’s job to find out who those players are and take one of them. Right now, the consensus is those passers are Shadeur Sanders and Cam Ward, but maybe going through the process, they like someone else.

If the latter is the case, perhaps they can trade down a couple of spots and still get their guy, but they better know what the other teams they drop behind in the process are going to do.

For us, we like Quinn Ewers out of Texas. He has started 36 games at the college level and has guided his team to the playoffs the past two seasons. He’s completed 65% of his passes at Texas in his three years as a starter.

But the question we can’t answer is how he reads defenses, the most important skill a QB can have. That’s what Berry and Stefanski need to find out.

All that said, the ideal situation would still be to find a veteran quarterback who can come in and start next season, while the rookie sits, learns, and maybe gets a start or two at the end of the season.

Trading down, getting a pass rusher to pair with Myles Garrett, getting another shutdown corner, all of those things are important. But the Browns have to find a QB and they need to keep taking swings until they find one.

That’s NFL reality.