Why Have Guardians Stopped Stealing?

When the Cleveland Guardians played the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday night, we heard the broadcast team describe both teams as “they like to run”. The Brewers rank 6th in the National League in steals, while the Guardians are 7th.

The reality is while Cleveland started the season running quite a bit, that has waned as the season has gone on.

The Guards stole 35 bases in March/April in the first 28 games of the year. Since then, they have played 49 games and have only stolen 22 bases. They’ve effectively stopped running.

Granted, they were very successful in the first month, being caught just seven times. In May, they swiped 13 bases and were caught just three times, so when they did run, it worked.

In June, they are just a bit above the break-even point, picking up nine bags, while getting caught on eight attempts.

Cleveland ranks last in the majors in home runs, so it would seem they better use the running game to their advantage because it is unlikely they will score with one swing of the bat.

Some of the lack of running comes from not being on base. The team’s two leaders in steals, Steven Kwan and Myles Straw have seen their on base percentage decrease since April. Kwan stole seven bags in eight tries by the end of April. He’s stolen just three in each month succeeding.

Straw pilfered eight bases in the first 28 games this year, but has stolen just two since, incredibly none since May 18th.

The two other Guardians who would seem to be able to put up big stolen base numbers, Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario have also declined in this category.

Gimenez stole six in March/April being caught just once, but has stolen just two bags since, while Rosario swiped five in the first month, three more in May, and hasn’t even made an attempt since the first of June.

We understand the hesitation in having Rosario run since he hits ahead of Jose Ramirez, but if Ramirez doesn’t get a hit, why not run then?

Jose Ramirez is also a stolen base threat, but we totally get him not running as much. Conserve his energy as much as possible. He’s that important to the team.

This weekend showed a difference in the philosophies between the Brewers and Guardians. Twice, Milwaukee runners (Christian Yelich and Blake Perkins) ran on the first pitch after getting on base. When was the last time a Cleveland player did that?

When Myles Straw pinch-ran for Tyler Freeman (who went from 1st to 3rd on a wild pitch earlier in the game, but…) in the 8th on Sunday, it took him two batters to attempt to steal.

Now, we are sure some will say the Brewers had two runners picked off. Our response would be that’s the risk you have to take if you are going to run, and again, with the Guardians’ lack of pop, they need to be aggressive on the base paths.

Cleveland is very effective in taking the extra base. They are 5th in the AL in doubles and 2nd in triples. And they go first to third on base hits with the best of them.

We don’t know why the Guardians have stopped stealing since the first month of the year. It’s odd to be sure. Is it a fear of having a runner thrown out? Is it trying to minimize wear and tear on players?

It is probably more apt to say the Guardians are a very good baserunning team rather than a team that likes to steal. We say, why not be good at both?

Does The Guardians’ Front Office Succeed In “Big Trades”?

The other day we talked about the possible trade of Cleveland Guardians’ starting pitcher Shane Bieber. One of the reasons some folks say the Guards should deal Bieber is that they always do well in these types of trades.

Do they? Let’s take a look at the last three major transactions the Cleveland front office has made.

When evaluating the move, we aren’t going to focus on the performance of the player the Guardians traded away, simply going to talk about the return.

The latest move was dealing Francisco Lindor to the Mets along with Carlos Carrasco for Andres Gimenez, Amed Rosario, and two minor leaguers, Isaiah Greene and Josh Wolf. At the time of the deal, we said the key for Cleveland was Gimenez, who turned into an All-Star last season, and seems like a very good player at the least.

Rosario is a journeyman, likely playing his last season with the Guards. He’s a starter here, but there has been plenty of debate as to whether or not he should be.

We’d give Cleveland a slight edge, mostly because Gimenez has emerged as a potential star.

Then we have the Mike Clevinger deal, which considering he was probably Cleveland’s third starter (behind Bieber and Carrasco) at the time of the deal, was a tremendous haul.

Two of the pieces acquired, Austin Hedges and Owen Miller, have already moved on. Josh Naylor has been excellent, an everyday middle of the order bat, and a team leader. Cal Quantrill is currently out with a shoulder issue, but he’s a solid third or fourth starter on a good team.

We have our doubts about Gabriel Arias, tremendous with the glove, but struggles at the dish. Perhaps another solid piece is coming in lefty Joey Cantillo, currently at AAA, but at the AA level had a 2.13 ERA in 93 innings with 134 strikeouts.

This was a big win for the Guards. They got an impact bat, and solid starting pitcher and possibly more to come in Cantillo

The other trade was moving Trevor Bauer in a three team move to Cincinnati. The return was Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, and two minor leaguers, pitchers Scott Moss and Logan Allen (not the one currently with the Guards).

At the time, we thought the deal was made more for the following season than it was for 2019, a year Cleveland won 93 games and missed the playoffs.

Just four years later, there is nothing left from this deal.

Reyes provided pop for two and a half years here, but we are sure the organization wanted him to be the middle of the order slugger the Guardians are still looking for. He experienced a drastic fall off in production last year and is currently with Washington at the AAA level.

Puig finished the season with Cleveland and moved on. We don’t think Terry Francona and he hit it off. Although he didn’t hit for the power that was expected (slugged just .423), he did get on base to the tune of a .377 OBP.

Allen was a solid prospect but had a 5.45 ERA in 69.1 innings with the Guardians. He’s currently with the Rockies organization and has a 6.70 ERA in AAA. Moss isn’t pitching in professional baseball to date this season.

The Guards certainly didn’t win this one.

Our conclusion? The Guardians have done alright for themselves in these deals but haven’t “killed it”. Gimenez and Naylor are big parts of the current team, with the former having the possibility of being a multi-time all-star.

Make no mistake though, the Cleveland front office has done a solid job getting back good players for potential free agents they have no plans to sign. However, they still haven’t received the slugger they seem to have trouble developing, nor have they received a top-of-the-line starting pitcher.

Is Guardians’ Patience Being Rewarded?

It hit us watching the Cleveland Guardians’ scintillating 10-9 multiple comeback win over Houston Friday night that it appears the 2022 edition of the Guardians may have returned.

And if they have, it’s a reminder that no matter how patient we can be as fans, and by the way most fans are not, the front office has more of it, and most times it pays off.

Terry Francona’s squad trailed after four innings by a 5-1 count against Christian Javier, who gave into the game with a 7-1 record for the Astros.

Quite frankly, based on how the season has gone, we were ready to file this one in the loss column. But Cleveland scored three in the fifth to get back into the game behind contributions from Myles Straw, Amed Rosario, and Andres Gimenez, three players who have had rough starts to the campaign.

There was a report that Will Brennan was on the verge of being sent back to AAA as the Guards headed to Baltimore and Minnesota for a seven-game trip.

Since then, the young left-handed hitter has gone 20 for 44 with a couple of home runs, 8 RBIs, and eight multi-hit games, and had the game winning hit on Friday. This has given the bottom of the lineup, a kind of wasteland for the first two months of the year, a kick start.

Early in the week, fans were expressing concern for the star of the team, Jose Ramirez, who was mired in a two-week slump. Well, he’s out of it now, crushing four home runs Thursday and Friday (three in the former game) and raised his slugging percentage to .494 and his OPS to 842.

We bet many casual fans of the Guardians wouldn’t realize that despite the offensive struggles Cleveland has had this season that Josh Naylor ranks fifth in the American League with 48 ribbies.

The question now is whether or not the offense can be sustained for the rest of the season. We don’t mean scoring 10 runs every night, but not reverting to the performance of April and May, when the batting attack was well below league average.

If it can, it could have a bearing on how long Shane Bieber remains a Guardian. The rumors are out there, but it will be interesting to see what the front office will do as currently Cleveland is just 2.5 games off the AL Central lead.

Yes, we know the former Cy Young Award winner’s velocity is down, and his strikeout numbers are as well. He also gives the team six innings per start and his ERA is a respectable 3.57.

With Gavin Williams on the horizon, there is a though the front office could move the veteran from a position of strength, but remember, management also wants to keep on eye on the number of innings Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Williams will pitch this season, and Bieber can help with that.

Plus, he’s easily the starter with the most experience on the staff, and that can be a help down the stretch.

We do have an issue with some of the players we see people coveting for Bieber. Several of those guys are in A ball. The Guardians won 92 games a year ago, so they are not looking for someone who will help them in 2-3 years, at least not as the primary piece in a deal.

If they deal for a hitter, they want someone who can help right now. Also, remember the philosophy of the organization is contact. They want players who have good contact skills and then teach them to drive the ball.

The schedule isn’t getting easier, but the Guardians are starting to resemble the pesky squad that one the division title. Let’s hope that continues.

The Rosario Dilemma

Last season, Amed Rosario was a key cog in the Cleveland Guardians winning the American League Central Division championship.

He was third in the league in hits with 180 and led the AL in triples with nine. He was a big reason the Guardians’ offense put pressure on opposing defenses. Along with leadoff man Steven Kwan and #3 hole hitter Jose Ramirez, the Guards would go first to third relentlessly with three speedsters at the top of the lineup.

Rosario isn’t an on base machine, because he rarely walks, but he hit .283 and had a .312 on base percentage, so he was effective where he was at.

However, the shortstop’s value as an everyday player comes from his batting average because as we said, he doesn’t walk, and he really isn’t an extra base hit machine either.

For example, last year Rosario slugged .403 about the same as Kwan. What makes Kwan a better than average offensive player was his .373 on base average, about 60 points higher than the man who follows him to the plate most nights.

FYI, Kwan’s OBP has dipped this season to .342.

The three seasons Rosario had an OPS+ of over 100 (that’s average), his batting averages were .287 (2019), .282 (2021), and .283 (2022). If he’s not hitting at around the .275 level, he’s a poor offensive player. Right now, he’s at 65.

Now you make think that’s true for everyone, but it’s not. Currently, Josh Naylor has an OPS+ of 109 and he’s batting just .253. But Naylor walks a bit more and has 16 extra base hits, making his slugging percentage .437.

The right-handed hitter currently has the worst OPS+ among Cleveland regulars, yes worse than Myles Straw (77), Mike Zunino (73), and Will Brennan (82). Another disappointment for the Guardians is free agent signee Josh Bell, and he’s at 92.

Cleveland lives with Straw’s below average offense (for how much longer, we will see) because he’s an elite defensive centerfielder, a Gold Glove winner a year ago.

Rosario is a below average defender. He ranks last on the Guardians in defensive runs saved, just behind Zunino. You can probably make the argument that of the shortstops currently on the big league roster, including Andres Gimenez, who played the position in the minor leagues, he’s the worst defensively.

That list would include Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, and Brayan Rocchio, who has played a pair of games there.

So what gives?

We realize many people will use the argument that Rosario is a close friend of Jose Ramirez, who lobbied for a contract extension for him last season, but we refuse to believe that’s the reason, management keeps writing his name in the lineup.

We think it’s the usual patience vs. stubbornness we see from the organization all the time. They believe based on the past two seasons, Rosario will get hot any day now, and the team will reap the benefits.

But that’s the problem with hitters whose entire worth is based on batting average and another problem with players who don’t have an idea of the strike zone. Rosario’s strikeout to walk ratio for his career is 607:136, he’s never walked more than 31 times in a season.

His walk ratio is actually up this year (5.8% compared to his lifetime mark of 4.5%), but his strikeout rate (22.3%) is also higher (19.9%). Pitchers usually figure out they can get these guys out without throwing strikes, thus the effectiveness wanes.

We aren’t saying to “run away” from Rosario, as Francona likes to say. However, we are saying perhaps it’s time to see what Freeman and/or Arias can do with increased playing time.

That Rosario can be a free agent after this season, doesn’t help his argument.

Lots Have Gone Wrong For Guards, But They Are Hanging In

This season certainly hasn’t been easy for the Cleveland Guardians so far. The offense has sputtered, ranking last in the American League in runs scored per game.

They are last in the AL in home runs and aren’t really close to the team with the second least dingers, the Detroit Tigers (Cleveland has 23, Detroit 31). They don’t strikeout but are only eighth in the league in walks.

Terry Francona’s teams are usually second half teams and if the 2023 Guardians are going to make the playoffs and/or win the Central Division title, they will have to be that again.

The hitting did show signs of life over the weekend, well, at least Josh Naylor and Amed Rosario did. Still, the Guardians need Andres Gimenez, Josh Bell, and that duo to get hot over a period of longer than three games.

The Guards have had 28 of their 40 games decided by one or two runs, a whopping total and one that, if it continues will take a helluva toll of the bullpen and also cause ulcers for many of their fans.

Getting a few more players other than Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan contributing to the offense would certainly help in providing more than one or two run margins at times.

It has been tough for Cleveland to get come from behind victories this year because the bullpen hasn’t been able to hold opponents if they get out to an early lead. The relievers have given up 17 home runs, almost the same total as the starters (20), need we remind you the latter pitch a lot more innings.

The defense hasn’t helped either. The Guardians are ninth in the league in errors with 21, and defense has been more important this season because the pitching staff ranks at the bottom of the AL in striking hitters out, so more balls have been put in play.

The catching, a position viewed organizationally as a defense first spot, hasn’t been up to last year’s standards, allowing the most passed balls with five and the pitching staff ranks fifth in wild pitches. Last year, Cleveland catchers had just two passed balls and ranked fifth last in wild pitches.

In the past, the organization has sacrificed offense for defense, but if you aren’t getting the defense, why not take a look at Bo Naylor, hitting .256 with nine homers at Columbus and has a 925 OPS because he’s walked 32 times.

By the way, the last hit by a Cleveland catcher? Try April 29th.

Rightfield has become a large hole. Oscar Gonzalez hit .192 with just four extra base hits and was sent back to AAA. Will Brennan is hitting just .193 with five extra base hits, and is being platooned with converted infielder Gabriel Arias, who has struck out in 26 of his 61 plate appearances.

You have to wonder if Tyler Freeman is the next middle infielder to get a try in RF. Freeman has 11 big league at bats with four hits, including a double, and was hitting .329 (950 OPS) at AAA.

Despite all of these problems, the Guardians are sitting just two games below the .500 mark. Hopefully, Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale will be back by the end of May, adding depth to the starting rotation.

And let’s also hope what we saw over the weekend is the start of the offense being more consistent.

By the way, some easy wins would be nice for Francona and the coaching staff and the fan base.

Sputtering Offense Plaguing The Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians’ offense started off this season much like they ended last season. Not a lot of home runs, but a lot of base hits.

After Seattle’s Luis Castillo, one of the best pitchers in the game, held them to four hits in the season opener, the Guards had nine hits or more in six of the next nine contests and drew at least three walks in all of them.

In the next 23 games, Cleveland has had nine hits in just six games, and drawn at least three walks in just a dozen of them. When you aren’t hitting home runs, and Terry Francona’s squad is last in the American League in round trippers, if you aren’t getting men on base consistently, it is tough to have people cross the plate.

The Guardians averaged five runs per game in the first 10 games, since then, they’ve scored just 70 runs, an average of just over three per contest. It’s tough to win any games at any level, when you are getting just three runs per night.

Cleveland was 6-4 after ten games, and just 9-14 afterwards.

Bill James contended if you had a .350 on base percentage and a .450 slugging percentage, you were a very good offensive player. Not even Jose Ramirez can lay claim to those statistics, although he is close, with a .371 OBP and a .447 slugging average.

The Guards only have one hitter getting on base at a 35% clip and that is Steven Kwan, who has a .358 on base average. Besides Ramirez, they don’t have anyone even close to the .450 slugging percentage. The next closest is Mike Zunino at .397. More about him later.

Looking at the Guardians from a WAR standpoint, Zunino’s slugging is about all he is contributing as once again, Cleveland catchers rank last in the AL in this category.

Guards’ pitchers were 11th in the AL in wild pitches a year ago, and they are 2nd this season. And the catchers are second in the league in passed balls behind only the White Sox.

Also, Zunino’s back up, Cam Gallagher is just 2 for 27 with a bat in his hand, with two RBI, both coming in the first week of the season in Oakand.

The next worst position this year for Cleveland is shortstop. Amed Rosario is a slow starter, hitting .177 in April 2021, and .211 in April 2022. This year was no different as he batted just .227.

However, his strikeout rate is the highest since his rookie season (28.7%), and he’s leading the team in grounding into double plays, which he did a year ago. He’s also leading the Guardians in errors with six.

Hopefully, Rosario will start to get hot in May and resemble the hitter he was last season. He’s never going to walk a lot, but he did have 180 hits last season, and with the new rules aiding the running game, his speed could be an asset.

Remember, the Guardians went through a 13 game stretch at the end of August through early September a year ago where they scored just 26 runs. Hopefully, they will come out of it any day now.

The starting pitching seems to have come along with the starters consistently giving the team at least five innings. That has lessened the burden on the bullpen, which is still leaking oil a bit.

You know what would really help the pitching? Getting some runs early and then adding on.

Shining A Spotlight On Plesac

The Major League Baseball season is still young, very young in fact. However, if you are a player with a poor recent track record, you still start the season with something to prove.

That’s the way we feel about Guardians’ starting pitcher Zach Plesac, whose first start on Monday didn’t go as well as he wanted, no doubt, and we are sure the coaching staff and front office were disappointed as well.

Plesac burst on the scene somewhat unexpectedly in 2019, after just 14 starts at the AA and AAA levels. That season, he made six starts at Akron, compiling a 0.96 ERA, and then was promoted to Columbus, where in four starts, he went 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA.

He made his major league debut in Fenway Park on May 28th, throwing 5-1/3 innings allowing just one run, and finished the year with an 8-6 record and 3.81 ERA in 116 innings.

The following season was the COVID shortened year, but Plesac pitched well, going 4-2 with a 2.28 ERA in eight starts. However, there was an incident where he broke the virus protocol by leaving the team hotel in Chicago after a Guardians’ win.

Since then, the right-hander has made 50 starts, going 13-18 with a 4.58 ERA, and that includes a 3-12 mark last season. Plus, he’s suffered self-inflicted injuries the past two seasons, both from letting his temper get away from him.

We figured when he broke a bone in his hand punching the mound in Seattle last August (it was done in a very good start), the front office would make a move during the off-season to give the pitcher a fresh start somewhere else.

But a move wasn’t made and the Guardians are trying everything to salvage him as a quality big league starter.

The Guardians seem to have a profile for their players. They like solid humans, who grind it out, putting the team above all else. We don’t know Plesac personally (obviously), but he seems like he doesn’t fit that mold.

Breaking the COVID protocol, injuring yourself twice, those things don’t exactly fit being a good teammate, and in his first outing he was visibly upset when Amed Rosario lost a pop fly in the twilight, a ball that could have given Plesac a scoreless first inning.

He gave up a hit to allow a run right after, and then came out in the second and basically gave up five straight bullets off of Oakland bats. Did his teammates show displeasure when he did that?

To us, he’s also become a bit of a nibbler, falling behind in counts and then having to make too good of a pitch.

It’s not the one bad start in 2023, it’s the last 50 starts that put Plesac on watch. With Triston McKenzie’s injury, the Guardians don’t really have an option to replace him in the rotation, but if he has more outings like Monday or when McKenzie is ready to go, he could wind up being the odd man out.

We are sure the organization doesn’t want to rush Gavin Williams or Tanner Bibee either.

Hopefully, Plesac can start his turn around Sunday in his next start. If he is to have a future in Cleveland, he needs to pitch better and be mentally tougher.

Not Many Guards Have Track Records

The Cleveland Guardians were the youngest team in the league last year and won the American League Central Division championship.

It is certainly great to see a young team do so well, because it is a portent of things to come, but it also means it is tough to project for the following season because very few Guardian players have a track record.

First, from the team standpoint, the last time the youngest team in baseball made the playoffs was 1986, when the Mets did it and won the World Series. They finished second in the NL East in ’87, and won the division in ’88.

They were runners-up in the division the following two campaigns, and then fell into the abyss falling all the way to 59-103 in 1993.

The 1970 Cincinnati Reds were the youngest team in the league and lost the World Series to Baltimore, then fell to fourth in 1971. That team featured Johnny Bench (22), Dave Concepcion (22), Bernie Carbo (22), and Bobby Tolan (24). Heck, Tony Perez was just 28 and Pete Rose was 29 that season.

Following that dip, they reeled off a ten-year span where they won six division titles, three NL pennants and two world championships.

Here’s hoping that’s the future for the Guardians.

There is an old saying in baseball that players will for the most part put on the numbers that are on the back of their baseball cards. The only players on the Opening Day roster for Cleveland that have established levels of performance are Jose Ramirez, Josh Bell, and Amed Rosario among the everyday players.

Even Andres Gimenez, who was marvelous in ’22, has only had one season of over 210 plate appearances, and you guessed it, that was last season.

While we believe a player like Steven Kwan has the type of skill set that will allow him to succeed at the big-league level, there is no track record for him.

And as for players with shaky strikeout to walk ratios, like Oscar Gonzalez and Gimenez, it remains to be seen if they can improve that ratio with more experience.

Even with the pitching staff there is uncertainty. If Shane Bieber is healthy, and everything points to that this spring, he’s the ace. And actually, we feel strongly that is Aaron Civale can stay off the injured list, he gives the Guards a good chance in his starts.

We love Triston McKenzie, but he’s one year away from a season with a 4.95 ERA and some issues commanding the strike zone. We are confident in him, but there is a bit of uncertainty.

Zach Plesac? The question mark there is well used. His last two seasons have produced ERAs of 4.67 and 4.31. And he missed time both years with injuries. And can Cal Quantrill continue to win games despite a low strikeout percentage.

The bullpen is the most volatile part of a baseball team anyway, and the Guardians are no exception. Emanuel Clase’s stuff is ungodly, and James Karinchak is well, James Karinchak, but can Trevor Stephan pitch like he did a year ago? And what about Eli Morgan, who struggled in the last two months in ’22.

We know one thing, Terry Francona will give everything ample time to play out, and he will drive us fans crazy doing it.

We believe this is the start of a period of success for the Cleveland Guardians, but with so many relatively new players to the big leagues, we have some caution as well.

Looking For A Bounce Back From Straw

A year ago, the outfield for the Cleveland Guardians was largely unsettled. Myles Straw, who came over from Houston in ’21 was entrenched in centerfield, but the other two spots were up for grabs.

We would bet most people don’t remember Amed Rosario was the opening day leftfielder in Kansas City, and Steven Kwan played in right after a great spring training forced the front office’s hand.

Oscar Mercado was getting time against southpaws and Josh Naylor was still in the mix out there as well.

By seasons’ end, it was pretty set, as the Guards had two Gold Glove outfielders in Kwan and Straw, and Oscar Gonzalez was called up and secured right field and was a post-season hero.

Will Brennan parlayed a tremendous minor league season (.314, 13 HR, 107 RBI, 850 OPS) into a September call up and post-season roster spot.

Straw wound up being one of the most criticized players on the Cleveland roster, mainly because he had three months where he was dreadful with a bat in his hands. He hit .178 (508 OPS) in May, .149 (412) in June, and .093 (222) in August.

That last month probably was what got Brennan the big-league opportunity.

In those months where the bat was really struggling, he seemed to be pushing everything to the opposite field, rarely even pulling ground balls through the left side.

With his speed, we would still like him to add the bunt to his offensive repertoire, if only to make corner infielders pinch in at the corners and thus create more holes.

In total, Straw hit .221 (564 OPS) for the season without a home run, but his incredible defense kept him in the lineup, and makes him the incumbent coming into training camp.

However, we are forgetting that Straw has not been that poor of a hitter since he came to the bigs. He’s also not Willie Mays either.

After Straw came over from Houston, he played in 60 games with Cleveland and batted .285 with a .362 on base percentage, which explains why Terry Francona put him in the leadoff spot to start the 2022 season.

For the entire season, 156 games played, Straw batted .271 with a .349 OBP, hitting four homers and stealing 30 bases.

And in April, he kept up what he did to finish the season in ’21, hitting .291 and getting on base at a 38.7% clip. And he finished strong as well, a .364 on base average in September last season.

We felt all season that Straw just suffered through a bad season in 2022 and he will bounce back this year.

He may not get back to the numbers he had in 2021, but if he can get the average up to the .250 range and mix in 50 or so walks, he will get plenty of playing time.

Of course, what the other three outfielders do will help determine the amount of at bats Straw will get too. Remember, neither Kwan, Gonzalez, nor Brennan have much of a track record at the big-league level.

It plays well for Brennan that he is a left-handed hitter, so he can get some at bats vs. tough right-handers in place of either Straw or Gonzalez.

Although we are optimistic about the Guardians’ outfield in 2023, it is far from certain on any of the quartet, including Kwan, whose rookie season seemed magical. Pitchers will start attacking what they consider weaknesses, and it is up to him to adjust if the moundsmen have some success.

But we also expect a much better year from Myles Straw. We are sure he is looking forward to putting his performance in 2022 in the rear-view mirror.

Hard To Gauge What Guardians’ Young Players Will Do

The Cleveland Guardians surprised everyone in northeast Ohio and frankly in baseball as well by winning 92 games and the AL Central Division title last season.

That has their fans very excited for the 2023 season because, after all, with a young core of position players and pitching staff that had the 4th best ERA in the American League, why wouldn’t they?

They also seemed to take care of their weak spots in their lineup. The DH spot was a huge hole because Franmil Reyes collapsed, and the catching spot was completely devoid of any offense, as they signed 1B/DH Josh Bell and C Mike Zunino as free agents.

However, there is an old saying in the game that a player’s statistics will match those on the back of their baseball card, meaning players have track records, and usually they will produce close to what they’ve done in the past.

Unfortunately, very few Guardians’ have a history of performance because they are so young. Of course, we know Jose Ramirez, if healthy, will be in the mix for the AL MVP. He has finished in top five in the voting four times in the last six years.

And you know what you are going to get from Amed Rosario too. He going to hit around .280 with a 700 OPS, and he’s going to not walk much.

Even Josh Naylor has only one season with more than 250 at bats at the big-league level.

The newcomers have been around for a while, so you can figure Bell is going to hit 20+ home runs, knock in around 80 or so, and have an OPS around 800. Zunino will hit the long ball more often than the Guardians’ catchers last season, but he will strike out. A lot.

We would all like to be optimistic about the young players who had marvelous seasons in 2022, but the truth is, we don’t know what Steven Kwan, Oscar Gonzalez, and even Andres Gimenez is going to do in 2023 for sure.

That doesn’t mean they will not be productive in 2023, but it’s difficult to count on each player to meet or exceed what they did in 2022.

Because we are a big believer that future success is based on knowledge of the strike zone, obviously we think Kwan has the best chance for improvement. We think he learned as the season progressed to pick his spots in driving the ball, so we think his slugging percentage will improve and he could approach or surpass 10 homers. Still, that’s not his game, so it needs to occur naturally.

Gonzalez is the opposite of Kwan, not walking much, but as we have suggested before, maybe Gonzalez is the Cleveland version of White Sox’ Tim Anderson, a hitter who succeeds with a poor strikeout to walk ratio. Still, he’s a player to watch.

Gimenez was spectacular last season, starting the All-Star Game and winning a Gold Glove, but it was also his first season with more that 210 plate appearances. His strikeout to walk ratio isn’t good (112:34) and his on base percentage (.371) was high because he was hit by a league high 25 pitches.

As proof it can happen, look at Myles Straw. In his first full year in the big leagues, 2021, Straw hit .271 with a .349 on base percentage. Last year, his second season, he hit .221 with a .291 OPS.

We aren’t saying everyone will regress, and quite frankly, we think Straw will rebound and be much better next year.

We are saying it is hard to judge players without a firm track record. For the most part, the pitching staff has that. It’s the offense that is more of a concern.