Fans Should Know It’s Silly Season In The NFL.

The NFL Draft is a little over a week away and therefore, we have entered the silly season.

It’s a period where people will hear a lot of rumors and comments from a team’s executives and those comments could be made just to create a smoke screen for other teams.

It’s probably more subterfuge than there needs to be.

Earlier this week, fans were up in arms when Cleveland GM Andrew Berry said there wasn’t much difference between playing right tackle and left tackle in today’s game.

Was Berry being serious?  Was he underestimating the switch in positions?  Or was he trying to let other teams know the Browns may not be drafting a left tackle with the 10th overall pick in next week’s draft?

The answer could be one of those choices or none of them.  But the other teams in the NFL don’t know that.

Fans of the Browns and all other NFL teams should be ready for a bunch of unfounded information being put out there and much of it would make no sense for the teams involved.

Just yesterday, there was a report out of New York that the Browns are looking at a deal with Minnesota for Odell Beckham Jr. in which Cleveland would get a 2nd round and a 5th round pick in the 2021 draft.

Are the Browns shopping Beckham?  Maybe, as we have noted before, his production has slipped over the past few years, but unless he’s a major pain in the rear end in the locker room, it would be odd to think Berry would take that little return for the former All Pro wideout.

There have also been reports that the Bengals are listening to offers for the first overall pick.  Of course they are, why wouldn’t they listen.  Let’s say Kansas City offers them Patrick Mahomes, do you think they would make that trade?  Of course they would.

But KC isn’t making that offer.  Still, the Bengals have nothing to lose by listening to the offers, right?

Our guess is the Bengals will indeed take Joe Burrow with the first overall pick, hoping they have their franchise quarterback.

There is probably a grain of truth in any of these rumors.  And we are sure there is plenty of talk among the general managers in the NFL going on right now.  Groundwork is being laid for possible moves during the draft.

But that doesn’t mean some of the crazy things you will hear in the next eight days are close to becoming reality.  It’s posturing.

The personnel people with various teams want certain players they really like to fall to them, so they put out false information hoping to see someone to jump up ahead of them, so the player falls to them.

So what we are saying is just relax when you hear some of the crazy stuff being reported over the next week or so.  On the other hand, you are football fans so you probably can’t help yourself.

The people on sports talk radio are happy, that’s for sure.

MW

The New Browns’ Front Office Looks Fine. On Paper.

The Cleveland Browns made some big moves on the first day of NFL free agency, inking TE Austin Hooper, RT Jack Conklin, and QB Case Keenum to big deals.

Hooper and Conklin are typical of the way GM Andrew Berry likes to handle free agency, signing proven, solid players coming off their rookie contracts.  Barring injury, those types of players should still be improving.

We think about the year the Browns signed Karlos Dansby and Donte Whitner to big deals, only to have them play well for one season, and then regress in performance.

Berry and his front office and building not only for this season, but the next few years as well, even giving Hooper and Conklin deals weighted for this season, because he knows it will be time to pay Myles Garrett, Baker Mayfield, Denzel Ward, and perhaps Nick Chubb very soon.

The conservative, but aggressive approach continued the rest of the week.  We’ll explain that term.  The Browns are aggressive trying to fill holes,  they’ve signed safeties, linebackers, defensive line depth, and even a kick returner.

However, the conservativeness comes in because they are signing these players to one year contracts.  And we will repeat what we (and others) say all the time…there is no such thing as a bad one year contract.

Think about it.  Even if the player signed is terrible, you can cut him and there are no ramifications beyond this season.  You are done with the player and the contract.  We say the same thing in baseball.

The oldest players Berry inked were 32-year-old S Andrew Sendejo, who was brought in not only for need, but for veteran leadership, and 28-year-old CB Kevin Johnson, a former first round pick in 2015 (16th overall from Wake Forest).

Cleveland also signed another former first rounder in Karl Joseph, the 14th overall pick in 2016 out of West Virginia.

Our opinion is the Browns are going to go heavy on defense in the upcoming NFL Draft, and the players they signed on that side of the football are basically on one year tryouts.

If they succeed, then the team can negotiate an extra year or two to keep them around, but if they aren’t impactful or if the rookie drafted to play the position looks like he’s a player, then they will be allowed to hit free agency in 2021.

When you think about it, that’s a win/win for the Browns.  And that’s where analytics comes in.  It makes you think about the percentages, and whether or not a player at a certain position is worth keeping at big money.

The big test will likely come with Chubb, when he is due to an extension.  The effectiveness of running backs long term isn’t very good, so the Browns will have to ask themselves if they want to give a big extension to Chubb, as good as he has been for the Browns in his first two seasons.

All these moves have been made and the Browns still have almost $50 million under the cap.  Remember, next year they have to pay Garrett, so they should be able to keep all of their key pieces and keep one of the game’s best pass rushers.

For those who were concerned about the “computer guys” running the Browns, the proof will come when they start playing games.  Right now though, it seems like the Paul DePodesta/Andrew Berry combination has done a pretty solid job.

MW

Browns Dispel Myth They Aren’t Interested In Winning Now.

The Cleveland Browns’ front office erased any doubts that winning would not be a priority in 2020 with a trio of free agent signings on the first day.

With Paul DePodesta and Andrew Berry running things, there were people who felt they would be involved in accumulating assets for a run in 2021, rather than getting to the playoffs next season.

But signing a two starters in TE Austin Hooper and RT Jack Conklin, along with an experienced backup QB who can play if there is an injury in Case Keenum, signals a “go for it” mentality.

The first thought for many is tight end is not the primary need for the Browns, but a right tackle certainly is, and at some point they needed a quarterback.

Hooper and Conklin do continue this front office’s history of signing players coming off their first contracts.  Hooper won’t turn 26 years old until November, and has increased his number of receptions, yardage, and touchdowns in every season (4 total years) of his career.

He made the Pro Bowl in each of the last two years.

When Baker Mayfield was at Oklahoma, one of his favorite targets in the red zone, was TE Mark Andrews, now with Baltimore.  Andrews caught 22 touchdown throws in Mayfield’s three years with the Sooners.

So, a reliable tight end is important to this quarterback.

We also do not think this means David Njoku’s days are numbered in Cleveland.  Remember, Kevin Stefanski used a lot of two tight end sets as offensive coordinator in Minnesota.

Conklin figures to start at right tackle and he will be 26 by the time the regular season starts.  He has to be an upgrade over Chris Hubbard, who figures to be released soon.

And his contract is front loaded, meaning he will make less with the team has to reach new deals with both former overall  first round picks in Myles Garrett and Baker Mayfield.

Both players are “plug and play” guys, and both are young enough to fit in with the young core of talent the Browns have put together the past five years.

Keenum just turned 32 years old, but is the insurance policy/mentor for Mayfield.  He has started 62 games in the NFL, going 27-35 in those starts, and has opened the season as the starter his past three seasons in the NFL.

This approach differs from the past couple of off-seasons where John Dorsey signed players close to 30 on shorter deals.  They didn’t go for the big ticket items.

Prior to Dorsey’s arrival, the Browns went for J.C. Tretter and Kevin Zeitler.  You’d have to say that was a more successful approach.

The Browns still have holes at left tackle and on the defensive side of the football, most notably at linebacker and safety as well as depth on the line.

We may still see some lesser free agents to address the depth, and of course, there still is a little thing called the NFL Draft to fill some more of the holes.

Right now, we would guess Berry and his crew would look for the left tackle in the first round of the draft, with the rest of the selection process being devoted to the defensive side of the football.

It doesn’t matter if you win the off-season.  But signing solid young players who should be able to start right away?  Have to say it is difficult to complain about that.

MW

Browns Changing Their Defensive Personnel. And Why Not?

The Cleveland Browns have made several moves so far this off-season, most of them involving players on the defensive side of the football.

When you look at it, it seems to make sense.  Cleveland ranked 21st in the NFL in defense a year ago, and against the run, it was even worse.  The Browns were 30th (third worst) in the league in allowing rushing yards.

Why wouldn’t the new front office, led by GM Andrew Berry, want to fix the worst part of the team?

Now, you can argue about how they’ve gone about it, such as letting Joe Schobert, who made two Pro Bowls, walk away in free agency, but our view is let’s wait and see the approach of the personnel department in trying to fix the defense.

Yes, we understand the defense looked much worse last season after Myles Garrett’s suspension, but one player, even a great one like Garrett, shouldn’t impact that side of the football so much.

They need to get better without Garrett so he can get rest during games without the threat of the opposition going 80 yards in four plays with him on the sidelines.

Schobert was a solid linebacker against the pass, but he didn’t make a huge impact in the running game, really no one did.  My guess is the front office didn’t want to pay a Lexus price for a Ford player.  We will find out if they are right.

It could also be as simple as Schobert not fitting the mold of a middle linebacker that new defensive coordinator Joe Woods wants.

As for Christian Kirksey, his problem was availability is an ability too, and out of 32 games the past two seasons, Kirksey played in nine.

According to reports, the Browns tried to reach an agreement with Kirksey, but he wanted more money than Cleveland thought a man who played in less than 30% of the games over the last two years was worth.

The next order of business for the front office is the fate of Olivier Vernon, who came over in the Odell Beckham Jr. trade with the Giants, and is making big money while missing more games in the last three seasons.

Vernon missed four games in 2018, five games in 2019, and six contests with the Browns in 2019.  If he isn’t willing to take a reduction in salary, he likely will end up on the unemployment line.

In addition to linebacker and depth on the defensive line, the Browns also need help at safety.

When Sashi Brown was GM and Berry was part of the front office, the organization looked for young players coming off their rookie contracts in free agency.  You would have to assume that will be the philosophy again.

Three of the top NFL free agents (according to The Sporting News) fit that criteria:  Kansas City DT Chris Jones (25 years old), pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney (26), and Denver safety Justin Simmons (26).  We would all be happy if the Browns signed two of these three players.

The best inside linebacker is the Rams’ Cory Littleton (26).  He would seem to be another target for the Browns.

We view the Cleveland Browns as a playoff contender in 2020 and they have plenty of room under the salary cap.  It’s time to use it to upgrade the team where it needs help.

The new regime has some work to do starting March 18th.

MW

Why Do People Keep Moving The Bar For Browns?

Based on recent history, the Cleveland Browns don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt on anything they do.

It’s been 12 seasons (2007) since the team finished over the .500 mark.  Out of those dozen years, 10 of them have resulted in 10 or more losses, with only the 7-9 campaign in 2014, and 2018’s 7-8-1 mark being exceptions.

So, we can understand the feeling that no matter what the Browns do, it’s the wrong decision.

However, that shouldn’t be a reason to look at the new organization set up as bad either.  While we get the cynicism, let’s all take a deep breath.

It seems most of the football fans in Cleveland got enamored with the prospect of Josh McDaniels being the head coach with one of his friends from New England becoming the general manager.

There were a ton of people who thought this was a done deal, and be the cure-all for what has been ailing the Browns for the past 20 years.

When that didn’t happen, anything Jimmy Haslam and Paul DePodesta did was going to be a failure.  Again, we understand that those two are reaping what they sowed, but it isn’t fair to the people they did hire, coach Kevin Stefanski and GM Andrew Berry.

All the criticism is in the name of the feared word:  ANALYTICS!!!

Forget that Berry was a scout for six years while working for the Indianapolis Colts and then was vice president of personnel for the Browns from 2016 to 2018.  People act like he was some accountant crunching the cost of concessions at First Energy Stadium and the Browns put him in charge.

What the Browns really want is a group of people who can work together.  DePodesta liked Stefanski during the interviews for the head coaching position a year ago, so apparently they get along.

Berry was still with the Browns when those interviews were going on last year, and it has been reported that the new GM and the new coach shared common ideas.

There shouldn’t be any butting heads among this trio, and when was the last time we heard about that in Berea.

Also, let’s also get rid of the notion that John Dorsey didn’t make any bad draft choices or questionable personnel decisions.

While he hit on Baker Mayfield, Denzel Ward, and Nick Chubb in 2018, he also picked Chad Thomas in round three, and Antonio Callaway in the 4th.  And picking Austin Corbett with the 33rd overall selection was a big whiff.

Meanwhile, while Berry was here, Cleveland selected Larry Ogunjobi and Joe Schobert, while Emmanuel Ogbah (5.5 sacks with KC this season) and Carl Nassib (6 sacks with Tampa in ’19) are productive football players jettisoned by Dorsey.

And don’t forget WR Rashard Higgins was in the 2016 class as well.

The fear here is what happens if or when something doesn’t go as planned.  For example, a 7-9 or worse season in 2020.  Then what happens?

Hopefully, the ownership can control themselves from getting rid of this group and starting over again.  Right now, that has to be a concern until proven otherwise.

Or what happens if someone outside the organization tells the Haslams something and they believe this is a better way to reach the playoffs.  That’s another thing that has been a problem in the past.

Let this group do their job and stop pining for something or someone fans thought was going to be the fix to the problems of the Cleveland Browns.  That’s not fear to DePodesta, Stefanski, and Berry.

MW

Browns Continue To Get Younger

The Cleveland Browns cut down to 53 players today, although our guess is that the final roster will won’t be finished for several days.

A common theme since the beginning of last year has been youth.  If your name is not Joe Thomas, and you are over 30 years old, it is very difficult to make this roster.

After the end of last season, we speculated that Desmond Bryant and John Greco might have difficulty being with the team in 2017, and we wound up being correct.  Neither are still wearing brown and orange.

Besides Thomas, only two players have reached their 30th birthday, and one of them is the punter, Britton Colquitt.  Only CB Jason McCourty escaped the wrath of the organization’s obsession with Father Time.

Not that we disagree with what Sashi Brown, Paul DePodesta, and Andrew Berry have done.  They took over a football organization that made one playoff appearance since returning to the NFL in 1999, and never really tried to build through the draft.

From the first year Cleveland returned, they had players like Jerry Ball, Lomas Brown, and John Jurkevic on the roster.

The second and third year, they didn’t have many players over 30 on the roster, and they got to 7-9 in the third year (2001), and made the playoffs in 2002 at 9-7.

After making the playoffs, it seemed like that became the goal, and the organization started adding veterans every year, mostly guys nearing the end of their careers, players like Orpheus Roye, Ross Verba, Jeff Garcia, Trent Dilfer, Joe Andruzzi, Kenard Lang, etc.

Combined with not drafting well, and you can see why the franchise was floundering.

Brown and DePodesta stopped the madness, although many veteran football media people couldn’t see what they were doing.

Outside of Thomas, they unloaded veteran players who were no longer improving.  The only holdover was Thomas, a future Hall of Famer for sure.  And Thomas had to buy into the process, otherwise he would have asked out.

As of right now, 42 of the 53 players on the roster were brought in the past two years, and that doesn’t count players like Christian Kirksey, Joel Bitonio, and Danny Shelton, who are still young guys, but were drafted by Ray Farmer.

The new regime needs to has success, for sure.  We aren’t saying that Brown and DePodesta did the right thing after going 1-15 a year ago.

However, we do feel the team is going in the right direction, and fans shouldn’t be discouraged if the Browns go 4-12 or 5-11 this season.

Why?  Because they will be doing it with a very, very young roster that should continue to improve over the next three or four seasons.

And because the front office seems to be drafting better.  Knock on wood, but it looks like both first round picks, Myles Garrett and Jabril Peppers, can be impact players.

Last year’s choices look to be improved too.  Emmanuel Ogbah, Corey Coleman, Shon Coleman, Derrick Kindred, Joe Schobert, and Seth DeValve look like contributors.

The scouting department has found solid players like Briean Boddy-Calhoun, Tyrone Holmes, and Dan Vitale off the waiver wire.

Whether success comes in the next few years or not, what the Browns are doing is the right thing to do.

We have said it many times, the only thing worse than being a bad team is being a bad, old team.

The Cleveland Browns definitely cannot be considered the latter.

JD

 

 

 

Optimism On Browns Doesn’t Mean Winning

When you are doing something different, you leave your self open for criticism.  That’s what the Cleveland Browns are experiencing this off-season.

Look, we have no idea if the “analytic” approach will work, or whether Sashi Brown, Paul DePodesta, Andrew Berry, and Hue Jackson will get the Browns back to the playoffs.

What we do know is that they can’t be worse than what came before them.

Cleveland has lost ten games or more in seven of the last eight seasons.  They aren’t exactly a model of success.

So, we don’t listen to the national experts about how an NFL franchise is supposed to operate.  We understand that the new front office staff is trying something different, and that is absolutely fine.

Veteran NFL executive Bill Polian made the comment, presumably because of DePodesta’s presence that the Browns were conducting the equivalent of a baseball fire sales.

Polian might have been trying to be snarky, but he is correct.  That is exactly what the Browns are doing.  They are basically gutting the roster and starting over.  And we say why not?

All of the losing has poisoned the locker room.  These guys simply don’t know how to win, and they have been exposed to coach after coach without an idea of how to win, or the enthusiasm to do so.

So, if Jackson comes off as cocky and self-confident, he is a virtual extrovert compared to Eric Mangini, Pat Shurmur, and Mike Pettine.

Think about it, when did any of those guys show one ounce of bounce and pep on the sideline.

Think about how the players, even the good ones, talked as the season went on and the losses piled up over the years.  How many of them were genuinely angry or ticked off?

Exactly.  That’s why one by one, the front office is purging those guys.

It is also funny to hear players offer statements questioning the weight program over the past few seasons.  Apparently, Jackson and his staff looked at Cam Erving, for example, and told him he needed to get a lot stronger.

Why didn’t anyone tell him before now?

We have said it will be apparent this season how poorly this team was coached over the last two seasons.  We will not be surprised at all if players like Danny Shelton, Erving, Nate Orchard, Christian Kirksey, and Ibrahim Campbell can be solid to good NFL players with the correct leadership.

We don’t know how these guys will draft and what their eye for talent is, but they shouldn’t be condemned by the mistakes of the people who came before them.

More veterans will be let go or traded before the beginning of training camp and we are okay with that.  We believe these guys are following our adage, that being the only worse than a bad team is a bad, old team.

So, optimistic may be the wrong word regarding our thoughts on the Browns, perhaps a healthy curiosity is a better choice.  At this point, you have to think that what they are doing makes sense.

And that doesn’t mean we think the Browns are going to win in 2016 either.  If they win three or four games, that’s probably an accurate prediction.

But we can feel good about it as fans if they are doing it with young players and those guys are showing process on a week to week basis.

That would show a promising future, and if they do a good job with this year’s draft, we can all be anxious to see what they can do with another high pick and a bunch of choices later in the draft.

In the meantime, there is nothing wrong with trying something different.  It just may pay off in the long run.

JD