Guards Make Contact, But Need To Know Strike Zone

The Cleveland Guardians have been known over the past two seasons as a team that emphasizes contact, putting the ball in play.

It’s a sound theory. Teams that do not strikeout much tend to be good offensive clubs. After the Guardians, the team in the American League with the least whiffs are Houston (4th in the AL in runs/game), Boston (5th), Toronto (8th), and New York (10th).

The Twins lead the league in striking out, and they are 9th, while Seattle is next and they rank 7th.

We have made note since the season started that making contact is not the same as having plate discipline. The league leader in walks in the AL is Texas, and they lead the league in runs scored.

The next three teams in drawing walks are the Twins, Astros, and Angels (6th in runs).

The Guardians do make a lot of contact, but they are a very young team and very few of them now how to work counts and take advantage of the fact that they can make contact.

Jose Ramirez, who does chase a bit because he understands he is the main man in the batting order, still walks more than he strikes out, with 53 walks and 51 whiffs. And Steven Kwan also is very close to having as many walks as strikeouts (49 BB, 57 Ks).

Here are players currently on the big-league roster with over 100 at bats who have struck out three times as much as they have walked: Andres Gimenez (84:27), Will Brennan (45:11), Gabriel Arias (72:24), Oscar Gonzalez (26:5).

And that speaks to awareness of the strike zone. Hitters always look at the screen when they get back to the dugout, so they see their at bats instantly.

Two players, Gimenez and Bo Naylor, simply can’t lay off the high fastball. Pitchers know that and until something changes, they will continue to exploit it.

And that’s why strike zone judgment is important. If pitchers know a batter will chase pitches, they will continue to throw that pitch until a hitter demonstrates either they can handle it or lay off it.

We were always taught they if a hitter gets ahead in the count, especially 2-0 or 3-1, they should zone in for a particular pitch in a particular area so they can drive it. We watch many of the Guardians’ hitters and there just doesn’t seem to be a plan.

And our guess is that hitting coach Chris Valaika is telling them when to be selective. He certainly isn’t telling them to make weak contact.

We also see a lot of Guardians swinging at first pitches which is fine if the guy on the mound is trying to get ahead of a hitter. If the pitch is out over the plate, fine. But not to pick on Brennan, but we’ve seen him swing at first pitches that are off the inside corner.

That seems like just swinging at it just to swing, not looking for a particular pitch.

As we said before, the Guardians are a very young team and mastering the strike zone can be gained from experience. But making contact doesn’t make you a good hitting team unless you can be selective as well.

Why do we like walks? They aren’t outs. And that’s a good thing.

Talking About The Glut At 2B/SS For The Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians have been collecting middle infield prospects for the past few seasons. They either signed or drafted Tyler Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, Jose Tena, Angel Martinez, and Milan Tolentino.

They traded for Andres Gimenez, Gabriel Arias, and Juan Brito. And this is all in the six or seven years.

Plus, they acquired Amed Rosario in the Francisco Lindor trade.

The theory is sound. Middle infielders are usually great athletes and in high school the best player is usually the shortstop unless he throws left-handed. Because they are great athletes, they are equipped to move around the diamond and play other positions.

For example, we have seen Cleveland move Arias to first base and to right field, when help was needed at both spots.

The problem for the organization is the last time we checked, you can only play two people in a game at the middle infield spots, one at second base and one at shortstop.

So, decisions have to be made, but so far, they haven’t.

After the trade of Rosario to Los Angeles, the Guardians called up Rocchio from AAA, giving them Arias, Rocchio, Freeman, as well as Gimenez, the starting second baseman, on the big league roster.

As we noted, they have used Arias at 1B and RF, and Rocchio has played third as well as shortstop, and Freeman has been used at 2B, SS, and 3B, the latter position usually manned by the team’s resident superstar, Jose Ramirez.

We believe the organization feels (again, opinion) Rocchio is the heir apparent at some point, perhaps next season. He’s probably the best mix or glove and bat.

So, that leads us to ask what should be done with the others? There is no question the Guardians need hitting. They rank 12th in the American League in runs scored.

Freeman, who just turned 24, can hit. He’s a .311 hitter in the minor leagues with a 813 OPS, and at AAA, he batted .289 with a 782 OPS. In the big leagues on a limited basis, he’s batted .267 in 181 plate appearances.

That may not be great, but outside of Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Steven Kwan, no one else on the current roster is doing it.

Why do we like him? To quote Peter Brand in “Moneyball”, he gets on base.

Brito, who will soon be 22 and he has shown to be a very good hitter in the minor leagues, batting .286 with an 877 OPS last season in the Rockies’ organization and batting .293 with an 847 OPS between Lake County and Akron this year.

Our question is why not find spots for these two to play? The Guardians have a gaping hole in the outfield, and they already tried Arias there, so why not Freeman and Brito?

Add in the organization’s philosophy of finding hitters who have good contact rates and teaching them to drive the ball. Both Freeman and Brito put the ball in play.

Robin Yount was an excellent SS who moved to CF later in his career. Rick Manning started as a SS and became a Gold Glove centerfielder. Why not start using Freeman out there to get his bat in the lineup.

As for Brito, we have read scouting reports that say he’s limited to 2B defensively, so why not start moving him to the outfield.

The minor league people will say the players lose value once you move them off the dirt, but are the Guardians trying to have the “most valuable” farm system, or is their goal to win games?

Besides, they have plenty of middle infielders capable of playing the positions at the AAA and AA levels.

Hopefully, when Freeman comes off the IL this week, his name is in the lineup on a daily basis. The organization needs to see if his bat can play at the major league level.

And if Brito is as good a hitter as scouts think, the Guardians need to figure out a way to find him a place to play in Cleveland.

Guardians Make Contact, But Don’t Walk

Last season, the Cleveland Guardians decided to zag when everyone else was zigging and embraced a philosophy of making more contact at the plate. They struck out the least times in the American League, and finished sixth in the league in runs scored per game.

This year, they are doing the same, but have dropped to 12th in the AL in scoring. Last year, they were 14th in home runs and in 2023 they are last.

Other teams have labeled them as pesky, but there is one thing we thought would improve this season, but really hasn’t. Last season, they were 11th in drawing walks and so far this season, they have dropped a spot and rank 12th.

So, while they make contact more than anyone else, they aren’t particularly adept at working counts and fouling off borderline pitches until they get something they can make solid contact with.

The team with the second least strikeouts in the AL is the Houston Astros. They rank 11th in walks drawn and are 8th in runs scored. They are 9th in homers.

Toronto fans the third least times and are one spot above Houston is terms of runs scored and walks, and is one spot behind them in round trippers.

For right now, it appears the contact approach isn’t doing teams any big favors, except for the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are second last in the National League in striking out and is 3rd in the league in runs scored.

Let us say here, we like the more contact approach, and we like the Guardians’ organizational philosophy of drafting and developing guys who make contact and teaching them to drive the ball in the minor leagues.

We also don’t have a problem with strikeouts if it comes with power and without a total disregard for knowledge of the strike zone. Minnesota leads the AL in whiffs, and they aren’t scoring many more runs than the Guardians.

Maybe better recognition of the strike zone comes with more experience and as the young Cleveland hitters mature, they will be able to work more walks. The only Guardian hitter with more walks than whiffs is Jose Ramirez, with 33 bases on balls and 29 punchouts.

Both Andres Gimenez (47 Ks, 15 BB) and Amed Rosario (60K, 19 BB) have strikeout to walk ratios of over three to one. And neither are what you would consider power bats. Myles Straw doesn’t have a home run since 2021 and has fanned 57 times with just 26 walks.

And Will Brennan doesn’t have the amount of at bats as the other three mentioned, but he has just six walks vs. 31 strikeouts. The four hitters listed have combined for 10 home runs.

We would like to see all three of these guys get on base more often by walking, and with their speed (see previous blog) they could be converting some of those walks into doubles by stealing bases.

Currently, Cleveland has no one ranking in the top ten in the AL in on base percentage, Ramirez leads the team at .360 and only Steven Kwan is among the leaders in walks, tied for 10th.

By the way, the Guardians have drawn four or more walks in 29 games this season. Their record is 18-11 in those games, averaging almost six runs per game. We understand that makes sense, because mediocre pitchers usually walk more batters.

Since the Guardians don’t have a lot of home run power, for their approach to work, it would seem they need more baserunners. And taking more walks would accomplish that goal.

Why Have Guardians Stopped Stealing?

When the Cleveland Guardians played the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday night, we heard the broadcast team describe both teams as “they like to run”. The Brewers rank 6th in the National League in steals, while the Guardians are 7th.

The reality is while Cleveland started the season running quite a bit, that has waned as the season has gone on.

The Guards stole 35 bases in March/April in the first 28 games of the year. Since then, they have played 49 games and have only stolen 22 bases. They’ve effectively stopped running.

Granted, they were very successful in the first month, being caught just seven times. In May, they swiped 13 bases and were caught just three times, so when they did run, it worked.

In June, they are just a bit above the break-even point, picking up nine bags, while getting caught on eight attempts.

Cleveland ranks last in the majors in home runs, so it would seem they better use the running game to their advantage because it is unlikely they will score with one swing of the bat.

Some of the lack of running comes from not being on base. The team’s two leaders in steals, Steven Kwan and Myles Straw have seen their on base percentage decrease since April. Kwan stole seven bags in eight tries by the end of April. He’s stolen just three in each month succeeding.

Straw pilfered eight bases in the first 28 games this year, but has stolen just two since, incredibly none since May 18th.

The two other Guardians who would seem to be able to put up big stolen base numbers, Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario have also declined in this category.

Gimenez stole six in March/April being caught just once, but has stolen just two bags since, while Rosario swiped five in the first month, three more in May, and hasn’t even made an attempt since the first of June.

We understand the hesitation in having Rosario run since he hits ahead of Jose Ramirez, but if Ramirez doesn’t get a hit, why not run then?

Jose Ramirez is also a stolen base threat, but we totally get him not running as much. Conserve his energy as much as possible. He’s that important to the team.

This weekend showed a difference in the philosophies between the Brewers and Guardians. Twice, Milwaukee runners (Christian Yelich and Blake Perkins) ran on the first pitch after getting on base. When was the last time a Cleveland player did that?

When Myles Straw pinch-ran for Tyler Freeman (who went from 1st to 3rd on a wild pitch earlier in the game, but…) in the 8th on Sunday, it took him two batters to attempt to steal.

Now, we are sure some will say the Brewers had two runners picked off. Our response would be that’s the risk you have to take if you are going to run, and again, with the Guardians’ lack of pop, they need to be aggressive on the base paths.

Cleveland is very effective in taking the extra base. They are 5th in the AL in doubles and 2nd in triples. And they go first to third on base hits with the best of them.

We don’t know why the Guardians have stopped stealing since the first month of the year. It’s odd to be sure. Is it a fear of having a runner thrown out? Is it trying to minimize wear and tear on players?

It is probably more apt to say the Guardians are a very good baserunning team rather than a team that likes to steal. We say, why not be good at both?

Does The Guardians’ Front Office Succeed In “Big Trades”?

The other day we talked about the possible trade of Cleveland Guardians’ starting pitcher Shane Bieber. One of the reasons some folks say the Guards should deal Bieber is that they always do well in these types of trades.

Do they? Let’s take a look at the last three major transactions the Cleveland front office has made.

When evaluating the move, we aren’t going to focus on the performance of the player the Guardians traded away, simply going to talk about the return.

The latest move was dealing Francisco Lindor to the Mets along with Carlos Carrasco for Andres Gimenez, Amed Rosario, and two minor leaguers, Isaiah Greene and Josh Wolf. At the time of the deal, we said the key for Cleveland was Gimenez, who turned into an All-Star last season, and seems like a very good player at the least.

Rosario is a journeyman, likely playing his last season with the Guards. He’s a starter here, but there has been plenty of debate as to whether or not he should be.

We’d give Cleveland a slight edge, mostly because Gimenez has emerged as a potential star.

Then we have the Mike Clevinger deal, which considering he was probably Cleveland’s third starter (behind Bieber and Carrasco) at the time of the deal, was a tremendous haul.

Two of the pieces acquired, Austin Hedges and Owen Miller, have already moved on. Josh Naylor has been excellent, an everyday middle of the order bat, and a team leader. Cal Quantrill is currently out with a shoulder issue, but he’s a solid third or fourth starter on a good team.

We have our doubts about Gabriel Arias, tremendous with the glove, but struggles at the dish. Perhaps another solid piece is coming in lefty Joey Cantillo, currently at AAA, but at the AA level had a 2.13 ERA in 93 innings with 134 strikeouts.

This was a big win for the Guards. They got an impact bat, and solid starting pitcher and possibly more to come in Cantillo

The other trade was moving Trevor Bauer in a three team move to Cincinnati. The return was Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, and two minor leaguers, pitchers Scott Moss and Logan Allen (not the one currently with the Guards).

At the time, we thought the deal was made more for the following season than it was for 2019, a year Cleveland won 93 games and missed the playoffs.

Just four years later, there is nothing left from this deal.

Reyes provided pop for two and a half years here, but we are sure the organization wanted him to be the middle of the order slugger the Guardians are still looking for. He experienced a drastic fall off in production last year and is currently with Washington at the AAA level.

Puig finished the season with Cleveland and moved on. We don’t think Terry Francona and he hit it off. Although he didn’t hit for the power that was expected (slugged just .423), he did get on base to the tune of a .377 OBP.

Allen was a solid prospect but had a 5.45 ERA in 69.1 innings with the Guardians. He’s currently with the Rockies organization and has a 6.70 ERA in AAA. Moss isn’t pitching in professional baseball to date this season.

The Guards certainly didn’t win this one.

Our conclusion? The Guardians have done alright for themselves in these deals but haven’t “killed it”. Gimenez and Naylor are big parts of the current team, with the former having the possibility of being a multi-time all-star.

Make no mistake though, the Cleveland front office has done a solid job getting back good players for potential free agents they have no plans to sign. However, they still haven’t received the slugger they seem to have trouble developing, nor have they received a top-of-the-line starting pitcher.

Is Guardians’ Patience Being Rewarded?

It hit us watching the Cleveland Guardians’ scintillating 10-9 multiple comeback win over Houston Friday night that it appears the 2022 edition of the Guardians may have returned.

And if they have, it’s a reminder that no matter how patient we can be as fans, and by the way most fans are not, the front office has more of it, and most times it pays off.

Terry Francona’s squad trailed after four innings by a 5-1 count against Christian Javier, who gave into the game with a 7-1 record for the Astros.

Quite frankly, based on how the season has gone, we were ready to file this one in the loss column. But Cleveland scored three in the fifth to get back into the game behind contributions from Myles Straw, Amed Rosario, and Andres Gimenez, three players who have had rough starts to the campaign.

There was a report that Will Brennan was on the verge of being sent back to AAA as the Guards headed to Baltimore and Minnesota for a seven-game trip.

Since then, the young left-handed hitter has gone 20 for 44 with a couple of home runs, 8 RBIs, and eight multi-hit games, and had the game winning hit on Friday. This has given the bottom of the lineup, a kind of wasteland for the first two months of the year, a kick start.

Early in the week, fans were expressing concern for the star of the team, Jose Ramirez, who was mired in a two-week slump. Well, he’s out of it now, crushing four home runs Thursday and Friday (three in the former game) and raised his slugging percentage to .494 and his OPS to 842.

We bet many casual fans of the Guardians wouldn’t realize that despite the offensive struggles Cleveland has had this season that Josh Naylor ranks fifth in the American League with 48 ribbies.

The question now is whether or not the offense can be sustained for the rest of the season. We don’t mean scoring 10 runs every night, but not reverting to the performance of April and May, when the batting attack was well below league average.

If it can, it could have a bearing on how long Shane Bieber remains a Guardian. The rumors are out there, but it will be interesting to see what the front office will do as currently Cleveland is just 2.5 games off the AL Central lead.

Yes, we know the former Cy Young Award winner’s velocity is down, and his strikeout numbers are as well. He also gives the team six innings per start and his ERA is a respectable 3.57.

With Gavin Williams on the horizon, there is a though the front office could move the veteran from a position of strength, but remember, management also wants to keep on eye on the number of innings Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Williams will pitch this season, and Bieber can help with that.

Plus, he’s easily the starter with the most experience on the staff, and that can be a help down the stretch.

We do have an issue with some of the players we see people coveting for Bieber. Several of those guys are in A ball. The Guardians won 92 games a year ago, so they are not looking for someone who will help them in 2-3 years, at least not as the primary piece in a deal.

If they deal for a hitter, they want someone who can help right now. Also, remember the philosophy of the organization is contact. They want players who have good contact skills and then teach them to drive the ball.

The schedule isn’t getting easier, but the Guardians are starting to resemble the pesky squad that one the division title. Let’s hope that continues.

Lots Have Gone Wrong For Guards, But They Are Hanging In

This season certainly hasn’t been easy for the Cleveland Guardians so far. The offense has sputtered, ranking last in the American League in runs scored per game.

They are last in the AL in home runs and aren’t really close to the team with the second least dingers, the Detroit Tigers (Cleveland has 23, Detroit 31). They don’t strikeout but are only eighth in the league in walks.

Terry Francona’s teams are usually second half teams and if the 2023 Guardians are going to make the playoffs and/or win the Central Division title, they will have to be that again.

The hitting did show signs of life over the weekend, well, at least Josh Naylor and Amed Rosario did. Still, the Guardians need Andres Gimenez, Josh Bell, and that duo to get hot over a period of longer than three games.

The Guards have had 28 of their 40 games decided by one or two runs, a whopping total and one that, if it continues will take a helluva toll of the bullpen and also cause ulcers for many of their fans.

Getting a few more players other than Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan contributing to the offense would certainly help in providing more than one or two run margins at times.

It has been tough for Cleveland to get come from behind victories this year because the bullpen hasn’t been able to hold opponents if they get out to an early lead. The relievers have given up 17 home runs, almost the same total as the starters (20), need we remind you the latter pitch a lot more innings.

The defense hasn’t helped either. The Guardians are ninth in the league in errors with 21, and defense has been more important this season because the pitching staff ranks at the bottom of the AL in striking hitters out, so more balls have been put in play.

The catching, a position viewed organizationally as a defense first spot, hasn’t been up to last year’s standards, allowing the most passed balls with five and the pitching staff ranks fifth in wild pitches. Last year, Cleveland catchers had just two passed balls and ranked fifth last in wild pitches.

In the past, the organization has sacrificed offense for defense, but if you aren’t getting the defense, why not take a look at Bo Naylor, hitting .256 with nine homers at Columbus and has a 925 OPS because he’s walked 32 times.

By the way, the last hit by a Cleveland catcher? Try April 29th.

Rightfield has become a large hole. Oscar Gonzalez hit .192 with just four extra base hits and was sent back to AAA. Will Brennan is hitting just .193 with five extra base hits, and is being platooned with converted infielder Gabriel Arias, who has struck out in 26 of his 61 plate appearances.

You have to wonder if Tyler Freeman is the next middle infielder to get a try in RF. Freeman has 11 big league at bats with four hits, including a double, and was hitting .329 (950 OPS) at AAA.

Despite all of these problems, the Guardians are sitting just two games below the .500 mark. Hopefully, Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale will be back by the end of May, adding depth to the starting rotation.

And let’s also hope what we saw over the weekend is the start of the offense being more consistent.

By the way, some easy wins would be nice for Francona and the coaching staff and the fan base.

Guardians Should Add Another Division Title

It’s finally here. If you are a baseball fan, it’s what you looked forward to since the last out of the World Series. You knew it was getting closer when spring training started, but now it’s here.

Opening Day!

When we were younger, the start of a new season held hope for a Cleveland Indians’ fan in the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s. We thought maybe this year we would catch lightning in a bottle and could get to the World Series.

Of course, that was a young, foolish thought. It wasn’t until 1995 that it happened, and really, despite our criticism at times of the team, they’ve been good more often than not since then.

We think the Guardians will win the AL Central this season, and perhaps last season’s surprising campaign can be the jumping off point for another run of post-season appearances. It’s a very young roster with a very strong farm system.

Besides the catching spot, currently being held by veterans until prospect Bo Naylor is ready, which should happen sometime this summer, the oldest Guardians are perennial MVP Jose Ramirez and newcomer Josh Bell.

Ramirez is simply one of the best players in baseball, and probably the most underrated. Recently, ESPN (yeah, we know) ranked him as the 13th best player in the game, which is ridiculous. There simply aren’t 12 baseball players right now better than Jose Ramirez.

In the last six seasons, he has finished in the top four in the MVP balloting four times and finished sixth in another year. 13th? It shows how little the people who cover baseball at the four letter network know about the game.

If Bell has an average season for him, say 25 HR and 90 RBI, it will lend some thump to a lineup that ranked 14th in the AL in homers last season. Although the Cleveland lineup did a great job producing runs considering the lack of power (6th in the AL in runs), having the ability to put a tally on the board with one swing of the bat helps.

The players to watch are Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan. Can they improve on last year’s numbers? They are 24 and 26 respectively, so they should still be on the upward path of their careers. If they do, they will put up special numbers.

A baseball mantra is a team can’t have enough pitching, and this has been the pillar of the Cleveland organization over the past 10 years. They’ve had three Cy Young Award winners, and one of them, Shane Bieber remains the staff ace.

Triston McKenzie’s injury puts a bit of a damper on the rotation, but if Aaron Civale can stay healthy, that’s a plus. The biggest question mark has to be Zach Plesac, who hasn’t been effective over the last two seasons.

By the middle of the year, hurlers like Gavin Williams (5-4, 1.96 ERA at AA and A) and Tanner Bibee (8-2, 2.17 ERA at AA and A) could be ready to take his spot.

We are particularly bullish on Williams, who has the profile of a workhorse ace at 6’6″ and 255 pounds. He fanned 149 batters in 115 innings last season. Bibee is no slouch in that regard, whiffing 167 hitters in 133 frames.

The bullpen is the most volatile part of any baseball team, but when the back of the ‘pen is anchored by Emmanuel Clase, that’s a reason to feel somewhat comfortable. Over the past two years, Clase has a 1.33 ERA and has allowed only five home runs in 148 appearances. He’s also only walked 26.

We never take for granted a winning baseball team in Cleveland. After 30 years of hoping to find a winning season, this is rather fun.

Not Many Guards Have Track Records

The Cleveland Guardians were the youngest team in the league last year and won the American League Central Division championship.

It is certainly great to see a young team do so well, because it is a portent of things to come, but it also means it is tough to project for the following season because very few Guardian players have a track record.

First, from the team standpoint, the last time the youngest team in baseball made the playoffs was 1986, when the Mets did it and won the World Series. They finished second in the NL East in ’87, and won the division in ’88.

They were runners-up in the division the following two campaigns, and then fell into the abyss falling all the way to 59-103 in 1993.

The 1970 Cincinnati Reds were the youngest team in the league and lost the World Series to Baltimore, then fell to fourth in 1971. That team featured Johnny Bench (22), Dave Concepcion (22), Bernie Carbo (22), and Bobby Tolan (24). Heck, Tony Perez was just 28 and Pete Rose was 29 that season.

Following that dip, they reeled off a ten-year span where they won six division titles, three NL pennants and two world championships.

Here’s hoping that’s the future for the Guardians.

There is an old saying in baseball that players will for the most part put on the numbers that are on the back of their baseball cards. The only players on the Opening Day roster for Cleveland that have established levels of performance are Jose Ramirez, Josh Bell, and Amed Rosario among the everyday players.

Even Andres Gimenez, who was marvelous in ’22, has only had one season of over 210 plate appearances, and you guessed it, that was last season.

While we believe a player like Steven Kwan has the type of skill set that will allow him to succeed at the big-league level, there is no track record for him.

And as for players with shaky strikeout to walk ratios, like Oscar Gonzalez and Gimenez, it remains to be seen if they can improve that ratio with more experience.

Even with the pitching staff there is uncertainty. If Shane Bieber is healthy, and everything points to that this spring, he’s the ace. And actually, we feel strongly that is Aaron Civale can stay off the injured list, he gives the Guards a good chance in his starts.

We love Triston McKenzie, but he’s one year away from a season with a 4.95 ERA and some issues commanding the strike zone. We are confident in him, but there is a bit of uncertainty.

Zach Plesac? The question mark there is well used. His last two seasons have produced ERAs of 4.67 and 4.31. And he missed time both years with injuries. And can Cal Quantrill continue to win games despite a low strikeout percentage.

The bullpen is the most volatile part of a baseball team anyway, and the Guardians are no exception. Emanuel Clase’s stuff is ungodly, and James Karinchak is well, James Karinchak, but can Trevor Stephan pitch like he did a year ago? And what about Eli Morgan, who struggled in the last two months in ’22.

We know one thing, Terry Francona will give everything ample time to play out, and he will drive us fans crazy doing it.

We believe this is the start of a period of success for the Cleveland Guardians, but with so many relatively new players to the big leagues, we have some caution as well.

Hard To Gauge What Guardians’ Young Players Will Do

The Cleveland Guardians surprised everyone in northeast Ohio and frankly in baseball as well by winning 92 games and the AL Central Division title last season.

That has their fans very excited for the 2023 season because, after all, with a young core of position players and pitching staff that had the 4th best ERA in the American League, why wouldn’t they?

They also seemed to take care of their weak spots in their lineup. The DH spot was a huge hole because Franmil Reyes collapsed, and the catching spot was completely devoid of any offense, as they signed 1B/DH Josh Bell and C Mike Zunino as free agents.

However, there is an old saying in the game that a player’s statistics will match those on the back of their baseball card, meaning players have track records, and usually they will produce close to what they’ve done in the past.

Unfortunately, very few Guardians’ have a history of performance because they are so young. Of course, we know Jose Ramirez, if healthy, will be in the mix for the AL MVP. He has finished in top five in the voting four times in the last six years.

And you know what you are going to get from Amed Rosario too. He going to hit around .280 with a 700 OPS, and he’s going to not walk much.

Even Josh Naylor has only one season with more than 250 at bats at the big-league level.

The newcomers have been around for a while, so you can figure Bell is going to hit 20+ home runs, knock in around 80 or so, and have an OPS around 800. Zunino will hit the long ball more often than the Guardians’ catchers last season, but he will strike out. A lot.

We would all like to be optimistic about the young players who had marvelous seasons in 2022, but the truth is, we don’t know what Steven Kwan, Oscar Gonzalez, and even Andres Gimenez is going to do in 2023 for sure.

That doesn’t mean they will not be productive in 2023, but it’s difficult to count on each player to meet or exceed what they did in 2022.

Because we are a big believer that future success is based on knowledge of the strike zone, obviously we think Kwan has the best chance for improvement. We think he learned as the season progressed to pick his spots in driving the ball, so we think his slugging percentage will improve and he could approach or surpass 10 homers. Still, that’s not his game, so it needs to occur naturally.

Gonzalez is the opposite of Kwan, not walking much, but as we have suggested before, maybe Gonzalez is the Cleveland version of White Sox’ Tim Anderson, a hitter who succeeds with a poor strikeout to walk ratio. Still, he’s a player to watch.

Gimenez was spectacular last season, starting the All-Star Game and winning a Gold Glove, but it was also his first season with more that 210 plate appearances. His strikeout to walk ratio isn’t good (112:34) and his on base percentage (.371) was high because he was hit by a league high 25 pitches.

As proof it can happen, look at Myles Straw. In his first full year in the big leagues, 2021, Straw hit .271 with a .349 on base percentage. Last year, his second season, he hit .221 with a .291 OPS.

We aren’t saying everyone will regress, and quite frankly, we think Straw will rebound and be much better next year.

We are saying it is hard to judge players without a firm track record. For the most part, the pitching staff has that. It’s the offense that is more of a concern.